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taobball last won the day on June 24

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  1. We dont know but we can figure out what he'd be hitting with different BABIPs. I'm just not a Ben Gamel believer at all really. I find it really unlikely that a player with Gamel's level of Power, Speed and Contact will ever be a truly viable fantasy option. Gamel seems to be about a 10/10 type player as how many 10/10 types can perform at a major league level with a 20+% K%, let alone a near 25% rate. Heres an example chart of what his BA would be to date with various BABIPs: BABIP/BA .462 BABIP / .353 BA (current) .400 BABIP / .307 BA .375 BABIP / .290 BA .350 BABIP / .272 BA .300 BABIP / .236 BA (league average.) So I think he's got to hit at LEAST .272 BA to justify that 10/10, and .350 is a lofty BABIP to just expect from a young player even with what he's done to date. I'm just passing on this one entirely.
  2. Technically only 44 mil if they decide to pick up his 25 Million Option in 2020!
  3. Delino undeniably holds value in just about every league so long as he gets PAs. The combination of his near 30% K% and his over .400 BABIP obviously suggest that he's not going to hit for a very good average and I still don't believe that as a baseball coach I'd think Delino was much better than a fourth OFer, but in a standard league where SBs are 20% of offensive value Delino is a valuable commodity with PT. I don't pretend to be completely up to date with the Rangers depth moves, but I do recall seeing ESPN suggesting that they did not believe he had semi-regular playing time anymore. Is the competition between him and Gallo now? Either way, I'm not a huge fan of the skill set overall, but if he plays, he'll steal, and that's valuable.
  4. Fun fact, between 2015 and 2016 Homer Bailey has been paid 28 Million for 34.1 IP. If he can put up a similar IP total to 2015, he can actually surpass the 1 Million Dollars Per Inning Pitched marker.
  5. To be fair, with the 10 Day DL and a player like Corey Seager, I would contemplate sending him to the DL every time he got a cold if I were the Dodgers. Not saying I'd ever do it obviously, but the shorter the DL gets the more players are going to go on it for smaller issues. If I were Seager and I was pulled from a game for any issue I would think there's at least a modestly increased shot of ending on the DL now because it's not the 15 day. I neither saw nor know much about the issue so I'm not being case specific here, just saying that those comments don't necessarily suggest to me that it's NOT a cramp. I do agree though that it could be more and the Dodgers could be lying for sure.
  6. And I think it's a little premature to be calling yourself right on Hanley Ramirez. He's pacing 24 HRs per 600 PAs with a .240 BA and a BABIP that is 60 Points shy of his career average. He's really not that far off of expectations if he just has a hot streak. I could easily see Hanley making up 4 HRs worth of ground over 350 PAs and having a bit of a BABIP resurgence. His Batted Ball data isn't really any different at all and he's generating a 37+% Hard%. If asked the same question in the preseason as today in regards to Hanley, I'd have the same answer, and unless I find something to change my mind to the contrary, my new projection will be roughly the same as my old, though obviously with 50% of all the counting stats.
  7. Not much to go on of course, but that .190+ BABIP sticks out right away as being just completely unsustainable, especially when you add in the fact that, tho it does not count todays game I do not believe, he has a whopping 39+% Hard Contact% against. Haven't seen him pitch and obviously didn't watch todays game, but that and a sub-6 K/9 does make this seem highly likely to be a fluke.
  8. I don't think that's a fair assessment at all. Every single profile offers optimism of course because every single player has an upside. That isn't speaking to the likelihood of it happening. Joey Gallo has made some improvements, and if he makes some more he could be a fantasy asset. What's inaccurate about that? What would you prefer me to do? Ignore one side of the coin at all times? Gallo's Zone Contact% has jumped by 16%. I didn't see that mentioned so I mentioned it. I understand that you're not my biggest fan but I'd prefer if you could refrain from making posts like this that are just directly about me. Offer a counter point to my point or something about Gallo at least, and then throw that in there if you really want.
  9. Im not trying to necessarily talk you into anything. I do think there are fairly encouraging signs tho overall. Here's a recent write up of mine via my rankings thread: Joey Gallo -- While Gallo’s BA currently sits under the mendoza line, there have been some positive signs thus far in 2017 that suggest Gallo could be in for a bit of an improvement if he continues to get PT. Here’s an example of what I’m talking about in the form of a blind resume: Outside Zone Contact% Inside Zone Contact% Overall Contact% Player A: 40.2% 75.6% 59.6% Player B: 40.2% 75.4% 64.2% Player A is Joey Gallo, while Player B is Miguel Sano. Essentially, thus far in 2017, Sano and Gallo have made the same contact on pitches in the strike zone and pitches out of the strike zone. For Gallo, this represents a very large 15.6% increase in his Zone Contact Rate, which was 60.0% in each of his first two major league stints. The difference in their overall contact rates derives from Gallo chasing bad pitches. Essentially, if Gallo and Sano swung at the same proportion of balls and strikes, they’d have equivalent contact rates. So far, Gallo has swung at 1% more balls in the strike zone compared to 8.8% more balls outside the strikezone. If Gallo can just get that under control while maintaining his O and Z Contact rates, he could raise his BA enough to be mixed league relevant, as even a .220 BA would support his massive power. I’m optimistic about Gallo’s short term future, as I believe the contact leap is the main difficulty for a player like Gallo, and to a large extent he has made it this season.
  10. This is the first part. This is more of just the opening research notes by which I'm developing my second rankings set. I listed parts as coming soon above, but essentially I could have waited to release everything until the rerank, but decided to release my notes first to try and spark discussion because I thought it would probably benefit the rankings overall. In terms of Story, what he has done outside of the month of April has me encouraged. His BA is up over .270 since then and his K% is south of 30%, and considering that K% stabilizes at roughly 60 PAs, the roughly 129 PA sample should be seen as pretty legitimate. Story has already hit a good number of HRs in his career so I don't doubt the power too much, and I think most would agree story with a sub-30% K% has a strong chance at being a top 50 player. As I've said though, I haven't done too much pitch specific and in depth analysis quite yet as a lot of this is just jumping off points. I'll have to compare especially Story's whiff%s to 2016 and see if there's something I see as more of a flaw and an exposing of that flaw or a fluke. As of now I'd predict Story as a top 50 player, but much more research is warranted to make sure that I believe that is still justified. One quick noteworthy item: a fangraphs article was written about how Story's FB% went from high to Schimpf level to start the season. Here are his LD/FB/PU% by month (hope it looks fine im on my phone): April: 13.7% LD%, 68.6% FB%, 22.9% PU% May: 15.6% LD%, 56.3% FB%, 5.6% PU% June: 24.4% LD%, 42.2% FB%, 5.3% PU% So, I definitely think he's got his launch angles back under control, which was probably a mechanical adjustment. They seem particularly strong since he returned from that couple week absence. His June Batted Balls in these categories are by far the closest to his 2016 averages (23+, 47+). If his whiffs also are looking similar to last year, people may call me absurdly stubborn, but I won't drop him all that much if I truly believe he's going to have a strong second half just because the first half was bad.
  11. I thought about writing a blurb on Morrison and probably should've. Will probably just rectify it and slide something in on him at 189 after Fat Adams. For starters, I obviously don't know where I'm going to rank him personally, but Justin Bour will be separate from that field. I don't know how people view Bour around the sport currently, but based on the preseason, I'm expecting my midseason ranking of Bour to surprise a few people. As I said in the piece, Bour's 600 PA average on his career is .272/30/100. That's very valuable, and I would no doubt take him above all those names. I think, following Bour, I'm at the very least the most optimistic in Morrison retaining some level of value, just because I would've picked him out of the three at the beginning of the season and I feel like he has had at least a level of sustained success in his career particular v. RHP. Those three though at my current evaluation are very similar. Somehting to take a look at and will be working on differentiating.
  12. I mean, sure that makes sense with injuries, but most of the time I feel like organizations are typically cautious with players and wouldn't put their number 1 prospect in the majors when he's struggling so much in AAA, unless they think it directly has something to do with his mentality playing in AAA. I don't pretend to know who else the As could possibly call, I just feel like most organizations don't rush players in these scenarios, but I do see where the need has risen. I mean I expect Barreto to play up a bit, because I'd expect that out of about anyone, but just mathematically/statistically if you tell me a guy has a 29.6% K% in AAA I'm expecting right around 35% in the bigs. Especially in his first big league stint.
  13. Curious as he's striking out a TON in AAA right now. Hard to say if he can make enough contact being relevant in really any capacity, and honestly when players typically come up with a 29.6% K% in their only real stint at AAA, I have a hard time believing that they will right away. Still, he does have ample power and speed, enough that he is the type of guy who could easily be a Mixed league MI if he just hit like .235. Like think about what Semien did last year (.238/27/10) but shift some of the power for speed (16/21) and I think that's an (albeit pretty optimistic) potential outcome that could see Barreto being Mixed League Relevant.
  14. dats why the users got to put in the work ;). The Midseason Manifesto Foreword: I will forego the majority of the explanation of my 6-8 week hiatus. Simply put I had a bit of a *rough* exit to my Spring 2017 semester and took time off due to finals and really just decided to really take some personal time to do absolutely nothing for a while. As such I've just been completely out of the baseball loop and haven't really been, prior to this week, up to date with many individual performances. The manifesto rectifies all of this. I intend this to be about a four part project, the first of which I finished up last night, and the second of which I will start sometime here in the next few hours. My intention is to, firstly, compare performances with my preseason notes and expectations of players, as well as how those expectations may have changed and what may have changed them. Then, the latter parts of the Manifesto should include a full re-rank, (though at the present I believe I will exclude RPs and Cs), and updated projections for all ranked players, or at least hitters, for the last 50% of their PAs. The most important thing though to take from this foreword is that, while obviously this is a released list of Blurbs/Profiles/Rankings/Projections/Etc. for everyone's potential benefit, as I have not been paying attention to baseball personally, a lot of especially the early parts of the manifesto are incredibly self serving in that it is my way of reviewing my own work, and this is a primary concern for me. Part of this even manifests as having "Pats on the Back" and "Wags of the Finger" based on rankings and performances to date. I could go back through my notes and edit them into a more consumable format but the fact of the matter is that writing a blurb for 188 Hitters is exhaustive enough without me having to worry about referencing myself too directly, and if everyone waited for me to produce a polished and well-edited product than they may still be waiting for my preseason top 253. Maybe a bit of an exaggeration but you get the point. Staying in this theme, I do physically mention good and bad calls based on a combination of My Rankings, ADP, and Midseason Performance, and try to point out guys over/under consensus that I have been right or wrong on to date. This is not a major part of the manifesto and should not be focused on by the reader, it is just part of my way of catching myself up with the happenings of the 2017 baseball season. It is also worth noting that, as I've written on nearly 200 Players over the course of a handful of days (and of course this is not my day job), there are plenty players that deserve an additional depth of research, some of which I even point out in the manifesto itself, as if I were to stop for deep inquiries it would've just taken too long to produce anything. This way I can get the ball rolling now and work on adding depth as I work toward part 3, which will be probably the most important part, the rerank. My hope now is, as it was in the preseason, that some of these perhaps more basic blurbs can spark more specific inquiries, and really just that I can get this thread producing questions again that will help direct future research. So please. Ask questions again. I'll be around a lot now with no more school and having finally caught up, at least in hitters thus far, so that I can feel relatively informed on baseball again. and without further ado about nothing, The Midseason Manifesto -- Part 1 -- Hitters Usage Guide: Just taking brief hits from my foreword, this is more of a culmination of personal notes than a polished list of blurbs as one may find on ESPN. It does, however, cover 188 Hitters, including everyone (barring a couple obvious examples like Kang and Marte), ranked in my initial top 253 and at the very least most hitters who have managed to make it into ESPN's Top 200 on the Player Rater who were not in the original rankings. As this is a massive piece of work, for most readers I wouldn't suggest actually reading it, but using CNTRL+F if looking for thoughts on a specific player. And, if what you're looking for isn't there, I hope to see a question. As mentioned before, I also do mark players who have exceeded 200 PAs and who were ranked at a distance from their ADP as being Pats on the Back or Wags of the Finger based on how those predictions look now. The Midseason Manifesto -- Part 2 -- Pitchers (Coming Soon!) The Midseason Manifesto -- Part 3 -- Midseason Re-Rank (Coming Soon!) The Midseason Manifesto -- Part 4 -- Rest of the Way Projections (Coming Soon!) Am I missing anything? Oh yeah. Cheers.
  15. I think the reputation of the Bears defense stayed to some unfair extent for a number of years after Lovie left.