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FFCollusion last won the day on December 13 2016

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  1. How Often Do RB's & WR's Meet Their ADP?

    But how many of those RBs and WRs were actually drafted in the first round? RBs have the greater ceiling sure... that's never been in question. The question is do they return value on their ADP, and in regards to this discussion (and almost always) people are discussing heavy investments in the early rounds of a draft relative to their return. If going back to 2000, I'd guess in the 60% range for RBs, due to the mainstays like LT, Holmes, Fualk etc. Narrow it down to this decade, and I'm guessing we're right back to the 50% coin flip. The fact that RBs have a higher ceiling, means nothing, if the RB who reaches that ceiling was obtained in the 13th round (Kamara). *Kamara didn't reach 350, I'm just speaking in general. I have zero issue with drafting RB heavy, or RB early. I DO have an issue with people saying you should draft RB early, because Kamara(13th), Hunt (4th or even later based on draft date), Ingram (5th), Hyde (4th), McCaffrey (3rd), Duke (7th), all helped carry their teams to playoffs/championships. Over the final 5 weeks of the year, Dion Lewis, Giovani, Alex Collins, and Kenyan Drake all helped people make a playoff push too, but that's not a valid argument for drafting RB early. If the basis of your argument for drafting RBs back to back in the first round, includes the results, stats, or game logs, of a RB drafted after those rounds the year prior, then your argument is inherently flawed. (Not at you IC, just a general statement) I've stated in multiple threads, over the past 2 years, that 2015 was a turning point for RBs. To reiterate what IC alluded to above, the RB class is evolving. The 2015, 16, and 17 years, mark a transition from old players to the new generation. The reason RB reliability was in flux, was because we watched the generational mainstays fade from existence for one reason or another. Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, McCoy, CJ2K... we watched their careers fade. These guys were every year RB1s that you could count on. Those days are gone (Shady excluded). We now need to assess the current class, and decide who will be the next group of guys, if any, you can rely on the same way. Bell, DJ, Gurley, Fournette, Kamara, Zeke, Fournette, etc. Can they become that next class? Time will tell. Long story short, every player needs to be assessed individually. Just like roulette, betting on red or black might be roughly 50% chance of winning, but that doesn't mean every red number or black number can be assumed to possess the exact same 50% chance. Just because RBs have a 50% of returning value on their ADP, Busting, Beasting, etc... doesn't mean every RB is equally as risky. WRs shined strongly while the NFL adjusted to the loss of the RBs mentioned above, while the WR class was in their prime (Dez, AJG, OBJ, JJ, AB, DT, Jordy) But now, we're watching this group start the downslope of their careers, while the younger RBs are on their upslope. There is no black and white strategy for fantasy football, every year is a new evolution of the league, the sport, the players, and therefor the game we play trying to predict it. We can learn from the past, but each year has to be measured on it's own merits. It's no coincidence that the peak of ZeroRB's popularity is in the exact time frame of the transition from the RB class formerly discussed. Look at this year, this season, this crop of players, and the scenarios players will be in this year, to then decide for yourself which players you want to target, or avoid. I can give you all the stats in the world, but they're only numbers. Numbers don't make judgement calls, that's our job. Good luck.
  2. How Often Do RB's & WR's Meet Their ADP?

    Good post. For those who want to look deeper at the numbers, prefer PPR scoring, or want a more recent cutoff, all of the above are included. Last offseason's post, 7 years of PPR data, 3 years of PPR data, split by 6s, and 3 years of PPR data split by 6's, as well as some discussion and observations. 2018 version pending.
  3. Jarvis Landry 2018 Season Outlook

    2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 4 year cumulative PPR fantasy points for every WR who has finished top 30 at their position for all 4 years. *OBJ, Fitz, and Sanders failed to meet this requirement in 1 of the 4 years, but were included for reference. Tl;dr there are only 6 WRs in the league with more fantasy points than Landry over the past 4 seasons.
  4. David Johnson 2017 Season Outlook

    DJ and Ameer both came in to the NFL in 2015. Abdullah career fumbles: 7 Johnson career fumbles: 11 Abdullah games missed: 17 of 49 Johnson games missed: 15 of 50 While I 100% agree that DJ is lightyears beyond Ameer in regards to NFL success thus far and the foreseeable future, it's rather foolish to use fumbles and injuries as your foundation for that argument. I'd stick with production and talent, in which DJ has been head and shoulders above Ameer. Predictable response: Yes, even on a per touch basis, DJ still has a higher fumble rate. 1:52 vs 1:60 for Ameer. Ameer: Career Touches 426, Career Yards 2,908 DJ: Career Touches 573, Career Yards 3,844
  5. Early 2018 Top 20 Rankings

    I hear this often and I while I think it sounds good in theory, no one has ever managed to prove it in practice. The easiest way to prove this point is rather simple, if you're willing to be honest with yourself. If you joined a league, where you only had to start 1 WR, 1 RB, and 1 TE... would you alter the value of Gronkowski in this league? Are you now moving Gronk into the 1st round, because, as you claim, elite WRs and RBs (that we're discussing in the first 2 rounds) are now less valuable? Or would you still rank the exact same RBs and WRs ahead of Gronk, that you do right now? Different people will have different answers, there's no right or wrong answer really. The question I would ask, is why would you alter your rankings based on position only, and not the points they score A: Overall and B: Relative to their position. The real reason people stack RBs, is because they fail so often. The reason they invest so heavily, so early, is because as a community we've ranked and agreed that certain talents, combined with certain situations, lead to the most likely path of fantasy points. Without accepting or admitting it, we've all just agreed we're playing the RB lottery each year. Sure we have personal opinions, reasons, research, stats, etc to backup our standpoints... but ultimately, all the research in the world didn't help if you drafted David Johnson. No amount of research and preparation could have prepared you (on draft day) for Ajayi or Adrian Peterson getting traded mid season. I'm straying off topic, so let me try and reign in back in. D&D above said he did 'just fine' streaming with Doyle and Ebron this year. A sentiment we hear often but that I very rarely believe, and assume they've never actually broken down the math. Now... I could break down how rare it is for a streamer to successfully land a top 6 TE (Doyle) or how that even if you do it, that it only applies to 1 out of the 12 people in your league, when 9 of them were likely streaming this year... but I don't think I need to. I could also break down how rare it is for a streamer to successfully start the 'right' tight end each week, yet alone do it 16 times in a row... but I don't think I need to do that either. Here's what I'll do. I'll give D&D the BEST case scenario across the board. You're a streamer, you land a top 6 TE and a low end TE1/high end TE2 (Ebron finished 13th) I'll put their games side by side, and I'll pretend that D&D picked the right one, EVERY week. Doing the above results in 10 games from Doyle, 7 games from Ebron, for a PPR PPG average of 12.9. Just to clarify, for 17 weeks, I took the highest scoring result from either player, and used those combined-game-logs to come up with this average. 12.9 points per game. Rob Gronkowski averaged 17.3 Points Per Game. That means blindly starting Gronkowski each week, resulted in 4.4 PPG advantage over the 'perfect' streaming TE, who actually landed a top 6 TE. Knowing this information, I want you to look at every WR or RB in the 2nd round, and tell me... which of them offered you a 4.4 PPG advantage over your opponent? A refresher course: (Via FantasyPros ADP) WRs taken from 13-24 in 2017: Amari Cooper (11.3) Brandin Cooks (13.7) Dez Bryant (11.8) Doug Baldwin (13.8) TY Hilton (11.1) Again, I'll give D&D the best case scenario of Baldwin's 13.8. In order for him to make up the 4.4 PPG deficit from his 'perfect streaming TE' to Gronk, his opponent needed to be playing a WR scoring 9.4 PPG. In 2017 there were fifty-four (54) WRs who averaged 9.4PPG or higher. So his opponent on average, needed to be starting a WR5. Think about that for a second, and ask yourself, what was easier for someone to successfully identify and play each week, a top 6 TE, or a top 54 WR? Which one was more readily available on the WW or easier to isolate based on matchup/opportunity in any given week? How about a hypothetical, what if I told you I'll give you a top 6 TE every single week... how often do you think that TE goes off like Gronk can, and single handedly win you a week? Again, this is best case scenario, assuming you made the right pick every time. Do you have any idea what the range of outcomes is in just this streaming scenario? Let's say you have the worst luck in the world and chose the wrong TE every single week. You would have had a weekly average of 6.4 points per game. In this scenario, Gronk held a 10.6 PPG advantage over you. A 10.6 PPG gap from Baldwin is a WR who scores 3.2 points a week. 149 WRs managed that 'feat' in 2017. Maybe you picked the right TE half the time, putting you somewhere in the middle, for 9.6PPG. Now Gronk holds 7.7 PPG advantage. Better hope your opponents WR was only averaging 6.1 PPG, of which 92 WRs did this season. RBs are a bit muddier, as I concede we're playing the RB lottery. 2nd round RBs include Gurley, Zeke, Ajayi, and D.Murray. Zeke is unfair as his cost was directly related to his suspension. Gurley was unquestionably a better investment than Gronk. Ajayi was a bust, Murray was meh and Gronk was the better investment. Using the Gronk PPG advantages from above: 4.4 (best case) 10.6 (worst case) 7.7 (avg case) Murray is a decent example of a non-lottery winner or loser, finishing 20th overall scoring 11.6 PPG. So your opponent would have to start a RB scoring: 7.2 PPG (best case) 64 RBs managed this 1 PPG (worst case) 144 RBs managed this 3.9 PPG (average) 105 RBs managed this Again, the PPG advantage is great, but often difficult to articulate to this forum, and numbers seem to make peoples eyes bleed. So while I think Gronk offers the highest predictable PPG advantage in the game we play, I think that's a secondary benefit. The main benefit, as mentioned previously, is that his 'range of outcomes' is 2. If he plays, he's a top 2 TE. If he's hurt, he doesn't play. There is no Todd Gurley 2016 scenario for Gronk. His value, is in his predictability. We know exactly who he is. Maybe you can land Kelce or Ertz, but how many people with that logic drafted Reed, Olsen, or Rudolph? Maybe you can land Doyle or Engram, but how many people with that logic drafted Howard, Ebron, James, Gates, etc etc? It all sounds so easy pre-draft to say 'just draft Reed a round later' 'just stream 2 cheap upside guys' and then turn around and tell everyone how well it worked, without ever checking the numbers, or proving it. Just because you think something 'worked' doesn't mean it actually did. Making the playoffs or even winning a championship, doesn't mean you should ignore the shortcomings of your season, nor is it justification to repeat strategies or actions, with no thought to how they actually played out. Anyone could have had a nightmare draft, and won their league. Consider drafting David Johnson or OBJ in the 1st Amari Cooper or Jay Ajayi in the 2nd Crowell or Pryor in the 3rd Martavis or Mixon in the 4th Powell, CJA, Parker, A.Rob in the 5th... And then Ingram, or Landry, Kamara, Hunt(based on draft date), Theilan, Marvin Jones, JuJu, Duke, Dion, and the list goes on. Doyle, Engram, Ertz with Alex Smith... and you have a championship contending team. Landing the late lotto tickets is more important than trying to maximize your upside in the 1st/2nd. So many people are blinded by trying to find the 'next' big thing, that they leave points sitting on the board, for fear of missing out on the potential upside. There's a lot of ways to win this game and I'm not here to tell you your way is wrong. I'm just trying to share how I see it, and why I value Gronk's predictability so highly. I'll accept missing on Todd Gurley in 2017, if it helped me avoid the other 10 busts in the 2nd round. I like to play the odds. We can debate the odds all day long of any strategic betting game in the world. Roulette, Poker, you name it. I can give you all the stats in the world of why betting on Green is a low percentage play. Why raising pre-flop with 2/7 off suit is a bad idea... but they are just odds. In any given roll, any given hand, any given fantasy season... it can still pay off greatly. That doesn't make it a good bet. Good bets don't always win. Bad bets don't always lose. I'm just the guy who shares the odds, plays the odds, and can accept any outcome, because all possibilities exist on draft day. The 8% chance of landing Todd Gurley in the 2nd round, means it can happen in any season. Betting against it doesn't always working out, but I can easily stand behind the logic with no shame. There are only 4 WRs I'll take over Gronk next year, roughly 8 RBs, but time will tell. *Disclaimer This post wasn't meant to be directed at D&D, he just shared his example, and it fit the narrative perfectly. Not personal. Edit to add: QBs vs TEs are drastically different than most people realize. Unfortunately QB scoring varies so widely across leagues, it's tough to pin down. I play Yahoo for my personal leagues, 4pt TDs, 25:1. Rodgers is the baseline with a score of 21~24 PPG in my opinion. Matt Ryan was the 24th QB on a PPG basis with 15 PPG. That's a 7 point spread from QB1 down to QB24. A 7 point spread in TEs, is Gronk at TE1 down to Jordan Reed at TE9. That's DRASTICALLY different. Pretending QBs and TEs are similar, just because you only start one of them, is high on the lists of most short sighted arguments I've run into on this forum. (Not at you specifically Hawk, it comes up a lot)
  6. Derrick Henry 2017 Outlook

    Blount had 23 of his 173 carries (13.3%) go for negative yardage, for a total of 55 negative yards. Stewart had 22 of his 197 carries (11.2%) go for negative yardage, for a total of 51 negative yards. For reference, so you don't have to go back and re-check the original stats: Henry had 26 of his 176 carries (14.7%) go for negative yardage, for a total of 77 negative yards. Murray had 17 of his 185 carries (9.2%) go for negative yardage, for a total of 41 negative yards. Bell had 27 of his 317 carries (8.5%) go for negative yardage, for a total of 64 negative yards.
  7. Derrick Henry 2017 Outlook

    I was curious, but I'm not going to hand check every back in the league. To clarify, I have no point to add, this was purely my curiosity being sparked. Henry had 26 of his 176 carries (14.7%) go for negative yardage, for a total of 77 negative yards. Murray had 17 of his 185 carries (9.2%) go for negative yardage, for a total of 41 negative yards. Le'Veon Bell, in my opinion, is the best back in the league, but also a player that seemed likely to have negative plays based on his insane patience behind the line, so I just quickly checked his numbers for context. Bell had 27 of his 317 carries (8.5%) go for negative yardage, for a total of 64 negative yards.
  8. Early 2018 Top 20 Rankings

    Well there's only 1 Antonio Brown in the league, so 11 people in every draft are going to have to settle for a non-safe-cornerstone, making your point moot. On the real football field... maybe not. But on the fantasy field? He averaged 17.3 PPG this year. 17.0 in 2015, 17.8 in 2014, 17.5 in 2013, and 18.2 in 2012. 2011 was his career year, (and Tom Brady's) you can't expect them both to continue duplicating career highs, that's not how things work. Gronk is outscoring the field in 2017, at the same pace he was back in those years. Anyone pretending Gronk has fallen off, or assuming the field has caught up, is basing it purely on speculation, with absolutely no facts to back up their claims. His value relative to the TE position remains unchanged in my opinion. This year, there were only 8 RBs, and 4 WRs who had better per game averages than Gronk, so you'll be hard pressed to convince me he's fallen off relative to the field either. Every year it's the same thing. "Gronk's too expensive, his risk is too high, he get's hurt, he's not worth a 2nd round pick..." blah blah blah. Here we are, and only 12 players in the game had more impact on your weekly performance. And yet still... the cycle continues. He's still not worth considering in the first 2 rounds? And why? Because... it's soooo easy to just draft Jordan Reed in the 4th right? Or Greg Olsen in the 5th. Or Eifert in the 6th. Nah nah nah... just wait and get Witten and Gates late. Ebron or OJ Howard will totally break out this year!!!. Wrong, Wrong, Wrong. Sure, there are players that this worked out with, Kelce and Ertz were great. Graham and Walker were solid options, Engram broke years of history. (If I recall my stats correctly, he's the 3rd rookie TE in the history of the NFL to have a top 10 fantasy season? Something like that) If you want to play the TE lottery, that's fine. Every year hundreds of people on this forum play the same exact lottery with RBs, WRs, and QBs. Whether they call it Zero RB, Streaming QBs, stacking WR2s... it doesn't matter. Every single one of these strategies can work or fail. The strategy you choose to employ means nothing, unless you pick the right players. Fading any position early can work, if you land the right ones late. The problem is with people who insist on pretending that people investing heavily early, are automatically wrong. Plenty of people thought they were SET at RB this year with David Johnson, Freeman, Ajayi, Crowell, D.Murray, Lynch, Cook, Miller... the list goes on. Plenty of people would have laughed at you, if your week 1 RB core was Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Christian McCaffrey... but low and behold. Plenty of people thought they were SET at WR this year with OBJ, Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, T.Pryor, B.Marsh, Demaryius Thomas... the list goes on. Plenty of people would have laughed at you, if your week 1 WR core was Adam Theilan, Keenan Allen, and Jarvis Landry... but low and behold. Every year people. Every year you pretend with such certainty that your way is the right way. This player is the right player, this position early, that position late, stream here, fade there... so on and so forth. 50% That's all you need to know. 50% bust rate for damn near every position in the game when investing in the first 2 rounds of fantasy football. It's a coin flip every. single. year. So if you come in here with absolutes, dismissing alternate strategies... you look ignorant. It's all a coin flip. I do not recommend bothering an ounce of your time worrying about which position you'll pick when you're on the clock. The only focus should be which players, regardless of position, do you feel will succeed or fail this year. Once you've labeled those players, put yourself in a draft position (whether literally on the board, or just strategically with a plan) to obtain the highest amount of players you think will succeed. The sooner you stop caring about what position you obtain, and the harder you start focusing on which players are most likely to succeed, the easier your decisions will become. Gronkowski's value on draft day, is very lightly tied to his positional advantage, but very heavily tied to the minuscule range of outcomes that exist for him. His value lies in the fact that he only has 2 possibilities in the game we play. If Gronk is on the field with Tom Brady, he's a top 2 TE. Or he's not on the field. There is no other mathematical outcome possible for Gronkowski, given the data we have at hand. If he plays, he's a top 2 TE, and a top 15 player. Or... he'll be injured and not play. That's it. There are no other realistic scenarios for him in fantasy football, until we see a decline in his (or Brady's) play... which can, and sadly will, happen at some point in his career. I personally don't think age 28 in 2018 is that point, but you are all entitled to your opinions. Gronk likely won't make the 1st round in many, if any, leagues this year. But he's going to be right there at the wrap staring at you, next to guys like AJ Green, Keenan Allen who is even more injury prone, maybe Mike Evans with his up/down nature, Jordy turning 33. Next to LeSean McCoy as he turns 30, Freeman off of a down year, Cook off of an injury with a small sample size, and L.Murray lurking, one of the Saints RBs, etc. Maybe you like some of these players, maybe you don't, maybe you disagree this is where they'll even be drafted, but my point is this: Your confidence in players dries up really quick, and when you see a name like Gronk, where the only doubt you have is, whether he can stay healthy... suddenly he starts looking a lot better than guys who have the same health risks, and also performance risks. That is why I personally value Gronk so highly. The injury risk is real, I completely understand that, but is there a single player in the league who isn't 1 hit away from a season ending injury? How many players do you feel confident in saying 'as long as they play, they'll be a top 15 non-QB player'? Gronk's injury risk is absolutely valid. But will he have a Todd Gurley 2016 season? Or a Mike Evans 2017 season? Is there any scenario where you think Gronk is in your lineup, on the field playing... and just flat out sucking? I don't think there is, and that's why i personally value him as highly as I do each year, despite the injury risk.
  9. Derrick Henry 2017 Outlook

    @Lord_Varys: I know the Patriots run the ball in the red zone more than any other team. @dmb3684: You just made that up. Source? LV's claim was that the Pats run the ball in the red zone more than any other team. Nowhere did he mention a pass/run split. Having said that, I'm not sure the source I used above is the correct data I was looking for regardless as the numbers don't align with a few other sources I've since checked, so I would dismiss it. It seems every site has slighlty different numbers, and the NFL doesn't get specific enough. I agree with you, that the total number of runs by NE in the red zone, is skewed by the frequency in which they are in the red zone. It wasn't the claim originally made, so I think you're dodging, but ultimately I agree that the stat isn't very useful without context. Unfortunately, I'm not sure the pass/rush ratio means anything either, because of the Tom Brady effect. McDaniels likely won't put the ball in Mariota's hands (vs Henrys) as often as he put it in Brady's hands (vs the 10 randoms NE has). So none of this is actually relevant in my opinion. While McDaniels may have tendencies and patterns with one team, you can't automatically assume he'll transfer those to another team built completely different, with alternate strengths and weaknesses. Since I've already done the searching though, here's some nice charts for visuals: 2017 Above is the 2017 data, where NE ranked 7th in Run Ratio (52%), despite leading the league in total attempts (105). Below is the 2016 data, where NE ranked 3rd in Run Ratio (54%), despite leading the league in total attempts (122). *Just to clarify, these are Red Zone only. Most interesting thing in these charts, is how JAX went from dead last in the league, to 1st in the league. Fournette is an obvious reason, but the drastic swing is impressive nonetheless.
  10. Early 2018 Top 20 Rankings

    If accurate information is your idea of trolling, then... fine. You made 2 claims I found to be misleading, so I simply tried to expand on them for clarification. At no point in my post did I make any implication that you were wrong, dumb, mistaken, or otherwise. I simply put Hilton's stats into perspective, and then backed up your point about him being undervalued by many, by reiterating my ranking of him as a top 12 WR for 2018. Perhaps instead of just complaining about everyone else's rankings, you'd like to offer your own? Do you have a top 20 you'd like to contribute to the thread?
  11. Derrick Henry 2017 Outlook

    It's rather widely know, but if you need the numbers... 2017 NE was 1st in the league with 4.4 Red Zone Rushes per game. 2016 NE was 4th in the league with 3.9 Red Zone Rushes per game. 2015 NE was 2nd in the league with 3.9 Red Zone Rushes per game. 2014 NE was 1st in the league with 4.3 Red Zone Rushes per game. 2013 NE was 2nd in the league with 4.1 Red Zone Rushes per game. 2012 NE was 1st in the league with 4.4 Red Zone Rushed per game. 2011 NE was 1st in the league with 4.5 Red Zone Rushes per game. 2010 NE was 1st in the league with 4.2 Red Zone Rushes per game. In fact, 2003 (7th) and 2005 (6th) are the only 2 times in the last 15 years that NE wasn't top 5 in this stat.
  12. Derrick Henry 2017 Outlook

  13. Early 2018 Top 20 Rankings

    In 2016 he lead the league in receiving yards, but was not the #1 WR. He finished 5th overall, 8th in PPG. He also did NOT break 1,000 yards this year (966). Even if he did, 1,000 yards no longer means anything in the game we play. 23 WR's broke 1,000 yards in 2016. 22 WR's broke 1,000 yards in 2015. Despite the atrocious year WR's just had in 2017, 13 WRs still broke 1,000 yards and 17 WRs were 'on pace' for 1,000 yards receiving. Having said that, Andrew Luck is an obvious upgrade to his situation, assuming health, for 2018. TY Hilton is coming off career lows in targets, receptions, yards, and TDs. (Excluding his rookie season) I believe in progression to the mean. He offers a nice buy-low target off of a down year, but I'm not confident he belongs in the top 20. Think of it this way, he wasn't even drafted top 20 this year, coming off of a league high receiving yards in 2016. It's quite unrealistic to expect him to be drafted higher after the year he just had. While partially effected by Luck's absence, the vast majority of Hilton owners only expected Luck to miss 5 games maximum (otherwise they would have put him on PUP to start the season (was justifiable logic on draft day)) For context, I had Hilton as my 12th WR a few pages back, which landed him 28th overall before accounting for any hype trains, rookie sensations, or trade/FA acquisitions that will inevitably cause others to climb ahead of him on draft boards. I highly expect him to be a 3rd round player come draft day, possibly climbing to the 2nd round wrap if A: Luck plays in preseason (and doesn't look gimpy) B: Breaks off a big play in preseason.
  14. Early 2018 Top 20 Rankings

    I doubt this is the place, but I'd challenge you to prove all (or any) of these claims, with real world FOREsight examples. If your justification of why you should draft a RB early involves the names Kamara, Hunt, Ingram, McCaffrey, Hyde, or Fournette, then you're doing it wrong. If your definition of a 'Zeke-level RB' is a handful of guys draft 3-5 rounds after Zeke, then again... you're starting from backwards logic, and this won't go anywhere. Scoring settings are always the largest factor in these type of debates, as well as your definition of 'average' and how you measure 'top 8' (EOS, PPG, Weekly, Matchups etc etc) but I'm struggling to find any scenario where Rodgers was more beneficial than AB was this year.