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Everything posted by osb_tensor

  1. after multiple seasons of under-performing based on his pedigree and hype, i feel like bauer finally began to live up to some of the expectations in the second half of 2017. he still ended the season with an ERA above 4, but from July through the end of the season he sported an ERA of 3.15 with a 10.15 K/9. His WHIP was still kind of iffy at 1.35, but advanced metrics pegged him as a 3.60/3.49 pitcher during that stretch. he continued his good play during the postseason by not allowing a single earned run over 8 innings and striking out 11 batters. i think he's a perfect candidate to fly under the radar a bit, based on last seasons overall numbers, and provide some value on draft day. i definitely think he can beat his steamer projections of 4.14 ERA and 8.95 K/9. anyone else?
  2. Wander Franco, SS, TB

    A few additional stats that I find relevant: vlad jr - 276 PA, .283 BABIP franco - 231 PA, .359 BABIP
  3. Rodriguez is not expected to return to pitching for six months after undergoing surgery to reconstruct the patellofemoral ligament in his right knee - Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. (10/17/2017) so i guess we shouldn't expect him to pitch in MLB games until maybe may/june? best case scenario..
  4. Robbie Ray 2018 Outlook

    in 2017 ray dazzled with a K/9 of 12.11 and an ERA at 2.89. his FIP/xFIP stand at 3.72/3.49 so I don't expect a sub 3 ERA again this season. one item that's been mentioned before, and i do believe is of note is that he has one of the hardest contact rates of all pitchers in the league. filter by pitchers with at least 60IP, and ray ranks as #7 hardest hit pitcher with a 40.4% hard hit rate. he was successful despite this, and i'm not convinced it's a problem, but it's certainly worth noting. he's a pitcher for the diamondbacks, so there's also the possibility that a humidor will be helping his cause in the future. nothing is certain, but i think it's going to happen at some point. in 2016 ray had FIP/xFIP of 3.76/3.45 in 2017 ray had FIP/xFIP of 3.72/3.49 those are very consistent numbers from one season to the next.. his strikeouts were up a bit in 2017, while his walks were also up a bit in 2017 compared to 2016, but the major difference was his babip of .352 in 2016 vs .267 in 2017.. which i'm sure were a huge part of why his ERA fell from 4.9 in 2016 to 2.89 in 2017. i like ray a lot, but i think a lot of 2017 was luck driven and while i don't think he's a 4.9 ERA guy, i'm not buying him at a 2.9 ERA either. steamer projects 3.66 and i'm right there with them, split the middle and i think it's about right. i don't think he's in the tier with kluber, sale, and kershaw's of the MLB, but i do think he's probably in the next tier. maybe with some guys like carrasco, muccullers, darvish, archer, etc solid SP2 or true ace in 2018?
  5. surprised not to see a 2018 thread for this guy.. was a later round darling last season who made his MLB debut at the ripe old age of 20 years old. young, but not over-matched imo, he started off with a bang and kind of faded toward the end. overall i'd say he held his own with a line of 284/338/482 and 10HR / 3SB over 58 games. his projections for 2018 are very similar to his line in 2017: ~275/330/480 with ~20-25HR and a few SB sprinkled in. xStats is a bit more bearish, only predicting a ~260/310/447 line. his adp's at couchmanagers, nfbc, and fantrax are 101, 133, and 91 respectively. these seems about right, maybe a little early but nothing egregious, i don't want to pay for assumed professional growth in my draft, but i think he's definitely one of the guys that can reach the top end of the projections. to me he's one of the solid, middle of the pack 3B options, grouped in with the likes of lamb, moose, bregman, maybe castellanos and a few others. am i off base? do people think he's going to break out and force his way into the top tier 3B group with something like a 30+ HR / 285+ avg season? his defense is evidently a question mark to.. so if he starts off slow to hit and his defense doesn't hold up, this could be a guy who ends up in the minors to figure some things out (i.e. not helping your fantasy team), which greatly concerns me. kind of a rambling post, where my opinion sways back and forth. i love his potential, and minor league track record, but i'm not certain he's going to live up to expectations this season.. seems like he's being drafted at the appropriate spot, but under the assumption his numbers are a "lock," which i don't believe to be the case. i'm not seeing a lot of value.
  6. Nick Pivetta 2018 Outlook

    such a valid point regarding the graph presented. i thought these graphs automatically adjusted and didn't show any data up until the point of stability. oddly enough, when i go back to the exact same graph, it defaults to a 15 game rolling period and doesn't give me the option to adjust the time frame. no idea how i got to where i did.. to your point regarding seasonal differences versus pitcher adjustments: seasonal differences aren't really a thing, they're just arbitrary days off. if there's improvement in home runs allowed, it's more than likely because of one of a handful of things.. pitcher adjustment, ballpark factors (new team, new park, etc.), or potentially the opponent(s) faced if the sample size is small enough on either side . i can't think of much else that would affect the ability to prevent/allow home runs. what's different between last season and this season? you mention k% spike, but then say it's nothing he did differently. the k% is because he's doing something differently, no? improved pitch quality or the addition of a pitch.
  7. Nick Pivetta 2018 Outlook

    edit: wow that's big. lol anyways, it appears that he's making improvements, which is the most important takeaway, right?
  8. Not sure about his medical status for 2018, but I thought this was humorous.
  9. Carlos Santana 2018 Outlook

    i think the same could potentially be said regarding defense and an arbitrary endpoint. i grant you that santana is probably better, but each of these players has had wild swings using UZR season-to-season. i'm not 100% sold that santana is tremendously better..
  10. Carlos Santana 2018 Outlook

    sure, santana has been better in the past vRHP, but bour has still been better. from 2015-2018: bour 130 wRC+ santana 120 wRC+
  11. Justin Bour 2018 Outlook

    i'm not going to copy the whole post, you can follow the link to the santana thread if you care. why wouldn't bour take playing time from santana vRHP? he's considerably better than santana.
  12. Carlos Santana 2018 Outlook

    for those saying the phillies won't platoon them.. why? exactly why wouldn't you platoon bour and santana and get the most production out of both players? Santana vRHP - wRC+ 101 (371 PA) vLHP - wRC+ 106 (136 PA) Bour vRHP - wRC+ 126 (310 PA) vLHP - wRC+ 71 (139 PA) so, roughly, for 2018 Santana has been 35% better against LHP than Bour. conversely, Bour has been 25% better than Santana against RHP. seems like a pretty easy platoon to gain an advantage depending on the pitcher handedness. is one of them extremely better than the other related to defense?
  13. Vince Velasquez 2018 Outlook

    While I appreciate your opinion, I'm more interested in what the Phillies are planning or are likely to do.
  14. Vince Velasquez 2018 Outlook

    in 2015 he had 88.2 IP in 2016 he had 136 IP in 2017 he had 82 IP in 2018 he currently has 117.2 IP do they shut him down after a few more starts? how far will the phillies push him?
  15. Jordon "Jo" Adell - OF LAA

    Latest News Aug 8, 10:18 AM CDT Adell has been out of the lineup for Double-A Mobile with a jammed right thumb, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports. Analysis Adell has only appeared in two Double-A games since earning a promotion July 30. The injury is not reported to be a serious one and he is expected to return to action soon.
  16. falling at #3 the fWAR leaderboard at 6.9, rendon put up arguably his best stats in the majors in 2017. items of note: OBP over .403 (highest of career) more walks (highest % of career: 13.9) than strikeouts (lowest % of career: 13.6) will be in age 27 season in 2018 iso of .232, (highest of career) handful of SB stellar defense, which means he's always in the lineup when healthy fantasy: i think rendon could be a candidate to make the jump into the 1st round discussion in 2019, assuming he duplicates or improves on 2017. he doesn't have any one tremendously elite skill, so i'm not sure he'll have the justification to make it to first round status, but it's worth talking about. real life: i think he's defiantly trending toward MVP candidate status in the future if he keeps it up. didn't he get some MVP votes in his first full MLB season? what's the downside to this guy? regression? a fluke? i don't see much change in his batted ball profile, swstr%, hard%, pull%, contact%, etc.. all seem fairly close to his norms. everything seems sustainable, or close to it, at first glance. edit: defiantly trending.. i'm leaving it.
  17. DJ LeMahieu 2018 Outlook

    couldn't wait.. answered my own question:
  18. DJ LeMahieu 2018 Outlook

    I owned LeMahieu in 2016 and he was fantastic.. an OBP north of .400 and an average good enough to win the NL batting crown, while throwing in 11HR and 11SB from your 2B/MI spot. In 2017 he was less impressive, but still had a notable slash line of .310/.374/.409, but with only 8HR and 6 SB. The major issue regarding DJ in 2018 is that his contract with the rockies expired and now he's a FA. obviously he has a great talent for getting on base, but when looking at his home/road splits, there are some concerns. Career home: .333/.392/.451 Career road: .270/.317/.351 DJ has played for the rockies since 2012, so almost all of his stats were created while playing for colorado. if he signs elsewhere in 2018, i'm afraid he could turn out to be supreme disappointment for anyone expecting a repeat of the numbers he's put up the last few seasons. i guess the hope is that he has advanced his skills in the last few seasons and his future stats will be greater than his career stats, which are dragged down by a few seasons of average-ness. if he signs back with colorado i'm all on board, but if it's anywhere else, he's probably a DND for me. am i seeing things clearly or is there something i'm missing?
  19. DJ LeMahieu 2018 Outlook

    Who was sent down? Hampson?
  20. Rotoworld Software Upgrade Questions and Feedback

    Typically just copy and paste the tweet link (url) and the forum will auto format/embed the tweet.
  21. Jose Peraza 2018 Outlook

    rough week for sure, but i'm still baby-stepping with him overall. compared to last season, he's improved by about 30% this season (using wRC+). walks up, strikeouts down, avg/iso/obp all up. i'd like to see a little higher average (more 300 vs 280), but this is about what was expected of him.
  22. Jose Martinez 2018 Outlook

    i don't know wtf to do with this clown... not getting regular PAs and not doing much with the few that he does receive. he would never make it through waivers, so he's not going to be traded. so now what.... especially difficult for those in keeper leagues.
  23. Javier Baez 2018 Outlook

    if only i could slot him in all three positions at the same time....
  24. Christin Stewart - OF Tigers

    you would think so, but.... To take Martin's spot on the 25-man roster, the Tigers announced they have recalled outfielder Mike Gerber from Toledo. The 26-year-old had a brief stint in the majors this season, going hitless in two at-bats. This year in Triple-A, Gerber is hitting .214 with 13 home runs and 33 RBIs in 69 games. https://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2018/07/31/detroit-tigers-trade-leonys-martin-indians/871622002/