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About jbshaw

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  • Birthday 03/08/1991

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  1. 2018 RB Class

    Big Michel fan. If I had 1.02, he'd be my dynasty selection. See him as being the best guy to be a Kamara-esque threat in this draft (think I'd argue Barkley as a higher point than that). Chubb just seems too slow in short area quickness. Maybe it's injury, or maybe it's just the fact that he's always compared to Michel, but I see him as kind of a plodder + rather than a true starting RB. Definitely closer to Blount than Lynch in my eyes. If he goes to a team that'll use him in the red zone, that could be a nice weekly TD gamble though.
  2. 2018 WR Class

    When you say he's not athletic and not good with the ball in his hands, that's a relevant data point, especially against those criticisms. You want to say he needs to catch with his hands more often, or improve his route running, or make more contested catches, etc, I'd agree that's not a good rebuttal. But when I have the chance to get a guy that came into a crowded WR corps and grabbed a 30% percent market share at 18 years old, and never finished below a 28% share, who won't turn 22 until the playoff push of his rookie season, and who has an absolutely sterling work ethic with no character red flags? A guy who as a freshman drew comparisons to Beckham from NFL scouts? I'm going to be very high on that player.
  3. 2018 WR Class

    http://www.espn.com/blog/afcnorth/post/_/id/93435/todd-mcshays-first-mock-ravens-select-baby-beckham-in-first-round While I agree that Beckham, arguably the second most talented WR in the game, is better than Kirk at everything (except attitude), I'm not the only one seeing shades of one in the other. As far as after the catch, you don't get 6 punt return TDs in a 3 year career if you aren't electric with the ball in your hands (the only people ahead of him on the all time list played 4 years). There are plays you could argue that maybe he could have turned it back and done differently. I recently read a scouting report showing it on tape, but they chose a play where he chose to lower his shoulder and guarantee the first down. The only thing I hesitate on is the tendency to body catch. My floor is how certain I am that he's an elite slot receiver talent at worst. Barring injury or absolutely horrible coaching, I expect him to be at least as good as Jarvis Landry in terms of real football by the end of this third season (I'm in dynasty mode. None of these guys are on my radar for redraft). Maybe he goes to Carolina and doesn't fit well with Cam. Maybe he goes to Cleveland and random QB #37 can't throw the ball accurately past the pocket. Fantasy is a fickle mistress I'm not going to predict. But on field, with his athleticism, toughness, and work ethic, he is the real deal. It's fine if you and everyone else doubt it. Drives down the price for me.
  4. 2018 WR Class

    Maybe it's bias (Lord knows I like my Aggies), but Miller double clutched a lot more balls from what I've seen than Kirk. Kirk needs to work on catching ball away from his body more often, but natural talent is there. He's a Saquon Barkley level work ethic type of guy too. Much better WR than Reynolds, who you like. As long as he goes somewhere with a greater level of coaching than Hue Jackson, I think his floor is a Jarvis Landry type role, where he's an elite slot receiver. If he refines his route running a little more, and does attack the ball rather than letting it come into his body, he has legitimate OBJ potential. If we're just keeping this within the realm of A&M, so my bias is gone, I think he's the most talented WR to come out of A&M in the last decade. If Evans wasn't 6'5", it wouldn't be close.
  5. Mike Evans 2018 outlook

    Add in an ankle sprain missing multiple weeks, a college broken ankle (basketball), and a college knee injury, and it's a little more. I'm not talking DND territory by any stretch. It just moves him clearly to the bottom of the Thomas/Evans type tier. We're talking difference in viewing him as a Mercedes AMG among high-end Porsche's and Lambos. I'm not calling him a Ford. (Personal disclaimer, I'd rather drive a Ford pickup than any of those cars, but I know I'm not winning a race).
  6. San Francisco 49'ers 2018 Season Outlook

    For context, Drew Brees lead the rest of the QBs with 8.09. CJ Beathard had 6.38 ypa. Ajusted Ypa, Carson Wentz was #4 with 8.28. Josh McCown was 14 with 7.3 (although Aaron Rodgers checked in at 7.2, significantly behind the rest of the "good" QBs)
  7. 2018 WR Class

    Guarantees Cowboys will take him.
  8. 2018 WR Class

    Edited in above, but Captain Kirk. I like Sutton as a potential Jeffrey/Evans type, but a lot is going to depend on how he runs. Ridley I'm just TERRIFIED of his build. While he's taller, he's scrawny. Great skills. But I'm worried about durability. Washington is definitely a guy I wouldn't be shocked if he was the top receiver when it's all said and done.. DJ Moore is sneaky (50% of receiving offense this year!) Very similar to Kirk as a prospect, although I don't know on the character (Kirk is absolutely sterling), but he doesn't have 3 years of great production. Of course, the wildcard is Antonio Callaway. Was widely regarded as a top wide receiver prospect in this draft class. Real (and obvious) risk with him is character/legal.
  9. 2018 WR Class

    The 2014 class was ridiculous. It's like the 2011 edge rusher class or the 2012 QB class. I actually like this class. I only think there's one star player at WR (and it's a total homer pick and relying on projection and an assumption of bad development coaching in college), but there's a lot of guys I think can be productive WR2 or WR3 types. Late edit: With that said, Kirk is my guy this year. I'm an Aggie, so I'm sure that plays into it. The dude comes into an SEC team with receiver depth and immediately grabs over a quarter of the receiving work as a true freshman. Despite what the NFL.com combine profile says, the guy is fast and agile. He has good hands, although right now he does have a tendency to body catch. He has a work ethic to match anyone in the NFL, so I'm a little willing to overlook technique flaws that he can clean up (especially with good coaching. A&M doesn't have a great recent track record of developing players.) Combine that with questions with the other top candidates, and Kirk is the one guy I feel confident in. I feel safe about him developing into at least an elite slot option, similar to Landry. At his absolute best, he can be somewhere in between Hilton and OBJ.
  10. Mike Evans 2018 outlook

    Allen has a more extensive injury history. Only reason I wouldn't consider him in that tier.
  11. Kenyan Drake 2018 Season Outlook

    2nd or 3rd round hype seems ridiculous (and I say that as someone who has him locked up in dynasty). Maybe this is just me trying to overcompensate for being a homer, but based on how they used him when they had Williams, I just don't see Miami as trusting in him as a significant majority running back. Maybe they sign Hyde or draft someone else, but I just can't see him getting more than 50-60% of the work there, even though he has the talent to. I'd love to be wrong, and this is more gut feeling than anything, but I don't confidently see him as being a top 15 RB next year, and he has to be in order to justify the top 30 draft pick hype.
  12. San Francisco 49'ers 2018 Season Outlook

    Numbers don't lie, but the problem isn't always in the arithmetic. Sometimes, we're using the wrong numbers though. Passer rating is a stat that means very little because it only judges on a subset of the QB's snaps (typically a large subset, but still fails to account for the entire picture) and doesn't distinguish between the QBs value added and the WR's value added. Kaep posts a decent passer rating because he doesn't take chances with the ball. It leads to an inflated completion percentage and reduced INT rate, but it fails to take into account when he should have passed/thrown away and instead scrambles for a loss/minimal gain. A throwaway hurts your passer rating. A 30 yard sack fumble doesn't. https://www.dawgsbynature.com/2013/12/4/5175398/why-passer-rating-is-not-a-good-stat Is Case Keenum a better passer than Aaron Rodgers? Is McCown a better passer than Roethlisberger or Cousins? Is Andy Dalton better than Cam Newton or Mariota? Jimmy's passer rating puts him within a point of Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, and Russel Wilson, all guys who can actually win with their arms. Obviously, actually comparing him to two of those guys is blashpemy. But when you add watching the tape, you understand that It's 6 games. A lot can change going forward, both for good and ill. But I'm a lot closer to saying that Jimmy's 96.2 passer rating is a fair representation of his actual merit as a passer than Alex Smith's 104.7 (the best in the league, which should really illustrate something), Josh McCown's 94.5, or Deshone Kizer's anything but zero.
  13. Kirk Cousins 2018 Season Outlook

    What help did he have? Quality wide receivers? That's laughable. A reliable TE? That's laughable. A quality O-line? They were in the hospital. Chris Thompson is an animal, but the running game wasn't A grade. The only thing on that team that gave them a chance every week was Cousins. He's unquestionably a top 10 QB in the league right now. And he offered the team a sub 20M contract that they turned down. This isn't a matter of him wanting to break the bank. This is a matter of a guy wanting financial security, something reasonably close to market, and an organization that realizes how good he is.
  14. San Francisco 49'ers 2018 Season Outlook

    The best part is they have so much money, they can frontload the contract and have him be cheap in years where the cap might matter more. Throwing a 20M cap hit in 2018 doesn't kill the team's ability to field a team. Robinson reminds me of Dez in his prime. If he got to the point where he has a no doubts competent passer like Jimmy G appears to be, he's a threat for top 3 WR. He's already posted a top 4 year with Bortles.