Everyone and their mother seems to want to hop on this train. People are taking him as high as mid second round. Its getting outta hand. Will he deliver the goods?

2nd round, hell no. 4th round sure. Late 3rd maybe. Early 3rd and you just reaching to far.

I hope someone in my league hops on that train in the second round.

I tend to agree. People are just reaching too far.

People that reach that much are just stupid people who buy into hype too much. Which is odd since I didn't think Lopez had that much hype.

plenty of hype. do some of the these mock drafts and watch what happens with his ADP.

Yesterday I saw someone pick brook over Pau and Bosh with the 11th pick in the 1st. ! !

Mock drafts with idiots with nothing on the line doesn't hold alot of water with me.

I tend to disagree. A lot of people actually use these mocks draft in a serious context to prepare strategie. Not everyone is a great gauge, but some/many actually take it quite seriously..

But all it takes one idiot to throw a whole mock draft off. One person who grabbing Lopez in the 2nd round, Rose in the 3rd round, Melo in the 4th, Griffin in the 6th round ect to make all other players fall a round later to make your team look super stacked.

People make mistakes in real drafts (and multiple ones at that). In my 300.00 league people make major mistakes every season.

So true. I've done maybe 12 Yahoo mocks (from each position) trying to figure out the best position to draft from and they've all been unsuccessful because of some idiot reaching and drafting the usual "overhype" suspects so early. Griffin, Rose, Lopez, Josh Smith, Anthony Randolph, Mayo, Zach Randolph.

Yahoo! has him ranked 29th. That feels a bit early to me; I would prefer something around #40, maybe a little earlier.

Guess what. Some people in your real money leagues are going to reach on some of those people.

i wonder how mock drafts would look like if there wasnt any pre-rankings for you to look at lol

I don't think I'd draft him unless he drops quite a ways down. At 29th he's ranked too high for my taste.

A few of the early RW forum mock drafts were like that, and they didn't turn out too badly, I don't think. I would like to think that we're above the level of your average fantasy player, but it still shows that we can manage pretty well without them. On the topic, I'm pretty sure Brook was reached for even in those drafts (thanks Code), although at the time picking him 36th seemed like a reach. Now it seems like he's unlikely to last even that long.

See I told you guys I didnt reach!

I was hoping to take him with my 3rd/4th pick. 45/46 in a 15-teamer. Not reaching?

suppose not

in a 15 team league, that is probably good value. I've seen him going in 20's which to me is crazy. That said, I don't think you'll get him in the 40's.

I did a High Dollar H2H points draft the other day, and he was drafted in the early 3rd round...... Now i like his potentail, but no thanks for me on taking him that early.....He's good, but he's not gonna put up Howard/Jefferson #'s.. His ceiling this year is somewhere around 18-10-1.5-2 blocks. He wont do much better, but could possibly do much worse. So even at his ceiling, you can get a C a notch below those #'s a full 5 or 6 rounds later... 3rd or 4th is too risky.

35ish is fine with me...

I don't see a whole lot of risk drafting B-Lo in the 3rd or 4th. IMO his is actually a very safe and conservative pick at that juncture. Guaranteed PT, a focal point of that offense with Carter gone, and no injury risk at this point of his career. I think his floor is 15/8/1.5, with great percentages/low turnovers.

So you guys are OK with taking Brooke Lopez at 35 but Derick Rose?!?!?

Not sure I get that one. (PS - Sorry to mix threads, but it just struck me as odd.)

This is one of those cases where fantasy value and real-life value do not coincide.

Derrick Rose is a much more valuable player in real life (no matter what Hollinger says) because he's a PG, he's young and he has insane upside. I think Lopez is much more of a "finished product" who won't give you 20 points and 12 boards; he'll never be confused with Dwight Howard, but he should be a very capable (near-All-Star level) center for years to come.

That said, what Lopez gives you is just more valuable for fantasy than what Rose gives you. Lopez is a shot-blocking fiend (1.8 per game last year) and had good rebound and FG% contributions. Hell, his 79.3% FT% was very, very good for a center. He's also fairly turnover-neutral at 1.8 per game. The things he does not do well are assists, steals and threes.

Rose OTOH has a good contribution in scoring, but other than that his line last year was pretty pedestrian. He only averaged 6.3 assists per game, which is good but not awesome. He also had pretty neutral percentages. He falls short in threes (0.2) and steals (0.8), two categories where point guards need to make a major impact. He also turned the ball over 2.5 times, which is worrisome.

If you want to project growth for Rose in some or all of these categories, that's perfectly fine, but unless he suddenly develops a long-range game, a knack for stealing the ball OR has a major increase in the other categories (think 20 points, 8 assists, 5 rebounds, 50%/80%) he won't be able to crack the top 40.

yup. pretty much. for reasons outlined by markdash above

He computes to be a Top 15 player in one of the leagues I'm involved in (cats include blks, FG%, drebs, AND orebs). Obviously, I'm not selecting him anywhere near that high but he's a sleeper pick for a league that is so heavy on big man cats.

Still, it's possible to get 16ppg, 1.5apg, 0.5spg, 2bpg, ~55FG%, 6 Drebs, 2.5Orebs out of him with the departure of Carter.

I think of him as a 3rd or 4th round pick.

19 pts at halftime today... not bad, not bad at all.

My league rewards Free Throws Made and Offensive Rebounds.... Im hoping to get him in the third round,... but i think he will put up 2nd round numbers..

How would you compare him to Horford for this year?

He's a cut above Biedrins/Horford, mostly because his percentages are both good and he blocks a lot of shots.

So in a league that does not count %, probably a wash? With Lopez's high block potential vs. Horfords experience?

Not a wash even throwing out percentages. With Carter gone Lopez will easily avg. 16-18 ppg, Horford 12 ppg if he's lucky playing with high volume shooters like Johnson, Josh Smith, now throw Crawford into the mix who never met a shot he didn't like.

I just dont see why people like Horford so much. He's a mediocre player with limited to almost zero upside. There is a chance his scoring drops even lower this year with those jackers on that roster.

Because he puts up numbers. Boring as he is, but he just puts up numbers. Its not flashy, it but it a bit here and a bit here and it all adds up.

For Horford, I think 10 p/g off offensive rebs alone. He gets steals and blocks and he is a pretty good passer. Personally, I think alot can be said about experience in the league. Not alot of guys can avg 10+ rebs. For me one year of Lopez is not really enough, but I agree his upside is big. I usually look for reliability in my first 4-5 picks and upside with my later picks.

Why the Horford hate? Here are some #s:

Rookie year (2007-08): 8th round value (#91)
Sophomore year (2008-09): 4th round value (#46)

I don't see why you think he has "almost zero upside." He has improved from his first to his second year, he's young (23), and he's the only relevant frontcourt player on his team (Pachulia stinks, Marvin isn't really a big, same with Josh Smith). Just because his marquee stats didn't increase from one year to the next doesn't mean he has no upside. His FG% went up a few ticks (huge), he cut his fouls (enabling him to stay on the floor longer), and he blocked more shots. These are all very relevant to fantasy value.

That said he's not going to catapult into the first round, but if you draft a team trying to catch lightning in a bottle like that you're probably going to end up disappointed. Teams that draft that way tend to end up at the bottom, staring up at teams that drafted guys with proven production. I could easily see him finishing in the 3rd or 4th round again, with a line something like 12 points, 10 rebounds, 2.5 ast, 0.8 stl, 1.5 blk, 54%, 72%. Unsexy, but extremely solid.

As we have talked about before, i'm not buying any of it. You can cite rankings and all that other nonsense. His scoring could fall with less shots available this. He wont get any better.

You dont win by drafting players that produce at their draft position. You win by drafting players that will exceed their draft position. Horford's upside is limited. He will play right at the numbers you mentioned. In my world thats not going to get it done. We both know by now we have dramatically different strategies for building our teams. I hope people over draft Horford in all my leagues so that players with more upside slip my way.

I think the "0 upside" comment has to do with his offense. Put simply, he has no offensive game. Lopez has serious post moves and a nice jumper, and could easily score 18+ppg in an offense that feeds him the ball. Horford, I don't think, will ever score over 15ppg, he just doesn't have the skillset. Then add in that Lopez blocks more shots...

You do know that everytime we talked about Horford we(Me and Markdash) have said we would draft Horford late 5th round expecting late 3rd early 4th round numbers.

Never have I, and I doubt Mark has said that we would draft him late 3rd round or early 4th. We just expect him to put up numbers there.

I've said about 100 times I would draft Horford at the end of the 5th round around pick 60.

im passing there and will take players that will outperform draft position with more upside. Im growing tired of the back and forth on Horford's value. Enjoy him in the 5th if you like, but i'm all set..

Horford is a solid 5th or 6th round pick.

I'd consider Lopez to be a questionable 3rd rounder as in too early but that is where you will have to take him if you want him it seems.

And conversely you lose by drafting players that DON'T produce at their draft position. A team that gets exactly what it expects from its players would probably do much better than a team of "upside" players.

Horford is at best a 6th round player. I wouldn't even consider him in the 5th round since it's a reach imo.

At most a minor reach. I have no issue with him in the 5th if other C's are not available.

i think brook in the 3rd is a solid pick, not value of course but it's solid. if duncan, pau, and al jeff are all considered in the mid-2nd then brook is perfect in the 3rd. of course everyone wants him later but that's not going to happen.

late 3rd seems early for me. Would people drafting Brook be drafting him ahead of Murphy? West? Brand? and Guards like VC/Kmart/Lewis/Harris/J-rich?

I guess I could draft Brook over J-rich and Lewis(only because he missing 7 games) Brand over Lopez I see, As for West I'm not sure.

I forgot to throw in the player I personally wouldn't take there but should be in the talk such as Pierce and josh smith.