FFCollusion

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FFCollusion last won the day on December 13 2016

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  1. I'm impressed... you guys managed to make this thread look worse than Bortles does on the field.
  2. Fair Market Value is a tricky concept to pin down given so many variables in the way we draft, combined with using year end results, versus draft day investments. For example.. we're comparing Brady's value to 'QB6' at years end. Then calling 'QB6' the replacement we are comparing Brady against. But do we all remember where Brady was drafted last year? QB6. Sure this was due to his suspension, I get that. So we compare him to the year end QB6, Dak Prescott... But Prescott is currently listed as the 10th QB off the board. Cam Newton is currently QB6 on draft day. If we're trying to separate the 'top 5' from 'replacement' I get that, but... Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins both finished top 5 last year, and Brady if we use PPG. All 3 of these guys were 'replacement' QBs in the draft last year, but are now the class we're measuring replacement against? And you can see how the lines begin to blur. Unfortunately, I don't have a solution, but just wanted to at least make it known, something to consider when trying to accurately define Fair Market Value. Using Tom Brady and his PPG average/advantage, to justify drafting a QB in the 2nd round, when Brady was taken in the 7th... seems counter intuitive to me. What I actually came here to post though, was something people might over look. A few mentioned how incredible or efficient Brady was last year. A few mentioned the addition of Gronk and Cooks. In Yahoo Default scoring (using FFToday) Brady averaged 4 more points per game with Gronk (5 games) than he did without Gronk (6 games) in the fantasy season. 3 of Brady's top 4 games, came with Gronk on the field. His completion percentage was 11% higher with Gronk, completing the same amount of passes, but requiring 5 less attempts. He averaged 55 more yards per game with Gronk, and his TD/INT was about the same. For what it's worth, Brady's games with Gronk Extrapolate to: 531 attempts, 387 completions, 5,232 yards, 38 TDs, 375 Fantasy Points. #2 behind only Rodgers.
  3. It's a hard question to answer without being biased, because of the way you presented it to me. Basically, I've been challenged to find a statistical reason of why Freeman shouldn't regress. I can find statistics that back that up, but without a comparison, I'm not sure how confident I can be in them. So, let me be upfront here. The reason Freeman is in the Murray/McCoy tier, for me, is because he's been rock solid 2 years running. It actually has less to do with him, and more to do with M.Gordon and J.Howard being 1 year wonders. Can Freeman regress? Sure. But look at your regression projections for Freeman. Pretty solid. Now tell me what a regression for M.Gordon looks like. Look at his 2015 season. Howard is a rookie, and I'm pretty blanket statement when it comes to my 1st round pick, and people who have only played this game once in their careers. Howard just won't be on my team. Hell people want to brag about Howard's 1300/6 season, but will turn around and shun McCoy in 2014 because he was a 1st round bust when he only had a 1300/5 season. Sure Howard is a rookie, so it's more impressive in 'real' football terms, but I'm not in any point-per-rookie leagues. Does anyone know who the Bears #1 WR will be next year? Cuz I don't. Who's their starting QB come week 1? I'm not calling Howard T.Gurley, but man... their situations from rookie to sophomore season sure feel eerily similar to me. An impressive rookie season, despite a crap team, a new QB comes in, no real WR threat (Sorry Britt defenders) and defenses adjust. Sure OLines, OCs, etc come into play. You won't hear me argue Howard's talent, or workload. There are just too many variables in his environment that prevent him from the tier of RBs we're discussing. Melvin Gordon? Melvin Gordon has yet to play a full 16 game season yet. He's also yet to reach 4 yards per carry. He's a quantity not quality type of fantasy player thus far in his career. He hasn't impressed me yet. He had a solid season, but I think people are slightly blinded by the TDs, where he had 12 in just 13 games. Woodhead's exit drastically (and artificially) inflated the value of M.Gordon. I do not believe this was by design, and I do no think it's how SD... errr LA?... wants to run their football team, ESPECIALLY given that M.Gordon couldn't hold up to the load. Leaving us with a back dependent on touches and TDs to get fantasy points, in a situation where I expect his touches to fall, and I expect his TDs to fall. *Let me clarify, I drafted M.Gordon all over last year, and multiple posters of this forum, literally laughed and mocked me in the draft lobby. He was a cheap back, with 3 down capabilities, that everyone was down on after a poor rookie season. This is not a bias against Gordon. Post-Hype-Sleepers are real. I could be wrong across the board, but even if we ignored all of his on-field-downfalls... he has to stay on the field. His injury concerns alone, drop him below Freeman for me. Also, because it's slightly relevant: M.Gordon was 3rd in the league, with 50 rushing attempts inside the 20 yard line... tied with D.Freeman. M.Gordon was 3rd in the league, with 27 rushing attempts inside the 10 yard line... tied with D.Freeman. M.Gordon was 3rd in the league, with 17 rushing attempts inside the 5 yard line... 1 ahead of D.Freeman. *Keep in mind, Gordon played in 3 less games. My point isn't that Gordon wasn't impressive, it's that Freeman, despite his committee, was still a top 5 back in these categories in the Red Zone. Of note... 9 of M.Gordons 10 rushing TDs came from inside the 5 yard line. I'm not saying that's a bad thing, per se, because it secures his role as the goal line back, but... does it make him goal line dependent? I don't know. But if a vast majority of your TDs come on goal line plunges... what happens if your team doesn't get to the goal line as often? Food for thought, David Johnson had 12 TDs from inside the 5, the same as L.Blount, which lead the league. To put this into perspective, only 3 of Le'Veon Bell's TDs came inside the 5 yard line. But, that's also an unfair comparison, as it doesn't account for total TDs. Okay, so that's the long and short of why those 2 won't be in the same tier of Freeman for me. I don't have a big enough issue who want to put them in the same tier to argue about it, it's not unreasonable. As for the regression, and potentially biased statistics since I'm specifically looking for something to disprove the claim... The funny thing about prolific offenses is understanding why they were prolific, and what that means for certain players. Were the Falcons prolific because they ran a million plays, up and down the field scoring left and right? Or... were they prolific because of how efficiently they moved the ball up and down the field, scoring left and right? Is there a difference? Does this difference effect RB/WR/QB/TE differently? In this scenario I think yes. Because if we're going to discuss this prolific offense and it's regression tell me... Why did D.Freeman have less attempts, less yards, less targets, and less fantasy points when the offense supposedly got better? I'm going to assume your answer is 'Because Coleman!' Fine, not a bad answer. But tell my why in this prolific offense, Julio Jones had less targets, less catches, less yards, less fantasy points? Julio just had his worst year since 2012, even on a per-game basis. So if the offense was so good, why did the 2 biggest fantasy players have worse seasons than when the offense was average? Was it because they ran 78 fewer offensive plays in 2016, than they did in 2015? Was it because Matt Ryan threw the ball 97 less times than his previous 3 year average? Was it because Matt Ryan threw 38 TDs, 13 more than his previous 3 year average? Was it because Matt Ryan threw 7 INTs, 8 fewer than his previous 3 year average? If Matt Ryan doesn't turn the ball over, and successfully throws a TD, early and often on nearly every drive... is that a good thing or a bad thing for a RB and WR in fantasy football, who we depend on for carries, and catches to get our points? I don't know about you guys, but every time a 'drive' ends I'm disappointed if I own a player on that offense. If I own Freeman or Julio, I do NOT want to see T.Gabriel taking it 76 yards to the house on the opening throw from Matt Ryan. How effective/efficient/prolific the offense was on that drive HURT me, not helped. It's not just about the TD either. Gabriel can have the TD, but can my RB/WR get 5-8 carries/catches on the way down please? When I look at 2015 and 2016: 2015: Freeman 264 carries 97 targets Coleman 87 carries 9 targets Team 420, 1606, 4379, 5985 264/420 = 62% 2016: Freeman 227 carries 65 targets Coleman 118 carries 40 targets Team 421, 1928, 4725, 6653 227/421 = 54% What I see, is that the Falcons ran the ball 421 times, only a single attempt more than they did in 2015, despite 78 fewer plays total. Did you know the Falcons only had 20 more first downs in '16 than '15? A little over 1 a game. Matt Ryan actually threw the ball 36 fewer times this year. So, when I think of a regression coming... I'm thinking it's coming from the efficiency column, not the quantity column. Rushing attempts should go up, passing attempts should go up. Passing TDs should come WAY down, interceptions should go up. All of which forces the offense to be on the field more often, not less. More offense, more plays, and the 'pie' suddenly isn't getting smaller for Freeman, it's getting bigger. Tl;dr I agree a regression in efficiency is coming for the entire Falcons offense. But I think you might have incorrectly projected how that effects the team and its players, regarding rushing and passing attempts.
  4. Actually it does. In the past 7 years there has never been less than 5 RBs taken in the first round, even in PPR scoring. I highly doubt it ever happened before 2010 (but didn't check) and as for the chances of it happening in the future... 'there are none on the horizon' I made the connection to David Johnson to point out what @Felicia's Bye has already explained to you at length, and what the crowd has hopefully picked up by your evasive responses. Your logic is not consistent across players. You pick and choose when things matter, based on whether or not you like a player. You proved that by refusing to answer the question. It draws into question whether your analysis can be trusted, or whether you're just specifically biased towards/against players, saying anything you can in an attempt to discredit them in a misleading way to the people who read this forum. On the off chance others haven't picked up on it, to ensure this all ties back into LeSean McCoy the bottom line is this: If David Johnson (or Bell, or Zeke, Murray, Freeman, etc) fails in 2017, and is then a top 5 RB again in 2018... you should not let the odd fact that "he's never had a top 5 finish in back to back years" deter you from ranking/drafting him as a top 5 back in 2019. At least not on that merit alone. Ergo... the odd fact that LeSean McCoy (and nearly every RB sans 3-5) hasn't had two top 5 seasons back-to-back shouldn't be a justifiable reason to claim he's not worth a top 5 RB ADP. In my opinion.
  5. For what it's worth, LeSean McCoy: Rushes inside the 20: 38 (10th) Rushes inside the 10: 24 (10th) Rushes inside the 5: 9 (16th) Of the 9 carries inside the 5, he converted 4 for TDs. (14 total) Gillislee had 15/11/6 respectively. Of the 6 carries inside the 5, he converted all 6 for TDs. (7 total) J.Williams had 7/5/4 respectively. Of the 4 carries inside the 5, he converted 1 for a TD. (3 total) We still need to see what happens in the draft, but unless Williams is going to entirely slide into that role, I'd say it's a positive for McCoy. But he's already top 10 in rushes inside the 10 yard line, 11 more attempts just opened up, and despite being vultured, still managed to crank out 14 TDs last year, in just 15 games. As shown above, only 4 of McCoys TDs even came from inside the 5, so he doesn't really appear to be dependent on goal line carries to score, but obviously in the fantasy world, more is better. Lastly, McCoy is only 28 years old. Despite 8 years in the NFL, his 1,898 career rushing attempts are still relatively low compared to guys like Adrian Peterson (2,418) Matt Forte (2,253) Frank Gore (2,965) Marshawn Lynch (2,144) hell even CJ2k is sitting at (2,118). As mentioned previously, currently in a 3 man tier with D.Murray, and D.Freeman, from RB4 to RB6. How you rank them is personal preference, a strong case can be made for all 3. If you feel inclined to add Gordon/Howard, be my guest, but that's not my style.
  6. I have no opinion of D.Parker, but Miami can, and has supported 2 top 15 WRs at the same time for stretches. (End of 2014 Mike Wallace and J.Landry were both pacing top 15 year end status) The issue, for everyone not named Landry, is that there appears to be no clear #2 yet. Stills and Parker cannabalize each other, until one of them steps up or leaves, they're likely both useless. I have no issue if you want to bet on one of them to step up, be my guest. Don't forget about the rookie L.Carroo they drafted last year either, and finally that Gase brought in his old Red Zone pal Julius Thomas. Having said that, 2016 was a career outlier (in the bad way) for R.Tannenhill, and I don't just mean because of his injury. His 3 years leading up to 2016 look like this: 2013: 588/355/3,913/24/172014: 590/392/4,045/27/122015: 587/364/4,210/24/12 Arguably one of the most statistically consistent QBs in the game. Last year's 12 (full) games extrapolated to a full season: 2016: 492/328/3,736/21/14 You can see he was on pace to throw the ball about 100 times less than he has the 3 years prior, 40-70 fewer completions, 300-500 less passing yards, and 3-6 fewer TDs. Perhaps some of this is related to the success Ajayi and the run game had throughout the year, that's a very likely scenario. Ultimately, Landry is the only pass catcher on this team I'm willing to trust, especially when everyone keeps shunning him each year. I believe MIA and Tannenhill are capable of having 2 fantasy pass catchers, but it won't happen until a secondary receiver on the team earns the right to more targets than K.Stills. With Stills, Parker, Julius, Carroo, and an uptick from the backfield this year... it's not a bet I'd be willing to make. But I also expect Tannenhill to be closer to his 2013-2015 pace than his 2016 pace, which could just as easily turn the 56/744/4 or 42/726/9 seasons that Parker and stills had respectively allowing one of them to jump to into the 70/900/10 stat lines, for 220 PPR fantasy points, or WR18 in the 2016 season year end results. Landry is currently WR17 off the board for god knows what reason, and can be had at pick 36, right on the 3/4 wrap of 12 team PPR leagues. He's a better value there than Parker likely will be in the 8th, barring a big jump, which admittedly is possible. I currently see Parker in the 10th round, I assume he'll climb as his hype does, similar to last year. But there are multiple other names that will climb even further I suspect. Maclin, Decker, Snead just to name a few, all of whom I'd take long before Parker.
  7. While interesting, it's not the question I asked, nor is it the statement you initially made about McCoy. McCoy was in fact a top-5 RB in 2016, and has an ADP of a top-5 RB in 2017. Your argument against him was that he's never repeated the feat in back to back years. So the question remains: If David Johnson has a poor 2017... and then an 'excellent' 2018... you won't draft him in the first round of 2019, because he can't be trusted to have back to back fantasy seasons?
  8. Had no intention of being a part of this thread, but sometimes there's a stat I update, and it only applies to a single player, so it's the only place it makes sense to post. Having said that, please understand I'm not here to advocate for nor against Jordy in 2017. He won't be on any of my teams, but that's not a discredit to his skill, talent, situation, or track record. It's just the reality of the game we play and a basic understanding of ADPs. Anywho, last year in the Allen Robinson thread, the '14 TD' argument came up, and the comparison to Dez Bryant came up, to which I responded with the following: So, previously only 9 WRs (In the past 10 years) had ever reached 14 TDs in 1 season, and all 9 failed to repeat. In 2015 3 more WRs were added to the list: A.Rob, B.Marsh, and D.Baldwin all had exactly 14 TDs in 2015. A.Rob followed up with 6. Marshall followed up with 3. Baldwin followed up with 7. Jordy's 2016 performance brings us to 13 WRs in the past 11 years who have reached 14 TDs in a single season. Of these 12 times it has been done (prior to '16), it has still NEVER been repeated. Of these 12 times, the average TD rate the following year is now 6.16. Jordy doesn't need to repeat 14 TDs to be a top 12, or even top 6 WR, let me be clear on that. I want to emphasize this is not an argument for nor against Jordy, I'm just updating a stat, and this is the only player it applies to for the 2017 season.
  9. There has to be something better to use my memory on, but here we are. All credit to @hailtoyourvictor for originally finding/posting the data. Hopefully it works out better for Amari believers than it did for the A.Rob believers. Be forewarned the data was outdated last year, and is even less relevant this year, but... here it is regardless.
  10. Ctrl+F You're welcome.
  11. "Do you need any help?" Gronk interrupts a live press conference briefing today in the White House, lmao. Moving him up my board in point-per-awesome leagues.
  12. So just to clarify... if David Johnson has a poor 2017... and then an 'excellent' 2018... you won't draft him in the first round of 2019, because he can't be trusted to have back to back fantasy seasons? That's your current standpoint?
  13. I agree the list is short, my question is what bearing does it have on the 2017 fantasy draft? Bell, DJ, Zeke aren't on this list. No one in their right mind is taking Forte, Lynch, or JC in the first round, nor ranking them top 12. So how is the question not virtually useless in regards to ranking first round RBs this year, if the results of the question don't correlate? I'd also challenge people to show why 2 'excellent' fantasy seasons that happen back to back, are more meaningful than 2 'excellent' fantasy seasons that don't within the same 5 year period.
  14. When is the last time any RB had 2 excellent seasons in a row? Shady vs Murray is an interesting convo. As josh stated Murray has been top six, 3 of the last 4 years. Although McCoy has finished with more fantasy points than Murray 3 of the last 4 years too, that includes on a per-game basis as well. Manipulating stats for narratives is fun, but raw data for those who prefer it: In retrospect I think the edge goes to Murray, because he had 1 lost season, which was warned after the 390 curse, and many, myself included, think was more of an offensive scheme fitment issue than a skill/talent issue. Murray seems to have larger, scarier past injuries than McCoy, but has been mostly healthy since those 2 first years. McCoy is younger but only by 5 months, although he's older in the NFL, and workload wise. Murray does have the threat of Henry, but McCoy's last 2 years have essentially been with shambles of an offense, with a developing, and sometimes missing Tyrod Taylor, and a rotating door at WR. Murray has been on reasonably successful offense 3 of his non-lost 4 years. In 2016, they were separated by 20 rushing yards, 21 receiving yards, 2 catches, 2 TDs; also only 6 points apart in the fantasy season. We're splitting hairs here. To be fair, McCoy played 1 less game, did it on 59 less carries, and 9 less targets but... whatever. They belong in the same tier. Who you take first, is entirely up to you, and I won't argue either way for or against. I believe I have them in the 4-5-6 tier with Freeman, but the loss of Shannahan hasn't been factored yet.