I like steals and three pointers!

...What do people think he does this year?

Beast

Steals? check. Three pointers? check. Percentages? ehhh....

With Battier and Scola as the only other offensive options, Ariza is going to be scoring 40 every night!

gerald wallace with 3's

Even Go Texans Go knows that Houston may not win a game all year with this lineup

i think they are a 7th seed...though i thought id be seeing alot of run and gun...havent seen much...refs also sucky tonite (but thats expected)

Rox a seventh seed? Over who?

Rox aren't going to make the playoffs this year, but they will play hard every night. I love Battier, Ariza, Scola, Brooks, Lowry... they have all the role players, but they no longer have the stars.

it appears he might be quite potent in turnovers as well..

That was quite the little stretch there.

He is what we thought he is!

7th seed.Man are you out of your mind?

Horrible night but luckily we have the warrior coming up to make things right.

Yeah he's doing exactly what was expected.

Yup, 12 pts on ~40% FG.

Overrated, like most ex-Lakers that sign with other teams. Something about seeing tape of a guy in purple and gold makes GMs hurl wads of cash at the Arizas and Fishers and Travis Knights of the world. If Mark Madsen wasn't a Laker early in his career, his NBA career would have lasted about 15 minutes.

Don't forget D. George and Turiaf!

This guy sucks.

Nothing but a role player on a great squad.

he has no chance of being a star anywhere else.

Will suck in Fantasy also.

I think he'll be worth where he was getting drafted but this is the reason why no one was reaching on him like mad bumping up his draft day value.

Ariza is what he is, people were too caught up with his age and "upside" because of what they saw in the playoffs when he was with the Lakers. Do you know easy it is to play with 3-legitimate post threats and the best perimeter player in the world? All you do is play hard on defense, hustle for loose balls, cut when your supposed to, and knock down open shots. Now he has to create his own shot, the threes are no longer wide open, and the game suddenly isn't so "easy".

Ariza is going to have TONS of turnovers and his FG%/FT% is going to be atrocious, but he will still be a good source for 3PTM and STL only because if no one else on the Rockets only him.

Oh the horror!!1

My worst fears coming to life. My line of resoning when drafting him "he can be the no.1 option for Rockets. Hell, he can get 16-18 pts, alot of 3s and STL. I really dont mind the terrible percentages if this comes true. However he can be a typical chucker with too much on his shoulders and then he will finish with 10-12 pts and terrible percentages and TOs. However, im willing to take the risk"

I had some much hope invested in this guy. Hopefully this is the acclimation period and things will get better.

He was on pace for a much stronger line early in the game (I think he had 9 points in the 1st quarter, but definitely in the 1st half), I wouldn't freak out just yet.

Nah, one game is a perfect sample size to freak out.

It makes just as much sense as valuing his performance during a 20-game playoff over that of an 80-game season.

Ariza was mediocre at best the entire season last year, fantasy-wise. All he was good for was Stl. Unless I"m in a very, very deep league, 9 pts and 4 reb with 0.7 3pm doesn't exactly cut it. He had a nice run in the playoffs because he was totally unguarded 80% of the time, and people thought he was suddenly awesome. You don't go from 32% 3s in the season to 48% 3s in the playoffs because defenses are paying attention to you.

One nice playoff run as a forgotten option actually means very little - see also: Jerome James 2005 playoffs, Troy Hudson 2003 playoffs. Rondo exploded in the playoffs, but no one's expecting him to average a triple-double this year.

Trevor is at 47% FG for his career. Way to take results from one game and run with that BS as if it were a definitive sample.

This is a guy that could approach 15 PPG, 6 RPG, 3 APG, and upwards of 2 steals per contest. He's got that type of upside if he gets 30+ minutes per game. He'll probably shoot around 45% from the field, and 72% from the FT line.

Umm the difference is Ariza is due to get more playing time this year in Houston then he did as a Laker last year. in LA he was getting 24 mins, while most myself included expect Ariza to get 33+ mins this year. Just the extra playing time should be enough to up his steals to close to 2 a game, and maybe boost his 3's up to 1 a game.

If he can score 13 points and 2 steals and 1 3 a game he will be gold for where he was being drafted, which is around the 8-9th round.

If you drafted Ariza in the first 3 or 4 rounds of the draft, your an idiot.... But for where he was drafted, he will be alright... He did score like 9 of the first 12 rocket points (or something like that).. The Blazers are a tough defensive team...He'll be fine..

I think I see something like 14 points, 1.3 threes, 2 steals a game. And I've usually seen him drafted in the 7th.

First, stats don't work in linear correlation with minutes played. I remember the calls to "free" Eddie Griffin and Stromile Swift based on their youth and awesome per-minute numbers, too.

Second, an increased role means increased defensive attention. Will 13 pts, 2 stl and 1 3pm still be worth it when it's accompanied by 40% FG and 2.5 TO? Last year Ray Felton put up 14 pts, 1.5 stl and 0.7 3pm, and even threw in 7 ast on top of it, and his value was still crushed by his poor FG% and TO. How impactful were those 2 cats? If you take them away, Felton ranks higher than Pau Gasol last year.

BubbaT, I have never agreed with you more...

Ariza was in the perfect situation last year by playing for the loaded Lakers. He is a career role player. If he is the focus of the offense, your team is in BIG trouble.

Spot on. I don't get the Ariza love. He was like a fifth option in LA hence the fg% and easy buckets. There are better players to be had in the 7th and 8th rounds.

exaclty, probably one of the worst sign in Rockets history

He's going to be well worth it in a year or two (if not this year already). He's an average to slightly above average in offensive efficiency, rebounds his position well, and plays solid D. He's also just 24 so he should improve over the life of the deal. Besides, he's making "only" about $7m each year over the life of the deal... do I need to remind you of some of the horrendous contracts that have been given out over the past few years? That's a bargain right there.

playing with who ??

Tmac is done and Yao, well....we'll see

What does it matter who he's playing with? I'm not saying the Rockets are going to win an NBA title, I'm saying he will be worth what they are paying him.

Yeah, he is only making around 6.7M/year for the next five years. If he can improve a bit and stay consistent it looks to be a pretty good contract.

If he puts up 2 steals a game and 1 3 then it will be worth it. You talking about a player drafted around pick 95 or so. I'm not saying he a top 50 player, but he good value there.

I'm not sure if I see his FG% dropping all the way down to 40%. He shot 47% for his career maybe he will shoot 44% but I highly doubt it will drop all the way down to 40%. As for TO I'm not sure where that will be but yesterday was a ugly sign.

Dear Ariza,

Tonight I would like: >1.5 steals, >1.5 threes, <4 turnovers, >3 rebounds, >14 points. A lot more shot attempts. anddddd a block?

You can do it.

Because he goes from being unguarded and shooting all wide open jumpers to having defenses play close attention to him and often drawing the other team's best perimeter defender. Ariza is going to be guarded by the Artests and Princes and Marions this year, while last year he was left alone. When Ariza tries to penetrate defenses are going to collapse on him, rather than staying home on Kobe, Pau, Bynum, Odom.

Ariza's best chance is for McGrady to come back.

That fg % could be anemic for ariza. I would guess less tha 43%

I don't know where some of you guys are coming from with these FG% predictions.

Last three years:

54%
50.7%
47%

Let's be reasonable here. 44% or 45% sounds about right.

Port is a tougher defensive team than what they get credit for. He is going to have bad nights.He isnt use to be the lead dog. But he will have good nights also.And in the end he will be well worth his draft place.

I got a feeling there wont be so much hate after tonights game. You cant judge the 82 game season on the first night.
Marathon, not a sprint

Well it is easy to have a high FG% playing on a team with Pau and Kobe.

I see him shooting 43%.

The fact that for his whole career he's been a roleplayer/glue guy? He's basically just had to knock down open shots and finish at the rim in his past roles where as now he has to actually create his own shot against defenses that have him marked down as the #1/#2 scoring option on their team.

Having a defense key on you will cause some problems in the FG%/TO category when you are a well established scorer, let alone a guy who has been a career-long role player. It wouldn't surprise me if he shot 38-42% this season, he's going to be asked to take at least 15-20 shots per game to keep the Rockets even moderately competitive and considering that he is no longer seeing wide open threes and dunks in surplus it isn't a crazy projection.

T-Mac theoretically should be back in December. It's not like Ariza is the only option on that team until T-mac comes back. I see increased roles for Brooks, Battier, Scola, and Landry. I don't see Ariza dipping below 44% on the year which happens to be his number as a rookie on a crappy Knicks team.

This Rockets team that he is on right now with the injuries to Yao and McGrady is probably one of the worst teams offensively ever assembled. Considering that Scola, Landry, and Hayes are all completely undersized PF/C options and Battier is basically a stand-still 3PT threat the only perimeter options for the Rockets are Brooks and Ariza.

HOU will probably have one of the lowest scoring averages in the league this season, if not the lowest.

Yup. Put it like this:

- with defenses keying on him, Kevin Martin only shot 42% last year, with 2.9 turnovers.
- with defenses keying on him, OJ Mayo only shot 43% last year, with 2.8 turnovers.
- with defenses keying on him, Kevin Durant only shot 43% in 2008, with 2.8 turnovers.

These guys all found out how tough it is to be The Man when you have little help, and defenses are stacking the strong side whenever you have the ball. And they're all vastly more offensively talented players than Ariza.

Heck, Artest was in Ariza's shoes last year with a healthy Yao and still shot 40.1%.

I'm not sure I agree with your logic, Bubba. Are you saying that when guys are suddenly thrust into a larger role, they shoot a poor FG%, but only for the first season?

We have no idea if O.J. Mayo is actually a good shooter or not; his 43% last year might be an accurate assessment of his ability. So might his turnovers.

Kevin Durant shot 47% last year, and I don't think defenses were keying on him any less than they were the year before.

Finally, I don't know how any of those guys apply to Trevor Ariza. They all shot at least 13.8 FGA per game in those seasons; Ariza shot 8 times last night and I don't think there's any possible way he gets close to 13.8 FGA/G. He's going to pick his spots.

almost 2 3pters & steals per game
throw in some rebounds and sprinkle a few assists in and maybe some blocks

nevermind the %'s or t0's. i'll take that from a 9th or 10th round pick

Last year OKC added a 15 ppg scorer in Westbrook, and Green improved from 11 ppg to 17. During Durant's rookie year the best other scorers were Wilcox and Szczerbiak at 13 ppg each, and they missed 20 and 30 games respectively. I would certainly pay more defensive attention to Westbrook/Green than Wilcox/Wally.


Ariza picking his spots may not be a luxury Houston can afford, sans Tmac. They're going to need him to help out with the scoring, 87 points is a recipe for disaster in today's NBA.

14 points in the 1st quarter tonight.... maybe he's got some game after all.