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taobball last won the day on January 11

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About taobball

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  1. Fuzzy Takes Luis Urias @sngehl01
  2. I’m trying to update the spreadsheet. Francisco Cervelli @Fuzzy_Slippers
  3. I haven’t been on much today but I think we should do this. If @DidiFan wants to pick go ahead we’ll fill in his last two and auto pick consider needs moving forward. Unless someone can suggest perhaps a speed guy? I have him low on SBs. I’m not looking at an adp list right now
  4. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Filter By: 26 YO 30+ WAR.
  5. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Yeah, we just disagree how at all representative of Harper/Machado is of this history. It's not any 10 Year deals, it's high level players in their prime, who are a phenomenally rare thing to reach FA, and have very few examples.
  6. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    I'd also like to point out-- the Chris Davis and Josh Hamilton contracts were some of the most DOA deals ever. Chris Davis didn't even hit the open market--- which is what makes that contract to me probably the worst ever. Duquette had no concept of the fact that intelligent teams were going away from valuing power-hitting 1B at a huge evaluation. The next offseason after Davis went, players with similar traits seeking 80+ Million like Trumbo off a great year got pennies. If the Orioles are just smart enough to wait into the open market, they'd have realized no one wanted to pay Davis taht much but them. Josh Hamilton was a textbook example of just ignoring problems. Hamilton had a huge K% jump and really showed huge signs of his ultimate decline in his last year before every coming to the Angels. I mean I'm a bit more picky about things, but how do you take a guy who went from a 17-18% K% to a 25+% K% right before you sign him and don't go "Hmmmm.... maybe this is going to be an issue moving forward." Again--- the number of COMPARABLE examples to high level, 26-YO players hitting the market in their primes. I'd be interesting to do a test for Manny Machado / Bryce Harper based on the following: Harper and Machado both have 30-31 WAR on Fangraphs. Neither is 27 yet. I'd like to take a look at every baseball player in history who fits that criteria before age 27, and then see how much WAR on average they put up in the next decade of their career. I'd bet, and I don't know, that it looks like the average player to accomplish this would be worth 350+ Million.
  7. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    I have no idea why you're still debating this-- it's clear you're not going to move on it and others aren't. I bowed out of this awhile ago and it's shocking to me it is still going on. My last 2 C's. It comes down to one thing and one thing only: Do you consider the sample flawed? WAR is irrelevant. You argue people using it "like gospel" but that's not really what this is. It is just the easiest way to simply write down a players value in modern baseball. Having to give a BA/OBP/SLG with HR and SB slash line is just annoying for every year. I believe the sample is flawed because of the arb system, and that the reason the majority of contracts don't occur is that it's the time in which they are signed. Robinson Cano is another prime example of this. From ages 26-31, Cano had 33.8 WAR, over 5 WAR Per Season. He hit a minimum of .302 with 25 HRs I believe in all 6 seasons. It's in his late career as a 2B where his career has finally taken a few shots. And let me add, Cano still has yet to produce UNDER 2.8 WAR in a season I believe since before he was 26, so he has not been a terrible baseball lplayer for the length of the contract. And asking Orioles fans about Chris Davis... misses the boat on the horribly ran organization that the Orioles have been for the last several years. Their (old) GM last year announced that they would start scouting internationally... because they were literally choosing to ignore the entire International FA pool, using it as a short term trade chip. It was a s--- organization ran from the top down. I don't know if Davis is the straw that broke the camels back, or rather just one symptom of an organization that was truly a disaster. I don't, contrary to what you believe, believe that a team who makes one of these bad decisions will be unable to make it into serious Postseason consideration. They weren't as old of contracts, but the Cubs certainly had teh beginning of a true albatross on their team (Heyward) when they won the title, who contributed almost nothing. Look at Boston's payroll last year. They have 51 MIllion locked into David Price and Rick Porcello. Price was much better in the postseason last eyar, but those two pitchers were NOT worth 51 Million. Nowhere close. But when you have Betts, Bog, Bradley in arb and players like Benintendi making 500K, it makes it certainly possible. Price is not worth 30 Million per year. Cano has practically been a better allocation, at that price. More importantly, you're continuing to not look at the fact that the money DOES exist. Maybe teams like the Angels and Orioles would maybe struggle with it, but the major market teams out there could suffer a huge disaster of a contract and still SHOULD, with record revenues, and manipulation of pre-arb and arb contracts, be able to compete, and still have more money to spare. Not choosing to continue to extend a payroll is just the choice to horde more money and increase profits. I also don't understand why you would ever call a 10 Year Contract bad if it didn't live up to every year. That's just a logic that we don't share and that I don't understand at all. To me, the entire concept of a long-term deal is that the player probably pays out a little more AAV in the early years, the team probably overpays on AAV in the later years, but that's what you do to get the player on your team. What a player does in the last 3-4 years of a 10 year contract to me, if the first 6-7 were at the expectations of the contract, is almost irrelevant in terms of earning the contract. If you signed a massive deal and couldn't find a way to win something significant with a great player playing great for 6 years, that's on you, the GM. I think some of these teams like the Cubs are idiotic for not jumping out of their shoes at this slow market when they clearly have the organizational revenue to do it.
  8. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    IMO? Most likely yes. You keep using 31 like it's old. 31 for a hitter with an advanced approach is very likely to be fine. Hitters don't "break-down" at 31 very often, especially when they have Harper's eye. You keep calling it an overpay. I do not believe it is an overpay. I believe it is a risk. But if I've got a well built team with players on rookie pre-arb or early-arb, I think it makes plenty of sense. And I just quoted in detail my 10 Year, 372 Million evaluation based on what I would project to be Harper's WAR for the next 10 years. That's the entire point. You could get Harper for 10 years and perhaps completely avoid decline. You won't care about year 10 even in year 10 if years 1-6 or 7 are incredible. But there's a solid chance Harper is not an albatross at 34-35.
  9. Jeff McNeil 2019 Outlook

    i'm not saying he was absent for half of seasons. I'm saying he has performed incredibly poorly, or otherwise as a league average hitter. Like in 2015, where he had a .251 BA and 6 HRs at the ASB. Or in 2014/2017, where he did hit a little over .280, but only hit 7 and 6 HRs after the ASB. That's basically my point. He's had some hot stretches, but for about half the time he's been in Seattle, he's been a slightly-above league-average hitter. A .280 / 20 type with a good eye, and no speed. I think, at 36 YO, I'm not paying for a player where I think I can see small indivdiual hot stretches carrying my overall impressions.
  10. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Sure, but manipulating that service time has become worse and worse, and whether or not you want to consider it being "smarter," this unitary decision by franchises to not pay over a certain amount for players instead of making it an open market is causing, like we've been talking about, higher revenues and lower payrolls. Teams are sticking hard and fast to their evaluations in a way they've never done before. And while I respect all the manipulation from a gamesman stand point, it is making it increasingly hard for players to find long term contracts. And again this wouldn't be a problem if the money didn't exist. But the money FUNDAMENTALLY exists. It is being created via revenue. Which means the decision to not pay a player is ultimately coming down to the simple decision to make more money. If it continues the rate it's going I do think there will be a strike. And I don't think that's me being crazy. Free Agents these last couple years have gotten the raw end of the deal.
  11. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    I get that this is your stance and I respect it. But arguing with you about this from my perspective would be absolutely futile.