jumper

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  1. Easier to name ones I did fear, it’s a short list. Bell, AB, Gurley, Nuk Hopkins. Any one of the 4 could ruin your week by themselves and often did.
  2. Derrick Henry 2018 Outlook

    How many other RBs with Henry’s size become elite in today’s NFL? SJax sure, am I forgetting a bunch of other 240+ pound perennial RB1s ?
  3. Derrick Henry 2018 Outlook

    Jerick McKinnon, Buck Allen, and few more good pass catching backs are FAs this year and could leach carries from Henry as a COP or RBBC. I'd also be very concerned as a potential Henry owner that TEN might give a contract to someone like Darkwa who might have the talent to challenge Henry for the feature back role given injury or ineffectiveness. Or create a Gio/Hill situation where neither can provide more than Flex/RB2 production.
  4. Alex Smith 2017 Season Outlook

    I don't think it would be as bad as the typical Browns move. Obviously with as much cap space as they have available they've probably be better served to keep whatever draft pick it would take to get him from the Chiefs and instead sign one of the arguably just as good FA guys like Keenum or Bradford. Or even a guy whose talent and ceiling is probably lower than Smith like Tyrod. Anyone who can mentor the QB they seem determined to spend their #1 overall pick on. Giving the Browns more credit for foresight than they probably deserve, Smith would be a moderately priced luxury right now who might become extremely valuable and provide a nice return once the a wave of older QBs starts joining Carson Palmer in retirement. In a year or two, there could be a lot of QB desperate teams as big names like Brady, Big Ben, Brees, etc. retire from the league. Paying Smith for a couple years then flipping him for a profit might be a very savvy move.
  5. NFL Division Round -- Picks

    I don’t think anyone in this thread has predicted a blowout either way, which is still a very possible outcome. Most see the teams as rough peers but with perhaps MIN being considered slightly better overall (on paper at least) and NO being more “balanced” (which may not amount to anything at crunch time). i think if you did a “Monte Carlo” style test and the teams played 100 times, the breakdown would probably be something like; 10% MIN def NO by <= 3 points 10% NO def MIN by <= 3 points 25% MIN def NO by >= 7 points 20% NO def MIN by >= 7 points 15% MIN def NO by 8-14 points 10% NO def MIN by 8-14 points 5% MIN def NO by 15-24 points 3% NO def MIN by 15-24 points 1% MIN def NO by 25+ points 1% NO def MIN by 25+ points So a victory at the extreme ends of winning margin I see as equally likely for either team. If the margin is fairly typical (+3 to +14 margin of victory) I’m seeing MIN winning 40 of 70 contests. Still favorable to MIN but not overwhelmingly so. Current Vegas spread is around MIN -5 (which surprisingly is more than ATL @ PHI minus Wentz). No matter who wins this game seems to be a very high percentage play to be very entertaining and almost certainly not a blowout or mistake filled snoozer. This game tnenthe likely NE-PIT matchup look like possible instant classics.
  6. Alex Smith 2017 Season Outlook

    He carried a draft ADP in the 200+ range overall this year. I’m guessing he’ll get a slight bump based on his week 1-5 performances but will probably still be in the 125-150 range in 1QB leagues. Since thats the range where owners who drafted QB high are starting to fill their bench with RB cuffs, marginal/journeyman players like Kenny Britt, or flyer picks like Kenny Golladay, I feel OK in picking a solid but uninspiring guy like Alex Smith there instead. Not every position on your roster can be filled with stud “high upside” guys so you might as well pick boring consistent guys for one of the non- stud roster spots - Smith qualifies.
  7. Alex Smith 2017 Season Outlook

    You're neglecting the opportunity cost of draft capital needed to get that “higher upside” QB. You could have paid a 3rd round pick for Rodgers, a 4th for Brady, or a 5th for Brees. Or you could have picked a boring but predictable “low upside” guys like Alex Smith with your 14th rounder. Both approaches are perfectly suitable to building a championship fantasy team. I’ve seen no evidence that “investing” in a high upside QB is a sure recipe for success.
  8. 2018 Auction Draft Strategies

    Only one strategy and all the rest I'm going to leave up to draft flow - gonna put up a big post-it note on my monitor screen reminding me "Kelce produces like a WR1, don't be afraid to bid for him because anything less than WR1 prices is a discount on his true value." Couple years now running I've refused to pay above "consensus" value for the guy and I won't make that mistake again.
  9. Alex Smith 2017 Season Outlook

    Yeah, I went Smith in the draft, picked up Keenum mid-year to replace Smith, and then went back to Smith for the 'Ship game. CSB but it proves the point that picking someone like Smith as your starter in a 12-teamer isn't quite the kiss of death that some think it is. That being said there are years where a stud QB can basically win the league for you, PFM in 2013 for example. Problem is that people tend to way overdraft that guy the following year and he rarely returns the value invested in him (hello Cam Newton's investors in 2016 who followed "expert" advice to take him as overall QB1 in the draft and spent a 3rd round pick on him).
  10. Alex Smith 2017 Season Outlook

    I disagree, he's fine as a back end QB1. Only 3 probable no-brainer QB1s next year; Rodgers, Wilson, and DeShaun. Then you have the "stud but will he retire?" tier composed of Big Ben, Brady, and Brees. Next up the "will he be healthy?" tier of Luck and Wentz. Then the "solid season-long QB1 but not probably not going to win your league" guys like Cam, Ryan, Stafford, and maybe Cousins depending on where he ends up. Then the gaggle of all the guys who are fringe QB1 guys that SOMEONE will need to pick as a starter just to fill their team and could probably ranked pick-em based on owner preference or matchup; Rivers, Garoppolo, Alex Smith, Keenum, Bradford, etc.). Any of which have the talent to give you top 3 numbers for the season if everything works out perfectly. All are capable of giving you either 3 or 30 points any given week and thus aren't automatic 'plug and play' guys. All are easily replaced with one of their peers if he sucks. If I waited to draft my QB I'd probably be comfortable with any of that last tier of guys as my starting QB although I might stream someone else for particularly bad matchups.
  11. NFL Division Round -- Picks

    Dude don't get me wrong I think the Vikes are going to give Brees all the business and he'll need to work his a** off to escape there with a win, no one is saying it's going to be a cakewalk or that he won't get beat up. As for "old. small guy" he's 38 y.o. and 6'0" and 209, so not hugely different than Case Keenum at 6'1" / 215 or Tom Brady who's 2 years older yet just won a Super Bowl last year. And while I respect the general adage that a taller quarterback is better I'm arguing it's not 100% predictive. Especially since in the case of Brees he seems to be above league average in the 'short' portion of your "the short to intermediate stuff (just outside the hash marks into the middle)" and almost exactly on league average for the 'intermediate' stuff. If anything your analysis should reflect that he's MUCH worse at throwing to the deep left than those "short to intermediate" routes. So if you see Ted Ginn is lined up on the right you need to provide extra safety help over the top and not worry about Kamara or Michael Thomas in the slot or left . Otherwise you might spend a long day seeing plays like this:
  12. NFL Division Round -- Picks

    No kidding. You'd think the guy who's thrown for over 5,000 yards multiple times, had the all-time best season completion percentage this year (and 3 of the top 4 overall all-time), AND will be #1 on the NFL all time passing yards list early next year absent career ending injury would get a lot more respect. Gun to head and my life depending on picking a QB who would accurately make any throw asked of him then Brees would probably be the guy I'd pick to make that pass.
  13. NFL Division Round -- Picks

    While mostly true you can’t account for key injuries like Kelce and fluke plays like Mariota TD to himself. We are making predictions here and not determining the future in advance. I’ve already predicted one underdog victory (JAX) on the possibility of strong defensive performance and flat performance by Steelers. Sure it could just as easily be TEN surprising the Pats, especially considering how flat Brady has been lately.
  14. Alex Smith 2017 Season Outlook

    The Jags are almost the same team offensively (roughly equivalent young stud RBs) but with no true WR1 and no Kelce. Sure the DEF is an upgrade from KC but Smith would face the same problems in JAX as he would KC. How about a dark horse candidate, the Pats? Alex Smith would be a great transition from the Brady era should his hype about "playing well into his 40s" gets exposed as nonsense. Trading Garappolo seems like it was forced on BB, perhaps he talks Kraft into using the 2nd rounder from the trade to get Smith whose contract is probably about what G-polo will get paid by the Niners (and he would have expected from the Pats). Restructure him with a extension in ~$20mm/year for 4-5 years and bam, Pats championship window extended for another 5 years.
  15. NFL Division Round -- Picks

    Pats is the only sure thing this weekend. Otherwise Eagles, Jags, and Saints. MIN-NO has the makings of a way better game than the actual Super Bowl this year.