Rainyy

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Rainyy last won the day on November 1 2014

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  1. That's a pretty big "if," and it glosses over the big issue - the catcher price points themselves. I generally don't draft catchers and would rarely advocate holding two, but I simultaneously rostered both Contreras and Grandal on one team last year. The key here was that they were waiver wire fodder. I also don't think anyone is arguing that we should completely punt catcher. It appears Big Bat Theory is talking about investing heavily in catcher via the draft. He's not a very clear writer, but he gives the impression that on some teams he might own two top tier catchers. Maybe your argument is that paying around their ADP is not an overpay, but I am personally reluctant. Only top guy I like is Lucroy.
  2. I am 100% positive he understands multiple positions. I think you have been EXTRAORDINARILY generous in your interpretations of Big Bat Theory's posts, almost to the point of writing apologias. Your arguments and stances are completely cogent, but his weren't. I am also less inclined to give a poster the benefit of the doubt when he displays a poor and cocky attitude, makes sloppy, unclear arguments, and basically does the adult equivalent of sticking his fingers in his ears and going "lalalalalalalala." On top of all of this, he has had multiple opportunities to clarify his stance (in the event people were misreading him), but has not. Frankly, I think your interpretation of his posts are dead wrong. You make better points, but he doesn't deserve you as a surrogate. I would be happy to go post-by-post and explain why your interpretation is this way, but that is better reserved for private message. However, since you mentioned it, I don't think he was making an argument for multi-positions. He explicitly mentioned rostering 1+ catchers so that he could use one of them in a utility spot. You put a more compelling twist on that argument. Cheers.
  3. Evidently people who don't understand opportunity cost do.
  4. Actually, last year, the only catcher who averaged that weekly line was Buster Posey (and he just reached it). So I guess Posey was "backend" and everyone else was "really backend." I am also not sure what "point you are making." The guy obliterates your absurd catcher projections - seriously, a guy averaging your weekly projection of 9 runs/7 RBI/1.5 HR would finish with a stat line of ~225/38/175!!!! - and your response is to post some snarky red herring about him proving your point. Yeah...you really got him.... Oh and I love the "proof." The weekly stat line you cite as the reason you don't wait on catchers is almost the exact weekly stat line of last year's #2 catcher (and virtually tied with Lucroy for #1), Buster Posey. You can't make it up.
  5. It's hyperbole for sure. All I can think is that someone who punted catcher stole Big Bat Theory's girlfriend and he swore vengeance on his kind. He brought up Grandal so lets crudely take a look at his numbers: Grandal averaged the following statistics per game (126 games): .39 Runs; .57 RBI; 1.07 HR; .228 AVG Now let's assume in a given week Grandal plays 5 games; his weekly average might look a little something like this: 1.94 runs; 2.86 RBI; 1.07 HR; .228 AVG These are modest numbers and nowhere close to the ridiculous line he posted. Note also that my math is incredibly generous since it partly ignores the games catchers routinely miss. What is somewhat funny is that with a below replacement level catcher who is literally 50% as effective as Grandal in Run/RBI/HR, you're probably only going down about 1 run/1 RBI/.5 HR per week. Those mid-tier catchers are a glorified tie-breaker over the waiver wire. Assuming this has happened to you in larger sample size - say more than 10 times - this is very improbable. To have that consistently small of a margin of victory against a certain type of team simply shouldn't happen in the aggregate. Moreover, opportunity cost might have a modest effect on the equation. If someone is punting catcher that means he is using that roster space for something else. Can't he make the same "quantity" argument you're making - i.e. that an extra pitcher is single-handedly winning him categories? And one could even point to the opportunity cost of drafting a catcher, although that most likely is negligible unless we're talking about something within the first 12 rounds. This all said, I still wouldn't advise completely punting the position. But I don't think it is the death sentence he makes it out to be, and I personally wouldn't bother grabbing a catcher in the first 15 rounds of a draft.
  6. 1. Interesting you mention Grandal because his pricing was "bottom of the barrel" last year due to the early injury. And then a large percentage of owners who drafted Grandal probably went on to drop him at some point in the season. Wilson Contreras was another catcher in that tier who mostly went undrafted. I guess my point is that outside of the Posey, Lucroy, Schwarber (in certain formats), and Sanchez, I think its a bit of a crapshoot. Even Grandal/Contreras have injury and/or PT and/or batting order question marks. I think you you are greatly exaggerating the difference between these middle lower tiers and are also too confident in your ability to hit catcher picks. I simply prefer to wait until the last rounds or pick them up during the season. There just isn't a huge standard deviation among catchers once you exit that top tier. 2. I also think you're greatly exaggerating the effect of a catcher in H2H. Even someone like Grandal who I universally owned last year and was a solid guy, wasn't going to be this massive difference maker. If you averaged out his stats over the 126 games he played, he's probably adding like one run to your total, 1.5 RBI, and a HR or so, while minorly hurting your BA. The team with the better non-catcher hitters probably still wins 80-90% of the time. I am sure Grandal was the difference maker in some matchups, but let's not act like you had some supreme advantage while you "took candy from babies." Also, we should realize that part of Grandal's value was not having to pay a premium price. Would I give up a ~10th rounder for his production last year? Probably not. I have better things to do with that pick. Would rather start out with someone like D'Arnaud this year and/or stash Ramos, and then play catcher roulette until something sticks. My guess is most people will end up with a catcher who doesn't "hurt" them against 7+ other teams in the league. That said, I have been close to paying for Lucroy this year.
  7. That's crazy. At that price, you're implicitly saying Dahl has the upside of a baseball-playing piece of toast.
  8. Obviously the answer is "it all depends" - since value is relative to how your draft goes - but my general answer is "yes." I do not like punting in H2H simply because I doubt my own competence in predicting the future and executing a specialized strategy. Basically, I value flexibility. I don't want to be pigeon-holed into one style of play, not knowing who gets injured or how active my league's trade market is. I am also a believer in taking the most valuable player on the board, which generally translates to more balanced teams. That said, I do wait on pitching in H2H. But I don't consider that punting, as much as the unpredictability, variance, and uniqueness of standard deviation among pitching tiers. Although I will say in some H2H leagues, pitching is underrated as a result of everyone simultaneously adopting this mindset. That is when you adjust and zig to their zag.
  9. I'd say there is a 50% chance 1+ teams try it in a given league. Probably a little bit higher in money leagues. I'd say it is a generally successful strategy and annoying to face, but a few criticisms: 1. In a less semi-active less competitive league this strategy is probably superior since making the playoffs is assured. But in really competitive leagues, I see these teams fail all the time. They are almost guaranteed to lose 4 categories every week, and then closer turnover/blowups and injuries to SB guys can take care of the rest. Conversely, they rarely dip below .500 since they consistently locking up a few categories, but with a little bad or even neutral luck, they might not slip into the playoffs. 2. Multiple teams try this strategy and then they cannibalize the value. There's only so many SB guys in the league and there's only so many elite closers. When you have multiple teams competing for them, you're going to overpay or else abandon that strategy.
  10. Of the popular H2H strategies, this is probably the most effective counter, but I wouldn't assume victory in SV/ERA so easily. Facing a team of all or predominantly RPs, a savvy owner who has multiple aces will be able to pick and choose matchups. Kershaw, Scherzer, etc. very well might beat your RPs in ERA/WHIP, and he doesn't need many starts to ensure victory in Win/K. Alternatively, since the owner is free to pretty much ignore hitting for the first 5-6 rounds, he presumably can grab some elite closers AND elite SP. It might require some luck, but I think someone stacking HR/RBI could actually have superior Saves to a team going Run/SB/AVG/SV/ERA/WHIP. The reason for this is simply the pricing of players. Going AVG/SB/Runs is a very expensive strategy this year - all those guys are front-loaded into the first ~3 rounds of the draft since 2017 is the year of everyone wanting to own the "five category guy." If you don't invest 1st-3rd pick(s) into Villar and/or Turner, you might not even be that competitive of a SB team. Even the SB-specialists like Hamilton/Gordon will probably cost you a 6th round pick or higher and they might not help you in AVG as much as you'd want. As an aside, I can see people trying to stack AVG/SB/Runs simply losing to teams who are trying to have balanced hitting teams in those categories since all the five category guys are going high. AVG/SB/Run used to be a much more efficient strategy because just 3 years ago players like Jay Bruce and his .240 BA and 7 steals were creeping into the 3rd round of drafts. Power was at a premium and everyone was paying for it, to the detriment of AVG/Steals, which could be found later in the draft. That's kind of what HR/RBI is this year. There are so many of those guys to be had late in the draft. I think of it this way: a guy stacking HR/RBI and letting you win AVG/SB by default and giving you a solid chance at runs. So by the nature of ADP, you have just spent your top picks on hitting to help you with categories the other guy is handing you on a silver platter. Probably the best counter against a HR/RBI team is simply a team that leans pitching in the early rounds, and takes a balanced approach on offense. That team is going to win Run/AVG/SB just the same as a team specializing them, and likely has a better shot at taking the pitching categories. But what makes HR/RBI interesting, is that no one uses this strategy in H2H so its not a realistic counter.
  11. This. Desmond was ranked as a ~mid 4th rounder by sites like Yahoo pre-injury, and many saw this as a 1-2 round discount. Missing a month of the season in H2H is fairly negligible depending on the owner's confidence in his team. I have never seen Desmond escape the 5th round in my drafts, and I am targeting him there in H2H. Would rather own than Yelich. Probably Polanco too, assuming he comes back in the first two weeks of May.
  12. In 5x5 H2H, I came across a somewhat interesting strategy and I hope people could comment on its overall efficacy and possible counters. So someone in my league is punting AVG and SB and has loaded up on cheap power bats late in the draft. No one is going to beat him in HR/RBI and he probably has a ~50% chance of winning runs in a given week. Obviously this strategy isn't novel, but I think it might be more efficient than the more popular strategy of stacking Runs, AVG, and SB. Basically, HR/RBI is ridiculously cheap. There are so many bower bats to be had in the late rounds, so long as you are willing to sacrifice your average. Conversely, this year more than ever, premium prices are being paid for average and steals. So many of the hitters in the first three rounds have comparable HR/Runs/RBI to late rounders, but simply hit around .300 (Rizzo, Votto, Freeman, etc., etc.). Anyway, taking power late and punting SB and AVG, basically means this guy was free to anchor his rotation with Sale and Darvish, and to load up on tons of k/9+ pitchers, presumably to stop people from beating him due to streaming. His relievers are good, but not great. For teams like mine that load up on hitters early in a balanced fashion, this is kind of a nightmare. I've paid for hitting in the 1st-6th+ rounds, yet all I have to show for it is wins in 3 out of the 5 hitting categories, since there is virtually no chance I will beat him in HR/RBI. Meanwhile, he has pretty good odds of taking 3+ pitching categories due to focusing on pitchers in the early rounds. He has so many high K guys that if I play the streaming game, I will almost assuredly get swept in pitching. Basically, if I am up 3-2 in hitting, then I need to take 2+ in pitching. Even if I load up on relievers, which I didn't do, I have to steal one of ERA/WHIP to have a shot of tying. That's easier said than done when he has elite anchors in Sale/Darvish. Definitely a frustrating team comp to face for those of us loading up on hitters early. It is pretty clever too - makes typical H2H hitter stacking highly inefficient for opponents and exploits cheap power/RBI late in drafts. And stacking Runs/SB/AVG instead is probably more expensive, which means inferior pitching.
  13. I give up AJ Pollock and Jean Segura, get Corey Seager. Standard 5 x 5 H2H; 12-teamer. Team in signature. Having a hard time evaluating this one so please help me out! WHIR Pros: - I get best player in deal (although Pollock might have higher upside) - My team is heavy on SB and light on HR/RBI so this fills a need. - Mitigates risk/uncertainty: Pollock post-injury and Segura's move to Seattle. Cons: - Potentially losing ~60 SB (although less important in H2H and I have Villar) - Probably (?) an overpay given upside of Pollock/Segura - Already have two other SS on the roster (Story, Villar) so not dealing for a position of need - Sophomore slump/injury for Seager
  14. Oops wrong forum - please delete! sorry
  15. I give up AJ Pollock and Jean Segura, get Corey Seager. Standard 5 x 5 H2H; 12-teamer. Team in signature. Having a hard time evaluating this one so please help me out! WHIR Pros: - I get best player in deal (although Pollock might have higher upside) - My team is heavy on SB and light on HR/RBI so this fills a need. - Mitigates risk/uncertainty: Pollock post-injury and Segura's move to Seattle. Cons: - Potentially losing ~60 SB (although less important in H2H and I have Villar) - Probably (?) an overpay given upside of Pollock/Segura - Already have two other SS on the roster (Story, Villar) so not dealing for a position of need - Sophomore slump/injury for Seager