My only point is autopick/pre-rank ENSURES that brand will never slip, while on the other hand, from my personal experience and observation, he can and will slip in a draft room with savvy managers and no auto picks.

If you are disagreeing with that, then I duno what to say. But thats what makes fantasy drafts so fun!

I would be very concerned with brand. He played poorly last season in the preseason and well all saw how poor he started the season before getting injured. He just doesn't look right to me. I would not consider him before the early 6th round. He just is too big of a risk to have any confidence in.

A few days ago after Brand had a good pre-season game everyone was super high on him (check the thread).

He had a bad game last night, and everyone is saying they wouldn't touch him before the 6th round. He's going to be a little up and down to start the season. He hasn't played in a very long time and he has never played with this team or this coach. His conditioning is likely a bit off as well as his timing and not having Andre Miller certainly doesn't help that.

However, he is the highest paid player on his team. The sixers stole him from LA to make him their franchise player. He's going to get a shot at being that. Maybe he can't pull it off, but what indication have we seen positive or negative? I doubt he'll put up first round numbers again, but I took him at the end of the 3 round in my 12 team draft and I fully expect him to out perform that spot.

Maybe his surgeries have ruined him, but I haven't seen anything in the pre-season to indicate as such.

We'll see what happens. His fg% and shooting have been awful this preseason. The boards and blocks also have not been consistent. The sample size is small, but it does raise very serious concerns about his effectiveness in my mind.

i think its looking like brand doesnt fit in with the sixers offense at all. i remember reading somethign that said when brand was on the clippers, he was so good because they allowed him to post up and take his defender 1 on 1, but the sixers dont want him to do that, the sixers want to run and play fast paced.

let's stop overreacting.
remember it is just a preseason game.
and he did have a solid preseason game a few days ago.
the real season is about to start in about a week or so, so let's see how he plays in his first regular season game before jumping ship.

Brand didn't post up with the Clippers. Even before Kaman, they ran more stuff in the low post for Olowokandi than Brand. Brand's early hallmark was offensive rebounding, he'd score on putbacks. Later he developed a face-up game highlighted by a 15 foot jumper in a pick-and-pop game with Sam Cassell.

Problem: running the pick and roll/pop requires a smart PG who can consistently hit a jumpshot, to force Brand's defender to help on the PG, leaving him (Brand) open. Dre Miller filled the former requirement but not the latter. I'm not sure Lou Williams or Jrue Holiday fill either at this point.

Brand's situation is a lot like what would happen to West or Aldridge were they to lose Paul or Roy, respectively.

that's what i'm worried about now, that they don't want him to post up.

btw, i took him in the 4th, 32nd pick. all the managers in my league are good and didn't autodraft.

The problem is that he played like poo in preseason games last years. Preseason games are important for players like Jefferson, Brand and Arenas that are coming off of injury. I have watched them all closely to see how they look to appropriately determine value. Brand is slipping further and further in my eyes......

That synopsis is entirely accurate and right on the money. Good post

but actually, who in the preseason has had consistently great preseason games other than Anthony Morrow and Channing Frye?

Those all seem like timing issue to me. Has he sat out because his Achilles is swelling up? Nope. Good, I'm happy.

This is my point about Brand being the franchise player. Brand is a great player and he will make some adjustments to his game (when he gets his timing down) to accommodate the coaches style. Brand is the highest paid player on the team and the key building block. The coach will make some adjustments to accommodate Brands style of play. It could take a month before they work out the kinks but in all likelihood, the will find a method that works best. That is what franchise players and coaches do.

It is possible that the adjustment do not work and either the coach or player needs to go, but we are a LONG way from that and Brand has certainly played a fast paced game a times in his career.

I don't care about other players. I care about players coming off of devastating and serious injuries.......

Brand may do well, but he will do well or crappy on someone else is team. I don't need to gamble on my 3rd round pick.

Bingo! Millsap is having an awful preseason yet no one is worried about him. As long as I don't hear anything about Brand being hurt, I'll wait until the season get underway to start worrying. He seems to be struggling with being consistent and getting to know his teammate/system. Understandable for someone who has only played in 37 games the last 2 seasons.

Millsap is not contemplated as a third or 4th round pick. Big difference

Alright, how about I point out Billups' poor preseason so far. Is that better? My point is that there are a lot of good players putting up poor numbers in the preseason. From what I've heard, the guy is healthy and pain free. He missed 127 games the last 2 seasons. Give him more than 7 preseason games to get his timing back.

that the difference between Brand and Billups. Billups isn't coming back from major injury while Brand is.

The poor pre season on top of coming back from injury(2 injury in 3 years) is pretty damn alarming to me.

Brand can very easily put up top 10 numbers if he fully recovered. He could easily miss 70 games and stink in the 12 that he does play. I have no idea. I rather not worry myself with that and just draft David West instead in the same spot.

the bottomline in my opinion is... Never base your predictions on the preseason.

when the regular season starts, the true stars will step up.
the "preseason stars" will step down.

If anything, that makes me more worry about Billups' preseason. Just joking. I understand what everyone is talking about. I don't think Brand will put up top 10 numbers, but according the Yahoo, his ADP is 38.4. In a 9 cat league, last year's 38th rank player was Duncan. His numbers were 19.3pt, 10.7reb, and 1.7blk in 75 games.

So the question could be, do you think Brand can give you those numbers this season? If so, taking him in the late 3rd/early 4th could be a good investment.

I went off in a tangent my last post, but you're right.

Brand is coming off an injury and is having a poor preseason.
Billups is injury free and is having a poor preseason.
Arenas is coming off an injury and is having a good preseason.
Durant is injury free and is having a good preseason.

Conclusion: Don't put too much stock into preseason

Billups isnt injury prone. What are you not getting here? Preseason, for players coming off of major injuries, is important in evaluating proper drat value. To ignore a previously injured player not playing well in the preseason is dangerous and not prudent. Period.

Naturally you say that as a Brand owner. I know secretly you are quite concerned. LOL

the huge difference is knowing exactly what you are going to get from billups when the season rolls around. when brand was healthy last year during the beginning of the season, he was horrible. he's older this year and has several injuries under his belt. comparing him to one of the most consistent players in the last 5 years doesn't really work

Wow, what you're saying must be true if you're willing to put a period at the end. Hey, if you want to determine Brand's value based on these meaningless preseason games, knock yourself out. I'm going to base his value on other factors, like his health and how long he's been away from the game. You're getting that?

Going into a draft I would like to limit risk on players I would be depending on. The difference in drafting Brand if he produces at what he can do vs drafting someone like Duncan or West at the same range I think I would much rather take safer choice.

The upside of Brand at the 3rd round doesn't seem to balance out the realistic downside risk that Brand should have coming off 2 out of 3 injury years and playing pretty damn sucky last year before he got hurt.

Honestly, I might have a "little" concern.
But seriously, I'm not gonna worry about it until I see what happens in the first few real regular season games.
Besides... aside from the last 2 preseason games, Brand did have a solid preseason game before that.
Last night, Brand only took 4 FG attempts in 23 mins of play. And the final score was 90-89, Wizards.
There's no reason for a vet like him to try and prove anything in the preseason.

No reason to hit the panic button.

Brand played like ish last preseason and it carried over into the start of the season. Anyone who watched those games last year before he got could tell you he wasnt the same old EB. The same trend is continuing this preseason with the added complexity of a new offense and coach. Im not sure why people would risk brand in the late second or third round with so many other viable options out there..Capeche?

Sorry but Elton Brand is the new Tracy Mcgrady high risk high reward but noway you take him in the 3rd or 4th round.

is this the opinion of the actual Skeets or just someone playing him on the message boards?

What are you talking about added complexity? He had the same complexity last year as well as new teammates, new conference and new time zone. Do you even know Brand's number at the start of last season? Before he got hurt the first time, he was averaging 17pt, 7reb and 1.5blk in 18 games.

And the reason some people are taking him early is because before he got hurt last season, he was starting to heat up. In his final 6 games before straining his right hamstring, he was averaging over 20+ pt and 10+reb while shooting over 51%. I rather base his draft value on those games where he played his normal minutes than these preseason games...Capisce?

I've got Booster and RIP right here with me teamshameless...

Son of Doomsday???
Waverider LIVES.
Adam Strange:Last so of KRYPTON
beware of the Oan effect
Seven Soldiers of Destruction!
ARMAGEDDON 2011???

cmon now. Those number you just cited are innaccurate. See Brands number below. The ppg number was 13.8 and the fg% and ft% was dredadful.

If you draft brand ahead of guys like David West and David Lee you will be making a mistake.......

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3324

Alright, I think we are just going to have to agree to disagree. You're right that Brand hasn't looking that good this preseason, but I'm not too worried and I'm not going to base his draft value on meaningless preseason games. Instead I'm going to put more stock on what he did last season.

FYI, those numbers I cited are accurate. Brand did not start off slow last season. He strained his hamstring in game 19 against the Lakers. In the first 18 games, he put up 17, 7, 1.5. Not too bad for someone who played 8 games in 07-08. More importantly, he was getting better. Games 13-18, he was over 20/10 and shooting over 50%. He final average looked bad because he really struggled when he came back from that injury.

Wasn't he rated around 170 last year??


EDIT - For those 19 games he was rated 105th.

I wouldn't be surprised if that's his ranking for the first month of this season. Hopefully he can turn it on.

Elton Brand owners.... never fear, Eddie Jordan is here.

Brand believes his struggles this preseason can be attributed to the inconsistency of preseason lineups and rotations and that he'll have an easier time fitting into the offense during the regular season, the Philly Burbs reports.

Recommendation: Coach Eddie Jordan has said that Brand has struggled to adapt to the offense, but that he (Jordan) also has the "wand" to call plays for Brand when he isn't getting enough touches.

I got Brand in the 4th round, 50th overall pick last night. Here are the bigs that followed, and when they were drafted:
Boozer (55)
Biedrins (56)
Okur (57)
Hilario (60)
Horford (63, and my pick in the 5th round)

Is Brand the best of those players? Probably.

I would take all of them before Brand, especially Boozer.

Why do you guys keep drafting guys on their decline? Because he put up awesome numbers like 3-4 years ago? When was the last time Brand put a season ending top 25 performance? Draft young and up coming studs, not old declining players. I like brand, but he just doesnt belong in the top 30 anymore, so don't draft him too high.

I agree with CoH. Brand has not played much or well within the last two to three years.

No reason to take him in 3rd or even 4th round imo. Too much risk and there are more reliable players to be taken.

Elton Brand is a steaming pile of dung.

Is it too early?

HOw the hell did anyone think it would work out for Brand when he was plugged into a run-and-gun team like Philly? With the amount of shot-ready gunslingers they have in that squad, he'll probably not reach 15 ppg, and Dalembert/Speights will put a big dent in his rebounding/blocks totals. I'm sorry but a 30-something year-old half-court player like Brand can't work in the Philly system. He would be a lot more suited to a team like San Antonio where he could be established down-low.

Now when he gets it in the post he gets double-teamed because teams know that Philly has no consistent 3-pt shooters (except Kapono). He also had a worrying amount of TOs last year. So yeah, he's a reach in any round before the 5th.

This is exactly what I was getting at in my last post. Brand will adjust. Eddie Jordan will adjust. Igoudala will adjust. Assuming he is still healthy, he is the kind of player you adjust your offense for. I haven't seen any evidence that he isn't healthy and given that he hasn't played in so long (with two DIFFERENT injuries) I can't see why people are saying he has too much mileage.

I think the risk on Brand is a lot lower than people think. The Sixers will exhaust every option before they allow him to fail. Those are the kind of players you want on your team.

So you'd draft a player in the 3rd or 4th with the hope that everyone on that player's team adjusts. This includes coaches and all the players that just made it to the playoffs without Brand. In fact, the team was better last year without Brand than with Brand record wise.

I'd rather take a player that has an established role and will not require the world to adjust for him to make his draft position viable.

Agreed, which is why Brand was a first round pick when his role was already defined. Now he is in a less stable situation, and he's been dowgraded. Makes perfect sense to me.

In terms of records, you have a very small sample size to go on and Brand was starting to play MUCH better right before his shoulder injury. I'm guessing by December, I'm going to feel very happy with the pick.

Except last year I did not consider Brand to be a first nor second round pick. This year I consider Brand closer to a sixth rounder as I'd rather just go with more rebliable players in in the first five rounds. Let's just say I have been burned taking players that have been injured multiple years in a row in the past and just stay away from these situations as much as possible.

I don't see Brand returning to his glory days even in the best case scenario though.

here's a recent interview from Elton Brand a couple days ago. Hear it right from the horse's mouth:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycpkLHF9wC4

well tonite, the Sixers are playing at Orlando, so Brand is gonna have to face off against Dwight Howard. atleast some of the time.
if Brand has a bad game due to being guarded by Superman, it's understandable and excusable.
but if Brandon Bass is guarding Brand, there's no excuse.