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Everything posted by osb_tensor

  1. surprised not to see a 2018 thread for this guy.. was a later round darling last season who made his MLB debut at the ripe old age of 20 years old. young, but not over-matched imo, he started off with a bang and kind of faded toward the end. overall i'd say he held his own with a line of 284/338/482 and 10HR / 3SB over 58 games. his projections for 2018 are very similar to his line in 2017: ~275/330/480 with ~20-25HR and a few SB sprinkled in. xStats is a bit more bearish, only predicting a ~260/310/447 line. his adp's at couchmanagers, nfbc, and fantrax are 101, 133, and 91 respectively. these seems about right, maybe a little early but nothing egregious, i don't want to pay for assumed professional growth in my draft, but i think he's definitely one of the guys that can reach the top end of the projections. to me he's one of the solid, middle of the pack 3B options, grouped in with the likes of lamb, moose, bregman, maybe castellanos and a few others. am i off base? do people think he's going to break out and force his way into the top tier 3B group with something like a 30+ HR / 285+ avg season? his defense is evidently a question mark to.. so if he starts off slow to hit and his defense doesn't hold up, this could be a guy who ends up in the minors to figure some things out (i.e. not helping your fantasy team), which greatly concerns me. kind of a rambling post, where my opinion sways back and forth. i love his potential, and minor league track record, but i'm not certain he's going to live up to expectations this season.. seems like he's being drafted at the appropriate spot, but under the assumption his numbers are a "lock," which i don't believe to be the case. i'm not seeing a lot of value.
  2. after multiple seasons of under-performing based on his pedigree and hype, i feel like bauer finally began to live up to some of the expectations in the second half of 2017. he still ended the season with an ERA above 4, but from July through the end of the season he sported an ERA of 3.15 with a 10.15 K/9. His WHIP was still kind of iffy at 1.35, but advanced metrics pegged him as a 3.60/3.49 pitcher during that stretch. he continued his good play during the postseason by not allowing a single earned run over 8 innings and striking out 11 batters. i think he's a perfect candidate to fly under the radar a bit, based on last seasons overall numbers, and provide some value on draft day. i definitely think he can beat his steamer projections of 4.14 ERA and 8.95 K/9. anyone else?
  3. Shane Bieber- SP CLE

    listed the other day by baseball america as the pitcher in the minors with the best control, seems like he should have his own topic. ( https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/best-tools-in-the-minors/ ) 6'3" 195, drafted in 2016 by cleveland in the fourth round. he's 22 years old, and will be 23 in a couple of months. in 2017 he moved through three levels, going from A -> A+ -> AA with an overall line of 2.86 ERA and 1.125 WHIP through 173 IP. he struck out 162 of 698 batters faced (23%, 8.4 k/9), while only walking 12 (1.7%, 0.5 bb/9, with two of those being intentional). his k-rate in AA was closer to 8 k/9 over a decent sized sample (54 IP). he started 2018 in AA and his first game looked pretty good: 6IP, 2H, 9K, 0BB i'm a sucker for guys with control, and if he can main some semblance of a decent k-rate, i think he's worth monitoring. a search of the minor forums showed that @thewallsaround is the only person who's mentioned him, and i thought some other folks might be interested. at this time i don't have any info regarding his repertoire and/or velocity, but if/when time permits i'll do some more digging. this was a cursory stat-line scouting report.
  4. Miguel Andujar 2018 Outlook

    I'm sorry, where is that in the rule book?
  5. DJ LeMahieu 2018 Outlook

    I owned LeMahieu in 2016 and he was fantastic.. an OBP north of .400 and an average good enough to win the NL batting crown, while throwing in 11HR and 11SB from your 2B/MI spot. In 2017 he was less impressive, but still had a notable slash line of .310/.374/.409, but with only 8HR and 6 SB. The major issue regarding DJ in 2018 is that his contract with the rockies expired and now he's a FA. obviously he has a great talent for getting on base, but when looking at his home/road splits, there are some concerns. Career home: .333/.392/.451 Career road: .270/.317/.351 DJ has played for the rockies since 2012, so almost all of his stats were created while playing for colorado. if he signs elsewhere in 2018, i'm afraid he could turn out to be supreme disappointment for anyone expecting a repeat of the numbers he's put up the last few seasons. i guess the hope is that he has advanced his skills in the last few seasons and his future stats will be greater than his career stats, which are dragged down by a few seasons of average-ness. if he signs back with colorado i'm all on board, but if it's anywhere else, he's probably a DND for me. am i seeing things clearly or is there something i'm missing?
  6. Robbie Ray 2018 Outlook

    in 2017 ray dazzled with a K/9 of 12.11 and an ERA at 2.89. his FIP/xFIP stand at 3.72/3.49 so I don't expect a sub 3 ERA again this season. one item that's been mentioned before, and i do believe is of note is that he has one of the hardest contact rates of all pitchers in the league. filter by pitchers with at least 60IP, and ray ranks as #7 hardest hit pitcher with a 40.4% hard hit rate. he was successful despite this, and i'm not convinced it's a problem, but it's certainly worth noting. he's a pitcher for the diamondbacks, so there's also the possibility that a humidor will be helping his cause in the future. nothing is certain, but i think it's going to happen at some point. in 2016 ray had FIP/xFIP of 3.76/3.45 in 2017 ray had FIP/xFIP of 3.72/3.49 those are very consistent numbers from one season to the next.. his strikeouts were up a bit in 2017, while his walks were also up a bit in 2017 compared to 2016, but the major difference was his babip of .352 in 2016 vs .267 in 2017.. which i'm sure were a huge part of why his ERA fell from 4.9 in 2016 to 2.89 in 2017. i like ray a lot, but i think a lot of 2017 was luck driven and while i don't think he's a 4.9 ERA guy, i'm not buying him at a 2.9 ERA either. steamer projects 3.66 and i'm right there with them, split the middle and i think it's about right. i don't think he's in the tier with kluber, sale, and kershaw's of the MLB, but i do think he's probably in the next tier. maybe with some guys like carrasco, muccullers, darvish, archer, etc solid SP2 or true ace in 2018?
  7. Jose Bautista 2018 Outlook

    Unless you have sources you failed to mention, it's in pretty poor taste to accuse someone of cheating with absolutely zero supporting evidence. He played well at an advanced age and he wanted to get paid for it... Doesn't sound that scummy to me.
  8. Michael Kopech - P CHW

    Looking at his Twitter feed it appears it's merely conjecture/hoping on his part. I guess it's possible, but not looking likely. I was somewhat fooled (maybe wishing myself) when fantrax cited someone from mlb.com. False alarm, good drill guys.
  9. Rodriguez is not expected to return to pitching for six months after undergoing surgery to reconstruct the patellofemoral ligament in his right knee - Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. (10/17/2017) so i guess we shouldn't expect him to pitch in MLB games until maybe may/june? best case scenario..
  10. Michael Kopech - P CHW

    Surprised to see no mention of this fantrax blurb: More from Phil Rogers of MLB.com reports that White Sox top pitching prospect Michael Kopech could be called up for a spot start. The White Sox have Thursday off and Friday's scheduled starter James Shields has appeared in relief Wednesday for the White Sox. It would be a bit of a surprise to see Kopech promoted at this point, but if he does get the call, he is worth adding in all formats.
  11. falling at #3 the fWAR leaderboard at 6.9, rendon put up arguably his best stats in the majors in 2017. items of note: OBP over .403 (highest of career) more walks (highest % of career: 13.9) than strikeouts (lowest % of career: 13.6) will be in age 27 season in 2018 iso of .232, (highest of career) handful of SB stellar defense, which means he's always in the lineup when healthy fantasy: i think rendon could be a candidate to make the jump into the 1st round discussion in 2019, assuming he duplicates or improves on 2017. he doesn't have any one tremendously elite skill, so i'm not sure he'll have the justification to make it to first round status, but it's worth talking about. real life: i think he's defiantly trending toward MVP candidate status in the future if he keeps it up. didn't he get some MVP votes in his first full MLB season? what's the downside to this guy? regression? a fluke? i don't see much change in his batted ball profile, swstr%, hard%, pull%, contact%, etc.. all seem fairly close to his norms. everything seems sustainable, or close to it, at first glance. edit: defiantly trending.. i'm leaving it.
  12. Jacob Faria 2018 Outlook

    Not sure where he falls in the ranks this season, but i like his attitude. I didnt own him last season and kind of lost track of what happened to him. Looking at steamer projections, he's a mid 4's era guy who can give you some strikeouts. Anybody see anything more? He out performed his fip/xfip last season, was it a fluke or some underlying skills that might allow him to maintain his these stats? 2017 actual (86ip, 14 starts) - 3.43/4.12/4.39, 1.18 whip, 23.5%k, 8.7%bb Steamer 2018 projections - 4.28/4.48/4.61, 1.34 whip, 23.3%k, 10.2%bb Edit: maybe the biggest question, does he have a clear path to a starters role with TB? I'm assuming he does..
  13. Juan Soto-OF Nationals

    What exactly is the point to leaving him in this league?
  14. Juan Soto-OF Nationals

    He hasn't played yet?
  15. Arizona Diamondbacks 2018 Outlook

    https://physics.csuchico.edu/baseball/humidor/ This should be interesting as the season rolls along.
  16. Kyle Tucker, OF HOU

    So when exactly is this guy's 15 days up? Is it calendar days or days in which his team/club is playing ball? According to FG he's played 11 games, plus today makes 12. My rough calculation says that by Saturday (maybe Friday, if the 15 day count includes the last day) he'll have cleared the extra-control-year days of MLB service requirement. Am I right?
  17. Shane Bieber- SP CLE

    Dynasty Guru thinks it could be this season: The timeline on Bieber is promising for dynasty owners. As a polished arm, Bieber has been able to quickly climb the ladder. Until he reaches a level where he either fails to throw strikes, begins to walk too many batters, or starts getting crushed by home runs, it seems there’s no reason to hold him back. That could happen at Double-A, but if he cruises through his next 60 innings at Akron I wouldn’t be surprised to see him with Triple-A Columbus by July. Depending on what the Tribe does at the major league level with their dearth of pitching, Bieber could find himself on a 40-man roster as early as this year. And not necessarily Cleveland’s. Other teams have reportedly expressed interest in Bieber, with general managers inquiring about him during the 2017 Winter Meetings.
  18. Shane Bieber- SP CLE

    What's a realistic ETA for this guy? Could be tapped this season?
  19. Miguel Andujar 2018 Outlook

    6 hits in his last 12 ABs: 4 doubles, 1 triple, and a HR. 1 walk and 0 strikeouts. Obviously these are cherry picked, arbitrary end date numbers, but NYY would be silly to sit this guy or send him down right now.
  20. Kyle Tucker, OF HOU

    Obviously this ESPN account could be wrong, but its promoting that tucker will be playing in Vegas tonight
  21. Middle Relievers 2018 Outlook

    I doubt we see multiple inning appearances from Otto.
  22. Victor Robles - OF WAS

  23. Avisail Garcia 2018 Outlook

    55 PAs with zero walks is concerning. His o-swing% is about 10% higher than last season. His o-contact% is up a few points also, but I'd rather see better pitch recognition instead of better contact on pitches he should probably let go. It's early, and I agree it's too soon to give up on him, but he's someone to keep a close eye on. Impovement or drop city.
  24. Brandon Nimmo 2018 Outlook

    Starting tonight, per fantrax blurb. LATEST NEWS APR 16, 10:30 AM CDT The New York Mets may not have much room for outfielder Brandon Nimmo to find a ton of playing time, but he sure is forcing their hand. Nimmo is the odd man out in an outfield featuring regular starters Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, and Jay Bruce, but he's certainly earned more playing time with his results. As such, he's back in the lineup hitting leadoff against starting pitcher Jeremy Hellicksonand the Washington Nationals on Monday. Across 21 plate appearances this season, Nimmo is slashing .400/.571/.800 and has looked like the prototypical leadoff hitter the Amazins have lacked for years. As long as he's actually playing, Nimmo is an excellent player to utilize in on-base percentage leagues, but playing time is definitely going to remain an issue.