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Everything posted by BlueJaysIn2030

  1. Michael A. Taylor 2018 Outlook

    So this is a guy that I've had a lot of intrigue about for a few years now. He's young (26), plays in a lethal lineup (playoffs be damned) and has a solid power/speed combo that's resulted in 41HR/47SB over 1131AB, or a 162 game average of 19HR/22SB with a .243/.295/.407 line and a .702OPS. Taylor made some serious strides in 2017. His final line ended up being a very healthy 399AB, 55R/53RBI, 19HR/17SB, slashing .271/.320/.486 with an OPS of .806. If the guy can get an extra 200AB, I'm sure we'd see that K% drop a bit as well. He had 3 months of hitting .250 or lower (111 total AB), but the Nats weren't exactly playing him much in those months. Now, I'm not saying this kid is going to be a .300 20/20 player or anything... But honestly, if he can get a full season worth of AB, I think 20HR with 25+SB is possible. On top of that, his post-season was really strong: 5G, 15AB with 3R, 2HR and 8 RBI, 3BB to 4SO, a .333/.444/.733 line with an OPS of 1.178... Yes, small sample size, put I'm sure the post-season can be a huge boost to confidence in players who do well. I'll be targeting him as a 5th OF if possible. Love power/speed guys.
  2. Yasiel Puig 2018 Outlook

    Uh, so this postseason has been amazing. He's 26 now, and he hit 28HR with 15SB in 499ABs in 2017. Toss in 72R, 74RBI, and a slash line of .263/.346/.487 .833OPS. It's been really fun to watch him this postseason, and he's been a catalyst for the Dodgers: 1HR, 6RBI, 1R, .467BA, 2BB to 1SO. How are you feeling about him in 2018? i can see a similar year to 2017, with maybe a boost in BA/R/RBI.
  3. Orlando Arcia 2018 Outlook

    Gotta depend on the situation. 10 teamer he's probably a safe drop, but I still think there's loads of room for growth here (I'm actually trying to buy). BABIP is .194, he's taking his walks (5.9%), and his soft% is up while hard is% is down. Plus his exit velocity is down. His place discipline is pretty much the same: Season Team O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% Zone% F-Strike% SwStr% 2016 Brewers 38.5 % 70.4 % 52.8 % 64.9 % 77.6 % 72.5 % 44.9 % 69.4 % 14.5 % 2017 Brewers 38.7 % 73.7 % 54.0 % 61.4 % 85.7 % 75.9 % 43.8 % 64.1 % 12.8 % 2018 Brewers 39.8 % 74.7 % 54.9 % 67.6 % 81.1 % 75.6 % 43.3 % 64.7 % 13.4 % Total - - - 38.7 % 72.8 % 53.7 % 62.7 % 83.3 % 75.0 % 44.1 % 65.5 % 13.3 % So yeah, a few things to be worried about... But the plate discipline is basically the same, plus low BABIP and increased GB/decreased LD speak to me. I think he's a few small adjustments away from going back to 2017 form.
  4. Orlando Arcia 2018 Outlook

    OK, I love this guy. I think he has all the tools and is super underrated. He went relatively unnoticed last year because of a poor 2016 debut (55G, 4HR, 21R, 17RBI, only 8SB, .219/.324/.358). 2017 was a really good year for the young SS. He's only 23 and was a highly touted prospect coming up. The Brewers love the kid, and he showed flashes of why all season. He's a subpar defender, but his bat should keep him in the lineup. Last year he finished with 15HR, 56R, 53RBI, 14SB, .277/.324/.407. He was caught stealing 7 times, but that should improve (caught 8/23 times in 2016). He's quick and has some power, for sure. Steamer has him going 14HR, 53R, 58RBI, 14SB, .261/.312/.405 for 2018, but I think that's low. For some reason the system has him set for only 138 games, but he played 153 in 2017. His BABIP is projected to be under .300, but with his speed and contact rate it should be higher than that. I'm projecting him for 158GP with 14HR and 24SB. I can see him replicating his average from 2017 or being close to it (let's say .270-.275). He seemed to get more confident on the basepaths during the second half of the year (9SB - 3CS vs 5SB - 4CS), and while his average dropped a bit, it was still solid at .268. I think OBP skills are going to be the real deciding factor on how he does, but I can see him being above average he had more walks (19) in the second half than the first (17), in 86 fewer PA. So again, my projection is 158GP with 14HR and 24SB with a BA around .270-.275. If you can snag this guy late, definitely do it. The Brewers should be running like crazy, and Arcia is now entering his 3rd year (2nd full) as a true pro.
  5. Josh Hader 2018 Outlook

    Gonna end up with 220ks in 90 IP haha
  6. Charlie Blackmon 2018 Outlook

    Robbed of the MVP in my opinion... I really do feel he was the best all around player in the NL. .331/.339/.601 with 37HR, 14SB, 137R/104RBI in a whopping 725PA... plus good defence and a playoff team (WC or not). Dude was amazing, especially for where he was likely drafted. The question is: What does he do in 2018? Steamer: 26HR, 18Sb, 102R, 78RBI, .296/.362/.505 That is pretty damn elite. I've seen him being drafted top 10, and I'm on board in most leagues with that. I could totally see a repeat of last season with a few less dingers.
  7. Jonathan Villar 2018 Outlook

    OK, so last year was a huge disappointment. He looked absolutely lost at the plate, and ended up losing a good chunk of playing time (I think at one point in September he was playing like every other game). Steamer puts him at a healthy 563PA with 15HR, 70R, 54RBI, 34SB, and a slash line of .250/.324/.400. They also peg his K% at 26.9 and BB% at 9.5. Now, in the first mock I was able to get him in round 11, which is likely too early... But I had no idea what people were thinking. I see in the second mock that @taobball took him in round 15, which feels like a safe spot for him (round 13-15 for me). A lot of people are going to go after his inflated 2016 BABIP (.373), but I think there's a lot more to him than luck. In 2016 his K% and BB% were 25.6 and 11.6 respectively, and he had an OBP of .369 compared to .293 last year. His O-Swing was 29.5%, with a contact rate of only 58.3% (interestingly enough, he had a higher outside zone contact rate last year than in 2016). He was swinging at more pitches (47.4% vs 43% in 2016), making less contact (71.1% vs 75.2%) and his SwStr% rose (13.7% vs 10.6%). Throw in his poor defence (although by Def rating he improved) and all the sudden you have a dude on the outside looking in. I forgot that he had a back injury, and he was obviously far less selective with his pitches in 2017. If you can get this guy in round 13-15 you should do it... The chance for 10+HR and 40+SB is there, even if the BA isn't great. The manager has said that the job is essentially Villar's unless he screws up. Fangraphs posted a great article yesterday ( discussing what happened to Villar. Villar Recent Stats Season Team Age G PA HR SB AVG OBP SLG ISO 2013 Astros 22 58 241 1 18 .243 .321 .319 .076 2014 Astros 23 87 289 7 17 .209 .267 .354 .144 2015 Astros 24 53 128 2 7 .284 .339 .414 .129 2016 Brewers 25 156 679 19 62 .285 .369 .457 .171 2017 Brewers 26 122 436 11 23 .241 .293 .372 .132 2018 Steamer 27 130 563 15 34 .250 .324 .399 .149 Of all the values which changed his value from 2016 to 2017 was the 76-percentage point drop in OBP. Less times on base meant fewer steals and runs scored. An OBP under .300 is kill for any hitter. More Villar Stats Season GB% HR/FB Pull% BB% K% Swg% Contact% AVG EV Sprint Speed 2014 51.0% 13.5% 34.0% 6.6% 27.7% 46.0% 70.1% 2015 58.0% 10.0% 44.9% 7.8% 22.7% 46.2% 77.0% 89.5 27.3 2016 56.0% 19.6% 32.3% 11.6% 25.6% 42.8% 75.0% 87.7 27.7 2017 57.0% 19.0% 39.1% 6.9% 30.3% 47.5% 71.3% 86.7 27.6 His plate discipline is the biggest discrepancy over the past two season seasons with his K%-BB% jumping from 14% to 23%. Even though he maintained similar power and groundball rates, the overall decline in contact rate while swinging more did him in. He did have a major back injury in 2017 which cost him 18 days on the DL during June. To see if the injury affected him, here are some of the core stats before and after the injury. Pre & Post-Injury Stats GB% HR/FB Pull% BB% K% Swg% Contact% Before Injury 62.3% 19.4% 43.3% 8.9% 30.6% 46.6% 72.3% After Injury 51.3% 18.5% 33.9% 4.3% 29.8% 48.5% 69.4% While the plate discipline stats which caused his 2017 demise weren’t great before the injury, they tanked after it, especially his walk rate.
  8. Albert Pujols 2018 Outlook

    OK, so I'm starting this less from a FBB perspective and more from a career perspective. The dude has a .305BA over 16 seasons, in which he's batted under .300 in his last 7... that's how good his first 9 seasons were. He'll be 38 when the season starts, and outside of 2013 he's been able to play 140+ games each year. Here are some numbers he's getting close to: 2000RBI: currently sitting 1918, 82 short. If he plays 140 games in 2018, he should get there. That would put him 5th all time. 700HR: Fat Albert has 614HR to his name, good enough for 7th. Ahead of him are some cheaters like Bonds and Rodriguez, so depending on how you view things he could be 5th (I count both of those losers). If he stays healthy and plays, say, 4 more years he could possibly hit 700. He did swat 31 in 2016 and 40 in 2015... last year was his lowest HR total (23) 2014. Anyone else hoping he has a couple of monster years? I'd love to this guy swat another 90HR over the next few years and enter that 700HR club. I feel like he's the forgotten man since he signed that contract and left the Cards. Also, for FBB purposes: If you can get him super late and want some RBI/HR, he's not a bad choice. He was pretty consistent with his HR totals month to month, and his RBI totals were decent enough. Good BB and K rates, but obviously that BA is a drain.
  9. Jonathan Villar 2018 Outlook

    42ab, league lead at 60. Not really so bad. Not a part time player.
  10. Jonathan Villar 2018 Outlook

    He's played 13 out of 14 games.
  11. Buster Posey 2018 Outlook

    Agreed, especially with 1B eligibility and if you pair him up with a HR hitter.
  12. Lance McCullers 2018 Outlook

    He was never drafted as an ace. But guys get hit hard sometimes: Kershaw's bad starts: 6ER in 6.1IP vs NYM 9ER in 4.2 vs COL 7ER in 1IP vs MIL There are plenty more. You wanna talk walks? 4BB in 7IP vs SD 4BB in 5.2IP vs COL 4BB in 5IP vs NYM 4BB in 5IP vs SD 5BB in 5IP vs CIN 5BB in 4.2 vs STL Like, dude's get lit up all the time. It's his 3rd start, and if you drafted him as an ace then you're bad at this FBB thing. He's not an ace... he's never thrown 160IP. No one to blame but yourself here.
  13. 4/11 - GAME DAY THREAD

    Man, blisters are TJ Lite haha. They come outta no where and the pitcher is done forever.
  14. Buster Posey 2018 Outlook

    Dude ain't slowing down. 1HR today, looking great this year!
  15. Lance McCullers 2018 Outlook

    Yeah can't underscore this enough. It's unreal how many people get all hot and bothered. Mike Trout was hitting like .170 a week ago,.
  16. Lance McCullers 2018 Outlook

    Yeah, 3.48ERA in 10IP is terrible. Especially with 17Ks and a W. Twins are 14th in RS, so they aren't bad. SPs taken outside of RD3 (Y!): Severino, Darvish, Ray, Martinez, MadBum, Nola, Greinke, Archer, Keuchel, Paxton, McCullers, Tanaka, Hendricks, Arrieta, Ohtani, Berrios, Hill, Lester, Price, Wood, Godley, Castillo, Weaver, Taillon... Lots of great pitchers in rounds 4+. You should always get a SP in the first 3, but after that you can def stay above water with matchups. You draft a guy as late as you do with McCullers for upside. It's the Stanton thing... you keep hitting it till he goes off. I guess. Syndergaard sitting with a 3.94ERA, Carrasco 5.40, Ray 5.73, Darvish 5.23, etc. Lots of guys get lit up randomly. Kershaw allowed 9 (I think) to the Rockies once or twice. Anyway... were people really thinking a kid who threw 140IP last year to be, like... perfect every outing? He's had two good one bad.
  17. Francisco Lindor 2018 Outlook

    Where are you? I'm in Ontario and we got hit with a wild storm last week and on the weekend. Buses were cancelled where I'm at last Friday!
  18. Ian Happ 2018 Outlook

    Man wait until some of the 2nd and 3rd round "upside" guys are hitting .260 in May and not .300 and people are screaming about how bad so and so sucks. It's the worst of the forum!
  19. Francisco Lindor 2018 Outlook

    I feel like you say this in a lot of threads. You into Voodoo my man?
  20. Shohei Ohtani 2018 Outlook

    I'm with you. It's such a tough call... he could bust like Thames eventually did, or he could seriously be an ace. If I'm in Roto I think I just ride the ship and get the points early. But damn... what a tough decision people are going to have to make. Also... the guy in my league who has him as a hitter offered him to me for Kluber... I chuckled.
  21. GAMEDAY Thread - 4/8/18

    K I'll bite. 1) He didn't steal because he didn't feel like it, plain and simple. Stealing isn't something that many guys can just do... there's a lot of mental strategy involved. You can't sorta go, you have to really go. So I'd go ahead and say he didn't steal because he didn't want to. 2) The name of the game is to outscore your opponent. Here is the batting order with their OBP: Cozart - .350 Trout - .279 Upton - .333 Does it matter if he's 3 or 2? We know his OBP will be north of .350 this season. Add to the fact that he was mostly a 2-hole hitter in 2017 and I don't see a reason to move him. The guys around him are doing just fine, why mess with it?
  22. Reynaldo Lopez 2018 Outlook

    The 3.62ERA, 9.44K/9 in 191IP with a 2.72BB/9 Liriano you mean? I hope so!
  23. Corey Kluber 2018 Outlook

    Hey everybody, Kluber gets the Tigers tomorrow.
  24. GAMEDAY Thread - 4/8/18

    2sb this season, 22sb last season what are you on about?
  25. New York Yankees 2018 Outlook

    Looks like Joe Girardi won't be back: