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Everything posted by taobball

  1. Post-hype sleepers 2018

    This logic is THICK. But sifting through a lot of it, at the end of the day the point is that what you're essentially saying is that late round picks have a greater chance of producing a high rate of value-- which is true. LeVeon Bell and Todd Gurley cannot return much on their investment in this logic. That's not comparing any player here to one of them. That's just a fact. All your logic is really saying is that late round picks panning out can do more for fantasy teams than early picks... which is true based on replacement. That doesn't make one player a better investment than the other. The main point is that how you view Dixon and how you view Collins is of bigger import here. Exactly on all these. Giovani Bernard is a better chance at producing value than Mixon based on ADP in the sense that he's being drafted later. But I like Mixon way better, so it takes it out. I feel better about Dixon as a 3-down back than Bernard, but I feel similarly about my opinions on Collins and Mixon maintaining the role. So since I believe in Collins so much, I think I'd rather have Collins at his ADP of mid-late 4th than Dixon. In auction I'd rather invest more money in Collins than less money in Dixon. But also like the last point says, I like getting both. Okay but these things are you opinion. They don't have to do with the draft price so much as they have to do with the differendce in how we see the situation, Dixon, and Collins. That's been my point from the very beginning. You believe he has a higher than tolerable chance of being replaced. I think he has a better chance of having a valuable role than the backs being placed aroudn him. I believe he is as-if-not-more talented than the backs aroudn him. I believe he could be Marshawn Lynch-esque this season. And I do not believe Dixon gets early down work. Again, these are your and my opinions. But the point is that these opinions define the value alongside the round. You can't just say ones a better value based on the round. If you saw Dixon/Collins closer to Bernard/Mixon, you wouldn't feel the same way. I see Collins/Dixon as closer to Mixon/Bernard, persoanlly, in terms of where I see the roles. Fumbles can cause him to lose the job. He was above tolerable last year in this regard though. He needs to actually fumble to lose the job. I believe he can play and not fumble. We'll see how it goes.
  2. Post-hype sleepers 2018

    I mean, the direct point was that you called it the "percentage play," which is fairly definitive, and my point was that that opinion is based on how you perceive the talent particularly of the highly drafted player... but really if you're just going to focus on one clear hyperbole in the entire argument... then we best not even continue it. I think it's pretty clear what I was trying to get at, personally.
  3. Yusniel Diaz-OF-LAD

    I agree with the service time, and I think not having played AAA gives them an easy excuse. That said, Diaz's advanced approach makes me feel that they wouldn't be rushing his devleopment from an actual developmental stand point. Maybe I'm wrong--- but right now this doesn't seem to be a baseball player who's going to get outright abused.
  4. Mike Clevinger 2018 Outlook

    I don't think in my entire history of following fantasy baseball there's been a better divisional situation for pitchers than the AL Central, specifically from the perspective of an Indians' pitcher who doesn't have to play the Indians. The TWINS are the most legitimate offense you have to go up against. And they're a fairly legitimate offense (14th in Rs). The other three sit at 24th, 25th, and 30th in Rs in the MLB, as well as 12th, 13th, and 15th (so three of bottom four, minus Orioles) in the AL. Between that and what has been one of the most successful pitching/coaching staffs in developing pitchers over the past few years, anything with a pulse on the mound in cleveland is intriguing to me.
  5. Post-hype sleepers 2018

    At the end of the day this is the long and short of my point here. If you believe these things, then of course you won't like Collins. But it isn't more complex than these things. People like to talk to me about Collins and they like to use Dixon, or this, or that, or the other thing, to defend why they dont' like him... and plenty will argue it's not because of Collins. My point is just that it is. If you believe Collins was as talented and as proficient last year as I do, then we aren't having this conversation. I do not believe these statements are accurate portrayals of the talent I saw. Could be wrong. But that's my take. And these three statements, even in their proper context, are the crux of this whole argument. Not everything else said. EDIT: And I also feel it's important to note that, at least my interpretation of things, is that the Ravens are closer to my evaluation than the evaluation that "Collins isn't talented" and want to continue to see what they have.
  6. Post-hype sleepers 2018

    Definitively? I really can't. But I've seen both run the ball. Saying Collins is a better runner isn't really a knock on Dixon so much as it is heaping more admiration into what was, IMO, an incredible and underrated 2017. Sure. Personally, I believe that there's a difference between showing some traits and others. Collins to me didn't look like a good back, he looked like one of the best downhill runners in the sport. He lost two starting Guards before he was off teh practice squad. No one else could run through that line last year. But Collins did-- and he excelled. You bring up PFF, but PFF loves Collins. They may knock attributes of his game sure, but they ranked him as the 101st best player in the entire NFL last season. The majority of backs in that 101 (Gurley, Kamara, Hunt, and Bell) are going in the first round. They also majorly contribute in passing downs, like fellow 101 Dion Lewis. Collins doesn't as much, but if he dominates on the ground and through the trenches, which I believe he will, than 250+ Carries at a 4.5+ YPC and a lot of Red Zone attempts is what I would project. I mean of course it's not a vacuum. One RB is the starter, excelled last year, and from all indications I've seen is the easy favorite of the Coaching Staff, at least from anyone who knows anything about the Ravens. One RB is injury prone, had a suspension, and was an FCS pick at draft time. But for some reason we're hyped about him. Calling it the "percentage play" is just based on opinions and pointless. Is Bell's back-up the percentage play because he's going so much later? Of course not. Personally I see the avenue for Collins to being a big, fantasy stud to be evident enough that he should be drafted far before the late-4th/5th. I think Collins is more likely to win me a league and carry my RB1 slot than Dixon. So no, I don't agree with you that it's the "percentage play." I like Dixon. I like drafting both. One is vastly superior in pretty much every way I evaluate a player both in terms of personal talent and in the way I believe the organization sees that talent. I have no problem taking a shot on Dixon. Personally, most people who are high on Dixon, IMO, are high on Dixon because they don't believe Collins was that good last year. This is an opinion, but I believe that that is an inaccurate opinion, regardless of what you think happens this year. I think Collins was one of the best downhill runners, between the tackle, and short yardage backs we got to witness in the NFL last year. I think his spot on the roster is very guaranteed. But again, this whole debate started more-or-less on a simple question: if you believe that Collins isn't talented, and that Dixon is the preferred back... more power to you. I was just confused/in disagreement with the idea that the Ravens believe in Dixon or want Dixon more-so than Collins. I have heard that a lot this offseason. Never from anyone that has anything to do with the Ravens. I have spent significant time looking through Beat Reporters Depth Charts. They have Collins as the clear-cut #1. I have talked to friends from the area. They believe Collins is a borderline first round talent in Fantasy Football. Personally, I believe that Collins and pouding the rock with Collins is considered by the Ravens to be the "A-Plan" for beating down and wearing out teams in 2018.
  7. Post-hype sleepers 2018

    I mean you quoted believe but I used that word or a form of it twice in my own post, but the crux of what I was getting at is exactly what you ended up saying: do YOU not think they believe in him because YOU don't believe in him or is there a reason that comes from the team? Because I do think there's a difference especially in application. Seems to be like this stems more from your own, as I highlighted and you yourself said, belief that Alex Collins is run-of-the-mill. I do not, as well addressed in the Collins thread, believe that. And I do not believe that Baltimore believes that. I believe that they believe one of the best paths for offensive success this year is to run thru Collins. And I also don't understand what Dixon has done between two injuries and a suspension and limited time on an NFL field after coming out of LA Tech, a small program that have so many people thinking he's more talented than Alex Collins, a back who had 4.6 YPC last year with an inferior interior line. I don't get the appeal of Dixon or the lack of appeal with Collins. Modern Football Concepts run amuck IMO. Not to be the old man, but I feel like we may have gone a little too far when evaluating the pass catching running back at times-- in such a way that we forget that there is a difference between the way some players run and that that can have as big of a difference as if they catch passes or not. Collins to me is flat out more talented than Dixon. I don't care if Collins doesn't catch passes and Dixon does. One is a vastly superior Runner. One is a vastly superior talent as a runner. I'm not favoring Dixon just because he has a different dimension. And just FWIW, after 10/1, meaning for his final 187 Carries last year, Collins did not lose a fumble. It's definitely a big problem, depending on how much it surfaces. I think he can keep the surfacing down. And again, just for volume projections, Collins wasn't really "overworked" or "bellcowed" last year, but he had 132 Carries in the last 8 games. I have Collins looking at something like 264/1200+/7-9 this year, personally.
  8. Post-hype sleepers 2018

    Any particular reason for believing that Baltimore doesn’t believe in Alex Collins?
  9. Derrius Guice 2018 Season Outlook

    I do like Guice. But to me, the question to push him to the top of that RB-pack is not do I believe Guice can earn the job. It’s do I believe Guice can earn the job by Week 1, or even quickly work his way into the Job. I don’t know how good CT is. But it’s not implausible to me to believe that a player who played as well as he did last year will earn 40-50% Snap%, which is again considerably lower. If he does well in his time, he could keep it. I have no problem drafting Guice. I’m not afraid to do it. But comparatively to a couple others going around him, I consider CT a far greater risk to see snaps then other RB1/2’s backup RBs. So that knocks him a bit.
  10. Derrius Guice 2018 Season Outlook

    Two games under 49% lowest game 43% highest game 81%. Maintained 4.6/13.1 averages
  11. Derrius Guice 2018 Season Outlook

    If we're talking last year he was considerably more than 40%.
  12. Derrius Guice 2018 Season Outlook

    Sorry I haven't gotten back to ya boys, been moving. I like Guice a lot too. The question about dismissing CT though isn't about Guice completely. You can call last year an outlier, and it probably is. But the question to me is how I believe the Washington Redskins utilize their RBs moving forward. CT, as mentioned above, was an RB1 when healthy and averaged about 13 YP Reception out of the backfield. I'm not saying he repeats that. I am saying that (and I believe this with Jay Gruden as well) NFL coaches in general reward on-field performance when it comes to playing time. Maybe Guice does earn his way all the way up to a full time, 3-Down RB. But at the quickest I think it takes half the season. I don't think, barring health, that Guice is going to take some of the roles CT had last year when CT performed as well as he did on the football field. I think CT has a pretty large inside track to being a bit more than an average COP back. And frankly, I just still don't know how we can be so definitive that something closer to a 60/40 split may be more beneficial to the Redskins this year. So we'll see how it goes.
  13. Derrius Guice 2018 Season Outlook

    So how do you get around CTs great 2017 in your head? And this is a real question. Because every Guice homer seems to be completely dismissing the impressive aspects of CTs 2017.
  14. Joe Mixon 2018 Season Outlook

    I’m not missing the Forrest through the trees. I simply believe that poor coaching can hold down talented players. I think Coaching will hurt him per play, and I also think that he will see fewer snaps because I do believe Marvin still wants to rotate even if he has an “A” and “B” back.
  15. Joe Mixon 2018 Season Outlook

    Not necessarily. You have to be accurate in believing that the only reason he was held back at the end of the season was that he was a rookie. Personally I don’t believe Marvin Lewis runs a very fantasy friendly system for a back being a Bellcow.
  16. Joe Mixon 2018 Season Outlook

    Never was the conversation. I think the touch numbers are more indicative than the YPC numbers. He still hasn't seen a semblance of a role like you're suggesting he has. This is a borderline irrelevant point. Mixon doesn't decide when Mixon plays. Marvin decides when Mixon plays. I think, personally, based on what he's shown me as a coach, that this will still be a very split backfield. As I believe I said before, the signing/drafting of Mark Walton was distinct to me in saying they want to keep it at a multi-back system. Marvin's never ran a 1-back system that I can remember. Role hasn't been established though. The lack of role has been established. You can't argue that he established a 20+ touch role last year when two of the last four games of the season he had under 10 touches. He hasn't nor has any other Bengals RB I can remember had a role like that in quite some time. This is a multi-back system IMO, and I don't have enough confidence that they change from that and accurately call plays.
  17. Joe Mixon 2018 Season Outlook

    Last 4 Games: 26 Touches 165 Yards 1 TD 8 Touches 42 Yards 0 TDs 5 Touches 32 Yards 0 TDs 19 Touches 97 Yards 0 TDs 1 Fumble Lost Is "great end to 2017" even a fair statement to make? Personally I don't think so. EDIT: second best game in that stretch is 7.7 Standard, 8.7 PPR, and in Week 17.
  18. Joe Mixon 2018 Season Outlook

    We'll see. I don't trust Marvin right now to make a RB relevant.
  19. Joe Mixon 2018 Season Outlook

    I wanna say I have him around RB17ish. I have him ahead of Guice, but behind Penny. I like cuffing Penny with Carson, but I still like Seattle's potential at the RB position. And then behind Howard and Collins as well. I have him over all the other rookies, non Penny/Barkley. And right now I'm not jumping any of the other, lower backs over him either I don't believe.
  20. Derrius Guice 2018 Season Outlook

    If you want the good ya gotta do the grind.
  21. Michael Gallup 2018 Season Outlook

    Personally, I have Gallup over DJ Moore. Newton has never been an overly fantasy friendly QB either and Olsen and Funchess are much greater passing threats. Hurns is the greatest passing threat on the Cowboys, and Hurns and Gallup are both new players on the team. And Funchess is more talented than Hurns. And no one on the Cowboys will have an Olsen sized role. Zeke will run MORE, but Carolina's obviously going to run with McCaffery a lot. And he's going to take more targets. In terms of the first post regarding the Boys offense as a whole, I agree with you it may not be that great, but again, the bottom line for fantasy relevance is that you don't need to be great. You don't even need to be good. There's going to be positional battles on this team obviously. Yes Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley are incumbents. But they aren't talented. Maybe it's just that simple to me. You guys seem to be acting like Beasley and Terrance Williams are going to be strong and legitimate road blocks. Neither one is particularly talented IMO, and I don't think the Cowboys feel that way either. Terrance Williams' entire value is that he's being paid nothing. That shouldn't effect his playing time at this point. They're trying to win. Gallup is the biggest investment in their future at the WR position they have. There's nothing holding him back if they believe he is as talented as Terrance Williams. I cannot stress this enough. That mofo (Williams) can NOT catch with his HANDS. He has to trap every ball against his body. He has made bone headed moves at the last minute of games, I believe had an offseason issue this year, and again, I believe the entire theory of the Cowboys "liking" Williams comes completely from his contract. The Cowboys have an out before Williams' contract becomes more expensive next year. Do you think they pick it up? I don't think so. Once a player gets on the field, it's open season. There's not that much competition for this guy to get on the field. Unlike Newton, who has two trusted, established receivers, in likely sets with Hurns and Gallup, the best two WRs will both be new. The avenue for value for Gallup is just so much closer and more obvious than DJ Moore's. If you overwhelmingly believe in Moore's talent, by all means. But the Cowboys with two, not-that-talented Holdovers and a brand-new "X" in Hurns is THE best place for rookie volume. Gallup has to perform, but I just don't believe we should view him as the "4th WR" because he could be the second or first before the season even starts. There's not that much holding him back IMO.
  22. Derrius Guice 2018 Season Outlook

    It's more or less just this for me, at least in terms of that post. I'm not saying by that I think CT will see playing time, but someone willfully ignoring the possibility I'm not on board with. The threat is definitely there. If he did a 50/50, I don't think we should necessarily be that surprised. And I will say, in terms of that comparative pedestrian performance, CT didn't just play okay. 16 game pace was about 102 Carries, 470 Yards (4.6 Per), 62 Rec, 816 Yards, 13.1 Yards Per Reception, 9.6 Total TDs. That includes his 10th, injury game in which he was obviously removed early. But those numbers, particularly that 13.1 Yards per Reception, is not much to sneeze at. And I mean, 4.6 YPC while seeing an expanded role. And if you prorated that into fantasy points, that's 186.2 Points, or RB9 Standard. 217.2 Points, passing Fournette for RB8 in 1/2 Point PPR. 248.2 Points, staying at RB8 in PPR. So maybe Guice is going to see 70% of snaps. But if Chris Thompson played the last 6 games like he played the first 10, and finished as an RB1 last year, no one thinks this is a crazy argument at all. And this isn't a 4 or 5 game Deshaun Watson sample, this is a full 10 games. Not unreasonable to think he was going to be a top 12 RB if he didn't get hurt. So I will say ultimately I do think CT is a greater risk than the masses think. But my reasons for preferring other RBs to Guice doesn't have much to do with CT. And I don't have Guice ranked poorly by any means.
  23. Michael Gallup 2018 Season Outlook

    You make some good points, but ultimately what is the skill level necessary to create fantasy points? I get that they may not be studs. I get you may not like Dak. But similarly talented WRs and worse QBs have produced fantasy relevant stats in the past. I just don’t see why it’s not worth a late/end draft pick just to see if he can be the “X” WR and run with it
  24. Michael Gallup 2018 Season Outlook

    I mean I’m assuming they may have had a couple of guys. I’m just saying that in general I think their draft strategy was to pass in the first because they had faith in some of the mid round guys contribute as much. Considering their entire drafts lean towards PFf, it’s no surprise Gallup went to them. And personally I think they got their guy.
  25. Derrius Guice 2018 Season Outlook

    Jersey he’s in looks like it says “LSU” to me. Meanwhile another back on the team had a 50%+ time share on this team last year. Im not saying whether or not or how much CT eats into Guices workload. But being dismissive of CTs talent and ignoring how he’s been used by this team recently isn’t an accurate portrayal of the situation. CT is absolutely someone who could steal numerous snaps from Guice early in his career and it should surprise no one if it does indeed happen.