Established Members
  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

884 Excellent

About ipstaff

  • Rank

Previous Fields

  • Add to Mailing List?

Recent Profile Visitors

419 profile views
  1. That is one of your next posts ever.
  2. ...And that is why Maddon is managing the Cubs, and you (and I, and everyone else on this forum for that matter) are not. he's got more information, he's looking at more stats, he's aware of the mood of the clubhouse, he's managing egos... pick 'em, but at this point your assumption should be "he clearly knows something I don't" rather than "what he's doing makes no sense."
  3. Hang on. In "real" baseball, you want a guy who can give you magic over the most "real" innings. You are right that a shutdown closer eases the drain on the rest of the staff, but the name of the game in baseball is keeping runs off the board, overall. A guy who can do that for 200 IP is more valuable than one who does it for 70. That's just math. If you don't have enough guys who can keep runs off the board in innings 1-8, then your "shutdown" closer never has a chance to matter in the 9th.
  4. Agree, after Weiss' comment, Ottavino at least merits discussion in this thread, especially if Estevez is struggling and Ottavino is on a roll. as far as I can tell, the biggest value of this thread is in discussing guys who COULD be closers during this season, due to a combo of their strength plus perceived opportunity - weakness at the top of the pen or trade likelihood. So while the "this ain't the middle reliever thread" comment always make for a punchy-sounding retort, it's not really the right application here.
  5. Er, make that, three home runs.
  6. Raise your hand if you thought Reyes would have 2 HR before picking up his first stolen base. (waiting) Ok, nobody? Good. Me neither.
  7. ...aaaaand, Bryce finishes June with a .801 OPS. Has 4 HR in his last 9 games. Mevins shown not to be spot-on. Baseball showing, yet again, the folly of putting too much emphasis in any one given moment. Pancakes for breakfast!
  8. Whether anybody *cares* or not is something people may disagree with you about,. But let's refer back to the mod comment that this thread needs to be about what his fantasy contributions may be and not about the social issues Reyes' employment invokes now.
  9. I didn't intend to suggest they would trade Baez for a rental - just that if they traded other periphery for a rental, it might impact Baez. Though as I said - and you echoed - if they go for a rental this season it is probably not on offense; maybe they go that route in the rotation or (most likely of the bunch) bullpen. But it is still a possibility, especially if the races start to tighten up and the temptation to break it NOW overtakes.
  10. Yep, not knocking him. I like Bryce, as a player. I wish he was a little bit less douchey as a human - at least that's the impression I get from his interviews - but I love watching the kid play and love the hustle. I was just saying that I don't think he's ever likely to be accused of lack thereof.
  11. Hey man, you can believe whatever you want to believe, but a .008 "discount" off of his career BA and .010 increase over what ZiPS is calling for... that's not what I would call "conservative" by any stretch. That looks to me like you're assuming he'll hit pretty close to his career norms, which is almost by definition *not* conservative. There's simply a much wider year-to-year variance in typical hitters' BA than you are suggesting, and a hitter's "norm" is much less predictable with so few total seasons under his belt - especially for guys who are relatively free-swinging like Puig is. Just for fun, I checked in on baseball reference to see who it had listed as the most similar players to Puig at his age, according to Bill James' "similarity scores" (http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/similarity.shtml). The two most similar guys they had listed were pretty interesting - one name didn't surprise me at all - the #2 guy, fellow Dodger Raul Mondesi, with a similarity score of 971. The other was more of a surprise - former Cub Leon Durham, with a 980 score. (Leon stole a lot more bases early in his career than you might think - including 25 SB, and 11 CS, in only 87 games in 1981 (which was admittedly a much more SB friendly era). I don't bring these guys up to argue whether Puig is actually similar to those guys or not... it's just a Bill James formula. I bring it up only to note a typical BA variance in most players, and I'm using this score to pick a few players for examples, because this seems better than just picking guys out of a hat. So while Mondesi was a career .288 hitter with the Dodgers (so, just looking at his early career), his low season with them was only a .253 BA. Heck, based on his first four full seasons' BA (.300 on the nose), his .279 in season 5 and then his .253 in season 6 are nowhere near that norm, and they weren't injury related or the result of age - he was only 27 in season 5. For Durham, a career .277 hitter with a pretty short career overall (done by age 31), his average swung wildly year to year: .271, .290, .312, .258. ,279, .282, .262, .273, before his sudden tail off of .218 in 1988 (and then only a .056 in 22 PA in 1989 and that was the end of his career). Similar wide variances in year to year BA exist in the next several closest similarity score guys: Carlos Gonzalez (BAs from .271 to .336, counting full seasons only, for the career .292 guy), Dusty Baker (.242 to .320 in his prime, a .278 career - including a .321, .288, .256, .261, .242 first full five seasons), even Hall of Famer "Sweet Swingin'" Billy Williams with a.296 BA over 16 Cub seasons swung as low as .276 and as high as .333. And that's Williams, who generally had much better control of the strike zone (vastly superior BB/K ratio over his career). Even with the best of major leaguers, you can see a 20 to 30 point swing in BA from "career norms" in any given year, and especially with a guy as young as Puig, where the "career" around which the norm is based is in fact so short. Look at Dusty's first five seasons as a great example - after his first two seasons, a .290s-ish BA would have looked like an expectable result, and he didn't come within 30 points of that until 4 seasons after, when he hit .291... and then promptly put up a .262 the following year. So, to call something so incredibly close to Puig's young-career norm a "conservative" estimate, when he has already shown a variance of 23 points and then 41 points more, year over year... well, again, you can call it whatever you'd like, but it sure doesn't seem "conservative" to me.
  12. The inevitable Harper injury is never a result of NOT hustling. Kid is still young enough and "ALL ON FIRE ALL THE TIME" enough that it's usually the over-hustling that gets to him (cue the "Harper running headfirst into a wall" gifs).
  13. Agreed. I think there's some more aggressive views on either side of the Puig argument and my strongest belief is that the most likely outcome is solidly in the middle. Tons of potential talent, definitely a real problem with judgment that has gotten in the way (hell, even seeing it with his pretty awful CS rate, for a guy as fast as he is). Too early to close the book on him, and it's just as irresponsible to fully discount his pre-2015 numbers as being "too long ago" as it is to fully discount his 2015 as being purely injury-caused.
  14. I'm not quite as flag-plantingly pro-Harper as some of the others around. I do believe he's a generational talent, for sure. And I do believe he's unlikely to finish 2016 without a few more .800+ or even .900+ (health allowing) ones; I doubt that April 2016 was going to be his only good month of 2016. But there seem to be some better contenders for this spot than me, from looking at the prior pages of the thread. I just think it would be great for some of us to start putting our money where our mouth is on some of these bold flag-planting statements.
  15. This whole thread is screaming for an avatar bet. Mevins or one of the other doom predictors needs to set an end of 2016 prediction line and then we need on of the pro-Harperists to bet in on it.... if Mevins loses, he wears a Harper gif of the winner's choosing for the whole 2017 season, and if the Harper advocate loses, his avatar is a big "Mevins is my fantasy forecaster" sign. Or something like that. Or he has to go back and re-read every single Mevins Harper and Jay Bruce post from the last 3 seasons. (The avatar would be the far less painful outcome.) injury time lost if getting him to under 140 games played should pro-rate the line (rather than cancelling the bet). come on! Somebody oughta take this action.