Tom Chambers

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Tom Chambers last won the day on January 11

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  1. Demarcus Cousins 2018-2019 Season Outlook

    Blown Achilles are not like most injuries. https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2018/1/27/16940178/demarcus-cousins-achilles-injury-golden-state-warriors-this-is-the-worst Voshon Lenard When the injury happened: A December 2004 game at age 30 Before the injury: Lenard was one of the league’s best shooters, and finished his career just shy of 1,000 made threes. In the 2003-04 season, he averaged 14 points while playing 73 games for the Denver Nuggets. After the injury: Lenard only played 29 more games across two seasons following his torn Achilles tendon. Maurice Taylor When the injury happened: A September 2001 offseason workout at age 24 Before the injury: Taylor was a promising young player for the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Clippers, averaging 14 points and five rebounds in his first four seasons. After the injury: Taylor never even reached his rookie season numbers again, averaging just eight points, although he did play 286 more games. LaPhonso Ellis When the injury happened: An April 1997 game at age 26 Before the injury: Ellis was a high-flier in the 90s in the midst of a career year, averaging 22 points and seven rebounds before the torn Achilles. After the injury: Ellis played six more seasons, but he never even hit 15 points per game again and averaged just 9.3 during 357 more games. Dominique Wilkins When the injury happened: A January 1992 game at age 32 Before the injury: Wilkins is a strange case, and perhaps not perfectly comparable, given his injury happened nearly 25 years ago with few similar examples since. After the injury: No player has ever recovered to the same level that Wilkins did after a torn Achilles. Across Wilkins’ next two seasons, he averaged 28 points and nearly seven rebounds per game on 45 percent shooting. His numbers declined the next year, but Wilkins also turned 35 — it was going to happen eventually. While Elton Brand was a very good player and an All-Star, he was no Boogie. However, their size and age make that comparison probably the best of this group. It's not perfect- I'm not saying it is. But here are Brand's BBM 9 cat rankings in the years before the injury: 06-07: 9 05-06: 4 04-05: 18 03-04: 9 02-03: 11 He played 7 games in 07-08, but as we see he got injured much later in the year (August) than Boogie did (February), so the games played don't really matter and neither does his rank that year (83 on a per game basis but 7 games, so whatever). The years that followed: 08-09: 174 09-10: 99 10-11: 20 11-12: 45 12-13: 129 In a keeper league, things can get muddy, but even then before the 6th or 7th round, I dunno how much value you're really gonna get in 2019-2020. In a redraft league, if you have an IR slot and you're at pick 100, why not? You're gonna end dropping whoever you draft that round eventually anyway, right? But if you expect big things this year, you're PROBABLY going to be disappointed. Don't invest too much.
  2. 2018-2019 Yahoo! Pre-Draft Rankings

    You don't need to pair your 1sts and 2nds "correctly", you just need to avoid wasting an elite FT% guy with a FT% punt guy. That's it. Even elite FG% and FG% punt guys can be paired, frankly. I was in a dozen leagues and won over 3k in yahoo public leagues last year. I won or got second in like five of them, third in like three more. I had a punt strategy in every. single. one. There's more than one way to skin a cat.
  3. Russell Westbrook 2018-2019 Season Outlook

    Conversely, I wish I was drafting early in more leagues, because if he falls to me in the second round I'll s--- myself with pleasure.
  4. 2018-19 Sleepers and Busts

    I play every year, every league like I'll probably make the playoffs and usually I'm right. And so I play the whole year as a means to put myself in the best position once the playoffs start. If that's a 5 seed but with the best team once that week starts, okay. With that in mind, I doubt I'm gonna touch Boogie. Achilles injuries really f--- a person up, there hasn't been one instance in basketball history of it not significantly hurting someone, and before you say Nique or Kobe, they both came back markedly worse, number 1, and number 2, they weren't even big men. Beyond that, even a 100% Boogie wouldn't put up numbers on Golden State like he did last year. There's also the opportunity cost of being short an IR slot for the first half of the season. So maybe he's good, but then considering he's not playing half the year...I just can't see paying what someone else is probably gonna end up paying. I wouldn't pay more/draft higher than an amount or round where you wouldn't cry about dropping a dude anyway. 8th or 9th round. Porzingis I feel a little better about only because people have come back from that injury and when he comes back he's the first option. He's gotta go at least two rounds earlier. Of course, this all changes in keeper leagues. In my main league, which is a two year keeper, I might consider Boogie in the third, Porz in the fourth. But that's getting niche.
  5. The main take away isn't that Durant and Curry are all but DNDs for the price they'd go at (although that's something I'm thinking about), but that Klay and especially Draymond could be undercover fantasy cancers. KD and Curry are obviously first rounders but they do so much that you don't NEED them to make a punt work. Klay is super duper helpful if you're punting AST/STL, though- his value skyrockets to probably second round. Draymond in a points punt can be a first rounder (value, don't take him there obviously). Now imagine your first or second round value dude has a playoff schedule that's 2- 3/4 (if Kerr is anything like last year, you're not getting 5 games out of any fantasy rosterable Warrior in March or April)- 3 schedule. You thought you had value with Draymond. Suddenly it's playoff time and you don't. You're happy with third or fourth in your league? The other punt points studs rise in my personal rankings due to that: Jokic and Lonzo off the top of my head.
  6. Julius Randle 2018-2019 Season Outlook

    The thing is, popcorn stats are usually overvalued. Of course it's possible to get value for him, but most likely other owners in your league are going to think higher of him than they should because of the triple doubles.
  7. Kawhi Leonard 2018-19 Season Thread

    No, when you say market size, it means one thing. The size of the market. There is no other meaning. None. TV Market sizes don't change from sport to sport based on popularity. The only way they can change is when they're artificially made so (ire, the Nats being in the Orioles market, so they pay the Orioles). This is a dumb semantic argument, I'm just pointing out that this isn't subjective, at all. There's a defined thing.
  8. Kawhi Leonard 2018-19 Season Thread

    That's 100% exactly what "market size" is. The size of the TV market. What they're watching doesn't matter at all the definition at all. If you want to say the Raptors aren't popular, or as popular as their media market suggests, that's one thing. But they're a big market team, that's just the fact: they're in a really big market.
  9. Kawhi Leonard 2018-19 Season Thread

    Market size has zero to do with popularity. Large market teams are usually more popular, but small market teams can be popular and large market teams may not. You guys might find this helpful. http://www.tvb.ca/page_files/pdf/cdn_tv_2013-04-29.pdf CTRL+F for Toronto or just go to page 7. This has Toronto behind Philadelphia, but I'm sure that's changed in the last five years. Big market is big market is big market. If we were gonna talk about popularity, we'd use that word.
  10. Kawhi Leonard 2018-19 Season Thread

    No, neither are small media markets. This isn't a subjective thing and it isn't about fan size. It's simply about how many TV-watching households there are in a metropolitan area. Toronto is objectively a very large media market.
  11. Kawhi Leonard 2018-19 Season Thread

    City size and market size aren't the same thing. The actual city of Boston is smaller compared to its metropolitan area than most North American cities are compared to theirs, but people in Brookline don't suddenly become Knick fans because you live on the other side of St Mary's St. The Boston metro is either 5mil or 8mil, depending on how you count it. While the city of Boston and Oklahoma City are very close in size, compare the two ways of counting the OKC metro: it adds up to 1.3mil using the first method and 1.4mil using the second. It's not even close to being close. https://www.stationindex.com/tv/tv-markets Toronto would fit in between Chicago and Philadelphia- also literally multiple OKCs combined.
  12. Trae Young 2018-2019 Season Outlook

    95% of people reading this thread will have to reach to get him. He could be a great source of threes and assists and points (for where he's drafted), but not worth where he's probably gonna go. If I find myself punting FG% and TOs and he's there at 95, alright. But he won't be.
  13. Lonzo Ball 2018-2019 Season Outlook

    Just take the L, bro. I'm not sure why not posting for six weeks while Ball only played 11 games would make me lose the bet. It wasn't even close, and you couldn't even acknowledge it lol
  14. John Collins 2018-2019 Season Outlook

    I was on the Collins train all of last year, from the very beginning. He never seemed to reach the potential production a lot of us thought was for sure coming, but that was mostly due to the Hawks limiting his minutes. New coaches tend to have longer leashes, so I could see Collins getting a longer leash in turn. Top 50 is pretty optimistic, but I wouldn't rule it out, either. He certainly could reach that, but if he's shooting more threes, his FG% is going to suffer and that was probably his biggest draw last year.
  15. Lonzo Ball 2018-2019 Season Outlook

    I guess you mean I didn't post in his thread between 18 December and 2 March? But I'm #1 confused on why that would make me lose the bet and #2 Ball only played 11 (out of 33) games in that stretch anyway...