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Everything posted by jbshaw

  1. Denver Broncos 2018 Outlook

    He also played with below average (arguably mad) O-line play, but had 2 quality receivers. Denver is a similar team painting with a broad brush. I don't think he's taking them to the playoffs. But he'll be better this year than McCarron, Flacco, Eli, Bradford/Glennon, and any starting rookies, and comparable to Tannehill, Dalton, and Trubisky. You can sprinkle in a few guys to taste, but factor in injuries and he has a respectable chance at finishing as a top 20 QB.
  2. 2018 Rookie RB Class

    They're often fun to watch because they're effective.
  3. 2018 Rookie RB Class

    I can certainly understand that. I guess I didn't get that Kamara experience after he tore up my college for 288 total yards on 26 total touches for 3 TDs (and we still won!). For me, it's watching the little oompa loompah run with ferocity against quality run defenses, while also demonstrating pass catching ability. He's nowhere near Kamara, but I do think he has potential to be a primary RB (something along the lines of Ray Rice-lite).
  4. 2018 Rookie RB Class

    Please stop talking about John Kelly. I want him in the second round. Don't know how you can watch him and not love him. That is all.
  5. Davante Adams 2018 Season Outlook

    Should add in my post above. "Painfully obvious to everyone [except Gruden]"
  6. Davante Adams 2018 Season Outlook

    It seems misplaced to focus on the first two years of a raw receiver's career coming out of a small school vs the two recent years of him actually being a good wide receiver. He's a proven red zone threat, and most importantly, has shown he can do it without Rodgers. I'm also having a hard time with the position that Jordy was a huge defensive draw in 2017. He was mediocre atheltically, and it was painfully obvious to everyone watching. You aren't going to be able to convince me that an NFL defensive coordinator looked at that team and decided to focus on Jordy instead of Adams.
  7. Derrick Henry 2018 Outlook

    I'm at work, with very inconsistent signal, so I'll try to circle back and provide more depth tonight at home. His total volume statistics say yes. Rate statistics, not so much. Murray was a good back running behind a great line. His rate statistics were worse than the same situation in 14 where I do think he was elite (top 5 real football back). It's close enough that I'm not going to call anyone crazy for arguing it, but it's not something that I've found convincing.
  8. 2018 Rookie WR Class

    Was just thinking it watching the couple 2017 games and then going to 2016 with Kizer. I'm of the opinion that if you're a terrible passer, you're a terrible QB. You can make up for not having a great arm as long as you're adequate, but that wasn't adequate. And before you think I'm hating on Notre Dame, I've been saying the same thing about my own college's QBs the last 3 years (previously alluded to Kyler Murray, Trevor Knight, and Kellen Mond). Give me a pocket passer over a "dual" threat (not to be confused with actual dual threat) every day, no matter how good a runner the "dual" threat is.
  9. Countering Bias in FFL Evaluations

    I read as much as I can, and I try to focus more on things I disagree with (within limits. If someone says something that is obviously factually wrong, I start to tune them out (especially when repeated), but as long as they're not too far out there, I don't disregard their opinion just because I disagree with it. The next step is to formulate a response explaining why I think they're wrong. If I can't, than it's a good sign I need to reevaluate my opinion. If I can, I try and pick out what causes me, a seemingly logical person, to disagree with the other seemingly logical person. It doesn't mean I necessarily write out that response. If I disagree with Matt Miller, I don't tweet him out and try and argue every little thing. If the other person just flat out won't see it my way (like any Giants fan and Eli), I just don't bother. But I think about what I'd say as an exercise. Now, if it's something that I feel is ludicrous (Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the draft [not highest potential, but best]), I just move on. And I'll be wrong on some of those. I'm okay with that.
  10. 2018 Rookie WR Class

    Sorry, got distracted. I actually hadn't. It's an interesting read for sure. At bare minimum, shows the dude has a work ethic when it comes to both the weight room and academia. This is probably going to sound crazy, but my head has alarm bells blaring. My university recently had a bad experience with an entitled little [bleepity bleep] who had been raised all his life to be an NCAA QB, with a similarly intense father, who came in and expected everything to be given to him. The coaching staff didn't bend over backwards enough to satisfy him and his father, but did too much and ticked off the QB who actually earned his spot. Long story short, two 5 star QBs left the school within a week. There's enough differences that it's not a great analogy, and at least Brown doesn't have the same internal political clout that this QB's father did, but that whole situation has me distrusting anything with remotely similar warning signs. The Mannings and Matthews have done just fine in the NFL, so I'm probably over-applying semi-personal experience. Like I said before, I can't interview the kid, and his issues aren't exactly as covered as Baker's or Rosen's "character deficiencies." The games I've watched (Stanford, LSU, Va Tech), it feels like he significantly slows down going into his breaks too often, and he doesn't make contested catches like I'd want a 6'5" guy. Still, he flashes the agility to be quick in the routes, and does have some really nice grabs that I wouldn't have expected him to catch. [Edit: And holy crap, Winbush is terrible.] All said, I think I'd be upset if the Cowboys drafted him at 50, but I'd still be excited about the potential. At 81 though, I think I'd be happy.
  11. 2018 Rookie WR Class

    I understand that, and I can honestly admit I don't watch or follow a ton of Notre Dame. I can easily be missing a large portion of the background on the kid. I live in Big12/SEC country, so I've heard more background on Washington, Ridley, Kirk, and Sutton. When I get a reporter/analyst I trust saying that he's been told something by teams, I take it at face value without that background to compare it to. The physical upside is certainly there. I just wish I had a better read on the guy. Haven't found a ton of press that goes into the guy off the field.
  12. 2018 Rookie WR Class

    You can be entitled and not dedicated to your craft and still be smart. You can speak 4 languages and still not give 100%. The nice thing is, it's reports from interviews at a singular event. For us fantasy players, we get to have more data points before we have to worry about drafting him. His draft position should tell us a lot about how much stock team's are putting into the reported interviews. If he goes in the second or third, at least one team wasn't worried about it. If he goes 4th+, I think it shows multiple teams view something as a red flag. For those of us that draft late, we also have offseason workout reports and possibly spring games to show the truth or lie of that report.
  13. Dez Bryant 2018 Season Outlook

    Not all stats are created equal. The stat does show Dez was at least capable, either through scheme or athleticism, of generating separation. It's just not necessarily a 1 to 1 with other guys on the list.
  14. 2018 Rookie QB Class

    Allen. Inaccurate and hasn't shown that he understands concepts like basic hot reads or throwing behind the blitz. Not an inability to execute, mind you, but I don't see him looking to do that on tape. Given what Jackson was able to do with Kizer (I actually think it was detrimental), I wouldn't be hopeful.
  15. Dez Bryant 2018 Season Outlook

    Stat doesn't necessarily mean much. Ryan will throw to a Julio with little separation. Rodgers will throw to Adams. Ben will throw it to either of his guys. Dak only throws to Dez when he has separation at the throw point. It inflates the statistic.
  16. Dez Bryant 2018 Season Outlook

    Have to agree with joshua on this one. Dez is the antithesis to anything we've seen work for the Pats. Beasley or Witten could work, but Dez's game doesn't translate. Although golf is probably right that 90% of casual fans would think it was a big move.
  17. Dez Bryant 2018 Season Outlook

    That's underselling Dak. Dak isn't Romo and had plenty of misses on his own, but he was giving Dez plenty of balls that fit what Romo described Dez liking. Dez just dropped them. Was a big case of both players not coming together. Question is was it because Dez lost a step, or for some other reason that can be fixed.
  18. Derrick Henry 2018 Outlook

    Elite is a strong word. He was good, but I don't think he was a top 5 real RB.
  19. Saquon Barkley 2018 Season Outlook

    We realize y'all (and us) want to talk about NFL draft prospects. For various reasons, we don't allow rookie player threads until that player is drafted or signed as a UDFA. Until such time, please use the positional threads for any discussion around rookie prospects.
  20. Derrick Henry 2018 Outlook

    Demarco Murray hasn't been an elite running back since 2014. I think mistakes are made when, in order to justify your position on a player, you have to strawman the opposition's point to make it something easier to argue against. Dion Lewis caps Henry's upside =/= Lewis will force Henry into a backup roll.
  21. Dez Bryant 2018 Season Outlook

    30th. Browns are 31st.
  22. 2018 Rookie QB Class

    It's more thinking one of those 4 QBs is the must avoid.
  23. Keelan Cole 2018 season outlook

    Why not both? (or all three) I still think Dede has higher upside. Dude was very good in college, and was injured early in the season. Given a full offseason, I expect him to come on strong this year (at least as strong as a Blake Bortles dependent WR can be). Haven't looked at ADP yet for redraft, but assuming similar price, I'm going Dede.
  24. 2018 Rookie QB Class

    Browns gonna Brown. I can understand taking Darnold. High character, good athleticism, accruate, just need to work on decision making, but he is only 20. I can understand taking Rosen. Wonderful mechanics, probably the safest on-field talent in the draft. Questions regarding his love of football (mostly bull feces) and his health, but if healthy hard to imagine he's not the best QB this draft. I can even sort of begin to understand Baker Mayfield. I haven't seen an analytics guy who doesn't have him as #1 QB by a significant margin. Very accurate, actually had a higher number of tight window throws than Darnold or Rosen, and fiery competitor. Questions about scheme, size, and maturity though. But you're telling me the Browns, who have missed on QB after QB after QB (to the point where I'm not sure I wasn't still in diapers the last time they had a good QB) are going to go for the project guy that doesn't look like he has any clue of how to run an offense or accurately throw a football? I know he's supposed to be another high character guy, but the on field product is just terrible.
  25. 2018 Rookie RB Class

    I'm actually okay with his size. 205 at 5'9" is a different animal than 205 at 6'0", and he runs with power. I'd never run him like Lynch, and would definitely prefer him as part of a committee, but I think he could carry a reasonable load on his own should his committee back go down.