Established Members
  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won


taobball last won the day on June 24

taobball had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

4,596 Excellent

About taobball

Previous Fields

  • Add to Mailing List?

Recent Profile Visitors

4,684 profile views
  1. Baseball metrics

    But isn't that the whole point of everything I said? You use metrics to curve your opinion not to create your opinion. And really there's pretty much a metric for the vast majority of quantifiable variables.
  2. Baseball metrics

    I was having this conversation with the founder of a fantasy site recently about philosophy when it comes to advanced metrics and this is what it really comes down too-- There's this big fight between an "old" school and a "new" school... and the problem is that the best way to look at it is implementing both. Both sides are wrong, if they only believe in using one are the other. Metrics are great. Anyone who looks at what I post on the forums KNOWS I love metrics. But metrics-- any metrics-- are not the be-all-end-all. The way metrics are properly utilized is that they are a way to gear your understanding/eye in baseball to look for things. Saying "He has a high Hard%" in the new school and saying "I've seen that guy; he hits the ball hard," are equivalent. One just lends itself to the other. If I say "Jedd Gyorko has a high whiff% on Sliders down and away," the point is not to just look at that and go "OH, that's a metric." The point is, if I make that observation and then watch said player play, and I see a pitcher throw him three straight sliders down and away, I know that my metrics allowed me to curve my eye to see things better in the game. Metrics are like an ecosystem. They move and interact with one another. One affects the other. But the point of them all is that they are more like scouting reports than anything else. When you analyze them and see things in them, they allow you to watch baseball with a more keen eye and look for things that can confirm or dissuade you from an opinion. So ultimately, IMO, the only way to view metrics inaccurately is to see "the eye test" and "the metrics" as two mutually exclusive things. One just informs the other. If you think they're different-- you're wrong. If you use one to help you understand the other-- then you're scouting baseball and using all the available information to help you build knowledge about players and more broad situations.
  3. 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread

    Ah okay, with no research just seeing the message I thought he was an FA signing.
  4. 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread

    I mentioned it in the last post-- but I think some of it does have to do with age. I think you can chalk up some of the ups and downs to age. Like 2016 was a relative down, but it still came with his lowest BABIP in a 5 year period. Again, I've NEVER been a Hosmer guy -- as early as last year I was an anti-Hosmer guy... but I'm starting to get on the Hosmer train. The power's there and the skills are there.
  5. 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread

    And I don't dislike Santana. All I said was that I think if you're going to clutter up your easiest defensive position with a guy might as well get one who has a chance to be special for the next few years over one who's older and probably on the decline.
  6. 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread

    Looking at defensive metrics blindly also doesn't mean anything at all. As Tony as already posted one, there's a ton of debate over Hosmer's defense. I dont' think it's fair to just simply say "Hosmer's defense is bad." At the least it's debatable.
  7. 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread

    Depends on if you think he's going to continue to be up and down. I don't know how you disagree that using career stats is a bit biased when comparing a guy who's 28 against a guy who's 32. Maybe just look at the last three years? And sure, there's recency bias in using the most recent year, but Santana has never had a season as good as Hosmer 2017 by a VARIETY of metrics. He's never had a .385 OBP (aside from short sample seasons), he's never hit for a .318 BA, he's never had a 135 wRC+. We're also discussing many ups and downs that occurred at a young age. Hosmer's only truly bad season which tanks his Career WAR occurred when he was 23 YO. This is the first year I've been pro-Hosmer, but I really like what hes done over the coures of the past three years.
  8. 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread

    Using career is biased against the player entering his prime against the one exiting it. True, Santana is a better walker, but Hosmer hit .310 last year with power. He's been progressing while Santana is likely to go the other way over the course of the deal. It's also insane to me to use Career WAR. I know Santana in terms of number of years hasn't even played that much more than Hosmer, and Hosmer's career has been up and down, but these just aren't fair stats to me.
  9. Los Angeles Angels 2018 Outlook

    Sure but he's been good with an improved eye and improved power the last two years. Maybe that 12.2% BB% isn't completely legitimate but some part of this I would argue is new skills. I don't think he completely collapses even if he isn't quite what he was last year. His Steamer line of 18 HRs and a .257 BA would be plenty for a plus defensive player, especailly one with flexibliity playing next to Andrelton.
  10. 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread

    Ew, if I was Matt Moore I'd take half the money to go to any pitcher's park.
  11. 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread

    I don't even necessarily think it's because they're "Rebuilding." I don't think it's outlandish for the Phillies to add some legitimate pieces and see where they stand this year and make a legitimate run at getting 80 games. They have some solid pieces now, such as Rhys, that could supply a wealth of upside as soon as this season-- but this is the WRONG piece to me. No defensive value, not in the AL, and someone you're paying a good amount over the next few years. Like I know he was considerably more expensive, but if yo uwanted to blow your wad on a First Baseman why not go after Hosmer who also has a bat that should play excellently in Citizens Bank. At the very least they could've waited for him to sign elsewhere. This just looks bad to me.
  12. New York Yankees 2018 Outlook

    Maybe, but he's alraedy on the 40 and has a great glove. I think there's at least even odds he makes the opening day roster.
  13. Chris Taylor 2018 Season Outlook

    I know you linked the article (if it's the one I think it is) but one of the important things in there is that the coaches he worked with to work on his swing are the same that JDM worked with. Also this is probably not the right thread but what's with the hate I'm feeling from numerous people on Alex Bregman? Was a .284 BA with 19 HRs and 17 SBs so disappointing that we forget how crazy talented he is? Bregman's got Fantasy Stud Breakout written ALL over him. And (just so I say more about CT than Bregman here) we'll see how pitchers adjust to Chris Taylor, but I think there's a lot of legitimacy in his late career breakout. He does seem to love hard stuff (19/21 HRs were on Fastballs, Sliders, or Cutters, only 2 on Curves and Change-Ups), so we'll see if pitchers give him a lot more change-ups in particular. But overall if the speed and on base skills are legitimate, the swing change has definitely seemed to give him a much improved ability to hit the ball for power and punish mistakes.
  14. Rhys Hoskins 2018 Season Outlook

    IDK, Franco hasn't been great but two years ago and even to a large extent last year he was being talked about as the savior of the franchise. And listen I was as low as anyone on Franco last year-- but I dont' think he's this bad by any means. I hate his batted ball profile-- but I don't think he's going to have a .234 BABIP either. The guy still has some good and hard to teach baseball skills.
  15. Los Angeles Angels 2018 Outlook

    What would be a better way to show Trout something than to win a WS, which is what I'm advocating they try their hardest to do? Cubs have the best GM/President in the history of professional sports. Where's your Arrieta for Feldman trade or your Rizzo for Cashner trade? Dont' get me wrong, any team can do it, but when you look at the moves the Cubs made to insight that turn around it truly is remarkable... I mean the Astros took Mark Appel #1 the year the Cubs got Kris Bryant at #2. And no one could've predicted the kind of run Arrieta had. They definitely got really lucky. And I dont' know what moves like that the Angels are praying on. I mean I think Trout leaving LA is a foregone conclusion because I've heard from most people that they believe it's a foregone conclusion. Trout's not Harper-- he's not al about the big market and big city. He doesn't live in LA during the offseason. He flies back to NJ(?) so that he can be closer to family and friends. I think there's a strong possibility he goes to the Northeast. Of course it's not a foregone conclusion. But I think it's very very likely, and I also don't think that me advocating that the Angels spend more money to try and win a WS in the next three years is exactly something that's going to push him out the door-- I think winning a title would make him more likely to stay. With all that said-- Cozart may very well have been a better signing. I didn't consider that one and I like it a hell of a lot more than Headley or Solarte. I don't know about his defense at 3rd necessarily compared to SS, but the left side of that infield is insane now defensively. GB pitchers could have a bump up in LAA if some of the pitchers can get their s----- namely their health s----- together.