BlueJaysIn2030

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Everything posted by BlueJaysIn2030

  1. New York Mets 2018 Outlook

    Lol come on man this is nonsense.
  2. Yasiel Puig 2018 Outlook

    Uh, so this postseason has been amazing. He's 26 now, and he hit 28HR with 15SB in 499ABs in 2017. Toss in 72R, 74RBI, and a slash line of .263/.346/.487 .833OPS. It's been really fun to watch him this postseason, and he's been a catalyst for the Dodgers: 1HR, 6RBI, 1R, .467BA, 2BB to 1SO. How are you feeling about him in 2018? i can see a similar year to 2017, with maybe a boost in BA/R/RBI.
  3. Seattle Mariners 2018 Outlook

    You said they need SP. They seem fine from the starting pitching stand point right now. ASB, rest everyone up. Should be alright.
  4. Seattle Mariners 2018 Outlook

    5th in the AL in WAR. 8th in the MLB. So uh... What
  5. Charlie Blackmon 2018 Outlook

    Robbed of the MVP in my opinion... I really do feel he was the best all around player in the NL. .331/.339/.601 with 37HR, 14SB, 137R/104RBI in a whopping 725PA... plus good defence and a playoff team (WC or not). Dude was amazing, especially for where he was likely drafted. The question is: What does he do in 2018? Steamer: 26HR, 18Sb, 102R, 78RBI, .296/.362/.505 That is pretty damn elite. I've seen him being drafted top 10, and I'm on board in most leagues with that. I could totally see a repeat of last season with a few less dingers.
  6. Albert Pujols 2018 Outlook

    OK, so I'm starting this less from a FBB perspective and more from a career perspective. The dude has a .305BA over 16 seasons, in which he's batted under .300 in his last 7... that's how good his first 9 seasons were. He'll be 38 when the season starts, and outside of 2013 he's been able to play 140+ games each year. Here are some numbers he's getting close to: 2000RBI: currently sitting 1918, 82 short. If he plays 140 games in 2018, he should get there. That would put him 5th all time. 700HR: Fat Albert has 614HR to his name, good enough for 7th. Ahead of him are some cheaters like Bonds and Rodriguez, so depending on how you view things he could be 5th (I count both of those losers). If he stays healthy and plays, say, 4 more years he could possibly hit 700. He did swat 31 in 2016 and 40 in 2015... last year was his lowest HR total (23) 2014. Anyone else hoping he has a couple of monster years? I'd love to this guy swat another 90HR over the next few years and enter that 700HR club. I feel like he's the forgotten man since he signed that contract and left the Cards. Also, for FBB purposes: If you can get him super late and want some RBI/HR, he's not a bad choice. He was pretty consistent with his HR totals month to month, and his RBI totals were decent enough. Good BB and K rates, but obviously that BA is a drain.
  7. Jonathan Villar 2018 Outlook

    OK, so last year was a huge disappointment. He looked absolutely lost at the plate, and ended up losing a good chunk of playing time (I think at one point in September he was playing like every other game). Steamer puts him at a healthy 563PA with 15HR, 70R, 54RBI, 34SB, and a slash line of .250/.324/.400. They also peg his K% at 26.9 and BB% at 9.5. Now, in the first mock I was able to get him in round 11, which is likely too early... But I had no idea what people were thinking. I see in the second mock that @taobball took him in round 15, which feels like a safe spot for him (round 13-15 for me). A lot of people are going to go after his inflated 2016 BABIP (.373), but I think there's a lot more to him than luck. In 2016 his K% and BB% were 25.6 and 11.6 respectively, and he had an OBP of .369 compared to .293 last year. His O-Swing was 29.5%, with a contact rate of only 58.3% (interestingly enough, he had a higher outside zone contact rate last year than in 2016). He was swinging at more pitches (47.4% vs 43% in 2016), making less contact (71.1% vs 75.2%) and his SwStr% rose (13.7% vs 10.6%). Throw in his poor defence (although by Def rating he improved) and all the sudden you have a dude on the outside looking in. I forgot that he had a back injury, and he was obviously far less selective with his pitches in 2017. If you can get this guy in round 13-15 you should do it... The chance for 10+HR and 40+SB is there, even if the BA isn't great. The manager has said that the job is essentially Villar's unless he screws up. Fangraphs posted a great article yesterday (https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/jonathan-villar-a-tale-of-two-seasons/) discussing what happened to Villar. Villar Recent Stats Season Team Age G PA HR SB AVG OBP SLG ISO 2013 Astros 22 58 241 1 18 .243 .321 .319 .076 2014 Astros 23 87 289 7 17 .209 .267 .354 .144 2015 Astros 24 53 128 2 7 .284 .339 .414 .129 2016 Brewers 25 156 679 19 62 .285 .369 .457 .171 2017 Brewers 26 122 436 11 23 .241 .293 .372 .132 2018 Steamer 27 130 563 15 34 .250 .324 .399 .149 Of all the values which changed his value from 2016 to 2017 was the 76-percentage point drop in OBP. Less times on base meant fewer steals and runs scored. An OBP under .300 is kill for any hitter. More Villar Stats Season GB% HR/FB Pull% BB% K% Swg% Contact% AVG EV Sprint Speed 2014 51.0% 13.5% 34.0% 6.6% 27.7% 46.0% 70.1% 2015 58.0% 10.0% 44.9% 7.8% 22.7% 46.2% 77.0% 89.5 27.3 2016 56.0% 19.6% 32.3% 11.6% 25.6% 42.8% 75.0% 87.7 27.7 2017 57.0% 19.0% 39.1% 6.9% 30.3% 47.5% 71.3% 86.7 27.6 His plate discipline is the biggest discrepancy over the past two season seasons with his K%-BB% jumping from 14% to 23%. Even though he maintained similar power and groundball rates, the overall decline in contact rate while swinging more did him in. He did have a major back injury in 2017 which cost him 18 days on the DL during June. To see if the injury affected him, here are some of the core stats before and after the injury. Pre & Post-Injury Stats GB% HR/FB Pull% BB% K% Swg% Contact% Before Injury 62.3% 19.4% 43.3% 8.9% 30.6% 46.6% 72.3% After Injury 51.3% 18.5% 33.9% 4.3% 29.8% 48.5% 69.4% While the plate discipline stats which caused his 2017 demise weren’t great before the injury, they tanked after it, especially his walk rate.
  8. Addison Russell 2018 Outlook

    Yeah, he's been good and his ownership % should be rising.
  9. Mike Clevinger 2018 Outlook

    Will this guy be on an innings limit?
  10. Shohei Ohtani 2018 Outlook

    Hmm... wondering what to do with him in a dynasty. The batting version of him is in the WW, but not really sure if it's worth it. What are other people doing? Maybe list up league settings and what not.
  11. Shohei Ohtani 2018 Outlook

    Will he play every day,?
  12. Buster Posey 2018 Outlook

    I'm responding to some guys talking about him as a HOF candidate.
  13. Buster Posey 2018 Outlook

    K so prove it to me. I'm not a SF fan at all.
  14. Buster Posey 2018 Outlook

    Yup. They should do it already. I still think he's a great catcher, and when all is said and done we're looking at a .300, 12hr, 60/60 season. I didnt draft him (playing dynasty, had him for a few years) but he's fairly steady at a poor position. Def better guys on my WW for power and RBI, but if you need a solid BA he's a good bet.
  15. Jake Arrieta 2018 Outlook

    Please tell me.more.
  16. So news just broke that Ohtani has a first degree sprain in his throwing elbow... That sucks. But apparently that doesn't mean too much these days and surgery isn't needed. Fangraphs has them pegged for 82-80 in the AL West, which I feel like is fair but I could also see them doing a bit better - maybe 84-78. The West is a little weird right now, with the Rangers having no pitching, the Mariners doing whatever they can to get better, and the Athletics doing nothing. I think that this Angels team is a serious WC1 contender. The lineup isn't great, but here it is with their projections in bold (Steamer): C - Maldonado 105GP, 506PA, 12HR, 42R/43RBI, .223/.290/.367 1B - Cron 138GP, 559PA, 24HR, 67R/77RBI, .257/.311/.456 2B - Cowart 141GP, 550PA, 11HR 57R/54RBI, 15SB, .238/.300/.363 SS - Simmons 149GP, 608PA, 12HR, 65R/66RBI, 12SB, .270/.322/.396 3B - Valbuena 138GP, 558PA, 23HR, 66R, 70RBI, .224/.317/.419 OF - Upton 146GP, 613PA, 29HR. 78R/86RBO, 11SB, .247, .329, .465 OF - Trout 150GP, 661PA, 39HR, 114R, 108RBI, 21SB, .308/.434/.605 OF - Calhoun 149GP, 651PA, 22HR, 83R/76RBI, .257/.336/.428 DH - Pujols 143GP, 613PA, 27HR, 73R/87RBI, .254/.309/.440 I can see Upton ad Cron outplaying those projections for sure. But not a bad lineup, really. Pitching really is the worry... If Ohtani is a solid #2 or #3, they'll be OK. A healthy Richards and Shoemaker will eat up innings, and I'm still waiting on Skaggs and Heany to better than 4.3ERA pitchers. If they can get their starters to be around 4ERA on average, I think they do well. Their BP is pretty decent. Lots of offseason left, but would love to see them get another SP somehow. I think @Fuzzy_Slippers is the LAA "super fan" on these forums. What do you think, buddy?
  17. Nolan Arenado 2018 Outlook

    Sorry wasn't really like... getting at you there. Just making a point on top of yours. Lots of people took Tra the 1st and it didn't make sense to me.
  18. Nolan Arenado 2018 Outlook

    Could have drafted Arenado and took Gordon later. Heck, if you want SB that bad, there are a few guys out there who will get you 20. I'll never advocate taking Turner in the 1st unless he's stealing 60 with 20HR and a BA of .300... which he isn't and won't.
  19. Tyler Skaggs 2018 Outlook

    anyone knowledgeable with an idea of what his ETA could look like?
  20. Michael A. Taylor 2018 Outlook

    So this is a guy that I've had a lot of intrigue about for a few years now. He's young (26), plays in a lethal lineup (playoffs be damned) and has a solid power/speed combo that's resulted in 41HR/47SB over 1131AB, or a 162 game average of 19HR/22SB with a .243/.295/.407 line and a .702OPS. Taylor made some serious strides in 2017. His final line ended up being a very healthy 399AB, 55R/53RBI, 19HR/17SB, slashing .271/.320/.486 with an OPS of .806. If the guy can get an extra 200AB, I'm sure we'd see that K% drop a bit as well. He had 3 months of hitting .250 or lower (111 total AB), but the Nats weren't exactly playing him much in those months. Now, I'm not saying this kid is going to be a .300 20/20 player or anything... But honestly, if he can get a full season worth of AB, I think 20HR with 25+SB is possible. On top of that, his post-season was really strong: 5G, 15AB with 3R, 2HR and 8 RBI, 3BB to 4SO, a .333/.444/.733 line with an OPS of 1.178... Yes, small sample size, put I'm sure the post-season can be a huge boost to confidence in players who do well. I'll be targeting him as a 5th OF if possible. Love power/speed guys.
  21. Jacob deGrom 2018 Outlook

    No idea how it would work, but I'd love to see this guy in Philly.
  22. Toronto Blue Jays 2018 Outlook

    2017 went pretty much exactly like I expected... An old team got older, made a mistake is moving too quickly off of Edwin, and played to a paltry 76-86 record. Their offence went from being one of the best in baseball to one of the worst, the pitching wasn't healthy, and there were some manager errors from time to time (not something we're used to). For 2018: Players Signed (age) dollars (remaining years, including 2018) Troy Tulowitzki (32) 20,000,000 (4) Russell Martin (34) 20,000,000 (2) Marco Estrada (33) 13,000,000 (1) JA Happ (34) 13,000,000 (1) Kendrys Molasses (52) 11,000,000 (2) Steve Pearce (34) 6,250,000 (1) Justin Smoak (30) 4,120,000 (2) TOTAL: 87,900,000 Arbitration (age) Josh Donaldson (31) Tom Koehler (31) Marcus Stroman (26) Ezequeil Carrera (30) Aaron Loup (29) Nick Tepesch (28) Kevin Pillar (28) Roberto Osuna (22) Ryan Goins (29) Devon Travis (26) Aaron Sanchez (24) As bad as 2017 was, there were some good things: Sanchez, Osuna, and Travis all had "poor" or terrible (Sanchez, my god) years. Their arbitration cost should be pretty low. This team is old, but 2019 looks like it could be a good year if they handle 2018 right. I think they have 3 options here: 1) Trade Donaldson for a package of prospects and hope it pans out. The team will still be pretty old and this doesn't really make them competitive, but at least it "builds" for the future. 2) Sign Donaldson for 3 years and sign JD Martinez for 3 years, regardless of cost. In 2019 they'd have a lineup that has Donaldson, Martinez, Bichette, Guerrero Jr, Tulowitzki, Martin, Smoak, plus whoever else they grab. Potentially a healthy Osuna, a budding Teoscar Hernendez... Personally, I'd love to this happen. 3) Sell off the team and go the Astros/Cubs/Phillies route. Demolish it. Trade everyone and everything, including the lockers. 2018 Outlook: Bleak.
  23. Dee Gordon 2018 Outlook

    Ya but I'm willing to bet on career numbers. He'll come around.
  24. Dee Gordon 2018 Outlook

    2sb in 3 games. 100% buying into the idea that his toe was either still bothering him or he was worried he'd do something to it again. He'd be a buy if I didn't own him. Wouldn't be shocked if he steals 20 in the second half.
  25. 6/27 - GAME DAY THREAD

    Dee with another sb