rdf8585

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  1. Bauer's 2018 seemed mostly legit at the time. It seemed like a former high draft pick coming into his own and becoming an ace. If you look at his walk rate, it seemed like he was harnessing his stuff and 2018 is the year he put it all together: BB/9: 2015: 4.04 2016: 3.32 2017: 3.06 2018: 2.93 It was back up to 3.60 going into today's outing. Along with lowering his walk rate, he was also increasing his K/9 rate: 2016: 7.96/9 2017: 10.00/9 2018: 11.34/9 Between lowering his walks and raising his strikeouts, it really did seem like he was coming into his own. Bauer had a 2.21 ERA last year to go along with a 2.44 FIP/3.14 XFIP. I wasn't expecting another 2.21 (that's tough for any starter to do in back to back years) but I thought an ERA in the high 2s/low 3s was perfectly reasonable. Sometimes when a guy breaks out, it's easy to be skeptical and dismiss it as a fluke. That didn't seem the case with Bauer after last year. His first month of 2019 was like a continuation of 2018. You wonder if Bauer has been 100 percent this year. Consider this from late June: Maybe an offseason of rest will cure whatever ails him. I honestly have no idea what to expect in 2020.
  2. I agree, especially being 2nd to last.
  3. I'm not crazy about Medina but Muller's a good prospect. It would help to know how high the draft selection is. With the season Odorizzi has had, I'd see if I could replace Medina with someone a little better. I'd also echo that if you can win this season, then hang onto Odorizzi.
  4. I was offered JD Martinez for Bobby Bradley and Reds prospect Nick Lodolo in my 12 team dynasty league. This is the dilemna: If I was contending for the playoffs this year, I'd have already taken it. But the playoffs definitely aren't in the cards for me this year. While Martinez is having a solid year, his 882 OPS would be his worst mark since 2015. And he turns 32 in a month. One fantasy site paints a more optimistic picture: "His on-paper stats have not been quite as impressive as years prior, but the underlying metrics are still every bit as impressive. His K-rate has dropped from 22.5 to 19.0 %, his launch angle is up, and his average exit velocity is the second-highest in his career." Still, does it make sense for a non-contending team to trade two prospects for a slugger who might be getting to the backside of his prime? Flipping Martinez might be tough unless a contender suffers a major injury and gets desperate. Aging hitters are tough to move in my league, even ones with Martinez' track record. The market just isn't very big. I can probably stomach losing Bradley. I have Jose Abreu at 1B in the short-term and, hopefully, Andrew Vaughn in the long-term. Lodolo is the sticking point. He was the 7th overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft and profiles as a mid-rotation arm in the majors. Those kind of prospects are pretty valuable in my league. Nothing is chased like pitching in this league - young pitching especially. Of course, it's possible Lodolo doesn't pan out. 480 prospects are owned in this league to provide some context. My league uses LF-CF-RF eligiblity instead of OF slots. Martinez will be LF and RF eligible in 2020. I have Soto in LF, so I don't need him there. In RF, my current options are Domingo Santana, Mitch Haniger and Gregory Polanco. Santana's practically matched Martinez points wise but there's so much swing and miss in his game that his profile is kind of volatile. Before his unfortunate injury, Haniger showed good power but his BA and K rate were disappointing. Polanco's lingering shoulder concerns cloud his long-term outlook. It's possible my league adds a second utility slot in 2020, which might mean the trade makes more sense, but that's not a given to happen. Can I make the playoffs next year? I wouldn't call it impossible. My current roster is better than it was two months ago but it'd still require my team to make another jump and have some prospects (McKay, Adell, Mize, May, etc) make meaningful contributions a year from now.
  5. Quote of the day: “Jeez, he’s one of those young kids that I’ve seen in the league that they’re making busts of for the Hall of Fame,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said after Hiura knocked two more doubles in the Brewers’ 5-4 win over the Braves on Wednesday at Miller Park. “My God, that kid can really hit.”
  6. Does anyone hold out hope that Kikuchi will round into form and be the #2-3 type starter most projected him to be? Another lackluster showing today has his ERA at 5.01 and WHIP at 1.460 through 20 starts, to go along with a pedestrian strikeout rate. I'd feel more forgiving if he was a 21, 22, 23 year old kid up from the minors but he's 28 with several years of experience in the NPB. "Multiple MLB scouts believe Kikuchi's ceiling is as a No. 2 starter in the Major Leagues, thanks to a fastball that averages between 92 and 94 mph while reaching 96, an uncommonly high velocity among left-handers in NPB." - Jon Paul Morosi, August 2018 "They at least have some real upside potential here if he stays healthy and pitches like a No. 2, as expected, for several years..." - Keith Law, January 2019 Injuries haven't been an issue but he hasn't pitched as expected..... He took a bit of a step back last year in Japan as well after a career campaign in 2017.
  7. I have Jack Flaherty in a 12 team dynasty. Needless to say, he hasn't lived up to expectations this year with a 4.75 ERA. Going into the year, off his strong rookie campaign, I thought he was a likely top 20 starter with the potential for a bit more if things broke right. A turnaround doesn't seem imminent; his last start, a 9 hit, 7 run drubbing by Oakland, was his worst of the year. I was offered Jon Gray, Tyler Skaggs and JP Crawford for Flaherty and Jordan Groshans. Groshans, who has been out since mid-May, is 42nd on Baseball America's June top 100 list. It's not a bad return. Gray has more points than Flaherty does in my league right now (213 Gray, 167 Flaherty) and Skaggs isn't too far behind Flaherty at 135. Gray and Skaggs have their warts. Gray had an ERA over 5 just last year and pitches in Coors Field about half the time. Skaggs has been in the majors since 2014 yet has never exceeded 24 starts or 125 innings in any single season. Injuries have been an issue. Crawford, once a top 5 prospect in some circles, is swinging a hot bat though it remains to be seen how legitimate it is. Even at his prospect peak, he was viewed by some as more of a real life asset than a fantasy one. Crawford was hitting .319 in AAA this year. I'm hesitant to move Groshans and worried Flaherty bounces back and becomes the best player in the deal, as most would have expected just a few months ago. The league has no salaries or contracts to consider. Thoughts?
  8. Part of his problem might be he needs a better third pitch.
  9. I definitely don't see him hitting for his current average in the majors, but even if he hit can hit .240-.250, he'll be valuable if he's able to tap into his power. As BA wrote last week in a free story:
  10. Can't they give this guy a shot already? 2 more homers on Thursday, up to 24 on the season. He has 9 homers in June alone. There's definite swing and miss concerns but he's made enough contact to hit .295 on the year (and over .300 since May 1). His OPS is 1.004 on the year.
  11. I guess nobody is all that concerned with Bauer?
  12. Interesting story on Sonny's resurgence in Cincy: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2019/5/23/18635027/sonny-gray-cincinnati-reds-new-york-yankees-baseball-savant-slider-movement-fastball-spin-rate
  13. Another lackluster outing from Bauer, this one today vs Tampa Bay. 6 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 8 K I guess it's good to see just 1 walk with 8 strikeouts but non-QS outing pushed his ERA to 4.11. He has 1 QS in his last five tries, a stretch that has seen him get knocked around by weak offenses like MIA, BAL and CWS. A month ago, his ERA sat at 1.99. What's everyone thinking at this point - still just a temporary rough patch? Or are we starting to think his magical 2018 might have been an outlier as opposed to someone breaking through and setting a new norm? ERA by season: 2019: 4.11 2018: 2.21 2017: 4.19 2016: 4.26 2015: 4.55 2014: 4.18 Granted, this year only includes 76 innings, so not a huge sample by comparison.... but one of those years is not like the others.