FFCollusion

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FFCollusion last won the day on December 13 2016

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  1. Stop it. Alshon, Watkins, and Allen COMBINED have the same amount of 16 game seasons that Dez has. Dez had a bad 2015, and an injury lost year, no argument there. Last year, he missed only 3 games, and also lost his career-long QB, and had a complete rookie running the offense last year, there was going to be a learning curve. Having said that, Dez has now suffered an injury 2 years in a row, so there is risk that needs to be factored into his ADP. But he is NOWHERE near Watkins, Allen, or Alshon. Dez has more 1100 yard seasons than all 3 of these guys combined. Dez has triple the amount of 10+ TD seasons as these 3 combined. Dez has more top 10 seasons than all 3 combines, multiple top 5 seasons, whereas the other 3 combined have zero. Dez Bryant had 3 back to back years of 1382/12, 1233/13, 1320/16. Allen's best season ever was 1046/8, Watkins' best season ever was 1047/9, Alshon has actually been great,, but only as long as B.Marshall was on the field drawing #1 coverage, who now is going to a new team. Dez's injury risk is pretty much already baked into his ADP at 18th overall, whereas if not for the injury, he'd likely be next to, if not above, AJ Green at 9th overall, who just happened to miss double the games Dez did last year. TY is likely safer, but lacks the upside of Dez, take your pick I have no issue with either. Amari is improving for sure, but has given me no reason to believe he or his offense, is going to alter the way they use him/Crabtree, and he's just a WR2 who doesn't even belong in this round or discussion. M.Thomas is a 1 year wonder, but very talented on an amazing offense, also transitioning from defensive attention. So... Dez, TY, Thomas, Amari for me personally, but if you prefer safety then I could support TY, Dez, Amari, Thomas.
  2. Better a good poster with poor behavior, than a poor poster with good behavior. Only one of these traits helps people win money. You seem to possess neither.
  3. While you make a compelling argument, and to clarify I believe I agree with you these 2 can coexist, even with Gronk... My take away from your breakdown is this... Who else did you expect Brady to throw to in the years you've selected? Edelman in the slot, or the garbage they've had on the outside for years? Gronk gets his when he's on the field, but Edelman gets ecause he's the only wr deserving of targets in this offense for multiple years. That will no longer Be the case for 2017. So while I agree with your standpoint, I'm not sure I support the method used to arrive at your conclusion. Just my .02 though.
  4. Generational Talent and Generational <position> are not the same thing. Is OBJ a generational talent? I think so, yes. Is OBJ a generational WR(or player)? Nope... not yet. Having generational talent, doesn't automatically make you a generational player. You have to produce at an elite level for a significant amount of time, to qualify, in my personal opinion anyways. Josh Gordon might have been a Generational Talent, but if he never plays the game, it means nothing.. I believe MegaTron was a generational talent, and hope everyone agrees. But despite my love for the man, I think there's a decently valid argument that he didn't stay in the game long enough, or have enough elite seasons, to go down in history as a generational Wide Receiver. It's sad, but it's the reality of this discussion, and how I believe the two should be differentiated. I think you're misconstruing their statements. Off the field, sure, maybe Gronk is bigger head-case, but when have you EVER seen Gronk have an episode on the field, like the multiple breakdowns OBJ has had? I could be wrong, but I don't ever recall seeing Gronk have any on-field issues. The reason Gronk's meatheaded-ness doesn't get in the way of his success, is because it never occurs, nor impacts his performance, on the field. You can not say the same about OBJ; his issues overflow onto the field, and his success certainly has been impacted by it, more than once. Whether it's by missing games by getting suspended from on-the-field actions, or losing a fight to an inanimate object, his issues indisputably effect his performance on the field. Eli is a generational talent... at throwing interceptions.
  5. Since you couldn't quantify any of your other statements, I'm going to go out on a limb and say you can't quantify 'predictable' either. How many targets/catches/yards does a player have to get a week to qualify as 'predictable'? Antonio Brown is the best WR in the league, and had 2 weeks of 4 for 39. (Still acceptable for a bad week, don't misunderstand, I'm just going down the list) Jordy was #2 last year, In week 7 he went 1 for 9, in week 18 he went 1 for 13. Mike Evans at #3 went 3 for 38 OBJ #4, 3 for 23, 4 for 28. TY was #5, 1 for 20. Julio #6, 1 for 16, 3 for 29. And those are the top 6 WRs of 2016. Is this the type of 'predictability' you demand in the first 3 rounds kiddo? Do you really want to hinge your statement on the 'predictability' of Baldwin, Dez, Hop, A.Rob, Keenan Allen, Demaryius, Landry, and Alshon last year, who are the remaining names being drafted in the 2nd/3rd rounds? You just keep throwing out arbitrary words with no real data to back them up. More importantly, even if you could quantify your claim, you don't get to tell people what they want in the first 3 rounds. Just because you want reliability, doesn't mean everyone does, it doesn't mean you're right, or that's best. Some people want guys who can single handedly win you weeks. Some people actually prefer the 20/10/20/10 pattern to the 15/15/15/15 pattern. TY Hilton is a perfect example. 14,8,31,17,33,8,26,3. Those were his first 8 weeks of the season. Half of this forum will tell you 'Hilton lost me 3 games' and the other half will tell you 'Hilton won me 3 games'. They could both be right, they could both be wrong. It's purely perspective. The inverse is true, let's say you owned M.Thomas last year, whose game log looks like this: 12,10,20,14,18,23,12,24. Much more consistent. Now imagine you own M.Thomas and played against Hilton in your H2H league. Half the time you're thinking 'That's why I prefer a steady WR, I just won my matchup cuz Hilton dropped an 8,8,3' The other half of the crowd is thinking 'That's why I prefer a guy like Hilton, I just won my matchup because Hilton went off for 31/33/26' It's purely preference, and is usually dictated by hindsight more than anything.
  6. Either you suffer from dyslexia or you play on some obscure website. 69th on ESPN, 77th on Yahoo, 61 on FFC. Adrian Peterson's Saints teammates have "gushed" over Peterson's running ability at OTAs, "marveling over his burst and stride length." Peterson is aware most people doubt his ability to return from a lost season at age 32. "I'd be lying to you to say it doesn't give me a chip (on my shoulder)," Peterson said. "Especially being a competitor. ... It's something that drives you a little bit. After 30, because it was the same back then. 'Oh, he's 30.' Then I ended up leading the league (in rushing) in 2015." In New Orleans, Peterson will be playing in the best offense of his career behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines. He's a middle-round fantasy target with upside. Jun 7 - 10:08 PM
  7. The difference between Britt and Pryor? Probably like 54 injuries, 9 surgeries, and 6 IR placements. I challenge you to quote every single person in this thread, who has stated they believe Pryor will be a bonafide WR1 in fantasy this year. Mikeflavaz doesn't count, your post came before his.
  8. My stance On rookie TEs is pretty black and white. From the O.J. Howard thread: Maybe noteable was a poor word choice, but the point is the same.
  9. Brandon LaFell's numbers also went up the next season after he left NE for CIN. Do you call that "Getting away from Tom Brady"? Cam helped Steve Smith to 79/1394/ which was the 2nd best fantasy season he ever had in his life, at the age of 32. His only season better was in 2005, back when he was 26 years old. Cam also helped him to 73/1179/4 the year after at age 33. Yes, his final year with Carolina was rather poor, but even his best year with BAL was only 79/1065/6.
  10. Unknown starting QB, Kenny Britt as the most established (and healthiest) WR on the field, and no notable TE... Perfect is not the word that comes to mind. 3rd round is too rich for me. I've been on the train for 3 years, but it might be time for me to hop off.
  11. What the **** are you reading? Stop listening to morons and actually do some research for yourself because you're embarrassing yourself. Cousins has been a starter for 2 years now and has had THREE pass catchers break 110 targets.
  12. There's better value than taking Bell, Dj, or Zeke first overall... But that's not a valid argument against drafting them at their ADP. Without looking, I'm confident I can list a player who will be a better value than Docston. That's not a valid argument against drafting Docston at his ADP though. Assuming the don't have ADPs in the same round. Snead is a considerably better value than M.Thomas this year. That doesn't mean Thomas is a bad pick. I don't have to be a fanboi of Pryor to dispel false narratives against him with statistical analysis. If I see ignorant information, even if in support of a player I like, I will still dispel it. If you see information posted you know/feel to be false, then it's your obligation to correct it, no matter what your personal opinions of that player are. That's how I feel at least. It's not a pissing match between another poster and myself, it's about providing accurate information to the thousands who lurk these forums hoping to get good advice for their fantasy seasons. I've said it before, I'll say it again, I don't really care how many calls someone gets right or wrong. What I value in a poster, is a logical, well thought out, analytic process. If it works, great, if not, at least you can stand behind your decision. No matter what method you use to pick players, no one is going to get them all right. Find what works most often for you, and use it consistently across the board. Don't pick and choose when rules apply, based on nothing but personal opinion. I can't tell you how many times I've disproved my own personal bias, by actually analyzing a player the way they deserve to be. Be very weary of people who are too weak to admit when they were wrong, made a mistake, or simply misspoke. There is no shame in being wrong when it comes fantasy football. The only embarrassment is the people who refuse to accept when it happens to them. Best of luck.
  13. I want to make sure people are aware, Cleveland QBs combined for 557 pass attempts last year. Whether from behind, in the lead, or tied is of little consequence when discussing total attempts translating to WR target totals. So with that in mind, I want to make it very clear, Washington threw the ball 606 times last year. They were 6th in the league for pass attempts, and 3rd in the league for completions. I don't want people to create this fallacy that Pryor is leaving an offense that threw the ball non stop, to go to a balanced offense that isn't producing targets. That's factually incorrect. Washing's offense alone, was responsible for 49 targets and 73 receptions more than the Cleveland offense. Let me remind you, Pryor only had 77 receptions last year, meaning basically, Washington had an entire T.Pryor worth of offense, more than Cleveland had last season. 49 targets, 73 receptions, just from offense alone, then exit D.Jax for 100 targets, and 56 receptions. Then exit Garcon for 114 targets, 79 receptions, and we get a grand total of 263 targets, and 229 catches, unaccounted for on the Washington offense, above what was available to Pryor in Cle. Oh, did I forget to mention, Pryor, despite playing for the Browns, outscored every single one of the Washington WRs last year? Cleveland QBs had a 59% completion percentage. Setting drops aside, let's say that 59% of the passes thrown in Cleveland were accurate. Kirk Cousins, had a 67% completion percentage. Pryor had 141 targets from Cle QBs, meaning we can roughly estimate that 59% of them were accurate throws, which would be 83 accurate balls thrown to him. Using Kirk Cousin's 67% accuracy, in order to receive 83 accurate balls, T.Pryor would only need 123 targets from Cousins. 123 Targets from Kirk Cousins, is the equivalent of 141 targets from Cle, in regards to estimated accurate balls actually thrown to T.Pryor. T.Pryor and D.Jax both ran a 4.3 40 time, but Pryor is 3 years younger currently. Pryor is also 48lbs bigger, and 6 inches taller. Garcon ran a 4.4 40. Pryor is 4 inches taller, 12lbs bigger, 3 years younger, and this is before we even discuss 'football age' in which Pryor has really only played 34 games in his career, has only been running routes for 1.5 years, and has a grand total of 79 career receptions. As far as wear and tear on his body, Pryor is astronomically younger than the receivers he's replacing, or competing against. Pryor has his flaws, he has his legitimate risks. There are reasonable and justifiable concerns about his 2017 production, but I promise you 'Catch Rate' and 'Leaving Cle for Wash' AREN'T on the list.
  14. I agree with you, but ultimately... Who cares? The people trying to use this BS excuse against Pryor aren't applying it to anyone else in the league. This same garbage came up in another thread I can't recall, where a RB had a poor appearing stat, and they tried to use it to discredit him... All the while not realizing, LeVeon Bell, the #1 RB in the game, lead the league in that 'bad stat'. So let's add even more perspective for these blatant liars. Pryor, catching passes from trash x4, managed a measley, pathetic, embarrassing 55% catch rate. We won't even remove uncatchabe balls from the equation. TY Hilton, who 1 naive poster feels is elite, in the best year of his entire career, catching passes from what many believe is a top 5 QB... Only managed 58% catch rate last year. So Hilton, with a top 5 QB, only catches 3% more of his targets than Pryor with a bottom 5 QB... And I'm suppose to believe that's a stat that bodes poorly for Pryor, and Elite for Hilton? That's a joke. No one is calling Hilton a WR3/4 because his catch rate was terrible. No one is moving Hilton down their boards because of his catch rate. Dez Bryant was a top 5 WR once he returned from injury, only caught 52% of his targets. Mike Evans was a top 3 WR last year... Caught only 55% of his targets. Odell Beckham Jr, one of the most talented WRs in the game, the man who can catch anything, whose targets come from what I've heard herald as a future hall of fame QB... Caught only 59% of his targets. In 2015 who was trading away Allen Robinson because he was only catching 50% of his passes? No one. Brandon Marshall, also switching teams, to a considerably better offense, who only caught 46% of his passes last year... Is he a WR3/4 too? How about if we turn the stat upside down. Let's all pretend catch rate is important... Cole Beasley, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Tyreek Hill, Muhamed Sanu, Landry, Cobb, Fitz, Garcon. That's 10 of the top 12 WRs in catch rate. Where are you drafting them? *Minimum 80 targets It's a very simple argument to dispel. If no one is using the stat to disqualify WRs at the bottom, and no one is using the stat to draft WRs from the top of the list... Why in the hell should we may any attention to the stat? Why should we put any value into the analysis of someone who uses this stat, only when it benefits thier personal opinion, with a complete disregard for accuracy or consistency? We shouldn't. I'd challenge anyone to present a reasonable case of why Pryor's 55% catch rate from Cle QBs isn't actually more impressive than Hilton's 58% catch rate from Andrew Luck.