absknicks

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absknicks last won the day on June 29 2017

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About absknicks

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  1. The projection systems are always going to be a little off in terms of projecting Judge's batting average since they're not factoring in his extreme batted ball quality when compared to the rest of the league. He was 2nd in the league in average exit velocity last year and that was coming off shoulder surgery and a still-healing fractured wrist in September. To me, he's safely a .270+ guy for a couple of reasons: 1. Batted ball quality 2. Hits the ball to all fields so it's difficult to shift him 3. Actually hits more groundballs than most elite power hitters which helps boost his BABIP as well (as opposed to the lazy fly balls an popups that really tank a player's BABIP). Lastly, he's shown a penchant for making adjustments that help him dramatically improve these past 2 seasons. His new 2-strike approach with the shortened stride has worked extremely well this Spring and shows that he's capable of making these changes/improvements on the fly when he sees an area of weakness. If I had to project his season I'd say 44-102-.277-.400.
  2. I think he'll ultimately settle in at 5th-6th. Probably 6th to start the season out with the potential to move up to 5th. Depends on how much Voit hits and if the Yankees prefer hitting Gleyber ahead of him since Gleyber is a bit more of an OBP guy than Andujar is.
  3. Well he hit 31 bombs last year so I'm struggling to see how his ceiling is 25 HRs. I do think he's slightly overrated in traditional 5x5 formats, but in an OBP league he's worth the extra dollar.
  4. Interesting velocity trend: https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10954&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2014&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax= Not suggesting he's doing anything against the rules, I'm just fascinated by guys who add velocity as they age and have a ton of innings under their belt.
  5. Cashman has a history of fawning over Bird's swing/power. Like any GM, he doesn't want to admit he was wrong and throw in the towel on a guy he was so adamant about for so long. Personally, I never liked his swing all that much. I thought it was (and still is) long and slow to the ball. Just because a swing is built for lift doesn't make it a great swing.
  6. Yanks have said they're going to give Tulo a bunch of days off to start the season due to all the time he's missed in recent years. They'll slide Gleyber over to SS and put LeMahieu at 2B on those days. He's also going to be the backup 1B for either Voit/Bird and he'll play 3B when Sabathia pitches as the Yankees don't want Andujar over there on those days due to the heat maps that show BIP off Sabathia are disproportionately on the ground and to the third base side. Not even factoring in the very high chance that Tulo stinks and the Yankees decide they need to cut bait or at least relegate him to a part-time role very early on.
  7. I don't really see it. What's his upside? 35 home runs with a terrible batting average? Everyone hits bombs now. Would rather take a flier on a speed guy given the scarcity of steals.
  8. Yanks had him in for a visit. They weren’t willing to go beyond 4 years, IIRC. It was a poor decision. Btw, he wanted to be a Yankee. He’s from NY and made no secret about wanting to play there leading up to his free agency.
  9. He gave up assets for Paxton. Valuable ones. Could've gotten Corbin for just $. That's the key difference. And if you don't think adding Bryce Harper would've made them a better team, I really don't know what to say.
  10. Good piece that touches on a lot of what is wrong with how the Yankees are doing things these days. When you have a championship window, meaning your best players are all young, in their prime and cost controlled, that's the time to scale up the spending, not scale it down. And the fact that Hal and Cashman tried to pull the carpet out from under the fans with the "once we get under the luxury tax, the reins will be off and we'll really spend" is especially frustrating. Doesn't mean they can't win it all this year, just means they haven't maximized their chances to do so when all it would've cost is money (which they basically print).
  11. As a Rich Hill owner these last couple seasons I can say pretty confidently that the best strategy here is to let someone else draft him and when he inevitably stinks it up for the first 2-3 months and deals with a bunch of blister issues, swoop in and try and buy him for cents on the dollar. He may even be dropped in some leagues at that juncture. Much more likely to get a lot of surplus value out of him that way than drafting him, IMO. Edit: Sorry, didn't see street sharks' post above mine basically saying the same exact thing before I posted.
  12. .139 ISO last season. He has power, it just very rarely actually shows up in games.
  13. Without the steals (which almost certainly aren't coming back), even his best case scenario season probably isn't first round worthy.