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Everything posted by taobball

  1. #1 player who gained the most value throughout the offseason? +++++Coach Value ++++Receiver Value +Offensive Line Value (have to go to twitter to follow the thread. Worth it.) Let's get it. FTP
  2. Deserves a thread in the absence of Josh Gordon. Got 4 Targets in Week 1. Converted for 1 Reception for 38 Yards. Is 6' 2" and most likely to play from the outside pretty consistently in this offense where Landry will play obviously a lot of slot. Outsnapped Antonio Callaway by quite a bit. 54 and 61% of Offensive Snaps v. 15 and 17% of Offensive Snaps. Performed admirably in the preseason. Has been a project UDFA for the Browns for three years now. Of all the things that Higgins is or may be, Rashard Higgins is NOT an athlete. Not at least in the high level NFL sense. Not overly fast and won't flash any athletic explosiveness. What makes Higgins interesting is his route running and his potential separation ability. Reception Perception in particular dubbed him a player with some good potential, but that hasn't necessarily came to fruition. After all, Higgins was also in a pretty good spot last year to get targets and he only got 27 Rec and just over 300 Yards. Here's the Reception Perception Article: https://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-rashard-higgins---never-tell-me-the-odds.html I don't believe I would add him over Callaway, because I'm not too sold on the ceiling. That said, his size, the above article, target potential, and the fact that he is *probably* going to be cheaper than Callaway make him an interesting player to freely add.
  3. I’ll b down to add an alternate and join the next
  4. Taylor Gabriel 2018 Outlook

    Define consistent? A consistent starter who scored a high minimum points every week? No. Consistent enough to be a top 36 WR? Yeah I kinda think so.
  5. Alex Bregman 2018 Outlook

    Bregman's Hit/Contact/Bat-to-Ball tool is still phenomenally underrated. It was amazingly underrated coming into the season. Because of his HR/SB output, people seem to be focused on the normal things we get distracted by... and even those discussing the BB:K change (55:97 to 96:85) are still short-selling Bregman's contact. Yelich struck out 20% last year, Bregman 12.1%. That's a massive difference to bet against. Going deeper into the contact. Alex Bregman's Contact% last year was 88.5%. His Z-Contact was 92.5%. His SwStr/Whiff% was 4.2%. Christian Yelich's Contact% last year was 79.0%. His Z-Contact was 88.1%. His SwStr/Whiff% was 9.2% That's a drastic difference, and people will pay it no (or less) mind and consider Bregman and Yelich's ability in this regard to be similar. Bregman's not just GREAT at bat-to-ball, he is the absolute most elite tier. We had 140 Qualified Hitters this year in Fangraphs League Leaders. Alex Bregman By Value, Rank, and Percentile: SwStr% | 4.2% | 2nd | 99.3% Contact% | 88.5% | 4th | 97.9% Z-Contact% | 92.8% | 13th | 91.4% My Yelich projections for next year will have close to a 20% K% again, as he has roughly done his last three years. There's no reason to me, in the data, that Bregman won't continue to produce a K% at his 2018 value of 12.1%. There's no reason in the data that, as a hitter, he can't continue to improve in this regard and essentially threaten to be Mookie Betts with better plate discipline and less speed. Yeah, you can easily make the argument 12.1% was his career best, but *cough* as anyone who read my preseason guide in 2018 knows *cough* I was very high on Bregman's potential to improve his K%. It was an expected change which occurred, so it is easier to buy into. Bregman had a .289 BABIP, Yelich had a .373 BABIP. I will project Bregman for a higher BA than Yelich in 2019.
  6. Alex Collins 2018 Outlook

    IDK, I'd say a good number of coaches will bench a player for a drive for fumbling. That's not really that out of the question. Alex Colllins got the very first snap after Buck fumbled, and I believe they would've given him the drive had Collins not injured his ankle. If you disagree, I won't fight you on it. But that seemed like Collins drive before the injury.
  7. Equanimeous St. Brown 2018 Outlook

    That EQ play would be a *bit* more impressive if it wasn't pretty much pointless. He made a nice move regardless...
  8. Alex Collins 2018 Outlook

    I don't know if I've been more frustrated a single moment this entire season than when Buck Allen fumbled it only to have Alex Collins twist his ankle on his first snap and allow Buck right back into the game. I mean seriously... every indication we have about "punishing for Fumbles" as Collins has sat drives would have lead us to believe he would've really gotten some shake right there after Buck's fumble. Getting Buck back in the game two snaps later was so frustrating. But at least Buck Allen, and not Collins, fumbled. So there is that.
  9. 2019 First Rounders Discussion

    Maybe in a week or two. I've started going over the season so I'd just prefer to not go too deep if my opinions may change in the next 10 days.
  10. 2019 First Rounders Discussion

    No chance I take Javier Baez in the first round. I love him as a player and a Cubs fan, but I'm not taking that K:BB in teh first. Call it whatever you will.
  11. Larry Fitzgerald 2018 Outlook

    My problem isn't that you don't have a point, but I think you're jumping the gun on the conclusion. For instance, his past doesn't mean "nothing." His past sets a precedent for his skill level. I've watched him play this year-- he doesn't look like he lost a skill level compared to the years previously. He's played one game with Rosen at QB. Rosen's played one game at QB. I'm willing to believe the realistic expectation moving forward is still pretty strong. Ultimately I'm not sitting on the other side of the fence screaming that you're wrong, I'm more standing alongside the fence. You seem to think definitively he's done after his last three games. My assessment of the situation sees more upside than yours does, and it wouldn't shock me to have Larry put up top 12 numbers ROS, depending on how quickly Rosen develops.
  12. Larry Fitzgerald 2018 Outlook

    He hasn't gotten 100/1000 in recent years because of the name on the back of his jersey.
  13. 2018 RB Rankings

    Sure. But the question between him and a Mixon or Hunt is highly debatable. CTs last year+ of production are no joke.
  14. 2018 RB Rankings

    In PPR or Standard? In PPR I think CT will finish as an RB1 if he plays 16 games. That If is the biggest issue
  15. 2018 RB Rankings

    Don't know where i"d rank him right now... but people scoffing at CT need a reality check. He's been an RB1 for a while now in PPR, and an RB2 in Standard.
  16. Adrian Peterson 2018 Outlook

    Maybe, but they'll need to score points to beat NO and they'll have AP in their on the GL.
  17. Marvin Jones 2018 Outlook

    Small caveat/semantic but I would call Josh Jackson "Young" and not "TERRIBLE." He's played 4 games in the NFL... don't want to associate his name with trash because he was one of the best ballhawks in CFB last year and could develop into quite the player by season's end/next year. That's the whole story with the GB secondary. Might be good someday, but right now Tramon Williams is probably the best they have. So unless Jaire/Jackson start flashing a bit more a bit quicker, this is still a secondary to pick on... and with Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark up front, it's also a REALLY tough team to run on.
  18. Nyheim Hines 2018 Outlook

    Just multi tasking probably and missed a word or two. Or maybe an autocorrect did something. Idk. __ People are talking game flow but I don’t think it’s necessarily about game flow as much as it is being able to successfully establish a running game. I’m sure the Colts would like to run more, but ultimately the reason they’ve been throwing so much and Hines has played so much isn’t because of game flow it’s becsuse the team has been so inefficient moving the ball on the ground that they have to pass, and when you have to pass anyway might as well put in your #1 pass catching back and have him run routes. The biggest fear for a Hines owner isn’t game flow to me. It’s someone actually being SUCCESSFUL as a runner, to provide a balanced attack. If the Colts don’t estavlish the run early in games— and that just might happen fairly frequently— Hines will get a lot of work.
  19. Nyheim Hines 2018 Outlook

    With talent and a 70% Snap share* damn no-edits
  20. Nyheim Hines 2018 Outlook

    Depends on scoring specifically how many PPR, but if you're not willing to burn a Waiver on a rookie RB with a 70% talent share for two straight weeks, what are you willing to do it for.
  21. Taylor Gabriel 2018 Outlook

    Wont do that maybe but could have big games. He played in Atlanta for two years and played in 29 games and had more than 6 Targets once. He’s had more than 6 Targets for three straight weeks. In ATL he averaged in the mid-3’s in terms of Targets per game. Often he had 1-2 targets. In CHI he’s averaged better than 7 Targets per game and hasn’t had fewer than 5 in a game. He also hasn’t hit a broken play or a screen pass for a TD. He’s exclusively won downfield and for TDs had plays designed specifically for him. Might be inconsistent but to compare this Taylor Gabriel to the ATL Taylor Gabriel at this point is just nonsense. His role has doubled in size and he hasn’t exactly folded with the opportunity.
  22. Melvin Gordon 2018 Outlook

    I heard something similar late in game but have seen absolutely no report of anything depsite looking. Wouldn't be surprised to wake up to his name on the first practice injury report. At this point I would probably be surprised if it looked like anything were in any real jeopardy.
  23. Marshawn Lynch 2018 Outlook

    I'm not. A lot could happen. I just didn't believe at the time viewing 250/1000 as the top level was fair. Browns or not I think last week proved this guy has a lot of juice. Hell he had a HUGE run taken away by a TERRIBLE whistle while he was still on the feet.
  24. Marshawn Lynch 2018 Outlook

    Pacing 272/1200/12 with 40/240 in the receiving game and a higher YPC (4.4) than his career average. Low-end RB1.
  25. Mitch Trubisky 2018 Outlook

    Care to elaborate?