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thezing1 last won the day on February 6

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  1. 100% agree with what I bolded. Unfortunately, I do not know if Pache has the instincts. Here are his games played per steal attempt over the last 3 years: 3.6, 2.6, 8.1. That is a massive drop off in attempts last season and he stole less than he was caught. Sure, maybe a little bit has to do with being young in AA, but in the minors is when you are supposed to learn and make all of your mistakes. He is really fast, but I am worried that he lacks the ability to steal bases. My concern is that he just goes the route of power and stops developing the steals component of his game. I am still concerned about what the chase of power will do to his steals until I see his steals attempts and success rate rise. If he sells out for power he needs to reach a high ceiling there to offset the fantasy impact to his steals. It basically comes down to a question of 5/35; 10/25; 15/20; 20/15; 25/8; 30/5.... or some sort of arch resembling that and where you think optimal fantasy value exists. Crawford never sold out his steals to pursue his mediocre (at best) power. I just hope Pache does the same and I really, really, really hope he runs 50+ times this year even if he gets thrown out 25+ times. I can't think of a player that became great at SB in the majors that didn't demonstrate or hone the skill in the minors with reps.
  2. All this weight gain is good for the power, but I can't see this being great for his speed. I always thought his upside was tied to his steals potential. It is easy to find HRs and hard to find steals. This is nitpicking for sure, so it isn't that big of a deal, but I am more interested in his steals attempts this year than his HR total. He is on my dynasty team so I am invested.
  3. If they don't it will only be for a couple of weeks so they can control him for another year. It sucks, but that is the way the game is played. Majority of people would argue that if the Reds were smart they would not start the season with Senzel. If they controlled him for another season they would essentially locks in his prime years or they could negotiate a long term contract that buys out a season or two of free agency and completely locks in his prime. I would love to see the Reds treat him right and play him out of the gate...and in return Senzel shows appreciation through loyalty. But, finding clubs to give up a year of control for a couple of weeks in March/April is tough to find.
  4. If we are talking fantasy the answer to your question is quite a few. Harden regardless of CP3 being on the court or not, KAT, Curry, Jokic, Dame, PG, KD and a couple others. Lebron has flaws as a fantasy player that you need to build around (FT%, TO). Obviously, league settings matter, but Lebron has not been in that top 3/early first round tier for a few years now. Lebron hasn't necessarily gotten worse, it is more that other players have reached insane fantasy production and surpassed him.
  5. Kobe is driven, but almost all of the all time greats in the major sports leagues are as well. Very few instances where an athlete reaches the highest level of their sport and isn't obsessed. Honestly, Lebron falls in the same category of being driven. Word gets out about his workouts being the stuff of legend and his IQ and knowledge is off the charts. But that is usually what it takes and a lot of people push to that extent. Kobe gets a lot of the attention for this, but he isn't on a level that no one else has been. He has pushed to extreme heights, but there are others up there with him. I think everyone knows every Lakers fan holds a place in their heart for Kobe. I don't think any Lebron fan is angling to surpass Kobe in the pecking order of all time great Lakers. I think that "debate" was concocted by talking heads looking to pass time and stir emotion. But Lebron and Kobe are both great. Guys who have won with both of them will say they are the best and blah, blah, blah. They are just different. MJ is my guy and it took me a long time to accept that he needed Pippen and Pippen is an all time great. MJ handled Rodman and became a ridiculously loaded team. MJ needed help to win and let's not pretend that Kobe won championships without a ridiculously loaded roster around him. Yes, he got role players to buy in, but he got to play with the most dominant big man in the game at that time in his prime in Shaq. He got to play with another HOFer in his prime in Pau. You don't win championships if you aren't great, you have a lot of talent around you, and if your team isn't bought in. So who cares who is better or worse....they are both great.
  6. This DND type of talk is just driven by emotion. Once the dust settles on this season I expect you will have a different opinion. The groin injury caused the Lakers to slide and caused this rest down the stretch. No groin injury = yet another season playing 70+ games. Lebron is still a freak. If he doesn't have a better roster around him next year maybe you can drop him in your rankings, but if he has a star to play with then he is going to put up stats and he is a very, very strong bet to play 70+ games.
  7. You can simplify this question because tatis, kiriloff, alvarez are for sure keepers. So it is pick three of Nolan Gorman, Nate Pearson, Larnach, Luis Garcia (WSH), and Valera. I would probably lean towards Gorman, Larnach, Pearson.
  8. I think in a keeper format the clear choice is Kris Bryant. I am fearful of how long Altuve's prime will be. I think we are going to see him in the teens for HRs and less than 30 steals pretty soon. Goldy's elite value was tied to his steals. I don't see him running in his early to mid 30's.
  9. He also missed a year with TJ that probably set him back a bit with developing his power. I think the Yelich career power arch is really good comp. I think Kiriloff is a pure hitter and I find it refreshing to see a hitter that doesn't have a 25+K% selling out for power. I hope the Twins challenge Kiriloff with competition this year. Rankings accelerated for him, but it almost feels like the lost year of development hasn't full set in. Really like him as a prospect and think his floor is high and his ceiling is still in that TBD territory as he makes massive strides with a healthy offseason to develop.
  10. I really did not like to see the amount of pitches he was allowed to throw chasing the no-hitter. 134 in a start is going to come back and get you, especially when you are still stretching out workload. I think he has the stuff to excel. I think it comes down to command. He is young and I think he will continue to take steps. He represents a good bit of upside at his ADP and if your settings allow he could be a very nice play on the road as his home/away splits were quite extreme.
  11. I don't understand the Simmons/Philly thing...are you saying he would fetch criticism joining up with the young Simmons? I don't think Lebron went to LA to retire and give it "one last shot." That isn't giving him enough credit as a competitor. I don't care about GOAT and I don't care about Finals records. Lebron is a competitor at his core. A competitor does not just pack it in and try to get lucky one last time in the last 3-5 years of his career. I doubt he was just willing to accept that he wouldn't be in the Finals after living there for most of his career. Assuming he is content giving it a shot is kind of an excuse for the franchise and the star player. I am shocked at the collapse of the Lakers, but I don't think it is a big deal in the grand scheme of things. Similar to how I just don't think the Clippers making the playoffs really makes a difference for them next season. No one will care about this season when they scheme for next season in free agent pitches. As much as there was wishful thinking to start the year, this Lakers team was never expected to compete for the championship this year. Let's keep that in perspective. If you honestly bought that KCP was bread that fell from heaven I don't know what to say. This team is in transition. When they pitch in the offseason they are going to look in the future with the targeted free agent + Lebron in a scheme and supporting cast. This season just doesn't matter because you are buying the future, not the past. This isn't a Lebron problem either. People like to kick people when they are down. I think Lebron is being annoying, but he isn't the reason they are here unless you want to blame his injury. This is 100% a front office problem. They missed on PG13 and that is a MASSIVE miss. They had a superstar that wanted to be a part of the franchise for reasons beyond winning, and they didn't even take a swing at it. They are in a high stakes game and they blinked. People will play with Lebron, but he isn't the only game in town. The Warriors attracted KD because of their system and style. Honestly, who wouldn't want to play with them where they share the ball and play without ego compared to being on Lebron's team. That isn't saying Lebron as a teammate is bad, it is just saying something is better. The Lakers will get better and are going to sign someone. If I am guessing it will be Jimmy Butler.
  12. I think everyone that throws overhand is at risk. There is nothing natural about throwing a baseball overhand so my default position on pitcher risk is that no one is risk free. Elbows and TJ really don't concern me much these days. It is almost a right of passage if you are a hard throwing pitcher that uses heavy breaking stuff (slider, split, etc.) I actually find myself targeting the guys that have recently had TJ because I would bet their elbow has more tread on it than the pitchers who have yet to get TJ. Hopefully I am explaining that properly. Shoulders concern me. I think it is very difficult to overcome shoulder stuff and I am in the boat where I need to see it before I trust you. We are in agreement there. But the shoulder injury needs to be substantial and not tendinitis. Lastly, I am not trying to attack/debate you and hope I am not coming across that way. Just supplementing your initial post being concerned about command regression. I hope my message reads like someone adding to the discussion and not someone trying to win a discussion.
  13. I think you are missing one big piece of the context. He has been healthy, which has allowed him to evolve as a pitcher. The ability to throw innings has led to him being able to improve his command. I don't expect him to lose this skill. I have no idea if he will break down again or when that happens. All I know is that he is mature, he doesn't have a lot of miles on his arm, his team is looking to compete, and he is in his prime. I like all of those things a lot and someone once said this and it sticks in my head a lot....everyone is injury prone until the're not. He has demonstrated health. I know the counter to this thought. I just think he is at that age where he knows how to allow himself to string together a healthy season.
  14. Based on where they are today, Kershaw can play catch and Sev can't throw so by default it is worse than Kershaw. Neither are good though. If he felt the shoulder on 1 throw than I would be very, very concerned. If he couldn't get loose and scratched himself that is a little more promising. In general, there are so many promising, upside arms that I would rather draft a healthy player than risk it on Sev until the price gets REALLY discounted. But 2 weeks off and re-evaluate is pretty standard. Either way, I am not overly interested and since the Yanks got Paxton I am sure they are fine being more patient.
  15. You can simplify though. Bregman in the second is the lock. Then you run your projections off of your keepers and Bregman and compare that to the target stat totals you need to get to compete in each category for your league and see what pairing makes the most sense. Then make the decision of Goldy or Freeman. Then Staton or Marte. And then comp the winner of those H2H's with Sale and run it through your target stats and see what pairing gives you the easiest/most likely path to getting those stats. Does that make sense? The other issue you have to consider is that after these snake picks you are going to be out 3/4/5 and back again in the 6th. You are going to get one crack at these elite players and then it is going to be a drop off for you between picks. Pitching is probably going to be deeper than hitting, but a lot depends on the keepers of your competition so only you know that info. I like Stanton a lot. I think he will settle in quite nicely in year 2. I like Stanton more than Goldy/Freeman. I just don't know if Stanton > Marte once you crunch your numbers and figure out the best way to leverage the competitive advantage of your keepers.