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RotoRaysfan last won the day on May 1 2015

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  1. AJ Reed - 1B HOU

    September playing time will not net a super 2. No, but it makes gaining an extra year of FA very difficult with every day he plays in 2015. If the Astros let him sit all of 2015, they can basically sit him just under 3 weeks next year and get the extra year before FA hits. While HOU is in win-now mode, they have always been smart at the business angle of service time too. A potentially bigger issue is that Reed isn't even on the 40-man roster, so they'd have to cut someone to make room. Now, in fantasy terms, we always look at guys on the 40-man roster and say someone can be cut, but in real-life terms, those 40 guys usually have more value to organizations than we see. Given the above, seems way more likely the late April 2016 ETA is in play. Guess we find out tomorrow (when there really is no reason to hold him back if they are thinking this year - if we don't see it, doubt we see anything until the 'Stros get 1 more year of service time under their belt next season).
  2. Rafael Devers - 3B BOS

    The BB rate says he's not close to MLB-ready. Which is more than OK at 18. The success despite the BB rate shows how good his contact skills are, and the emerging power hints at a very high HR ceiling. Batting eye is one of the most difficult skills to acquire, so the earlier he develops this, the better - right now, he's not facing enough competition to really make him pay - that won't last as he climbs the ladder to High-A/AA, though. And, the number of players who succeed without being selective enough to BB at even a fair rate in AA/AAA (10% is the "standard" ideal) to the Big Show is very, very low. The fact Devers is succeeding at such a tender age at the level of competition speaks to how special the contact / power / approach is. It just also means he's got 1 more element to add in - at that age, though, no reason not to be excited, just realize that he looks to be 2+ years away even if it all comes together. Ceiling-wise, though, can't help but be really excited.
  3. Jorge Mateo - SS/2B NYY

    Probably because you can run wild with raw speed in A-ball. And you can get on base with bad D's a lot easier. From the sounds of the scouting reports, his approach at the plate needs work, and he's still not elite at his reading/jumps. He's not getting caught because he's uber-fast. Again, that doesn't work nearly as well once you hit the Big Show. Given how many SS have graduated, after the obvious suspects (Seagar, Crawford and a rising Arcia), he's part of an exciting crop of SS's (Albies & Torres stand out, not sure if Guerra's power spike is just a product of his home park or not). He's likely go the highest ceiling out of all those guys simply because he looks to stick at SS and a 10-15 HR, 60+ SB is gold at that position, but the hit tool / batting eye are the most exploitable weaknesses hitters can have as they move up the ladder. So I get the tempered enthusiasm. A major difference in Mateo's favor is that his hand-eye coordination for contact looks strong - so at least he's not a swing-and-miss guy by skills, and has at least average pop (so he won't get crowded by OF's cheating on his bloop hits like with so many speed-only Punch and Judy hitters) But until the approach catches up, it's hard to see him as a lock - but the ceiling is so tantalizing you can't ignore him, would be shocked if he's not on the preseason top 75 lists (somewhere in the 60-75 range would be my guess). But calling him elite, given where his weaknesses lie, and the competition he's faced, I understand why the lack of elite buzz is there. Having said that, if you don't have him by now, the cost of acquiring him is skyrocketing (it's one thing to not be elite, but quite another to not have him, or have to acquire him).
  4. Victor Robles - OF WAS

    The thing is, if you are succeeding at Low-A ball at age 18, that's pretty special. Killing it in GCL at 18 is impressive too - but there's more variance, and it's certainly seen a fair bit. But if he continues this success at Low-A, the age at level of play really has to be taken note of. When you add in the fact that his body can only fill out for more power, and his body type (long, lean) often allows this, I can see the excitement. The exciting parts besides the plus power potential are his plus speed (which could always go down as he fills out), and his patient/advanced approach. The hardest skill to learn is batting eye/approach, so to be advanced in this area is a huge plus to his outlook. There's still the floor that he busts out - but the likelihood with health gets a lot lower if your hitting approach is sound. If he keeps this success at low-A at 18 and is playing A+/AA next year at 19, the helium watch is going to be nuts. He would likely be the youngest guy next year at the Futures game. Given the number of times he's appeared in midseason chats as the most likely guy to ascent post-midseason rankings in low-A/rookie ball, now is the time to get him. Just realize that he's literally 3 years away - and that means busting is always possible - but the ceiling is sky-high.
  5. Jorge Mateo - SS/2B NYY

    This is low-A - so he's got to make the jump to Hi-A, then AA/AAA. And there are clear flaws to his hitting skills at this stage (low BB rate, no power), that will get unmasked even more at higher levels. If he was up by 2017 it would be a huge bonus. 2018 way more likely. Frankly, you want him to get all of the issues straightened out in the minors - a Billy Hamilton level SB guy at SS is gold. Give him the Reyes skills in other areas (XBH's, .avg) with Hamilton SB-ceiling (I realize Reyes used to be that guy too), well, wow. But literally miles away, and a couple of major hurdles to cross. For now, one can only dream at his ceiling (but the floor is still uber-low, too).
  6. Jorge Mateo - SS/2B NYY

    At work, so rather than re-type from the 2015 Breakout thread (which only lasts a year)... Mateo may not be showing any power right now, but it's the projection of average power, and the ability to stick at SS, and his age at the level he's playing at, all of which really separates him, given he has legit bat skills, and true 80, elite speed. A true SB-overall-leader ceiling with the potential for 10-15 HR at SS? Truly elite ceiling. Just keep in mind it's literally 2-3 years off at the earliest.
  7. Lucas Giolito - SP WAS

    I would just love to see him and Strasburg go back-to-back in a meaningful short playoff series (say, 2016). ETA mid-2016 after Super-2, hands down best stuff in the MILB by far. True legit ace ceiling. FB and curve are already plus-plus pitches. Very good control, now just needs a little more command (which should improve now that he's 2 years post-TJS, last year he pitched under the 18-month window when full command returns IIRC), and the change is actually already OK - but it could be an actual plus pitch. If that happens, well, that's just unfair...but would be fun to watch. Most likely finishes year with AA, and then gets the AA/AAA treatment next season before post-Super 2 callup, if it all goes to plan (and so far, he's gone exactly as planned post-TJS). Nats gambled big, and hit home runs big-time with Rendon (when he fell to them) and then Giolito (mid-1st with TJS risk). That's how you build dynasties, hats off to their scouting division (Stras was a lock pick, so can't say they were brilliant, just in the right place at the right time there, but I digress).
  8. Yoan Moncada - IF CWS

    That's entirely possible, but the fact they bid 27M means they saw he was an elite talent worth bidding on. BOS just outbid them. Obviously by my moniker I have no stake in this, but justifying the depth of their farm system seems more rationalization than reasoned. As the cost is double, I doubt that NYY will look at the 6M difference (54M with penalty vs. BOS 60M) and say "good thing we saved 6M".
  9. Yoan Moncada - IF CWS

    Since MLB has to approve any trade, and they have a wide range of latitude, no doubt they'd veto any trade as an attempt to circumvent the restrictions MLB has in place. Unlike the case with breaking laws, MLB can simply use the "best interest of the game" clause to veto any deal.
  10. Yoan Moncada - IF CWS

    Re: international free agents, I have no idea if this applies - but a player can't be traded away if they are drafted for at least 6 months after signing. Free agents signed by MLB who are traded in the first year of their contract would then have the option of voiding their contract with the new team, IIRC (again, this is for FA's who pass their 6-year service time window). Point being, there are MLB provisions that prevent a sign-and-trade scenario, unlike the NFL/NBA. It's why Trea Turner was still technically on San Diego at the time of the Wil Myers trade, but is headed to WAS once the 6-month window from his signing has cleared. I suspect something like that would be in place for international FA's. Personally, it's others mentioned - in 2 years, Napoli, Craig, Victorino and likely even Big Papi, and by decline, Pedroia will be out of the picture. Bogaerts can move to 3B if needed, or even a corner OF spot. Sandoval can play 1B, 3B or DH. Betts can be a 2B or OF. They have a ton of options. If there's a trade happening for Hamels, Betts + a bad contract would make a ton of sense (Swihart is more untouchable because BOS has no one to take his place) but BOS isn't forced to do it yet, they'll do it if it makes sense (which is why attaching Betts to a 1-2 year salary dump also makes sense to get Hamels). BOS did this to accumulate talent, and to play keepaway from the Yankees. Can't blame them for this line of thinking.
  11. Yoan Moncada - IF CWS

    You are right, I stand corrected - found a better source which details all of it - As it turns out, no draft signees, or IFA's can sign a MLB deal anymore (that's new with the last CBA). The key part in bold below: So, what it means - let's say a 40M contract - that's 40M up front to MLB, and then you can pay Moncada over a full calendar year. MILB salary is peanuts, and first 3 years of MLB service time (assuming whoever wins him plays the service time game and avoids Super-2), that's just over 500K each (500K was 2014, adjusted for cost of living in 2015). So that means for a 40M contract, it becomes a 82M contract for the next 4 years, assuming Moncada is up sometime in 2016. It also gives the MLB team control for the arbitration eligible years - but now arbitration could jack up the price as much as 25-30M more, assuming he's a top 5 SS/2B by Year 4. If he's not, then the # is a lot lower. Thx for pointing it out - FG had the better full story, and didn't realize the MILB draft picks can't even sign MLB deals anymore, from what FG is saying. Mea culpas. Given the $ has to be upfront, hard not to see the big-$ teams not being the frontrunners. Moncada's signing IMO for sure will signal the heralding of an IFA draft with the next CBA.
  12. Yoan Moncada - IF CWS

    I don't know how much you guys like Gammons, but I found it interesting what that evaluator said. Much like the NFL draft this time of year, the whispering Lying Season is here, trying to drive the prices down. Not that Moncada is a lock for guaranteed success, but this is always when counter-intel is "leaked" out to the press.
  13. Yoan Moncada - IF CWS

    Yeah, the upfront $ as I understand it is to ensure that teams are backloading deals to reduce the bonus. Teams can give MLB contracts to anyone they want to - all a MLB contract does is put them on the 40-man roster, and limit the # of times they can be sent to the minors. It still gives them 6 years of service time control. So a 40M contract would buy out 6 years of service time (not calendar time) - but they would be committing to some sort of schedule in that contract. And that 40M is guaranteed, too, and thus they have to match it for the penalty. Still, a 40M+ hit in the first year is still prohibitive for some teams - so it's not working at balancing the gap between small and large-budget teams. No doubt this gets addressed at the next CBA, because MLB union will not care to concede on this, if it gets them more $ for their MLB members. This link sums it up best on IFA's 22 & under -
  14. Yoan Moncada - IF CWS

    I'm talking about the under 22 IFA's. I.e. what the point of spending pools. Non of those players are what I'm talking about and were not subject to the spending pool limit. Those are just regular IFA's. That were free Market that signed major league deals.. Moncada will not be getting an MLB contract. He gets a 1 shot signing bonus than becomes under cost control. Making him premium value asset. You understand that this going to cost a team about 80 Mil in ONE YEAR(because of the 100% tax). None of those players costed 80 Mil in any ONE given year.. That is where being a big market team matter.. I believe Darvish was the most expensive comparison. Given his posting fee. Actually, it's 40M penalty fee in 1 year, and then whatever part of the 6-year 40M deal he gets in Year 1. Remember, the 40M likely covers his first 6 years of time. So in that respect, it's more like Darvish & the Japanese FA's of old, except MLB gets the penalty fee, instead of the posting fee the Japanese clubs pocketed. Still, because the Japan fee was a blind bid, and this is an open market bid, it's basically going to allow the clubs with the highest budgets to get guys like Moncada. The penalty fee was supposed to address this but clearly teams with deep pockets will just ignore it if the guy is elite. So yeah, no doubt the next CBA, this gets addressed (history has also shown players in the big leagues will always concede to limit rookie/minors guys salary ceilings to get their MLB needs met, I see no reason why this pattern will change with the next CBA).
  15. Yoan Moncada - IF CWS

    Sounds like a resolution is coming fairly soon...can't blame the kid, wants to play ASAP (plus getting paid).