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taobball last won the day on September 15

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  1. Keelan Cole 2018 Outlook

    Okay but why was he not still acclimating to the field? I guess that's my whole point. you seem to think some things he did were disappointing where I see the same stats as encouraging because of how difficult it is to do what he did last year as a UDFA working his way into the #1 WR on the offense. Target% isn't the most important thing for Cole. If they all get equal target numbers but Cole is a league leader in YPR, which one do youthink will be worth the own? And it's not low, but it's also higher than his Year 1 significantly (cole's is not) and it IS substantailly different still than Cole's 17. what logical fallacy? Any information is exactly what it says it is. For one, that's a 6-game sample. But for two, the point is that-- since becoming the WR1 in this offense, he has produced like that. It isn't supposed to be what I expect. If that was my expectation that would be nuts. Saying "This is what he's doing" Is different than saying "This is what he'll do." Surely I don't have to explain THAT. If he's a boom/bust WR2, he's still a top 24 WR. Again-- you're using 4 of 9 like it's "terrible." He's had solid consistency for a player with his Highs and relatively not-bad lows since he's been the #1 WR in Snaps. In a season where Desean Jackson finished as a top 20 WR, you probably started him every week. I see this situation similarly. And no WR posts great numbers every game. Really? The last "year or two" does not include 2016... mmk. Focusing on the games that Lee was "useless" is ridiculous. For 1, he was not the WR1 in Week1-- Allen Robinson was. He was a Fantasy WR2 (WR23) the entire time he was the WR1. You can debate his consistency all you want. You can't find 24 WRs that are much better over that stretch and THATS the only relevant point. It doesn't matter how many games he was relevant in, it matters how they compare to others. You're focusing on his bad games like if you did that to any WR18-24 they wouldn't look bad. There is no sample of 8 games over the past four years in which the WR1/primary in snaps for the Jags was not a top 24 WR. You literally can not find a single point I don't believe-- unless probably you include games where AR tore his ACL. What's so different about the offense now? Bortles has always targetted his WRs. He was 11th in Passing yards last year. The idea that no WR/TE/Pass Catcher will be relevant consistently to me is far fetched. I just simply don't agree. I think every data point we have in Blake Bortles career tells us the #1 WR on teh Jacksonville Jaguars will be a low-end WR2 at worst by seasons end. That's a startable player in every league, just like I expect Cole to me.
  2. Keelan Cole 2018 Outlook

    I don't quite understand the point here. To me, and maybe I'm just reading the narrative the way I want to instead of the other way around, but doesn't it make sense that a Rookie UDFA playing behind multiple players would see increased usage and have better chance of having numbers later in the season? Isn't it/shouldn't it be considered a good thing that he can get 70+ Yard Receptions, which in-and-of itself is very difficult to do? The point to be would be.... Is he getting targets? Are those targets valuable or can he make big plays with them? Answer to both questions is yes. He got a good amount of snaps from early last season. He was still 3rd in Snaps behind Lee and Hurns from Weeks 1-10, when Hurns got hurt. He also played behind Dede for a few of the games until Lee got hurt. His role and rapport grew throughout the season with Bortles. He seemed to play better throughout the season. He was a U.D.F.A! This isn't a knock. In the sample where he doesn't play with Lee and doesn't play with Hurns-- even if you include the game where Lee went out-- he is pacing 80/1,589/8 Yards. And no I really don't count postseason football because it is played a bit differently, and as a UDFA he saw the field a lot less. He's seeing the field and targets this year. I think you're overselling the importance of drafting a player in the late-4th against a UDFA. At that range, I just personally believe after a year+ of investments that come from time & effort, I don't really care about Day 3 draft picks. If you hit on a UDFA no one in the world cares about the sunk cost of a 4th. And in terms of target #, Westbrook is a slot receiver with a low YPR. If you consider Keelan Cole a qualified receiver, he had the highest YPR in the NFL in 2017. Westbrook averaged 12.6 YPR last year. Cole averaged 17.8. Massive, massive difference. He's a deep threat who doesn't need to out-target Westbrook to be a far better WR than him. He just needs to continue to out YPR him. So far this season, he has continued to win with deep balls. This can be said about anybody. Cole has more variables-- far more-- pointing in his favor IMO. 3 Fouls on the Play: 1.) Roster 2.) UDFA 3.) Ignoring the fact that not every top-24 WR produces a top 24-WR season every Week. When you look at what he's done in every game he was the #1 and #2 WR and you average it out, you get a top 24 WR season easily. So to smash your focus in on these 4 games, bring up his entire career, and not even discuss the change of situation... is a bit of a fallacy... and is just super misleading IMO. This year he has been #1 in Snaps and #1 in Snaps. Focusing on the first 10 games of his career when he was third fiddle to more established WRs with rapport with the QB and he was a UDFA is just wrong IMO. Completely and 100% an inaccurate statement that is in no means what-so-ever true. In 2015 Allen Robinson was a monster. In 2016 Allen Robinson was the WR23. In 2017 Marquise Lee was the WR23 from Weeks 2 until he got injured in Week 14. Blake Bortles has never failed to produce a top 24 WR for any reason but injury. The entire year last year--short of week ONE-- you could've played Marqise Lee expecting low-WR2 and high-WR3 numbers. Keelan Cole... is better than Marqise Lee. People keep saying this and it just is false. There's no other way for me to say it other than it is just a false statement. Blake does spread the ball around a bit, but he was also 11th in Passing Yards last year playing for a historic defense, and has never been a QB who focuses on either the TE or RB positions very often. Fournette and TJ had 300/220 last year in the passing game. The #1 TE in Jacksonville had 318 Yards. We have seen plenty of evidence the last few years that this offense can produce an every week starter. And don't take offense to the above ^^. I'm just completely frustrated with this point that I don't believe is even al ittle bit true. Everyone says, and has said from the offseason, that the Jags are not in position to have consistent WR passing volume. They have shown us nothing but consistent WR passing volume for their entire history. The only reason we don't see it is that AR was such a disappointment in 2016 that we forget how good he actually was (still top 24) and Marqise Lee got hurt so he dosen't finish as high as he would've if he would've finished the season healthy.
  3. Quincy Enunwa 2018 Outlook

    He hasn't had a game that big this season yet and he's pacing 91/1131/5. I'll take it.
  4. Quincy Enunwa 2018 Outlook

    57 yards is still 912 on a season. If having a 57 yard game discounts you from being top 24.... well then there just aren't really any top 24 receivers.
  5. Quincy Enunwa 2018 Outlook

    I mean this shouldn't be a very shocking opinion, but Sam Darnold isn't a very good QB right now. I'm not saying he won't improve or develop throughout the year, but we've seen three games and he hasn't looked that good to me. But enunwa should be one of the easier players to target as a slot player. He scored on Bubble screens that were designed for him in this matchup. He converted key 3rd-downs that could've been clutch if the team had won. Robbie Anderson has not only been phased out of the offense, he's not fumbled it twice I believe this season. So I like Enunwa as a top 24-30 WR. But I'd expect to go into most Sundays being a bit frustrated with Darnold.
  6. Matt Breida 2018 Outlook

    Exsctly. The volume question isn’t if he will get 250 Carries. The question is if he can get closer to 200-210 Carries and continue the 3 rec game we saw v the Lions. If he can do a 210/48 type touch projection he can easily be an RB2. It’s not all about the offense, Freeman might be a better player, but ultimately in 2016 Freeman was the RB6 w/ 227 Carries and 54 Receptions. Breida hasn’t hit those averages yet (14+/3+) but he isn’t far behind (11/2) through two games. And you don’t need Breida to be the RB6 obviously. I think Breida, in this offense, could easily be the RB16 on something closer to 200/44.
  7. Matt Ryan 2018 Outlook

    Because Ryan had 4 games of 300 Yards last year and two were against Carolina. Not saying he won’t perform against the saints, but Lattimore and the pass rush are legit at least. If he does have a bad game it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest after what we’ve seen thru 18 reg season games with sark
  8. Jordan Howard 2018 Outlook

    And saying Howard is better when running from shotgun is inaccurate. His YPC has been better on a much more limited sample. We don’t know over a larger sample if that will hold true for Howard or not. But the more accurate way to put it is that it hasn’t been a crutch thus far in his career and we have reason to believe it won’t hurt him moving forward.
  9. Jordan Howard 2018 Outlook

    The bigger concern than performance for standard leagues is: 1.) The willingness to get game planned out. 2.) The pass-heavy RZ. I wouldnt have predicted either of those things. The reverse is that his pass catching looks much better and through two weeks if you have gripes about Howard it’s actually more in Standard than PPR... people s--- on Trubiskys performance last night a lot, and while I won’t say it was good, Trubisky was 14/16 in the second half with a TD. He scored on every drive the offense stayed on schedule. The two he didn’t had a penalty or an early down quick sack. Nagy felt comfortable enough with Trubisky passing on first down to do it all night. Trubisky in the second half completed most of those passes and kept the offense on schedule. I’m not too worried as a Howard owner or panicking. Especially with the reception volume. And I think the TDs will come. But I also am certainly surprised by usage in first two games. Bears have had the lead for 99:53 of the first 120:00 of their season. They have been behind for 2:13. These conditions aren’t likely to continue unless the Bears go 13-3 and they’d seem to favor Howard, but have not.
  10. Trey Burton 2018 Outlook

    Yeah it seemed like Nagys direct game plan to win on the outside. Trubisky was 14/16 in the second half. They didn’t run much despite the lead. This was the game plan today. I don’t know when it’ll feature Burton more
  11. Trey Burton 2018 Outlook

    Trubisky made two bad throws to AR that resulted in INTs, but they weren’t bad reads. Trubisky missed him on an out. As a whole AR caught 10/14 targets. Can anyone actually explain how targeting AR hurt the offense?
  12. Trey Burton 2018 Outlook

    I won't say Trubisky looked good, but its different saying Trubisky looked good and that he has been probably unfairly knocked a bit. His clock and feet were way better in week 2. He wasn't sprinting out of the Pocket or releasing early nearly as much. He was still operating simple reads, yes, but he completed such a high percentage of his passes... why would he change? Trubisky was 10/14 when targetting AR. Neither pick was the result of a bad read where he was locked into AR, and both passes were completeable with better throws. Think he was 12/14 with a TD and 0 turnovers in the second half? Kept his eyes up better. I'mnot saying again that he's great, but he did take a couple noticable steps forward from week 1 to week 2, and the amount of s--- he gets is hilariously unwarranted.
  13. Trey Burton 2018 Outlook

    I mean sure. But in reality he had 0 Turnovers Week 1. You can debate the merits of fumbling on the last play on a 4th and Long if you wish. 1 INT was a shot play that was slightly underthrown, one was tipped at the LOS. Neither were possible without excellent defensive plays. He's not going through his progressions because he's not given progressions to go through. He did pretty much exactly what he was asked all day yesterday. Not saying one way or the otehr, but he did pretty much exactly what he was asked to do. The Bears really only had drives stop yesterday due to penalties or big negative plays.
  14. Trey Burton 2018 Outlook

    What in particular was innovative about Nagy's scripted offense to you? Looked more like a thousand college gimmicks that have mostly failed outside of the first drive to me. Seems like it might make more sense to try to get your young QB into an actual rhythm and give him the opportunity to actually make a decision the entire game instead of putting it all on you and then being surprised when he doesn't have it when the chips are down. But again, Nagy's been coaching ahead for 99+ of 120 minutes so far as a coach, so I guess if you don't think it's broke...
  15. Tarik Cohen 2018 Outlook

    Why does it have to be all or nothing with you people? FWIW he is absolutely NOTHING like Dion Lewis. It's like no one even understand what talents Dion Lewis has. He's more like Sproles than Hill, or Tavon for that matter. Always has been, and will continue to be when healthy.