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Everything posted by taobball

  1. Sure. But surface numbers are entirely past. The point of literally everything that an analyst does is the future. I'm not making the argument that Aguilar was bad last year and never have. I made the argument that he was overpriced and overrated coming into this year and that pitchers have been adjusting to him more and more. Maybe that's wrong. Maybe that's right. But that's what I believe. Also "saber" is such a crude bulking of concepts. You can call it whatever you want. I don't think of myself as a "Saber" guy or a "math" guy. But between watching baseball and writing numbers, the latter is much more easy to communicate concepts with than "I've watched him and think he's got some flaws." I don't really think Saber covers pitch-specific, but I've never really cared about what Saber is either. IN 2018 (BA) .371 v. 4SFB .288 v. Sinker .163 v. Change .188 v. Slider .214 v. Curve I'm out, make of it what you will.
  2. I think I said "just as." As in I find them equal arguments. It all depends on what you choose to believe in. That's my point. FWIW, none of these surface numbers mean anything to me. He's a fastball masher who sucks on off-speed and breaking and that's why I've been down on him since June 2018 🤷‍♂️
  3. That's not really true. We're just looking at different selections differently. I think it's just as unfair to take his Aug-Sept alone and project out. He had a .770 OPS in July and September. That's not likely to get it done agaist the bats behind him.
  4. jorge polanco missed a HR against Giles there by about two feeet. Almost got reviewed down the foul pole. Dude's locked in.
  5. This. September was far better than July on many surface stats but he still was a .770 OPS. That's not great for 1B. As a whole, he struggled late last year.
  6. I mean let's also be clear here: Flaherty was like my SP30? It's not like I shat the guy down to SP54. I just thought his price at SP20 is ridiculous. To many he was a safe SP2 with upside of being a low-end SP1. I've seen bold predictions that had him winning the Cy. To me he was an SP3 with chance to become an SP2 but chance to also fall back to an SP4. His stuff is nasty. He's just not a pitcher right now. He's a thrower. He's learning & improving, but it's a process.
  7. This is the complete wrong lesson. Players need to be evaluated individually. If your reaction to this is to remove every second half swoon from your draft board, you're making a grave error. I'm not going to say what "the lesson" is either, b/c Aguilar is still on the roster (i.e. not Pivetta) and it's April 18th. And that statement could be an error for me.
  8. (After completion I decided to move this to the Lowe thread b/c I realized I said nothing at all about Jeff McNeil. Didn't look at Lowe too deep particularly this season added until this so most of what I found was in the process of discovery in this post). Hard to say completely, but in the generic I see Lowe as obviously being a better HR+SB guy, but also having a fair number of pitfalls. Even in his current SSS where he's been incredibly powerful, he has a 19.9% Swing Strike% and a 31+% K%. Those are mammoth percentages, especially the former. I do believe he can survive at 31% even potentially, but 19.9% is indicative of a rate much WORSE than 30% if it is at all representative. His Career SwStr% thru a fairly significant 210 PAs is now 18.3%. To put that in perspective, Gallo was at 18.4% last year. I'm also a little concerned about some other things matching up in the profile. Like he's a very high Pull% and a low O-Contact, meaning he's neither pushing the ball nor covering pitches outside the zone very well. He had a 39.2% O-Contact in his small sample last year and a 39.6% O-Contact in his small sample so far this year. The worst qualified O-Contact in baseball last year was 45.5%, so he's significantly behind and the similarity of his Small Samples is a bit concerning, despite again their relative smallness. And a 55% Pull% (2019) would be a league leader and his career number would still be ~20th and in the 89-90th Percentile. So plate coverage is a real concern for me. Defining concern as usual not as "This IS a problem" but rather "This COULD BE a problem, and I'd like to see a *bit* more evidence that it is not." He also seems to be (SSS) a poor breaking ball hitter right now. Career v. Fastballs (BA/SLG as Slash): 4SFB: .322 / .729 Sinker: .304 / .436 Career v. Breaking Balls (BA/SLG as Slash): Slider: .167 / .191 Curve: .105 / .316 Now obviously these samples are minute but they are massive in their scale of difference. So far this year Lowe has had relative success on ABs ending in Sliders (3 1Bs, 1 2B, .267 BA) but that relative success is accompanied by a .500 BABIP on the pitch and 7 Ks in 15 ABs, so likely an unsustainable level of production. He could obviously improve on those pitches throughout the season but by unsustainable I mean he's not going to keep striking out 7 out of every 15 ABs v. Sliders and finish with a BA much north of .167-.200 on those pitches. He's gotten a few HRs on April Fastballs but the more I look at the profile the more I see someone closer to the "adjust or die" area. He'll either make adjustments throughout the year, prove some of these small samples are fluky, or collapse in on himself a little bit as we get further into the year because of these Swing Holes.
  9. I feel like that window closed with this start.
  10. Polanco BB and 2B 2Rs thru first two PAs. Dude needs more loooooovvveee
  11. Firstly he hasn’t been replaced very often this year. The most recent occurance was a blow out where everyone was pulled. But more importantly you’re changing the argument a bit at the end back to the generic. You could be right on McNeil for sure. No doubt. There’s a chance he’s more solid than great and a heavy BA player. You’re choosing what you think is relevant, I’m choosing what I think is relevant. It’s simple. What youre not right about at all is the insinuation that McNeil or ANY hitter in baseball would be better off hitting 6th in their lineup opposed to 1st. That’s just inaccurate. It’s wrong. If you want to disagree or try to prove it to me you’re more than welcome. But this is not opinion: batting lead off is better than batting 6th. This argument is so silly I can’t even believe I’m taking time to discuss it. Batting lead off is better than 6th. Period. Any skillset. Any player. Period.
  12. Can you at all explain to me how losing 100 PAs over the year by batting 6th would be MORE beneficial than leading off? There’s opinion, and then there’s false statements. Leading off as opposed to batting 6th gives him a ton more opportunities and puts him in front of the best hitters in the lineup. This is simply wrong.
  13. So who is starting Sunday have they brought someone up yet? Miami better for fantasy numbers, worse for getting to discover Bieber. And no doubt. I don’t take disagreements the wrong way unless they come from a negative place. Plus Jorge Polanco and Jeff McNeil are life. You’re not hating/loving my real boys. He’s got talent and does a lot of things well. I’m just still waiting to see if he does enough things well this year. The curve has yielded much better results and could effectively even splits a good deal. But I want to see that with good lefties is all.
  14. I mean what’s draw conclusions mean? I think it can surely influence whether or not you start a pitcher v an offense. I’m not throwing out righties v the twins right now, for instance. Don’t know how long that remains true but unless your name is (various Ace) than you’re being benched if RH.
  15. Doesnt necessarily mean that you should ignore small early season trends. Astros started off very slow and didn’t really start doing damage until a week ago. A cold team is a cold team🤷🏼‍♂️. I don’t think theyre cold anymore tho
  16. ...especially when he’s hitting ******** .400
  17. Eh.. define subpar. #170 is a signfiicant value based on where he was drafted in most leagues I play in. Changing line-up spot would certainly fix part of it. I mean we're talkinga bout measurements of Feet. He has a triple off the top of the wall in the year. If hit it 1 FOOT further, he'd be pacing over 12 HRs or around 12 HRs right now. He's running. We'll see. I think the main point is that making a big deal abut two weeks and as if he's going to finish with 0 HRs and 0 SBs is just a little silly.
  18. The “been better the last week” thing i do think is worthy of mentioning. They started slow and have been playing much better. They JUST saw him. It’s a tough matchup and league dependent.
  19. We get it. Don’t need it every 12 hours. We’ve gotten thru the talking point a few times.... Its April 15th or w/e. It takes 10 bad pitches in a season to hit 10 HRs. He had 10 HRs+SBs last year in just over 60 GP. Patience.
  20. Yeah I honestly might have to drop Wheeler a few spots. I don’t get crazy about restrictions but Wheelers usage has been dumb. Pitch Counts reverse order: 109 111 103 95 which wouldn’t be bad if he had a 3.00 era, but they’ve been forcing him in games while he hasn’t been... good. The 103 game is the Philly game and I would’ve had him out of there easily at 88-92 after that first walk in his last inning.
  21. Y’all thought Wheeler was done lol. Don’t you know the Mets have a 100 pitch minmimum?
  22. Hopefully he’ll start batting 1. Alonso / Ramos / Conforto is considerably more than the 7 / 8 / 9
  23. If you’re okay to below average against a handedneess, even the lesser one, you can survive. Chacin isn’t great v Lefties and wasn’t all last year. The problem is if he truly is really bad. If he threw a changeup I’d be more likely to buy it. A change is the ideal way to handle the split. Curve is alright, but his Curve at least last year wasn’t a bread-and-butter pitch like his slider. If his Curve turns to a great pitch, with great command, he’ll probably be fine. If he can’t spot it, his Fastball isn’t great and a slider has bad splits and is in general a tough pitch to throw against the opposite hand. Hitters can’t sit on anything if you can throw a Curve/Fastball with above-adequate command. I don’t necessaily believe he did that as consistently last year. Its a numbers based argument because thats what’s easy. The numbers v LHH jump off the page. But it’s the logic that I care the most about. If he threw a change it would be different. If his rep was different it would be different. But it isn’t, so it’s not. And lets also be clear: I didn’t bury him. I had him short of ADP, but I like AL Central pitchers and I think there’s upside here. All I’m saying now is essentially there’s very little that has happened this season that should change my viewpoint. He hasn’t been tested the way I need to see him tested and that’s all that matters to me
  24. I don't disagree with what you're saying on the surface about ISO. But I love ISO. ISO is one of my favorite metrics and I think it helps tell a true story even here about how Miguel Cabrera is hitting. He may have a good hard%, but as you say: launch angle. Dude's a complete worm killer right now. 51.2% GB% is Ghastly for Cabrera. Last year in his small sample it was actually a worse 54.6%. But ignoring that small sample, the worst it has EVER been in a Tigers uniform is 44.1%, and even that is high for a career that seemed to set right around the 39-41% mark for most of his prime. Like (and yes, I am force feeding Jorge Polanco in other threads) in his thread I went on about how Jorge Polanco has hit 6 GBs** this year and 35 LD+FBs and has a rate of 70.7% of his batted balls thus far in the year being Medium-to-Hard hit Line Drives or Fly Balls. Pitches/BIP you do damage on. (His ISO is, not coincidentally, a robust .340). By my count, Cabrera actually has an equivalent BIP number right now for my sample at 41. Whereas Polanco has 29 BIPs that are Med-Hard, LD-FB, Cabrera has 18 (44%). That's not *that* bad and is maybe a bit higher than I expected going into the evaluation. He's making Med-Hard Contact on 90% of the balls he does elevate, which is a positive even if there aren't many of them. What again makes the numbers look worse is bringing back up the GB numbers... in raw count, again same sampling size, Polanco has 6, Cabrera has 21. 21 GBs for Miguel Cabrera in 41 BIPs is disgusting. (ISO helps shine a light on that). In terms of Pulling the ball, Cabrera has Pulled ONE Flyball this year. ONE. UNO. Now I understand he doesn't necessarily need to pull the ball to have power, but there is a reason that the vast majority of hitters create more power to the pull side. Cabrera, whether intentionally or not, is not pulling anything in the air. That's not very conducive to HR conditions. It's early, he's always hurt, and he could adjust... he's miguel cabrera. But there's quite a few just straight-up awful things in the profile right now. He's got a bad K% and K/BB especially for him and he's not elevating at all. His BA is floating at a modest level with an incredible BABIP. BABIP may be sustainable for Miguel but if he needs a .360 BABIP to get to a .260 BA now... that's asying something. The Exit Velo is miraged by the GB%. Hard hit GBs are more likely to be singles (and we see that in his robust BABIP) maybe even down teh line doubles, but far more often than not they don't do much damage, which is the entire point of EV. I wouldn't recommend dropping, but I also wouldn't have recommended drafting. So for me it would depend on who was on the wire. If you (not OP, general) made the decision to get Miguel, you should probably stick to it because the upside-- not floor-- is why he was drafted.
  25. Fun. xwOBA to put in terms is "Expected Weighted On Base Average." Unless you're a mathematician, don't concern yourself with how Weighted metrics or metrics that end in a + are calculated. Just know for stats taht end in + (OPS+, wRC+) league average is around 100, with 80 being -20% and 120 being +20% production. I'll link wOBA below, but .290 is considered by Fangraphs to be the bottom threshold titled "Awful." So an Expected wOBA of .284 is essentially an expectation by this metric of being worse than awful. EV is Exit Velocity. Not much to explain there, simple MPH. 88.8 MPH average exit velocity. 166th Right now among 300+ Qualifiers. Not awful. But worth noting that it's not special either. K% is K / PA. What is a bad K% nowadays is hard to say. A lot of players K a lot more. But 30% is bad. You can get around it and you can be successful despite it, but 30% is essentially 195 Ks in 650 PAs. At 33.3% hes staring at 215-220 around that sample. Lots and lots of Ks. And Ks regulate quickly. HR/FB% is self explanatory. Out of the number of Flyballs you hit, what % clear the fence. 22.2% HR/FB% can go both ways. Good power hitters have good HR/FB%s. But high HR/FB% is also a telltale regression sign. Especially if it seems unsustainable for the player or for his career based on what we know. High Hr/FB isn't a concern for me personally for Soler (but all the Swing-Miss / K stuff is). Hard% is just Hard Contact%. % of Balls in Play you make hard contact in. 33% isn't bad but isn't special. Same as 88.8 MPH. League Average changes a lot. Most of the time, if you're on a fangraphs page and haven't messed with it in anyway, like Soler's, you can click on a button that says "Averages" in about any table and it will put what League Average is/was alongside all the metrics in the table. Fangraphs is incredible. 16.7% SwStr% or Whiff% as I colloquialize it more often is the amount of Swings-and-Misses you have divided by the number of total pitches you've seen. So he's Swung-and-Missed at essentially 1/6 pitches so far this year. Most hitters hover around 10%. Good contact guys can get all the way down to 5%. Again, what you can get away with seems to be changing every year, but 16.7% is very high. Anything above 14-15% is a pretty big red flag to me. Anyone in that range, even players I expect to be successful, I expect to be successful while striking out 30% of the time, and having a not-great BA. Correlation between metrics and relationships are far more important, so understanding these individuals is like... 1/10th of the battle. But hope this helps both for Soler and in general.