merlin401

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About merlin401

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  1. The problem with managers is we generally only see the decisions they make in the game, and often very knowledgeable baseball fans gets frustrated second guessing (or even first guessing) managerial decisions. They think "hey I could be making those decisions, or even better decisions" without realizing the thing real managers have that no fan or analyst would have is credibility. Managing the locker room, having the respect and attention of the players, motivating professional millionaires, etc is something a very few select people can do simply because of who they are. If that person intersects with someone with the analytical skills of Joe Maddox, great, but the other intangibles are more essential
  2. Whats the next two? I feel like $135 for Trout Harper and Votto is at least very good value, no?
  3. I guess for starters, every single projection system based on his minor league numbers
  4. So what's the news: Is the hype dying down? So far this spring in a very small sample we've got a 7.36 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 7:4 K:BB in 11+ innings so is new Bundy same as the old Bundy or is there more to the story?
  5. Does Holliday go the other way often for his homers though? Because Yankee Stadium is so hitter friendly mainly because of the comical right-field wall.
  6. Godamnit Liriano, not again. Why must you tempt me??
  7. I didn't mean my comment to be a slight on Salazar's raw stuff which I agree is superb, but a commentary on Carrascos stuff which I think is even better.
  8. You could say the exact same thing about Salazar, though, who doesn't have Carrasco's command or his stuff.
  9. Last year he had 15 walks in 12 innings (this year 10 in 8.2), so yeah, I wouldn't worry too much
  10. Actually this strategy might have been even better if he also purchased Billly Hamilton. Now all of a sudden he can easily win steals too and you're really screwed in some weeks.
  11. Absolutely true. The issue is baseball is part coin flips and part actual skill (of many rotating parts), so its up to the user to determine which is effecting the results more. But both parts should be considered.
  12. Just a statistician's 2 cents on the word "unsustainable" If we flipped a coin 10 times and got 7 heads, I'd say it was an "unsustainable" result. That doesn't mean it couldn't happen again (and I wouldn't even be surprised if it did), but I can't be expecting for it to happen again, and I certainly can't be expecting 70% heads to be the new normal.
  13. Park factors are not actually that easy to compute. #1 there is a lot of random year-to-year variance anyway, but then you have other issues. What if you have a young pitching staff that easily gets rattled on the road? Or the same for young hitters? What if you are Tampa and you play so many Road games in great hitting parks. Now you are comparing your own park, not to just generic "other park averages" as the formula is assuming, but you are comparing it to how much you score in inflated run environments instead. If you compare your runs scored to the average, then you're using different sets of players to get the numbers. No matter how you do it, there are significant other factors involved. The only option is to aggregate numbers over many years (and even then you can run into trouble: is KC a terrible homers park because its REALLY hard to hit them there, or because its moderately harder to hit homers there and KC always makes rosters that have line drive hitters to take advantage of this; etc etc)
  14. That strategy is not as easy as it seems. They won't have many innings so when they get a bullpen blow up here or there, there is going to be real trouble. Also, every other manager can adjust and only start their 2 or 3 best starters. Its not too unusual you can get a gem early in the week and put a ton of pressure on the bullpen only team, either to pick up a starter to try to counter-pressure you to starting more pitchers and ruining an unbeatable ratio, etc.
  15. Eh, Alvarez is a long way from the majors still and of course injuries can creep up any time. I wouldn't personally build him into your plans for 2018. Also which Gray so you have. If it's sonny, then with him and price it's going to be a scary year for your staff (btw I still advocate for doing this deal)