FFCollusion

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FFCollusion last won the day on December 13 2016

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  1. QB: Carson Palmer QB: Tyrod Taylor RB: Le'Veon Bell RB: David Johnson RB: Ezekiel Elliot RB: Jamaal Charles RB: Kenneth Dixon RB: Giovani Bernard RB: Terrance West WR: Randall Cobb WR: John Brown WR: Ted Ginn Jr. WR: Marqise Lee WR: Will Fuller WR: Kevin White TE: Jason Witten TE: Antonio Gates K: Philly DEF: Oakland DEF: Jacksonville I came into this draft with a very simple idea, I wanted the top 3 RBs, allocated a budget of $183 for the 3 of them combined ($61 each) and would fill the entre rest of my roster with $1 players. I got Bell for $48, DJ for $55, and Zeke for $61. This actually gave me a decent surplus of $19 that I wasn't expecting. (RTSports had the average price of these players at $62, $64, and $62 respectively) I actually didn't think I was going to be able to afford all 3, and because I knew I was crippling the rest of my roster to do it, I almost didn't even nominate the David Johnson TE, because I was afraid I would waste a roster spot on a $1 TE. Luckily multiple people fell for it, and the bidding jumped multiple times. Having the first nomination spot in the draft allows you to pull this (admittedly **** move) type of trick out, and I went for it. This is only the 4th RTSport League I've ever drafted, I saw this once last year, and made a mental note. Apologies to Impreza for using his name to pull it off, but I wanted to punish the randoms who joined our lobby, as I would have liked it to have been all members. I think that lies on the organization of the draft but it's whatever. My initial plan was to have 5 RBs, 7WRs, 2TE, 3 QBs, 1K, 2DEF. I nominated T.West for $1 assuming someone would go 2, for the hypothetical starter of BAL. He's the only player I got stuck with, while nominating low level RBs, to try and force some bidding after I took the big 3 away. The DJ trick created a vendetta, and that owner made a public point that he was going to try and take all of my WRs. So, I nominated 4-5 for $1, filled his roster with people I had no interest in at all, and even bid them up a few times pretending to be interested, lol. There were 1-2 he took away that I wasn't expecting him to, when he skipped drafting any kicker, allowing him 1-2 extra roster spots I wasn't expecting at the end, I should have waited for those nominations I guess. Ultimately had this guy not had it out for me, I think my team would have wound up much better. I'm perfectly fine with both my TEs, Witten/Gates are solid options for $1-2 each. I'm a big Tyrod fan for years now, Palmer is whatever, and the only real QB left as my 3rd option was Sam Bradford, so instead I decided to just ride 2 QBs, and snagged another WR. Knowing how weak my WR core was going to be, I planned on only 1 kicker, so I could have another WR. Cobb, Brown, Lee, and Ginn were targets of mine. Fuller and White were probably 3rd tier on my list (given my known budget), but both have upside. I didn't have enough time, energy, or desire to research the players after my top 10, or above 60. It's easy to know who you like up top, and I didn't want to bother trying to value RB 11-30, or WR 11-30, if that makes sense. Making a list of boom/bust WRs is simple, and there are a ton this year. In a best ball format I'm only looking for 4-5 solid weeks from these 6-7 WRs resulting in 24-35 good weeks, when given my team design, I need 32. You know... if you pretend only 2 do it per week, every week, which will never happen lol. I was quite surprised by the price differences from RTSports listed Average Auction Values, as last year I remember them being pretty accurate, but it's early this season. I missed Demaryius for $8 because I went to the bathroom. Dez going for $22 was crazy, Hyde for $10 was insane, and there were a few other RBs I expected to go higher, especially when I removed the big 3 from the list so early, but I was mistaken. I'd gladly trade Zeke for 3-4 other players that combined for his total, but that's hindsight, and was an error in judgement on my part, by believing the AAVs listed. Honestly, I felt like other people weren't paying attention, when multiple values were had in the middle of the draft, but I had already spent ~$180 and it was too late to go back. I don't mind going for the combo of 2 Elite backs, but 3 was a mistake. Although had Zeke gone for the same ~48-55 range of Bell/DJ then I might not feel the same way. I had 3 teams last year, where I went very balanced in the draft, and they resulted in very balanced teams last year, finishing 3rd, 4th, and 6th if I recall correctly. So for my first draft this year, where I knew I was going to be rusty, I decided to go all out, and take on a lot of risk. Also it'll be fun to own the big 3 backs, and I was hoping it would have created more RB chaos than it did. Though on draft day, there are RBs to be had... perhaps by week 8, when teams start losing some of their RBs, or committees are formed, hype dies off, then maybe my RB core can potentially carry this team, but I'm not holding my breath. Regardless these teams are all about the draft, and I like to draft radically different teams for fun. So I'll probably end up doing 3 of these total, one with Zero RB, and 1 completely balanced. I was really disappointed I couldn't find a way to analyze last season leagues. Maybe I'm not looking hard enough, but I wanted to calculate what a 2nd defense actually added to my point total, same for kicker, a 3rd QB vs 3rd TE. Maybe someone can lead me in the right direction if that's possible. Also, I still don't even know who everyone was, who made it or didn't. Anyways, good luck guys.
  2. Listen carefully... Everyone understands your point. They aren't asking you to repeat yourself, they're asking you to QUANTIFY your claim. Quantify what 'volatile' means. Quantify what 'boom' means. Quantify what 'bust' means. Unless you can quantify your claims against Cooks, so that they can be equally held against the alternate options at his ADP, then you're just throwing meaningless claims, and no one cares how you define any player. quan·ti·fy ˈkwän(t)əˌfī/ verb 1. express or measure the quantity of. "it's very hard to quantify the cost" 2. LOGIC define the application of (a term or proposition) by the use of all, some, etc., e.g., “for all x if x is A then x is B.”.
  3. I'd be more interested in how they define 'overhyped'. Cooks finished 7th on the fantasy season, both in total scoring and on a per game basis. He's currently being drafted as the 12th WR off the board, 24th overall at FFCalc. He's currently being drafted as the 15th WR off the board, 31st overall at Yahoo. He's currently being drafted as the 17th WR off the board, 33rd overall at ESPN. Coming off back to back 1100+/8+ fantasy seasons, at only 24 years old, I have to ask... What hype are people referring to?
  4. I don't follow this logic. Are you insinuating elite QBs are more likely to produce Elite WRs? Do you have any evidence to support that claim? Rodgers/Jordy, Peyton/Demaryius probably pop up a time or 2 each, Luck/Hilton last year maybe. The top 5 QBs in the NFL, are likely responsible for what... maybe 5 or 6 top 5 WR seasons in the last decade? List every WR season Drew Brees is responsible for, that meets or exceeds the 1400/14 season Blake Bortles helped Allen Robinson to. Hell, throw in Peyton, Luck, Rodgers, and Brady too if you like, I'm curious and can't do it myself right now. In fact... Has Drew Brees EVER produced a top 5 fantasy WR in his career? Maybe Colston pulled it off once or twice? I don't have access to any stats right now, I apologize, or I'd do it myself. I wonder... are Eli and Big Ben responsible for more top 5 WR season in the last 3 years, than Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Peyton and Luck combined in the past 10 years?
  5. What better positive reinforcement is there, than $10-15 Million Dollar annual salaries? While I'm no fan of Goodell, I do think this issue is being manifested in high school and college for these kids. Special treatment, and different rules for athletes. Its when they get to the NFL where there's a zero tolerance that they find this culture shock. Teachers, schools, coaches, scouts... They bend every rule they can to allow a talented person to stay in the path to the NFL, because it's a business.
  6. When is an impossible question, because all it takes is 1 person who wants them more, to ruin it for you, and you'll never know when they plan to take them. 15-1 in the simplest terms, is knowing who your sleepers are, and allowing your draft goals in rounds 8-14 dictate your draft plans in rounds 1-4. I formulated this theory, based on the pretense that I have stronger opinions on players in the later rounds, than I do in the early rounds. Knowing that, it seemed completely backwards to me, to use the early rounds, to determine my draft plans, rather than the other way around. This became more and more apparent when I kept hearing the arbitrary advice of 'Best Player Available', and challenging people to quantify the term. When no one had an answer I deemed acceptable, I began trying to quantify it for myself. If you think BPA is a good draft strategy than I pose a very simple question. Who is the better player between M.Gordon and A.J. Green, and why? Same question; D.Freeman and Mike Evans, why? The issue, is that in terms of draft strategy, no one can seem to answer this question without discussing what the alternate options are later in the draft... and so we come full circle. If the talent of the players, across positions, in the first 1-2, maybe 3 rounds, are negligible, why should we really care which position we get? Again, the answer is because of the talent drop off later in the round. Positional scarcity. Value of replacement. Etc, and so on, but it always comes back to the talent pool of the draft. So instead of taking the 'BPA' in the first 2-3 rounds, and then adapting the rest of my draft to those players... I prefer to do the exact opposite. Based on what's available, what I like, and who I expect to get later in the draft, I'll use that knowledge and adapt my strategy in the first 3 rounds, to round out my team. Any strategy can be successful if you pick the right players. Any strategy can fail if you pick the wrong players. Positions don't matter, players don't matter, points are all that matter. 15-1 is just another tool I use to try and follow the most likely outcome. That doesn't mean you can predict what will happen, it doesn't mean you'll always get every player you plan on, and missing a few targets, doesn't thwart the entire plan. The early I draft, the more risk I tend to avoid... which is funny because everyone knows how much I avoid it as is. The more unknowns, the more potential problems you'll occur over the next 8 months when compared to just trying to account for the 4 month fantasy season. If you're going to own the player twice as long, their risks are now double in my opinion. Find the ADP/Rankings of the site you're going to draft on. Find the players you like this year, and circle them in the rounds you'd gladly draft them in. Do this all the way down the board. Now tell me, in the 8-14th round, how many WRs are there? How many RBs are there? If you have an overwhelming amount of WRs circled... you're probably going to want to focus on RB in the early rounds. If you have an overwhelming amount of RBs circled... you're probably going to want to focus on WR in the early rounds. If you have an even amount of WR/RBs circled... you can consider investing early in TE, QB, or both. I'll dig a bit deeper into this later on in the season, once ADPs settle down a bit, and I can do it with some visuals. Best of luck for the time being. P.S. Random draft order 30 min before the draft, is extremely common in online leagues with random people, at least in my experience.
  7. If the draft meshes with work, I'm in.
  8. He was mediocre behind a top 5 oline, with a rising QB, 2 legit receiving threats, and zero 'real' competition for touches. Now he goes to Minn whose Oline is far worse, has a QB statistically more likely to tear an ACL than throw 4,000 yards, with oddball WRs, and McKinnon and Cook threatening his workload. Oh and let's not forget he's currently injured, just had a FOOT surgery and not even a lock to be ready for Training Camp, has to learn a new playbook, and won't be able to maximize reps during injury, plus potential reinjury that are so common with foot issues. I won't call him a scrub, but Murray is a DND for me.
  9. Coach Bill O'Brien said Tom Savage is "our starter," even after the Texans traded up to take Deshaun Watson at No. 12 overall. Longtime beat writer John McClain also feels Watson won't be starting "anytime soon" due to the difficulty of O'Brien's system. "As a rookie quarterback it's a big jump," O’Brien said. "Tom is our starter and Deshaun will come in and he's going to work hard and we're going to teach him and feed him a lot of information and he'll work at it." Savage will likely open the summer atop the depth chart and possibly get the nod in Week 1, but his leash is going to be very short.
  10. J.Stew hasn't played a full season since 2011. J.Stew hasn't broke 1,000 yards rushing since 2009. J.Stew is now 30 years old. I love Cam, but he can't keep running like he did his first few years if they want to prolong his career. I'm going to withhold my opinion on McCaffrey for the time being, and obviously CAR can still look for a 'pounder' type back in the next 3 days, but in no way do I consider this a 'strength' on their team as of right now. Statistics.
  11. Here is the list of every TE in this century to have a top 10 season their rookie year: Jeremy Shockey - 2002 John Carlson - 2008 That's it. Of these two, only Shockey's '02 performance would still qualify as top 10 by today's standards; 74/894/2 on 128 targets. *There appear to be 2 outliers where WRs had dual eligibility? Calvin Johnson in 2007, and Lee Evans in 2004. According to Pro-Football-Reference, there have been 468 rookie TE seasons since 2000. Meaning statistically there is only a .43% chance of a TE returning a top 10 season as a rookie. Make sure you read that correctly, point four three percent.
  12. April's reminder that 800/5 on 10 games, is a season long pace of 1,280/8. That would have made him the 4th highest rusher in the league last year, and tied for T11th in TDs. 800/5 on 10, would be 11 standard fantasy points per game, completely ignoring ANY receiving stats... would be a top 20 back on a per game basis. 1,280/8, again ignoring ANY receiving stats, is 176 standard fantasy points... which would have been good for 14th overall in 2016. Add the 264 reception yards L.Murray had last year, and it would jump Lynch to a top 10 back for 2016. If you believe he can get that type of production, he's still a 'bargain' even in the 3rd round... If you meant he'll have 800/5 on 16 games or get injured and only play 10 games... then I apologize for misunderstanding, please ignore this post.
  13. Steve Smith comes to mind, but I can't find actual statistics about his snaps from slot to back it up. He transitioned late as he got older, but only played 3 seasons with Cam and I can't confirm when the transition was, or as previously stated, actual snap counts. You and your finishing positions. Zeke was a top 2 back last year, does that make him an Elite receiver? How about Lynch and AP and all their top 5 seasons, are they Elite Receivers too? D.Willy as the work horse for PIT, managed 40 catches for 367 yards. I.Crowell in a committee for CLE, managed 40 catches for 319 yards. Are you claiming that Crowell has elite receiving skills?
  14. Hopefully I clarified that I agree with you as well. I'm not interested in AP, but it has nothing to do with how many past backs 32+ have had 1k seasons. Having said that though, since you've given me the tools... When limiting the data field to this century (2000-2017), RBs age 32+, minimum of 10 games played, and minimum of 160 carries (10 per game) we find only 13 RBs meet that criteria. (Well... technically only 10, since Emmitt and Gore have multiples, but 13 data points) Of those 13, you can see that only 3 broke the 1k mark, but that the worst case scenario (again under the caveat they play at least 10 games) is 720 yards rushing. The average of these 13 RBs, is 14.5 games, 232 carries, 885 yards rushing, 3.8 YPC, and 6.8 TD. There are only 16 backs in the game last season who managed more than 885 yards rushing. There are only 19 backs in the game last season who managed more than 6.8 TDs. Therefor statistically speaking, if you believe AP can meet the criteria above, he has a pretty good chance of returning RB2 value. If you limit the data to only the last decade, (2008-2017) there are only 4 data points. Not a single one of them missed a game, and the average jumps up to 242/949/7. Only 14 RBs managed more than 949 yards rushing last year. Only 14 RBs managed more than 7 TDs last year. These stats alone, even assuming 0/0/0 in the receiving column, would still have been a top 24 back in standard scoring last year. Again... all a moot point, if we don't believe AP isn't going to get a starters workload anyways, but the data is interesting nonetheless.
  15. I think his point is that the statement 'Only 4 RBs age 32+ have ever managed to make the list' is inherently skewed, because of how few RBs actually play at age 32 anymore, yet alone in a position to actually obtain those outcomes. Not to discredit your statement, as I do think you have a point, but it's not necessarily the one currently being discussed/disputed. Only 4 RBs to ever manage anything, sounds like terrible odds. But if only 7 RBs have ever entered a season at age 32, as the expected lead back of their team... Suddenly the statistic has drastically different implications. 4 out of 7 possible times sounds a lot more inviting than 4 in the past 25 years. Even though both stats *hypothetically* could be true. Just to clarify, I don't have a clue how many age 32 RBs have entered the season in a realistic position to attempt this statistic, and no, I won't be looking it up. The point is, how many RBs fail to make it to their age 32 season, shouldn't realistically be held against AP's age 32 season. (Although when discussing cliffs, it is related) On top of that, how many 32 year old RBs that DO play, but were never in a position to be a lead back, also shouldn't be held against AP. Players like D.Sproles, D.Willy as a backup to L.Bell, and M.Tolbert who will be 32 this year, but no one in their right mind is drafting him with the pretense he might be a lead back and rush for 1,000 yards this year. I'd argue that AP himself isn't even in a position that I would consider a lead back with 1k rushing aspirations this year, without an Ingram injury, or trade. With that in mind, the first thing I thought when I saw this news break, 'I wonder where Ingram is getting traded to.' Let's not pretend that the Saints haven't traded away their top playmaker twice in the past 3 years, excluding Brees I suppose. *If you think M.Thomas was a better playmaker than Cooks last year, you are entitled to your opinion, I'm not going to argue with you, just move along. At this stage it seems less likely because of how close we are to the draft, so I think it might be too late, but it wouldn't shock me to see Ingram moved this weekend during the draft. If Ingram and AP are both still on this team come draft time, barring an unforeseen discount, neither will be on my team.