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Everything posted by osb_tensor

  1. rotoworld mock draft pick discussion thread

    biggest takeaway i see so far is four pitchers in the top 15 selections...
  2. falling at #3 the fWAR leaderboard at 6.9, rendon put up arguably his best stats in the majors in 2017. items of note: OBP over .403 (highest of career) more walks (highest % of career: 13.9) than strikeouts (lowest % of career: 13.6) will be in age 27 season in 2018 iso of .232, (highest of career) handful of SB stellar defense, which means he's always in the lineup when healthy fantasy: i think rendon could be a candidate to make the jump into the 1st round discussion in 2019, assuming he duplicates or improves on 2017. he doesn't have any one tremendously elite skill, so i'm not sure he'll have the justification to make it to first round status, but it's worth talking about. real life: i think he's defiantly trending toward MVP candidate status in the future if he keeps it up. didn't he get some MVP votes in his first full MLB season? what's the downside to this guy? regression? a fluke? i don't see much change in his batted ball profile, swstr%, hard%, pull%, contact%, etc.. all seem fairly close to his norms. everything seems sustainable, or close to it, at first glance. edit: defiantly trending.. i'm leaving it.
  3. after multiple seasons of under-performing based on his pedigree and hype, i feel like bauer finally began to live up to some of the expectations in the second half of 2017. he still ended the season with an ERA above 4, but from July through the end of the season he sported an ERA of 3.15 with a 10.15 K/9. His WHIP was still kind of iffy at 1.35, but advanced metrics pegged him as a 3.60/3.49 pitcher during that stretch. he continued his good play during the postseason by not allowing a single earned run over 8 innings and striking out 11 batters. i think he's a perfect candidate to fly under the radar a bit, based on last seasons overall numbers, and provide some value on draft day. i definitely think he can beat his steamer projections of 4.14 ERA and 8.95 K/9. anyone else?
  4. Nathan Peterman 2017-2018 Outlook

    An inept coaching staff is what's going on Buffalo.
  5. Trevor Bauer 2018 Season Outlook

    love the responses! i remember when this guy was a headcase with the diamondbacks a few year back. i recall he threw a ton of different pitches and refused to work with the catchers, basically shaking off everything they called for, wanting to call his own pitches, usually to his own detriment. i wonder if his pitch selection shows a little more maturity where he's actually listening to coaches and catchers and not trying to out think them. either way, good info on the curveball usage in the second half. the indians seem to have a knack for getting the most out of their pitchers the last few years and cleveland seems like a perfect place for him to flourish and grow. interesting tidbit i just noticed.. he's only 26 years old. same age as wacha, cole, stroman, teheran, and gausman. lots of time to grow for all of these guys.
  6. Jordan Montgomery 2018 Outlook

    cc, garcia, and pineda are all three FA, according to sportrac.
  7. Jordan Montgomery 2018 Outlook

    guaranteed is probably too strong of a word this early in the off-season, but after tanaka, gray, and severino who else do they have? they'll need to pick up a SP or be forced to look at both chance adams and montgomery as starters. montgomery was surprisingly good last season, and i think he's solid, but that would be an awfully thin rotation to start the season with. edit: i guess chad green could be stretched out... seems like i read somewhere this was at least being discussed.
  8. Derrick Henry 2017 Outlook

    what an interesting conversation. what is the premise that's being discussed, whether henry is good or not? or whether henry is better than murray? or something different?
  9. Aaron Judge 2018 Season Outlook

    yes, it is. when someone specifically excludes seven days in a month to ensure the numbers meet specific criteria, that's hand selecting the data to meet a narrative.
  10. Aaron Judge 2018 Season Outlook

    but you could do that with any random grouping of days for any player.. i believe that's called cherry picking. for example, from 08/22 to 09/09 he hit .211. does that negate your claim of him hitting below .200 during a time-frame that included this smaller time-frame? also, i believe his high mark was 06/12 (game 59) when he was at .347. look i understand what you're saying. he had a long stretch were his average was crap. i get it.. but the whole point of an average is to get a typical number for a set of data, not to look for the worst possible scenario.
  11. Aaron Judge 2018 Season Outlook

    #FakeNews july .230 aug .185 sept .311
  12. Shohei Otani - SP/OF Japan

    i think @The Big Bat Theory hit the nail on the head with his answer... it would not be in Otani's best interest to share this information until after negotiations. i've not seen anything that mentioned a preferred team, so i'm assuming he's not said, and will not say, until after he signs.
  13. I owned LeMahieu in 2016 and he was fantastic.. an OBP north of .400 and an average good enough to win the NL batting crown, while throwing in 11HR and 11SB from your 2B/MI spot. In 2017 he was less impressive, but still had a notable slash line of .310/.374/.409, but with only 8HR and 6 SB. The major issue regarding DJ in 2018 is that his contract with the rockies expired and now he's a FA. obviously he has a great talent for getting on base, but when looking at his home/road splits, there are some concerns. Career home: .333/.392/.451 Career road: .270/.317/.351 DJ has played for the rockies since 2012, so almost all of his stats were created while playing for colorado. if he signs elsewhere in 2018, i'm afraid he could turn out to be supreme disappointment for anyone expecting a repeat of the numbers he's put up the last few seasons. i guess the hope is that he has advanced his skills in the last few seasons and his future stats will be greater than his career stats, which are dragged down by a few seasons of average-ness. if he signs back with colorado i'm all on board, but if it's anywhere else, he's probably a DND for me. am i seeing things clearly or is there something i'm missing?
  14. Shohei Otani - SP/OF Japan

    https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-stove-shohei-otanis-japanese-team-says-it-will-post-him-this-offseason/ Seems like confirmation that Otani will play in the MLB next season. Still a few hurdles, but definitely heading the right direction.
  15. in 2017 ray dazzled with a K/9 of 12.11 and an ERA at 2.89. his FIP/xFIP stand at 3.72/3.49 so I don't expect a sub 3 ERA again this season. one item that's been mentioned before, and i do believe is of note is that he has one of the hardest contact rates of all pitchers in the league. filter by pitchers with at least 60IP, and ray ranks as #7 hardest hit pitcher with a 40.4% hard hit rate. he was successful despite this, and i'm not convinced it's a problem, but it's certainly worth noting. he's a pitcher for the diamondbacks, so there's also the possibility that a humidor will be helping his cause in the future. nothing is certain, but i think it's going to happen at some point. in 2016 ray had FIP/xFIP of 3.76/3.45 in 2017 ray had FIP/xFIP of 3.72/3.49 those are very consistent numbers from one season to the next.. his strikeouts were up a bit in 2017, while his walks were also up a bit in 2017 compared to 2016, but the major difference was his babip of .352 in 2016 vs .267 in 2017.. which i'm sure were a huge part of why his ERA fell from 4.9 in 2016 to 2.89 in 2017. i like ray a lot, but i think a lot of 2017 was luck driven and while i don't think he's a 4.9 ERA guy, i'm not buying him at a 2.9 ERA either. steamer projects 3.66 and i'm right there with them, split the middle and i think it's about right. i don't think he's in the tier with kluber, sale, and kershaw's of the MLB, but i do think he's probably in the next tier. maybe with some guys like carrasco, muccullers, darvish, archer, etc solid SP2 or true ace in 2018?
  16. Martellus Bennett 2017 Season Outlook

    b-b-but everyone says he's a quitter and a p.o.s. surely no one on these forums would assign blame without knowing the whole story!
  17. Rodriguez is not expected to return to pitching for six months after undergoing surgery to reconstruct the patellofemoral ligament in his right knee - Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. (10/17/2017) so i guess we shouldn't expect him to pitch in MLB games until maybe may/june? best case scenario..
  18. Fangraphs - 2018 projections up

    chris sale projected to pitch 321 innings over 49 starts.... yes, please.
  19. 2017 Handcuff Thread

    I thought this was a pretty handy topic last season.. who are the must own handcuffs? I like Jonathan Williams, DMC, and maybe james conner?
  20. DJ LeMahieu 2018 Season Outlook

    well i feel silly now.. i went looking at fangraphs and it showed his contract ending in 2017. i never though about him still having arbitration time left.
  21. Aaron Judge 2018 Season Outlook

    i don't follow the statement regarding david wright in 2016. in looking at statcast for both 2016 and 2017 i see the judge was #1 in avg exit velocity, avg exit velocity of FB/LD, and % of batted ball events that had an exit velocity of 95+ MPH. certainly an argument can be made for stanton, as he had the hardest hit ball in 2017 and the farthest hit HR in 2016. in my mind, though, having the highest average exit velocity for two years in a row shows a more consist ability to put power on the ball. does it mean he has more row power? who knows... i think so, but maybe it just means he makes better contact. and yes, the 2016 sample size was small for judge: 43 batted ball events, but this met the default criteria for inclusion on the list, so i'm using it.
  22. Austin Barnes had what I would call a breakout year in 2017. With a sample size of 102 games (262 PA) he slashed 289/408/486 with an impressive 15% BB rate. He cooled off a bit in the playoffs, batting only .217 with an OBP lower than .300. The important thing to note about the playoffs was that Barnes was getting starts over Grandal. I don't think he can sustain a 400+ OBP in 2018, but the walk rate isn't a fluke. Just eyeballing his minor league stats it appears his minor league career walk rate is around 12-14%, so he definitely should be a contributor in OBP leagues. In 2016 he chipped in 18 steals, but only had 4 in the 2017 season.. again with only 262 PA, though. I think in 2018 this guy can be everything JT Realmuto is hyped to be, only cheaper on draft day. I snatched him up toward the end of the season in my keeper league and think he's most definitely worth a look if you don't want to splurge on one of the high priced name-brand catchers. He comes with C/2B/MI eligibility, which is nice, but obviously his best value is at catcher. If he gets full time starts over Grandal, i think he can produce a full season slash line around 270/350/440 with maybe 12 HR and 10 SB. Am I the only one banking on this guy being a solid producer next year?
  23. Rhys Hoskins 2018 Season Outlook

    i'm thinking his contemporaries are somewhere in the ballpark of cruz, springer, k.davis, and j.upton. obviously those guy have varying skill sets that make them a little bit different... more steals for upton and springer, while i think hoskins will have a better obp than davis. so they're not exact comps, but close. i think ADP will be a bit lower than those proven commodities, but somebody will probably reach. i honestly don't know where those guys are going, so i don't want to embarrass myself by guessing rounds or overall numbers. 275/350/500 with 30-35 HR and a few steals to boot.
  24. a word of warning to anyone thinking about using fantrax with the treasurer option: if any of the managers in your league require replacing mid-season, you will be forced to fully refund them before you can replace them. i tried to pin fantrax down on a specific date we could remove inactive owners and not have to refund them, but they went against their [at the time] written rules and wouldn't give a specific date. think about that for a minute.. if someone in your league abandons their team and you try to replace them in august, it is mandatory for you to fully refund the original owner. this then forces the new owner to either pay the full league fee or you may have to modify the winner payouts for the season. i was not happy, in fact i was furious that i had to refund a turd who screwed his team over and then left us high and dry with no notice... we certainly will not be using their treasury option in the future and i recommend everyone use leaguesafe or some other option. obviously replacing owners mid-season is much more important in dynasty/keeper leagues than redrafts.