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FFCollusion last won the day on December 13 2016

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  1. Apparently Danny Woodhead broke the NFL record for longest run ever.
  2. Show all math please.
  3. I guess I'm a noob. I'm gladly buying in the 10th/11th round. Alternate RB options in these rounds: James White, Samaje Perine, J.Stew, Jamaal Williams, Darren Sproles, L.Murray, Joe Williams, Giovani Bernard. I'm taking Forte first every time and I have no issues with Jamaal Williams ahead of Charles given his competition and offense. But the rest of these guys... I feel like I know exactly what they are, or can be. None of them have the upside of J.Charles, and in the 10th/11th round, I don't even care about floors. These are all or nothing rounds. Give me the guy everyone was buying in the 3rd round last year, who only added 12 carries to his resume in 2016, and is only a single season removed from averaging 21 points per game. Only Bell, DJ, and Zeke averaged more than 21PPG last year. Yes, the injury risk is real. Yes, the cliff risk is real. Yes, he'll likely be off my team before October. If these things weren't the most likely outcome expected by the FF community, he'd still be a 3rd round pick like last year.
  4. I want to be very clear that I am NOT here to defend Bortles. But... let's play a game. Over the last 2 years: QB#1: 1,231 passing attempts 9,002 total yards 63 total TDs 34 INT 8 Pick 6's 8 NFL Wins QB#2: 1,240 passing attempts 9,246 total yards 62 total TDs 34 INT 8 Pick 6's 9 NFL Wins One of these QBs is obviously Blake Bortles... One like to the first person to correctly guess the other QB.
  5. These are 8 of the 10 WRs being drafted directly after D.Adams right now: (PPR) Allen Robinson Michael Crabtree Kelvin Benjamin Brandon Marshall Jarvis Landry Golden Tate Julian Edelman Larry Fitzgerald Of these 8 WRs last year: 7 (88%) of them had more targets than Adams. 5 (63%) of them had more receptions than Adams. 5 (63%) of them had more yards than Adams. 10 games of 50 yards or less. (62.5 per game = 1k a year) Just for reference, there were 23 WRs to break the 1k mark last year, Adams was not one of them. Adams ranked 20th in targets, 22nd in reception, and 24th in yards... in a year that was bad for WRs, and saw 2 previous elite options get injured. (Dez and AJG) Chase TDs are your own peril. Currently drafted as the 19th WR off the board, it's not that far off of his no-TD stats, even if we assume the TDs come down to a reasonable level, so even if he repeats last year, but only 8TDs, he's still likely a low end WR2, for WR19 isn't a make or break investment. The issue is that when you draft Adams, you have to pass on all of the names listed above, who already have top 10 seasons to their names, without TD dependencies, some even top 5. Unless Jordy gets injured, or Adams turns into Jordy, I find it very hard to believe anyone will regret passing on him. I've seen people fall for this before. James Jones 2012, and then Adams fell on his face back in 2015. There are just too many better options at his price, he's a DND for me.
  6. The 150:1 Draft Strategy The long version: Each year my most important league, is the one I spend the least on. Arguably the least competitive league I'm in. It's the first league I ever played in and what originally got me hooked on fantasy football, or to be honest, football at all. It's a 10 team, PPR league with my closest friends, with a live (in person) snake draft. The buy in is a meager $30, a tenth of what I spend on other leagues each year, but it's the bragging rights that matter most. Through the years in this league, I've explored a lot of different strategies. RB>RB, Zero RB, 1st round QB, Streaming QBs, BPA, VBD, blah blah blah. You know what I've learned? None of them work and they all work. Any strategy in the world will fail, if you apply the wrong players. Any strategy in the world will work, if you apply the right players. Players win championships. Points win championships. Strategies don't. So the take away for me, was rather simple, but enlightening. I don't really care what position I get from the first 2-3 rounds, as long as they produce respectively to the price I paid. As long as you get 1st round production from your first round pick, you're going to be competitive. As long as you get 2nd round production (or better) from your 2nd round pick, you're going to be a just fine. Whether that's from a RB, a WR, a TE, or a QB it really doesn't matter... because points win games, not positions. Upon this realization, I also started noticing that the talent gaps in the first few rounds, are far smaller than those from the later rounds. That should usually correspond to your opinions on players as well. For example, realistically ask yourself, what's the difference between D.Freeman/L.McCoy and J.Jones/OBJ assuming they produce as expected? Likely minuscule. They're all first round picks for a reason right? They just play different positions. So when I was posed with this 'Best Player Available' strategy, I always questioned how do you decide who's better across positions? Now move down the board and ask yourself the same question. What's the difference between Cam Newton, Thomas Rawls, Zach Ertz, and John Brown, who are all being drafted directly next to one another? Chances are your opinions of these players and their potential production for the 2017 season are far more drastically spread apart than the D.Freeman/L.McCoy/J.Jones/OBJ comparison we made above. What does that mean? To me, it means that the 9th round is more important to building my team than the first round. Obviously this is an extremely odd perspective when you first hear it. It's going to appear very counter intuitive. But when you consider that your strongest opinions about players, and the largest production gaps between players within the same round, come later in the draft, it starts to make sense, that deciding between RB/WR/TE/QB in the 9th round is a much greater variance in fantasy scoring, than it is in the first round. So how do you turn this into a draft strategy, plan, or outline? You do the exact opposite of what common logic has told us to do for years. Common logic, says anchor your team around 3 studs early, and then use rounds 4-10 to build on that foundation. Making the reverse, to use the middle rounds as the foundation of your team, and use the first 3 rounds to build around the middle instead. This leaves us with an obvious problem. How do you build around the middle of your draft, if it hasn't happened yet? Oddly enough, the answer is the same for both trains of thought. Prepare for what's most likely to happen, but understand that often things won't go the way you plan. Have contingencies ready. Even people dead set on going RB early, need to know what to do if Antonio Brown falls to them. You can base everything you want on a dedicated plan, but once the draft starts, when **** hits the fan, you need to be ready. My draft for the league mentioned above is Aug 26th, we're ordering the Mayweather fight. Last year I finally won the championship, and 4 days ago, we set our draft-selection order using a 30 man Royal Rumble CPU event. As luck would have it, I also won the Royal Rumble and had first choice of my draft spot. So using the mentality above for my draft strategy, I'm going to attempt to walk you through how I made my selection, and how I've based my draft strategy for this league, in 2017. The first step, it to find an ADP that you trust and rely on. As mentioned, my league is a live draft, so there is no 'queue' of players that will manipulate the draft board. If you draft on Yahoo/ESPN it's very important to understand that their default rankings will largely dictate where people draft certain players and you need to take that into account. My site of choice is FFCalculator. That link will take you directly to an 'ADP' draft board for a 10 team, PPR league. To get to this yourself, you can navigate to the home page, select 'ADP'. From there select your scoring format, league size, and then ADP layout choice 'Draftboard'. The site allows you to 'click' on players and it will black them out. You can use this to either highlight players you want, eliminate ones you don't, or simply use it as a ranking sheet, and mark off players as they're drafted. For this example, I'm going to screen shot the image, and edit it, so that everyone can visually see my thought process, and what the draft board looks like to me when going through this process. Blacked out names = DND for me. (Added Kickers/Def just to remove clutter) Please understand that DND in regards to this forum, is almost always relative to their draft cost, not the literal meaning. So just because a player is DND at their price, doesn't mean I wouldn't draft them if they fell. Red Box = Target players. Players I think will have success relative to their draft cost. Untouched names, are players that really don't sway me one way or the other. It's rare to have a draft where you have confidence in every single pick, sometimes you're just taking the best of what's available to you, and you don't love them, you don't hate them, they're just whatever. Once I narrow down the board and isolate players I really want to own this year, as well as players I don't, you can almost immediately get a better feel for what's likely to happen for you in the draft. One of the fist things I look at are QBs and TEs, just because they're more straight forward. I'm fine with D.Brees at his price, I think Cousins is a value in the 9th, I'd have no issues getting Cam in the 10th, if I miss out on all 3, I still have options in Stafford/Dak/Eli based on which one presents the best value late, and no matter what happens Tyrod is an awesome fall back plan in my opinion. (4pt Passing League) This helps me 1: Have contingency plans for the QB throughout the entire draft, so that anytime a QB doesn't make it to me, I know who and where my next target is. 2: As alluded to earlier, how do you decide who BPA between Brees and Carlos Hyde in the 5th round? By knowing what your realistic alternate options are later. If I take Hyde, there are all of the QB targets I mentioned. If I take Brees, my RB alternatives aren't quite as attractive to me. So that's how I would personally decide between RB vs QB in that round if I were on the clock looking at those 2 players. The same applies to Dez or Gronk in the 2nd round. There's no way to really decide which one is the 'best player available' without taking into account of what is 'most likely' to happen later. On the TE front, Gronk in the 2nd is great for me. Graham in the 6th is a complete steal I think, Rudolph and Ebron are great values, and I think Reed and Ertz are fairly priced. As far as team composition and construction, that offers me multiple options throughout the entire draft, to confidently address the TE position without concern. On the inverse, when I look at the board for target WRs... my highlighted players stop at round 8 with B.Marsh. That tells me that my confidence in WRs dries up very quickly for the 2017 season, and that I would be better off leaning WR early over a TE like Gronk. One you get familiar with the 2017 landscape, and get a feel for who you're targeting, where you're targeting them, and the positions they play, you should already have an idea of what's most likely to happen, or who's most likely to end up on your team most often. When you have the option to select your own draft position, the goal is to put yourself in the spot, that gives you the highest chance of drafting the most 'target' players possible. In odd rounds you want to be to the left of your targets, and in the even rounds, to the right. Logically that's the highest likelihood to land your players. Therefor based on above in the 3rd, I need to be left of Miller's ADP, in the 5th, Left of Hyde/Landry, in the 7th, left of Ingram/AP, in the 9th left of Cousins. The even rounds... there's a few, but mostly it just looks like I'm SOL, unless I look at the 10th spot, and hope DT, B.Marsh, and Rudolph fall in all 3. Because of this, it was fairly obvious I wanted to be on the left side of the board this year, more specifically the first 4 spots. Knowing I had only 3 targets in the first round, I just quickly eliminated the 4 spot, and left it to the top 3 spots. Any of these spots should allow me a good (but not guaranteed) chance to land Miller, Hyde/Landry, AP/Ingram, and Cousins, combined with a first round pick of AB or DJ/Bell, combined with hopefully one of Dez or Gronk and if I'm really lucky, both of them. I would normally do a few mocks from 1,2 &3 just to verify. I also did one at 10, just to ensure it went as terribly as I planned (it did). Ultimately I decided to pick 2nd, as it put me in a position to get the players above, and the only real shot of getting Gronk AND Dez, even though extremely unlikely. This would result in a 'dream team' (within a Snake's limitations) of: 1: <Unknown> 2: Dez 3: Gronk 4: Hyde 5: Landry 6: AP 7: B.Marshall 8: <BPA> 9: Cousins If that's the core of my team, I can then use the assumed player's I'll own, to dictate which way I should go in the first round. With WRs like Dez/B.Marsh/Landry, I'd feel perfectly fine with those 3 guys as my starters. I can't necessarily say I feel the same, entering the year with Hyde and AP as my Rb1 and RB2. With that in mind, I'm leaning RB in the first round. Resulting in a team that would 'optimally' look like this from the 2 spot of a 10 team PPR league: QB: K.Cousins RB1: L.Bell RB2: C.Hyde WR1: Dez WR2: B.Marsh Flex: J.Landry TE: Gronk Granted, not everyone will like that team, that's why you use your own 'target players' not mine. You're probably more concerned with how to use this, if you don't get to pick your draft spot. The answer, is pretty much the same way. We already determined above that 10th is likely the worst spot for me given my target players, so let's say I get stuck with the 10 spot. I'd start at the bottom of the draft and work my way up. (150th pick, up to the 1st pick; 150:1) 12th: Forte 11th: J.Charles 10th: Cam 9th: Rudolph 8th: B.Marsh 7th: T.Riddick 6th: Fitzgerald 5th: J.Reed/J.Graham 4th: Lynch 3rd: DT From here, it's a similar line of thought. Without even having a 1st or 2nd round pick, just by selecting your favorite players through the rest of the draft, how does your team look, and what do you still need? With a WR core of DT/Fitz/B.Marsh, I again would feel just fine entering the season with those 3 guys as my starters. My RB core would be Lynch, Riddick, and Forte. Not as strong. Given this construction, I'd be very interested in starting the draft with 2 RBs at the 10/11 wrap. Let's use D.Murray and Ajayi for example, but obviously Zeke/Gordon/Howard are options for those who prefer them. QB: Cam RB1: D.Murray RB2: J.Ajayi WR1: D.Thomas WR2: L.Fitzgerald Flex: B.Marshall TE: J.Reed/J.Graham While I obviously prefer the first option, because it allows me more 'target players' on my team, I still think the second options is a good team. The main take away, is allowing the players you know you want, and are most likely to end up with later in the draft, dictate who you draft early, rather than the other way around. The Short Version: You're far more likely to have stronger opinions and gaps in player projections in the later rounds. Therefore how you draft in the first 3 rounds, should be dictated by your pre-determined tendencies in the mid rounds, instead of allowing the first 3 rounds, dictate what you do in the mid-late rounds. Assuming everything goes right, the difference between AJ Green and Melvin Gordon(1/2 wrap) (in regards to how they effect your team) is not going to be measurable. I'm not convinced the same can be said of Brandon Marshall and LaGarratte Blount. (8/9 wrap) Good Luck! #Inb4TheLynchMob
  7. If he had a 3 year track record of being a top 5 WR, and the back half of 2016 was just the 4th, not 1st time, he's paced those numbers... Yes. That's before we even discuss the fact that 42% of Theilen's fantasy points in that time frame, came from a single week. His 12/202/2 Week 16 is an obvious outlier. Especially considering he went 0/0/0 in week 15 and 1/7/0 in week 17.
  8. Through week 13, while Forte was 100% healthy, Powell averaged 7 touches a game. With the complete absence of an actual Wide Receiver or QB on this team, there's a chance that Forte and Powell can both be the top 2 pass catchers on this team this year. I'm all over Forte at his 11th round price tag in 12 team PPR leagues. I want nothing to do with Powell at his price.
  9. Seriously? ESPN is a company, which has multiple teams, some of which are dedicated to nothing but stats and analytics, whose sole purpose is creating this data for their Writers, such as Matthew Berry, and the numerous others ESPN employs. Literally, Berry's job is to take the information and data available to him, and put it into words, both written and spoken, for consumption. His job is to write, not to research. This is why teams exist in the first place. If the statisticians were good writers/speakers/hosts then they would just do it themselves. Unless he's pretending the stats are all his own, or trying to take credit for them, then I see nothing wrong with not mentioning it in every single article. Just because you enjoy gargling the words 'Future HOF QB' as a prefix for Eli Manning, doesn't mean it's enjoyable to read or hear, every other time you choke on the phrase. Next he'll need to include a works cited page, with his editor, his manager, his webpage producer, the camera man, the photographer, Walt Disney himself, so on and so forth. If Matthew Berry cited every single source (within his company) he used for an article, they would be twice as long as they already are, and would remove far more readability from his content. Not every stat in the world needs to be references, for it to be valuable. When I discuss targets, redzone looks, etc, no one cares or wants to know where the information came from, they just want the data, and to understand how it can benefit them. ASIDE from all of the above, Berry writes 3 major articles a year. Love/Hate, 100 Facts, and his Draft Day manifesto. I haven't read Love/hate yet, but both 100 Facts and the Draft Day Manifesto cited Kyle Soppe, and each had an additional thanks to "ESPN Fantasy Department" for one, and "ESPN Stats & Information" for the other. I don't listen to the podcast anymore, but 2 years ago when I did, I recall him regularly using the phrase, "Shout out to ESPN <whatever department name> for these numbers..." before or after he would discuss stat heavy analysis. Having said all that, I think no analyst should be taken at face value. You have to learn how to separate information from opinion. Nearly all analysts, and even multiple users on this forum, have valuable information to share with you. That does not mean they're opinion is automatically valuable to you, nor does finding their information helpful, or compelling, mean you should blindly accept their opinion. Dissect the information, formulate your own opinion, and make your own decisions. I am no exception to this rule. I offer a lot of information on this forum, but just because I present numbers in a compelling way, doesn't mean you should just accept what those numbers mean to me. Use that information, but determine what it means to you. You need to think for yourself. If I listen to Berry, it's because I understand the resources he has available to him, and how much information he can provide, that I don't always have access to myself. I do not listen to him, for his opinion, nor his advice. You can still benefit from his information though, as long as you can differentiate the two. Matthew Berry is a salesman, there's not really any more to it than that in my opinion. He's a very good salesman. He doesn't own nor build the car you're looking to buy, but he's the guy you go through to get it, because that's how business works. The salesman's opinion usually means very little, but he is the middle man, between you and the product you want to obtain. In Fantasy Football, the product we want to obtain is information, ESPN owns it, but Berry is the one (of many) who sells it. Hate him or love him, as joshua admitted, he's likely the biggest influence on the success of Fantasy Football for the past decade, and has been extremely successful at selling it. His job is to sell, your job is to make sure you don't get caught up in the pitch. If you ignore Berry, simply because you don't like him, you are only depriving yourself of the useful 'products' ESPN has to offer. You also have to consider... the people on this forum, are NOT Berry's/ESPN's target audience in the first place. If you are on this forum, you have to understand you are already in the minority of Fantasy Football Players.
  10. Last I checked, a tilde means something. ~100 Quoting yourself being wrong about Baldwin's TD floor in '16, as support for why we should believe you about his TD floor in '17, is a bold strategy. Interesting we don't see you quote yourself from the Jimmy Graham thread though. You know, where you said there were 20 TEs with more upside than Jimmy Graham. Yes, Wilson was hobbled last year, but Baldwin got the exact same Red Zone targets in 2016, as he did in 2015, 16. In fact, Baldwin actually had more targets inside 10 yards in 2016 (7), than he did in 2015 (5). Interestingly enough, even in 2014, Baldwin had 12 RZ targets, and again had more targets inside the 10 (6) than he did in 2015 when he had the outlier year. The real difference of note, is that Jimmy Graham went from only 8 red zone targets in 2015, to leading the team with 20 in 2016, despite only really being a significant part of the offense down the stretch. There's reason to believe Graham another year removed from the injury, another year with Wilson, a healthy Wilson, and starting 100% from week 1, that Graham dominates the red zone even more than he already did last year. The reality of the matter, is that Baldwin has been around a lot longer than just 2 years. In fact Baldwin is now entering his 7th season in the NFL. His previous TD totals are: 4, 3, 5, 3, 14, 7. No, Wilson hasn't always been there, and the Seahawks haven't passed nearly as much as they have since the demise of Beast Mode. But if you are truly an 'elite TD producer' then you produce TDs no matter the situation. As of today, Baldwins career best TD total is double his 2nd best season. That screams outlier. But he's obviously Wilson's favorite target across the entire field, has back to back top 10 seasons, and because he's shown he has the upside for 14 TDs in a season, will always have that potential upside, and possibility to do it again. I don't think 10 TDs is unreasonable for Baldwin, but it's hardly his floor. On topic... I'd rank those WRs Dez/Cooks/Hilton/Baldwin. I believe Dez is still an elite top 5 WR, (and unlike Baldwin actually IS an elite TD producer) so he's in a completely different tier for me. If Luck was healthy, I'd have Hilton #2, but with the expectation that Luck misses at least a few games, potentially 4-6, I have to drop Hilton down. Hilton in 2015 was still producing roughly 59/962 on 107 targets with 4.5 TD pace, in the games he played without Luck. So if you consider that the low end of his range, and then adjust for a worst case scenario of 9 games with Luck, then Hilton should still be a safe bet for another 80/1100 season. My concern is what if Luck's injury lingers, reoccurs, he's ineffective playing through it similar to 2015, or if Indy has a losing record, and just bench Luck to avoid risking his arm long term. Cooks and Baldwin are only separated by ~18 points (PPR) over the past 2 years (in Baldwins favor) but as mentioned above, I believe that's entirely TD based. Cooks is just entering his 3rd year, and has an upside that I don't think Baldwin possesses. Whether he reaches that potential before Edelman leaves NE is debateable, but I prefer the week to week manner in which Cooks scores his points to Baldwin. I think NE is an explosive offense, whereas SEA has given me the impression they want to get back to running the ball, granted not as much as the Lynch days. It's still going to be Wilson's offense in my opinion. Their Oline might not let them run the ball the way they want to, and Rawls/Lacy are no Lynch. For PPR, as of a week ago, I had Dez 5th, Cooks 8th, Hilton 9th, and Baldwin 12th.
  11. Every single word, spot freaking on, except one: "especially" should be "only". Stop it. Landry has finished 16th and 17th overall in standard leagues the past 2 years, and was drafted much later than those finishes both times. Currently the 26th WR off the board in standard, he is STILL a solid fantasy investment. Kenny Stills playing essentially the same role and outproducing him on fewer targets probably also plays a large part in it. I won't deny Parker's talent, ability, or upside, but realistically unless this offense drastically transforms with Cutler under center, or Stills leaves Miami or gets outright benched, Parker's upside seems rather capped. BUT... as the 39th WR off the board, I have zero issues with taking a swing on him. Cutler is a pretty big wrench thrown into my evaluation of this offense, so I'm not particularly confident in the offensive situation for fantasy purposes at all. Also, just food for thought, while everyone wants to use the narrative that Cutler loves his big WRs, (every QB does, don't they?) Parker has yet to show me he's even in the same stratosphere as Brandon Marshall. Even with that being the case, in regards to Landry, why are people so quick to forget how massively successful Matt Forte was in the short-passing game for Cutler? The same area of the field we assume Landry will be working. Forte received 130 targets from Cutler just 2 seasons ago. The same year Alshon garnered 145 targets himself for an 85/1133/10 season. B.Marsh got injured after 13 weeks, but still had 106 targets himself. I don't think Cutler is going to be the death of Landry, nor is Landry going to prevent Parker from success. Parker's success will depend on his own ability to stay on the field, both in regards to health and in regards to earning the right to play ahead of Stills. Whether that happens remains to be seen, but at his current price, I wouldn't fault anyone for taking that chance, but I'll pass. Currently being drafted in the middle of the 8th round, in 12 team PPR leagues.
  12. Within the fantasy season (weeks 1-16) Cooks had 3 games of 40 yards or less. Crabtree had 5 D.Adams had 5 D.Baldwin had 4 J.Jones had 4 Jordy had 4 AB had 2. I only checked the top 10 WRs and half of them had more such games than Cook did. I know you stipulated TDs, but predictability and such.
  13. That's the equivalent of pretending 'RB early' means drafting nothing late, simply because the entire draft strategy isn't outlined in the 2 word abbreviation. According to Siegele, the term was coined from the following philosophy: "The idea is to take [zero RBs] during the high value rounds, or the rounds where you can project players both with some degree of assurance and are going to be high scoring players." Zero RB, like RB early, or WR early, RB/RB, WR/WR, is obviously focused on a draft mentality for the early rounds, and completely disregards any implications of what you should do afterwards, at least when discussing the 'name' of the strategy. When you call 'waiting on QB' a draft strategy, does that mean you never draft a WR, TE, or RB, just because it's not included in the title of the strategy? No. The abbreviation of a strategy, is exactly what it sounds like... an abbreviation. Zero RB means investing in Zero RBs, within the rounds where you feel you can reasonably and accurately predict outcomes, or for as many rounds that you deem a high value. That's why there is no set or agreed upon amount of rounds to avoid the position. It's all within what you feel comfortable projecting, or ranking, or even just what you feel is a valuable pick. Some people think only the first 2 rounds carry heavy value, some the top 5, some would even argue 7, because of the 3wr/2rb/1qb/1te roster (or 2wr+1flex). It's open for interpretation and completely in your hands to decide. "There are two kinds of people in this world: those who can extrapolate from incomplete data"
  14. 52 yards a week, for 16 weeks is 832 rushing yards. Only 18 RBs had more rushing yards than that last year. AP is currently being drafted as the 27th RB off the board. 43 yards a week, for 16 weeks is 688 rushing yards. Only 24 RBs had more rushing yards than that last year. Ingram is currently being drafted as the 26th RB off the board. Last years RB totals for the NO Saints: 371 attempts = 23 a week 1680 rushing yards = 105 a week 127 receptions = 8 a week 884 r.yards = 55 a week 24 TDs = 1.5 a week Meaning this backfield averaged 33 PPR fantasy points per week last season. 25 in standard. That's without AP on the team. That's despite throwing the ball 673 times. And that was before Cook was traded away. At their current ADPs, given the potential this backfield had even before AP showed up, and the possible increase the running game could see... I think a strong argument can be made that both backs are easily worth an RB3 price on draft day. Especially when you consider one having an injury occur, and the subsequent upside the other will then possess.
  15. I hardly consider 584 yards a 'Mike Evans or OBJ-like impact' That's all Boldin could muster last year. Boldin, while possessing an impressive career, has only broken 1,000 yards twice in the last 7 years. He's no longer the receiver you remember. Golladay doesn't have to be better than Boldin in real life, to out produce him in fantasy, or even just to take his role, or match/beat his production. The sentiment was rather straight forward I felt. With the departure of Boldin, the Lions offense has a void in the offense that accounts for 95 targets, 67 receptions, 584 yards, and 8 TDs, and there is potential that Golladay can potentially fill that void, and maybe even expand on it. I don't know if I buy it based on what little I've seen, but the logic is sound. Basically, the Lions throw the ball 600 times a year, with 372 of them going to WR's. Tate has been rather consistent in his 3 years with the Lions, averaging right at 135. That leaves 237 to split between Jones, the #3 WR, and the field. Everyone is free to dissect that data as they wish, but there's even the potential that perhaps Galloday can move into the #2 role, rather than only seeing the field in 3 wide sets. I don't know if that's true, even if it is, it's going to be a transition. I'm not positive how I feel about M.Jones, he had an amazing first few weeks last year, but outside of those games, the entire rest of his career scream JAG to me. I think it's fair to also account that some of these targets above, could migrate to Ebron in his 3rd year. Maybe Ameer stays healthy, perhaps the Lions simply don't throw it 600 times again? There's definitely some unknowns and hurdles for KG to become fantasy relevant. I don't know much about him other than what I've read and watched the last few days. He stood out to me in the preseason game, not because of the TDs or yards, but because of the catches he made. I actually think they've gone understated in this thread. They made an impression on me, along with his body positioning and ball tracking. It's just one preseason game against some 2nd stringers though, so he's not sneaking onto anyone's fantasy teams quite yet, but he should definitely be on the radar. I know it's common thought, to assume Tate is the #1 of this offense, but I'm not entirely sure I buy that. Now, don't get me wrong, I am not predicting KG comes in and becomes the #1 WR for the team this year. But my point is that Tate is a 'real life' #2 WR. He's been the same guy for 3 years for them, whether he was the #1 to M.Jones, or the #2 to MegaTron. By using that logic, I think that means there is potential, the Lions are looking for a true #1 WR for their team. So it's a situation where I don't limit his (or even M.Jones) upside as 'the #2 WR of DET' because I don't think that's automatically the case, in the long wrong. More than likely it is the case for the '17 season, but it's an interesting discussion and outlook. Lastly... this is an odd trend, but a trend no less... Matt Stafford averages roughly 10 more passing TDs in odd numbered years than he does in even numbered years. This means essentially nothing, but when you look at his career it goes like this: 41 20 29 22 32 24 ?? 2011 is an obvious outlier, but the point is that he alternates years for his passing TD success. If the trend is to be believed, then he should throw roughly 34 TDs in 2017. He's averaged 34 in Odd years, 22 in Even years, using the past 6 seasons. With that +10 TD differential in mind, as well as the 8TD void of Boldin... It makes for an optimistic TD outlook for a guys like KG, and Ebron in my opinion. Despite how far fetched that theory/pattern is. I've placed him on my watch list, and will be paying a lot more attention in the weeks to come.