QUOTE (Slevin Kelevra @ Apr 15 2008, 08:07 PM)

1st) i won a lot of money last year betting on GS against Dallas
2nd) i don't see the connection between a 1st round playoffs and a last regular season game between Denver and a team full of SCRUBS like Memphis that doesn't care a s--- about that game

Slevin, quite simply...
A.) Nobody cares if you made a bundle betting the GS-DAL series last year. I would surmise that you are trying to say that you are such a bright, intelligent, astute basketball mind that you can spot the upset. Congratulations for being there to profit off of catching lightning in a bottle. However, your second comment completely tears apart the veracity of the claim implicit in your first. We are supposed to believe that your betting that series indicates you not only can catch lightning in a bottle, but that you know sports. Sorry, just can't get myself to believe that to be true based on comment the 2nd...
B.) You missed the point being made - this is the NBA, the best professional basketball league in the world. Hakim Warrick won a national title at Cuse, Rudy Gay is a star in the making, Conley is going to be a good pg in the league, etc., etc. The team may not be an efficiently functioning, cohesive team unit in the upper echelon of the league, but the players are not complete scrubs. In football there is the "Any Given Sunday" cliche. You really give the Giants a shot at winning the SB before the playoff started? How about the Heat two years ago? The crux of the issue is variance. The likelihood is that Memphis gets blown out, especially considering the ramifications of the game for their opponent, the obviously superior Nuggets. What if Melo is suspended b/c the results of his DUI come back tonight? What if Camby breaks an ankle in the first half? What if Iverson shoots 4-19 and JR Smith cant throw the ball in the ocean if he tried? I mean, it happens, especially as "it" relates to the outcome of just one game. Do you not remember the game a few or so ago where they lost to Seattle (to my mind, the worst team in the west, and the second worst team in the NBA)...That was potentially a deal breaker, as far as their getting into the playoffs.
The point? You don't see a connection between that playoff series and the game tomorrow? It's variance...go read some A.N. Kolmolgorov, some Bayes, some Chebyshev. Nail down some statistical concepts. Then open your eyes. Even though it doesn't matter anymore now that the Warriors lost, the point is that Denver could still lose, no matter what NBA team they are playing. And the fact that you bet the GS-DAL series and won some money doesn't change the facticity that is the adherence in reality of that permuational possibility...