WEIL3R

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Everything posted by WEIL3R

  1. Well, seven games is a lot of games. Unless he tears an ACL or you believe he is going to repeat the same injury cycle as last year (and come back too early from injury), I don't see him missing more than seven or so games...which is a lot. He isn't worth taking in the 3rd round if we know he will miss seven games. It is just one possibility to consider on a spectrum of possibilities. The examples were just to illustrate what would happen in a couple different scenarios. I think he misses fewer than seven games. I would put his over/under around four, but he might miss 10 or none...or all. I'm not trying to sway anyone either way. He is clearly a risky pick. I generally don't play PPR and his ceiling in standard is quite high. Everyone has to weigh for themselves whether the potential return is worth the risk.
  2. He's an enigma to me. As a Dolphin fan it's difficult to fully believe in him, but his running style (quick, over-sized COP back) fit perfectly into what the Chiefs were doing. If they feed him and declare him the starter, sign me up. I'm not sure how they are going to use Hyde. He doesn't seem like as good of a fit for their system, but maybe their system is so RB-friendly that Hyde becomes dominant as well which translates to a more even committee? I don't know how this is going to shake out but there's no denying that Williams made the most of his touches last season and looked good doing it. My gut tells me the job is Damien's to lose. And that's all you can really ask for in a starting RB.
  3. He's someone that I will definitely look to add at the right price. He is the classic high risk/reward type player. I want someone in round 3 that can perform like a round 1 pick. Even if he only plays 9-10 games, it's not like you take a 0 in the games he doesn't play. You put in your next RB up and hope the 9-10 weeks he plays include your playoff weeks. Or he shakes the injury bug and plays 14+ games, providing excellent value. With Fournette there can be an issue of him suiting up, playing a series, and getting pulled due to re-injury. That is when your fantasy team is hurt the most, but it is built into his price (clearly not enough for some people). Assuming he doesn't continue to spiral downhill with injury problems, it's hard to imagine his value ever being lower than it is now.
  4. Surprised there is a fair amount of Ingram hate. He is a complete back that has been under-utilized. Sure, he is one year removed from "peak" RB years (23-28), but I would argue his inconsistent usage still puts him at the end of his prime. The main question for me is the competency of the QB to keep defenses a bit honest. Will Lamar check down to Ingram when in trouble or will he look to run? The answer to that question might have the biggest impact on Ingram's fantasy value.
  5. Derrick Henry will lead the NFL in rushing OJ Howard finishes as a top 2 fantasy TE Ryan Fitzpatrick finishes as a top 12 fantasy QB (assuming he starts at least 15 games) Leveon Bell finishes outside the top 15 RB's in standard fantasy scoring
  6. Another exception is if you are in a keeper league, particularly one structured where you get to keep players based on where they were drafted the year prior. Drafting Hunt in round 10 in 2019 and having the potential to keep him in round 8 or so in 2020 might be a good bargain. Anything he contributes this year come playoff time would just be gravy. Wouldn't work as well if you have short benches. If Hunt comes back and looks good in his late season audition, I think the odds are good that he will be the starting RB on some team in 2020. If he looks bad, maybe it lends additional credence to the storyline of any decent RB appearing exceptional in KC's system.
  7. Looks like it's something new. The allegation suggests he harmed his three year old child. Still plenty more details to come out, I'm sure. A source familiar with the situation said Hill’s fiancee has been in contact with Overland Park police. The source said that the incident was against the couple’s 3-year-old son, resulting in a broken arm.
  8. Well, I think a huge reason is how the "guaranteed" numbers (all that really matters) are being reported. I thought Bell would get around $30 million guaranteed after hearing Gurley got $45 million guaranteed...but the "guaranteed" amounts for neither player are being reported accurately IMO. [Update (March 14, 3:08 p.m. ET): More precise details are now available. Per NFL Media’s Tom Pelissero, Bell is actually set to receive $25 million fully guaranteed. So this seems like it is less than what was originally reported. And seems particularly bad when you remember that Gurley supposedly received $45 mil guaranteed and that Steelers had supposedly offered Bell $32 mil guaranteed last year. But really Gurley's contract was only fully guaranteed for $21.95 mil and the Steelers offer to Bell was only guaranteed for $10 mil. After seeing all of the actual guaranteed money, I think Bell made the right choice. Had Gurley completely crapped out last year and been cut before Friday, all he would have received was the $21.95 million. Deadspin Article
  9. I think he's worth the risk. Huge upside and proved what he is capable of at the end of 2018. It's hard to imagine that the Titans will move too far away from what was working for them at the end of 2018...a heavy dose of Henry. Only time will tell but I think he's worth the risk. I have him ranked around Fournette, Cook and Ingram...which could easily change by draft time. Also, I primarily play standard scoring.
  10. From my understanding his hands are large for someone who is 5'10", but not necessarily large for a quarterback. More average for a quarterback, which is a positive since there were concerns about his hands being tiny.
  11. Interesting landing spot. Not where I expected, though it aligns with what the Browns have been doing (amassing talent at offensive skill positions). And they got him for cheap. They started last season with Hyde/Chubb/Duke. Now they replace Hyde with Hunt and wait to see how long the suspension will be. If they want to be a run-first team and open up play action opportunities for Baker (who excels there), it's possible they use Chubb and Hunt as a 1-2 punch, alternating drives as the lead back. Always having a talented, fresh RB is a luxury. They also know that either one could carry a full load in case of injury to the other. It's good to have insurance at RB, especially talented cheap insurance. Or maybe they trade one, but that is not what I would guess at this point in time. I don't see how the Browns don't make this move at that price tag.
  12. If Mahomes scores 5 more points than the second best QB in 2019 then he is worth a first round pick. That can't be argued against in any successful way. The only debate is his odds of outpacing the field with that kind of margin again next year. I think he has a decent shot due to his talent, coaching staff and youth (room for improvement) but it didn't happen for Peyton and Brady after their monster years. We will just have to wait and see. I'd be comfortable taking him in the second or the end of the first in 6 point TD leagues, barring some major changes before next season. Mahomes looks special. I wasn't nearly as sold on Watson's hot start last year. This guy is in the perfect situation, surrounded by offensive talent and great coaching.
  13. Well, this appears to be some kind of keeper league. Are a bunch of top players being kept? What is the likely quality of player that will be available at pick 12? Depending on your keeper format the trade might be okay, but making the trade this early seems ill-advised.
  14. I'm confident he will get at least 15 touches so I'm rolling him out there agains the Dolphins in the championship. He could easily hit that total by half-time.
  15. 12 Team Keeper w'return yards and 6 point passing TD's: My Team: QB: Mahomes RB: Barkely, Fournette WR: M. Evans, Cooks TE: Samuels Flex: Edelman K: M. Bryant DEF: Cleveland Bench: Kelly, CJ Anderson, A. Rodgers, Yeldon, A. Blue, Conner, Misc. Opponent: QB: Cousins RB: Gurley, L. Miller WR: Thielen, Lockett TE: Kelce Flex: J. White K: Badgley DEF: Dallas Bench: Sutton, Blount, R. Anderson, Winston, Balt DEF, Misc.
  16. I'm in three leagues. Nobody was in all three leagues, but the following players were on two teams in the championship: QB: Mahomes, Cousins RB: Conner, Barkley WF: Juju, That's it, really. Thought there would be more.
  17. Entire team in signature. 6 point passing TD's and return yards (1 point per 20 ret yards). Non-PPR. Keeper league where you can keep a player two rounds prior to where you drafted them the year prior (max three keepers). Carson could be a decent keeper (can be kept in 13th round next year) but we can only keep three players total and I already have amazing keepers (Mahomes, Conner, OJ Howard, Valdez-Scantlying, Cohen) to choose from. Rodgers is only going to make it in on my bye week (barring injury), which is the one big negative besides losing amazing QB depth. Love Mixon's schedule. Carson's usage is a bit up in the air with his hip injury, though he should start if healthy. Neither Rodgers or Mixon can be kept. My opponent's only QB is A. Smith. He is clawing one of the last playoff spots. I'm tied for first. WHIR
  18. So I'm pretty sure you're trolling at this point, but in case you aren't... In either case Bell will be a a free agent. In the first scenario it is because he signs and the Steelers can't franchise tag him. In the second scenario it is because (as you have noted multiple times), the Steelers will "NOT" tag him (due to the cost). I'm not sure why you put NOT in quotes. It's confusing me. On top of that, only in the second scenario (sitting out the entire season) is he exposed to no risk of football-related injury. That being said he may want to play a little this year to remind teams how good he is. But only Bell knows what Bell is thinking (and maybe...maybe his agent).
  19. I don't know what Bell is going to do, but to answer your questions: 1. So that he won't get injured. He will also remove the risk of looking equal to or worse than Conner if he plays this year (regardless of how likely you think this is, it is still a risk). 2. The point is that there is no way the Steeler's would franchise tag him a third time so he would become an unrestricted free agent.
  20. Standard scoring. Start Ingram @ Min or Chubb @ Pitt?
  21. This is great news. It means that Bell won't be playing for at least two weeks after he signs (since the Steelers would have to pay him if they play him...but since they don't plan to pay him it means they don't plan to play him). I've gotten as much out of Conner as I could have ever hoped. And things could still break even more in his favor depending on how things shake out.
  22. That is a lot of words to say that you agree with Impreza's take that Bell is a long shot to play week 8. If you think he will at best come back week 10, then surely he is a long shot to play week 8, no? As much as you would like to believe that your incredible deductive skills have lead you to the truth of the situation (actually, you will probably say that anyone with half a brain should have already come to the same conclusions), nothing released to the press from either side can really be trusted. That leaves interpreting Bell's actions and guessing at his psyche/true intentions. The degree of your certainty regarding this situation comes off as irrational and it detracts from the validity of your arguments. You may end up being correct, but pretending like you've gotten to the truth at this point is silly. Bell may not play another down for the Steelers. He could also come back week 10 and be in an RBBC with Conner. I can't see him not playing hard (if and when he plays) because he will be auditioning for a big payday. Behaving differently would be counterproductive to his best interests and the RBBC would keep both RB's fresh. Alternatively, he might get traded. Or maybe he has burned too many bridges in Pit and when he signs week 10, the Steelers use the roster exemption provision (assuming he is not in game shape), withhold a game check or two because of it, and let him ride the pine because they have moved on. Or maybe the Steelers decide to keep Conner fresh for next year and run Bell into the ground after he reports (unlikely). I don't pretend to know, but I wouldn't be shocked with any of those scenarios.
  23. I put out about five trades involving him last week to teams weak at RB. I ended up getting JuJu in a standard scoring league straight up (guy had Fournette, Cook, McCoy) and was pretty ecstatic. Also, another manager mentioned that he would have accepted my offer as well but the JuJu deal was done. So last week there was definitely some interest (in my league). Probably wouldn't have been any in PPR. However, after this week his value took a big knock. Week 4 could have been an aberration and game plan dependent. After this week, against an average team, it doesn't look as promising.
  24. I'm not sure how things are going to shake out between Howard and Cohen. Since I was deep at RB in one league (not the league in my sig) and needed a WR, I was able to trade him straight up for JuJu in standard. Just to give a frame of reference for value. I think Cohen will be more involved than the first few weeks but not as involved as he was last game. And while Chicago's offense looked good last game, it wasn't enough to convince me that they will be above average going forward. Due to the uncertainty I shipped off Howard, but he should provide solid production if Chicago's offense is for real. Their defense is definitely for real and I could see some game scripts that involve a heavy dose of Howard, despite him not being used much last game.
  25. I would do it. Just start getting some feelers out to potentially add some TE depth.