RotoRaysfan

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  1. I'll own the miss here - Tannehill was the one x-factor that could go awry, and it did - he was just awful. Not just for Parker, for all the WR's. Stills got open on a broken coverage, but otherwise Tannehill showed zero pocket awareness, and couldn't get the ball out - Landry & Parker were open but it required anticipation to get the ball out as they made their breaks. When you've had 4 weeks and all of preseason, no excuses to be that late. Still, I'll own the miss here - we all know Tannehill is the X-factor that decides how well MIA's WR's will do. Tonight, it was snake eyes. Ugh.
  2. Ah, gotcha. Yes, I misunderstood, but all clear now. I do think the 4 week estimate is less likely, but with elite athletes, they can push the envelope - bone healing hasn't been one of the areas where youth & elite physical traits has translated nearly as well, though.
  3. It's the risk of re-injury that's key here. Just because Dez played with it doesn't mean he's fine going forward. Hairline or not, it's a fracture in the tibial plateau, which is crucial in load bearing and mobility. It can definitely get worse. If it depresses the plateau beyond 5 mm, then it's surgery, and all the long-term risks that come with it, and a 10+ week recovery to boot. Knowing the above, the decision here isn't rocket science. And to be really clear, tibial plateau fractures requiring surgery, that's a completely different animal in terms of recovery - that's a greater risk to compromise long-term performance, than letting this settle down, not re-injure it, and heal non-operatively. It's the only study around, but NIH-sponsored study on tibial plateau surgery recovery reflects the severity of the injury if you need to operate (and yes, it's only 11 professional or competitive athletes out of the 80+ studied, but that's still very sobering news if you need surgical treatment). If Dez & co. can stay away from the knife, it's crucial to his long-term outlook. Some injuries require pain tolerance only, there's no risk of worsening the original problem. Sadly, this isn't one of those cases. Frankly, I suspect this is more gamesmanship on DAL's part - trying to get SF to gameplan for Dez. Rappaport's reporting here isn't great, given the diagnosis. Knowing the diagnosis, to repeat - no sane team doctor will clear him this week. And not until the fracture is completely healed. The silver lining is that as long as he doesn't re-injure it, the outlook isn't nearly as gloomy as if he required surgery - but that also means the Boys & Dez would be nuts to risk re-injury by returning too soon.
  4. Rappaport's track record of late isn't stellar. This is NOT one of his better moments. If it's a tibial plateau fracture, he's out until the bone is fully healed. Even the Football Guys Doc quoted in the RW daily update article and Dr. Chao are unequivoval - the conclusions drawn by the writers are the problem here. They're reading into the "location is important here" - and missing the fact that now that the diagnosis is clear, the info on recovery becomes very clear. The speculation on shorter times was when people thought a grade 1 MCL strain was going to be the diagnosis - tibial plateau fracture is pretty clear that you can't return until the bone's completely healed. Dez & Jerry's statements are just classic stage 1 of grieving process when you get bad news - denial. The fracture involves the tibial plateau - which puts a huge risk on re-injury with playing until the bone has healed. Surgery, 10+ week recovery, risk of joint arthritis with surgical intervention in his 40's (fantasy owners don't care, he should). No sane team doctor will clear him. If the diagnosis is a tibial plateau fracture, there is no other outcome but Dez out until the bone heals. The safe bet is 6 weeks. A fast healer, I suppose 4 weeks is possible, but as we've seen with most players who have a fracture, 6 weeks is the median time seen.
  5. Guys, let's get back to Smallwood. No need for personal potshots, and honestly, people can be accountable for their past opinions, that's how everyone learns, but let's also know when to stop beating a dead horse, or split hairs. This isn't a request, it's part of the the CoC. The posts in question & their replies are now invisible - but as we've had nearly a page of back and forth on who said what in the summer, let's also move the discussion forward.
  6. Smallwood is just a redraft lottery ticket, but consider this: 1. Pederson is a more aggressive version of Reid (at least from a scheme/play-calling perspective). Thankfully. 2. 2 RB's can thrive in a scheme like this. Shady & Sproles co-existed in a big way. Sproles is the guy who has the highest floor, but he's already mostly owned by now, because everyone knows this. The Q is who the other RB that can eat is. 3. Yes, Mathews is the lead dog. A really gimpy lead dog. Over-under on staying healthy should be counted on 1 hand. 4. And yes, Barner is there. But Smallwood's game profiles better in the long run in a Reid based scheme - it's why PHI drafted him. And yes, there's a lot of competition here, and a lot of uncertainty as a result. In redrafts, he's the last guy on your shallow bench. In deeper redrafts, he's a lock to keep - because if Mathews did go down and stay down, the payoff could be huge. There's also a ton of uncertainty - but if there was certainty, well, he wouldn't have been available in the late rounds/WW, either. In dynasty/long-term keepers, this is the Phi RB you want to own (but most dynasty owners would have determined this at draft day).
  7. Listen, I get the ThuNF concerns - but a few observations: 1. MIA just can't run the ball. They really can't. That will force them to throw. 2. CIN is really good at stopping the run. They stuffed my Broncos run game badly. Going run-heavy is unlikely to be Gase's plan. 3. Cameron is hurt, and Stills got a lot of work because CLE paid a lot of attention to Parker. That could happen again - but honestly, CIN's CB's aren't playing that well (the rain/wind helped them limit PIT). DT & Sanders crushed them. Parker & Landry should feast. 4. CIN is going to do OK vs. MIA D, which means both teams are going all out. 5. The one reason MIA could struggle - Tannehill. In the end, he's got to get the ball out early, and take a few shots downfield, like Siemien did (FTR, Siemien only went downfield past 20+ yards 3x - he just happened to go 3/3 on Sunday). There are a lot of ThuNF duds - but you have to look at the context of why that happens. Teams often try to go run-heavy, and play-call conservatively, because their linemen are beat up, and they want to survive. In this case, MIA is 1-2, they need this W badly. Combine it with MIA's lack of run game, CIN's ability to stuff the run, and I'm very happy to start Parker as a top 30 WR play this week. There's always risk, but the ceiling is sky-high here. The biggest variable is Tannehill, but that's not changing - if you drafted Landry & Parker, it comes with the aspirins you should take before watching Tannehill play.
  8. Re: SD O-line, they lost King Dunlap who didn't play, and DJ Fluker was dinged up, missed time in & out of game. Max Tuerk wasn't there for depth (but he's not a starter...yet). Their O-line is good when it's their front 5, a really solid power blocking unit. When those 2 are out, not so much. That's what we saw yesterday. And yeah, MGIII was outstanding in pass pro - that's how you stay on the field. That's going to be key when he plays DEN 2x - get those dumpoffs, and screens - 10 pt PPR floor. More of a risk in standard, but in PPR, his value is actually higher, given he's seeing pass receiving work, and doing well in pass pro. The worst part was that Rivers missed MGIII for at least a 10+ yard gain on the right flat, then had the gall to scream at MGIII (it was Rivers' fault all the way), then missed the screen with 15 yards to go to paydirt, 3 blockers and no defenders (he had to rainbow it over an incoming DE, but he bailed out, not completely a choke job like the first, but that's on Rivers too). In PPR, that was 10-11 points minimum (and the first could have been a 25 yard TD too, so possibly as much as 20 points left on the field by Rivers). Given the above 2 factors (O-line play will improve with those 2 back, Rivers miscues hiding what was a very good pass protection/receiving day for Gordon), and once Bosa joins, a stiffer run D to let Bolts have more TOP, if the O-line and MGIII stay healthy, easy top 10 RB in PPR for ROS IMO.
  9. This x 100. Watt's still a force, but not nearly up to 100 percent yet. Still give the full nod to BB for neutralizing the rest of that HOU D (Mercilus, Clowney, McKinney, their CB's), who have been able to dominate even with Watt not close to 100 percent, either, the first 2 games.
  10. First off, I tip my cap to the legendary coaching ability of Belicheck. No one can argue his greatness - he just outcoached 2 supposed contenders, who came in and fell flat on their faces in both games (ARI & HOU). As a hardcore Broncos fan, nothing but respect. At the same time, while I hope Brissett is fine long-term, I do hope he misses the next game and Garrapolo be unable to go - because I'm waiting to see what BB would have up next to get another W in the books. At this point, I'm wondering if the opposing teams are better planning for Brady - because they're whiffing on playing for his subs so badly right now (and I own Brady, so I'm not suggesting Brady's worse, just that teams are clearly guessing wrong on how BB is going to attack their D, or how their D should attack the new QB, where I think everyone knows where Brady hurts you, and where he's vulnerable). The other reason I want to see this - if Brissett & JimmyG couldn't go, and then Brady comes back Week 5, that would be 4 different starting QB's in 5 weeks. I don't anytime that's happened where a team could go 5-0. Obviously, anything can happen, but with BUF/CLE as the 2 opponents, not hard to see NE at 5-0. With 4 different QB's starting, that is probably unprecedented. Again, hats off to Belicheck. I'd hope he'd settle down and not be quite such a PITA about injury disclosure, but I've resigned myself to the fact that's his way of getting back at the NFL for what he likely perceives as an unjust penalty to Brady. Basically a big flip of the bird to the NFL injury reporting policy - which he's always done, but has taken it to ridiculous heights as far as non-disclosure by over-disclosure of questionable tags. Now he gets to be 3-0, 2 easier matchups coming, and Brady on the way, and Dion Lewis down the line.
  11. Repair means 3 months best-case, 6 months worst case, and given yesterday's news on the bucket-handle tear, the only choice available. No doubt AP is banking on his elite freak like recovery skills from past injuries, but man, at 30+ and that much mileage, 3 months would be a great outcome. Would be a great story to see him come back and play for the Vikes before he finds a new home in 2017, but for fantasy redraft purposes, yeah, he's done.
  12. Well, if he's the only guy you can drop, sure, point taken. But then you have to make the decision off best info - and if it's a bucket handle tear, agree 100 percent. It's just dumb if teams have spots to make moves, to not wait a day. But I get some leagues have short benches, such is life.
  13. Doesn't even need to go that far. It's a bench warrant for a civil case, so not a felony (some of our justice system members confirmed already). BUT...it just shows very poor judgment, no need for this kind of negative press when you are still suspended. That's a more legit worry, for a guy who can't afford to make 1 more serious mistake in judgment. That's a fair concern, especially in keeper/dynasty leagues. For redraft purposes, though, Week 5 still a full go for return.
  14. Guys, there's no reason to make a decision today when he gets the operation tomorrow. But, if more sources confirm it's a bucket handle tear, there is NO other option but the repair. The cleanout is no longer an option. Nothing lost by waiting a day, not like the hot WW options aren't already being scooped up by WW adds in competitive leagues, but if the bucket handle injury is confirmed, cue taps for the 2016 fantasy reg. season at a minimum.
  15. Well, with the AP news, this couldn't be a better situation for McKinnon short-term, and the long-term future owners were banking on just came early. A few observations: 1. McKinnon is still learning the RB position, but he's in a better spot than he was when he played in 2014. That's a huge reason for the Asiata PT being estimated lower than 2014. McKinnon could not pass protect then. That's going to keep you off the field a lot more. He's a lot better now. That should keep him around in 3rd down a lot of times, other than when it's 3rd and short. 2. He's still not as polished in the RB nuances, not surprising, this is his 3rd year total learning. So I don't actually think we'll see the full breakout until 2017 - because there's going to be a lot of learning on the job for game-speed adjustments. That's the stuff you don't learn on a practice field. Missed holes, wrong cut decisions, setting up blocks. I do think he's likely going to go nuclear if he stays healthy next year, though. 3. Asiata clearly gets the GL work, and 3rd and short work. And while McKinnon is clearly better at the pass-pro now than in his rookie year, he can't blow QB protection assignments with the Bradford statue sitting there. So, that's going to be worth watching. But, the raw talent, the ceiling, it's all there now. I think we'll see a 65-35 timeshare for McKinnon if his improvements in pass pro I saw in the preseason and last year hold up as he takes the starter role. I think we have to be really conservative with our TD totals, because inside the 5, it's Asiata time IMO (Asiata may be less talented, but he gets the tough yards, can pass protect, and catch the ball decently, although not nearly the same threat as McKinnon is as a YAC guy). I will say this for DFS - I'd stay away this week. The hype train will be nuts, he'll be dirt cheap, and everyone will own him as a perceived chalk play. But, Kuechly/Davis are great at neutralizing most pass catching RB's (the altitude and being on the field killed them @ DEN). But man, after that...as long as you don't expect he's a bellcow or short-yardage guy, and the pass pro holds up- time to get excited, owners. To be clear, if I'm going to stand on a podium, might as well call it - McKinnon is just OK, Asiata gets about 1/3 of the work if they are behind, more like 40+ percent if they are ahead, has #'s that are all TD dependent (so terrible if no TD, good if he scores), and owners who think McKinnon's HoF speech should be written now will despair. This first week is a trap game IMO DFS-wise. For season-long, and better yet, though, dynasty/keeper - your ticket's about to get cashed, and the payout next year could be massive - anything this year is just a nice early bonus cheque coming in.