FFCollusion

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FFCollusion last won the day on December 13 2016

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  1. Jarvis Landry 2018 Season Outlook

    Welcome to 2018 everyone, where the list of dumb ish for people to be offended by, has now been expanded to include... Leather Jackets.
  2. Derrick Henry 2018 Outlook

    To a bunch of guys defending a player who busted 2 out of 2 seasons? I mean seriously, how do you value someones football opinion if they think a guy who busted 2 out of 2 years as a threat...speaking of embarrassing?
  3. Jarvis Landry 2018 Season Outlook

    I don't particularly understand the hate for slot WRs on this forum. Teams want to move the chains and keep offensive drives going. Landry does that; plain and simple. You think front offices care whether he does it from outside or slot? Even if good teams did care about that, the Browns are in no position to get picky about how they keep their offense on the field. The Patriots have exploited slot WRs to massive success over the past decade, and the RB position in that same time frame has adapted to maximize those same routes, part of the field, and offensive philosophy. Why are fantasy football players so far behind the curve? Why are RBs like Bell/DJ praised for having success in that part of the field and being a boon to fantasy scoring, but slot WRs frowned upon for it? Are you guys aware that 3 of last year's top 5 WRs in fantasy football were slot WRs? 4 of the top 10? (5 if you count Hill who runs from the slot 35% of the time) Or 5 of the top 12? (6 w/ Hill) Doug Baldwin finished 14th, also a slot WR. For per$pective, the past 3 years: Landry's Cap hit is $15.9M with $9.4M Guaranteed a year. Fitz's Cap hit is $15.85M with $11M Guaranteed a year. Friendly reminder: There are only 6 WRs in the league with more fantasy points than Landry since he's entered the league, 4 years ago. (PPR. Don't @ me with your scoring settings, IDC)
  4. Andrew Luck 2018 Outlook

    It's way too early in the season to even bother, but I think Andrew Luck's upside has been severely blown out of proportion. He had a historical year in 2014 by throwing 40 TDs... and still wasn't that great from a fantasy perspective. *For reference, I'm looking at 4pt TD leagues, if you play in 6pt TD leagues, then that would alter it slightly, but not much really. 2014 was a down year for QBs overall, as was 2017. Currently it's to be expected as we're actually witnessing an era on its downward slope. Brees and Brady just aren't the fantasy players they were. P.Manning Retired. Rodgers to a lesser degree, but he's 34, entering his... what, 15th year in the league? Is older than we want to admit and without Jordy has had production questions to say the least. Romo retired, Rivers and Eli probably already should have, but are sticking around. Ben wants to, but the Steelers are a SB contender with their current lineup so he can't walk away yet. Andrew Luck has the 'upside' of a top 5 QB, I don't deny that. But in today's landscape you have to be honest with yourself about what top 5 actually means, if anything. Fantasy is about points scored. So if 'top 5' today means you're in a class of QBs like Wilson, Cam, Alex Smith, and Wentz who are all teetering between 19-21 PPG... does top 5 still hold the prestige when the 'field' is averaging 17-18? 13 QBs last year averaged 17 PPG or higher. Kirk Cousins was a top 5 QB, and averaged just 18.2 PPG. So is Andrew Luck's 'upside' of a top 5 QB, really any higher than a guy like say... Stafford, Matt Ryan, Jimmy G, Cousins, etc? Cuz those are the QBs currently sitting at the 9-14ths ADPs of QBs. (ADP is useless right now, but we have to have a baseline) Luck's 2014 was just 366 fantasy points. He finished 1st overall, and had a good year in fantasy football, a great year in real football. Unfortunately the year before (2013) that P.Manning put up 420 fantasy points. The year after (2015) Cam put up 399. The next year after that (2016) Rodgers put up 383. In 2011 Brees and Rodgers both broke 400 fantasy points. In 2010 Vick put up 314 points... in just 12 games. Averaging 26.2 PPG for a year long extrapolation of 419. Andrew Luck, before any of the injuries, had 'top 5 upside' and even then, it didn't mean a whole lot. Today, post injury, in our current landscape of declining studs, and minimal rising stars, his upside is much lower, and even hitting top 5, will not have as much fantasy impact as it has had for the past decade. That has to be taken into account when considering the value of a QB in our game. There's a genuine chance, we never see Andrew Luck play football again. It's sad, but true. If Andrew Luck isn't on the preseason field, or at least being specifically held out, despite legitimately being 100%, then he's a DND for me personally. His upside isn't as good as people like to make it out to be, and there's a very strong chance that post-injury he never even obtains that upside again anyways, IF he even touches the field to begin with.
  5. Andrew Luck 2018 Outlook

    Unless I see him in a preseason game, he won't be in my top 12 QBs, and shouldn't be drafted until double digit rounds in my opinion.
  6. Doug Martin 2018 Season Outlook

    "Fool me one time, shame on you Fool me twice, can't put the blame on you Fool me three times, **** the peace sign Load the chopper, let it rain on you." -J.Cole 2014
  7. Derrick Henry 2018 Outlook

    Yeah guys, Danny Woodhead totally sucked on SD after he left the Patriots, right? Right guys? You know... Those 2 years he was a top 12 Fantasy back, and caught 81 and 76 balls... Yeah, definitely a product of the NE offense.
  8. Derrick Henry 2018 Outlook

    2017 team rushing stats: New England: 448 attempts, 1,889 yards, 4.2 YPA, 16 TDs. Tennessee: 443 attempts, 1,833 yards, 4.1 YPA, 18 TDs. Next?
  9. Derrick Henry 2018 Outlook

    Lewis: 180 carries, 896 yards, 6 TDs. Henry: 176 carries, 744 yards, 4 TDs. Lewis: 35 targets, 32 catches, 214 yards, 3 TDs. Henry: 17 targets, 11 catches, 136 yards, 1 TD. Lewis: 197 Fantasy Points, 12.3 PPG Henry: 135 Fantasy Points, 8.4PPG
  10. How Often Do RB's & WR's Meet Their ADP?

    But how many of those RBs and WRs were actually drafted in the first round? RBs have the greater ceiling sure... that's never been in question. The question is do they return value on their ADP, and in regards to this discussion (and almost always) people are discussing heavy investments in the early rounds of a draft relative to their return. If going back to 2000, I'd guess in the 60% range for RBs, due to the mainstays like LT, Holmes, Fualk etc. Narrow it down to this decade, and I'm guessing we're right back to the 50% coin flip. The fact that RBs have a higher ceiling, means nothing, if the RB who reaches that ceiling was obtained in the 13th round (Kamara). *Kamara didn't reach 350, I'm just speaking in general. I have zero issue with drafting RB heavy, or RB early. I DO have an issue with people saying you should draft RB early, because Kamara(13th), Hunt (4th or even later based on draft date), Ingram (5th), Hyde (4th), McCaffrey (3rd), Duke (7th), all helped carry their teams to playoffs/championships. Over the final 5 weeks of the year, Dion Lewis, Giovani, Alex Collins, and Kenyan Drake all helped people make a playoff push too, but that's not a valid argument for drafting RB early. If the basis of your argument for drafting RBs back to back in the first round, includes the results, stats, or game logs, of a RB drafted after those rounds the year prior, then your argument is inherently flawed. (Not at you IC, just a general statement) I've stated in multiple threads, over the past 2 years, that 2015 was a turning point for RBs. To reiterate what IC alluded to above, the RB class is evolving. The 2015, 16, and 17 years, mark a transition from old players to the new generation. The reason RB reliability was in flux, was because we watched the generational mainstays fade from existence for one reason or another. Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, McCoy, CJ2K... we watched their careers fade. These guys were every year RB1s that you could count on. Those days are gone (Shady excluded). We now need to assess the current class, and decide who will be the next group of guys, if any, you can rely on the same way. Bell, DJ, Gurley, Fournette, Kamara, Zeke, Fournette, etc. Can they become that next class? Time will tell. Long story short, every player needs to be assessed individually. Just like roulette, betting on red or black might be roughly 50% chance of winning, but that doesn't mean every red number or black number can be assumed to possess the exact same 50% chance. Just because RBs have a 50% of returning value on their ADP, Busting, Beasting, etc... doesn't mean every RB is equally as risky. WRs shined strongly while the NFL adjusted to the loss of the RBs mentioned above, while the WR class was in their prime (Dez, AJG, OBJ, JJ, AB, DT, Jordy) But now, we're watching this group start the downslope of their careers, while the younger RBs are on their upslope. There is no black and white strategy for fantasy football, every year is a new evolution of the league, the sport, the players, and therefor the game we play trying to predict it. We can learn from the past, but each year has to be measured on it's own merits. It's no coincidence that the peak of ZeroRB's popularity is in the exact time frame of the transition from the RB class formerly discussed. Look at this year, this season, this crop of players, and the scenarios players will be in this year, to then decide for yourself which players you want to target, or avoid. I can give you all the stats in the world, but they're only numbers. Numbers don't make judgement calls, that's our job. Good luck.
  11. How Often Do RB's & WR's Meet Their ADP?

    Good post. For those who want to look deeper at the numbers, prefer PPR scoring, or want a more recent cutoff, all of the above are included. Last offseason's post, 7 years of PPR data, 3 years of PPR data, split by 6s, and 3 years of PPR data split by 6's, as well as some discussion and observations. 2018 version pending.
  12. Jarvis Landry 2018 Season Outlook

    2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 4 year cumulative PPR fantasy points for every WR who has finished top 30 at their position for all 4 years. *OBJ, Fitz, and Sanders failed to meet this requirement in 1 of the 4 years, but were included for reference. Tl;dr there are only 6 WRs in the league with more fantasy points than Landry over the past 4 seasons.
  13. David Johnson 2017 Season Outlook

    DJ and Ameer both came in to the NFL in 2015. Abdullah career fumbles: 7 Johnson career fumbles: 11 Abdullah games missed: 17 of 49 Johnson games missed: 15 of 50 While I 100% agree that DJ is lightyears beyond Ameer in regards to NFL success thus far and the foreseeable future, it's rather foolish to use fumbles and injuries as your foundation for that argument. I'd stick with production and talent, in which DJ has been head and shoulders above Ameer. Predictable response: Yes, even on a per touch basis, DJ still has a higher fumble rate. 1:52 vs 1:60 for Ameer. Ameer: Career Touches 426, Career Yards 2,908 DJ: Career Touches 573, Career Yards 3,844
  14. Early 2018 Top 20 Rankings

    I hear this often and I while I think it sounds good in theory, no one has ever managed to prove it in practice. The easiest way to prove this point is rather simple, if you're willing to be honest with yourself. If you joined a league, where you only had to start 1 WR, 1 RB, and 1 TE... would you alter the value of Gronkowski in this league? Are you now moving Gronk into the 1st round, because, as you claim, elite WRs and RBs (that we're discussing in the first 2 rounds) are now less valuable? Or would you still rank the exact same RBs and WRs ahead of Gronk, that you do right now? Different people will have different answers, there's no right or wrong answer really. The question I would ask, is why would you alter your rankings based on position only, and not the points they score A: Overall and B: Relative to their position. The real reason people stack RBs, is because they fail so often. The reason they invest so heavily, so early, is because as a community we've ranked and agreed that certain talents, combined with certain situations, lead to the most likely path of fantasy points. Without accepting or admitting it, we've all just agreed we're playing the RB lottery each year. Sure we have personal opinions, reasons, research, stats, etc to backup our standpoints... but ultimately, all the research in the world didn't help if you drafted David Johnson. No amount of research and preparation could have prepared you (on draft day) for Ajayi or Adrian Peterson getting traded mid season. I'm straying off topic, so let me try and reign in back in. D&D above said he did 'just fine' streaming with Doyle and Ebron this year. A sentiment we hear often but that I very rarely believe, and assume they've never actually broken down the math. Now... I could break down how rare it is for a streamer to successfully land a top 6 TE (Doyle) or how that even if you do it, that it only applies to 1 out of the 12 people in your league, when 9 of them were likely streaming this year... but I don't think I need to. I could also break down how rare it is for a streamer to successfully start the 'right' tight end each week, yet alone do it 16 times in a row... but I don't think I need to do that either. Here's what I'll do. I'll give D&D the BEST case scenario across the board. You're a streamer, you land a top 6 TE and a low end TE1/high end TE2 (Ebron finished 13th) I'll put their games side by side, and I'll pretend that D&D picked the right one, EVERY week. Doing the above results in 10 games from Doyle, 7 games from Ebron, for a PPR PPG average of 12.9. Just to clarify, for 17 weeks, I took the highest scoring result from either player, and used those combined-game-logs to come up with this average. 12.9 points per game. Rob Gronkowski averaged 17.3 Points Per Game. That means blindly starting Gronkowski each week, resulted in 4.4 PPG advantage over the 'perfect' streaming TE, who actually landed a top 6 TE. Knowing this information, I want you to look at every WR or RB in the 2nd round, and tell me... which of them offered you a 4.4 PPG advantage over your opponent? A refresher course: (Via FantasyPros ADP) WRs taken from 13-24 in 2017: Amari Cooper (11.3) Brandin Cooks (13.7) Dez Bryant (11.8) Doug Baldwin (13.8) TY Hilton (11.1) Again, I'll give D&D the best case scenario of Baldwin's 13.8. In order for him to make up the 4.4 PPG deficit from his 'perfect streaming TE' to Gronk, his opponent needed to be playing a WR scoring 9.4 PPG. In 2017 there were fifty-four (54) WRs who averaged 9.4PPG or higher. So his opponent on average, needed to be starting a WR5. Think about that for a second, and ask yourself, what was easier for someone to successfully identify and play each week, a top 6 TE, or a top 54 WR? Which one was more readily available on the WW or easier to isolate based on matchup/opportunity in any given week? How about a hypothetical, what if I told you I'll give you a top 6 TE every single week... how often do you think that TE goes off like Gronk can, and single handedly win you a week? Again, this is best case scenario, assuming you made the right pick every time. Do you have any idea what the range of outcomes is in just this streaming scenario? Let's say you have the worst luck in the world and chose the wrong TE every single week. You would have had a weekly average of 6.4 points per game. In this scenario, Gronk held a 10.6 PPG advantage over you. A 10.6 PPG gap from Baldwin is a WR who scores 3.2 points a week. 149 WRs managed that 'feat' in 2017. Maybe you picked the right TE half the time, putting you somewhere in the middle, for 9.6PPG. Now Gronk holds 7.7 PPG advantage. Better hope your opponents WR was only averaging 6.1 PPG, of which 92 WRs did this season. RBs are a bit muddier, as I concede we're playing the RB lottery. 2nd round RBs include Gurley, Zeke, Ajayi, and D.Murray. Zeke is unfair as his cost was directly related to his suspension. Gurley was unquestionably a better investment than Gronk. Ajayi was a bust, Murray was meh and Gronk was the better investment. Using the Gronk PPG advantages from above: 4.4 (best case) 10.6 (worst case) 7.7 (avg case) Murray is a decent example of a non-lottery winner or loser, finishing 20th overall scoring 11.6 PPG. So your opponent would have to start a RB scoring: 7.2 PPG (best case) 64 RBs managed this 1 PPG (worst case) 144 RBs managed this 3.9 PPG (average) 105 RBs managed this Again, the PPG advantage is great, but often difficult to articulate to this forum, and numbers seem to make peoples eyes bleed. So while I think Gronk offers the highest predictable PPG advantage in the game we play, I think that's a secondary benefit. The main benefit, as mentioned previously, is that his 'range of outcomes' is 2. If he plays, he's a top 2 TE. If he's hurt, he doesn't play. There is no Todd Gurley 2016 scenario for Gronk. His value, is in his predictability. We know exactly who he is. Maybe you can land Kelce or Ertz, but how many people with that logic drafted Reed, Olsen, or Rudolph? Maybe you can land Doyle or Engram, but how many people with that logic drafted Howard, Ebron, James, Gates, etc etc? It all sounds so easy pre-draft to say 'just draft Reed a round later' 'just stream 2 cheap upside guys' and then turn around and tell everyone how well it worked, without ever checking the numbers, or proving it. Just because you think something 'worked' doesn't mean it actually did. Making the playoffs or even winning a championship, doesn't mean you should ignore the shortcomings of your season, nor is it justification to repeat strategies or actions, with no thought to how they actually played out. Anyone could have had a nightmare draft, and won their league. Consider drafting David Johnson or OBJ in the 1st Amari Cooper or Jay Ajayi in the 2nd Crowell or Pryor in the 3rd Martavis or Mixon in the 4th Powell, CJA, Parker, A.Rob in the 5th... And then Ingram, or Landry, Kamara, Hunt(based on draft date), Theilan, Marvin Jones, JuJu, Duke, Dion, and the list goes on. Doyle, Engram, Ertz with Alex Smith... and you have a championship contending team. Landing the late lotto tickets is more important than trying to maximize your upside in the 1st/2nd. So many people are blinded by trying to find the 'next' big thing, that they leave points sitting on the board, for fear of missing out on the potential upside. There's a lot of ways to win this game and I'm not here to tell you your way is wrong. I'm just trying to share how I see it, and why I value Gronk's predictability so highly. I'll accept missing on Todd Gurley in 2017, if it helped me avoid the other 10 busts in the 2nd round. I like to play the odds. We can debate the odds all day long of any strategic betting game in the world. Roulette, Poker, you name it. I can give you all the stats in the world of why betting on Green is a low percentage play. Why raising pre-flop with 2/7 off suit is a bad idea... but they are just odds. In any given roll, any given hand, any given fantasy season... it can still pay off greatly. That doesn't make it a good bet. Good bets don't always win. Bad bets don't always lose. I'm just the guy who shares the odds, plays the odds, and can accept any outcome, because all possibilities exist on draft day. The 8% chance of landing Todd Gurley in the 2nd round, means it can happen in any season. Betting against it doesn't always working out, but I can easily stand behind the logic with no shame. There are only 4 WRs I'll take over Gronk next year, roughly 8 RBs, but time will tell. *Disclaimer This post wasn't meant to be directed at D&D, he just shared his example, and it fit the narrative perfectly. Not personal. Edit to add: QBs vs TEs are drastically different than most people realize. Unfortunately QB scoring varies so widely across leagues, it's tough to pin down. I play Yahoo for my personal leagues, 4pt TDs, 25:1. Rodgers is the baseline with a score of 21~24 PPG in my opinion. Matt Ryan was the 24th QB on a PPG basis with 15 PPG. That's a 7 point spread from QB1 down to QB24. A 7 point spread in TEs, is Gronk at TE1 down to Jordan Reed at TE9. That's DRASTICALLY different. Pretending QBs and TEs are similar, just because you only start one of them, is high on the lists of most short sighted arguments I've run into on this forum. (Not at you specifically Hawk, it comes up a lot)