brockpapersizer

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Everything posted by brockpapersizer

  1. Off-season buy low/sell high

    He just looked like barely cared last year. Didn’t have any good stretches. He said watch out in the second half and did almost nothing. was a little unlucky but not much. I’m ready to be brainwashed by positive spring training reports , but I need the effort from the media here.
  2. Colin Moran 2018 Outlook

    He's going to be the Pirates 3b, and per Roster Resource he's batting 2nd. I like this guy a lot, posted about him last year. The upside isn't sky high and he's more of a deep leaguer. Nothing to get too excited about, but this is obviously huge for his value as he was blocked in Houston. He for some pretty damn good power in the minors last year 18 Home Runs in 338 PAs. He had an amazing 16+% walk rate and almost 10 bb%. I don't expect those numbers in the majors, but even regressing that back some would be impressive. PNC isn't a great park, but for Left Handed Power it's a 97 per stat corner, which is basically league average. Moran is mostly pull power, so I think he has some OK power upside despite the perception of the ballpark. Having juiced balls won't hurt either. I'm not sure he'll have value in 12 teamers right away, but certainly 14 and above with potential for better.
  3. Baseball America 2018 Top 100

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-mlb-prospects-2018/
  4. Off-season buy low/sell high

    I like all of these. Castellanos had a monster second half, but if he’s considered a buy low sure. han ram would have to be very cheap or I’d have to see a lot of positive offseason news on. I loved Han rams value last year and he hurt me in multiple leagues, but I think I’ll be in if it looks good and the price is even cheaper.
  5. Jose Martinez 2018 Season Outlook

    I can’t even https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-sabermetrics-analysis/2018/1/22/16907720/cardinals-jose-martinez-upside-first-base-xwoba-joey-votto-giancarlo-stanton lots of ridiculous lines in here , but my favorite is “So what I’m saying is that Jose Martinez isn’t actually better than Willie Mays—he is actually exactly as good as Willie Mays.”
  6. Edwin Magnifico was third in the league in xWOBA behind only Judge and Votto. What are we expecting in 2018? He has the inside track to start for them at 1st base and will have 1b/OF eligibility. Obviously more valuable in deeper leagues because of how deep 1b is, as well as how plentiful power is, but he could be a productive CI option.
  7. Miguel Cabrera 2018 Outlook

    And Miggy was a better hitter than papi too. It would be weird if he never bounced back even a little. I could see a 30 home run season with a good average
  8. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    He won't have the steals Acuna does, nor the defense..... but in every aspect of hitting, he's a better prospect. I think in a long term Dynasty, wouldn't be crazy to prefer Vlad over him. Steals fade and sometimes leave abruptly for some.
  9. Robert Stephenson 2018 Outlook

    You have to be pretty Damn good to be fantasy relevant as a pitcher in Cincinnati. It's not too far off coors field, and in this era of home runs... I just have no expectations other than just watch list.
  10. Baseball America 2018 Top 100

    Care to elaborate?
  11. Michael Conforto 2018 Outlook

    Don't sleep on Goatforto
  12. Baseball America 2018 Top 100

    Welker didn't play a ton last year and his defense is average, so I'm guessing they were a little conservative on him. They ranked him four in the system and overall said very good things about him.
  13. James Paxton 2018 Outlook

    Not having 200 ip upside isn't the end of the world anymore. I still rather have a guy giving me 140 good innings than 200 near replacement level innings. Team using their bullpen better is another reason innings see down. The average start is getting shorter.
  14. Keeper Help - WHIR

    Mccutchen, Rivero, Allen... Hand/Mazara close behind. I don't think cutting story would be detrimental, in a 10 teamer you should find a decent SS.
  15. Tommy Pham 2018 Outlook

    I wanted to continue our discussion with @The Czar about Pham, but felt it most appropriate to do so here. I'm not sure where Pham goes. I think in deeper 5 OF redraft leagues he's probably a much higher pick than he will be in keepers or shallow leagues, i guess that's obvious though. His numbers last year over more at bats is a first round pick and he can be had later. There are some red flags, his vision will always be a question mark and I think he's more of a candidate to take time off or slump because of it. He's also going to be 30 when next season starts, which is still an athletic prime but he's probably not having a better season and there is some downside in the near future. I think the .368 BABIP is a little high, but not incredibly. I've read some interviews from him. I think as long as he sees the ball well he's going to be a good hitter. I'm not sure where he goes in drafts, but he's one of the most interesting players to track in the offseason. I don't think many players had a 300/400/500 slash line last year Altuve, Blackmon (tecnically 399 OBP) Rendon Trout Goldy (technically 297 AVG) Votto Justin Turner Bryant (technically 295)
  16. Last Dynasty Keeper

    I gues Baerto still has the most upside because he hasn't debuted and plays a shallow position. Personally, none of these guys stand out. I'd just go ahead and take whatever your team needs most OR you think would be most difficult to replace in draft. Thames is fine if you need a CI. Taylor is good if you have an OF spot and need steals. I'd throw both pitchers and Castro back rather easily.
  17. Jordan Luplow CI/OF

    No thread on him. Mashing in AAA after mashing in AA. Walking, hitting for average, and slugging. Not much if any speed though. Seems more deserving of 2nf half PT than Austin Meadows. I think I could be a huge pickup in NL Only leagues and maybe some deepers. Any thoughts?
  18. Jordan Luplow CI/OF

    Id say between meadows and luplow , one gets a lot of at bats this year
  19. Kyle Seager 2018 Outlook

    Quintana was pretty bad last year in fantasy and Seager has only one 30-90 once. I'd say 27, nitpicking I know. Very steady underrated guy tho.
  20. Michael Conforto 2018 Outlook

    Unless you get him super late and have a dl spot, I can’t see how you consider him for this year. People who have followed the Conforto journey on this board know that pains me to say. i think in dynastys there will be a fantastic buy low window at some point l, if not now. Assuming he recovers from injury eventually, he was looking like as monstorous as you can get for an outfielder without steals.
  21. RotoBaller Top 100 Prospect Rankings

    I think he's useful in deep leagues and should get a decent amount of abs this year so he should be high on a rb list, but I don't think he's a future fantasy star. Coors makes a lot of people useful though.
  22. RotoBaller Top 100 Prospect Rankings

    I think the forecaster has a good system that I appreciate. The 1-10 ( even though everyone is basically 6-10 in there) and then a letter for the likelihood they get there. I think Acuna is the only 10. There are a lot of 9s but a lot are some random guys year away with a low percentage, those guys aren't worth owning in a lot of leagues now (unless super deep) but they give very important information in terms of upside. I remember seeing Estevan florial as a 9 e ( which is like top talent upside but a 20 percent or so) before the 2016 season and he's blown up in dynasty prospect rankings now. I'm not saying every guy with a 9 should be owned but a guy who I see consistently with a 9 every year is going to be someone who is important as opposed to a 7 who finally has a starting job or something. I personally feel rb is too playing time based for me, and I guess I don't need help there. My guess isn't worse than theirs for playing time, in my opinion.
  23. Jordan Luplow CI/OF

    It's safe to say luplow probably gets a fair amount of mlb at bats this year. He has a shot to carve out a role it he hits.
  24. RotoBaller Top 100 Prospect Rankings

    I guess I shouldn't knock what other people find useful but I really think there's a better way to approach it. I also find the minor league forecaster by hq to be very helpful, for scouting minor leaguers for scouting minor league. Looking at rb 2018 list. If they are just doing 2018, I think they have Colin moran too low and m Sierra from the marlins now way too high. They put a lot of pitchers who seem to have a lot of 2018 innings projections really high, but I think a lot of those innings will be pretty bad.
  25. RotoBaller Top 100 Prospect Rankings

    The problem is Rotoballer is just ranking for this year. The Judge ranking is not saying "Judge is good", it's saying "judge will be up from the beginning of the year". . They have Tom Murphy ahead of Judge and Vogelbach right behind him. They just list everyone they think with little regard to what they actually think of them. Both ranked Bellinger too low, but considering Bellinger to me was the best prospect who was going to get called up for 2018, I think he should have been higher on a 2018 only list. I use BA/BP lists which are difficult sometimes because its's not for fantasy, but I also play in leagues that aren't categories so they are helpful and I can read between the lines. I don't need a list to know Tom Murphy, Voeglbach, etc is the projected starter, that's what roster resource is for.