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About lobsterback

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  • Birthday 03/31/1992

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  1. 2019 "Deep" Sleepers

    Already owned, I believe he was a 2017 J2 signee
  2. 2019 "Deep" Sleepers

    Agreed. Funny enough the same team that nabbed Nunez. In our league ATL is no prospect slouch. I'm pretty proud of my Jhon Torres pick at 22nd overall too
  3. 2019 "Deep" Sleepers

    In my league's offseason draft of J2 signees plus previously unowned minor leaguers (basically 2018 breakouts) Nunez went behind Orelvis and Noelvi. Draftees from the June Amateur Draft were already drafted, so this is not a FYPD. I think you would advocate that Nunez should have gone just after Luciano? 1. NYM - Luis Patino, P, SD 2. HOU - Victor Victor Mesa, OF, MIA 3. TB - Josh James, P, HOU 4. SFG - Brayan Rocchio, SS, CLE 5. LAD - Marco Luciano, SS, SF 6. MIN - Colin Poche, P, TB 7. MIL - Orelvis Martinez, SS, TOR 8. BAL - Noelvi Marte, SS, SEA 9. ATL via NYY - Malcom Nunez, 3B, STL 10. TOR - Cavan Biggio, IF/OF, TOR 11. CIN - Tony Gonsolin, P, LAD 12. PHI - Richard Gallardo, P, CHC 13. SD - Jordan Balazovic, P, MIN 14. COL - Kevin Alcantara, OF, NYY 15. TEX - Diego Cartaya, C, LAD 16. DET - Junior Sanquintin, SS, CLE 17. CHW - Misael Urbina, OF, MIN 18. ATL via PIT - Deivi Garcia, P, NYY 19. WAS - Julio Pablo Martinez, OF, TEX 20. SEA - Mike King, P, NYY 21. CLE - Francisco Alvarez, C, NYM 22. CHC - Jhon Torres, OF, STL 23. ATL - Osiel Rodriguez, P, NYY 24. BOS - Antoni Flores, SS, BOS
  4. 2019 "Deep" Sleepers

    I think the argument that Nunez played in the DSL the same year as his signing can be used as a crutch. That is you can take it as a positive as most J2 signees don't play until the following year, or a negative in that while he played the Cardinals didn't bother to bring him stateside for that ball. I think we should throw that argument out as a potential data point. I'm with you, the numbers are beastly and he appears to be an exciting prospect. However I am yet to see a reputable prospect analyst place Nunez at anything other than 1B long-term, and several have said he is limited to 1B already (not a good sign for his prospects cracking a NL roster). I think he should be up there in your J2 ranks, but probably falls behind Noelvi Marte and ahead of Alexander Vargas in my own rankings, good for 8th overall. Don't be suckered by the statline this far away from the majors, there are plenty of levels for supreme athleticism to win out over a season's production in the DSL
  5. 2019 "Deep" Sleepers

    A ton to like from a fantasy perspective though the consensus is that he'll shift off shortstop eventually. Plus bat speed, uses a high leg kick at the moment. Has above average speed that the pros think he will grow out of as he is 6'1" and 185 lbs already at 17. James Anderson with Rotowire (best prospect ranker in the biz IMO) has Martinez around 50 spots higher than Marte at the moment, but we don't really have any substantial info to differentiate them at the moment besides current frame and the resulting projection and defensive implication.
  6. 2019 "Deep" Sleepers

    I like Orelvis Martinez as the 3rd best J2 prospect, lots of offensive potential there. Reminds me of Ronny Mauricio at this point last year with more power projection. But everyone else likes him there too, or flip-flopped with the Mariners Noelvi Marte; he's not much of a secret in my experience so far. Lower ranked guys that I think should be ranked much higher in fantasy leagues than MLBPipeline has them ranked: Alexander Vargas (solid tools across the board, most importantly the hit tool), Kevin Alcantara (Yankee hype, plus speed and defensive potential, high reported exit velos) and Alvin Guzman (another potential power+speed combo). I've heard good things about Misael Urbina too but don't know much about him and saw he is already highly ranked on mlbpipeline, so may not be much arbitrage opportunity in offseason drafts.
  7. 2019 "Deep" Sleepers

    Very good point. Heck I ignore all J2 pitchers completely. Looking back since 2015 this would have bypassed drafting top-30 J2 arms like Yadier Alvarez, Adrian Morejon, Norge Ruiz (remember when he was a thing?), Cionel Perez, Vladimir Gutierrez, Eric Pardinho. Some nice names there, but those are just the prospects I have heard of. Plenty more that I have not. That means this year steer clear of Sandy Gaston, Richard Gallardo, Starlyn Castillo, Osiel Rodriguez. Draft the non-catcher hitters ranked around them like Alexander Vargas, Kevin Alcantara, Junior Sanquintin. Just remember to come back to this forum in 5-6 years time and beg Brock and I to sign your baby's forehead as your dynasty team is in full force.
  8. 2019 "Deep" Sleepers

    I want to point you to a post I made a month or two ago (linked below) in which I show the last 4 years of J2 classes and compare the MLB Pipeline rankings from that season to their overall prospect rank today. I was trying to make a point about the tremendous volatility of the J2 rankings published by mlb, as the final overall rank of those top 30 J2 signees can be all over the place. As I said before, find Tatis in the 2015 ranks. He is all the way at the bottom, number 30, not what I would call a top international signing in most of us dynasty players' frame of mind. This is the argument that we need to confine ourselves to - do you draft Luis Matos (last hitter on MLBPipeline's 2018 J2 ranks) or Casey Golden? Brockpapersizer advocates for the J2 signee, pointing at Tatis as a prime example of the upside. I agree with him, but I wouldn't draft Golden all that far behind Matos.
  9. 2019 "Deep" Sleepers

    I should have specified, top 30 in the 2018 J2 class. For example Freddy Valdez of the Mets (27 on the list) went about 60 picks ahead and Luis Matos (29 on the list) about 80 picks ahead of Golden. In most cases I would much rather take the shot at getting a Fernando Tatis Jr (who I think I recall was ranked 30th on the same MLBPipeline list) with these picks, and therefore agree with taking the J2 player over any non-pedigree (say 6th round draft pick or later) college bat in the low minors. I think you'll agree with me there, and this is a point that is worth sharing to give our fellow dynasty players an edge in the prospect game.
  10. 2019 "Deep" Sleepers

    We are officially all on the same page here. Gallo would be an absolutely INCREDIBLE outcome for Golden, so much so that it doesn't even make sense to even bring a top 10 mlb first baseman into this conversation. Just making a 40 man roster is beyond my reasonable expectations for a 20th round pick. You can say the same about all of the 16 year old J2 signees not listed on MLBPipeline's top 30 list, which is the group of prospects where I think Golden should be ranked around
  11. 2019 "Deep" Sleepers

    This one is going to bring back the Casey Golden haters, but check out the Blue Jays 10th rd pick Cal Stevenson's rookie ball stat line: 29.9% walk rate, 11.1% K rate, all while racking up a triple slash of .369/.511/.523 with 21 steals and was only caught stealing once! 22 years old, a lefty bat that likely profiles in a corner spot, Stevenson again probably doesn't have an everyday regular ceiling at the moment but us deep dynasty players have to pay attention to the statline so far. Again 2080 has great open-faced video of his swing from this summer. Looks like his hands are pretty noisy during the set up, and he is definitely out on his front leg when he makes contact in the last at bat of the video. All you more qualified swing mechanic gurus please share your thoughts!
  12. 2019 "Deep" Sleepers

    Dom Thompson-Williams, OF, SEA (as of today) I was just about to write him up when the Paxton trade came out, so long "sleeper" status. A 5th round pick in 2016, DTW finally broke out in high-A ball this season to a .290/.356/.517 line with 17 HR and 17 SB good for a 147 wRC+. Keep in mind the solid points made about a 23 year old in A-ball from the Golden discussion, but DTW (I'm making that abbreviation a thing this season) put up his numbers with a 25% K rate. Below is a nice open-faced video of his lefty swing from early in 2018. In their recent top Yankees prospect list the Prospects Live writers made a solid point about the way in which DTW loads his hands low and keeps them low through the initiation of the swing, and the resulting concerns about his potential to continue to hit for power. However, (prior to the trade) DTW can be grabbed for free in most prospect settings, with decent pedigree and now very above-average offensive numbers on his resume.
  13. 2019 "Deep" Sleepers

    Let's turn this into a more productive discussion, less about Golden and more about low-level outfielders. Some guys I took ahead of him in my recent draft that IMO should fall into the 300-400 overall range of prospects, with obvious upside to jump that: Anthony Garcia, OF, NYY 17 year old 6'6" switch-hitting outfielder who reportedly moves well for his size, but has the K% that typically accompanies a frame like his. 2080 Baseball has several clips of him (one below), but I feel like his mechanics at this stage don't reveal as much about his potential as his body and the fact that he is with an organization that has at least been able to harness Judge's similar body. With an obvious comp like Judge around in a big media market, Garcia could become a benefactor of serious prospect hype, a fact that savvy dynasty leaguers might be able to exploit.
  14. 2019 "Deep" Sleepers

    Nah I don't think there was any "know-it-all" sentiment going on, just debate over where Golden belongs in prospect ranks. The prospects1500 minor league draft (link below) had him WAY too early around 250. Other than that he has virtually zero media coverage, so we will have to take a wait and see approach until either a Rockies top prospect list comes out mentioning him or a scout with an internet presence writes him up.
  15. 2019 "Deep" Sleepers

    Man I created quite a stir with my mention of Golden, but I think we are all on the same page here. There are definitely 400 prospects I'd rather have, likely more. Looking at James Anderson's ranks at Rotowire I selected Golden over Jack Herman (314), Luis Madero (326), Jamie Westbrook (364) but otherwise his top 400 was pretty well picked over. In deep leagues like mine (1440 minor leaguers owned) guys like Golden are worth picking up, and I thought worth a tout in this thread.