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Rainyy last won the day on November 1 2014

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  1. 10-team leagues is all about upside since the waiver wire pool has so many solid options. Pollock has more upside than anyone you will find on the wire all year. I don't play in auction leagues, but I'd have to imagine he's the kind of player you'd spent almost all of your budget on. This is especially the case if this is H2H and not Roto...
  2. The funny thing is this was happening - just 4 years ago. The dominant narrative then was how it was now a pitching/defense game with the offensive game so dormant and shifts killing batting average everywhere. Naturally people opined for the excitement of the steroid era - i.e. home runs - and now they have got just that. That said, I do understand some of the article's complaints. Ideally, I'd prefer more balance; it is fair to recognize we are in an extreme. But I'd much rather watch baseball in 2017 than in 2013-14 where teams couldn't score and reaching 30 HR was a big deal.
  3. Good post and I also think Marte has a strong chance of returning Top 50 value when he returns, but just to nitpick a little (sorry), I'd say Marte has a legitimate weakness in counting statistics, at least relative to most other guys drafted in the first 4-5 rounds. He was basically on a 84 run-55 RBI pace last year, which is pretty horrific, and that was with the Pirates finishing 13th in runs (729). This year, the Pirates are an even worse offensive team. They are on pace for 678.5 runs, good for 26th in the league. Granted, Marte's return itself should boost this pace, all else equal, and maybe Polanco starts playing better, but it's not looking good. Given these numbers, I am more inclined to call Marte a three or even two category performer, although he is unquestionably elite in two categories (AVG and SBs), which gives him a nice floor. I still view Marte as a 10-15 HR hitter; that's a unique amount of pop for a guy with his speed profile, but in this age of juiced balls and inflated home runs, his relative power is mediocre at best. In 2013 that power profile boosted a player; in 2017 it's a weakness. Regardless, love Marte's floor and fully support stashing. I just view him as a Top 30-50 player, as opposed to Top 30.
  4. Not surprising. Pollock is the kind of person who gets full medical clearance from a doctor, and then, upon leaving his office, gets knocked over by a gust of wind and shatters his pelvis. (There's a 50% chance that exact injury happens in the next 3 years.) As frustrating as this is, as owners we're really not in a position to complain since we all assumed this risk at his ADP. The upside of Pollock is late first round, especially with the Dbacks current roster. Once we hear back on the severity of this setback, just make sure to double whatever the expected recovery time is for a normal person. Pollock is particularly fragile and the Dbacks are going to be super conservative.
  5. He's definitely worth the add because his power will play in Coors, but unless he goes on an insane binge, I am not expecting better than a 50-50 split. The Rockies have been winning with Wolters, he is better defensively, and he gets on base (.400 OBP). Murphy's upside is Top 3 if he outright wins the job, however. The sad thing is Murphy splitting time in Coors still probably makes him a Top 12 catcher.
  6. As I mentioned, not necessarily. Insofar as there is a reasonable probability (from the perspective of someone drafting) Story could bat .300 40+ HR pace into June (like Reynolds), and Cargo played as poorly as he can, then sure. If you want to roast me for the phrase "absolute best case scenario" go for it. But that seems kind of pointless when I have since clarified my viewpoints with multiple paragraphs. Hopefully you get my general point right now, which I think is entirely reasonable. 1. As I have made abundantly clear, I never intended nor intend to convey the idea that it is impossible for Story to bat in the top four. In fact, I have explicitly said the contrary and have spent multiple paragraphs clarifying my stance. When some folks show more concern for a singular phrase than multiple paragraphs clarifying and expounding on that idea, I think people can't be said to want a sincere exchange of ideas - they are merely trying to provoke some "gotcha" moment. 2. Without injuries, I'd say Reynolds had a 5% chance of batting cleanup. Cargo had a very long leash as we saw, and even in the event Reynolds substantially outperformed Cargo (which he did), he also had to out-compete Desmond and Story. If you drafted early before more was known about Dahl's injury, he may have even been a dark horse candidate (although very unlikely given all the other guys have more power). I really can't stress how much Reynolds exceeded expectations and how much Cargo sucked. These are extreme circumstances. 3. That's fair and a more detailed debate over calculating ADP is probably too far off-topic. I want to stress that nowhere have I actually commented on the relative strength of the Rockies lineup. Batting 7th Coors is still better than batting in the heart of the order in a number of teams. Even if Story doesn't beat out Cargo/Desmond/Reynolds, he gets to bat those guys in - should be plenty of RBI opportunities. Having catcher platoon and pitcher behind him is less than ideal, but not the end of the world. Murphy should be solid. That said, I do think, in the aggregate, there is a noticeable difference between batting 2nd or 4th in Coors and batting 7th in counting statistics. Putting aside discussions over ADP - over which I am exhausted - my stance is the one knock on Story is all the competition for premium lineup spot. I am not really concerned about the rest of his numbers correcting. If anything, I think that's fairly optimistic - I am a huge fan of this man's talent. Agreed. This is my last post regarding this subject - I promise.
  7. I think his numbers will improve, but he's not my biggest worry when it comes to where Story bats. Cargo has been abysmal so far; so much so that he's destroyed the ridiculous leash he had (again, it took him 1.5 months at the mendoza line with no power to lose his cleanup spot, supporting my argument). If you want to say you predicted this bad of a start then all I can say is "congratulations." Most people probably didn't expect it. Even if Story jumps Cargo, that still means he has to outperform one of Desmond/Reynolds for that 5th spot. That $70M contract to Desmond probably gives him a slight additional edge, regardless of their production. Like I said, a sustained slump by Reynolds - certainly possible - is probably the best avenue to Story batting 5th. But Reynolds has played so well it would probably take him a month of suckage to get bumped down. Then there's Cargo. He has two factors that go to his advantage: seniority on the team/veteran status and being a lefty. There are so many righties in the lineup, I am sure the Rockies would love to be able to breakup them with Cargo in the middle of the order. That's partly why he stayed batting cleanup as long as he did. What I am saying is that if Story has similar production to Cargo ROS - even if he slightly outplays him - I say Cargo gets the better lineup spot. Personally I feel Story will outplay Cargo ROS and by a fairly substantial amount, but I am not completely discounting this potential obstacle.
  8. Yes, I would agree with you on the Reynolds proposition. In pre-season, I'd honestly have said Story had higher odds than Reynolds of batting fourth. You could take that as either me being wrong about both players or just being colossally wrong about Reynolds. Like I said, if you polled anyone, I think the probability of Reynolds hitting at a .300 40HR pace over the first 70 games of the season was extremely low. I frankly would never project Story as a .300+ hitter this season, even at Coors, and I'd say the odds of him having a .300 averaging in mid-June would be very low. Hindsight is obviously 20/20 here, but it took 1.5 months, absolute dominance from Reynolds, and absolute terribleness from Cargo to affect change. I maintain this confluence of variables is rare, and Story's ADP was probably a little high because it was a bit generous with assumptions about lineup position. If Reynolds outplayed Cargo, but by a smaller margin, Cargo would probably still be batting cleanup, especially since a lefty helps off-set all those righties. I honestly think the strongest argument for Story batting in the Top 4 was Blackmon's long injury history. Is it impossible that Story bats in the top 4 without injuries? Obviously not, and I hope I have clarified enough that people know that is not what I mean. Sorry for any confusion.
  9. Don't forget the lineup spot - that will be key going forward. Batting 6th was asinine. Fewer Run/RBI opportunities, less ABs, less protection. I also think it negatively affected his confidence. It will be interesting to see where Ramirez bats when Brantley comes back from the paternity list, but I doubt he goes back to 6th. I think he's earned 3rd or 5th, which I'll take. If he bats third the rest of the season right between Lindor and Encarnacion he has a legitimate chance to basically be Mookie Betts-lite. Should be able to maintain a .300 90-20-20-90 pace.
  10. Meh. If he's available when he's officially called up, I'll pick him up, but not losing sleep if he's picked up before then. Rodon has the pedigree and raw talent, but he just hasn't put it together yet. He's been more a thrower than a pitcher, and I have seen zero indication that won't be a WHIP-killing machine. His recent 7 ER rehab start isn't exactly encouraging either. There's upside, but I really doubt he's better than a highly volatile SP5. And while SP5 types are rosterable, I'd rather someone who is consistently mediocre than someone who has some gems mixed in with massive blow-ups. In other words, Rodon is a bit of a headache to own.
  11. He's 38 (turning 39 in October), an age in which most professional athletes are retired. Sharp decline can definitely happen.
  12. I am sorry you feel this way, but reviewing my posts there simply weren't any personal attacks. My general rule of thumb on forums is to mirror the tone of the person speaking to me. If someone is kind, thoughtful, and friendly, I am kind, thoughtful, and friendly. If someone is abrasive over something as trivial as fantasy baseball format, then my tone will sour. You have been curt, dismissive, and condescending in many of your posts. I was actually nice to have only mirrored one of those three, and at least gave you the respect of carefully reading your posts and thoughtfully engaging your points - a courtesy which certainly was not extended to me. It's your right to be that way and I am not complaining, but you of all people have some gall doing a victimization narrative. My advise to you: if you can't take it, don't dish it out. The matter-of-fact-I-am-superior-to-you tone backfires when someone comes along who does it better. Another piece of advice: don't adopt the tone in the first place. I would say "good luck in fantasy," but I am worried you'd treat the "luck" part as an insult. Cheers.
  13. This is only indirectly related to my post and the statement I was responding to so, unfortunately, it appears much of what I said did go over your head. My fault - always forget to lower my expectations on sports forums. And to answer your question, yes the championship is decided based on the results of a one week sample as I have freely acknowledged. However, the champion is not decided based on that one week alone. The champion must win a playoff berth (based on the results from a larger sample) and also win the preceding elimination matchups. This structure is often called "playoffs." It my be an alien concept on a sports forum (I've only ever seen it on competitive cooking shows), but I can explain the dynamics to you over PM, if you'd like. Anyway, just to reiterate, while I think H2H is more luck-based - and I am usually the one suffering because of bad luck - I still prefer it to Roto. I like that the season culminates in something and as a competitive person I get more joy beating someone in an individual matchup, even if it isn't always indicative of whose team is better overall.
  14. I think what is going on here is that we have an implicit semantical disagreement over whether "strength of roster" and "strategy" are the same thing. I believe they are different. Let me illustrate my conceptual difference crudely (note: ignore the actual parcentages): Roto: 20% Luck, 20% Strategy, 50% Strength of Roster H2H: 30% Luck, 30% Strategy, 40% Strength of Roster I acknowledge that in H2H there is more "luck" and overall strength of roster matters less, but at the same time this reflects a greater emphasis on strategy. 1. This is because Luck and Strategy go hand-in-hand - the smaller the sample size, the more pronounced an effect strategy decisions, such as punting categories, has on overall outcome: Let's illustrate by example. I have seen the following scenario frequently. Player A and B are in a finals match. Player A has the superior hitting and pitching team, but Player B owns the tie-breaker. Player B completely punts HR/Ks/Wins/Saves/RBI and loses by MASSIVE margins, but focuses on the remaining five categories. He picks a sufficient number of plus pitching matchups to get over the innings minimum and win ratios, and then benches his pitchers. He drops half of his team to go for guys with AVG, speed, and run production. Player B consequently wins the matchup. Here, strategy has obviously had a pronounced effect on the game. Yes, Player B might have had some luck (more than Roto probably) and he had the inferior team, but he nonetheless won because of his decision to exploit the matchup, and punt 5 categories and focus on the others. You can justifiably argue this is a cheap strategy or that it doesn't take skill or it's not fun or not fair- completely reasonable; but those are all separate issues from the issue at hand which is that strategy had a substantial effect on the outcome. 2. Relatedly, that each week in H2H is a discrete event offers more variance in strategy, as strategy depends on matchups, suggest more avenues for it being a more substantial variable than in Roto. In roto, you have roughly the same general strategy all season long - maximize your categories and be decent or better in all of them. Sure, you can alter the categories you are falling behind in as the season goes on, and you can engage in plenty of strategies like streaming pitchers, etc., but you can't really steal categories the way you can in H2H since you have to worry about concepts like margin for victory. 3. I imagine you are being tongue-in-cheek, but if not, you really need to educate yourself on what a "fact" is. Ok? Words are the basis of all complex human interaction and thought, and are functionally necessary to communicating over the internet. Calling an argument "just words" has to be one of the laziest, lamest, and most ineffective appeals out there. Your related appeal that because your argument has been expressed with fewer words it is superior (because supposedly self-evident truths can be expressed simply and "therefore" a simple explanation is self-evident), rests on numerous logical fallacies. I also find conclusory statements generally make poor arguments.