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Everything posted by BlueJaysIn2030

  1. New York Yankees 2018 Outlook

    Looks like Joe Girardi won't be back:
  2. 2019 First Rounders Discussion

    TrEy TuRnEr Is A tOp 3 pLaYeR But seriously... who is snagging this kid? I think some people will sleep on him. 19HR, 43SB, .760OPS... Could def see him going 20/40 again with a .290 avg.
  3. David Price 2018 Outlook

    One of the things I find most compelling about sports are good player performing poorly when the spotlight really bright. I love it when they just can't seem to figure it out and then suddenly do. Watching Kershaw go 8IP was awesome. We've talked a lot about his postseasons on these forums, and I sit firmly in the camp of "He isn't as bad as it seems, but a few select innings destroyed his overall numbers." But 8IP? Awesome. I was really rooting for Price to figure something out. It's such a shame that this guy chokes so hard in the postseason, especially since he's been such a workhorse his entire career. To sign with Boston and suddenly become a joke, to pitch fantastic in 2018 and falter in the ALDS sucks.
  4. 10/6 - GAME DAY THREAD

    You should be manager
  5. So news just broke that Ohtani has a first degree sprain in his throwing elbow... That sucks. But apparently that doesn't mean too much these days and surgery isn't needed. Fangraphs has them pegged for 82-80 in the AL West, which I feel like is fair but I could also see them doing a bit better - maybe 84-78. The West is a little weird right now, with the Rangers having no pitching, the Mariners doing whatever they can to get better, and the Athletics doing nothing. I think that this Angels team is a serious WC1 contender. The lineup isn't great, but here it is with their projections in bold (Steamer): C - Maldonado 105GP, 506PA, 12HR, 42R/43RBI, .223/.290/.367 1B - Cron 138GP, 559PA, 24HR, 67R/77RBI, .257/.311/.456 2B - Cowart 141GP, 550PA, 11HR 57R/54RBI, 15SB, .238/.300/.363 SS - Simmons 149GP, 608PA, 12HR, 65R/66RBI, 12SB, .270/.322/.396 3B - Valbuena 138GP, 558PA, 23HR, 66R, 70RBI, .224/.317/.419 OF - Upton 146GP, 613PA, 29HR. 78R/86RBO, 11SB, .247, .329, .465 OF - Trout 150GP, 661PA, 39HR, 114R, 108RBI, 21SB, .308/.434/.605 OF - Calhoun 149GP, 651PA, 22HR, 83R/76RBI, .257/.336/.428 DH - Pujols 143GP, 613PA, 27HR, 73R/87RBI, .254/.309/.440 I can see Upton ad Cron outplaying those projections for sure. But not a bad lineup, really. Pitching really is the worry... If Ohtani is a solid #2 or #3, they'll be OK. A healthy Richards and Shoemaker will eat up innings, and I'm still waiting on Skaggs and Heany to better than 4.3ERA pitchers. If they can get their starters to be around 4ERA on average, I think they do well. Their BP is pretty decent. Lots of offseason left, but would love to see them get another SP somehow. I think @Fuzzy_Slippers is the LAA "super fan" on these forums. What do you think, buddy?
  6. Jonathan Villar 2018 Outlook

    OK, so last year was a huge disappointment. He looked absolutely lost at the plate, and ended up losing a good chunk of playing time (I think at one point in September he was playing like every other game). Steamer puts him at a healthy 563PA with 15HR, 70R, 54RBI, 34SB, and a slash line of .250/.324/.400. They also peg his K% at 26.9 and BB% at 9.5. Now, in the first mock I was able to get him in round 11, which is likely too early... But I had no idea what people were thinking. I see in the second mock that @taobball took him in round 15, which feels like a safe spot for him (round 13-15 for me). A lot of people are going to go after his inflated 2016 BABIP (.373), but I think there's a lot more to him than luck. In 2016 his K% and BB% were 25.6 and 11.6 respectively, and he had an OBP of .369 compared to .293 last year. His O-Swing was 29.5%, with a contact rate of only 58.3% (interestingly enough, he had a higher outside zone contact rate last year than in 2016). He was swinging at more pitches (47.4% vs 43% in 2016), making less contact (71.1% vs 75.2%) and his SwStr% rose (13.7% vs 10.6%). Throw in his poor defence (although by Def rating he improved) and all the sudden you have a dude on the outside looking in. I forgot that he had a back injury, and he was obviously far less selective with his pitches in 2017. If you can get this guy in round 13-15 you should do it... The chance for 10+HR and 40+SB is there, even if the BA isn't great. The manager has said that the job is essentially Villar's unless he screws up. Fangraphs posted a great article yesterday ( discussing what happened to Villar. Villar Recent Stats Season Team Age G PA HR SB AVG OBP SLG ISO 2013 Astros 22 58 241 1 18 .243 .321 .319 .076 2014 Astros 23 87 289 7 17 .209 .267 .354 .144 2015 Astros 24 53 128 2 7 .284 .339 .414 .129 2016 Brewers 25 156 679 19 62 .285 .369 .457 .171 2017 Brewers 26 122 436 11 23 .241 .293 .372 .132 2018 Steamer 27 130 563 15 34 .250 .324 .399 .149 Of all the values which changed his value from 2016 to 2017 was the 76-percentage point drop in OBP. Less times on base meant fewer steals and runs scored. An OBP under .300 is kill for any hitter. More Villar Stats Season GB% HR/FB Pull% BB% K% Swg% Contact% AVG EV Sprint Speed 2014 51.0% 13.5% 34.0% 6.6% 27.7% 46.0% 70.1% 2015 58.0% 10.0% 44.9% 7.8% 22.7% 46.2% 77.0% 89.5 27.3 2016 56.0% 19.6% 32.3% 11.6% 25.6% 42.8% 75.0% 87.7 27.7 2017 57.0% 19.0% 39.1% 6.9% 30.3% 47.5% 71.3% 86.7 27.6 His plate discipline is the biggest discrepancy over the past two season seasons with his K%-BB% jumping from 14% to 23%. Even though he maintained similar power and groundball rates, the overall decline in contact rate while swinging more did him in. He did have a major back injury in 2017 which cost him 18 days on the DL during June. To see if the injury affected him, here are some of the core stats before and after the injury. Pre & Post-Injury Stats GB% HR/FB Pull% BB% K% Swg% Contact% Before Injury 62.3% 19.4% 43.3% 8.9% 30.6% 46.6% 72.3% After Injury 51.3% 18.5% 33.9% 4.3% 29.8% 48.5% 69.4% While the plate discipline stats which caused his 2017 demise weren’t great before the injury, they tanked after it, especially his walk rate.
  7. 2018 Celebration Thread- Victory is Mine!

    Won my first title! Thanks for all the advice on this forum it was super helpful!
  8. Adalberto Mondesi 2018 Outlook

    Probably same place Cano got his.
  9. Ryu Sunday?

    Please help me to my first championship! 9-6 right now for me, H2H... It's likely going to come down to pitching. Cats are: IP/W/K/ERA/WHIP/K9/QS/S+H He's at 5/5 moves, I have one left... We each have 5 going the next few days. I have: Pivetta, deGrom, Minor, Arrieta and Happ to finish the year. He has: Liriano, Verlander, Glasnow, Junis, and Godley to finish, with Odorizzi possibly going Sunday. Possible streamers available to me right now: Williams vMIL Gonzales @TEX Zimmerman vKC DeSclafani @Mia Keller @DET Fedde vMets Ryu vSD I should go Ryu here, right? Thanks! EDIT: Little more info... Scores right now: My team: 36IP 0W 46K 5.65ERA 1.42WHIP 11.29K/9 2QS 3SV+H His team: 41IP 3W 49K 5.49ERA 1.37WHIP 10.76K/9 4QS 1SV+H
  10. Mookie Betts 2018 Outlook

    Hasn't been announced yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was sitting.
  11. Hunter Renfroe 2018 Outlook

    Yeah, this dude is good. Had a great hype coming up. Like I said a post up, this guy could be a 40HR hitter in the NL. This Padres team should have some good OBP guys in the next couple years. His last 162 games: 560AB, 36HR, 75R, 89RBI, 34 double .248/.299/.509 with a .261 ISO... .286BABIP, bad 27.9%K with 5.9%BB. He has the 17th most HR in the last calendar year, in only 117 games (Daniel Palka is right there as well, crazy). Dude is going to be a good sleeper pick. He has the potential to be an absolute bust or hit you 40HR. Worth it.
  12. Hunter Renfroe 2018 Outlook

    Will be fun to watch them, the Phillies and Braves next year. Also Myers has been pretty good out of the one spot. Might be interesting.
  13. Hunter Renfroe 2018 Outlook

    Doesn't matter who is where imo. Like if that's your OF and you have Margot as your 4th, I like it. Especially with the amount of guys under 28. The question is going to be around who is pitching. As for leadoff, my better is Urias if he can hit to the level scouts expected.
  14. Hunter Renfroe 2018 Outlook

    Especially if the Padres have their full lineup next season. Hedges, Mejia, Myers, Cordero, Urias, Margot, Renfroe... Could be a fun team to watch.
  15. Hyun-Jin Ryu 2018 Outlook

    Anyone starting this dude Sunday at home v SD?
  16. Baltimore Orioles 2018 Outlook

    Hardly a "great young core". You named 3 guys, one of which is 27, one is 26, one is a 13th round pick, and another who has struggled at AA.
  17. Baltimore Orioles 2018 Outlook

    Uh what? Who?
  18. Wil Myers 2018 Outlook

    Yeah man, but he's prone to injuries because they have all been injuries he could have avoided! (I'm kidding, but the narrative these people are spouting is hilarious). Keep it up, fellas! His ADP can plummet.
  19. Mike Foltynewicz 2018 Outlook

    Dynasty players... What are you doing with him? Selling hig? Holding?
  20. Mookie Betts 2018 Outlook

    I'd say he's closer to .300 than .330, but yeah should be a .300 hitter. JoRam, Trout,Betts... Can't go wrong. Splitting hairs really.
  21. Mookie Betts 2018 Outlook

    1 or 2, doesn't even matter. Like you're not making the wrong choice with Trout or Betts at 1, but Betts will probably get you more RBI or R just based on lineup. Also I'm more likely to believe Trout hitting 30+HR than Betts. So I guess it's whatever you want.
  22. Jameson Taillon 2018 Outlook

    Oh man, sorry if I came across disagreeing! I actually fully agree with you, thought it was a well made point. Corbin - like you said - is likely out of reach, but who knows what 3 years does?
  23. Jameson Taillon 2018 Outlook

    Same place as always, eating crow.
  24. Jameson Taillon 2018 Outlook

    Well Corbin is 3 years older, was a 2nd round pick, and had a K/9 rate in the 8s until this year. Since May 11th, which is when Tailon added his new pitch, the kid is sitting at: 141IP, 137SO, 8.72K/9 with a 2.93ERA. As far as being hittable goes, you're bang on. But I think that has a lot to do with age and figuring things out (remember, still 26, was a 2nd overall pick, added a new pitch which changed him immensely, had a 3.38ERA in his debut year). He's 100% a top 20 pitcher next year, and I could see him finishing in the top 15 if he keeps it up. Nola and Corbin are guys I like, but I think a Nola comp is more appropriate as to what Tailon will/could become (although Nola's BABIP scares the crap out of me). In the end if you miss out on Nola and Corbin and get Tailon as a consolation prize, I think you'll be pumped. Hot take for 2019: 209IP, 195Ks, 3.25ERA with a WHIP of 1.10, bad record (something like 11-11 or whatever) but everything else is great.
  25. Mookie Betts 2018 Outlook

    In the lineup batting 1st