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About merlin401

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  1. Luck vs Skill Revisited after 2017

    I'll add to that: H2H playoffs in week 25 (last week of the year) possibly relates inversely to the better team. Like you I have gotten to several championships with amazing rosters only to see my great players completely benched for no reason the entire last week and my best pitchers shut down or skipped for the playoffs.
  2. Greg Bird 2018 Outlook

    But his park and swing suggests it, if Bird reaches his reasonable 2018 potential
  3. 2018 First Rounders Discussion

    Well that's true. I don't think that is indicative of a lack of respect for Yahoo's rankings algorithm though. I just think the more standard default league (particularly among experts) is 10 team with 5 OF, CI/MI, 2 catchers which is what ESPN does. Its a preference, but I prefer having a standard MLB roster make up and more teams (like Yahoo does). There's actually 3 issues: Ownership, pre-ranks (which I like Yahoo better), and the literal ranking algorithm (which I don't think anyone knows precisely what they do under the hood; and since the standard leagues are different its really hard to say which is better or even if they have significant differences)
  4. Well despite Kluber, I finished third after disappointing in the playoffs. Time to re-tool. 16 team league, $260 budget (although I have $245 due to trades next year), and added categories are OPS, K for hitters and CG and K:BB for pitchers. Also the league is pitching heavy (for reference, last year we had these auction values: Bumgarner $66, Strasburg $47, Bogaerts $39, Votto $39). Here's my options (pick 6): Kluber $27 Justin Turner $25 Betts $20 Cody Allen $18 Correa $15 T. Walker $12 C. Martinez $11 S. Gennett $10 Treinan $10 David Peralta $7 Iglesias $7 Rich Hill $6 Also of note: I have Sohei Otani in my minors who I can call up for free. Prices increase $5/year. Thank you!
  5. 2018 First Rounders Discussion

    Well, what you're describing doesn't make Yahoo rankings worse; it just means the different rankings are tailored to different sized leagues. ESPN standard is 10 teams too, and Yahoo is 12 teams so they're different for those reasons And I also disagree: I see ESPN and Yahoo ownership cited side by side on most fantasy articles, including on Fangraphs
  6. 2018 First Rounders Discussion

    I'm not sure what algorithms they use, but essentially you're just computing standard z-scores for all the various categories. But there are some tricky statistical questions. For example, when a category is several statistical categories above average (say batting average), but done in a smaller sample, how does that get weighted. Its not strictly appropriate to just multiply by a proportional weight (thats honestly what I do computing my rough estimates, but I don't run a multi million dollar fantasy website). Other categories are even more difficult. Our league counts K:BB as a category, and this can be particularly tricky because unusually low denominators inflate the K:BB such that a z-score may think a really super unprecedentedly high K:BB is really only the result of a several walk difference. Anyway, that's just a few issues. My sense is yahoo far over-values elite relievers though. I'm not sure if it is because they haven't properly figured out a good way to downgrade a rate stat that is elite over a small sample, or if its because teams generally add and drop pitchers so that if you played all year with locked rosters, maybe RPs would be that valuable, but with add drops, you end up with a higher volume of SP innings, thus diluting some of their values.
  7. Evaluating Pitchers for 2018

    Couple thoughts: * Otani is an interesting wildcard (will be fascinating to see where he is ranked, although thats for more reasons than just ace upside). * I feel like Rich Hill is the type of player that can really help. People will just want to stay away from him (injury risk, age, consistency), but he can feature as a top SP for the 4 months a year he is pitching (just beware the slow starts, regardless of health) * I'd be very happy with Paxton or Ray in the mid-round: two guys up and coming. Similarly, I think Jon Gray is underrated due to Coors but he can be a chance to be very good. * I put Bumgarner nearly on the top 4 tier. He is basically my target, after the first four (and I mean "my" in general sense because in my league he'll surely go for $55+ and I'll be priced out)
  8. 2018 First Rounders Discussion

    THis is my first round 1-trout 2-altuve 3-arenado 4-goldschmidt 5-Blackmon 6-Harper 7-rizzo (a few slots down without 2b like he has in yahoo) 8-betts 9-turner 10-votto 11-stanton 12-if this is the turn I take correa plus one of the big four pitchers (Kluber, sale, Kershaw, scherzer).
  9. 2018 First Rounders Discussion

    Thats the most arbitrary benchmarks ever; especially when dee Gordon is the ONLY player with sixty steals. 20-100-20-100 are pretty standard bearing numbers
  10. J.D. Martinez 2017 Season Outlook

    Going back further, lets put one more in the comparison M. Ramirez, LAD: 53 games, 187 ABs, 17 HR, 53 RBI, .396, 1.232 OPS Cespedes, NYM: 57 games, 230 ABs, 17 HR, 44 RBI, .287, .942 OPS JD Martinez, ARI: 58 games, 218 ABs, 28 HR, 64 RBI, .303, 1.123 OPS The real interesting one was CC Sabathia for Cy Young in 2010 17 GS, 11-2, 1.65 ERA, 128:25 K:BB in 130.2 innings, 7 complete games and 3 shutouts (!)
  11. I agree that this first picture is a bad call (and a famous bad call from a few years ago), but how much better would that look with Yadier Molina framing that. It missed the plate but not by nearly as much as the catcher made it seem by his horrible framing. There's an article on fangraphs about it, with a screen shot at when the ball crosses the plate and, yeah, its a ball, but its not an egregious ball (and catchers have stolen equal to that and mostly people just accept it and move on). This was a particularly interesting case where #1- it ended a close game and #2- the catcher was inept. Even still, I'm ok if you wanted to challenge it, and get 30 seconds (MAX) to get it right because at the end of the day it was the wrong call.
  12. Interestingly I had the exact same comment as you, two posts above you (although I am generous, and gave them 30 secs max lol)
  13. I understand your point that a blown ball/strike call can feel huge in the moment. But I just don't feel that happens too often in a blatant sense so that I don't want the extra half second delay on every pitch (its annoying enough when an ump does those delayed strike calls as it is). Let's solve all our problems. If you have an egregious call in a big moment regardng balls and strikes, let that be reviewable too. Let teams get as many reviews a game as they want, until they get 2 wrong. Have ump's with an earpiece as you described. When a challenge is issue a timer starts and umps have THIRTY seconds to get the reviewed call from New York, or wherever. If they can't figure it out in 30 seconds, the call stands. Keep the game moving.
  14. Head 2 head playoff updates.

    Meh, would have beat any other team during the bye week... would lose to every team during the semi's... ahh! week to week variance, you are a cruel god
  15. Yeah, I disagree with this. Yes, a baseball game can potentially diverge at any point for any reason. You could say a long instant replay might have thrown a pitcher off a very good rhythm, and that the walk or homer he let up right after might have gone a different way had there been no long delay. And yes, you can argue a single pitch changes everything, but at the end of the day its one pitch among many to make up an at bat, which is just one component among many to make up a rally, which is one component among many to make up the game. Even if a single pitch goes against you, you have ample opportunity to make a better pitch next (or next at bat), or had ample opportunity to make better pitches to not be in that count to begin with, etc. Long story short is I'm fine with the way it is. And what's more, I think instant replay currently does more harm than good to the game watching experience, and those often decide more significant components of the game than one pitch. I'm fine with technology to correct OBVIOUS, blatant mistakes. When it takes five minutes to determine if he was indeed safe by some atomic level distance or not, that's stupid and frustrating to me, and it kills the visceral moments of the game. Now all the building tension simmers away during along replay, when it reached one climactic release directly after the action with an umpire call. And again, if its obvious, if the ump calls it safe and everyone and his mother saw the tag, then go f'ing fix it, yes. Otherwise, leave it be! I'd say about 80-90% of the time they waste time on replay in my experience, my thought is "they shouldn't overturn that either way, no matter what the ump had called".