So I'm in a H2H points league that starts 1 catcher and was surprised by some of the results when I ran projections for this year for my point system and assigned z-scores for the positional groups.
Basically when just using a z-score for the top 12 projected catchers, I generally get Z-Scores anywhere from around 1.2-2 for the top three trio of Posey, Sanchez, Lucroy. For people not particularly familiar with that, it means that Posey/Sanchez/Lucroy are being graded out as top 20 players based on their points compared to the rest of the catchers. If Posey is scoring 420 pts, and say Wilson Contreras is projected like 320 as the #5 catcher, it means Posey is quite valuable more so than expected. I've run the scores with all the projections like ZIPs, Steamer, Baseball Forecaster and all generally come with a similar value placed on the top catchers.
My question is, since this really doesn't fit with the narrative in fantasy baseball, what's wrong here? Should I be trusting that at least in PTs leagues that the top catchers are particularly undervalued? Like Posey may be in the value range of a Manny Machado and Sanchez like a Corey Seager. I'm not advocating people pick them at this value, still wait to pick them at the ADP, maybe jump a round earlier but maybe in points league catchers who play a majority of the time and hit are worth a lot more than conventional wisdom.
For reference I also ran the numbers based on how catchers actually scored in the 2016 season to see if projections underrated the middle group of catchers but found the numbers to be more or less in line with the projections for this year and the z-scores. Posey still popped a 2 last year.
It seems weird to me too and I am probably wrong with my method of calculation but I just wanted to get people's thoughts on using Z-Scores for points league valuations and why are catchers so high? I've attached a pic of my work for it. I wouldn't focus too much on the projections since they are a composite of ZIPs/Steamer and a few others so there shouldn't be any huge outliers.
I've also included the overall Z-Scores, and for the most part they line up with what you would expect with the exception pitchers are quite valued (makes sense this is a H2H points league) and closers can jump high in points leagues as well.
Any criticism on the method or input is welcomed, just trying to figure if it catchers are undervalued in points leagues or maybe just my method. Thanks.
Catcher Z-Scores: http://oi64.tinypic.com/1078hg1.jpg
Overall Z-Scores: http://oi67.tinypic.com/n52dx.jpg :