osb_tensor

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Everything posted by osb_tensor

  1. Not sure about his medical status for 2018, but I thought this was humorous.
  2. Rodriguez is not expected to return to pitching for six months after undergoing surgery to reconstruct the patellofemoral ligament in his right knee - Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. (10/17/2017) so i guess we shouldn't expect him to pitch in MLB games until maybe may/june? best case scenario..
  3. Tommy Pham 2018 Outlook

    on 06/18 he's useless on 06/19 he's got a 13 game hitting streak
  4. Rich Hill 2018 Outlook

    cubs at home are #1 against LHP: .385 wOBA / 144 wRC+ in 2017 with roughly the same line-up they were #4. even tho the season is still young, i don't think it's a fluke. risky start...
  5. after multiple seasons of under-performing based on his pedigree and hype, i feel like bauer finally began to live up to some of the expectations in the second half of 2017. he still ended the season with an ERA above 4, but from July through the end of the season he sported an ERA of 3.15 with a 10.15 K/9. His WHIP was still kind of iffy at 1.35, but advanced metrics pegged him as a 3.60/3.49 pitcher during that stretch. he continued his good play during the postseason by not allowing a single earned run over 8 innings and striking out 11 batters. i think he's a perfect candidate to fly under the radar a bit, based on last seasons overall numbers, and provide some value on draft day. i definitely think he can beat his steamer projections of 4.14 ERA and 8.95 K/9. anyone else?
  6. Wouldn't it make sense to follow the lead of MLB? If a player is allowed to play in the real life game, why can't we play him in fantasy? (Soto, Rendon for example)
  7. falling at #3 the fWAR leaderboard at 6.9, rendon put up arguably his best stats in the majors in 2017. items of note: OBP over .403 (highest of career) more walks (highest % of career: 13.9) than strikeouts (lowest % of career: 13.6) will be in age 27 season in 2018 iso of .232, (highest of career) handful of SB stellar defense, which means he's always in the lineup when healthy fantasy: i think rendon could be a candidate to make the jump into the 1st round discussion in 2019, assuming he duplicates or improves on 2017. he doesn't have any one tremendously elite skill, so i'm not sure he'll have the justification to make it to first round status, but it's worth talking about. real life: i think he's defiantly trending toward MVP candidate status in the future if he keeps it up. didn't he get some MVP votes in his first full MLB season? what's the downside to this guy? regression? a fluke? i don't see much change in his batted ball profile, swstr%, hard%, pull%, contact%, etc.. all seem fairly close to his norms. everything seems sustainable, or close to it, at first glance. edit: defiantly trending.. i'm leaving it.
  8. surprised not to see a 2018 thread for this guy.. was a later round darling last season who made his MLB debut at the ripe old age of 20 years old. young, but not over-matched imo, he started off with a bang and kind of faded toward the end. overall i'd say he held his own with a line of 284/338/482 and 10HR / 3SB over 58 games. his projections for 2018 are very similar to his line in 2017: ~275/330/480 with ~20-25HR and a few SB sprinkled in. xStats is a bit more bearish, only predicting a ~260/310/447 line. his adp's at couchmanagers, nfbc, and fantrax are 101, 133, and 91 respectively. these seems about right, maybe a little early but nothing egregious, i don't want to pay for assumed professional growth in my draft, but i think he's definitely one of the guys that can reach the top end of the projections. to me he's one of the solid, middle of the pack 3B options, grouped in with the likes of lamb, moose, bregman, maybe castellanos and a few others. am i off base? do people think he's going to break out and force his way into the top tier 3B group with something like a 30+ HR / 285+ avg season? his defense is evidently a question mark to.. so if he starts off slow to hit and his defense doesn't hold up, this could be a guy who ends up in the minors to figure some things out (i.e. not helping your fantasy team), which greatly concerns me. kind of a rambling post, where my opinion sways back and forth. i love his potential, and minor league track record, but i'm not certain he's going to live up to expectations this season.. seems like he's being drafted at the appropriate spot, but under the assumption his numbers are a "lock," which i don't believe to be the case. i'm not seeing a lot of value.
  9. DJ LeMahieu 2018 Outlook

    I owned LeMahieu in 2016 and he was fantastic.. an OBP north of .400 and an average good enough to win the NL batting crown, while throwing in 11HR and 11SB from your 2B/MI spot. In 2017 he was less impressive, but still had a notable slash line of .310/.374/.409, but with only 8HR and 6 SB. The major issue regarding DJ in 2018 is that his contract with the rockies expired and now he's a FA. obviously he has a great talent for getting on base, but when looking at his home/road splits, there are some concerns. Career home: .333/.392/.451 Career road: .270/.317/.351 DJ has played for the rockies since 2012, so almost all of his stats were created while playing for colorado. if he signs elsewhere in 2018, i'm afraid he could turn out to be supreme disappointment for anyone expecting a repeat of the numbers he's put up the last few seasons. i guess the hope is that he has advanced his skills in the last few seasons and his future stats will be greater than his career stats, which are dragged down by a few seasons of average-ness. if he signs back with colorado i'm all on board, but if it's anywhere else, he's probably a DND for me. am i seeing things clearly or is there something i'm missing?
  10. 2018 Call Up Watch Thread

  11. July 2nd Prospects

  12. Forrest Whitley - RHP HOU

    i won't argue that you're wrong. i should have give a bit more info, i think mchugh/peacock could act as a short term fill in, like if someone went on the DL for a fews weeks or whatever. if something big time went down, season ending potentially, probably whitley.. but i'm a believer in james with his increased velocity and nonlinear growth development. love to see him get a shot.
  13. Kenta Maeda 2018 Outlook

    Yeah man, you're so right. I thought they were in Texas. 100% wrong on my part.
  14. Forrest Whitley - RHP HOU

    i agree with tryptamine. josh james is a name that i could see getting an opportunity if there happen to be a need. they've also got mchugh and/or peacock that could transition to the rotation.
  15. Middle Relievers 2018 Outlook

    he may have a third pitch, but he's not using it. he's exclusively thrown four seamers and sliders in the majors this season. he threw the exact same pitch mix in 2015 and 2016, also. in 2015 he avg'd 94.55 on his four seamer, and that dropped slightly to 93.98 in 2016. in 2017 he didn't log any MLB innings, so there's no data to reference, but so far this season he's averaging 94.03. his slider averaged almost the exact same velocity in all three seasons, 86. his swstr% on his slider has dropped this season: 2015 - 17%, 2016 - 11%, 2018 - 6% his swstr% on his four seamer has increased dramatically this season, though: 2015 - 12%, 2016 - 11%, 2018 - 23% the vertical movement and both horizontal and vertical release points are pretty consistent year to year. the only difference that i see is that the horizontal movement on his four seamer has changed almost three fold this season. (~ -4.3 to -1.7). the spin rate on his four seamer has increased his season also, going from roughly 2300 rpm's in 2015 & 2016 to 2400 in 2018. basically everything looks the same to me other than a little less movement and little more spin on his four seamer.
  16. Kenta Maeda 2018 Outlook

    thank goodness there's only one park that's more hitter friendly. (coors) i agree that he didn't look good, but those warning track shots are less fearsome almost anywhere else.
  17. Kris Bryant 2018 Outlook

    few interesting stats. according to statcast: his avg exit velocity this season (87) is consistent with last season (87), but both are a little lower than in 2015 and 2016 (89 in both). nothing that screams "problem" his avg launch angle is actually higher this season (19) than last (16), and more in line with 2015 and 2016 (19 and 20). again, nothing that jumps out as a negative. the outfield positioning is pretty consistent year to year, where he sees a normal outfield configuration (i.e., not a shift) on about 91% of his pitches. the infield positioning, though, has taken a nose dive this season. bryant has seen a dramatic increase in non-standard infield positioning (i.e., infield shift) on a per pitch basis. 2015 - 77.9% of pitches were with a standard infield position alignment by the defense 2016 - 56.3% 2017 - 62.6% 2018 - 44.6% obviously the infield shift doesn't play much of a role in hitting home runs, but i wonder if it could affect a change in his plate approach? also, this is opponent dependent and if he's played teams that shift more than others at the beginning of the season, it could regress as the season moves on. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  18. Caleb Smith 2018 Outlook

    probably a better conversation for the topic above.
  19. Jonathan Loaisiga 2018 Outlook

    IMO, waivers are meant to give everyone a fair opportunity (i.e., time to realize their available) to acquire a player that is newly available, not to address yahoo's lack of player pool depth. i'm not faulting yahoo in this specific instance, loaisiga wasn't perceived at the beginning of the season as a starting rotation candidate, but here we are. all platforms should be equipped with some sort of ability to facilitate the request of player additions. this would allow for timely addition into the player pool instead of relying on a random occurrence to trigger yahoo personnel to make the addition on their own. back on topic, i know next to nothing about loaisiga, but his limited workload, lack of experience , and MLB home park coupled with shown HR concerns have me less than excited in regular sized leagues. he could certainly surprise, but i'm keeping my expectations in check.
  20. Garrett Hampson COL - SS/IF

    parra, desmond, and mcmahon are all negative in WAR on the season. if he can adequately play CF, SS, and 2b there are definitely locations where he could potentially be an upgrade over the incumbent rockies, even as a utility man. the perceived problem is that the FO cares as much about contracts/money as they do on-the-field performance.
  21. Shane Bieber- SP CLE

    listed the other day by baseball america as the pitcher in the minors with the best control, seems like he should have his own topic. ( https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/best-tools-in-the-minors/ ) 6'3" 195, drafted in 2016 by cleveland in the fourth round. he's 22 years old, and will be 23 in a couple of months. in 2017 he moved through three levels, going from A -> A+ -> AA with an overall line of 2.86 ERA and 1.125 WHIP through 173 IP. he struck out 162 of 698 batters faced (23%, 8.4 k/9), while only walking 12 (1.7%, 0.5 bb/9, with two of those being intentional). his k-rate in AA was closer to 8 k/9 over a decent sized sample (54 IP). he started 2018 in AA and his first game looked pretty good: 6IP, 2H, 9K, 0BB i'm a sucker for guys with control, and if he can main some semblance of a decent k-rate, i think he's worth monitoring. a search of the minor forums showed that @thewallsaround is the only person who's mentioned him, and i thought some other folks might be interested. at this time i don't have any info regarding his repertoire and/or velocity, but if/when time permits i'll do some more digging. this was a cursory stat-line scouting report.
  22. 2018 Call Up Watch Thread

  23. 2018 Call Up Watch Thread

  24. Robbie Ray 2018 Outlook

    in 2017 ray dazzled with a K/9 of 12.11 and an ERA at 2.89. his FIP/xFIP stand at 3.72/3.49 so I don't expect a sub 3 ERA again this season. one item that's been mentioned before, and i do believe is of note is that he has one of the hardest contact rates of all pitchers in the league. filter by pitchers with at least 60IP, and ray ranks as #7 hardest hit pitcher with a 40.4% hard hit rate. he was successful despite this, and i'm not convinced it's a problem, but it's certainly worth noting. he's a pitcher for the diamondbacks, so there's also the possibility that a humidor will be helping his cause in the future. nothing is certain, but i think it's going to happen at some point. in 2016 ray had FIP/xFIP of 3.76/3.45 in 2017 ray had FIP/xFIP of 3.72/3.49 those are very consistent numbers from one season to the next.. his strikeouts were up a bit in 2017, while his walks were also up a bit in 2017 compared to 2016, but the major difference was his babip of .352 in 2016 vs .267 in 2017.. which i'm sure were a huge part of why his ERA fell from 4.9 in 2016 to 2.89 in 2017. i like ray a lot, but i think a lot of 2017 was luck driven and while i don't think he's a 4.9 ERA guy, i'm not buying him at a 2.9 ERA either. steamer projects 3.66 and i'm right there with them, split the middle and i think it's about right. i don't think he's in the tier with kluber, sale, and kershaw's of the MLB, but i do think he's probably in the next tier. maybe with some guys like carrasco, muccullers, darvish, archer, etc solid SP2 or true ace in 2018?
  25. roster-resource has winker penciled in as a starter in LF, but i can't find anything online that confirms this. usatoday (yeah, i know) claims that winker will start in RF. everything i can find actually states the opposite, that price has said he doesn't forsee any regulars losing their job in the off season. bona fide logjam unless someone gets moved. i mostly play in points league or OBP leagues, so i would love to see winker stick around.. but even beyond that, i think he's got a little more juice in his bat than he showed during his time at AAA. i'm not sold that he's going to maintain a 200+ ISO in the bigs, but 160-170 doesn't seem impossible. small ball park and juiced balls should help him out, and he's left handed, which i think GAB is even a little more friendly toward. yeah he's a deep league asset, but if he finds regular playing time, i think he could surprise some folks. i'm thinking 15-20 HR with a 350+ OBP. obligatory steamer projection: 37 G, 149 PA, .276/.359/.423 4 HR, 2 SB