• Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

1,464 Excellent

About jbshaw

  • Rank
    Hall of Famer
  • Birthday 03/08/1991

Profile Information

  • Gender
  • Location
    College Station, TX

Previous Fields

  • Add to Mailing List?

Recent Profile Visitors

1,694 profile views
  1. To be fair, he finished ahead of all but Cousins last year, and was within half a PPG of Cousins. I don't draft him high because I consider regression a possibility, especially with the defenses on board this year, but history supports it.
  2. That's not DJ. It's Bell. In terms of quality, about as close to potato/potahto as it gets.
  3. Rookies this millenium over 500 yards on the season as a TE (as opposed to 273 who have done it period as a TE). http://pfref.com/tiny/KkM6w Somehow, Calvin Johnson is included in there, so we only have 9 TEs this millenium. I'll pass on expecting a rookie to be anything more than replacement level.
  4. I think you're either misremembering or discounting the knocks on DJ coming out of school. Note not a single mention about his competition. They key point is he overcame/adjusted the weaknesses to become one of the best RBs in the game (if not the best). The same way Brady overcame his weaknesses. Or Antonio Brown overcame his (another 2 guys who are roughly as good in their positions as DJ is in his, and were both much more knocked than DJ coming out). Without the benefit of knowing how they were going to apply themselves, take coaching, etc, DJ was a worse prospect that Fournette was. Dak and Brady were worse prospects than Wentz or Tannehill or Russel or Leaf, so it certainly doesn't mean LF will be DJ or better in the NFL. Quite frankly, I'll be surprised if ANY prospect ends up as good as Brady/Rodgers, Brown, DJ, Watt, or Miller because those guys are simply so exceptionally rare.
  5. He's a better college talent. With that said, it's hard to imagine predicting anyone will be as good as DJ in the pros before they ever play a snap. He's set the bar so high, well above what a lot of "generational" talents achieve.
  6. So you place a lot of value in sunk costs. Let me pose you this question. If the Jags are paying Ivory like a top 6 RB, why won't he get any carries? ETA: Bedtime, so won't respond quickly.
  7. Probably depends on how you quantify bust. He clearly had a decent (if not ultra long) fantasy career. But in real football, was he worth a #2 pick? I don't think so. He wasn't a complete zero like a certain QB from my alma mater who will not be named, or Leaf or Russel, but he didn't return the value you'd expect that high.
  8. Even when it comes to rushing alone, DJ is elite. The point I'm trying to make is that it takes a rare level of talent to overcome a pretty poor situation and produce at an elite level. Fournette could be, but I don't want to bet on it. Just for fun though, let's look at a scouting report. I'm seeing a lot of the same complaints I am with Fournette. Now, this player walked into a better situation than Fournette, but he's been wildly successful despite supposedly being limited in the skill set going into his rookie year. Fournette might be the next one. I simply don't want to spend high on a rookie in a bad situation.
  9. And in all but 3 weeks with that coordinator change, no RB got higher than 60 yards. Why does it change with Fournette? Rookies take time to adjust, and they're paying tons for Ivory. The line realistically isn't significantly better (counting on a rookie lineman is iffy, and my understanding is Albert is poor in run blocking). Bortles' issues go well beyond mere injury. It's simply a bad situation. It doesn't mean he can't overcome it (DJ is a poster boy for that this year, although he at least has a good offensive mind behind him). It just means it's much harder.
  10. I'd be wary of looking at half season splits. Sometimes, they're helpful and predictive. Sometimes, it's simply a matter of getting Jacksonville was outside the top 20 in every team rushing stat except YPA (17) on the season. The offensive coordinator change could be indicative. So could realizing it's a lost season. So could getting a lucky string of opponents (doesn't appear to be the case here as y'all played Denver and Minnesota in that stretch). All season long, a Jag only rushed for >100 yards twice. Once in week 9 (coming off bye) against KC and once in week 17 against the Colts. They had one game above 80 yards (and that was their QB), and one game above 70 yards (week 4 against Indy). Every other game the leading rusher failed to hit 60 yards. I'm not excited about investing in a runner from that team.
  11. Jacksonville specifically isn't a great running team. More importantly, they're not a great running team and also don't have things in place that would support a good running game. I honestly don't know how DJ is able to be so good. With Palmer declining and a lackluster O-line, he shouldn't be able to do what he does. Planning on anyone to come in and be as good as DJ is foolhardy. McCoy is on a team with one of the best rushing setups in the league. They've been committed to running, have a decent line, and have a mobile QB that takes pressure off it. Gordon is the only show in town, has decent skill position talent so they can't completely stack boxes, and has receiving chops. Howard has a great O-line in front of him (at least on the interior). Fournette has nothing going for him. The WR's are good, but the QB negates the benefit from them. He has enough established talent that he won't have Melvin Gordon volume. The line has been subpar. Maybe Coughlin commits to it to the level that Buffalo has, and maybe Fournette has DJ's talent to overcome it anyway. But I'd rather pass on paying a high price to take that chance.
  12. Let's look at the Pats TD numbers the last 10 years. The first number is the number of rushing TDs the Pats scored. The second number is the number the leading TD rusher punched in, the third number is the second TD rusher, etc. For example, in 2016, the Pats had 19 rushing TDs with Blount scoring 18. So this would be: 2016: 19/18/1 So without further ado: 2016: 19/18/1 2015: 14/6/3/2/2/1 2014: 13/5/3/2/2/1 2013: 19/7/7/3/1/1 2012: 25/12/4/4/3/2 2011: 18/11/3/1/1/1/1 2010: 19/13/5/1 2009: 19/9/4/2/2/1/1 2008: 21/7/5/4/3/2 2007: 17/6/3/3/2/2/1 So, what do we have here. Well, I think we can fairly reliably say the Pats are likely to end up with 15-20 rushing TDs. Ridley (2012), BGE (2010, 2011), and Blount (2016) are the only players to have double digit TDs with the offense (all bolded). In no other year has a single RB accounted for half of the offense's rushing touchdowns (Maroney was close in 2009). I think I'm actually starting to circle back towards avoiding Gill. I think he's a talented RB, so I think there's certainly a chance he could be the 5th. I'm not sure how much I'm willing to pay on that chance though.
  13. If they think Brady only has another year and Jimmy is the long term answer at the position, they might. Right now, with the information I have available, I like Jimmy G (long-term) better than any rookie QB this year.
  14. Even then, 18 TDs is a lot for an RB. Only 3 RBs have done it in the last 10 years (2016 Blount, 2009 AP, and 2008 D Will)
  15. And in 2015, I grabbed Hopkins at the end of the fifth round even though his ADP was third round and every player in the league was attentive and knowledgeable about football. I just happened to be in a league with 10 people that didn't like Hopkins and 1 person who picked after me.. Sometimes, crazy value can happen (and it probably helped that this was a Texas league and everybody there was a Cowboys fan tired of Texans fans). Acknowledging your only going after a player if you get crazy value isn't unreasonable. Taking last year as an example, I really didn't like Melvin Gordon. I thought he had enough signs of T-Rich that I didn't want to touch him at his ADP. But he fell, so I was able to grab him a round and a half after his ADP. Identifying guys you're not crazy about but you'll grab if they fall can pay off big time. Not everyone will be able to get that value of course (otherwise it'd be market price), but almost anything is possible with a small group. By the same token, if you have a 3rd round grade on a guy, don't buy him if his ADP is second round just because that's his ADP.