do you see Josh Smith as a steal in the 3rd round

i personally wouldnt draft Josh Smith until the 5th or 6th. If that! This can improve if...

A. He improves his free throw shooting
B. Works a little harder.
C. Works a little harder.
D. Stops being lazy
E. All of the above

If this guys hustles on every play as he did 3 or 4 years ago...blocks go up. rebounding goes up. FT% goes up. he is so god damn lazy that his free throws are even affected. Is it a contract year for him this year? That will be the only time i would roster this guy higher than the 5th or 6th round. Im even willing to bet anyone that he wont finish in the Top 60 in the overall standard 9 category Yahoo rankings when the season is done

I got him in the 4th and felt it was good value. 3rd is fair value i think

you gonna eat **** for drafting him so early. he sucks

Okay... want to explain that a bit? Do you think he going to regress even further then he did last year?

Will his blocks drop below 1.6 of last year? Because if he can return to any of those earlier years of 2.8+ blocks in the 4th round I'm willing to gamble.

Heck even if he just produces last year numbers he not that far outside the top 50

No way he's a steal. I would say he is RND4 guy that can be taken RND3 if you decide to neglect %FT.

Yahoo season ending rank #128. Now unless you play in a league with 2 Categories, BLK and STL. I would not draft him in the 3rd or 4th round.

And the year before that? I'm willing to chance a guy who was once in the past able to get 2.9 blocks 1.6 steals on 17 points and 8 rebounds.

I can't explain his drop in blocks last year, but I'm willing to give him a pass since he is young and Extremely athletic.

I understand his FT% is horrible, one of the worst in the league. And is a bit TO prone.

I understand avoiding him, but the upside is clearly there. Smith could rank in the top 10 or outside the top 100 and neither would really shock me.

2 years ago Horford wasnt a stud yet. 2 years ago you didn't have a ball hog like jamal crawford on your team. 2 years ago he wasnt a lazy bum. 2 years ago he got a fat contract. 2 years ago a.i. was top 15. lets play fantasy 2009-2010 here buddy.

Last year was a bad year, we can all agree. But, the previous year 2007-2008 Yahoo ranked Joshy #22. The potential is there. He has the ability. As a previous poster said, he can lose focus for huge chunks of time. But if you look at those first three games of the season last year he averaged: 14pts/10.7reb/3stl/3.3blk.

I'm not saying he could've kept that up, but he was showing promise. However, he got injured, and the argument can be made that he was never himself after that.

I got him in the 4th since I took D How in the 1st (I play H2H 12 teamer). I'm extremely happy that I got him there, and have NO regrets.

I don't know why ppl hate on him so much? He has a career average of 2.4 blks a game! Last year only two players averaged more than that: DHow and Birdman. I'm not expecting 07-08 numbers, but I think it's reasonable to project: 15/8/1.5/2.5. And that is WORTH the 4th round selection plus leaves room for upside if he actually takes his talent seriously for a stretch possibility of 18/9/2/3!!

He said he wants to become the DPOY this year, hopefully he is motivated!

I see a bounce back though, I don't see any of those guys taking his shots really either. He will get his.

Agree completely...

This also is encouraging...

http://realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/622..._all_star_team/

Talk is cheap. Bynum wants to be all star. Iverson wants to win a championship (in Memphis lol). You cant expect him to come out and say, hey i got paid so now I'm gonna be lazy. ofcourse he going to say i want to be DPOY. But you have to know peoples qualities. Josh Smith is a lazy bum who gambles for STL and BLK. He been gaining weight each year too. He not the high flier he was a few years ago.

I've been a Smoove fan since he came into the league, but I'm passing this year. He burned owners big-time last year.

It's one thing if you're injured like a Brand or Arenas, it's entirely another when a player simply decides the game is no longer worth his effort. Unlike another player who took the same attitude last year - Amare - I don't see any evidence that anything is changed in Atlanta, whereas Phoenix is pledging to return to their old SSOL style. Mike Woodson is still there, and any kissyface he and Smith are doing in the offseason is a smokescreen.




Really? I think Jamal Crawford would take shots from Kobe if they played together, let alone Josh Smith.

Jamal will dribble dribble dribble xover xover fade-away 3. And then Joe Johnson will be like wtf you doing Jamal, don't you know this is MY CONTRACT YR? Then he will dribble dribble and shoot a half court 3. Then Mike Bibby will come in and try and show them HIS range. Mike woodson will tell Horford and Smoo to go get the rebound. Horford is the type that will do it. Smoo will be like f*** this. I'm not going to play defense. Just watch.

Well obviously when a new player comes to a team he doesn't take shots from any one player. I see most of Crawford's shots coming at the expense of JJ/Bibby.
You think Smoove is going to take less than 12 shots this year? I will believe it when I see it I guess.



Wow, very insightful!

werd

You going to compare the drop in fantasy game from AI who is like 35 vs Smith who is 23?

I agree Smith is high risk. But to completely dismiss that he could bounce back is a bit crazy.

Ballhog or not I could care less about about Smith scoring ablilty. I care mostly about Smith ability to get his blocks back to the swat team rate of 2 years ago.

I agree his play after he got his contract is scary. But 4th round I don't mind the risk. Hell I rather take this risk then the Arenas/Brand gamble.

Arenas and Brand will both be better than smoo this yr. 2 new coaches playing to their strength.

"once in the past able to get 2.9 blocks and 1.6 steals blah blah blah" - u said it! that was in the past

Josh Smith is lazy and overweight. Not to mention dumb! Put that altogether...and that is why he is also a TERRIBLE free throw shooter. CMON FELLAS...this guy all of a sudden became turnover prone and became a terrible free throw shooter...and these are the reasons why..

Lazy player means Lazy passes = Turnovers
Lazy and dumb player and doesnt care = HORRID Free throw percentage

do i have to spell everything out?

That will be seen. But Brand was god awful last year before he got hurt as well. Arenas is coming off a ton of knee issues. Brand has had 2 major season ending injuries in 3 years. I'm not even sure if they will play 82 game combined.

no, see i think some ppl here only look at boxscores and stats. they don't actually watch the game. if they do, they would have seen how fat this lazy azz has become last yr and this yr. he isn't the high flier he once was 2 yrs ago. in 2 years he will look like zach randolph. smoo needs to go to the same diet program place as Anthony Randolph.

you're talking about guys taken in the 3rd round compared to a guy in the 4th round... they better be better to warrant the earlier round, but that doesn't discount that Josh Smith in the 4th round is WORTH it. Isn't that the whole discussion? Not if Joshy is the best player in the world, but if he's worth a 4th selection, and I don't think there's much, if any, controversy of him being picked in the 4th round.

I think the Arenas and Brand comparison are completely fair and warranted.

yah he was. but now they running the Princeton offense. Princeton offense features power forwards and guards.

Fat Joshy Can't Jump

(for some reason can post an image...)

Sure looks fat and unable to jump to me.

Most offense do..

smoov burned me last year.. but i would not hesitate to draft him in the 4th this year.. his decline in blocks can be attributed to his high ankle sprain he suffered in the early part of the season 2.8 might be a bit much to expect but i fully expect him to return to around 2.2ish blocks.. as for his ft% hes never been as bad as he was last year and i think it definitely was more an outlier and he can at least return to ~70% this year... i guess it all depends on how you view last year... as the norm or just a season derailed by a painful ankle injury

I'll be targeting... I think last season was a fluke. But to each his own...

Yes.

12 FGA is a pretty fair chunk. Pau Gasol and Ray Allen only averaged 13 FGA. Guys who were under 12 FGA included Murphy, Lopez, Manu, Nash, Shaq, Crash, and Eric Gordon.

And Crawford's backcourt benchmate, Jeff Teague, is also a score-first guard. And Marvin Williams' floor game looks to be improving as well, as opposed to Smoove's regression.

2.2 blocks? are u serious? that's marcus camby stats. LOL! you do realize that Josh Smith gets his blocks when he moves his feet and hustles. he isnt 7 feet like Camby where blocks are a bit easier to come by. dont get me wrong, i love josh smith..i love his game...but only if he hustles and works hard.

For what it's worth he is averaging 11.5 shots/36 mins this pre-season. Maybe his shots will regress a bit... I would be very surprised if he averaged less than 11.5 though.

what is so "LOL"... lets see not including last year which he had a significant high ankle sprain which he missed more than a month..but such and injury wouldnt cause him to have lingering pains and play tentatively right cuz thats not possible
his blocks in the past 4 years before last season... 2.0 (rookie), 2.6, 2.9, 2.8.. so no.. 2.2 is not an overestimation for josh smith...u do realize he has a very good wingspan/standing standing reach and ridiculous leaping ability to go along with it right?

oh and camby has avgd well over 3 blocks in 4 of the past 5 years so your wrong there too

Oh my god... 1-10 from the free throw line tonight and the fourth hasn't even started?! Good sweet jumpin jesus... for his sake (and the rest of the team) he better hope he's done for the night

I'd be very disappointed with Smith if he didn't average at least 1.5spg/2.0bpg this season, considering that most of us are taking him because of those two statistics and have to deal with his FT% and TO's.

However, because of his athleticism if he can get his head on right and stay healthy - there is no reason to doubt that he can get back up to 2.5+ BPG as he did in the past.

By the way...considering how weak the top of the draft is this year 2.5BPG might lead the league.

blocks in the past 4 years? and? he got those stats because he hustled....

yes he has a nice wingspan and standing reach and leaping ability but it aint enough for him to be a Top 60 player and it aint enough to justify drafting him earlier than 4th or 5th round! If that!!!

the camby stat was a stat i got from last year's average....basically to show the difference in how camby gets blocks and josh smith gets blocks.

Please remember what the context of this thread is which was generated by the orignal poster..."is Josh Smith a steal in the 3rd round?"

ANSWER: HELL NO!!! NO WAY!!! NOT EVEN CLOSE!!!!!

You also are aware that Josh Smith was being considered as a late 1st rounder/early 2nd a couple years back right? He was routinely putting up 18ppg/8rpg/1.5spg/2.8bpg on a consistent basis. We all remember those lines that basically destroyed any competition in the SPG/BPG categories when J-Smoove went for 6STLS/8BLKS in one game. His BPG should normalize to the 2.2-2.5 BPG with him being healthy with the upside of him getting back to 2.8-2.9 BPG. All things considered, he isn't far away from those numbers this season as the only category that should take a hit is his PPG which should hover around 15-17PPG instead of the 18PPG he was putting up in years past (not as if anyone who drafts Josh Smith drafts him for points).

So yes, he is a steal in the 3rd round and in my mind an absolute robbery in the 4th round in a year where Centers that are locks for 2.0BPG are almost non-exsistant unlike years past. If Josh Smith gets up to +2.5BPG he can win you that category by himself on most weeks.

of course im aware of those stats from his glory years..but we are talking about this year.

wait wait wait...so ur saying that Josh Smith is a Top 36 player by the end of the year? just so we are on the same page. we are talking about his season total/end of year Yahoo ranking, right? please correct me if my math is wrong. 3rd round for a 12 team league is 36 picks, right?

i haven't watched any of the pre-season games but he seems to not be blocking shots but getting plenty of steals -- maybe he is concentrating on man defense instead of help.

after tonight's 1 for 10 from the FT line, i just traded him for Wilson Chandler and Augustin.

hope that works out for me...

1-10 from the stripe! lol!

his glory years??....are u serious?..what are we talking about hakeem olajuwon here... hes 23........you choose to look at the one year he played with a SIGNIFICANT injury that has direct effect on leaping ability and willingness to leap and you think somehow 2.2 blocks will be unattainable for him? other than last year that has not even been the BARE minimum for him for per 36 mins...

not saying hes in the top 36 is justifiable...saying hes not gonna get his blks is just absurd... and he was the only one even in the same stratosphere as marcus camby in the last 3 years not including the most recent one

Putting up that line with 45% fg 71% ft 3.4 ast put him around 35th overall on per game numbers. So he would have to have a bounce back year just to get him into 3rd round value. I could see him doing this, so I'd be tempted to draft him in the 4th or 5th round which is where players like Nene with top 35 upside are being drafted. I definitely wont be taking him 3rd round though.

i stayed away from josh smith this year.
he was too much of a gamble.
some guy in my league has both smith and baron davis on his team...could be great - could awful

Wow, 1-10 from the line eh? For some reason I magically felt he would improve on that FT% this year. Really glad I didn't draft him now. So strange to see a player get so much worse at shooting FTs in the middle of his career. I don't understand it.

1/10 is horrendous...but i punted FT's anyways. besides that decent line in 21+ min: 4/6 FG, 5 reb, 3 stl, 1 blk

plus it's encouraging to see him attacking the basket to warrant 10 trips to the line, even though he only made 1. there's no way he shoots 10% for the season... either way 10 FT attempts in 21 minutes is great! he'll was never a great FT shooter, and 65% of 10 FT is still an extra 6-7 points. I'll take that on a team where DHOW is gonna destroy my FT's anyways!

If I get 15/8/3/2 I'll be more than happy, and that's a conservative projection.

For all those thinking that 36th is not possible... We'll see by the end of the year where he's at. I think 3rd round is FAIR value (not a steal), but Joshy has enough talent and upside at age 23 to think he can make the necessary jump to the top 20 fantasy basketball players.

When all is said and done, I think those who "gambled" on Joshy will be smiling ear to ear enjoying his absurd stl/blk combo stats!

did i compare Josh Smith to Olajuwan? i said "HIS" glory years. "HIS" glory years is a comparison to himself! Geez! and of course i considered his injury last year. but that isnt the reason i think he isnt 3rd round value. it's his laziness. his non effort. he is an idiot! and he is overweight!

This is the bottom line: Josh Smith is NOT a top 36 player. Josh Smith is NOT a 3rd round player either. Yes Josh Smith can get 2.2 blocks per game...of course it can happen. But the debate here is his overall value. Blocks is just one of the factors. To consider Josh Smith a Top 36/3rd round player aint gonna happen when all is said and done!!! There are safer picks than Josh Smith. Im willing to put my house on it! ALL IN!

oh god, imagine having Dwight's 6-16 plus Josh's 1-10... that's 7- 26. lol!

good luck to all you Dwight and Josh owners.

no but referred to his "glory years" are they long past?.. NO hes one friggin injury plagued season removed...
and you've gone back and changed what you said earlier..you were stating that his ability to get 2.2 blocks this coming season as something entirely outrageous..now you keep mentioning his value... ive said 4th round all along




what are u basing this new found laziness and non effort on...and his overweightness..Josh Smith so fat he can't jump anymore.
looks the same to me

anyways im done posting here you're clearly on your own there with that opinion

In my mind, this year blocks are one of the rarest categories that you can attain in terms of elite totals. Most of the PF/C options that get blocks have regressed, dealing with injuries, or on a team with a lot of talent. There isn't one player besides Dwight Howard and Josh Smith that could say that they are a lock for 2BPG at the end of the season.

This is what makes Smith valuable in my opinion, he can be had anywhere between the 3rd-5th round and when teamed with a couple players that pitch in 1BPG can lock down that category for you in H2H match-ups and roto.

last year he was a 2nd round pick for most, and would of been my worst player from my draft but I did draft Shawn Marion in the first. most likely i'll try to avoid him but if you can get him in the 4th, he won't really be a bad option there if u are looking for some defensive stats. most usually go after him or Gerald Wallace for d stats but neither gave us their usual blocks stats last year., might be different this year. but with the topic's orignal question, i don't think he is a steal in the 3rd, but maybe late 4th