Established Members
  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

645 Excellent

About merlin401

  • Rank
    On the Ballot

Previous Fields

  • Add to Mailing List?

Recent Profile Visitors

1,570 profile views
  1. Scooter Gennett 2018 Outlook

    FA pickup (!) surely this is a post from mid-2017 and not mid-2018!
  2. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    Was there any gloom?
  3. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    Take the bitter with the better, so in the interest of fairness here is my third and final Soto watch update (I’m tired of watching Nats games now) Ab #1: patiently waited for his pitch (including checking his swing at Ross’ good slider). His pitch ended up being a 2-1 fastball that was a bit high and he just got under it: hit it to the warning track in left with the wind blowing in Ab #2: first pitch swings over a slider. Lays off a slider that dove into the dirt. Took a fastball on the outside half. Good two strike approach, wide stance and choking up on the bat. Great take on a nasty slider down and in to get to 2-2. Fouled off something inside and then struck out swinging on something that looked like a decent straight pitch to hit. Ab #3: Tyson Ross basically ate him alive with sliders. He looked like a 19 year old striking out here. Ab #4: they bring in the lefty closer Brand Hand for him. Took a curveball off the inside corner and a nasty slider just on the outside corner. Laid off a fastball that sailed down and away and then wrapped a hard grounder up the box that Hand knocked down on a pretty good pitch to hit.
  4. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    Of course you're right, and there are thresholds at which certain stats become statistically significant, none of which Soto is anywhere near. But those thresholds are not just binary switches where what came before was meaningless and what comes after is the real player. Instead its just a game playing with confidence intervals. Even small samples allow you to start making judgements on likely outcomes. Here's just a small example. Trevor Story came up in 2016 and lit the world on fire. He had 7 homers the first week and was absolutely going crazy. But how long did it take him to draw 3 walks? A long time. By the time he got his third MLB walk, he had already struck out 21 times. He also had a 1.131 OPS and was a darling of the fantasy world. But by looking at Story's approach, you were not yet able to rule out that he could become a .230 power hitter who K'd 180 times a year. But watching Soto you can already start to see, "hmm, probably he's not going to be that guy". That's why I love to dissect the early at bats. You can't say what he is definitively, but you can start to see what he is not.
  5. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    Probably because J.D. Davis is 25 years old. The point here is not that these 3 walks were the most impressive thing in the world. Soto is a rare and special talent and he is 19 years old. People are trying to figure out what exactly he is going to be Can he contribute to fantasy rosters THIS year? Can he become an actual superstar in future years? He's only seen about 100 pitches EVER above A-ball so can he lay off anything at the MLB level? All these are very interesting questions and the walks today tell us something about those answers. Having watched the game, I'd say the % of MLB players who get a walk with the pitch sequence / game situation he saw would be something like 99% on AB #1, 30% on AB #2, and 60% on AB #3. Is that fair? So based on that, I say that maybe this 19 year old kid has at least a slightly above average MLB batting eye right now. You're saying, "boo hoo, lots of people have a slightly above batting eye" and everyone else is saying "holy s&!$, a 19 year old who was promoted to AA two weeks ago already has a slightly above average MLB batting eye right now- that's crazy!!"
  6. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    If it’s so easy, you’d think a lot more prospects would have a lot better walk rates! There’s so many people coming up that are swinging away and striking out a million times that it’s nice to see someone with talent who also has patience and composure. And sure free passes are just “given to you” but, I mean, the kid had 75% of the free passes issued in the entire game today (both teams combined)!
  7. Jose Martinez 2018 Outlook

    Lol yikes. My take away is don’t get used to a SB next to his name too often
  8. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    Here’s your nightly Soto-watch update: Ab #1: four pitch walk. Pretty terrible pitching really as three of the four pitches weren’t close. Then he got picked off first by a decent amount although it was a borderline balk Ab #2: another four pitch walk, this time more impressive as the first three pitches were just beneath the zone. That’s pretty impressive patience from the kid Ab #3: finally gets a strike from Lauer (first pitch curveball). Next a cutter on the inside corner that he turns on and smacks a hard grounder to right for a single (101 mph exit velocity) Ab #4: yet another at bat vs a lefty (Strahm) and yet ANOTHER four pitch walk, the last pitch of which was so close it might have been a strike. Again in the bottom of the ninth tie game it was nice to see him lay off some pitches with that whipping left to right action instead of being amped up. Ultimately like the first walk this pitch sequence was one the average MLBer should walk on. Then he scores the walk-off run
  9. Mookie Betts 2018 Outlook

    Really there is only one more you can hopefully use. “MVP”?
  10. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    The article is a little confusing honestly. They acknowledge that his grades were conservative since he was so young, inexperienced, and far away to begin the season and that they need to be re-evaluated given his recent success. Then they make this very similar comparison to a college kid who is years away from being on top 100 lists but grades out similarly. And then ends the article saying well Soto is in the bigs now so that just goes to show you how these two are miles apart. Weird: I read it all and got basically nothing useful out of it
  11. Bo Bichette - 2B/SS TOR

    Definitely struggling this year with the long look at AA pitchers. Power isn’t there yet, he is 1-4 in stolen base attempts this month, and K-rate is up around one punchout per game. For any that actually watch him, what adjustments is he struggling to make?
  12. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    The lock is over, here is the game summary for you: ab 1: first pitch crushed opposite field that jumped off the bat (106 mph) and smashed off the decking 422 feet away ab 2: rolled over on a pitch to shortstop. Nothing notable ab 3: flight off a pitch on the inner half nicely and grounded it hard up the middle for a single. Seemed fast rounding the bases on an ensuing triple. Ab 4: worked the count to 3-2 and showed his good plate discipline. Could have walked (chased a pitch slightly high that could have been ball 4 and he seemed slightly ticked at himself). Then turned on a breaking pitch down and in and lined it into left right at the defender. Impressive
  13. 5/21 - GAME DAY THREAD

    You are getting some negative likes but I 100% agree in a redraft. Soto will take his lumps this year no doubt.
  14. 5/21 - GAME DAY THREAD

    Isnt he the first teenager batter in MLB since Harper? (I guess technically Urias could have hit a homer in his starts but that would have been quite a shocker!)
  15. 5/21 - GAME DAY THREAD

    Well I guess Soto broke his thread with that homer. Sweet swing and it’s nice to get one early so he knows he can succeed and then he can adjust without too much mounting pressure