FFCollusion

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FFCollusion last won the day on December 13 2016

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  1. Thank you for accurate stats. 4.5 is the difference between owning Antonio Brown (#1) and Doug Baldwin (#9). Or the difference between owning a top 12 WR (Cooks 15.4) and WR 50 (Boldin 10.8). Hilton is very good, but Julio has been significantly better in fantasy to date. Julio's ?3rd? foot surgery, coaching changes, etc mean I probably won't own him unless dictated by the draft though.
  2. I think it's more important to discuss the roles each WR plays, and how a BM type WR effects said 'role' rather than 'name'. Honestly, everyone's first thought should have been Eric Decker, since that where B.Marsh went most recently. Decker 114/74/962/5 as the #1 WR of the Jets, Marshall came in and in '15 Decker went 132/80/1027/12. But... there was a QB factor there, so arguably moot. (Geno to Fitz) My issue with Jordy and Cobb, is that Cobb is a slot WR (IIRC, but I could be wrong on where he ran his routes from in '14, also whether he was moved in '15 due to Jordy's injury?) Slot WRs, in my opinion, do better with better WRs outside to draw attention, and create space in the middle. OBJ (again I don't have snap % from position) does not play the slot role, Shepard does I assume? So, Jordy to Cobb, is not the apples to apples comparison of Marshall to OBJ. Even in the Decker comparison, you could argue it doesn't apply because B.Marsh became the #1 and drew top coverage, that the reason Decker excelled is because of lesser coverage, just like he did with DT in DEN. The next logical step is... Alshon's success with B.Marsh around vs his... 'success' without him there. After that I would fall back to Julio and Roddy maybe? Did Allen Hurns play outside in '15, with Lee in the slot, when A.Rob went off? That might be a decent look, but there's nothing to compare against in '16 as they both still played, and it appears Bortles was the problem. D.Jax and WRs of his nature, are great at creating more space for everyone on the field, but Garcon did play outside, so that's fair. If I remember correctly, last year I proved that Antonio Brown was actually more productive per-game, when M.Bryant was on the field. I suppose you could argue Demaryius was most effective when Decker was around, but there's the Peyton wrench. Hilton just had a career year, coinciding with the downfall/absence of Moncrief. V.Jax and Mike Evans in 2014? Golden Tate was considerably more productive when Calvin Johnson was not on the field in '14, but then Calvin leaves for good and Tate fell back to earth, so perhaps that was simply a lack of preparation by defenses mid season. I'm rambling, so to form any semblance of usefulness, I'll say this. I think in the grand scheme of things, OBJ at years end, will be right on par with his past 2 seasons. I do think he takes a hit in total targets, loses a few catches, but I think his yardage should be fine. 150/90/1300/10 would be an extremely rough guess. BUT... my concern is that on a weekly basis, he will struggle. End of year stat totals are great, but we play a weekly game. I get the feeling there are going to be 'Marshall games' and 'OBJ games'. Whether dictated by the offense, or more likely the defense, I think on a week to week basis, OBJ is going to be more volatile than he has in the past, and that makes him less attractive to me in the weekly picture, even though at years end, I don't think the effect matters too much. TDs are the toughest thing to predict. B.Marsh could dominate in the endzone and come away with 14+. B.Marsh could demand extreme attention in the endzone, and leave OBJ wide open for 14+. Both are likely, and at years end, both will be fine. But week to week, it could be frustrating to have those potential ups and downs, entirely based on who the defense feels like trying to shut down. Not that I think either can be shut down, but I think when they give extra attention to one guy, Eli can just go to the other and not force the issue. Maybe defenses are so focused on these 2 guys, and Eli + his OC/HC are so determined for faced pace, quick throws, that Shepard becomes the 2017 Cole Beasley, eating 8 targets, 5 catches, and 60 yards, every single game, and even further dilutes the fantasy pool of this WR core. Tl;dr OBJ's stat totals shouldn't be largely effected, but his week-to-week consistency could be in danger, making him unattractive as a top 5 pick. 4th-6th among WRs, 8th-12th overall for me. In a snake, it'll be a simple choice based on draft position, WR vs RB and your positional/draft philosophy, or simply deciding between AJG/OBJ/Dez, in which I don't think there's a wrong answer. In auction... he'll draw a higher price tag than he likely should, and probably won't be on any of my teams.
  3. So... it happened week 14? He played Week 15 and threw 300 yards. He played Week 16 and threw the ball 43 times. He played Week 17... All with it torn. Now, they're going to surgically repair it... and I'm suppose to worry he won't be able to play through it? Currently the 6th QB off the board, behind the obvious 3, Luck and Ryan. Ryan is a DND for me. Cam will likely fall a round or 2 due to this news, missing OTA, hopefully he misses pre-season too, because I love bargains. Ben, Wilson, Prescott, Carr are the next 4 QBs off the board. I'd rather have Cam for 12 weeks than any of those guys for 16 I think. I have no issue streaming for a few weeks if the price on Cam is right, even if we pretend he doesn't play week 1. Yes it's an added risk, but his price will likely have that already factored in, so it's a moot point. Cam has always had an inherent risk attached to him, at least this time we know. A nice opportunity for a bounce back season, QB is the easiest position to replace if worse comes to worst, and by the time I draft, we should know exactly what the situation is. As of right now, it's a non issue, until something happens that makes me think otherwise.
  4. Just to clarify, I am not a Zero RB proponent as a draft strategy. I do agree with it as a mentality for ranking players, but that's mainly due to my risk aversion. I should have my ROI thread out this week, for draft day returns on player vs round investments. In an attempt to stay on topic, Howard is a 1 year wonder (until proven otherwise) that won't be on any of my teams, not because he isn't good, not because what he did last year wasn't impressive, but because I do not invest 1st round picks, on unknown variables. I did the same to Gurley last year, it worked. Did the same thing to David Johnson last year, and was wrong. Missing DJ didn't ruin my fantasy season, but I'm willing to bet the majority of people who drafted Gurley would say he did ruin theirs. I'll gladly miss out on 1 DJ a year, if it means avoiding 5+ Gurley's a year. I believe that if I just 'don't completely whiff' in the first 2 rounds, than I can make up any distance lost with some good mid round investments, late round gambles, and solid in-season management. Just my outlook on the game, and it's simply 1 of a million. From a statistical standpoint... Howard's first 2 weeks I'd throw away. I'd begin with Week 4 and onward, in which he looks damn impressive. His catch rate is 49 out of 50 RBs, absolutely atrocious with 58%. D.Willy was 48th with 67%. J.Stew 50th with 38%. 7 games over 100 yards rushing... only 2 games with less than 80 yards rushing... Half his TDs came in a single game. He only had 6 to begin with. Lost his QB (was only there half the time). Lost his #1 WR (arguably never there) 5.2 YPC will be difficult to repeat, but given he only really played ~13 games, more carries, at less YPC would still put him on pace for a solid year. Just way to many unknowns for me personally, I'd have to dedicate some time to watching his tape, but in the first round he's not even on my radar. Maybe in the 2nd, we start comparing Ajayi/Miller/Gurley/Hyde, and I understand the temptation there, that's probably the right tier anyways, which is 9~13 range for RBs I think? 2nd round scattered ADPs. Anywho, carry on.
  5. It's impossible to have a fantasy discussion, rankings, or even thought, without last year being involved, that's ridiculous. It's not about drafting last years stats, it's about putting those stats into perspective in terms for Baldwin, in attempt to adjust his value relative to the stats that can be had from alternate options, at much lower costs. I'll repeat my statement... Baldwin will likely outscore over half these guys at years end, if not all... by will it be by enough to justify the 2-8 round price difference? THAT is the question I'm proposing. Opportunity cost. Not whether Baldwin is good, or will score more. Will he score enough to justify paying a 3rd round price? When you're in a H2H matchup with the guy who drafted Landry/DT/Crab/Fitz/Tate/Pryor/Sanders... tell me... how confident are you that Baldwin will outscore them in that single week? Because to me, the answer is zero. At years end, sure Baldwin might be higher in the total stats, but when I play against Baldwin, I'm never afraid. He's just as likely to 3 for 20 day (week 2) as he is 8 for 164 (week 3). What I see is a guy not worth starting 40% of the time, but also with the potential to blow up any week. I'm not paying a 3rd round price for a guy with the same week to week potential as Mike Wallace. This is a week to week game, not a year end point total game. Speaking of week to week, I'd love to see you attempt to prove that Baldwin is more consistent than Landry. Baldwin has higher highs, lower lows, less games with X catches, less 100 yard games, less games over 60 yards, lowest yardage games, same games under 10points. Like I already stated, 49% of Baldwins fantasy production came in 4 games. Landry's best 4 games account for 36% of his total output. Baldwin is far more guilty of inconsistency than anyone other than M.Wallace tested so far, and even he only had 1 more bust game than Baldwin. Going back to the 21/14/11 for top 12/24/36/bust Baldwin was at 4/3/2/6 STDev 9.4 Landry was at 2/4/5/4 STDev 6.2 TDs? Lol, because Landry's 4, are such a far cry from the massive 7 Baldwin put up last year? Landry isn't a TD guy by any means, I get that, his ceiling is lower than Baldwins, no argument here, but he doesn't need them. Hell even with Baldwins 14TD season, the difference in fantasy points between Landry and Baldwin over the last 2 years is 16 points. Sixteen. Baldwin hasn't beaten him in receptions, or yards, in either of the 2 seasons they've been fantasy relevant. Demaryius has terrible hands? Of the top 50 WRs last year, he ranked 24th in catch rate, nothing impressive. But ahead of Adams, Edelman, OBJ, Hilton, Evans, Dez, Hopkins, A.Rob, B.Marsh. Tate was pretty bad on a week to week basis, you're right. Going back to the 21/14/11 for top 12/24/36/bust Baldwin was at 4/3/2/6 STDev 9.4 Tate was at 3/2/5/5 STDev 8.9 Tate still had fewer bust games than Baldwin did. If you use 6 points as your threshold it changes things, but... arbitrary numbers and such. Baldwin is a solid player, who puts up solid stat lines, albeit in inconsistent week to week fashion. But we live in an age, where a 'solid stat line' is no longer special in the game we play. That's not to take away from Baldwin at a real football level, but in the fake football level. He scored 15.6 Points per Game last year. 6 WRs were within a single point of him on a weekly basis. 14 WRs were within 2 points of him on a weekly basis. 23 WRs had over 1000 yards last year. 18 WRs had 7 or more TDs last year. But in the 3rd round... tell me why the PPG advantage Baldwin might give you to the 4-8th round WR, is a safer bet than your #1 QB and the same PPG advantages he offers? Tell me how confident in your PPG advantage to 5-6th round WRs, vs Gronks PPG advantage to 5-6th round TEs on any given week? Currently drafted only 3 spots away from each other. It's the same logic we've applied to TEs and QBs for years. If you don't get the 'top tier' guys, just wait, there's not much point to investing in the middle class. The difference between QB6 and 16 isn't worth the 6th round vs 16th round. The difference between TE6 and TE16 isn't worth the same draft cost. What I'm proposing, is even if we view Baldwin as a WR10~12... is the difference between WR 20~24 worth the late 2nd, early 3rd round investment, vs the mid/late 5th? Baldwin is good. I'll probably have him ranked somewhere between WR10 and 15. But he'll be in a tier that likely includes players drafted a full round, if not 2, lower than him, which realistically makes him a DND for me, despite ranking him as a possible WR1. That's just a good example of why rankings only mean so much, and why they can't be blindly followed on draft day. For me, it's all about opportunity cost. Not that Baldwin can't be a top 12 WR again, just that the price point doesn't make sense for what I expect his production to be. 85/1100/8-10 sounds like a solid projection for Baldwin. I'd rather get 8 games from Hyde/Ingram/CJA at the same price of Baldwin, grab Fitzgerald in the 5th, rather than have Baldwin and Lacy/Dougie/Coleman/Powell in the corresponding rounds. That's a draft day mentality, not a ranking or projection mentality, and I can't stress it enough, that this (opportunity cost) is what ultimately dictates my draft day investments. Not how good Baldwin is/can be, not where he'll finish end of season, not where I'll have him ranked pre-season. Just the reality of the fact, at his expected price, he won't be on a single team of mine. With this, I'll be on my way out of the Baldwin thread. Sorry for the Hatorade.
  6. ... I thought I just did? Maybe this format will help. Baldwin just had a nice 94/1128 year. Currently being drafted 25th overall, or the first pick of the 3rd round. Landry can be had 36th, the last pick of the 3rd round, coming off of 94/1138 year. Demaryius can be had 46th overall, end of the 4th, coming off of 90/1083. Crabtree can be had in the 5th(52), 89/1003 Fitzgerald can be had in the 5th(54), 108/1028 Golden Tate can be had in the 5th(58), 91/1077 T.Pryor can be had in the 6th(63), 77/1007 E.Sanders can be had in the 6th(71), 79/1032 You mentioned M.Bryant, 7th round pick, I agree there. M.Wallace and D.Jax are both coming of 1,000 yard seasons, can be had in the 12th and 8th round respectively. Maclin and Decker are #1 WRs on their team, a year removed from top 15 finishes, 7th and 9th round. Garcon is coming off of a 79/1041 year, and headed to be the #1 WR on a new team, 14th round. B.Marsh is gunna go play against #2 corners all year with Eli, 5th round. Hell Willie Snead put up 72/900 with 2 top 12 WRs ahead of him on his own team, now with Cooks gone? 11th round. How far down the draft board do we need to go to make the point? At years end Baldwin will be better than over half these guys most likely, but will he be 2-8 rounds better? Remember we're talking about opportunity cost here. Draft day price and Return on Investment. Baldwin in the 3rd + Gore in the 7th vs Ingram in the 3rd and Sanders in the 7th. That's a real world question you have to ask yourself right now... which combo means more points in your H2H matchups, because THAT is what wins games. And here's the kicker... half of this forum will want the Baldwin/Gore combo. Half will want the Ingram/Sanders combo. There is no right or wrong answer, until the season is over. Right now it's entirely opinion, I'm simply sharing mine. Not telling you yours is wrong, just why i disagree with yours, or prefer an alternate option. Baldwin is a guy who had 49% of his fantasy production, in 4 games last year. Sure that looks great on the 'year end' results, and he likely gave you 4 wins with those games, which is very valuable. To me, there are plenty of guys who blow up 4 times a year, and are below average the other 75% of the time. That's not a player that interests me, at least not at his current price tag. Which is the entire point I'm hinging my argument on. His price doesn't match his production, and I don't personally see the 'ceiling' that others believe he has. I could very well be wrong. I'm not here to tell you Baldwin sucks. I'm here to tell you that Baldwin and Fitzgerald were separated by 2.1 points last year, but are separated by 2.1 rounds this year.
  7. Where have I heard this before? Oh yeah, last year.
  8. It's always about what's convenient for you. Look, if you want to project an increase in Baldwins production for 2017, because Wilson should be healthy, the offense should be better, etc etc... I have no issue with that, that's logical. Thus far, though, you've going on and on about how good Baldwin was in 2015 and 2016, I'm showing why I don't think his 2016 was impressive at all, (plus believe his '15 was buoyed by TDs) and your counter is 'but but but Wilson was hurt'. That's fine, Baldwin can get better, but Baldwin was no different than a middling WR2 in 2016, in what was already a really bad year for WRs. So forgive me if I'm just not impressed with his 'year end' results like you are. I'm sure you'll have some witty comment about me 'missing' on Baldwin last year, but I didn't miss anything. I got Doug Baldwin production from my 16th round pick. Pryor had just as many weeks above the top 24 cutoff as Baldwin did. Which is the point, Baldwins production, while solid, while good, isn't special. It's about draft capitol and opportunity cost. Why is Baldwin in the 3rd, more valuable to your team than Landry or Demaryius in the 4th? Why is Baldwin in the 3rd more valuable to your team than B.Marsh or L.Fitz in the 5th? T.Pryor or E.Sanders in the 6th? If you want to talk about the potential benefits Baldwin could have that will increase his worth in 2017, you're not going to get any arguments from me. If you want to talk about how amazing Baldwin was in 2015 and 2016, then I'm going to point out why I personally disagree. But you don't get to bounce back and forth between these 2 arguments when it fits your narrative. The point isn't that Tyrell should be drafted ahead of Baldwin, it was simply to show that Baldwin was indistinguishable from a middling WR2 last year, when you compare their weekly effects on your team. Baldwin, in a year that was BAD for WRs... had as many good weeks as Tyrell, or Pryor. I'm not claiming Pryor or Tyrell deserve to be drafted where Baldwin is, the point I'm trying to make, is why would you pay so highly for Baldwin, given the small differences between his production on a weekly basis, to these other names? Even if we chalk Baldwin up for an 85/1100/8 season... In '16 that would have been 11th overall. In '15 that would have been 15th overall. Solid production. But nowhere near elite. joshua is telling you, there are only 4 WRs in the game 'clearly better' than Baldwin right now. Hell, M.Thomas in his rookie year, on 1 less game, just out produced the 2nd best year of Baldwin's entire career, and I'm suppose to think Baldwin is special? Uhhh, no. You can claim Wilson's health will impact Baldwin, sure. But was Wilson not healthy in 2015 when Baldwin went 78/1069? Or am I suppose to chase TDs? I think Baldwin is who he has been. 85/1100/8 is very reasonable, and solid WR2 at season's end, mid to low WR2 on a weekly basis. It's just not worth a 3rd round pick to me. He'll likely drop to the 4th and be 'fair' value there, but still of no interest to me. There's just too many WRs that can be had after Baldwin, that I think have just as much opportunity to reach my projected stats for Baldwin. Maybe my projection is just completely wrong, maybe yours/josh's is just much higher. Nothing wrong with that, that's why we play the game. I'm higher on Baldwin's potential this year than I was last year, because A: He's done it more than once B: I believed in Jimmy Graham last year, and even though he came through, it didn't hinder Baldwin C: I was/am a huge Lockett fan, but he doesn't appear to be stepping up (yet) and the Seahawks don't appear committed to getting him involved. Baldwin is solid, just not exciting. He doesn't appeal to me as the upside type of player with top 5 potential. His catch rate is impressively high, but I prefer to chase targets. Baldwin was 19th among WRs for targets last year. 1100 is a solid receiving line, but we're playing a game in which 23 WRs broke 1,000 yards in '16, and 22 did it in '15. I tend to align with @predator_05 above, I think SEA is going to try and get back to their run game. I think a healthy Wilson means more Wilson runs, not more Wilson throws. Wilson has consistently increased his attempts and p.yards each year, and I do believe in that trend, to a point. '16 was a larger jump than I expected, and I think the run game (or lack thereof) is part of that reason, which we might be seeing a slight fall, or perhaps a plateau. His TDs should go up, which should benefit Baldwin and Graham. Standard deviation is an odd stat I'm not sure has much application to fantasy football. Baldwin's STDEV is higher because his highs are higher, and his lows are lower, therefore his range of outcomes is larger. Statistically, this would mean he's less consistent. In fantasy football, higher STDEVs usually come with game winning weeks, and that's a good thing, not a bad thing.
  9. Those of us in this current conversation already knows how I've obtained the numbers below, so I won't bother going into the math here. Threshold for a Top 12 PPR finish on any given week: ~21 Threshold for a Top 24 PPR finish on any given week: ~14 Threshold for a Top 36 PPR finish on any given week: ~11 By this measure, Baldwin was top 12, four times last year. (26%) By this measure, Baldwin was top 24, three times last year. (20%) By this measure, Baldwin was top 36, two times last year. (13%) By this measure, Baldwin was 37th or worse, six times last year. (40%) Standard Deviation of 9.4 Cooks is the name mentioned above, finished 11th overall, and is what multiple people call 'too boom or bust' By this measure, Cooks was top 12, three times last year. (20%) By this measure, Cooks was top 24, five times last year. (33%) By this measure, Cooks was top 36, four times last year. (26%) By this measure, Cooks was 37th or worse, three times last year. (20%) Standard Deviation of 10.5 Dead center of WR2 would be 18th overall, which is... Tyrell Williams? By this measure, Williams was top 12, four times last year. (26%) By this measure, Williams was top 24, three times last year. (20%) By this measure, Williams was top 36, two times last year. (13%) By this measure, Williams was 37th or worse, six times last year. (40%) Standard Deviation of 6.8 Last WR2 would be 24th overall, which is... Mike Wallace. Top 12, two times last year. (13%) Top 24, two times last year. (13%) Top 36, four times last year. (26%) 37th or worse, seven times last year. (47%) Standard Deviation of 5.5 Antonio is the #1 WR in the game. Top 12, eight times last year. (53%) Top 24, three times last year. (20%) Top 36, one time last year. (6%) 37th or worse, three times last year. (20%) Standard Deviation of 8.7 Baldwin is currently drafted as the 11th WR off the board, 25th overall. I'll pass.
  10. Before we get started, let me clarify, that I don't care. This isn't even a discussion worth having. If people want to take a swing for Bortles as a backup QB, the first guy they stream for week 1, a bye week filler, whatever... go for it. He should have a slight bounce back season, and he's going to be viable at times during the season. With that out of the way... what value is there to be had, by drafting a QB who doesn't deserve to be drafted? Current ADP is useless, I get it, but we need something to even start this conversation. He's currently being drafted 21st among QBs. Let's start with the obvious choices, I assume everyone agrees with. Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Luck, Cam, Ryan, Ben (7) Names I think are still obvious, but <opinions> Dak, Carr, Cousins, Stafford, Mariota, Wilson (6) We're up to 13... meaning in most 10-12 team leagues, there shouldn't even be another QB drafted, but... we know people will, so whatever. Rivers, Eli, Winston, Tyrod. Some would put Bortles in that tier, I'm not one of them, but I wouldn't argue with you. We're now talking about the 14th-18th QBs off the board. Even in the 15th round... there is no value is getting anyone from this 'tier'... because more than likely at least one of these guys will be a FA/WW QB after the draft. That's how tiers work, there's no value paying anything for Bortles, if Rivers is a FA. At that point, you're literally wasting a roster spot, for a player whose level of quality can be had for free. Dalton, Palmer, Romo (regardless of where he signs, I'd still prefer him to Bortles), I think that's as far as I can drop Bortles. Kaep is probably worth a mention, when discussing QB2s, I'm of the mindset of I want all or nothing. Owning 2 QBs of equal production is useless, but the potential of Kaep, when able to ignore his risk/floor, is far more intriguing on draft day than the possibility Bortles returns to 'low end QB1' production. Wentz with Torrey, Matthews, Alshon, and Ertz has some nice ceiling/floor considerations that make him more attractive to me. Flacco, Tannenhill, A.Smith are all an easy pass. There's probably going to be a rookie or 2 more interesting. Anywho, all of that to say... where is the value in drafting QB20, with the expectation he might produce like QB12? I'd rather reach for a DEF or K I like than roster a 2nd QB in those rounds. I'd rather my 16th pick of Terrelle Pryor last year, to a bench QB. I'm just not sure I understand what you mean by 'value'. There's no value in grabbing a WR who finishes 40th, even if you get them at pick 140. They'll never see your lineup, no one wants them, you can't trade them, you're afraid to drop them, they literally rot on your roster, blocking you from a potential season changing lotto ticket, backup RB, or handcuff. I just don't see it. Bortles isn't as bad as he was in 2016, but I'm confident he isn't as good as he was in 2015. In '17 he should be somewhere in the middle, which... isn't good enough to peak my interest mid-year, and sure as hell isn't good enough to justify a draft pick.
  11. I just told you how useless year end stats are, and your rebuttal is that Bortles was a top 10 QB at years end. Blake Bortles outscored Tom Brady last year. Raise your hand if you would have rather owned Blake Bortles. *crickets* Tom Brady, Colin Kaepernick, Tyrod Taylor, Ben Roethlisberger, Marcus Mariota, Cam Newton, and Derek Carr. 7 QBs, who finished the year lower than Blake Bortles, but outscored him on a weekly basis. If you play in a total points league, then by all means, gobble up your boy Bortles. For those of us who play in H2H weekly games... WEEKLY points are what win you games. In PPG, Bortles was 16th for 2016. 15 QBs were better than him for the game I play. I urge you to also account for how bad 2016 was for QBs on the whole. Blake Bortles' 274 fantasy points in 2016 would have been 17th overall in 2015. His 17.1 Points Per Game... would have ranked 23rd in 2015. (Tied with Alex Smith and Blaine Gabbert) His 274 points in 2016, would have only been 14th overall in 2014. His 17.1 Points Per Game... would have ranked 17th in 2015. (Just above Mark Sanchez) Do not fall for an outlier two years in a row. The scoring above is all Yahoo Default; 25:1, 4pt TD, -1INT The below is CBS default scoring: 25:1, 6pt TD, -2INT Bortles finished 14th overall with 304 fantasy points, 19.0 Points Per Game. 17 QBs had a better PPG average in 2016. His 304 fantasy points, would have resulted in 17th overall in 2015, his 19.0 PPG would have placed him 23rd, tied with Josh McCown. His 304 fantasy points, would have resulted in 15th overall in 2014, his 19.0 PPG would have placed him 17th, just ahead of Mark Sanchez.
  12. Just using current ADP from FFC. Things will drastically change as we approach the season, but for the time being this is what the landscape looks like. 12 team PPR draftboard: I'm trying to get a rough ranking list in order, at a quick glance, Murray won't be top 24 for me. Assume at least 24 WRs, 5 TEs, and 5 QBs... that's 58 picks minimum. So... 6th round is probably best case scenario for him. Be my guest, but I'm not in the business of drafting middling RB3s that I never want to start. Maybe I'm just flat out wrong about Murray, or his potential success in MIN. I avoided him last year, and despite still looking like trash to me, he finished 12th overall on the back of 12 TDs. I can't see the future, but I believe my eyes when I see a guy I believe has been a career under achiever. Under achievers in the right situations can defy the odds, but they're still bad bets to make in my opinion, depending on draft day cost of course.
  13. I love this move from a fantasy perspective. Now a good RB can go to Oak and actually be productive! L.Murray was a DND last year despite the OAK line. Now with the MIN line, good riddance. Still a starting RB on an NFL team, so if I'm being realistic... he should fall in the late 7th, mid 8th of a 12 team PPR league, based on the names I'm seeing there currently. (Crow, J.Stew, Dixon)
  14. I want to make sure I understand your analogy here. In your opinion, M.Wheaton, S.Coates, Eli Rogers, or Darius Heyward-Bey are more talented than M.Thomas, W.Snead, Brandon Coleman, and J.James is more talented than C.Fleener? Is that what I'm to understand when you say that Big Ben has more reason to spread the ball than Brees? Bell is clearly better than Ingram, although he had 94 targets but dominates his teams RB snaps, whereas Ingram/Hightower/Cadet split theirs for 138 targets to RBs, another 20 to Kuhn. To be fair, Bell missed 3 games, so lets add in the 27 D.Willy got, for a total of 121. You're also claiming that Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are similar in talent? Devante Adams and Jordy Nelson? Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall? Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders? *Let me clarify I'm not claiming Cooks is insanely special, I just find your claim that Ben has less reason to forcefeed AB than Brees does Cooks... questionable. Ignoring defensive attention when comparing 'production' also seems like a huge mistake, but... @96mnc has already responded in that regard, so I'll leave it be.
  15. It doesn't matter. @jmausen is just rambling on about nonsense that no one ever argued. @boltup15 made a very simple claim. The difference between Jeremy Hill and Isaiah Crowell is that Crowell can catch. An entire page of jmausen spewing garbage hasn't even begun to dispute boltup's claim. Why Crowell caught the ball, when he caught it, what down it was, the presence of Duke Johnson, and if it will be repeated in 2017 has absolutely no merit on whether or not he's a better pass catcher than J.Hill. It blows my mind that people think they can alter an entire statement, and waste an entire page of bandwidth, arguing over something that was completely fabricated by themselves. This guy is going to make it to my ignore list faster than Acts Elf or psychogolf, and that's really saying something. The only reason he isn't already there, is because it seems like he's actually trying, but God, he's just really bad at it.