Personally, MJD looks like a mirror image of Marion Barber circa 2008. First year being THE guy who has in the past, leaned on the other half back as a change of pace. He also relies heavily on pass catching yards because he just isn't that dominant of a rusher. I worry about him tiring out down the stretch, so as a consensus top 5 pick, is he worth the risk?

I have MoJo #1 in PPR and 2/3 for non-ppr. Absolutely worth the risk.

40 TDs in 3 years without starting more then 5 games.

Jags just revamped their O-Line. Big things ahead for MoJo.

I like him, I took him #2(AP went #1) in a 1point per reception big money league this weekend...I am a little nervous given that he hasn't been the guy to get all those carries before, but he is a very special player.

His schedule is powder puff too, which shouldn't be overlooked.

I had him ranked #1 in ppr..would have taken him #1 if I had the pick, but I can still understand people wanting Peterson first.

I'd say given the scarcity of SURE THING running backs this season, MJD has to be considered one of the very best options out there.

He has no experience carrying the load, but you have to figure another 100 touches will only pad his already solid totals. He has no real threat to steal carries, and he has a nose for the end zone. Long story short I think the upside is extremely high (I could see MJD in the 1,800 to 2,000 total yards range, with 15+ TDs), and the downside (injuries aside) is something like a 1000 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards, 10 TD season. I'm not sure how many other backs you can set the low end of your expectations at around 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs.

Shouldn't expect a huge increase over last year. He will pick up a few more touches near midfield, which previously went to Taylor, but too many more. There will still be 10-20 touches per game by Greg Jones and Rashad Jennings, since they don't want to burn MJD out. Still, extra touches means extra opportunity to break long plays, which he's good at. He won't increase red zone carries, since he already got all of them before. Plus they added Torry Holt, a good goal line receiver who will steal a few short TDs on fades and play action. Overall I expect similar TD numbers for MJD (already among the RB leaders), with a few hundred more total yards. Add it up, and he's still top 3. And like posted before, he's one of the few sure things at RB.

What you're missing is how injured the Jags OL was last season. Even if the workload factors you describe are accurate, the more reliable OL should boost Jones-Drew's per-play productivity and give the team more red zone opportunities.

We must be watching a different player. MJD is my #2 an it's not close.

Meaning he isn't like AP who can take the rock between the tackles 20 times a game, he relies on catching passes out of the backfield.

Except this is how the NFL is evolving. There are very few "give them the rock" kind've backs now.

It's not about carries, it's about touches.

I've stayed away from him, I personally think he is WAY over rated. I think his ADP should range between 10 and 13, but I do admit, there is certianly potential for top 3 numbers ... I just don't like paying for potential that I see as such a question mark.

how many more guys are a safer pick?...i dont think there many

Who would you rather draft at No. 2 overall?

Outside of A.P. this year, just about every top back is a question mark.

Forte - Had a great rookie year but can he do it again?

Turner - Had a great year as the guy in Atlanta, but can he do it again?

D. Will - Had a great year last year, but can he do it again?

S. Jax - Can he stay healthy

LT2 - He's hitting the dreaded 30 years old this year, can he return to form?

C. Johnson - Great rookie year, can he do it again and he has LenDale stealing carries

See where I'm going with this? MJD in three years has missed one game and totaled 36 TDs while splitting time with Fred Taylor. The kid is flat out deserving to be drafted No. 2 overall. Of course, all of this is just my opinion. Take it for what its worth.

^

Everything that Dre just said.

Furthermore, I hope sooner then later the "overrated" sub-title gets changed. It's upset me all day.

Steven Jackson is ranked #2 on my board ... but my board is very different than a typical board.

So you don't think that drafting a player who has only played one full season in a five year career as paying for a potential question mark? I can understand that boards can be very different but I just don't get having S. Jax at No. 2.

I agree. If you are talking about ?s, S-Jax is just that.

With all that said, I don't think it's crazy to take S-Jax at 3. The potential is there.

MJD is a very good inside runner.

Eh, maybe I just think less of MoJo than the rest of you. My league isn't PPR, so that plays a big role, but I also have a few big concerns:

1) How many carries is he going to get? I'd guess 240.
2) Is his YPC going to continue it's downward trend? 5.6 to 4.6 to 4.2 to ?? I can see it falling to 3.9.
3) Put the above together and you get 240 carries for 936 yards.

1) How many receptions will he have? I'd guess 67.
2) What will his YPR be? I'd guess it stays steady at 9.1.
3) Put the above together and you get 67 receptions for 609 yard.

The above makes him a 1500 yard back, which is nothing to sneeze at, but it also doesn't justify #2 overall unless he puts up massive TD numbers, another thing I think you'll see regression in.

Again, this is all my personal opinion, but I want no part of MoJo this year, I think he is an overvalued player stuck on one of the worst offenses in the league. Count me in the camp that also doesn't believe in Garrard as a top/mid teir QB and doubts that Holt can frontline a WR core anymore. Give me SJax, Forte, Slaton, Westbrook, Pierre, and a handful of other RB I'd rather have. I feel the jump everyone's expecting from MoJo now that he's the #1 isn't going to be nearly what you're all hoping.

I got MJD with the 4th pick.
If I'm not mistaken, last year was Michael Turner's first full season
as a starter? 17 TDs. (And only 6 receptions.)
not bad.

After the draft on Sunday, I checked his stats in PPR for 2008, and he was ranked 4th, behind Deangelo, Forte, and Turner.

Now, he is the only back in the top 18 backs, that did not top 200 carries...So you have 3 guys just above him, and 14 guys well below him, who all topped 200 carries!!!

That is crazy, when I first saw it, I was like whoa...So he got 180 less carries than Michael Turner and only finished 1.2 points behind him in a 1point ppr league.

So unquestionably, he is the #1 pick in PPR leagues, and it's not even close...The stats surprised me, but made me feel good for selecting him with the #2 pick.

I got him with the #4 pick and was as giddy as a school girl in my PPR league. Turner went ahead of him, I just can't understand that. They are nearly the same player except MJD catches about 70 less balls on the season.

If Turner is going above MJD in a PPR league, you need to find a more competitive league.

One bad apple doesn't always spoil the bunch.

Anyone have any updates? How long does a typical hip contusion take to heal, assuming no broken bones obviously.

Worst news I could have heard all day.

Wow! Without knowing how long a hip contusion would keep someone out, I hope he gets better soon for those with high hopes for him.

Eek.

Hopefully just a bruise.

if its a hip pointer he should be back in 1-3 weeks.

who is his back up?

I have nothing worthy of a reply, but it seems to me that this guy always has some kind of ailment. Maybe he's just wanting some easy time...Hate seeing anyones first pick take hits this early..

Greg Jones I think..

Doesn't contusion mean bruise?

Yes deep bruise-- they are typically called hip pointer contusion in the NFL and usually need about 1-3 weeks of treatment depending on severity so long as its not a fracture.

Anyone know what happened on the play?
Any site with info that he was pulled?

http://twitter.com/vitostellino/status/3745284484

I believe it is German for 'whale's vagina."

It does. And I am not sure what I was trying to say. Small bruise, perhaps?

Dang it!!! You guys are gonna make me get a twitter thingie yet...this is great tool to have. Nobody's reporting it that I can find (without watching the game)

Wonder what his backup has in the bag....shockingly he's prolly on every fa list..

A.P gained 900 more rush yards than MJD... MJD had 40 more catches and 400 more receiving yards.. A.P is still the better back in PPR format... A.P is also going for the single season rushing record every year.. can bust a 80 yard td run at any time, works out like a beast so I wouldnt worry about injury, has the best o-line in football, favre will keep 8 men out of the box, and he is working on his receiving game because he doesnt want to sit out... MJD is the smallest starting back in the league, will have to face 8 guys in the box because there is nobody else to respect, and there is no sure thing he can handle the load..
A.P #1 any format
Forte #2 PPR
SJax #3 PPR

Fail.

MJD LAST YEAR, Total Points in PPR = 280.90
AP Last year, Total Points in PPR = 261.50

AP was the 9th highest scoring RUNNING BACK in PPR. Granted, I still feel AP's top 3 material, but MJD definitely has more upside in PPR...

not if you take out the TD's... 14-10 in favor of MJD I like A.P scoring more but Point taken

He's 207 pounds and he's only 5-7. When you take into consideration his height he's actually quite big. Peterson is six inches taller, but only weighs 10 pounds more.

MJD over Forte at the 2 pick right?

lol sorry but TD's are taken in the equation with every player.

I agree MJD has more upside in PPR. But to me, there are too man questions with MJD. Can he handle the full load? For me, in any format, I'm still taking AP. Much safer pick and there isn't more of a sure thing than AP IMO.

Is Greg Jones or Rashad Jennings likely in line for more carries?

From what I can gather Jones will be the #2 but will more likely share carries with the others rather than take the load that MJD would.

Not much new news..I did see a link from a Jacksonville tv station that said he was in a boot in the hallway..Here you go.

http://www.news4jax.com/sports/20715966/detail.html

while i haven't seen the hit with my own eyes, i'm reading that it was a pretty nasty hit where his knee seemed to move in an unnatural way while his foot was planted... i'm hearing a lot of speculation that it could be an injury that won't be obvious until he undergoes an MRI, although his xrays were negative tonight (people are saying it could easily be a serious knee injury based on what they saw)... also, he was apparently irrate slamming his helmet to the ground as he walked off into the lockerroom (remember ronnie brown walked off the field in 07 only to realize that he had torn his ACL)... whatever it is, no one believes that it's just a bruise/contusion unless MJD is truly indestructible...

btw, this is pure speculation, and i have yet to see the play myself...

man this makes me nervous, draft is in two days, and Ive penciled him in for the #1 pick in PPR. now Im gonna have to choose between him and Forte...and not much time to disclose the real extent of the injury....

Well, at least you haven't already drafted & selected MJD like some of us (me) have... Coach Del Dumb-azz saying to the effect that MJD was pissed @ Smoot for the hit being the reason MJD slammed down his helmet seems a bit made-up...with my luck, he slammed down his helmet because he knew right away it was a serious injury. I know this is football, and stuff like this happens, but WTH was MJD even doing on the field in the final damn pre-season game?

you should know by tomorrow after he undergoes the MRI... JAX will be very forthcoming with the results if they're positive, but they will likely be a bit hush hush if the results are more serious than a bruise/contusion/sprain...