RotoRaysfan

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RotoRaysfan last won the day on May 1 2015

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  1. AJ Reed - 1B HOU

    September playing time will not net a super 2. No, but it makes gaining an extra year of FA very difficult with every day he plays in 2015. If the Astros let him sit all of 2015, they can basically sit him just under 3 weeks next year and get the extra year before FA hits. While HOU is in win-now mode, they have always been smart at the business angle of service time too. A potentially bigger issue is that Reed isn't even on the 40-man roster, so they'd have to cut someone to make room. Now, in fantasy terms, we always look at guys on the 40-man roster and say someone can be cut, but in real-life terms, those 40 guys usually have more value to organizations than we see. Given the above, seems way more likely the late April 2016 ETA is in play. Guess we find out tomorrow (when there really is no reason to hold him back if they are thinking this year - if we don't see it, doubt we see anything until the 'Stros get 1 more year of service time under their belt next season).
  2. Rafael Devers - 3B BOS

    The BB rate says he's not close to MLB-ready. Which is more than OK at 18. The success despite the BB rate shows how good his contact skills are, and the emerging power hints at a very high HR ceiling. Batting eye is one of the most difficult skills to acquire, so the earlier he develops this, the better - right now, he's not facing enough competition to really make him pay - that won't last as he climbs the ladder to High-A/AA, though. And, the number of players who succeed without being selective enough to BB at even a fair rate in AA/AAA (10% is the "standard" ideal) to the Big Show is very, very low. The fact Devers is succeeding at such a tender age at the level of competition speaks to how special the contact / power / approach is. It just also means he's got 1 more element to add in - at that age, though, no reason not to be excited, just realize that he looks to be 2+ years away even if it all comes together. Ceiling-wise, though, can't help but be really excited.
  3. Jorge Mateo - SS/2B NYY

    Probably because you can run wild with raw speed in A-ball. And you can get on base with bad D's a lot easier. From the sounds of the scouting reports, his approach at the plate needs work, and he's still not elite at his reading/jumps. He's not getting caught because he's uber-fast. Again, that doesn't work nearly as well once you hit the Big Show. Given how many SS have graduated, after the obvious suspects (Seagar, Crawford and a rising Arcia), he's part of an exciting crop of SS's (Albies & Torres stand out, not sure if Guerra's power spike is just a product of his home park or not). He's likely go the highest ceiling out of all those guys simply because he looks to stick at SS and a 10-15 HR, 60+ SB is gold at that position, but the hit tool / batting eye are the most exploitable weaknesses hitters can have as they move up the ladder. So I get the tempered enthusiasm. A major difference in Mateo's favor is that his hand-eye coordination for contact looks strong - so at least he's not a swing-and-miss guy by skills, and has at least average pop (so he won't get crowded by OF's cheating on his bloop hits like with so many speed-only Punch and Judy hitters) But until the approach catches up, it's hard to see him as a lock - but the ceiling is so tantalizing you can't ignore him, would be shocked if he's not on the preseason top 75 lists (somewhere in the 60-75 range would be my guess). But calling him elite, given where his weaknesses lie, and the competition he's faced, I understand why the lack of elite buzz is there. Having said that, if you don't have him by now, the cost of acquiring him is skyrocketing (it's one thing to not be elite, but quite another to not have him, or have to acquire him).
  4. Victor Robles - OF WAS

    The thing is, if you are succeeding at Low-A ball at age 18, that's pretty special. Killing it in GCL at 18 is impressive too - but there's more variance, and it's certainly seen a fair bit. But if he continues this success at Low-A, the age at level of play really has to be taken note of. When you add in the fact that his body can only fill out for more power, and his body type (long, lean) often allows this, I can see the excitement. The exciting parts besides the plus power potential are his plus speed (which could always go down as he fills out), and his patient/advanced approach. The hardest skill to learn is batting eye/approach, so to be advanced in this area is a huge plus to his outlook. There's still the floor that he busts out - but the likelihood with health gets a lot lower if your hitting approach is sound. If he keeps this success at low-A at 18 and is playing A+/AA next year at 19, the helium watch is going to be nuts. He would likely be the youngest guy next year at the Futures game. Given the number of times he's appeared in midseason chats as the most likely guy to ascent post-midseason rankings in low-A/rookie ball, now is the time to get him. Just realize that he's literally 3 years away - and that means busting is always possible - but the ceiling is sky-high.
  5. Jorge Mateo - SS/2B NYY

    This is low-A - so he's got to make the jump to Hi-A, then AA/AAA. And there are clear flaws to his hitting skills at this stage (low BB rate, no power), that will get unmasked even more at higher levels. If he was up by 2017 it would be a huge bonus. 2018 way more likely. Frankly, you want him to get all of the issues straightened out in the minors - a Billy Hamilton level SB guy at SS is gold. Give him the Reyes skills in other areas (XBH's, .avg) with Hamilton SB-ceiling (I realize Reyes used to be that guy too), well, wow. But literally miles away, and a couple of major hurdles to cross. For now, one can only dream at his ceiling (but the floor is still uber-low, too).
  6. Jorge Mateo - SS/2B NYY

    At work, so rather than re-type from the 2015 Breakout thread (which only lasts a year)... Mateo may not be showing any power right now, but it's the projection of average power, and the ability to stick at SS, and his age at the level he's playing at, all of which really separates him, given he has legit bat skills, and true 80, elite speed. A true SB-overall-leader ceiling with the potential for 10-15 HR at SS? Truly elite ceiling. Just keep in mind it's literally 2-3 years off at the earliest.
  7. Lucas Giolito - SP WAS

    I would just love to see him and Strasburg go back-to-back in a meaningful short playoff series (say, 2016). ETA mid-2016 after Super-2, hands down best stuff in the MILB by far. True legit ace ceiling. FB and curve are already plus-plus pitches. Very good control, now just needs a little more command (which should improve now that he's 2 years post-TJS, last year he pitched under the 18-month window when full command returns IIRC), and the change is actually already OK - but it could be an actual plus pitch. If that happens, well, that's just unfair...but would be fun to watch. Most likely finishes year with AA, and then gets the AA/AAA treatment next season before post-Super 2 callup, if it all goes to plan (and so far, he's gone exactly as planned post-TJS). Nats gambled big, and hit home runs big-time with Rendon (when he fell to them) and then Giolito (mid-1st with TJS risk). That's how you build dynasties, hats off to their scouting division (Stras was a lock pick, so can't say they were brilliant, just in the right place at the right time there, but I digress).
  8. Rafael Devers - 3B BOS

    BOS sometimes gets a rep for overhyping their prospects - but they really excel at international scouting. They pegged Hanley, and then pegged Bogaerts as the next big guy since Hanley. Then they profess love for Margot & Devers last offseason. In between, they haven't really pushed international prospects nearly as much bat-wise. While every team tends to overhype their own guys, the track record, his discipline, and the performance at age 17, the floor is very low, but the ceiling is elite. Invest now, if you are in dynasty leagues and can wait out the 2-3 years it will take for him to reach the Big Show if it all works out.
  9. New Board Rotation Schedule

    Forum order has been changed based on the changing pattern of traffic volume in the Forums - Admins have indicated baseball is now 3rd in Forum overall traffic at this time of year as the other sports ramp up their draft season (hoops is really gaining in popularity it seems), hence the change in order.
  10. NL & AL Only leagues - Why? Rationale and Support?

    Is there even a way to do that in like yahoo or espn leagues or do you have to have some other less used system? It's a standard in paysites - CBS, Fantrax & OnRoto all have that feature.
  11. NL & AL Only leagues - Why? Rationale and Support?

    I understand now the why for the first time. But playing in a 16 to 20 team (or more) mixed league does the same thing. After playing in an AL only league two years ago that became one first and last adventure into Onlyland. Too few owners to make trades with. Too few teams to play against. So I prefer a deeper mixed league myself because I like it harder to find the players and an interesting FA pool full of possibilities more than names. And plugged into all of baseball and not just half of it. So since you can get those same values in mixed leages, is it that Only league owners prefer fewer teams in a league? I could see it if a league was built just around some friends in real life. But if not, is there any reason then the one above to prefer it? In the old days when there was no inter-league play and less access to games from the "other" league in a person's viewing area and the net was still very young, It makes sense. But now everyone pretty much can see any player any time or at least do good research on them. Also what Bud said about trades to another league. That must be horrible for the owner of a Fister or Trumbo (or an actual consistent hitter, just grabbing a guy on the fly). Plus in season trades would be really rough. Having played AL-only for 20+ years until last season, I can tell you that having a smaller league with owners you know was the main driving force at that time. Plus, remember that a smaller league also allows a lot of them to do LIVE drafts, or live auctions - which is still the most fun way to draft - it's just logistically difficult, if not impossible to get 16+ owners (even 12 is a challenge) to be available at the same time. Plus, to reiterate a point I alluded to in 2012 - I'd rather play in an AL-only league with 8 owners who are all active and committed than play in a 16-20 team mixed league where 5-6 owners mail it in (along with live draft logistics, those are the 2 major points in favor of keeping AL-only or NL-only leagues). Re: being traded away to the to the other league, most sites allow you to count the stats of players in the other league for the rest of the season. It sucks from a keeper perspective, but there's no reason why trades should affect the outcomes for the current year anymore. Those are antiquated rules, well before advances in league scoring tracking allowed players to stay as counting (for the first 10+ years, most FFB stats were done by HAND from Baseball Weekly monthly stat calculation. ).
  12. Brett Anderson 2013 Outlook

    Ah hell... How do you strain your RIGHT trapezius muscle...as a left-handed pitcher? That update can't be right if he was pitching - was he at the plate when this happened? If it was on the mound, a contralateral injury would be freakish.... Collision at 3rd base. Well, truly unfortunate, and since it's not his left arm/side, hopefully a quick recovery...hopefully.
  13. Brett Anderson 2013 Outlook

    Ah hell... How do you strain your RIGHT trapezius muscle...as a left-handed pitcher? That update can't be right if he was pitching - was he at the plate when this happened? If it was on the mound, a contralateral injury would be freakish....
  14. NL & AL Only leagues - Why? Rationale and Support?

    The main reasons to do AL/NL only have been pointed out. But I think the key point deserves repeating: 1. Better to have 8-10 committed owners in an AL/NL only than 12-16-20 where 6-7 guys are not as involved. Frankly I'd rather be in a 8-team AL only than a 12-team mixed if it means having 8 hardcore owners. 2. Depth of knowledge is rewarded. It doesn't mean mixed league 12-teamers with <300 total players require less skill - but it does require less roster depth awareness, unless you expand rosters significantly. And yes, you can increase roster size to counter the difference and narrow the gap. Frankly, when looking at format, most people look at it the wrong way IMO - people spends hours arguing about best formats - the best format is the one that fits the people who are playing in your league. If your league is made up entirely of hardcore baseball fans that want to watch every game and have every game mean something - and you ONLY have 8-12 owners - play AL-only or NL-only. Way better than finding 4-6 other owners who are more casual. If your league is more casual knowledge/commitment wise in ownership makeup (friends-only, work) - don't do a league format where you have a crazy separation in knowledge. That won't be fun for everyone - and eventually the league will either die or a major change in ownership makeup will be needed. If you can get 18-20 committed owners, then go nuts with a mixed league if you want to - but that's a tall order, too. Frankly, it's more important that each league figure out the format that gives the most fun and the best balance of rewarding knowledge vs. providing a format that doesn't separate the smartest owners from the less experienced/knowledgeable ones to such an extreme owners have no shot to compete. Of course, that also means having a solid & committed group. And that begins with figuring out your league-mates interests & values. Again, give me 8-10 committed owners over a 12-16 team league with 4-6 less involved owners every day of the week and twice on Sundays. I've played AL-only for 20+ years - had a blast playing in 8-10 team formats. But it's more about being a league you enjoy & owners you enjoy competing against. My 20-team, 500 MLB & 300 MILB player dynasty league is as much fun, as is my 12-team, 336-player redraft league - because of the ownership is just as hardcore in both leagues. That's the key to depth/skill. Choosing the format that allows you to have/keep the best ownership and not dilute a league with a gap between owners' commitment is the bigger lesson I've learned. If you just want a social league - nothing wrong with any format. If you to go deeper with a small number of hardcore baseball fans - go AL/NL-only. There is no doubt AL/NL-only requires more depth of knowledge - but it's the skill/experience level of your ownership that creates the real sense of satisfaction of doing well.
  15. Pitcher Value Touts

    I agree on the points about Buchholz & Hellboy being overvalued, and I think Buchholz will likely be somewhere around a top 30-35 pitcher - but he's going to be drafted as a top 20 SP (although it's finally starting to head down), so there's little value to be had. Both will be great long-term plays (as Buchholz's progression is coming, and Hellboy is just starting at the MLB level with great tools & makeup), but the redraft ADP so far is killing their value for 2011. Re: Hamels, I was down on him to start 2010 value-wise, until he developed a 3rd pitch. Well, he did a good job of that, and also found more velocity (which was unexpected). I do think he's going to be undervalued slightly, but I don't put as much stock into the 1st vs. 4th starter angle, for one simple reason - other than the first couple weeks of the season, and then the first 10 days or so after the All-Star Break (when teams reset their rotations), many teams are not in sync rotation-wise. Because of different days off, pitchers being pushed back, being the Opening Day starter might mean you face the other team's ace 9-10x - but it's not like a playoff setting, where #4's face #4's, etc. I do think people look too hard at W's and #'s beyond a pitcher's control, so guys like Hamels & Tommy Hanson are going to be undervalued somewhat - but because they play for contenders, that nudges them up, and negates some of the difference. I just don't put as much stock into the #1, #2, #3, #4 slotting. I do think #5 makes a difference - but because of the risk of skipped starts and being pushed back from a 2-start week into a 1-start week.