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About lobsterback

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  • Birthday 03/31/1992

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  1. The Giants are now available! Looking at a definite rebuild, so hit me up if you love the prospect game! Email at cwhittl3@gmail.com Link to roster spreadsheet
  2. Hasn't this thread just become the "2019 shallow sleepers" companion to the MUCH more valuable "2019 deep sleepers" conversation?
  3. I really don't think that Canario has the ceiling of Valera, Robinson, or Rodriguez based on what I've read - he has neither the refined hit tool, power or speed that those 3 poses in various combinations. He is certainly a prospect to own but not on the same level IMO
  4. I traded him for Yu Chang in a league where I need some SS depth and was happy to do it. Although a pull-heavy hitter with limited defensive value can certainly succeed in Toronto I'd rather place my trust in a more defensively oriented player with similar reported tools but less statistical production
  5. I hate to say it, but that 235/.309/.398 looks very Keon Broxton-y. Without the 40 SB upside to accompany it I wonder if we might be getting carried away with a NFBC ADP of 171 since February 1st.
  6. I've been mulling over selling him in my dynasty league and decided to dive into his 2018 MLB production. I think there are some factors hinting at significant risk that he fails to approach his 2018 triple slash. For his first 31 games Laureano sustained a pull rate above 50%, accompanied by a 48% hard hit rate and wRC+ of 161. From there on out his production began to approach league-average, finishing the year with a 15-game rolling average of 92 wRC+ driven by plummeting pull and hard hit rates - finishing the year with a 15-game sample at 33.3% and 25.6% respectively. Visualization via Fangraphs. What changed? He started seeing a dramatic increase in sliders, up from about 13% at his peak performance to 23.5% by the end of the season. With that his O-Swing (swing rate at pitches outside the zone) increased from its minimum 15-game average of 18.4% to 34% again at season's end. Troublingly, he went from never having hit an infield fly in his first 31 game sample to hitting them at a second "half" average of around 14%. Again, visualization via Fangraphs So it's pretty apparent that the current "book" on Laureano is to throw sliders. The pitch location charting ability is limited in the Fangraphs tool outside of plotting zone%, which remained pretty consistent both before and after the increase in slider% and decrease in wRC+. I infer from this that he wasn't being thrown junk and chasing, but take it as indication that he might have a definite issue squaring up sliders. Again this is hardly evidence of a hole in his game due to the inference on such a one-dimensional statistic, but does fit the narrative I've constructed. As stated before, he is a definite fantasy value regardless due to the current ADP (provided hype doesn't drive him up this spring), HR & SB upside, and the fact that elite defense will give him plenty of leash. But I would put my money on Laureano coming closer to "THE BAT" projection of .235/.309/.398 than the Fans' crowdsourcing estimate of .274/.360/.458.
  7. Shhhhh about Prospects Live, you're costing me my 2024 deep dynasty titles! No better top 30+ lists than Fangraphs and PL. For being the new website on the block the quality and quantity of content that they are putting out is astounding.
  8. In an unlimited minors league I would literally roster every tee-baller in the database. Maybe that's some slight hyperbole, but if there are any players on the ImaginaryBrickWalls top 450 (I think that number is right?) that aren't owned I'd add them. Rotowire has a top 400 that is excellent and kept up to date through the season, subscription required but totally worth it. Fernando Tatis Jr was ranked 30th on the MLB Pipeline J2 rankings during his signing period, so I would always roster the top 30-50 international guys.
  9. If you're interested I can send you the rest of the 6 rounds, just DM me
  10. Getting a lot of buzz in the industry thanks to the ProspectsLive guys. Big power upside, has earned his now-consensus top 150-200 ranking
  11. Preferably 1000 minor leaguers owned. Otherwise format is not as important.
  12. For the record my name is NOT Matt w
  13. I'm interested too. Would you send me the rosters of the 3 available teams to me at cwhittl3@gmail.com?
  14. At risk of stirring up the hornet's nest I'll leave this snippet from last week's Longenhagen chat. Certainly doesn't give us any more confidence in Golden's question marks (basically everything BUT the power) but knowing that Longenhagen replied "yes" to him being a "legit prospect" (whatever that means) gives me some comfort that I didn't waste the last pick in my SUPER deep dynasty draft. Over 1400 prospects owned, so let's not get carried away. Matt w: Is Colorado OF Casey Golden on anybodies radar as being a legit prospect? Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, the power is real
  15. One of the strongest teams in the league, the Red Sox, are now available. Link to the roster spreadsheet. Please email me at cwhittl3@gmail and briefly detail why you'd be a great manager for the team!