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About merlin401

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  1. Yes. More precisely, I believe that projections are useful, albeit not infallible, tools for predicting performance and they are almost uniformly predicting something that looks like a $20+ player to me. I still don't really believe the projections, because well, no one else seems to as he is going for $1 everywhere. So bottom line is, yeah I'm buying for sure.
  2. I feel like this is actually common for keeper leagues too. Especially those that employ minor leagues and things. Star position players often become immediate stars and they rarely deal with debilitating injuries so seemingly great deals on young guys just stay great deals. Pitching prospects often flame out or bust or get injured for over a year: so the pitching market you end up having to pay for. In my main league its almost a 50-50 split in terms of resource allocation.
  3. I'm not sure I agree with this. I almost always do this, often filling out a decent amount of my team this way. You should have a list of every player's value and bid accordingly because its unlikely your targets are going to be the player's who go for a great discount. Generally I have a list of everyone's pre-inflation value (i.e., everyone *should* be going for 20% more or so). If a person is going for less than that, then I keep bidding unless I absolutely hate them for some reason. Last year none of these boring guys were my target but I ended up with them because they were going for far less than my projected value: Hanley was going to go for $15, got him for $18. K. Seager was going to go for $15, got him for $18. Kinsler was going to go for $18, got him for $19, DJ Lemahuie was going to go for $1, got him for $4. Meanwhile some of the players I was targetting instead went way above their value like Josh Harrison, ended up going for $18, and Ben Revere went for $24. Second aspect: by doing this you will also drain your opponents out of savings. Example: Miguel Cabrera was nominated first, everyone is gun-shy, and he was going to go for $39..., I bid him up to $45 and let him go to an opponent for his exact pre-inflation value (still a solid deal, but not a WOW, AMAZING deal it could have been.) And I didn't need him at all, but hey, nothing wrong if I got stuck with Miggy at $40.
  4. JFS I get your point regarding Buxton and Baez and their strikeout issues, but I see that as much as a negative for Buxton than a positive. Baez always had strikeout issues. We knew that is who he was for forever, and that he has slowly been improving to a passable player at the next higher level is reasonable. While Baez has spent the past two years adjusting and improving slightly, Buxton has spent the last 2 years breaking (and being injured). He WAS a player that didn't have problems. Now all of a sudden he has every problem. I don't know how you can have any confidence about anything relating to him. Lottery ticket to me.
  5. Not to be a pain but I'm just super curious... how are keeper prices determined? I never saw a keeper league where the price wasn't fixed by some formula or known standard so that everyone knows how much everyone would be to keep at any time.
  6. It does cost a lot: two roster spots.
  7. But that's only half the year, plus the fact that a ton of visiting catcher will be owned (esp NL West ones like Grandal, Posey, Hedges...). That doesn't make much sense either.
  8. I don't understand... why did the previous thread have all different prices? Anyway I pick Gray easily, then maybe McCullers Then I take Dahl and Hanley at those prices
  9. Odubel projected at $20? That seems ambitious. Its hard to believe he is going to be that much better than, say, Kiermaier who I'm sure will not be very expensive.
  10. deGrom and Gray for pitchers hitters are very difficult: they are all around where their value or ADP is. I actually think the best value personally is Hanley at DH. But probably the league will view McCutchen as the best value. I'd be tempted to try out Dahl at 10 if you don't keep an OF.
  11. It was 19.6% last year (although the ridiculous season he had the year before it was 15%... but he walked 103 times in 142 games since he was hitting .385. Anyway, that will have to fall in MLB as he will certainly no longer be the most feared player in the league).
  12. Brett Pill is doing almost precisely what he did in AAA in the KBO though. If someone was putting up routine 1.100+ OPS seasons with 40 home run power and some speed, we'd be drooling. I'd be a lot more wary if he was just having .300/.400/.500 type seasons with a 20% k-rate in the KBO. I'm much more intrigued by this .325/.425/.700 player...
  13. You have to take him at 42, yes. I view him as a SP 3 or SP 4 if you want to be really safe. Now into SP 5 range he is a no brainer, especially in a smaller league like this.
  14. We don't know much about Thames but I feel this is pretty far off on Solarte. Last year he was worth 2.8 WAR despite missing a decent amount of time. Even with the lost time, he was within the top 75 most valuable position players and top 50 infielders in all of MLB. Given that and his youth, no doubt he is an MLB starter. I think he gets underrated because people jump from "he wouldn't be a clean up hitter on any other team" to "he wouldn't be a starter on many other teams" without thinking of the huge difference between those two statements!
  15. I actually like Johnny, but I don't know... this song seems a bit too hokey and not enough bad-a**. I think we can do better!