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About jbshaw

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  1. Maybe this is just me not understanding how Vegas refers to things, but mathematically, your average team should be 15/1 to win the conference. Now, the Browns are so bad that your median team might not be 15/1, but that basically says the Colts are slightly worse than your average team. For a team that just finished third worst in the NFL, has a QB with questionable health, a lack of talent at key positions, a favorite in its own division, a second better team (than Indy) in their own division, and a Texans team that should improve massively as long as it avoids the injury bug, I wouldn't touch them at only 20/1. This is over-optimism season. Embrace the pessimism and be pleasantly surprised.
  2. Minnesota Vikings 2018 outlook

    Sadly, and I do mean sadly, I've listened to multiple podcasts this week from guys that say there isn't a material difference. I don't believe one word of it. To me, the only QBS clearly better than Cousins right now are Brady, Wentz, Rodgers, Wilson, and Brees. Maybe you add Big Ben, or Stafford, or Rivers to personal preference, or maybe you throw Luck in because you're not as worried about the arm. But Kirk Cousins IS a premium QB, and I'd die on a hill saying he's a top 5 option under 35 if you're in a window now. And I'm excited to be starting my dynasty rebuild with a QB of his caliber. I doubt he'll ever be a top 3 fantasy QB. But I feel very, very good about reliable QB1 production.
  3. Bargain is relative. At vet minimum, he's at least depth who shouldn't give up 300 sacks to Clayborn. Maybe I'm just biased holding out hope for one of my contemporary Aggies. Still very much glad they've stayed out of the initial tidal wave.
  4. Given Jerry's tendency for extravagance at whatever cost he feels like, I am ecstatic they haven't successfully hit something yet. By all means, see what Mathieu, or Joeckel, or Pryor cost. If they're bargains, bring them in. But don't pay top money when you have Lawrence, Irving, and Martin next year.
  5. Cleveland Browns 2018 Season Outlook

    Have to make sure you get the right third rounder though. James Conner? David Wilson (actually a first rounder)? Matt Jones? As a whole, I tend to agree with you. But Barkley looks like the type of guy that comes around once a decade. I like 3 of the QBs, but I don't think they're anything that doesn't come around every other year because of some serious warts to counteract their strengths. IF (I want to highlight the IF part), the Browns think they're about the same with one of Darnold, Rosen, Allen, and they don't see any guy as a must have over the others in their scheme, take the generational talent. We just had a championship weekend with Keenum, Foles, and Bortles starting. I'd much rather have a solid overall team than swing for the fences on a QB that I only have a 50% shot of being a respectable NFL starter. I'd rather take Barkley, Nelson, and Rudolph and give Taylor (and hopefully eventually Rudolph) a fantastic supporting cast.
  6. 2018 RB Class

    Keep in mind Duke Johnson was a top 10 PPR back this year with the Browns despite horrid (and that's being kind) QB play. Johnson can't hold Barkley's pads.
  7. 2018 WR Class

    Saw you mention that earlier. I'd bet money you've watched more tape than me, but you saying he wasn't sure handed was the first I'd heard of it.
  8. 2018 WR Class

    Objectively, I think he's one of the higher ceilings and requires the least projection. But his build really worries me. I'll be surprised if he weighs in as 190. Weight isn't everything, but the eye test looks ridiculously small to be taking NFL hits.
  9. 2018 RB Class

    Big Michel fan. If I had 1.02, he'd be my dynasty selection. See him as being the best guy to be a Kamara-esque threat in this draft (think I'd argue Barkley as a higher point than that). Chubb just seems too slow in short area quickness. Maybe it's injury, or maybe it's just the fact that he's always compared to Michel, but I see him as kind of a plodder + rather than a true starting RB. Definitely closer to Blount than Lynch in my eyes. If he goes to a team that'll use him in the red zone, that could be a nice weekly TD gamble though.
  10. 2018 WR Class

  11. 2018 WR Class

    When you say he's not athletic and not good with the ball in his hands, that's a relevant data point, especially against those criticisms. You want to say he needs to catch with his hands more often, or improve his route running, or make more contested catches, etc, I'd agree that's not a good rebuttal. But when I have the chance to get a guy that came into a crowded WR corps and grabbed a 30% percent market share at 18 years old, and never finished below a 28% share, who won't turn 22 until the playoff push of his rookie season, and who has an absolutely sterling work ethic with no character red flags? A guy who as a freshman drew comparisons to Beckham from NFL scouts? I'm going to be very high on that player.
  12. 2018 WR Class

    http://www.espn.com/blog/afcnorth/post/_/id/93435/todd-mcshays-first-mock-ravens-select-baby-beckham-in-first-round While I agree that Beckham, arguably the second most talented WR in the game, is better than Kirk at everything (except attitude), I'm not the only one seeing shades of one in the other. As far as after the catch, you don't get 6 punt return TDs in a 3 year career if you aren't electric with the ball in your hands (the only people ahead of him on the all time list played 4 years). There are plays you could argue that maybe he could have turned it back and done differently. I recently read a scouting report showing it on tape, but they chose a play where he chose to lower his shoulder and guarantee the first down. The only thing I hesitate on is the tendency to body catch. My floor is how certain I am that he's an elite slot receiver talent at worst. Barring injury or absolutely horrible coaching, I expect him to be at least as good as Jarvis Landry in terms of real football by the end of this third season (I'm in dynasty mode. None of these guys are on my radar for redraft). Maybe he goes to Carolina and doesn't fit well with Cam. Maybe he goes to Cleveland and random QB #37 can't throw the ball accurately past the pocket. Fantasy is a fickle mistress I'm not going to predict. But on field, with his athleticism, toughness, and work ethic, he is the real deal. It's fine if you and everyone else doubt it. Drives down the price for me.
  13. 2018 WR Class

    Maybe it's bias (Lord knows I like my Aggies), but Miller double clutched a lot more balls from what I've seen than Kirk. Kirk needs to work on catching ball away from his body more often, but natural talent is there. He's a Saquon Barkley level work ethic type of guy too. Much better WR than Reynolds, who you like. As long as he goes somewhere with a greater level of coaching than Hue Jackson, I think his floor is a Jarvis Landry type role, where he's an elite slot receiver. If he refines his route running a little more, and does attack the ball rather than letting it come into his body, he has legitimate OBJ potential. If we're just keeping this within the realm of A&M, so my bias is gone, I think he's the most talented WR to come out of A&M in the last decade. If Evans wasn't 6'5", it wouldn't be close.
  14. Mike Evans 2018 outlook

    Add in an ankle sprain missing multiple weeks, a college broken ankle (basketball), and a college knee injury, and it's a little more. I'm not talking DND territory by any stretch. It just moves him clearly to the bottom of the Thomas/Evans type tier. We're talking difference in viewing him as a Mercedes AMG among high-end Porsche's and Lambos. I'm not calling him a Ford. (Personal disclaimer, I'd rather drive a Ford pickup than any of those cars, but I know I'm not winning a race).
  15. San Francisco 49'ers 2018 Season Outlook

    For context, Drew Brees lead the rest of the QBs with 8.09. CJ Beathard had 6.38 ypa. Ajusted Ypa, Carson Wentz was #4 with 8.28. Josh McCown was 14 with 7.3 (although Aaron Rodgers checked in at 7.2, significantly behind the rest of the "good" QBs)