Rainyy

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Rainyy last won the day on November 1 2014

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About Rainyy

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  1. Injury risk and I am not thrilled with his power/speed upside. Don't think he will come close to 20/20 (or even a 20/20 pace if he misses games).
  2. Reading these comments...why was/is this guy in so many free agent pools? He was a pretty trendy commodity. A number of "experts"/projection systems had him in the Top 100. His ADP was middle rounds too.
  3. Because there's a reason his overall AVG last year was .326, not .408. Votto batted .229 in all of April last year. He's currently one multi-hit game away from matching that AVG. Nothing to worry about.
  4. This. I actually haven't watched many of Villar's ABs, but Buxton looks like it is the first time swinging a bat. There's a spectrum for swinging strikes and I'll be more concerned with the guy who is swinging chest-high on balls in the dirt (maybe Villar is doing this, but no one has reported it).
  5. I'm betting on another 0-5 3k clunker. Still love the guy and own him nearly everywhere. Think he was great value in the 3rd. On a related note, a lot of that Rockies lineup has been struggling. LeMahieu, Blackmon, and Cargo have all ranger from terrible to mediocre. There will be regression to the mean for that lineup and it will be beautiful.
  6. Somewhat related - this time of year I am closely watching the players teams drop because it gives me insight into how reactionary they are. If I see someone drop a ~10th round pick in the first week, then they're at the top of my Swindle List. People who display signs of panicking over small sample sizes are the types of people you should go for. Relatedly, I think part of successfully executing trades is to have the mentality where you are open to trading away/for anyone for the right price. Target the weaker owners, regardless of who they have on their roster. On the psychological aspect, I think the ideal buy low time is generally as soon as possible. Recency bias is a thing and suddenly a struggling player like Miguel Cabrera hits a home run last night and the owner remembers why he valued the guy. Or Stanton's multi home run game last night. The longer you wait, the greater the chance an owner will see that slight glimmer of hope that makes them come to their senses. I've executed 8 trades this week and Paxton is in 3 of them. My rule of thumb for proposing a trade to a sentient person: if the trade doesn't bother you in some way, then it is likely to fail and isn't worth proposing. When a trendy high upside pick like Paxton hits, every owner who drafted him feels a tremendous sense of attachment. Chances are someone else in your league who was also looking to draft Paxton will feel the same way. Use that to your advantage.
  7. I'm really pulling for scurvy. It's had a rough time with the decrease in Transatlantic sailing, and should make for a great underdog story.
  8. Funny you mentioned this - got Mookie today as part of a 3-for-1 package that included Mazara. Got to love panic. Now off to enjoy my Top 5 player. People seriously shouldn't worry about him...
  9. This. I've flagged certain bench players and prohibited myself from dropping them for at least the first month. Broxton is firmly on this list. You will likely not find higher upside on the waiver wire this year. A week is absolutely nothing. Most of the guys you are tempted to drop Broxton for have a ~ 0/15 slump coming in the next couple of weeks.
  10. Trevor Story anyone? Another polarizing player who already had plenty of doubters. Very slow start, lots of Ks, and bumped down a spot in the lineup. Obviously we can just list off people who have started terribly, but guys like Story/Villar who don't have that track record might make their owners more prone to panic.
  11. He might be helpful, but I am a little more bearish on his upside than some. I am basically viewing him as a riskier/lite version of Benintendi. They probably have similar power/speed profiles, hit for AVG, and both hit in good spots in strong offenses. I say "probably" because we really don't know yet what age and structural upper body damage has done to Brantley's ability to hit home runs and steal bases. Factoring in a little regression, he's probably closer to a ~10 HR guy than a 20 HR guy (especially since his only season with 20 HR came with 611 ABs, which I am not banking on ever happening). A 75th percentile projection might be something like a .290 12/15 with decent counting statistics PACE. Then you lower that expected value with the risk of injury. Meh. He's a fine OF4. I'm not too excited.
  12. This is easily the worst start I have ever had in fantasy baseball. I am carrying 13 hitters and only 3 are in the Top 150. One of those hitters, Segura, just got hurt. Altuve is having the worst start of any first rounder (Ranked 684); Story and Stanton are well north of 400. All of this made worse by the fact that I exclusively drafted hitters for the first 10 rounds. Logged into my computer today hoping a new week (in H2H) meant a fresh start for my bats. Nope, 1/19 with 1 run, 0 HR/Steals/RBI. Killing it.
  13. I've bought Miggy for a good price in two of my leagues. Old + Slow start apparently makes some owners worry.
  14. It's a little excessive going after my real world intelligence. The reasoning you cite is fallacious, but it is not reasoning I have endorsed. I made a joke. You might not think that joke is funny and you might not have even believed I was making an attempt at humor, but that is the case. In hindsight, I didn't appreciate how touchy people might be after losing a stud to injury. My bad. Anyway, I just think it is somewhat funny that this is the first time I invested in a catcher and so far am getting burned, albeit because of a fluke. I know I am not alone in how I draft catchers; for a lot of fantasy owners, Gary Sanchez is the first big time investment they have made in the position for a good 5+ years. I am making light of that and the unluckiness of the situation. Of course no reasonable person believes the injury to Sanchez is an indictment of the entire position as a whole. That is the fallacy of composition. But what does surprise me is that people are so cynical of their fellow man and so eager to confront that they won't even feign to give me the benefit of the doubt. That's hardly surprising coming from a poster with a demonstrably poor grasp of the English language and a tendency to misread, but I would urge you once again to avoid escalating things in this manner. Thanks.
  15. The first time I've ever drafted a catcher within the first 15 rounds...I've learned my lesson.