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About jbshaw

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  1. I wouldn't be ultra shocked at 30 TDs to WR's, but getting it spread out fairly evenly I don't think happens.
  2. Not entirely sure I"m clear on years (and bedtime so not really researching), but am I correct in saying that the least prolific passer throwing to those RBs was Phillip Rivers? Although if that was his close to 5000 year, maybe we're talking about Stafford. Although I think Rivers is probably the one with the offense the least routed through the passing game on that list. It's such a jump from the Rivers, Staffords, Bradys, and Brees' of the world to Cam Newton's play style that I don't think any of them are accurate data points. The J Stew ones though are food for thought though. I'm more inclined to believe the 16 game sample (as opposed to extrapolated 3 games) is closer to the offensive potential, but I'm not sure how McCaffrey stacks up there, especially with a proven capable power runner in Stewart already there.
  3. In my experience, outside the elite players like Keuchly, the better fantasy IDP players are the average real football players (more opportunities to make tackles because defenses aren't scheming). It wasn't something I found particularly enjoyable because of that disconnect, even if I was successful at it.
  4. Different QB, bigger (and faster) defenses, different O-line, different head coach, different part of the country (very small, but heat is heat), different predominant base defenses in the NFL, different expectations of RBs, different overarching offensive philosophies. I'm not a tape guy, but I'm going to assume Shula of 2017 is nothing like Shula of 1997 because of all the other differences in his competitive environment. I have the 5th pick in my dynasty rookie draft (took over the team), and McCaffrey is in my top 5 rookies. I don't hate him. But projecting a 1400 yard floor is bolder than the Colosseum is old. I thought Zeke would take the league by storm, and despite the fact that he was in an immeasurably better situation than McCaffrey (and in my opinion more talented as an overall RB), I didn't think his non-injury floor was that high. You're saying that as long as he doesn't get hurt, a rookie from a notoriously bad defensive conference that hasn't produced a good young RB in something like a decade (where he had the benefit of having a great college line) going to a team that has never run an offense that suits his talents with an established RB in place (especially as a power back, so he won't get goal line work), without an elite offensive line, is guaranteed to be a top 10 RB in standard this year. Yes, I'm the one sticking my head in the sand for saying that's bold.
  5. 2017-1997=20 years. McCaffrey MIGHT have been potty trained by that point, but I don't think looking at what another player did in an entirely different era, with different personnel (Cam in particular is a different type of QB and will heavily influence McCaffrey's use), and a different head coach is a winning formula. If this was 5 years, I'd be a little wary, but think it was a worthy data point. But 20 years is stretching that too far.
  6. Leary was a good guard. Collins is elite talent but very inexperienced and doesn't play with great technique. I think at best it's a wash (at least first half of season), but I'm willing to write that one off as a net lateral move. But Free was competent (if not great). The best way I've ever seen to describe him was "if he's your best lineman, you have a problem. If he's your worst lineman, you are set." They didn't have anyone else on the roster who could beat Free though. So I am questioning losing a competent piece without an apparent backup plan.
  7. Dak was acquitted. He was speeding (by about 10 mph, I think it was 40 in a 30) rather than driving erratically. Although it's apparently common in Mississippi, he wasn't given any sort of test to determine his BAC. The rest of his actions since then also help with believing it wasn't just cops blowing things over, as opposed to the other maroon and white SEC mobile QB of the last few years who shall not be named for the shame he has brought on my alma mater. That's kind of my point. I don't mind Gronk Gronking (which is much wilder than I would live my life, but whatever) because he does it responsibly. That's all I ask. I don't expect Peyton Manning or Tom Brady crazy levels of devotion even off field (although I'm a big fan of anyone who does). Sometimes life happens and some guy tries to pick a fight with you. Despite being a quiet non-partier, it's happened to me (at a wedding oddly enough). I imagine it's much more likely for someone famous in a divisive field like sports. But in one offseason, Zeke is wracking up off-field incidents unlike some of the other bigger partiers in the NFL. Umenyiora, Kaepernick (in relation to partying), Stafford, and Gronk haven't gotten into any issues like this in their entire careers, at least that I'm aware of or can find fairly quickly. But I'm becoming increasingly convinced Zeke is working his way closer towards the Manziels, Aldon Smiths, and Pacman Joneses of the world.
  8. Playing .5 PPR for the first time ever this season, so please don't hold me to PPR, but if I'm being an unbiased non-Cowboys-homer, Zeke should be 3rd at best. Give me DJ or Bell because of the longer track record. Bell has a very good O-line himself (PFF rated the Steelers top 5 last year), and is every bit the focal point of the offense that Zeke is (even with Brown there). DJ singlehandedly proved he can threaten 1000/1000 WITHOUT a competent offensive line around him. The more the NFL "investigation" continues with Zeke, and the more he shows he has no interest in following Dak's off-field example, the more Zeke is also going to become the biggest suspension risk of the 3. Now, I'm a Cowboys homer and I like having one of the big Cowboys players on my team. Going into the offseason, I took the position that Zeke was materially close enough to DJ/Bell that he was my personal #1. But the off-field risk is increasingly changing that.
  9. It affects them all equally, but without a similar bump for other positions, a Rodgers it brees throwing 35tds gets another 20 points over replacement value of a qb throwing 25. That is not insignificant.
  10. Of course that's the million dollar question. If he's 80-90% of Jamal Charles, he's one of the better backs in the league, and the only reason to use another back is to keep Charles fresh. If he hasn't healed well, he's an average-ish (depending on how badly he hasn't healed) option with durability issues, and CJ gets more work.
  11. Very optimistic. Not a big Walter Football fan in terms of agreeing with his take, although I do get a kick out of his strong reactions. With that said, Gil is multidimensional. He's not DJ, but he's not Blount either.
  12. Because he has the physical tools. And that's all that ever matters in scouting. Russel>Brady after all, right?
  13. 30 career (3 years) receptions on a team that didn't have all that much talent outside of Evans moving to a QB with less volume statistics than the previous one. It'd have to be a homer-based lotto ticket or very deep league for me to bite.
  14. I have to be very generous with some teams to get them to what I would call as 7 losses. Like most teams, they'll drop some they shouldn't, and maybe win one or 2 they should, but 8-8 seems ludicrously low as the expectation.
  15. Probably depends on what source you're using. Maclin hasn't been cut all that long. Depending on how they calculate ADP, there could still be a significant chunk of drafters who drafted while Maclin was a Chief included in that average.