A little background ...

I'm an old guy. I have been in the same 16 team 5x5 auction-keeper for about 20 years. My rep in that league has pretty much always been all pitch/no hit teams. Its deserved, I love pitching and watch countless games a year simply to evaluate pitchers and their potential. I go to minor league games to watch specific pitchers. Its the fun part of the game for me.

That said, I have enjoyed some success in identifying pitchers who soon will be or are just realizing their potential. In a competitive auction keeper league, its all about getting talent - pitchers and hitters - while its still cheap (others haven't spotted the upside) which allows you more money to spend on the established guys who everyone will be bidding on. Even though I have won the league several times, its usually been great pitching supported by some hitters getting it together for a year or two which put me into the race.

Some disclaimers -

* The opinions will be my own and there are certain to be people who will disagree - some will likely do so vehemently!
* I have been wrong on pitchers many times so my predictions are no guarantee but I have had more than my share of success so maybe my evaluations will be of value to you.
* If I do not have a strong opinion of a pitcher, one way or the other, I will say so. I pay the closest attention to pitchers on my own radar so I may have not been overly impressed with someone and therefore don't track him all that closely.
* I may not have been in a position to evaluate deep, deep minor league sleepers so your best bets will be to ask about pitchers with at least some major league experience or those with at least some hope of having an impact - good or bad - in 2008 or 2009
* Keep in mind, I play in a keeper league and evaluations could be enhanced by future value (beyond 2008) and, we don't use holds etc which means a pitcher without the potential to start or close is not someone I would likely watch closely - however, I often grab players I think could step into a starter/closer role when the opportunity presents itself

There ya go. I will do my best this weekend (Friday-Sunday) to give my opinions of any pitcher someone asks to be evaluated. Please understand, I am not trying to position myself as some roto-pitching expert or anything like that. I know the majority of roto players focus heavily on hitting and their strategy includes trying to find some solid pitching in the middle rounds of a draft so they don't have to spend loads of cash or high draft picks. Maybe I can help uncover some real value.

Maybe this will be a popular thread and people will enjoy reading the discussions it generates. Maybe it will be a bomb - I guess we'll see. Just don't take it personally if I rate your brother/favorite player/best friend a non-prospect with no upside

FYI FYI FYI - - - trojanmikey put together an index of pitchers covered or at least mentioned in this post. The following is that index for reference if you are looking for a specific pitcher (updated 4/30/08) Thanks trojan!

UPDATED AUGUST 2

Accardo, Jeremy - 24
Adenhart, Nick - 4,33
Affeldt, Jeremy - 19
Albaladejo, Jonathon - 25
Albers, Matt - 33
Alderson, Tim - 23
Aldridge, Richard - 15
Anderson, Brett - 18
Arredondo, Jose - 15
Arrieta, Jake - 29
Arroyo, Bronson - 18
Astacio, Ezequiel - 29
Aumont, Phillippe - 23,28
Backe, Brandon - 33
Bailey, Homer - 1,37
Baker, Scott - 7,27,42
Balester, Collin - 40
Banks, Josh - 38
Bannister, Brian - 7
Bautista, Denny - 23
Bazardo, Yorman - 29
Beam, T.J. - 28
Beaven, Blake - 20
Bedard, Erik - 6
Belisle, Matt - 12
Bell, Heath - 17
Below, Duane - 30
Benoit, Joaquin - 20
Bergmann, Jason - 11
Betances, Dellin - 18
Betancourt, Rafael - 18
Billingsley, Chad - 4
Blackburn, Nick - 22
Blanton, Joe - 3
Bonderman, Jeremy - 15
Bonser, Boof - 3
Bowden, Michael - 41
Boyer, Blaine - 26
Brackman, Andrew - 28
Braden, Dallas - 3
Bray, Bill - 13
Broadway, Lance - 22
Brown, Andrew - 13
Broxton, Jonathan - 11
Buchholz, Clay - 3,42
Buchholz, Taylor - 16
Buckner, Billy - 12
Buehrle, Mark - 7
Bullington, Bryan - 11
Bumgarner, Madison - 17
Burgos, Ambiorix - 8
Burnett, A.J. - 33
Burres, Brian - 33
Burton, Jared - 13
Bush, Dave - 16
Cabrera, Daniel - 3
Cahill, Trevor - 13,40,42
Cain, Matt - 6
Campillo, Jorge - 37
Capuano, Chris - 19
Carlyle, Buddy - 4
Carmona, Fausto - 4
Carrasco, Carlos - 24,41
Carpenter, Chris - 42
Casilla, Santiago - 18,33
Cassell, Jack - 35
Cecil, Brett - 38
Ceda, Jose - 38
Chacon, Shawn - 37
Chamberlain, Joba - 3
Chico, Matt - 25
Clement, Matt - 25,37
Clippard, Tyler - 29
Colome, Jesus - 13
Contreras, Jose - 30
Cook, Aaron - 20
Correia, Kevin - 16
Cortes, Daniel - 23
Cox, Bryce - 10
Cox, J.B. - 24
Crow, Aaron - 20
Cueto, Johnny - 5,24,31
Danks, John - 1
Davidson, Dave -24
Davies, Kyle - 3
Davis, Wade - 16
de la Rosa, Jorge - 10
de los Santos, Fautino - 20
Delcarmen, Manny - 18
Dempster, Ryan - 31
Detwiler, Ross - 14,19, 38
Devine, Joey - 4
Diamond, Thomas - 2
DiNardo, Lenny - 9
Duchscherer, Justin - 23
Duke, Zach - 7, 8
Durbin, Chad - 19
Durbin, J.D. - 19
Eaton, Adam - 31
Egbert, Jack - 11
Elbert, Scott - 16
Erbe, Brandon - 6
Escobar, Kelvim - 8
Eveland, Dana - 12,26
Feierabend, Ryan - 13
Feliz, Neftali -30
Flores, Randy - 27
Floyd, Gavin - 19
Francis, Jeff - 6
Frasor, Jason - 13
Fukumori, Kazuo - 26
Gabbard, Kason - 3
Galarraga, Armando - 32,41
Gallagher, Sean - 23,40.42
Gallardo, Yovani - 6,42
Garza, Matt - 10
Gaudin, Chad - 3
Germano, Justin - 7
Ginley, Kyle - 38
Gonzalez, Gio - 1,2,8,11,41
Gorzelanny, Tom - 3, 8
Gregg, Kevin - 11
Greinke, Zack - 3
Guerra, Delois - 4
Guthrie, Jeremy - 6
Gutierrez, Juan - 24
Halsey, Brad - 29
Hamels, Cole - 6,7,11
Hammel, Jason - 4
Hanrahan, Joel - 23,42
Hansen, Craig - 9
Hanson, Thomas - 4
Harang, Aaron - 21
Haren, Dan - 7
Harrison, Matt - 9
Hart, Kevin - 27
Havensack, Devern - 11
Henn, Sean - 28
Hernandez, Felix - 6
Hernandez, Robert - 38
Hernandez, Runelvys - 39
Hill, Rich - 8
Hill, Shawn - 3,6,32, 39
Hinshaw, Alex - 37
Hirsh, Jason - 19
Hochevar, Luke - 4,42
Hoey, James - 26
Horne, Alan - 20
Howell, J.P. - 17
Hughes, Phil - 3
Humber, Phillip - 4,9
Hurley, Eric - 5,38,42
Hynick, Brandon - 24
Igawa, Kei - 24
Inman, Will - 16
Italiano, Craig - 36
Jackson, Edwin - 3
James, Chuck - 6
Janssen, Casey - 8
Jeffress, Jeremy - 8
Jimenez, Ubaldo - 1
Johnson, Jim - 36
Johnson, Josh - 5
Jones, Beau - 10
Jung, Young il - 15
Jurrjens, Jair - 9,33
Karstens, Jeff - 29
Kazmir, Scott - 6
Kendrick, Kyle - 15
Kennedy, Ian - 2,34,42
Kensing, Logan - 30
Kershaw, Clayton - 8,32,42
Kiker, Kasey - 27
Kobayashi, Masa - 16,31
Kuo, Hong-Chih - 9
Kuroda, Hiroki - 16,31
Lackey, John - 11
Laffey, Aaron - 19,35
Lannan, John - 32
League, Brandon - 25
LeBlanc, Wade - 31
Lewis, Jensen - 25
Lester, Jon - 1
Lincecum, Tim - 3, 6
Lindsrom, Matt - 17
Liriano, Francisco - 6,33,40
Litsch, Jesse - 15
Liz, Radhames - 10,42
Loewen, Adam - 19
Lofgren, Chuck - 7
Lowe, Derek - 20
Lowe, Mark - 27
Lowry, Noah - 10
Maholm, Paul - 18
Madrigal, Warner - 35
Main, Mike - 26
Maine, John - 6
Marcum, Shawn - 3
Marek, Stephen - 15
Marmol, Carlos - 6,32
Marquez, Jeff - 29
Marshall, Sean - 6
Martinez, Pedro - 6
Mason, Chris - 11
Masterson, Justin - 1,38
Matsuzaka, Daisuke - 11
Matusz, Brian - 20
McCarthy, Brandon - 4
McDonald, James - 5
McGee, Jake - 3
McGowan, Dustin - 1,6,39,42
Meche, Gil - 20
Melancon, Mark - 24
Meloan, Jonathan - 13
Mendoza, Tommy - 15
Meredith, Cla - 19
Meyer, Dan - 2
Miller, Adam - 7
Miller, Andrew - 7,36
Misch, Patrick - 3
Mitre, Sergio - 11
Moehler, Brian - 35
Morales, Franklin - 6,14
Morlan, Eduardo - 25
Morrow, Brandon - 2,5,6,19,37,38,42
Morton, Charlie - 29,39
Mosely, Dustin - 11
Moskos, Daniel - 20
Moylan, Peter - 25
Mujica, Edward - 25
Mulvey, Kevin - 4
Myers, Brett - 18
Neighborgall, Jason - 10
Neshek, Pat - 19
Niemann, Jeff - 4,32
Nieve, Fernando - 35
Nolasco, Rickey - 11,39
Nunez, Leo - 1
O'Connor, Mike - 4
O'Day, Darren - 29
O'Flaherty, Eric - 27
Ohlendorf, Ross - 25
Okajima, Hideki - 6
Olsen, Scott - 6
Olson, Garrett - 3,40
Ottavino, Adam - 18
Owens, Henry - 19
Owings, Micah - 3
Papelbon, Jonathon - 19
Parker, Jarrod - 15
Parra, Manny - 3,7,24,42
Parrish, John - 39
Patten, Troy - 7
Patterson, John - 17
Paulino, Felipe - 23
Pelfrey, Mike - 4,9, 38
Pena, Tony - 7
Penn, Hayden - 7
Penny, Brad - 22
Perez, Chris - 36
Perez, Oliver - 8,33,42
Perez, Rafael - 19
Perkins, Glen - 1
Petit, Yusmeiro - 10
Phillips, Zach - 30
Pineda, Michael - 35
Porcello, Rick - 15,20
Poreda, Aaron - 26
Price, David - 12,37
Prior, Mark - 19
Purcey, David - 8,35,41,42
Qualls, Chad - 17
Ramirez, Edwar - 10
Ramirez, Elizardo - 1
Ramirez, JC - 35
Rasner, Darrell - 36
Redding, Tim - 34
Reyes, Anthony - 1
Reyes, Jo-Jo - 4,34, 38
Reynolds, Greg - 34
Richard, Clayton - 41
Richmond, Jamie - 4
Ridgeway, Jeff - 24
Robertson, David - 42
Robertson, Tyler - 13
Rodney, Fernado - 25
Rodriquez, Henry - 26
Rodriquez, Wandy - 18
Roemer, Wes - 5
Rogers, Mark - 4
Rohrbaugh, Cole - 26
Romero, Ricky - 8
Rosa, Carlos - 38
Rowland-Smith, Ryan - 23
Sabathia, C.C. - 8
Samardzija, Jeff - 23,38
Sanchez, Anibal - 7,41
Sanchez, Humberto - 26
Sanchez, Jonathan - 12,32,42
Santana, Ervin - 3,39
Sarfate, Dennis - 24
Saunders, Joe - 3
Savery, Joe - 21
Scherzer, Max - 5, 33
Schroder, Chris - 23
Sheets, Ben - 26
Sherrill, George - 20,21
Shields, James - 6
Silva, Carlos - 16
Simmons, James - 20
Slaten, Doug - 27
Slowey, Kevin - 3
Smith, Greg - 31
Smith, Matt - 28
Snell, Ian - 7,8,42
Sonnanstine, Andy - 13
Soria, Joakim - 23
Sosa, Henry - 35
Sowers, Jeremy - 4
St. Claire, Cole - 29
Street, Huston - 6
Stults, Eric - 5,8
Suppan, Jeff - 25
Swarzak, Anthhony - 30
Talbot, Mitch - 26
Tankersley, Taylor - 6
Taubenheim, Ty - 27
Teheran, Julio - 20
Tejeda, Robinson - 37
Thompson, Daryl - 39
Threets, Erick - 24
Tillman, Chris - 24
Torra, Matt - 29
Troncoso, Ramon - 42
Tucker, Ryan - 39
Uehara, Koji - 13,41,42
Van Benschoten, John - 35
VandenHurk, Rick - 19
Vazquez, Virgil - 11
Veal, Donald - 29
Venditte, Pat - 39
Verlander, Justin - 14,42
Villanueva, Carlos - 16
Volquez, Edinson - 2,27,29
Volstad, Chris - 15,25,41
Wainwright, Adam - 5,33
Walden, Jordan - 26
Weaver, Jered - 6
Wellemeyer, Todd - 35
Westbrook, Jake - 10
Willis, Dontrelle - 6,8
Wilson, Brian - 18
Wilson, C.J. - 6
Wolf, Randy - 20
Wolfe, Brian - 13
Wordekemper, Erik - 20
Wright, Chase - 27
Wright, Wesley - 35
Yabuta, Yasuhiko - 27
Yates, Tyler - 27
Youman, Shane - 25
Young, Chris - 7
Zambrano, Carlos - 5

UPDATED AUGUST 2

20 SP's To Keep In Mind For 2009

John Danks.

Jon Lester

justin masterson

Homer Bailey

here here....pitching rocks!!!!

John Danks - I like him quite a bit. I think they are doing a nice job of bringing him along (something the organization has not always done so well with) and he could begin to step it up in 2008. It was encouraging to see them discuss limiting his innings late this year as he does seem to be wearing down more than I would like to see. Overall, I think he could be useful in 2008 and even better in 2009 if he stays healthy. I don't consider him an ace but he could be a useful 3ish starter when he peaks but the Sox may not be the best fit for him as they look to be going the wrong way overall.

Jon Lester - I was not a huge Lester supporter before his unfortunate illness but he does seem to have rebounded nicely and is probably back in the considerations set as a good option. He certainly will benefit from the support he will get with Boston's hitting and do like the fact that he stays focused for the most part - thats important in Fenway. Actually I put him in about the same "potential" class as Danks although Lester is perhaps a bit more advanced right now and he still has some hype attached which usually translates into him be overvalued by others.

Dustin McGowan...if he becomes more consistent, he seems legit.

Anthony Reyes

Justin Masterson - Like most "big" guys he has to master his release point. I have only actually seen him pitch once and my impression was that he could be hittable as hitters see him more. He has some pretty good stuff and can get it up there in the low to mid 90s if I recall but he looks to me like a better bet as a 7th or 8th inning guy. That could change as he gets more experience but right now I would rate him a "wait and see" for at least awhile longer. I'm just not 100% convinced his future is starting.

Homer Bailey - Absolutely deserves to be a high ranking member of one of the best classes of young pitchers to come along in years. However, I consider him over rated when compared to some of the other 2007 arrivals. Yes, I think he will be VERY good in time (probably not next year but further along in his career). The problem he poses is he will undoubtedly make the cover of one of the hundreds of Roto Preview mags next year and everyone and their brother will be after him which means he will be drafted too high or cost too much. If you can get him cheap in a long term keeper - by all means grab him but beware overspending.

Leo Nunez
Elizardo Ramirez
Glen Perkins

Dustin McGowan - Let me make this one short and sweet. Get him! He is on my roster and is a prized possession. He is still relatively unknown because he was ineffective last year following arm surgery. But, he was a number one pick and he looks better today than he did when he first arrived. His stuff is electric - he looks like he's throwing high 80s and the gun rings up 96 or 97 and the ball moves - command is consistently improving. The clock is ticking. He will soon be recognized by even casual players. Get him soon.

Anthony Reyes - Probably suffered from over stated expectations. I think alot of people thought he would jump in and be a 2 right off the bat but I can't say I ever saw that. He could be a bottom of the rotation guy and he does play for a decent organization but I wouldn't want to go into a season with him being any higher than 4th or 5th on my starting pitching depth chart and to honest I probably wouldn't pay/spend the pick it would take to get him in many leagues.

I forgot one more ha.

Gio Gonzalez.

Whew! Hot and heavy!!!!

Please understand, I am working today and I will do the best I can to cover every name brought up but you may need to check back later this afternoon/evening etc. I am REALLY enjoying this and I hope y'all are finding my take on these guys useful.

Ubaldo Jimenez
Franklin Morales

Thomas Diamond

Sorry... I forgot Edinson Volquez

Nunez, Ramirez and Perkins - Quite frankly I have not seen much that excites me about Nunez or Ramirez. Nunez has experienced some success but I think its pretty shallow. I do not project either of these guys to be solid starters or to close in the foreseeable future. They could be serviceable relievers maybe.

Perkins on the other hand does have a future. The Twins love him and they see him being a major part of their pitching in the near future - at least until he proves himself and they can no longer afford him. I think he is pretty polished for his level of experience but I think he could benefit from more time in the minors. I would rank him in the second tier right behind the more publicized arrivals for this year which means you might still get him cheap. Potetially helpful next year and a solid prospect beyond.

Thanks.

This is the best thread ever and I appreciate your insight

One more... Joel Hanranhan

Ubaldo Jimenez - I was hoping to get to see him the other day but it didn't work out Anyone that gets it up there in the high 90s and appears to have some idea of where its going (and herein lies the achilles heal) is worth watching to be sure. Obviously he has the Coors Field factor to overcome but that really should help keep his cost lower (I loved Francis and owners were scared to death of him because he played for Colorado). He's only like 22 but he has made an impression everywhere he's been. Worth a flyer even in Coors.

Gio Gonzalez - Ok, he's one I haven't studied too closely. I know the Phillies ranked him right behind Hamels at one time and that suggests he might have some future but I haven't seen him and it wouldn't be fair for me to try and rate him. Sorry.

Sorry folks - have to go to a meeting

I will get to as many as I can later this afternoon and, I may be up most of the night at this rate catching up LOL but I'll give it my best shot! Check back and I will get to them (I think I should have waited til I was off work to start this!)

I'm not going to increase your workload here, but this seems like a high quality thread in the making. Good stuff.

This is good stuff. Rotoworld should give him a hat or something

Dan Meyer.

Making his 1st major league start tonight.

Awesome thread, especially about my secret P McGowan...shhh keep it down would ya!! lol. I look forward to reading this thread more, as I too like uncovering pitching prospects.

Since Bogfella didnt know much about Gio....heres my thoughts on him. He's got a low 90's fastball with a "devestaing" curve (his bread and butter).....his change is being worked on and is obviously needed at the ML level.....I know the Phillies tried tweaking his mechanics, and he wasnt willing to work with Phillies coaches....got shipped to the Whitesox and they love the kid...have been moving him very slowly, and prob should be in triple a by now...He's dominating double a to the tune of 163K's in 131inn vs 51BB's....Apparentlty he does lose his composure when he gets knocked around as well....is projected more as a # 2/3 (fantasy 4/5) but i have never seen him, so i dont like making predictions for guys i have never seen...thats just silly imo...c2

Ian Kennedy and Brandon Morrow (mostly with him whether you see him as a starter or sticking in relief?). Awesome thread by the way.

To add to DM, a guy i have been hyping for quite some time, his mechanics are picture perfect.....smooth, easy delivery, and like Bogfella said, you expect the gun to say 87-88..instead it pops 97-98......an arsenal of pitches that should get stronger this offseason...will be one of my must haves for 2008....

well said Bfella

Boof Bonser
Micah Owings
Joe Saunders
Ervin Santana (will he ever be legit or is he another Matt Clement)
Shaun Marcum (legit or one year wonder) - typically failed starters become good relievers or closers; he is the opposite - failed reliever to become good starter (very rare - hence my question)

Ok, back for a bit ... Lets see if I can get a couple more in here real quick ...

Edinson Volquez - Real good stuff but he flopped badly when he appeared last year. I think he has some natural ability but I would want to see if he has acquired more mound presence before walking too far out on his limb. It could be that he simply wasn't ready when he debuted, or it could be he may not have the focus to be a consistent force - there are lots of guys who fall into that category. Lets rate him - the jury is still out.

Thomas Diamond - Nice one to hash over here. My personal opinion is he could still be a force in the coming years but his injury history could also make him a Rich Harden story. Depending on your league's rules he's a DEEP stash if that is possible. I LOVED the guy coming out of New Orleans but he's purely high risk/high reward stuff right now. A personal favorite I'll cheer for!

Joel Hanrahan - Ok, where did this guy come from? I hadn't sen him pitch until just recently (and that was out of cusiosity more than any reakl interest at that point). Nothing in his background suggests he could continue to perform as he has so far this year. When I saw him pitch he has reasonably good stuff but his command was so-so and I thought he was helped by the opponents not being all that patient. My guess, although still early to really say, he will enjoy some success (aided by Washington's park) his first time through the league but they will catch on and it may be hard for him to adjust when they do.

Also - a special thanks to csquared who bailed me out on Gio ... thanks!

Finally - a sincere thank you to those who have complimented the thread!!!! I am having a BLAST writing my views and look forward to the weekend!!! Stay tuned

no prob...i'm trying to think of a real good one for you...though it wont be an easy one! HAHA

I would really like to hear your thoughts on Shawn Hill. I think he may be underrated for the simple fact he pitches for the Nationals. Oh yeah, great thread and thanks for your time. Much appreciated!

Edwin Jackson
Daniel Cabrera
Zack Greinke
Tom Gorzolanny

Dan Meyer - Back about 2004ish the guy was a sweet consideration but injuries have taken their toll and he has not every regained the stuff he had when he was drafted. My rating would be ... longshot. I will have a look these first couple of times he pitches this year but I have serious doubts he will ever be a key roto guy.

Ian Kennedy - I like this guy alot! Stud potential although it may not be next year. He has great stuff and he always looks like he knows where his next pitch is going. You ever seen the guy that pitches like masters play chess? They make a move designed to set up an attack 4 moves further into the game. Thats how Kennedy seems to pitch and I love seeing that. He doesn't throw a pitch without intending for it to serve a specific purpose. Pick him up (the Yankees are trying VERY hard to avoid exposing him before he's ready but they can only wait so long).

Brandon Morrow - He's on my roster (maybe thats a hint LOL). Probably the exact opposite of Ian Kennedy. He has no idea where his next pitch is going and probably has the game narrowed down to ... throw harder, batter misses, next batter. I project him as a starter (and I really think the Mariners pray they will be able to trust him to do that someday) because he has the stuff to dominate through the order 3-4 times and thats why I grabbed him. No question of his talent - its ALL about command. If he truly finds it, he's Rich Harden with a firmly attached arm, if not he's Rickie Vaughn with no glasses.

have you seen guys like Ian Kennedy, and other prospects, or are you giving your analysis based on stats, and what you've read?

haha...well said

With non MLB pitchers, in many cases I have seen them pitch either in person or on tape. I will admit that when it comes to some of the guys I am basing my comments on one or two games I have seen. I also rely on two very good friends who live in AA cities (THE BEST PLACE TO EVALUATE POTENTIAL IMHO) and I live in a AAA city where I try to plan my attendance based on who is pitching for the visiting team. In Kennedy's case, I saw a tape of a couple of innings of a Trenton game that just awed me. Granted thats a pretty small sample but a guy can make my radar when he shows me something special like that.

thats awesome...i wish i could see a lot of prospects that i have interest in (kershaw, mcgee, price etc)

ps: if you know what to look for, 1 or 2 games is all you really need to see that "wow" factor as i like to call it..

pps: why do the yankees have 2 triple a teams?? columbus and scranton?? c2

Grrr another meeting but I haven't forgotten the other names requested including:

Bonser
Owings
Saunders
Marcum
E. Santana
S. Hill
Jackson
Cabrera
Greinke
Gorzelanny

I will get to those and others if they come up ASAP but it may be this evening.

bogfella,

Great thread - just the type of threads I love, though there are few of them on this or any other website. This is a thinking person's thread.

I have my own views, of course (been doing fantasy baseball since 1989, 18 years). Mostly I have done keeper, auction, NL-only 10-12 team leagues. The last 3 years I have gotten into perpetual keeper drfated leagues (and am in 2 of them - see my signature for those 2 leageus). Shallower leagues than my auction league, but still deep enough to be fun - and the perpetual keeper aspect makes trading and evaluations really fun.

In the 5x5 perpetual keeper leagues I have basically decided that pitching absolutely rules. In the 1st league I was in, I was able to build a staff with some good draft picks, and some lucky trades, and ceaseless vigilance on the waiver wire (only allowed 1 free agent move per week). You can see that I have Johan (drafted), Webb (trade), Hamels (free agent pick via a trade - demanded the 1st free agent pick that week as part fo a trade to get Hamels), Smoltz (drafted), Lincecum (free agent pick in December), and Marcum (free agent pick this year). I also just added An. Reyes as a fleyer for a few extra wins later this year, and for next season - he'd be my 7th best starter.

As for relievers, I have K-Rod (drafted), Todd Jones (free agent), Capps (traded Caopuano for him) and Corpas (free agent).

I do disagree with you on set-up men in 5x5 leagues. they can help as much as 1-start starters sopmetimes, in any given week - stand just as decent a chance for a win, and can get as many K's in one week as a 1 start starter - especially one with a bad match-up (fopr weekly move leagues, which mine are). But you want POWER arms as set-up men, and eitehr gusy who back up your top closer, or who have a shot at being a closer (that's is how I got Corpas) ... hence Broxton (trade), Shields (trade) and as I said Corpas.

I love to talk baseball, and maybe we could PM periodically (I will try to send a message, and if you get it you can check your messages, at the top of the page, on the right).

Pitchers? I'll take your opinions on:

Ian Kennedy (still available in the free agent pool)

Marcum (and I will return my view after I get yours, LOL!)

Welcome aboard (though I see you have 120 posts ... I just have not seen you in any of the threads I have participated in).

i dont think your looking closely enough...this board is full of great threads (like this)...reason why i hang here so frequently.....go check the minors thread...tons of great stuff like this...

Chad Gaudin and Dallas Braden, please.

great thread, enjoying your insight on these pitchers. I've got a bunch of young names I would love to here your take on:

Joba Chamberlain
Clay Buchholz
Lincecum
Gallardo
Hughes
Felix HErnandez

If you don't have time to do all of em, I'd at least love your opinion on the first 3 i listed. Thanks

My keeper contingent and farm system are both absurdly stocked with young arms--I share your interest (affliction?) in young up-and-coming arms. While I don't really NEED another guy, per se, I do like being able to deal from strength, and one guy I've had my eye on for a while now is Jacob McGee. Do you happen to know anything about him?

you are correct about the minors board - I do visit there. But though I liek the minors baord, and am in leagues where minor leaguers are permitted, still, in fanatsy baseball I still focus ion players who can contribute in the current year ... and one year out. Though I have a lot of roster spots (23 active and 7 reserve) in my perpetual keeper leagues, you cannot eats up more than one reserve spot with a completely useless player for an entire year unless oyur are rebuilding ... and soemtimes when you are contending, depending in inuuries you cannot even have ONE minro leaguer not liek to play in that seaosn on yoru reserve.

On the bench warmer page, which I do enjoy, it is hugely polulated with tarde talk mostly (which is fine, as far as it goes), and few people respond to free agent move talk - and aprt of that is the nature of the leagues the majority of people are in: Shallow, shallow, shallow (10-12 team 9 active hitters, 1 DL player allowed, maybe 2 bench hitters, and 9 pitchers, perhaps). In legaues like that *less than 30% of major league players, and sometimes as low as just 22% of major league players, on fantsasy teams) thoughtful contruictionfo teams is often not as required - and patience for a single bad week, or a singe bad start, is almost non exoistent. And the flourishing of H2H, which emphasizes weekly competitions, exacerbates this lack of patience (you cannot afford to lose even a week, sometimes). I prefer roto style, where it is a marathon, not sa series of sprints. And I rpefer deeper leagues, where you have to decide whether Willie Harris or Norris Hopper will have the more permanent job, etc.

zorshot,

On Marcum ... I would nto call him a failed staretr or reliver yet. He is still just 25. I have only actually watched him picth once - and he seems to really know how to pucth. What causes people to wonder about him are 2 things:

1) He lacks a power arm (low 90's fastball is actually rare for him); and

2) He picthed so poorly in his cup of coffee last year and early this year.

But look at his minor league stats: 339 IP, good ERA (maybe 3.50-ish), 332 K's, just 55 BB's. He KNOWS how to pitch, it looks like. I woul expect him to give up a few more hits than he has already, meaning his ERA should rise a little. BUT ... he has always been a strike throwing machine, with great control, and good movement and location on 3 pitches. That is more important often than just a power arm. I do not think he will be a #1, or even a #2 starter in thr majors. LT. But I think he has a potentially strong future as a #3 mahor elague starter, and would be an EXCELLENT #4 or #5 fantasy starter (i.e. as yoru 4th or 5th best starter in your fantasy rotation).

Kevin Slowey(I know he was up earlier in the year and got shelled, but 7 starts is nothing. id like to get your take on this guy)

Manny Parra(in the majors right now, but id like to get your take on this guys long term as a starter)


thanks in advance. this is a great thread and I appreciate your input as the more info I can get on pitchers the easier it makes my job on winning leagues.

its great to hear how much your a fan of guys like Mcgowan, Morrow, and Perkins. as they are ALL on my main dynasty league roster as well

Garrett Olson

Juan Mateo or Donald Veal if you know anything about them.

Alright ... back in the saddle here ... lets see if I can catch up

We'll start with Bonser, Owings and Saunders ...

Boof Bonser - Basically I think he's a decent 4th or 5th starter in MLB but I also think he is at or very close to his ceiling already. The Twins are not an offensive juggernaut and I don't see him being a sub 3.00 ERA guy, someone with a sparkling ratio or someone who will consisitently ring up loads of strikeouts. I'd pass or, maybe consider him for a situational starter possibility.

Micah Owings - Good arm and it looks like he will only get better. He's about 25 so its time for him to start showing MLB level capabilities and I have seen him pitch well so maybe he's getting closer to establishing himself. He's big - that often means inconsistent early on - but he has strikeout potential and could be getting really good at the same time some pretty talented D'Backs start making noise. I expect a solid year next year and even better in time. He's not a #1 but 3 or maybe, maybe 2 isn't out of reach. Definitely worth grabbing.

Joe Saunders - Doesn't look like more than a filler to me. He has pitched better this year but his stuff doesn't excite me and he might be a the west coast version of Boof Bonser with more run support. My guess is he ends up a spot starter and long reliever which makes him usable at times and a stretch most of the time. Back of the draft type in deeper leagues.