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About rocklandrew

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  1. My board has changed over the past month so here is the updated version. I have a couple receivers and a qb near the top - I see those 3 as top shelf investments that warrant deviation from the overall strategy. 1. Alvin Kamara rb 2. Saquon Barkley rb 3. JuJu SmithSchuster wr 4. Michael Thomas wr 5. Travis Kelce te 6. Nick Chubb rb 7. Patrick Mahomes qb weekly difference maker can cover up other roster deficiencies and lead teams to fantasy playoffs. 8. Damien Williams rb 9. David Montgomery rb Tarik Cohen surprised as a 7th round rookie, not hard to imagine what this guy will do. 10 George Kittle te 11 Leonard Fournette rb this ranking scares me but I can't ignore his probable usage. 12 Tevin Coleman rb he was brought in to succeed in the Shanny system. I think he will. 13 James White rb I can't ignore how crucial this guy is to Tom Brady's success. 14 Deshaun Watson qb 15 Peyton Barber rb lack of receiving chops last year may be attributed to Koetter's system. TB lost a lot of targets, including short game wr Humphries. Arians will involve his rb's heavily in the passing game, and Barber will be getting first crack at the gig. Last year he was working to get on the field, this year he's expanding his game to fit into probably the best situation in the NFL scheme wise and schedule wise. RoJo is a threat but is still only 21 years old. Draft Barber where warranted; I'm expecting 15 pts per game. zero RB strategy players may want to consider drafting and starting both. 16 Justin Jackson rb I don't see this ending well for Melvin Gordon. 17 Rashad Penny rb committe back with upside. 18 Kenyon Drake rb Ballage usage takes the luster off him. 19 Miles Sanders rb as was posted in his thread: should work his way into rb2 status 20 Alexander Mattison rb Kubiak was brought in to Min. to install his running game. big upside with Cook's injury history. 21 James Washington wr. 22 Hunter Henry te 23 Jared Cook te 24 Carson Wentz qb no reason he shouldn't return to mvp '17 numbers. 25 Delanie Walker te old man will produce as long as he holds up 26 Anthony Miller wr talent meets opportunity. looking steady if unspectacular. 27 Kenny Stills wr Albert Wilson injury means Stills is in the slot. Fitz throws to the slot a ton. system being installed is Patriot style. all good things. 28 Curtis Samuel wr camp reports are favorable. should do well in Norv Turner's wr-friendly offense if he gets the playing time. 29. Vance MacDonald te has Ben ever thrown a ton to a te? opportunity is great, hard for me to see huge upside though. 30 Geronimo Allison wr if Rodgers is uncomfortable in the new system he may check down a lot. 31 Dede Westbrook wr looks like Jags #1 receiver: Foles loves throwing to the slot. groin injury is worth monitoring 32 C.J. Anderson rb Lions brought in boring Darell Bevell to run the O. I would have liked to transfer Riddicks catches to Kerryon but that role probably no longer exists. CJ could be the lead of a 3 headed monster in Detroit and could warrant a late draft pick as a low upside option. 33 Mitch Trubisky qb 34 Jameis Winston qb 35 Kyler Murray qb 36 Josh Allen qb most volatile investment in fantasy with Smoky and Foster as deep threats: maybe draft as qb2 and slot into lineup midweek just to send tremors through your opponent. 37 Marcus Mariotta qb Humphries will be good check down wr. Walker's return will help. 38 Lamar Jackson qb 39 Josh Gordon wr I make it a point to have him on the roster if he's playing 40 Rex Burkhead rb I won't draft him if White is already on the roster. 41 Carlos Hyde rb 42 Geoff Swaim te I like him as the breakout te this year, but he's not practicing with a foot injury right now. If he's good to go he will be on my roster. 43 Dallas Goedert te tight end handcuff? 44 Darren Waller te Antonio Browns shenanigans may vault Waller into usefulness. 45 Mike Gesicki te dart throw thoughts . .. .. . . the chance of failure of the new system in Cincinnati has me avoiding the higher priced commodities like Mixon and Boyd. If Taylor is installing the Rams offense which runs almost exclusively out of a 3 wr set, then one of the unheralded players like Josh Malone or Cody Core could become a useful wr with Green's injury. other teams with new offensive coordinators: MIA - looks like lots of short passes to me. NYJ - slowest pace of play in the league? no thanks. JAX - DeFillipo brings west coast timing offense to a team that's going to run a ton. BAL - Greg Roman replaces Morningwheg. Ingram could have a good year in his one cut and go system, but I left him off the board because Jackson may get half the rushing td's and there may not be any check-down upside. DEN - Shanny system via Scangarello means upside for the running game. Unfortunately 3 headed monster. Royce Freeman looks like he could have value but Riddick probably takes a lot of the 3rd down upside out of the equation. MIN Gary Kubiak system means the running game will flourish GB - I'm scared to invest heavily in this team if there could be growing pains as petulant Rodgers works into a new system DET Darell Bevell brings the unexcitement of the old Seattle teams. ATL Dirk Koetter is back. Matt Ryan will probably do well, Ridley too for his draft spot. I don't have a ton of hope for Hooper to duplicate what he did last season. Draft pick Qadree Ollison may take on a large role if Freeman can't stay healthy. TB Arians is going to make this offense purr. ARI maybe the Cardinals are ahead of the curve with the Kingsbury signing. It's kind of hard to imagine, though. I like David Johnson but downgrade him because Murray may get a large share of the rushing tds. guys I have bad feelings about injury wise: McCaffrey, Ertz, Zeke Elliot, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Gurley (obvious one), and Andrew Luck (makes me downgrade their entire offense)
  2. I'm about halfway thru reading SC Gwynne's book about the "Air Raid" offense, and though it isn't nearly the book his Empire of the Summer Moon is, it has impressed upon me how much of the modern NFL's passing game is based on intelligence, trust, and the familiarity a qb and a wr have with each other. Kliff Kingsbury get's namedropped early in chapter 1 as the original Texas tech air raid qb. Still have no confidence in the Cards, Kliff, and Kyler, though. Here's a list of Wr's from mostly exciting offenses that I'm targeting late who I'm convinced will outproduce their humble draft positions and have the upside to hit 200 ppr points for the season . . . . Albert Wilson - 4 td's in less than 7 games last year. should be Mia's #1 in my opinion Anthony Miller - wrote a letter to all GM's predraft last year arguing why he was the best wr in the class. incredible work ethic. James Washington - biggest opportunity of any on this list. plenty of time working with Ben. not a believer in Moncrief since his days with Luck. Dede Westbrook - Foles loves targeting the slot (6th most in league I read). flipside is that Marrone's offense scares me in a bad way. Curtis Samuel - looking like the value play for Carolina. turned heads in camp this spring. Geronimo Allison - Randall Cobb came out of nowhere playing the slot in this offense. I'm not a big believer in Adams after drafting him late in '15 then watching him do nothing after Jordy went down a few days later. MVS's speed should open up the middle some, too. could be MVS here but I'm thinking Allison Demarcus Robinson - 3 tds in 3 weeks as a starter to end last year. looks like a wr1 to start the season right now to me. RB's and TE's of this caliber will be long gone while I'm picking these guys after 100. that's what drives this whole strategy. by loading up on extra RB's and TE's early I don't have to hit on most of my picks to compete, and simultaneously I'm hoarding limited resources from the rest of the league. this strategy is only effective in larger leagues where you don't need absolute studs at every position. I'm building my team thinking: how am I not going to waste picks 7-11. It's opposite to conventional, "get my stud starters first and see what's left over later", thinking, but in this game of attrition, I find it's the safest, most effective way to build teams that consistently compete. Thanks to those who've taken the time to read and contribute to this thread. -Andrew
  3. I started this thread, so I may as well show the process of this strategy. If I fall on my face I can only hope that it offers up a quarter of the entertainment value that AxeElf's spectacular display of inaccurate prognosticating did a couple years ago. That's not a sideways swipe at the man, either. We're mostly here to be entertained, and he's gotta be one of the most memorable posters this forum ever had. And getting a leg up in this game is getting more difficult every season: I put my big board together this last week, objectively looking at it from the angles of coaching, talent, and opportunity without micromanaging it from a fantasy perspective. That's what I do when the season starts. Chris Godwin looked like a classic ideal round 7 pick until I crossreferenced with his adp . .. 41?!!! That's late third round! Regardless, here's my board of guys I'm considering rostering, along with some comments and fantasypros' PPR adp . . .. . . 1. Kamara - nothing I don't like here, great backup qb situation to boot. 2. Barkley - the less faith I have in Eli and pick6 the larger the target I see on this guys back. if he makes it through the season he should be #1 3. McCaffrey - 205 lbs is a little light for the workload he gets 4. Elliot - can't help worrying a little about a suspension at some point. 5. JuJu - exception to every rule. historic season incoming. Remember when Antonio Brown wasn't even the first receiver the Steelers drafted in '10? AB is like the Brady of WR's. Where would Brady be without Belichick. Where will AB be without Ben? That's my logic. I'm picking first in my league so I can keep disciplined to my strategy. 6. Mixon - 6'1" worries me a little. Taller guys seem more prone to leg injuries. Should get all the work he can handle though, in my opinion. 7. Gordon - 6'1" and the Chargers are looking to play 20 weeks so I think they'll dial him back a little. 8. Williams - immense upside. performed as well as Hunt. But looking at Hyde's 2017 receiving stats worries me about a timeshare. Still. adp of 31 looks like value. 9. Drake - Talented runner, receiver, blazing speed, great attitude, low mileage. And he's all they've got besides 6'3" 245 Ballage and a couple of 7th rounders. adp of 54 screaming value to me. I like him in the third rd. 10. Connor - another 6'1" runner and the Steelers want to keep him healthy 11. Kelce - beast. early career microfracture surgery still scares me a bit. adp 11 12. Fournette - injuries to 4/5th his line, lackadaisical rehab, offseason parking tickets. minor shackles for him to overcome in Marrones offense, and only Alfred Blue behind him. adp 28 13. Kittle - not convinced last year wasn't a career year but TE is as thin as always. adp 19 14. D.Henry - can't ignore what he did late. adp 44 15. Watson - if I want my favorite fantasy qb, it's got to be here . . . adp 47 means 4th rd. 16 J.Cook - J.Graham upside. after Thomas and Kamara there's nothing proven. adp 81 looks like solid rd 5-6 pick 17. C.Davis - should get all the work he can handle this year and has one of the better backup qbs in the league. adp of 66 means I'll probably be selecting another position but upside is tough to ignore for the former #5 overall pick. 18. H.Henry - if he looks to be 100% then his adp 63 looks about right. 19. O.Howard - Jameis loves his te's, Arians hates his te's. oh the conundrum. adp 55 20. Engram - looks like last year's Kittle situation. WR cupboard is bare. adp 68 21. Penny - should get enough volume as 1b and the receiving back and if Carson gets hurt like always then watch out 93 adp 22. L. Miller - unsexiest pick every draft. don't see much behind him though. adp 71 23. Coleman - looks like a nice starter in rd 6 adp 83 24. Ingram - move over Gus Edwards adp 61 25. Mayfield - adp 67 26. R. Wilson - adp 74 27. Montgomery - reminds me of Forte adp 73 28. Pettis - SF drafted 2 WR's early but they won't be ready til next year i think adp77 29. Ebron - Lions din't know whatcha got 'til it's gone. (scratchy Cinderella Long Cold Winter voice) adp 76 30. Sanders - drafted a round before Monty, same pick as Shady was taken back in the day(53rd overall). Jordan Howard is one dimensional. adp 120 looks like a nice 8th round pick with lots of upside 31. Newton - if the shoulder is good he'll rock the Norv Turner offense adp 84 32. R.Jones - Arians can rehab this guy just like Winston. Jones can catch the ball, not sure Peyton Barber can adp 111 33. J. Washington - opportunity x 10 adp 133 34. Burkhead - flex gold. adp 194 35. Mattison - 3rd rd pick. adp in the 240's. only a Dalvin Cook injury away from a feature role. 36. Wentz - return to 2017 form possible if not probable 37. Trubisky - believe in Nagy if not Troobs. 38. Winston - Arians is the man. adp 92 seems high though. 39. Hyde - good chance he carries value at some point this season. adp 143 40. Demarcus Robinson adp near 300. proven that all he needs is opportunity. 41. Gusicki - Rosen needs someone to throw to. I'll be following his preseason. 42. Hogan - been burned here before. yet, Brady can't throw deep. Norv and Cam want to. they brought him in for a reason. same reason they brought in Torrey Smith. going to have to get a look at how they rotate in preseason. here's some guys I considered but left out: Leveon Bell - Gase prefers workaholics and accountability to talent. Idealogical clash looks inevitable. D. Johnson - Cardinals moves look like utter desperation. No trust in Kingsbury. Z. Ertz - I always draft this guy. Probably not this year. Maybe cause of Goedert, or maybe thinking his run of health can't last. this is my starting point. I'll be moving the RBs and TE's around some over the summer deciding what rounds I can draft these guys and hopefully identifying a couple more late WR options.
  4. This forum has helped me win 3 championships in 6 years and I want to give a little back. I play in a 14 team league that starts a qb,2rb,3wr,1te,1flx, k,d/s. The following strategy I find is not applicable to smaller leagues because the pool of players available is large enough to make every position equal, and complementary players tend to hurt you instead of helping. The idea here is to look at your fantasy team like an objective, unemotional capitalist would, where supply and demand dictate market decisions. I believe that WR is the worst investment of the four position groups for the following reasons . . . There are 3 ways a WR can be devalued: 1. opposing DC's can put a bracket on him. 2. the starting QB can be injured. 3. the player can be injured. And, importantly, in today's spread nfl, almost every team has 3 starting WR's. It's painful to watch an early pick getting outplayed by another WR on his own team! Probably 75 receivers will be rostered yearly in a league of 14 fantasy teams. Also, as the weather deteriorates near playoff time , WR's lose effectiveness due to wind and snow. It's not news that WR's are by far the easiest position to waiver in the first few weeks of the season. But if your roster is bloated with early round receivers, you're unlikely to want to cut bait on what looks like a lateral move. That's what I call draft baggage. And even later in the season, what with all the tools out there, it's easier than ever to find teams that defensively suck at containing slot receivers. There're always a couple guys you can roster on Sunday morning who can get you eight to ten points with the hope of a TD. Every year I look at the TE landscape and I see only 5 - 10 guys that are difference makers. And they get injured at a high rate. I like to have 2 of them on my roster with an upside flier as well. Cornering 20 percent of the market is huge! And TE's tend to avoid pitfalls 1 and 2 that I highlited about the WR's: how often are they doubled by a safety and linebacker? Who's a backup qb's best friend? Having a stud in the TE spot is a nice weekly advantage, and if you have to put another in the flex spot, nothing wrong with that. And good luck trying to find a good one after week 5 on the waiver wire. Even when opportunity knocks when a starter gets hurt, rarely do I have confidence in the new guy. This position takes reps like no other, which is the reason I never draft rookies. Sorry Lions fans. RB's get injured. The last thing you want is a couple of 8 point black holes in your RB1 and 2 spots by midseason, hoping the rest of your roster can compensate. In a competitive league, the cupboard will be bare early on with a high waiver the most likely chance to get a replacement. Come draft time, there're only about 15 studs I want on my roster that look like difference makers and are big enough to be on the field for 3 down's. I draft 2-3 of those guys early and am not afraid to pull thetrigger early on another couple upside guys as well. Specialists like James White are nice but I consider him a WR who can get gameflowed out at any time. I'll takeBurkhead at a cheaper rate any day and slot him in as my rb5. QB's. Get a guy who can move and has weapons; Mayfield or Trubisky come to mind. There may be 15-20 viable fantasy starters in the pool, of which #'s 15-20 are getting drafted after pick 100. And there's usually a plug and play QB on the scrap heap who can help your team compete if your starter totally craps the bed. Finally, here's the under the radar strategy i use for finding breakout guys: look at the big name offensive linemen on the move in free agency, and secondly look at OC philosophy changes. The best example I have of this is when Jeff Fisher left the Rams and McVay brought in a stud LT and G. Guys in my league scoffed at me on draft day for picking Gurley at 5 after he was terrible the previous year, even though he'd shown major flashes as a rookie. I had him at the top of my board that year. To summarize: If you play in a 14 team or more league, spend your draft capital on RB's and TE's. Don't be afraid to pick these guys a round earlier or more than their adp. As we all know, adp is a cruel joke once the games start. If you find you have a surplus later on, and your league has a pulse, then trading for a quality WR is no sweat. Get a QB in the mid rounds who's got solid weapons and upside. Pick up another later if you have the space. And leave your roster flexibility to where it's easiest to be most flexibe. I'll be drafting my first WR after pick 80, looking for guys like Washington from Pitt or Miller from Chi, rostering only three on week one, starting them all, and waivering as I go.
  5. Red Sox radio announcers Sunday were commenting on how aggressive Beckham was - swinging at stuff 2-3 inches off the plate. doesn't seem sustainable.
  6. Bears have faced the Packers and Seahawks. Allen Robinson ran alot of his routes from the slot, where Adam Thielen diced the Packers, and Emmanuel Sanders carved up the Seahawks. Cardinals play much better CB and slot CB according to Silva. I expect plenty of play action and quick looks for Burton tomorrow. Trubisky throws best in the middle of the field. As was stated above, Cards are week at guarding TE's. 5/80/1
  7. Good point about Wilson, I did forget about him. He's another small receiver though. 5,9 186. Considering what they've got at TE, I'm wondering what their red zone offense is going to look like if he's not in there. I think that % is fair and makes him worth the gamble.
  8. This guys value has hit rock bottom. I picked him off the scrapheap in a 14 team 3wr and a flex ppr. Just read a rotoworld blurb saying he's not even an upside stash at this point. Here's what I think are the positives: he's on a team that said they were going to run more plays than the Pats. he's in competition for targets with deep threat Kenny Stills and slot man Danny "Glass" Amendola. And I don't believe Amendola is taking over Landry's former role. Other reciever is Jakeem Grant 170 pounds. I consider last season a wash due to Cutler, and they will most likely be throwing more as this season progresses. They'll probaby even want him out there more on the running plays. He's two inches taller and 15# heavier than next closest wr Stills. I'm not enamored with the talent, but I'm sensing opportunity.
  9. thanks for bringing the science Chris O'Leary! James Paxton has been discussed a ton on these boards. I know from reading your work that SP increased velocity is a red flag for you, but then from what I've read above about the decreased arm slot maybe being a positive for timing, wondering what your take is on Paxtons health outlook with his new form? 2016 2015
  10. projected lineup and rotation (rotochamp) 1. Blackmon 1. Gray 2. LeMahieu 2. Bettis 3. Arenado 3. Chatwood 4. Gonzalez 4. Anderson 5. Desmond 5. Hoffman 6. Story 7. Dahl 8. Wolters Desmond is the only addition to this group, on a team that hasn't had a winning record in 7 years. Is there any hope that this could be their year? I say yes. The bats are formidable. And Gray and Bettis may be the best 1-2 the Rox have had. Last season the bullpen set high standards for futility, blowing 28 saves with a league worst 5.13 era. But the FiP, and xFiP brought them up to 22nd and 23rd league wise. Here's something I found on the webs (props to chickenfoof) . .. Estevez had 7 BS he was not ready to be put in that situation but injuries force it. Ottovino had 5 BS coming back from TJ McGee had 4 BS injuries caused a loss in velocity Lyles had 3 BS Yeah whatever Logan had 3 BS couldn’t get the RH batters out and left the game with runners on base often with Mike Dunn coming over from the Marlins, Estevez maturing, Ottovino and McGee healthy, I'm seeing improvement. More of it may come from an unlikely source - new manager Bud Black. Always a pitcher never a hurler in his playing days, Black was instrumental as pitching coach for the 2002 Angels in guiding the rotation of Appier, Ortiz, Lackey, and Washburn thru to the title. They say he's a players manager, a communicator. Here's a shot of him from back in the day. and here's a quote i dug up, attributed to an old chum . .. "“Buddy is just one of those big-hearted people. The stoners, the jocks, the nerds, the kids taking special education, they all loved Buddy Black.” sound familiar? . . .. . . .. .. . .. Well, he's very popular, Ed. The sportos, the motorheads, geeks, sluts, bloods, wasteoids, dweebies, dickheads — They all adore him. They think he's a righteous dude. in summation: LA and SF are the faves of course but Kershaw showed he's human last year and the Giants offense looks beatable. The Pads giving away wins shouldn't hurt either. As I type this a friend and my two hunnids are floating somewhere above the bible belt towards Vegas where the oddsmakers are giving 50-1 or more. I like those odds and will be following this team thru at least June . .. budb