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Everything posted by osb_tensor

  1. surprised not to see a 2018 thread for this guy.. was a later round darling last season who made his MLB debut at the ripe old age of 20 years old. young, but not over-matched imo, he started off with a bang and kind of faded toward the end. overall i'd say he held his own with a line of 284/338/482 and 10HR / 3SB over 58 games. his projections for 2018 are very similar to his line in 2017: ~275/330/480 with ~20-25HR and a few SB sprinkled in. xStats is a bit more bearish, only predicting a ~260/310/447 line. his adp's at couchmanagers, nfbc, and fantrax are 101, 133, and 91 respectively. these seems about right, maybe a little early but nothing egregious, i don't want to pay for assumed professional growth in my draft, but i think he's definitely one of the guys that can reach the top end of the projections. to me he's one of the solid, middle of the pack 3B options, grouped in with the likes of lamb, moose, bregman, maybe castellanos and a few others. am i off base? do people think he's going to break out and force his way into the top tier 3B group with something like a 30+ HR / 285+ avg season? his defense is evidently a question mark to.. so if he starts off slow to hit and his defense doesn't hold up, this could be a guy who ends up in the minors to figure some things out (i.e. not helping your fantasy team), which greatly concerns me. kind of a rambling post, where my opinion sways back and forth. i love his potential, and minor league track record, but i'm not certain he's going to live up to expectations this season.. seems like he's being drafted at the appropriate spot, but under the assumption his numbers are a "lock," which i don't believe to be the case. i'm not seeing a lot of value.
  2. Juiced Ball Sports Top 105 Prospects

    Reply from author on Bauers.. I think saying saying his floor would be around 20 home runs is pretty bold with bauers. He’s never hit more than 14 and never had an ISO above .149 or a slg %above 420. He also has a pretty much full frame so it’s hard to project him out. And he’s yet to have a wOBA above .345 so a floor of 360 is a bit high. That being said I like Bauers and he was close on my list. But his upside is just so limited. I think his expectation is around 265/340/425 with 15 bombs and 10 sb. Which is nice, but not really a starter at 1B or of. And his upside just isn’t much higher. I like his discipline and running instincts. 20/23 steals attempts without much speed is impressive. Just not the upside to make the list
  3. So you're going to take up two roster spots, right? One is on your bench and one is in the active lineup.
  4. Even if your league tries to work around this ridiculousness, won't it take up two roster spots for whoever drafts/owns him?
  5. Victor Robles 2018 outlook

    Has he saw much DL time in the minors due to HBPs?
  6. Arizona Diamondbacks 2018 Outlook

    Yeah, I'm convinced that physics can give us a pretty good idea of what to expect..
  7. Buster Posey 2018 Outlook

    anything can happen, but i wouldn't expect much of a rebound regarding his HR stats. his ISO, HR/FB, and subsequently his HR totals have all three declined every year since 2014. whether or not this is a conscious decision by him to change his batted ball profile (his bb% has coincidentally went up every year since 2014), i can't answer. unless something changes in his approach, he's probably not going to flirt with upper teens or twenties for HR totals, especially in ol' AT&T park.
  8. Buster Posey 2018 Outlook

    ~300/400/450 with 10-15 HR and a few SB mixed in still has him top five in most formats. he's almost 31, but i believe he's got a few more years in him. not sure how they can limit his catching duties with Belt locked in over at 1B. he can spell Belt here and there, sure, but if they wanted to give him say a 50/50 split at catcher and 1B, what do they do with Belt? maybe try and really take advantage of inter-league play? how many games is that though?
  9. what exactly is a league manager league?
  10. not sure where else to post this.. noticed today that eno sarris is titled head of the analytics department at The Athletic. was this always his title, or is this his "new" position? https://theathletic.com/239753/2018/02/13/rosenthal-welcome-to-our-expanded-coverage-of-major-league-baseball-2/ also of note, the athletic has brought in some heavy hitters in the baseball world to write for them, including rosenthal, stark, gammons, and bowden. not sure if i should expect much in the way of advanced analysis like FG, BP, etc., but they've assembled quite the writing/reporting team in a short period. it probably won't be long before most MLB stories are reported by XXXX of The Athletic.
  11. minor nitpicking: i don't know about the claim the ESPN does position eligibility "the best" ... fantrax offers custom settings where the league chooses how many games to qualify at a position. i also believe they offer the ability for leagues to add or remove positions based on their specific desires. i'm sure there are other platforms that also allow custom position eligibility settings, which seems infinitely better than being forced into someone else's choice of what constitutes good judgment.
  12. Roto vs. H2H

  13. Roto vs. H2H

  14. The Dynasty Guru

    that's sad if true.. i really enjoyed his site/lists. the last time i visited IBW, it was a nothing but links to podcasts with him and some other group (razzball, maybe?).
  15. Yu Darvish 2018 Outlook

    overrated how? ADP? projections? in the last five seasons, with a minimum of 500IP, darvish ranks: (#2) K% - 29.7% (#20) ERA - 3.42 (#14) FIP - 3.30 (#11) xFIP - 3.24 (#22) WHIP - 1.18 (#42) Wins - 56 (#50) IP - 832.1 his only downfall is IP and Wins. but he had tommy john, so that's an entire season lost... not to mention the following season he was surely on an innings limit. he's a top 20 pitcher across the board. NFBC has him as the #16 pitcher being drafted, which feels about right. i think getting out of arlington will bring his ERA closer to his FIP expectations, and being with the cubs should help his win total this year. i'm not reaching for him top 10, but anything below 20 seems reasonable. edit: i'm not sure where to pull historical data for QS, anyone got a source they'd be willing to share?
  16. Arizona Diamondbacks 2018 Outlook

    i did quote the important part, the part that directly rebutted your statement. i'm not going to paste the entire article, that's just silly. you're entitled to believe whatever you want or not, but for you to attempt to dissuade other members on the accuracy/validity of research you can't be bothered to read is just lazy, and in bad taste. i'm finished with this conversation. i'm sure anyone who reads the thread at this point will recognize you're shooting from the hip and lack any analytical support.
  17. Arizona Diamondbacks 2018 Outlook

    come on man, fangraphs is a questionable site? you're better than that... maybe you shouldn't comment on the validity of a document you haven't bothered to read.
  18. Arizona Diamondbacks 2018 Outlook

    i'm guessing you didn't read the article..
  19. Arizona Diamondbacks 2018 Outlook

    https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/a-humidor-at-chase-field-whats-up-with-that/ the study that claims it could reduce HR by up to 50%. i wholeheartedly believe there will be a reduction in HR. 50% seems enormous, but even a 25% reduction would be substantial for fantasy purposes. Excerpt from the article above: For the first seven seasons at Coors, there were 3.20 home runs per game compared to 1.93 per Rockies away game. However, starting in 2002 the Colorado Rockies began to store their baseballs in a humidor at a constant 50 percent relative humidity and 700F, as opposed to the more typical 30 percent humidity in Denver. During the period from 2002-2010, the Coors ratio decreased to 2.39, a reduction of 25 percent, while the away game ratio stayed essentially constant at 1.86.
  20. ADP of 100+ in 2018 to top 25 in 2019?

    did harvey make the jump from 2012 to 2013?
  21. Rookie of the year

    would love to see mcmahon spell lemahieu enough to get 2b eligibility. fangraphs currently guesstimates he'll get 14 PA at 2b.. crossing my fingers
  22. Jorge Soler 2018 Outlook

  23. ADP of 100+ in 2018 to top 25 in 2019?

    aaron judge ADP couchmanagers - 14 nfbc - 17.65 fantrax - 16.94