Chaco Chicken

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Chaco Chicken last won the day on January 28 2018

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  1. What are folks seeing with regards to Berrios's change up? Anybody hear any chatter or catch any games? Nothing impressive from his ST line thus far so I'm guessing he's working heavily on a 3rd-4th pitch.
  2. FWIW, Bird actually has reverse splits. He hits lefties considerably better than righties although last year was more extreme than his albeit short career splits.
  3. Ji-Man Choi and Avisail Garcia combine for >50 home runs
  4. If Davy alters his swing path a bit, say about +10% fly ball rate and + 8 degree launch angle he'll flirt with 40 homers this season. If not he'll go 28/.290 and still be a very useful OF. $7-9 feels right.
  5. I'm secretly hoping for a mystery player to win the 1B job for the Yanks.
  6. I'm going to regret this I think but my home league prefers batting average and at least 2/3rds of the managers are deeply into advanced analytics. OBP is more indicative of on field success, sure, no argument,but people, actual fans, don't watch baseball for walks or hbp. Javy Baez isn't an absolutely electric player because of his patience. Just like Eddie Rosario, or Starling Marte, or Marcell Ozuna, or Andujar, or Odor ,or heck even DJ LeMahieu. AVG is about putting the ball in play and the game sorely needs that. That's why it's standard and why it will likely stay standard. All formats let you make custom leagues with nearly any stat you can manage. I play in another league with OBP instead of average but even their I'd rather see my player go 3 for 4 with 3 singles than 0 for 1 with 3 walks. Fantasy baseball just like real baseball is still a game of excitement not meta-game exploitation.
  7. This reminds me of Dante's 7th circle of hell where they are forced to eternally argue between Bird and Voit. It's got to be Voit though, right? Bird is the rare lefty can't hit righties so he doesn't even have a split advantage.
  8. This guy looks almost exactly like 2013 Corey Kluber. Probably too much to ask him to produce like 2014 Kluber however. Being in the weakest division in baseball doesn't hurt. His splits are a concern but he's working lefties dead red center and with his control, that's partly a pitch calling and confidence issue. His third time through the order penalty is both small sample size and likely exacerbated by being too predictable; very common for a 23 year old in his first go through in the majors. He ran out a 3.30 xFIP and a 3.45 SIERA which is very hard to fake. He threw 114 innings last season and that is large enough sample to show his K rate, BB rate, and HR rate are stable. BABIP has a ways to go before it's stable but he's had high numbers in the minors so unless he alters his approach itt may always be on the high side and add some volatility right now. He's running around $3-4 in auctions at the moment so I'm buying.
  9. After seeing the inputs for Derek's THE BAT and Ariel Cohen's ATC projections I've been using the average of those two. Steamer is a fine floor but they are aggressively conservative on injury/playing time across the league. Depth Charts and ZiPS almost mirrors Steamer but usually are better in terms of counting stats and ABs/PAs. The Fans are largely just wildly optimistic palmistry.
  10. Every season there are half a dozen injury discounted players and risk aversion eliminates any chance for profit. Once the nature of the injury is known its a nice profit point. Buy Severino at the $14 price point post him to DL, add $1 pitcher flyer like Touki, Woodruff, German, etc. Few players have Severino's upside.
  11. I'm buying Severino everywhere at this discount. I'm wagering he'll pitch the last week in April or the first in May.
  12. Jake's got 400 ABs vs Lefties and netted a 46 wRC+. He shouldn't even be on deck versus a left hander. Christian Walker will likely platoon with him and unfortunately for Lamb there are an inordinate number of lefty starters in the NL West. He'll be $1 player on draft day so no real risk but a lot of things need to break right for him to provide any significant rewards.