• Announcements

    • tonycpsu

      Comments on New Forum Design (UPDATED with workarounds)   02/12/2019

      We are aware that the current layout of the Rotoworld forums is not going over well, and we feel your pain.  Please direct any comments about the new look of the forums to help@rotoworld.com, or to this thread. For those who are able to install user styles, (e.g. with the Stylish addon for Firefox or Chrome), you may wish to try a couple of user-created alternative styles. RW Forums Tweaks by tonycpsu Rotoworld Forums Dark Mode by sngehl01  

taobball

Established Members
  • Content count

    11,657
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    90

Everything posted by taobball

  1. Joe Musgrove 2019 Outlook

    I'm confused on what you mean by pushing him down? His ADP is 267 on Fantasypros right now and I have no reason to believe it'll be very variable this offseason. Regardless, to make a simple argument, he had a 4.06 ERA, 3.92 xFIP, and 3.59 FIP in 2018. The low Strand% (69.2%) is probably the reason both systems project him to do better. But the main difference between his xFIP and FIP is that the former regulates HR-rate more. So if you believe that his 0.94 HR/9 and 10.2% HR/FB% (neither of which are EXTREME outliers by any means) can be sustained in PNC Park, then it isn't crazy to see something closer to that FIP number coming a reality. 7.80 K/9 isn't great, but it isn't terrible. Low BB/9 should keep his WHIP low. Personally, I buy into the HR-suppression. Had a change-up and slider that performed admirably at least in SLG Allowed last year, so I'm not too worried about the depth of his repertoire. As you said, 125 or so innings in the past, which is a more than fair argument. The counter to that argument is... that his ADP is 267.
  2. San Diego Padres 2019 Outlook

    Manuel Margot is the guy Pitcher want to see in CF i'd say. Franchy Cordero isn't terrible either. Jankowski is a utility player.
  3. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Heyman gets so offended when you call him out. but wow is it so obvious once you pick up on it or are told about it.
  4. Joe Musgrove 2019 Outlook

    I like him as a sleeper this year. Did a great job of avoiding Walks while not getting hit too hard last year. ERA might have been over 4, but even at 4-Flat its a hard thing to do to completely live in the zone like Musgrove did last year. PNC is excellent as you said. I could see the ERA improving at least half a run, and he'll give you good WHIP with that BB/9 and a 7.8 K/9 is far from putrid.
  5. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Sure but you're ignoring history if you go with this argument and just stubbornly stick your foot down on it. Price got 30 AAV over 7 at 30 YO. Scherzer got 30 over 7 at 30. Grienke got more AAV over 6 at 32 YO. There's a going rate for elite pitchers. Sale has been as good if not better at times than that list. If you're saying an AAV record shattering 4 / 165, maybe I see it, but there's a going rate for an elite player/pitcher, and to pretend that he's going at a price you're suggesting if he had 31 Starts at his 2017-2018 level this year is folly. I'm not saying you're right or wrong about what SHOULD happen, as that is an entirely different beast of an argument, but pretending that Sale is going to get a deal like Corbin or like you suggest is silliness, plain and simple. He'll get 200 Million if he repeats this year into next.
  6. Amed Rosario 2019 Outlook

    well I'd prefer him batting 9th to 8th, NL Or AL, if they put the pitcher 8th. But to me it's not an argument of "What he loses" so much as "What he doesn't gain," if that makes any sense. Maybe it sound like just semantics to other people. Like Amed stole 24 last year but did so on 35 Attempts (69% Conversion), and only hit 9 HRs. So I don't consider the power+speed output to be overwhelming. But you add so much to it by putting it at the top of the line-up. You all-but guarantee every opportunity for the SBs to go up. You get the most opps to his HRs. You get the best line-up behind you for R production. At the bottom of the line-up it is pedestrian. Like yes, I do see a path for Amed to steal 24+ Bases again, but ultimately to me it's more of a variable range at 8th, and an almost guarantee from 1st, if he happened to be lucky enough to get that opportunity. Amed might steal 24 but I dont' have the confidence that I would otherwise because of line-up spot and his own Conversion rate last year. The BA is highly variable to me and the HR / R / RBI will be bad. Not worth it without the upside of 40+ SBs, and I don't see that here either.
  7. Amed Rosario 2019 Outlook

    In a 5x5 league, 80% of stats are counting stats, and 100% deal with volume in some way, so I don’t think it’s just a value killer “counting stats” wise, depending on how you define that. He just seems like a lower order bat to me *shrugs*
  8. Cesar Hernandez 2019 Outlook

    Hernandez has a great, low-key skill-set for the lead-off. Speed and OBP. I love him there, and hear the trends going in that direction. I'm thinking he'll be a good ADP value.
  9. Maikel Franco 2019 Outlook

    Eh— depends on what peripheral you’re talking about. Basically I think you’re saying more that he has a good K%... at least from what I see. Hes never had a good Hard% or Soft% on fangrapjs. Pops out a lot. Pulls the ball a lot. I don’t like Franco.
  10. Amed Rosario 2019 Outlook

    I think it is where he should hit, and it is a value killer.
  11. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    And I think, while I personally question the rotation to be at the HIGHEST level of the sport, they have one of the deeper farms for a team ready to compete with the players not on that list, and should have the ammo, whether I'm right/wrong, whether it be pitching/hitting, to potentially fill those spots by July 31st.
  12. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    I think it's somewhat warranted... but people don't respect how quality the acquisitions they've made have been this season. They need a pitcher to win more than anything IMO, but their line-up will be scary with or without Harper.
  13. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Those moves were funny because of the relationship, but I'm shocked at how many people don't think those first two players are quality baseball players who will do better than what the White Sox were likely to play and had almost no acquisition cost. I guess people wanted to see more Adam Engel.
  14. Cesar Hernandez 2019 Outlook

    Eh. I love Hernandez more than most, but I’m not as confident that he’s a player you’re going to get value on if he’s hitting 7th or 8th. I think he’s a huge steal, but I do think that’s contingent on him keeping the lead-off spot.
  15. 2019 ADP

    Shouldve said this also more directly: im a big “steals in 5x5 Guy,” as in I love getting a guy late, but what I really want to do is build a team that competes in SBs without having to sacrifice around the board. Having said that, I think Trea Turner is way overpriced. Like I’ve had him there for years. But he didn’t attempt nearly as many steals last year under new management. I mean I think he might’ve attempted fewer steals last year in 162 games than he did the previous year in 98. The upside is still there of course, but the % chance Trea Turner shows a true outlier season, like .280/20 alongside 60-80 SBs, took a huge hit imo this past year. There’s a big— huge— difference between 50 Attempts per Season and 100 Attempts per Season, and Turners attempts rate went down that drastically per 162 games this past season.
  16. Wrote this on the Reds thread. Figured looking into his 2nd Half improvements would also be a nice way to start off his own thread. Bad park, but an improving team. If they don't bring in a CF I might be a bit concerned with the OF defense unless they plan to play Schebler everyday V. RHP in CF, or if they're luck with a defensive experiment working in CF. I don't think you can have full confidence even in improvements because of his Up & Down career so far, but certainly highly encouraging.
  17. 2019 ADP

    End February / Beginning of March. Detailed questions can find their way to my PM box. It'll be mentioned in my Signature when it's finished. I am actively working on it. It's higher than I am, which is significant, but I don't get why after last year Whit and Trea are viewed so astronomically differently. .304 12 HRs / 45 SBs for Whit, .271 19 HRs / 43 SBs for Trea. Whit is probably my favorite SB target in drafts right now. His age is a bit of a concern but he ran excellent last year. Love the BA, and many seem to be pushing him down in drafts.
  18. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Do you know much about RFA in the NHL? Because my roommate (a hockey guy) just explained that to me the other day and RFA in the NHL is an utter and complete farce. I think the lack of cap is why I'm trying to convert RFA systems to Arbitration. Because I do actually like arbitration. I like it a lot. I think the system could be a lot better, but ultimately it is a great way to get a good amount of money with team control / no market. It's just that 6 years is WAYYYYY too much. The problem with 6 years, at least IMO, is that it is set up to protect teams against the HIGHEST possible outcome-- i.e. preventing Mike Trout from hitting the market at 23-24 Years Old and signing an actual 500 Million dollar contract. But even a COLLEGE player, who has to spend 3 years prior to joining the draft, is 21 Years Old typically when he's playing in A-A+ Ball, which means he could go from Draft to MLB and not make the open market before 27-28. That's nonsense. As a Cubs fan, it's nice to just own Kris Bryant's entire prime, but as someone who ROCKETED through the minors, and was immediately successful, the fact that he's not a FA until I believe 30 is kind've ridiculous. That's why I think I've been bringing Hockey in-- as messed up as the Hockey system is, I like the flat age being determinate on when you mature to being a UFA. I think you can still give teams a "Rookie Contract" when they first reach the majors, so that Whit Merrifield doesn't spend three weeks on the Royals and then hit Free Agency in any theoretically situation, but other than that I like a flat age with arbitration I think the best.
  19. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    I like RFA systems. I have one proposal similar, however without RFAs. I believe similar actually to Hockey, but with Arbitration instead of RFA. Teams get three years min same as now. Players are then arbitration eligible until a certain age (say, 27 or 28) at which point they become UFAs.
  20. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    A bit different though. I believe Nola's deal bought out two years of FA while Severino's buys out only one with an option. Severino's deal really isn't even as team friendly as it seems, by comparison. It limits both side's risk. But for the Yankees, Severino would've been and arbitration player the next four years anyway. The only real risk he's taking is hitting the open market at 30 instead of 29, while insuring himself a lot more guaranteed wealth and insuring that he structures the deal to get money in case of a lockout in 2021. Like i'm not saying it's not team friendly, but the open market is all that matters, and proximity to that open market. The Yankee's victory here isn't 5 years / 55, it's the 1 / 15 at the end that they can use to keep him from the open market if he's a stud. And for Severino, he's not turning down the ability to make 100+ Million. He doesn't have that ability to begin with, not for another four full seasons. He's just delaying himself getting to the open market. Market proximity is the most valuable thing a baseball player can have. Nola and Severino were pitchers whose market proximity was 3-4 years, so they took safe contracts to make sure their bodies didn't fail them before they had a chance at a payday. Severino in particular didn't hurt his chances for a payday too much, if he can stay healthy and performing. Just one lost year.
  21. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Based on his fWAR in his career I actually think I could (and have twice in this thread) argued the opposite.
  22. Jeff McNeil 2019 Outlook

    I would argue damn near 100%
  23. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    I mean whether or not it's overrated depends on who you're talking to. Many people have a vastly different view of WAR. As far as an incomplete look at a player, I agree it is incomplete. But it is also more complete than any other metric.
  24. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    How does Goldy top Segura by a mile? From what aspect of the acquisition? Overall value? Goldys more valuable but it isn’t by a mile. Segura has a 5.1, 3.0, and 3.8 WARs on FG last three seasons GoldyS 5.0, 5.2, and 5.1. Don’t think that’s unfair. Segura is an incredibly valuable hitter at an incredibly valuable position. Goldy is a better hitter but at a far less valuable position. You can also read this multiple ways, but Segura would be closer to a 4 WAR with 155 games the last two seasons. In terms of price? Phillies didn’t lose much at all. They lose the chance that JP Crawford turns it around and is a good-BA SS who still likely hits 10/10. A poor man’s Jorge Polanco. Price for Goldy was good too but was it as good? Or better? Not imo. And also in terms of dollars, you’re committing to Segura, but you’re risking that Goldy walks. There’s not a guarantee here whatsoever. I buy they can do it but no guarantees. People don’t give Segura his due respect. At SS, I cannot at all be confident in saying the Goldy Deal was much better. As a real life GM, I would view Segura and Goldy closer to evenly in the next three years, with perhaps a slight advantage to PG.
  25. Corey Seager 2019 Outlook

    Fair enough, but I honeslty still don't agree because I think we're viewing the BA differently. Like I don't think Scouts missed at all. I think Seager could have the rare ability to generate a REALLY high BA. I see that in the swing. I see that in the batted ball profile. I see that in the fact that he's consistently posted ridiculous BABIPs. I see that in him just needing modest improvements v. LHP. I also think there's ceiling in the power. If Seager ranges from a .305/26/90/95 to a .315/30/100/105, he'll be one of the best players perennially in fantasy baseball regardless on if he steals 3 or 4 bases or not. And I still see that as more-or-less a realistic long term projection. Maybe this isn't the year to project him that high, but this is also potentially, in my opinion, the last year you see his ADP so low. So yes, I will be investing quite a bit.