Anyone else starting to get a little goo-goo-gaa-gaa over this guy for the upcoming season? The stats..

in 26 1/2 minutes a game last year he went for: just about 16,7,2 with over a trey a game and almost a steal and block...

looking at his split stats from last year..the two months where he got 30+ mins a game he averaged a whopping 20,7,3 with just about a steal , block and trey a game!

..now look at his situation in Detroit..they just paid him out, so you can bank on at the very least 32 mins a night! This guy is almost a lock for 20,7,3 a night with just about a trey, steal and block a night! ...That has to be near his bottom! He finished last year in yahoo ranked at 60 and has a pre-rank this year of 61..this is based off a 26.5 minutes a night last year!! Come on yahoo! where are you guys ranking this guy for this year? Im thinking he is a solid 4th round pick? Am i missing something?

Or now that he's got his big contract he could put it in an envelope, slap a stamp on it, and mail it in.

He has to much pressure to not at least put up big numbers this year..dude is so talented its scary..i think he comes out this year and goes nuts..shows he is worth the dough, THEN he packs it in! NO WAY he does that off the bat right??

For some reason he has a reputation of not being a hard working player.

When he was in Toronto he was a fan favourite, he gave it his all when he was on the court and worked hard in practice. I do not see him mailing it in this year.

Larry Hughes says hi

totally unwarranted conclusion

hmmm... i'd say it's warranted. i don't see how you can discount the argument that, if a player gets his big contract, he might not try as hard.

I think you have it right. Look at that team. It used to be that the ball went through Rasheed on every offensive possession. Now what? Ben Wallace splitting time with Kwame Brown and Chris Wilcox at C? They might go small very quickly, playing two PFs rather than the dung heap they have at Center. Wilcox is the pick of the bunch there, but it's not saying too much.

As for the PF position, Charlie V is backed up by Maxiell and Herrmann. Both good players, but not at Charlie's level. Bottom line is that he will get huge minutes. He will often be the only true big on the floor, which is a situation he thrives in. He played a great two-man pick/roll game in Milwaukee. Everyone knows Skiles' weird substitution patterns were his problem.

Undisputed 35 minute starter? On a small-ball team, meaning they play fast possessions? What's not to love? I'm sold.

What can I say? I guess I'm sour on Villanueva because I drafted him a couple years ago very highly and he ended up laying an egg. Now I'm supposed to believe in him because he had one good season on an injury-ravaged team, then got a big contract? Thanks but no thanks.

you gotta look at his situation..look at that team, there are ZERO bigs who can score on that team..ZERO! Its all Villanueve.. he is going to get 15-18 shots a game, and 36 mins..just look at his career averages and splits..you put that talent on the floor with that much freedom and you are guranteed numbers around 18,6,3 with a trey , steal and block a night..thats top 50 numbers man.. who is in his way? no one.. he did get a big contract , but its his first year and my bet is that he shows up..no way he just packs it in in his first year wiht big minutes and big money..i could be completely wrong and he coudl pull a chris wilcox, but i think he is just too talented not to put up numbers with those minutes and freedom on the court this year..

I'm not saying that Charlie V will be a bust, my Hughes comment was just in response to someone claiming that just because you sign a big contract that you have to prove you are worth it. That he has too much pressure that he can't be a bust. But the numbers Charlie V put up in his contract year is a huge difference from his career numbers does cause some worry to me.

I'm actually semi high on Charlie V.

He was also just a bigger part of the offense last year than he was in the past ..so his numbers were naturally going to go up..and i think he will be even a bigger part of the Pistons offense this year..i just dont see the downside with this guy this year..

he got more mins and benefitted from the loss of Redd and Bogut. He became a focal point of the offfense and was able to prove what he could do when given mins and opportunities to score the ball. These reasons account for the increase in production (i wont deny that contract year didnt play a role either). Charlie has always shown that if healthy and given mins that he could produce decent numbers.

Again so did larry hughes in his days in GS and Was before his big contract with Clev. Clev thought he was going to be the perfect running mate for James, 2nd option then saw a pretty big decline.

wasn't the main cause of Larry Hughes downfall due to his injuries?
He used to be one of the premiere Steal-leaders in the league. and solid in scoring and assists.
And i can't recall off the top of my head where he got signed too, when it all started sucking for him, but i think it was after he left Washington. didn't he join the Cavs? he was supposed to be Lebron's "scottie pippen". it never panned out due to injuries, and probably chemistry.

anyway, I'm confident Charlie V will have his best season yet, this year.
Just like other people have said... it's hard for him to go wrong on such a depleted frontcourt team.
he could average 16 points, 8 rebounds. 1 trey, 1 block, 1 steal.

why not just say that all free agents that have now signed deals will suck. Sessions I can see really sucking now that he got a payday. Ben Gordon same thing. Hedo Turkoglu will regress as welll right? I mean cmon now....Not all or even most of these agents are going to end up like Larry Hughes.

Well Gordon has more of a track record, as does Turk. Sessions I could easily see sucking, but Session pay day wasn't a large one.

Gordon has about 5 years, 3 where he been playing at the level that he did in his contract year. I guess he had 2 contract years the last 2 years since he took the 1 year deal before this year.

Turk has had 5 years of really starting to base his numbers off, and only one year that really sticks out. I would assume his numbers will look alot like what the other 4 years average numbers are.

Charlie V had 3 average years, then boom in his contract year his numbers spike. That is why there is worry. That is why I'm saying his floor isn't 16/8/1/1/1. His floor could realistic be 12/6/.5/.5/.5

Was being sarcastic. All of those players will perform just fine.

I actually like Charlie more than the other guys listed there, but that's not the point. Gordon's being put into a mess that looks a lot like what AI had to go through, minus the attitude issues about coming off the bench and the subsequent fake injuries, hopefully. If Stuckey and Hamilton are there, along with Prince at SF, there may not be enough minutes for him to really shine. I wouldn't be too worried, he's shown an ability to produce off the bench in the past and Hamilton is reportedly on the trading block, but I'd like him a lot more if he was the only SG in town. As for Hedo, he's 30, and he just doesn't seem to have a game that is all that fantasy-friendly. Last year was a pretty good year for him and he finished ranked 117th by BBM 9-cat. That said, it's still a bad idea to assume that players will mail it in after receiving a big contract unless we have a great reason to think so. If the pistons are fighting for a playoff berth, Charlie will have extra motivation to succeed (0 career playoff games up to this point)

Anyway, for Villanueva, I don't see such a huge spike in production last year that it would be unrealistic to expect him to repeat or exceed it. Look at his per-36 minute rates (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/v/villach01.html) for his career, and you won't see a huge change. He sees a slight uptick in points and threes, which makes sense: he became the main scoring option on the team after Redd and Bogut went down. Nothing else seems to be too out of the ordinary, so his numbers in the other cats should be relatively stable. 1/1/1 with eight rebounds is only a small stretch if he gets 36 minutes, along with 17 points or so with solid percentages. That's enough to get my interest if he slips to the sixth or later.

I don't know what kind of league you play in..but thats more like a 4th-5th round numbers..or a top 50 player overall..17,8 with 1/1/1 and solid %S?? How many guys do that? 4-5? Thats top 50... are you saying you think he will be top 50 but you are not willing to pay the price?

I'm saying that if he can pull that off, he'll end up being top-50 or better, no question. However, 1/1/1 is optimistic, to put it lightly, and there is always the potential that he severely underperforms, too, as markdash and Denbo have explained so many times in this thread already. The bust potential balances out the top-50 potential at least enough to drop him to pick 60-something of most drafts, I would think. No way is his floor as low as denbo gave unless he gets 20 minutes a game, but he's definitely less of a sure thing than other options available at that point.

My prediction, I guess, is something like 17.5pts/8 reb/1.5 ast/.8 stl/.8 blk/1.2 3pm/45%FG/80%FT/2.0 TOs. Definitely solid, borderline top-50, but there is more risk there than there is with a lot of other players at that point.

If someone wants to draft him in the 4th round, I'll let someone else take that gamble. If I can get Charlie V in the 6th I'll be fine with that.

I hear ya..makes sense..Im thinking that they also end up moving Rip Hamilton at some point, and Charlie V then becomes basically the 2nd option on that team in scoring, behind Gordon..yeah maybe i need to temper my expectations a bit..i just look at some other names around the 4th-5th rounds and he just seems to have the most upside..

Bargs, Mo williams, Nelson, Salmons, Nene, Horford, and Rondo are all players drafted around the same area as Charlie V that I would take ahead of Charlie.

that not including the injury prone players of Baron and Redd who I think are drafted around the same area who I wouldn't mind taking a chance on

Can't argue that..i just keep looking at Charlie V's three months last year where he got 30+ mins a night for the first time in his career and none of those guys put up those kind of stats. They were nutty numbers... but the question is will he get those kind of shot totals in Detroit..thats the question..

Im taking charlie over Mo williams, Horford, and Nelson. Rondo will be gone by the 4th round. Bargs nene salmons and Charlie are all in a similar grouping.

I dont see why not. He also is going to be relied up to be the number one frontcourt rebounding option with that mess at the Center position.

19ppg-8rpg-.8steals-.9 blocks-44.8%fgs-1.5 ptm-80% fts-2.1 tos.......

Are people really drafting Rando in the 4th? That just seems to early for him. I personally see late 5th, but that's not the point.

Nelson and Mo Williams and Horford should all be in the same area. If you take Charlie ahead of them that fine too, but they are all the same range I personally think.

I'd actually take Charlie V over all of those guys.

Rondo would be a close call. I value his Steals ability(and Assists). It depends on who i've already drafted up to that point.
Because typically, Charlie should score way more points than all those guys(but Salmons would be close), and he'd probably rebound more than all of those guys. And he'd probably block more shots than all of them except for Bargnani. Also, Charlie is a good 3-point shooter for a big man.

i think it should be noted that guys like Charlie V and Salmons who don't kill you in any category are roto gold. there aren't many players like that and there should be a premium on them. the lack of steals is harmful, but it's not a killer.

Any player you are drafting in the 5th or 6th round should be helping your team more then it hurting....

ok, but that's not what i wrote.

Not sure what you (another others for that matter) like about horford so much to place him in that cat with those others. With yet another scorer in the fray I expect his scoring to stay at the same stagnant level or even decline. The numbers are flat out mediocre. I'll take bynum, hawes, nene over him all day.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/4245

Low To solid blocks, FG% is good, rebounding is good, and ranked in the top 50 last year.

ranking are overrated. What the rankings dont tell you is that I can get a player that almost posts the same stats 6 rounds later in udonis haslem.

I wouldn't got that far..Haslem has no where near the amount of blocks and dimes..not on the same planet really..Horford gets 5x the amount of blocks and 2x the amount of dimes..thats a world of difference..

haslem a better ft shooter and less tos. we are nitpicking now. the point is haslem is a greater value later in the draft than horford in the 5th

sure just overlook the extra blocks, steals, blocks, rebounds, points that Horford is better in.

Just because he slightly better here and there. It all adds up. Horford is a solid in many places. That why he worthy of a pick in that range.

Im convinced that you like to argue just to argue

I'm not the one who saying Horford isn't worthy of a mid round pick because you think Halsem better value 6 rounds later, but don't really provide how. I don't see Horford numbers near Haslem unless you consider 75% production the same.

The difference of 1 point, 1 block, 1 rebounds, 1.3 assists .2 steals, and better FG% is a pretty big difference.

you go ahead and take Horford ahead of guys like Charlie and watch you squad struggle

We will have all season to trash talk.

Indeed. Im sure you will argue everyone's points even when there is a "gray" area all year like you normally do. Its the Denbo way..

Hey, I only state what I think. I follow BBM and rankings pretty closely. I tend not to reach for players, and prefer vets with proven track records over the upcoming stars for early picks.

I never said Charlie V will be a bust, I just say be aware of the downside and lets not start saying that his floor is a top 50 player and he a stud already.

I'm perfetly fine taking Charlie as a 6th round pick. I'm not ready to declare him as a 4th round pick as it appears that many others are already stating he is worthy of.

What a surprise, I agree with Denbo on this one.

Horford is a 4th round player. He's demonstrated this, proved it, and he can be counted on for that level of production. There's no change in team situation that would cause his stats to suffer, either.

None of these things can reliably be said about Charlie Villanueva.

go ahead and draft horford in the 4th round. I would draft him in the 7th (maybe) You really mean to tell me you will draft Horford over or on par with players like nene, Lamarcus Aldridge, paul pierce, monta ellis, boozer, david lee,...

i just dont follow that logic at all and I wont be convinced with rubbish references to basketball monster...

I would be drafting Horford in the 6th round. I said he has 4th round value. I'll take him in the 6th round. I'll take him ahead of Charlie V. Or in the same range as Charlie.

I like this.

I would definitely not take him in the 4th, he gave late 4th round value last year but his injuries hurt his value (54th cumulative), I would take him in the 6th though... ahead of Charlie V.

I would do that because of his ability to give you nice stl, blk and ast from the C position. When Horford was fully healthy (last two months of season) he was ranked 25th over 9-cats. I like Charlie a lot this season but not enough to take him over Horford.

here's the current projected Pistons lineup:
PG - Stuckey
SG - Rip Hamilton
SF - Tayshaun Prince
PF - Charlie V
C - Chris Wilcox
Bench - Ben Gordon

Charlie is clearly the go-to guy inside.
I really can't see how it can go wrong. It's all uphill, upside. The Pistons will suffer greatly without his production.
And to keep him happy, they should let him Tweet during games.

for what it's worth (according to BBM):

last year, 9-cat per game: horford 47th (67 games), charlie v 80th (78 games)
final 3 months, 9-cat per game: horford 28th (34 games), charlie v 44th (41 games)

i'd also say that horford is more capable of improving upon his numbers than villanueva since he's entering his 3rd season. just my opinion though.

is anyone familiar with Horford's injury history? just being more of a true big makes him more of an injury risk, but i'm not sure about specifics.