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thezing1 last won the day on June 30

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  1. Josh Hart 2018-2019 Season Outlook

    I hear ya...and I know you never said he would match the stat line and that was my opinion. I think we are differing in the minute projection primarily. I also think his minutes this year will be in a lesser role, but that just complicates the discussion. But maybe complicated discussion is what the offseason is all about.
  2. Josh Hart 2018-2019 Season Outlook

    You have to remember context in that 11 game sample set you are referencing from last year. The Lakers were in tank mode, Ingram and Ball missed almost all of that stretch, BroLo/Randle/KCP were not getting their full minutes....AND Hart did that work in 35 mpg!!! He isn't getting 35 mpg and assuming a top 1 or 2 scoring option role this season if the Lakers are healthy. The chances that stat line is matched or exceeded is very small this season if everyone is healthy. And I don't see a way the Lakers rest/tank this season with Lebron on board. That just isn't going to happen and I would guess they are in a tight race for seeding/playoff spot so the rotation will only get tighter as the season wears on. Just my two pennies. I respect your analysis, I just disagree with the conclusion based on context. That last game when Hart hit 7 threes I will never forget. It was the difference of 11.5K for me and I remember the context behind Hart down the stretch since he really helped my competitor. Hart had an opportunity and he ran with it. But, he needs the opportunity for 32-36 mpg and I don't see it yet. That said, I see no reason the Lakers should give minutes to KCP. This team is not going to compete in the upper echelon. KCP is just not that good. Develop the youth and see if you have something in Hart IMO.
  3. Josh Hart 2018-2019 Season Outlook

    Exactly what do you see the breakdown of minutes being for the Lakers? 28 mpg is decent, but not a lot and it is not what I consider starter's minutes. 34 mpg and I would be a lot more excited. And what do you project Hart to do this season? Where exactly do you see his fantasy appeal coming from? I also don't understand this assumption that if you aren't on the hype you are "against" a player. I like Hart. I think he is a nice player. I am not going to go crazy and reach for him in a draft though. His value is in 3's, which happens to be the deepest category in fantasy. Maybe I can see an argument for 9 cat since his TO are low. But Hart can score but I need to see more steals before I can get too excited about him. Easy to say "Cream rises to the top" when you are sharing the court with players that won't see NBA action. Come on and be a little fair. Look at that box score and tell me what player aside from Hart is going to play any sort of minutes this year for the Lakers?
  4. I agree with everything you said, but this thread is focused on next season only.
  5. I think I am usually forward thinking and looking pretty deep into things, but you definitely went one step above. I am going to counter with one point. Boston is super deep and they are going to coast into the playoffs and they are probably locking down a top 2 seed without extending themselves. But, that resting down the stretch cuts a lot of ways. Kyrie is injury prone, but he isn't the only important piece. Boston can cycle through and rest two of their starters for long stretches and be fine. Plus, they will want to hit the playoffs on a roll. If you think Kyrie rests come fantasy playoff time then I think you need to consider that ALL celtics will catch some rest down the stretch. Plus, Kyrie isn't a long term piece and a free agent after this year. If they break him they don't have to pay for him. And, if there was a way to rest Kyrie and have him avoid regular season injury the Celtics and Cavs would have figured that out by now.
  6. I love him in dynasty, but I really need to see him in preseason before I pencil him in higher than late rounds. He has a fantasy friendly game and that is obvious. He won't hurt your FT% while getting blocks and that is big. But, I am not making any assumptions on his ability to play high IQ basketball with Conley, Gasol, and SloMo off of a glorified pick up game that is Summer League. If he can be in the right places at the right times then I think he earns his minutes and helps his rookie season. He needs to earn minutes because the Griz forcing his development at the expense of competitiveness will drive Gasol and Conley both out of town and kick off a legit rebuild.
  7. I also think this Grizzlies team will be very high IQ and competitive. I know what you are trying to get at with the 1/1/1 question, but I don't think that way. I think of it more like upside block potential that you get late that doesn't hurt your FT%. But, you need to be able to withstand the hit that puts on your scoring because he will be below average in points. But, having a guy that will block a shot a game and not hurt you from the stripe is a good thing. I think the 1/1/1 is just a quick and dirty excuse to build instead of focusing and analyzing your team construction during a draft. I view it as cap rate versus cash on cash analysis for real estate investing (if that makes sense). Not saying 1/1/1 isn't useful or whatever, just saying it is a little simple.
  8. Harry Giles 2018-2019 Season Outlook

    So now you assume I am on WCS or have been on WCS? I have no idea the leaps you are taking here. Below is exactly the point I am making. I'm not hyping WCS. I'm not bashing Giles. I am saying it is crowded af. But elaborate on the "I'm doing a lot more than that"
  9. I wouldn't look too far into summer league stats. These are glorified pick up games and the sample size is small. Trae Young's game is 3's. He isn't settling, that is just what he is. He will reign in the forced attempts out of the flow, but it is just green light in the summer league for him to find that line of "too" much. The takeaway I had on JJJ was that he is athletic and skilled enough to be on the floor for as many minutes as he can handle in the new age of basketball. His skill set is ideal for the next big man and he needs experience and reps. I don't really care too much about his shooting %. I think his key will be understanding where to be because Gasol and Conley are very smart players and you don't want them getting frustrated with a rookie being in the wrong place. His shot can be improved, but it isn't like we are talking about Lonzo Ball here.
  10. This is going to come down to your rankings. Personally, I traded down from the 1.01 pick to 1.02. The deal was 1.01, 2.19, and a second round pick next year for 1.02, 2.23, 2021 first round pick, and Brogdon. I look at your team and there is no reason you need more blocks. I think the appeal of the top picks is stock bigs and the wild card of Doncic. I would take Booker, but you need to say if this is 8 cat or 9 cat for a legit answer. I would pass on the Kawhi trade. There just isn't a reason for you to do it. Your team is already stacked so why add the injury risk and age to a core that is in its early 20's?
  11. Several Dynasty Trade scenarios!!!

    Not sure your league format, but I would trade DAR for the 4 and 10 pick pretty instantly. I would also trade Tatum for Booker.
  12. I think I am going JJJ, Ayton, Doncic. I agree that it is really difficult. And I am not basing this on this year. I am looking in like 3-4 years when these guys are entering or in their primes.
  13. I agree and it is mainly to do when ranking the top 25ish players. I am not doing this for 200 players. I do think you can start to get some pretty accurate assumptions on rest though. The main point I was trying to make was that you need to consider your format before making your rankings and factoring in "projected health" Oh, this is super important to do if you are going to target injured players, like a Porzingis or Boogie. I think injured players and your top 2 picks are probably the extent of this detailed analysis/projections....or none if you aren't totally nerding out over fantasy bball.
  14. Just wanted to add to this a bit because it isn't so simple for roto. Not all games missed are created equal and a lot of that depends on the format. Let's look at KD and say you are projecting 10 games missed next year. Let's say 6 of those are rest on a B2B and the other 6 are minor/nagging injuries. So KD on a 3 game week resting one game still needs to be played in a weekly lineup league. KD essentially has to be locked in to your lineup if he is just missing 1 game for rest or minor injuries. If KD were to miss 3 weeks with an injury then you get the benefit of a replacement player accumulating some stats in his place. End of the day, resting elite players really really really f*cks you in weekly lineup leagues because you just eat those missed games. Roto or H2H, doesn't matter all that much because it still hurts. If you can daily lineup change for missed games, then the calculation is KD * 90% + 10% * (replacement players stat line) and that will give you the value of KD at the start of the season.
  15. I am a little confused. Vuc plays the 5 so moving him theoretically opens minutes for Bamba. The 4 is where Gordon has to live. We need to see if Isaac can play the 3 or if he is also destined for minutes at the 4 only. I am not too worried about Isaac long term. I think it is totally normal for a rookie to look lost. In this case, it happened on offense and not defense, which is where most rookies look like rookies. Also, this guy was hurt and missed so many games that there isn't too much I am taking away from his rookie year. We never got to see his game evolve or adapt because he was always hurt. I am interested to hear about what he did in the offseason and see him play in preseason. I own him in dynasty and I really like his potential. His stocks alone give him a good floor.