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RotoRaysfan last won the day on May 1 2015

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  1. Melvin Gordon 2016 Season Outlook

    To be fair to MGIII though, his YPC is partly due to his limitations (only thrives in a power scheme run-wise), and a huge part due to the O-line deficiencies. It also means he isn't likely to improve unless the O-line play improves. In that respect, if Dunlap can return, and the rookie Tuerk can replace their C and even be league-average, that would be a big boost. But those are big IF's. Long-term, it's good to see they invested in Tuerk (as C was truly the worst position in the league last year), but upgrading on their T's next year should be a priority (Dunlap is actually quite good, but cannot stay on the field). It's just that MGIII's volume guarantees a pretty safe floor for this year, especially in PPR, with no competition around. No one should confuse him with talents like Hyde or Gurley (who are in equally or even worse situations speaking redraft - ironically, their redraft arrows are also moving way up as they are getting the "MGIII treatment" - pass work now being added with the bellcow work), but where the situation killed MGIII last year, now the situation actually is what keeps him a pretty safe bet for 2016, barring injury.
  2. Melvin Gordon 2016 Season Outlook

    Re: MGIII, as usual, the truth lies somewhere in between those who doubt and those who believe. A few observations: 1. MGIII YPC is terrible. And his TD dependence is a HUGE red flag to his future outlook. There's simply no way he can keep this up. It's not being pessimistic, it's the truth. You can bank on 25-30 percent of your points being TD dependent if you get all the RZ looks and GL work as a RB. Gordon's is well over 40 percent. Over time, that doesn't keep up. 2. MGIII is NOT a fit to run out of the pistol. He's a power-scheme, I-formation back. When he has Watt in front of him, he's way more effective. It's no coincidence that he's done well in that formation. 3. He can't put the ball on the ground. All the good he's done goes away if ball security becomes an issue again, like it did last year. Those are the 2 major cons, and 1 future concern (fumbleitis can't come back). Now for the pros: 4. He's clearly doing well in pass protection, and he's doing very well as a pass catcher. You want to ensure a high floor as a RB1 for the ROS in PPR leagues? Get 5-6 catches a week. McCluster will get some work, but clearly MGIII isn't going away as a pass catcher. That's a huge safety valve for his ROS PPR value. In standard leagues, yes, you should worry. I hope they use MGIII out of the pistol more for swing passes - there, he could be very dangerous. Screens and safety valve work are a great way to get guys out in space on teams with bad O-line play - we're seeing SF do it with Hyde and LA do it with Gurley, no coincidence. Great to see SD keep feeding MGIII this way as well. 5. He's also still the main guy in the RZ, and he's getting the bellcow AND Woodhead work. Volume is the one way you overcome other concerns. One only need look at Carlos Hyde (really talented, no support whatsoever, teams key on him - but getting volume helps overcome that) to see the parrallels. I'm not debating who's the better RB skill wise (I'd actually think Hyde is), but they are literally option 1A, 1B & 2 when it comes to RB touches on that team. 6. Most importantly, SD's O-line isn't great overall (frankly being league average would be awesome) - but it's a LOT better when King Dunlap is back, and Fluker is healthy - Slauson isn't good, so I'd hope Max Tuerk is their long-term answer, but not having Fluker at 100 percent, and no Dunlap, it's coincided with SD's drop in O-line play, and the drop in run production. They are set up to be a pretty good power run blocking team when Dunlap, Fluker and Tuerk start (pass pro for Tuerk & Fluker aren't nearly as strong). Dunlap & Fluker return, and you see a MUCH better power run team show up. Now, you also need to use the power run game, and that's on Whiz & McCoy to stick with all game long, especially when they have the lead. I can't blame them if they want to go pistol if they have no faith in the O-line that's there right now, but if Dunlap is starting and Fluker is healthy, then a power based run scheme should be their 2H bread and butter in close games. All in all, MGIII is the #2 RB overall through 4 games. There's no way he can keep that type of production up being so TD dependent. But he's also got the volume, RZ & pass-catching work to ensure a RB1 ROS performance seems very bankable. Obviously if you can get top 5-6 RB value for him in a trade, awesome. But thinking he'll just crash to earth and not be usable, that's too far the other way, too, at least for this year, with the lack of other RB options SD has. In other words - if you aren't getting a premium return, no need to sell high - if you need him to be one of your top 2 RB's, start him with confidence, realizing he's not going to be the #2 overall RB ROS - but top 10 seems very safe with health in PPR, given the volume he's looking at. Standard, yeah, there's more to worry about, for sure, but in PPR, just be happy you have him, if everyone else thinks a huge fall is coming. For a guy everyone was writing off before the season began, gotta still count your blessings - as long as SD invests in a power scheme (and I suspect they will continue to address O-line next year either by FA or draft), then MGIII's outlook only gets better. For this year, given the lack of competition, the O-lines weaknesses are real, but MGIII's volume certain gives a PPR floor that's a soothing balm.
  3. DeVante Parker 2016 Season Outlook

    I'll own the miss here - Tannehill was the one x-factor that could go awry, and it did - he was just awful. Not just for Parker, for all the WR's. Stills got open on a broken coverage, but otherwise Tannehill showed zero pocket awareness, and couldn't get the ball out - Landry & Parker were open but it required anticipation to get the ball out as they made their breaks. When you've had 4 weeks and all of preseason, no excuses to be that late. Still, I'll own the miss here - we all know Tannehill is the X-factor that decides how well MIA's WR's will do. Tonight, it was snake eyes. Ugh.
  4. Dez Bryant 2016 Season Outlook

    Ah, gotcha. Yes, I misunderstood, but all clear now. I do think the 4 week estimate is less likely, but with elite athletes, they can push the envelope - bone healing hasn't been one of the areas where youth & elite physical traits has translated nearly as well, though.
  5. Dez Bryant 2016 Season Outlook

    It's the risk of re-injury that's key here. Just because Dez played with it doesn't mean he's fine going forward. Hairline or not, it's a fracture in the tibial plateau, which is crucial in load bearing and mobility. It can definitely get worse. If it depresses the plateau beyond 5 mm, then it's surgery, and all the long-term risks that come with it, and a 10+ week recovery to boot. Knowing the above, the decision here isn't rocket science. And to be really clear, tibial plateau fractures requiring surgery, that's a completely different animal in terms of recovery - that's a greater risk to compromise long-term performance, than letting this settle down, not re-injure it, and heal non-operatively. It's the only study around, but NIH-sponsored study on tibial plateau surgery recovery reflects the severity of the injury if you need to operate (and yes, it's only 11 professional or competitive athletes out of the 80+ studied, but that's still very sobering news if you need surgical treatment). If Dez & co. can stay away from the knife, it's crucial to his long-term outlook. Some injuries require pain tolerance only, there's no risk of worsening the original problem. Sadly, this isn't one of those cases. Frankly, I suspect this is more gamesmanship on DAL's part - trying to get SF to gameplan for Dez. Rappaport's reporting here isn't great, given the diagnosis. Knowing the diagnosis, to repeat - no sane team doctor will clear him this week. And not until the fracture is completely healed. The silver lining is that as long as he doesn't re-injure it, the outlook isn't nearly as gloomy as if he required surgery - but that also means the Boys & Dez would be nuts to risk re-injury by returning too soon.
  6. Dez Bryant 2016 Season Outlook

    Rappaport's track record of late isn't stellar. This is NOT one of his better moments. If it's a tibial plateau fracture, he's out until the bone is fully healed. Even the Football Guys Doc quoted in the RW daily update article and Dr. Chao are unequivoval - the conclusions drawn by the writers are the problem here. They're reading into the "location is important here" - and missing the fact that now that the diagnosis is clear, the info on recovery becomes very clear. The speculation on shorter times was when people thought a grade 1 MCL strain was going to be the diagnosis - tibial plateau fracture is pretty clear that you can't return until the bone's completely healed. Dez & Jerry's statements are just classic stage 1 of grieving process when you get bad news - denial. The fracture involves the tibial plateau - which puts a huge risk on re-injury with playing until the bone has healed. Surgery, 10+ week recovery, risk of joint arthritis with surgical intervention in his 40's (fantasy owners don't care, he should). No sane team doctor will clear him. If the diagnosis is a tibial plateau fracture, there is no other outcome but Dez out until the bone heals. The safe bet is 6 weeks. A fast healer, I suppose 4 weeks is possible, but as we've seen with most players who have a fracture, 6 weeks is the median time seen.
  7. Wendell Smallwood 2016 Season Outlook

    Guys, let's get back to Smallwood. No need for personal potshots, and honestly, people can be accountable for their past opinions, that's how everyone learns, but let's also know when to stop beating a dead horse, or split hairs. This isn't a request, it's part of the the CoC. The posts in question & their replies are now invisible - but as we've had nearly a page of back and forth on who said what in the summer, let's also move the discussion forward.
  8. Wendell Smallwood 2016 Season Outlook

    Smallwood is just a redraft lottery ticket, but consider this: 1. Pederson is a more aggressive version of Reid (at least from a scheme/play-calling perspective). Thankfully. 2. 2 RB's can thrive in a scheme like this. Shady & Sproles co-existed in a big way. Sproles is the guy who has the highest floor, but he's already mostly owned by now, because everyone knows this. The Q is who the other RB that can eat is. 3. Yes, Mathews is the lead dog. A really gimpy lead dog. Over-under on staying healthy should be counted on 1 hand. 4. And yes, Barner is there. But Smallwood's game profiles better in the long run in a Reid based scheme - it's why PHI drafted him. And yes, there's a lot of competition here, and a lot of uncertainty as a result. In redrafts, he's the last guy on your shallow bench. In deeper redrafts, he's a lock to keep - because if Mathews did go down and stay down, the payoff could be huge. There's also a ton of uncertainty - but if there was certainty, well, he wouldn't have been available in the late rounds/WW, either. In dynasty/long-term keepers, this is the Phi RB you want to own (but most dynasty owners would have determined this at draft day).
  9. DeVante Parker 2016 Season Outlook

    Listen, I get the ThuNF concerns - but a few observations: 1. MIA just can't run the ball. They really can't. That will force them to throw. 2. CIN is really good at stopping the run. They stuffed my Broncos run game badly. Going run-heavy is unlikely to be Gase's plan. 3. Cameron is hurt, and Stills got a lot of work because CLE paid a lot of attention to Parker. That could happen again - but honestly, CIN's CB's aren't playing that well (the rain/wind helped them limit PIT). DT & Sanders crushed them. Parker & Landry should feast. 4. CIN is going to do OK vs. MIA D, which means both teams are going all out. 5. The one reason MIA could struggle - Tannehill. In the end, he's got to get the ball out early, and take a few shots downfield, like Siemien did (FTR, Siemien only went downfield past 20+ yards 3x - he just happened to go 3/3 on Sunday). There are a lot of ThuNF duds - but you have to look at the context of why that happens. Teams often try to go run-heavy, and play-call conservatively, because their linemen are beat up, and they want to survive. In this case, MIA is 1-2, they need this W badly. Combine it with MIA's lack of run game, CIN's ability to stuff the run, and I'm very happy to start Parker as a top 30 WR play this week. There's always risk, but the ceiling is sky-high here. The biggest variable is Tannehill, but that's not changing - if you drafted Landry & Parker, it comes with the aspirins you should take before watching Tannehill play.
  10. Melvin Gordon 2016 Season Outlook

    Re: SD O-line, they lost King Dunlap who didn't play, and DJ Fluker was dinged up, missed time in & out of game. Max Tuerk wasn't there for depth (but he's not a starter...yet). Their O-line is good when it's their front 5, a really solid power blocking unit. When those 2 are out, not so much. That's what we saw yesterday. And yeah, MGIII was outstanding in pass pro - that's how you stay on the field. That's going to be key when he plays DEN 2x - get those dumpoffs, and screens - 10 pt PPR floor. More of a risk in standard, but in PPR, his value is actually higher, given he's seeing pass receiving work, and doing well in pass pro. The worst part was that Rivers missed MGIII for at least a 10+ yard gain on the right flat, then had the gall to scream at MGIII (it was Rivers' fault all the way), then missed the screen with 15 yards to go to paydirt, 3 blockers and no defenders (he had to rainbow it over an incoming DE, but he bailed out, not completely a choke job like the first, but that's on Rivers too). In PPR, that was 10-11 points minimum (and the first could have been a 25 yard TD too, so possibly as much as 20 points left on the field by Rivers). Given the above 2 factors (O-line play will improve with those 2 back, Rivers miscues hiding what was a very good pass protection/receiving day for Gordon), and once Bosa joins, a stiffer run D to let Bolts have more TOP, if the O-line and MGIII stay healthy, easy top 10 RB in PPR for ROS IMO.
  11. New England Patriots 2016 Season Outlook

    This x 100. Watt's still a force, but not nearly up to 100 percent yet. Still give the full nod to BB for neutralizing the rest of that HOU D (Mercilus, Clowney, McKinney, their CB's), who have been able to dominate even with Watt not close to 100 percent, either, the first 2 games.
  12. New England Patriots 2016 Season Outlook

    First off, I tip my cap to the legendary coaching ability of Belicheck. No one can argue his greatness - he just outcoached 2 supposed contenders, who came in and fell flat on their faces in both games (ARI & HOU). As a hardcore Broncos fan, nothing but respect. At the same time, while I hope Brissett is fine long-term, I do hope he misses the next game and Garrapolo be unable to go - because I'm waiting to see what BB would have up next to get another W in the books. At this point, I'm wondering if the opposing teams are better planning for Brady - because they're whiffing on playing for his subs so badly right now (and I own Brady, so I'm not suggesting Brady's worse, just that teams are clearly guessing wrong on how BB is going to attack their D, or how their D should attack the new QB, where I think everyone knows where Brady hurts you, and where he's vulnerable). The other reason I want to see this - if Brissett & JimmyG couldn't go, and then Brady comes back Week 5, that would be 4 different starting QB's in 5 weeks. I don't anytime that's happened where a team could go 5-0. Obviously, anything can happen, but with BUF/CLE as the 2 opponents, not hard to see NE at 5-0. With 4 different QB's starting, that is probably unprecedented. Again, hats off to Belicheck. I'd hope he'd settle down and not be quite such a PITA about injury disclosure, but I've resigned myself to the fact that's his way of getting back at the NFL for what he likely perceives as an unjust penalty to Brady. Basically a big flip of the bird to the NFL injury reporting policy - which he's always done, but has taken it to ridiculous heights as far as non-disclosure by over-disclosure of questionable tags. Now he gets to be 3-0, 2 easier matchups coming, and Brady on the way, and Dion Lewis down the line.
  13. Adrian Peterson 2016 Season Outlook

    Repair means 3 months best-case, 6 months worst case, and given yesterday's news on the bucket-handle tear, the only choice available. No doubt AP is banking on his elite freak like recovery skills from past injuries, but man, at 30+ and that much mileage, 3 months would be a great outcome. Would be a great story to see him come back and play for the Vikes before he finds a new home in 2017, but for fantasy redraft purposes, yeah, he's done.
  14. Adrian Peterson 2016 Season Outlook

    Well, if he's the only guy you can drop, sure, point taken. But then you have to make the decision off best info - and if it's a bucket handle tear, agree 100 percent. It's just dumb if teams have spots to make moves, to not wait a day. But I get some leagues have short benches, such is life.
  15. Josh Gordon 2016 Season Outlook

    Doesn't even need to go that far. It's a bench warrant for a civil case, so not a felony (some of our justice system members confirmed already). just shows very poor judgment, no need for this kind of negative press when you are still suspended. That's a more legit worry, for a guy who can't afford to make 1 more serious mistake in judgment. That's a fair concern, especially in keeper/dynasty leagues. For redraft purposes, though, Week 5 still a full go for return.