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hornrimmed_rambis last won the day on January 4 2015

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About hornrimmed_rambis

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    Internet of Things, coaching 4th grade boys hoops, reminiscing about the Showtime Lakers.

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  1. It's clear that it's McGee. AD will not start. I'm guessing Dwight was very likely specifically asked this question, with JaVale present.
  2. Dwight will almost certainly cap McGee's upside. There's no question that Dwight can still play, with all the ego issues aside. McGee will start, but if we expect Dwight to play 20 min, and AD at C for 8, that leaves only 20 minutes a night for McGee. And that's before December, when Dwight (through a media puppet) starts asking why he's not starting. (We've seen this story before.)
  3. This is the worst thing that could happen for the team, but I'll restrict comments to fantasy implications. There are none. Howard will play no more than 16 minutes a night, and have low peripherals regardless. Maybe 8 points/6 boards and that's it.
  4. I haven't done my actual ranks for this season, but they are all better than LeBron. Personally, I'd say: Beal, Kawhi, Embid, PG13, LeBron And PG13 gets a knock due to being out potentially for a while. I have heard reports all over the place on him and until it's locked down, I don't like it. Let's put it this way. Every one of those guys could realistically outperform that rank, but LeBron only goes one way. No one beats Father Time.
  5. I agree with the analysis up to the end. Not sure LBJ can even be a top 10 value. He has to slip, both on games played and minutes played. Staggering with AD will enable him to play 32 minutes a night, far lower than any previous season. Last season he was at 35+ minutes. And he will take days off to conserve for a PO run. The minute reduction alone drops every counting stat by 10%. Additionally, he is playing with two great passing bigs. They will run more of a high post offense, initiating the offense with a big man on the elbow. Think Vlade or DMC in Sacto. That means Boogie gets more assists, and LBJ less. He will still do the LBJ thing, but less often, and enough to knock another 10% off his assists. And two great bigs mean less rebounding. And blocks go down because he won't be asked to guard in the post. Maybe steals stay where they are, since he will only continue to freelance and play free safety on defense, and while he can't stay with his man, he will use his high IQ to steal in the passing lanes. Maybe he keeps his 3s with all the gravity of the bigs. But he will likely dish to better 3p shooters on the perimeter. So all in all: 24.5 points, 6.5 rebs, 7.0 assists, .4 blks, 1.1 stls, 1.5 3pm with 66% FT%. It's a nice top 20 line, but he will be too expensive where he gets drafted in most leagues, due to his name value. The popcorn stats will look fine, and casual fans will still think he is the best player. But the stats will be hollow.
  6. I see you. I "liked" the post. But I raise you this guy:
  7. A decent analysis of the lineup here: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2844878-building-the-ideal-lakers-starting-5-with-lebron-james-at-point-guard
  8. Good analysis. The other thing that bothers me is they may play AD at the 5 for a good amount, and that is likely their best offensive lineup. Or AD at 4 with LeBron at 5. Same thing, really. They don't want to do it, but they may have to do it for good stretches, with Caruso at PG. I think the Lakers will be more inclined to go that way than GSW did, because the Lakers' lineup just will flow smoother that way, and they can bring a better defender in on the wing.
  9. Usage. Boogie will play with the starters in LA. There are some mouths to feed, and in fact the gunners at the wing will steal his shots maybe even more than LeBron and AD. So for that reason, points may fall. In GS, he played usually on the 2nd team and got more usage in limited minutes.
  10. I said there is risk. Can't take him in the 3rd with more and safer value on the board. This gets into overall fantasy valuation/draft strategy. I assign a beta to every projection, and focus on drafting low beta guys in the first 4 rounds. Then go nuts. Of course, I'm the guy who took Kevin Love at like #15 overall last year, so.... ;-(
  11. Taj steals minutes everywhere he goes, and this is the Fiz-Knicks. Love the kid, but no thanks.
  12. Ok, let's talk fantasy. I see him doing what he did at GSW, and maybe a bit more as the season wears on and they figure out he should start with AD, and McGee should be the backup. His GSW line for guidance: 16/8/3.6 assists with 1.3 steals and 1.5 blks in 25.7 minutes His projected LA Laker line: 15/7/4 assists with 1.3 steals and 1.3 blks in 27 minutes He will get more assists lobbing to AD (as he did in NOLA). He will get about the same efficient shots while surrounded by a ring of 3p shooters and a bit more time with starters. He loses Rebs with AD. AD is not a usage monster, and LeBron will happily pass at this stage. The extra time on the floor offsets some of the counting stats he would lose to AD. That's maybe a 6th rounder given the risk factor.
  13. Reddick is not a fair comp. JJ is the best in the league right now at moving without the ball to get an open look. That guy is an assassin.
  14. Agreed, and they were probably choosing between a risk on Bradley, vs. the offensively-limited Nwaba. I'd take Nwaba's stellar defense, leaving enough dry powder for their last slot to sign Iggy if he frees up. They clearly think Bradley has a chance, and at worst can camp out and hit a 3-ball. We will see. They already have better options for that. Note Rob Pelinka used to be Bradley's agent. Hmmmm.
  15. Didn't work out? Before Cousins went down, NOLA was awesome that year. They had won 7 of his last 8 games, and beaten Houston, Milwaukee, Boston, Utah and San Antonio. If the season had ended that day, they would have been the 6th seed in a stacked Western conference, and would be a tough out for both the #2 Rockets and the #3 Spurs, each of whom they had already beaten in the season. Of course, Boogie was also in his best statistical year, and expected to get a max salary offer that offseason. The Achilles robbed him of maybe $150 million. Crazy money. Now that guy is not coming through the door. He is not going 25/12. But he can certainly still ball, and maybe being near his old running mate will bring some of his magic back.