taobball

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Everything posted by taobball

  1. You're creating a 1-to-1 comparison where there isn't one. I didn't say "Miley is a top 30 SP go run out and get him now." I said he had the potential to limit the damage against an Oakland lineup IN Oakland, a cavernous ballpark. Bieber is being pushed up and up rankings from top 30 to top 20 and even some crazier numbers being thrown out. No where did I or have I ever even said that Miley would be more than a streamer in a mixed league. If I put Miley and Bieber on the exact same plain, "Streamer in a Mixed League," which do you think I'm going to hear more complaints about? Miley? Or BIEBER? I'll tell you right now it's bieber. You're talking about the difference between an argument that says "This guy sucks" "No he's not that bad" and one that says "This guy is one of the best pitchers in baseball and is breaking out" "He's not really that good" and ignoring that difference. That's a huge difference. I like Miley a bit because he has done a really good job of keeping the ball in the park the last year+ and with his high GB%, that could easily lead to an effective starter.
  2. Also: If Shane Bieber pitches better this year, it does not retroactively make him "more unlucky" last year. Narratives get written by victors and if that's what the narrative becomes then that's what the narrative will become, whether I like it or not. But even if he plays his way to a Cy Young it doesn't mean that it happened because "Luck shifted" as opposed to him making changes to improve himself and cover up those blemishes he had from the year previously. I don't know if there's a way you can convince me that him turning Lefties into HOFers last year was luck, even if he's standing on a podium at the end of the year. If his Curve functions more as a "Plus" pitches than simply a "Third Pitch" as it has so far this season, we'll see where he lands when the dust settles. But I don't believe he was unlucky last year, plain and simple.
  3. I thought for a second he may miss the braves, but with an off day on Thursday and Monday looks like CLeveland might be going 4-Man for the time being. Hopefully he starts against the Braves and not Miami. The Braves should at least help build the sample quite a bit, one way or the other (Inciarte, Markakis, Albies (S), Freeman)
  4. Sure if anyone adds a Change-Up that is average to above to their arsenal it changes their arsenal. But he's not throwing one / throwing one much and the results, while inconclusive, aren't exactly what I'd want to see. To put it in a raw count, he's thrown roughly 150 Fastballs, roughly 150 Breaking Balls, and roughly 15 Change-Ups. So not just 10:1 but 10:10:1 when it comes to Change-Up usage. Hasn't gotten it hit hard yet, but also only has 1 Swing and Miss and more than 50% of the Change-Ups he's thrown have been ignored as Balls. The real difference so far and the difference that seems in the early going to define the year moving forward is not the Change but the Curve. THe Curve is his pitch to neutralize lefties it seems. That pitch has been far more effective in the early going. And it's certainly a fine repertoire if not ideal to throw a Quality, commanded Fastball + Slider + Curve. But it's not ideal, he allowed a .310+ BA v. LHH last year, and he hasn't FACED tough lefties consistently. It's the consistently that really changes things too. Quality is one thing, but even if they were higher quality, he's faced mostly scattered lefties this year. Goodrum bats fourth, a little later you deal with a S... Brito Leads-Off, a few righties between him and Tellez... Why the Twins are a match I'll be glued to regardless of result is that the likely lineup is Kepler (L), Polanco (Batting L), Cruz, Rosario (L) just to get things started. The individual quality will be interesting to see, but more so it'll be how many times can he make his "best lefty pitches" and if he can make them consistently enough to make it through a line-up multiple times that stacks lefties at the top.
  5. I mean If he was hurt it’s easier to IL than to Option. Protected Options are limited before you have to pass thru Waivers and you can get a rehab assignment if you need tuning in the minors after the phantom injury. Opinion makes it clear to me it isn’t an injury .
  6. Dont sleep on Miley. 🤷🏼‍♂️. Hes been a weird amalgam of luck so far. Insane HR/FB%, but also high Strand%. I really like the stuff but I’m nervous about this quality of hitter seeing his young stuff and fastball twice so close together. Luckily for Montas they are mostly Right Handed.
  7. No. Can you name the quality lefties he’s faced this year? I’ll do the experiment for us since it’s been 3 GS. First game was Toronto. Smoak was out looks like he faced Brito, McKinney, and Tellez. Second was Detroit. They didn’t even play CStew. Candelario is technically Switch but blew chunks v RHP last year. That leaves Niko Goodrum? Seattle in start three is clearly the best lineup he’s faced, but even that’s a lineup more-or-less defined by its righties. Haniger/Santana/Encarnacion are the heart. Bruce / Smith / Gordon are the lefties. Two have better feet than bats arguably. One has a sub-.200 BA. Hell get a bunch of great matchups in the AL Central so maybe that’ll be enough to carry value. Until he consistently beats good lefties he won’t have taken the step I need to see. He hasn’t done that yet. You couldn’t make a lineup of good lefties with all three opponents combined. I’d consider Niko Goodrum the toughest out of the bunch. Niko, btw, was 1-2 with a BB and SB before Bieber was pulled in their encounter. Someone can bump me when he plays a legitimate lineup (Mariners still bleh to me comparatively despite hot start) with legitimate lefties. Till then, DGAF. I want to see him play the twinkies. When does that happen?
  8. You're gonna drop a .400 hitter? Have fun in your 6-Team League. like not to make a comment that so many have thrown out for th elast twenty years... but holy crap if I'm playing in a league so shallow I'm contemplating dropping a .400 hitter... I mean that's just insane to me. The fact you have an account on this board means you should be in deeper leagues. I get WHY people are watching him saying "power isn't there." But I think they're wrong. And here's why: because hitting 12 HRs doesn't mean having an incredible consistent Hard%. It means seeing 12 s--- pitches, and hitting the bejeezus out of them. McNeil is a great approach hitter. When he's down in the count, he knows how to defend. But I also believe that, when he's UP in the count, if he's 2-0, 3-0, 3-1... he's not going to be looknig for a GB single on the Oppo side. He's gonig to be looking to do damage. He already has a 3B this year that was a few feet away from clearing the wall. You only need 1-2 HRs per month really to get to 10+. I'm not asking him to hit the ball hard everytime out, just turn on 10 pitches in the course of a year.
  9. I wanted to expand on this. 3 BIP today. The first AB was a Flyout to near the Warning track. It was deep enough Kepler thought he could tag up from 1st to 2nd. Probably not "hard" hit, but almost certainly not "soft." 2nd AB was the CRUSHED HR. Definitely a FB. Almost certainly "hard." Third was a LD, very sharply hit, and once against certainly not "soft." I also forgot to make mention, and it is technically a small factor, of the 2 Bunts Polanco has made this year. He's actually bunted down the 3rd base line twice for HITS this year. But more importantly for this conversation, that means that out of the already minuscule 8 GBs he's had this year, 2 of them have actually been completely intentional. Adding todays game, and removing the bunts, that's 41 Balls in Play with 35 FBs+LDs and 29 FBs+LDs that are Med-Hard. That means that, when he is TRYING to SWING at the ball, he has elevated the ball 85.4% of the time and hit the ball MED-HARD alongside that elevation 70.7% of the time. Now don't get me wrong: There's a difference between "not a fluke" and "can do this forever." But there's NOTHING that's a fluke about how Polanco is absolutely hammering the ball right now. I don't care at all that his BABIP is ridiculous so far. Elevation + Solid Contact on 70.7% of BIP alongside a 15.0% K% is absolutely nuts. Polanco has an incredible eye and an incredible contact ability. I thought he would transition them into a bit more of a subtle breakout. He's decided to utilize his eye and contact and focus solely on finding pitches he can elevate and hitting the bejeezus out of them. I had him #90 against an ADP of #220 and I'm still impressed by what he's accomplished thusfar. I think the power he could put up this year is SIGNIFICANT. i don't wanna put a number on it but that's more because I think my number has potential to be ridiculously high. I love what he's doing right now. I had him as a solid-to-plus BA, 15/15 to 20/15 type character. I could see him translating his skills into a LOT more power moving forward. Shades of some indians infielders here.
  10. One of my favorite preseason aspects of Jorge Polanco was that he has a very rare combination coming INTO the season of low Whiff% and high SLG% on 4SFBs. He seems to get around on pitches fast and puts the bat right on the ball. This breakout feels so legitimate to me and we have a thread of crickets. K% keeps trending downward in recent games. Now 15.0%. Took a walk without striking out last two days. BB% now at 8.3%. His eye is immaculate. Don't care if anyone wants to debate or disagree with me on that one. He follows pitches incredibly well and seems to do a good job with location. And he's just looking to do an insane amount of damage whenever he can right now. Pitchers are trying to be more selective and I think it has lead to him taking more pitches and walks the last few games, insetad of caving in on bad pitches. With Cruz and Rosario behind him, I don't think being pitched around is a great fear for me. Especially with some speed to add to the basepaths whether we have seen it so far this year or not. I mean coming into today Jorge Polanco had put 40 Balls into Play. 32 of them were LDs or FBs. 14 of the 32 were "Hard Hit" balls via Fangraphs. 26 were Hard or Medium. After today he has 9 XBHs, a .340 ISO, and 3 HRs. If he keeps elevating like this don't be shocked if we see a real power breakout. This dude is smoking the ball and cursing groudnballs.
  11. Just wanted to quote myself first because I'm not sure what all I've said. To me, if there is (and there is) one player that I've physically changed a great deal on my rankings from March 1st to today, it's Yoan Moncada. (I'm removing some Tatis Jr.-esque exceptions for reasons that should be obvious. To be clear, I'd prefer Moncada > Tatis Jr. in redraft, but I also had Moncada considerably higher than Tatis Jr., who I presumed would start in AA-AAA, heading into 2019). To me personally, the parameters of the question are just a bit off. Firstly, this one is a bit semantics, but I never really project "BA" in-and-of itself. I guess the most accurate statement would be there's a missing step in my brain equation in the question, because I'm looking for just the change in K%. The change in BA will come with a massive change in K%, so I'm not even really concerning myself with the raw number of what Moncada's BA is / should be so much as just justifying the change in K%, which right now sits at ~9.1% better than last year. But more importantly, I'm focusing on a different contact metric for Yoan Moncada. Whiff% is fine but it is flawed especially if you're looking at raw bat-to-ball skills which is what I'm looking for with Yoan Moncada. To put it anecdotally, if you're looking fastball, and you think you see fastball, and then you swing at a Slider two-feet off the plate and miss, that doesn't really say anything about your CONTACT ability. I mean you could argue a better hitter can foul off more pitches, but the point being made here is that location effects swing+miss a lot. Part of the reason why Moncada's Whiff% is as high this year as it is last year is that he's chasing a little bit more. Which, for someone who took so many backwards Ks last year, is probably not a bad thing. And if i'm not concerning myself with his eye, even if the BBs are a bit down, I'm more interested what he's doing on SWINGS on pitches IN THE K-ZONE, which is virtually the definition of Z-Contact and why Z-Contact is one of my favorite advanced metrics there is. His Z-Contact last year was 79.8%. When I made those two posts about 10 days to 2 weeks ago, it was around 87+% if I remember correctly. The Whiff% was actually 8% and has risen since then. But the Z-Contact has remained strong at 86.2% now that the sample is almost twice as big. The only real way you DON'T improve significantly if you cut your K% is by hitting far fewer HRs / having a reduction in your quality of contact. Moncada hit his 4th and 5th HRs, and his 43.5% Hard% / 6.5% Soft% going into today don't exactly suggest that he's had any sort of reduction in his quality of contact. His Z-Contact improvement and approach of attack could cause him to walk less, but as a whole he's displayed a good eye in his career. I don't care necessarily about bb%. I care about selective-ness. If you swing at good pitches and make good contact at them, you may not walk much. Moncada walked a lot last year but also took a good deal more pitches, and presumably took a good deal of good pitches based on the looking Ks. He'll ahve to toggle his aggressiveness but that's what being a baseball player and making adjustments is about. Showing that he can make that adjustment in-and-of-itself is everything to me. Z-Contact for Moncada is trending down slightly, but I don't think it falls too much further south, and at worst is still going to finish as a significant improvement over 2018. Many say to wait for samples to mature and that's nice and fine and dandy at all but no one trades breakouts with mature samples. You think its hard to trade for Moncada now? Imagine if we're sitting here on May 20th and he's still hitting .300 and not striking out as much. Sample Size shouldn't be a crutch. An uber-talent made tangible, physical changes in things like his hand position and swing and has shown a direct increase in the early season in creatnig Contact in the Zone without sacrificing the ability to do damage. That's glorious, and while players do stumble on hot streaks, doesn't really happen too often by accident IMO.
  12. He can't spot the Curve very well. He can spot the slider okay, but he doesn't throw either pitch consistently for strikes enough. Hitters can sit back on fastball, foul off a lot of fastballs in the zone, and wait to walk or get a mistake. IMO, he needs to work on adding a wrinkle or gaining much more command with his breaking balls and throwing them for strikes if he wants to take steps forward this year.
  13. Jorge Polanco absolutely destroyed one against Sanchez.
  14. Is it really a better lineup? Probably a little but Twins doing well to start the season.
  15. Thats what I don’t get. He threw exceptionally well last year. I saw on MLB Gameday 100 MPH FBs and 95 MPH Sliders. He doesn’t need to add that
  16. If anyone joins this thread and sees this first post, I became much more excited about Polanco throughout January. I love how much he's putting the ball in the air this year. Legitimate potential/upside.
  17. Glad someone posted. Didn't wanna be the one to bump the thread again. People sleeping on this boy HARD. He's gonna at LEAST kill righties all year.
  18. You can bench v. elite Lefties, I wouldn't bench him ever v. a RH starter.
  19. Jorge Polanco 2-2 triple v DeGrom 😍😍😍
  20. The second half of his blow up / the manager letting it happen was inexplicable. He should’ve finished the night having retired 8-9 in a row and then giving up a walk. Keeping him in after one walk was weird. After two was crazy. After THREE and allowing him to walk in a run is absolutely bonkers. As if Wheeler has a 100 Pitch MINIMUM. Especially in a game where a guy factually does not have it and you were lucky to recover the way you had. Bad game but should not have had the second implosion. That was piss poor managing
  21. Yeah but did you see once he had runners on 2nd / 3rd no out? Still an incredible job of execution. But ya know plenty more starts to go.
  22. Clevinger's freaking insane man.