FootballFan101

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  1. Madison Bumgarner 2018 Outlook

    That's certainly true, but I'm starting him today. He's a totally different pitcher at home. (1.49 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at home compared to 5.02 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road). I'm not expecting him to get the win though. It's hard to imagine the Giants ever actually scoring a run again.
  2. Madison Bumgarner 2018 Outlook

    He's been unstartable on the road all season.
  3. Jake Arrieta 2018 Outlook

    Honestly he's been waiver wire caliber over the past 3 months since the start of June, below average in every fantasy category: 4 wins, 4.19 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 66 Ks in 86 IP Those stats don't include tonight's disaster.
  4. Rich Hill 2018 Outlook

    Hill's stats since coming off the 2nd DL stint have been great. As someone who didn't draft him but picked him up in May when he was dropped after going on the DL for the second time, I've been thrilled with the production from him. Wins have been a little disappointing (because of the Dodgers offense not him), but otherwise he's been fantastic.
  5. Jake Arrieta 2018 Outlook

    Nice story, except he has regressed clearly, by almost two full runs since April/May (2.16 ERA before, 4.05 since).
  6. August Closer Thread 2018

    Leclerc had an off day today. He only struck out 1.
  7. Jake Arrieta 2018 Outlook

    Standard 5x5 Roto leagues have seasonal innings limits. The reason Arrieta is ranked 34th on the player rater is because of his 3.25 ERA. If his ERA corrects to the 3.50-3.75 range (which is what you said you expected) to go along with that miniscule K rate, he wouldn't be worth a lot in fantasy (a SP 5 or SP 4 at best)
  8. Jake Arrieta 2018 Outlook

    A 3.50-3.75 ERA, when it comes along with a K rate of less than 7 per 9 IP, isn't worth much in fantasy, especially in innings capped leagues. [Removed Cool Story]
  9. Jake Arrieta 2018 Outlook

    He's just been getting luckier again over the past 3 weeks, not really pitching much better. His xFIP is still almost the same during that period and his K rate while a little better is still very weak. And by the way, your July 29th-August 18th timeframe for post ASB stats conveniently ignores his first post ASB where he was absolutely destroyed by the Padres. Anyways, I'm done arguing about this. If you want to consider Arrieta as a 2.16 ERA caliber pitcher like he had in April/May, then go ahead, that's your right, but I'm certainly happy with the trade I made.
  10. Jake Arrieta 2018 Outlook

    I never said Arrieta was exactly equal to Lester. I was just using Lester as a more extreme example of ERA generally correcting itself over time. When I traded Arrieta at the end of May, he had a 2.16 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP despite only 6.2 K/9 IP (17.2 K%) and a 4.07 xFIP. Since the start of June, Arrieta has a 4.05 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and 6.9 K/9 IP (18.3 K%). Interestingly, his xFIP since the start of June is 4.11, almost exactly the same as his xFIP from April/May. Arrieta's still pretty much the same pitcher he was in April/May, just not getting lucky anymore. You can say what you want, but clearly there has been an ERA correction with Arrieta over the past 2 and 1/2 months and I'm certainly glad I traded him in May.
  11. Jake Arrieta 2018 Outlook

    FYI, I own zero shares for Arrieta. I drafted him in one league (at pick 123, a little below his ADP, but still a bad pick I'll admit). Even though his ERA and WHIP were good the first two months of the year, I was alarmed by how few batters he was striking out and [Removed Cool Story] If you want to go ahead and ignore FIP and xFIP just because they aren't fantasy categories, then go ahead. But to me, it's very concerning when there's such a difference between ERA and FIP/xFIP. Just ask Jon Lester owners about ERA correction.
  12. Rich Hill 2018 Outlook

    5 IP, 4 ER against the Mets in June doesn't qualify as a bad start?
  13. Rich Hill 2018 Outlook

    He has gotten it together after the first inning, but unfortunately the first inning counts too. To me, a 9.00 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in what was a favorable matchup is extremely disappointing.
  14. Walker Buehler 2018 Outlook

    This guy is an absolute stud. His stuff is just so filthy. Take away that one relief appearance (when he should have been pitching in a rehab game) and his numbers are elite. And I think the best is yet to come for him this season. Simply put, if someone offered me Kershaw for Buehler right now, I'd decline it. Maybe people will call me crazy for that but I just feel than Buehler's stuff is better than Kershaw's stuff and that Kershaw is clearly no longer the pitcher he was 2011-2016 when he was the best in the game.
  15. Rich Hill 2018 Outlook

    Definitely didn't see this disaster coming against a Mariners offense ranked 22nd in baseball and ice cold since the All Star break. Overall Hill has been pretty good since coming off the DL, but he's definitely had some real stinkers vs bad offenses (Mets, Padres, Mariners)