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FFCollusion last won the day on December 13 2016

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  1. Cam Newton 2018 Season Outlook

    Most likely will be my #2 ranked QB this year, behind Rodgers, but opportunity cost of the field makes it hard to invest early. 7th round is good value relative to alternate positions, but given the names behind him for cheaper, there are likely better values to be had at his own position. Having said that, I feel like all QB's jump about a full round by the majority of draft days. Initial ADP data always ranks them low, but their ADPs slowly creep as we approach the season.
  2. Brandon Marshall 2018 Season Outlook

    I'll say I agree with you, that it's more likely he's cut than score's 10 TDs, but your point is moot. Being the #2 WR on the Seahawks means nothing, when last year the #2 pass catcher on the Seahawks caught 10 TDs. You don't have to have blistering speed, or run razor sharp routes to stand in the endzone and utilize your body. Even if we all agree Marshall can't run as fast, or precise as he could 3 years ago, I don't think he forgot how to utilize his size in a jump ball scenario. No matter how many years in a row people want to pretend Doug Baldwin is a double digit TD guy, it's still not true. The main issue, is that Wilson is unlikely to repeat career high TD passes, so the pie will be smaller to begin with. But the reality of the situation is that the Seattle offense has a 10 TD void left by Jimmy Graham, so unless you guys want to explain to me why Ed Dickson (6 TDs in the last 6 years COMBINED) is the expected beneficiary, or why you expect Tanner McElvoy (14 career receptions) or Tyler Lockett (5'10 182lbs) are suddenly going to reach double Digits this year, then you'll be hard pressed to tell me anyone BUT the 6'5 232 WR they just signed, isn't at least equally as, if not the most, likely to lead the receiving core in TDs this year. More than likely it all falls on Wilson anyways. When he throws 20, 21 or 24 TD passes, then no one is going to break double digits. But if he can manage 30+ again, then we start looking at reasonable splits across the 4 names listed above trying to split 28~32 TD passes. If we assume he makes the team, and is 100% (whatever that means these days) how are you splitting ~30 TDs where his name doesn't come up 7-10 times? If your argument is he doesn't make the team... I get it. No argument. If your argument is he doesn't play 16 games... I get it. No argument. But IF he's healthy, on the team, and on the field... Then show me a logical, reasonable breakdown, where Marshall doesn't come up with a respectable amount of TDs. I'm not saying he's going to catch 100 balls, or break 1,000 yards. I'm just saying, is 60/800/10 out of the question? As for Double Digit TDs in a year, I can't emphasize this enough, 2017 was a complete collapse of the WR position and that's despite me emphasizing last year, that 2016 was ALREADY an outlier in how 'bad' the WR position was. In 2017 2 WRs broke 10 TDs. In 2016 5WRs broke 10 TDs. In 2015 10WRs broke 10 TDs. In 2014 11 WRs broke 10 TDs. Last year is not the norm, it's the outlier. HOWEVER... I've gone over this in depth in other threads, this has to do with the natural wave of generational talents entering and exiting the NFL. A huge group of RB mainstays faded out (Lynch, AP, Foster, Rice, Charles, Forte), and 'Zero WR' rose to fame. Over the last 3-4 years, the exact opposite is occurring, the WR studs of yesteryear are fading into existence (Tron, Marshall, Andre, Jax, Demaryius, Dez etc) and now the young stud RBs have established their names, with no WRs really stepping up to take the mantle for the previous generation yet.
  3. Brandon Marshall 2018 Season Outlook

    I understand and don't even disagree with a lot of the skepticism about B.Marsh at this point in his career, BUT... If he can simply match what Jimmy Graham was able to do last year, he would have been be a top 30 WR in 2017. 95 targets, 57 receptions, 520 yards, 10 TDs, 169 fantasy points. (PPR) (Disclaimer, last year was a $#!+ show for WRs, for example the same 169 points would not have even been a top 40 WR in '16) This is by no means anything special, stellar, or worth writing home about, but considering B.Marshall in has last full season (well, 15 games) in 2016 just put up 60/787, I don't think it's farfetched to assume he has a reasonable range of outcomes from 50-80 catches, 600-100 yards, and 7-10 TDs. At his likely price of..... ~10th round in 12 team PPR leagues? While unlikely, his 2015 season is still well within the reasonable time frame of fantasy football consideration where he posted 109/1502/14 can be considered the 'upside', and at his price, we don't even care about his floor.
  4. 2018 Rotoworld Mock Real League

  5. Lamar Miller 2018 Season Outlook

    We're having a major disconnect. I've checked every reasonable scoring method and I can't fathom how you're coming up with these numbers. So, before we go any further, please show me what math you're using, that results in Lamar Miller averaging 14PPG (With Watson) and Ingram only averaging 15.5. We'll go from there.
  6. Lamar Miller 2018 Season Outlook

    Timeshare... another meaningless word in the fantasy world. 288 touches last year in a 'time share'. Why should anyone care what you label the backfield? You tried to play that same 'suspension theory' against me in the Le'Veon Bell thread in 2015. After a 2 week suspension, first week back... 132 yards 26.2 fantasy points. Then you tried it again in 2016, after a 3 week suspension, first week back... 188 yards, 22.8 fantasy points. Zeke's first week back after his suspension last year? 118 yards. Do you have any data to back up your thesis on high end RBs returning after suspensions to significantly lower stat lines?
  7. Terrelle Pryor 2018 Outlook

    While true, it's important to consider the context. This time last year, the forum was flooded with how amazing Jamison Crowder was going to be. Josh Doctson was going to be the next best thing since sliced bread! They all sucked. Kirk Cousins was a top 5 QB who didn't have a single fantasy relevant WR last year. Hell outside of Cousins, the only fantasy relevant player that entire team produced was Chris Thompson in PPR leagues for a few weeks. Maybe Reed before he inevitably got injured again. Point being, yes Pryor sucked and is to blame. But let's not pretend he was thrown into an amazing situation and blew it. Sure, we all thought it was an amazing situation coming into the year, but looking back, we can all admit WSH was trash and likely no WR was going to have success in that offense. The Jets aren't a good situation either, difference is this year Pryor will be 12 rounds cheaper. Terrelle Pyror calling my name in the 12th round like:
  8. Lamar Miller 2018 Season Outlook

    That's not how we play the game. It's a simple question: Player A scores 18 PPG for 12 games. (216) Player B scores 14 PPG for 16 games. (224) Which one is more valuable to your team? Player A every time for me. If you prefer B, that's your choice, you're entitled to it. I'll take Ingram over Miller. I like Miller over Coleman, Guice, and Lewis easily. I like Hyde more as a player, but... it's the Browns. I might tier them together, but pre-season usage will be all that matters for Hyde's ranking. Penny and Michel are interesting, and would be completely dependent on what RBs I came out of the first 4 rounds with. If I needed a reliable RB2 I can depend on I'd take Miller without hesitation over the rookies. If I have 2+ RBs I really like, I'm not looking for 'reliable' for my RB3, I'd rather shoot for the moon and take a gamble on a rookie. Sony > Penny. If I had to rank them today: Ingram Miller Hyde Sony Penny Lewis Coleman Guice That doesn't mean anything in fantasy football. Case in point, Dion Lewis outscored Lamar Miller last year. What good does playing 3 downs do for fantasy, if you get outscored by someone who only plays 1 or 2 down(s)? Kamara and McCaffrey aren't 3 down backs, didn't stop them from out scoring 90%+ of the field last year. 3 down back, bellcow, workhorse... all meaningless terms that have no quantifiable correlation with fantasy points. Jordan Howard was a 3 down back workhorse last year with 299 touches in the 2017 season, and was outscored by Duke Johnson with only 156 touches.
  9. C.J. Anderson 2018 Season Outlook

    Then by your definition CMC's 117 carries is also 'not splitting work' and your entire argument against CJA is now void.
  10. C.J. Anderson 2018 Season Outlook

    This is too short sighted. J.Stew only played 15 games last year. (198 carries) He would have passed 200 carries despite Cam having 139 carries and despite splitting with CMC. In 2015, again, J.Stew only played 13 games, so he was actually on pace for 298. 2016, again, J.Stew only played 13 games, so he was actually on pace for 268. Even in 2014, he was on Pace for 216. Granted CMC wasn't there, but we can go back even further, because it seems you forgot D.Willy who had 201 carries in 2013 splitting with Tolbert. So basically, for 4 years running CAR has produced a back who would have eclipsed 200 carries, despite Cam's average of 116 carries in that time frame. I think 225 carries is slightly high, he's more likely to get 225 total touches, if he can play 16 games. It's not easy to predict given the potential changes to the CAR offense this year, as well as trying to comprehend their thoughts on how they plan to use CMC moving forward. I'm not familiar enough to know if they want to increase his workload, keep it the same, shift it to more run focused, etc. Time will tell. CJA should be a slightly more productive of CJA (in regards to fantasy), that I doubt has too much effect on CMC for our game.
  11. C.J. Anderson 2018 Season Outlook

    Seems like an odd take on this, but in your defense I think it's dependent on what your baseline is. If your baseline is what 'could have been' I get it. On the other hand if your baseline is what CJA just did last year (18th overall) then, I think this is a... sideways move for him. The TD argument would be moot, because J.Stew had twice the rushing TDs as CJA last year. These two were only separated by 2.5 fantasy points per game last year, which matters, but is a reminder of why the RB position is so devalued after the top ~9 or so. 2.5PPG is the difference between finishing 18th or 42nd and I'm talking PPR, which makes it even worse. If CJA can average a career low 4YPC, on the same ~200 touches as J.Stew, he'd be top 20 in rushing yards. 6 Rushing TDs puts you in the top 14 for that stat. I agree he won't get the targets, or usage to threaten weekly top 12 status, but on a weekly basis he should be a low end RB2, high end RB3, who (assuming health) will likely end the year as a mid-range RB2. On draft day I'd expect him to fall into the... RB22-RB28 range. Whether he's a good pick, will depend on your RB core and draft strategy up to that point. Right in the group of, Alex Collins, Kenyan Drake, or other backup/RBBC types, like... Dion Lewis, Coleman, and some rookies with upside, although they might climb past them. (Michel, Penny, etc) Hyde and Miller should both be higher than CJA in my opinion, they're both under valued right now, and will climb over the next few months I assume. 5th will be too early (12 team PPR) 6th is fair, 7th is value.
  12. Saquon Barkley 2018 Season Outlook

    You're making my point. Todd Gurley isn't what turned the Rams around, a new coaching staff was.
  13. Saquon Barkley 2018 Season Outlook

    If you think Gurley is what turned the Rams around, how do you explain 2016 when Gurley was there and the Rams sucked?
  14. Saquon Barkley 2018 Season Outlook

    Easy. Player X Scores 15.2 Points every single week. 15.2*16=243.2 Fantasy Points That would have been the 8th best back in the league last year. But would have NEVER finished top 10 in any single week. In a game where we play weekly... we win or lose weekly... tell me, if your RB NEVER has a top 10 weekly finish, but finishes the year top 10... Was he (or her #Equality) an RB1 or not? I know what you're thinking, that's fake, that's made up, it's not a real scenario. While this specific scenario is fake, it has in fact happened. In 2015, through the 16 week fantasy season, Demaryius Thomas finished 9th among WRs. He failed to ever post a top 10 finish in any given week. Was he a WR1 or not? There is no right or wrong, it's open for interpretation. The point is not to be ignorant to the alternate uses of the term. Ezekiel Elliot finished 12th last year. For the 10 weeks he played he had the 3rd highest PPG average in the league. Would you classify him as an RB1 or not? If your answer to this question is no, stop. Pause and ask yourself, if the 3rd most valuable back (in regards to the game we play) in the league wasn't an RB1, why should anyone give a damn about who is or isn't an RB1? RB1 is an arbitrary term that the fantasy world has shoved down your throat. If 10th has 230.5 fantasy points and 11th has 230.4 fantasy points, is one an RB1 and the other an RB2? Meaningless cutoffs, terms, and definitions, that have no actual basis in the game we play. RB1, Stud, Elite, the list goes on and on.
  15. Lamar Miller 2018 Season Outlook

    Personal? Lol, I called Miller a low end RB2. I'm not defending Miller, or saying he's good, I'm saying Gordon isn't good either. You're the one trying to defend a player you like, not me. Just because you can't comprehend what I wrote, doesn't make it wrong. Try reading it again: Since Gordon entered the league 3 years ago, Miller crushes him in every category except the ones most important to fantasy football. Touches and touchdowns. Gordon entered the league in 2015. SINCE THEN means 2015, 2016, and 2017. Crushes is hyperbole, but they are essentially indistinguishable. Which circles me back to my point. I'm not saying Miller is good, I'm saying Gordon isn't. The only difference is Gordon gets force fed, making him far more valuable in fantasy, which I conceded from my first post. You're the one who claimed Gordon is a 'hell of a lot better' than Miller. I'm saying you're wrong. They're both equally as mediocre. *Full disclosure, Gordon has missed 3 more games, you know, because he can't handle the workload. So unless you can back up why you think Gordon is a 'hell of a lot better' than Miller (which was my original question you've been avoiding) you're just talking in circles. Why don't you just admit you couldn't have been more wrong about your 'hell of a lot better' statement? Tl;dr Miller is an RB2 talent, with an RB2 workload. Gordon is an RB2 talent, with an RB1 workload. Draft accordingly.