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Everything posted by jbshaw

  1. I certainly don't want to spend top 24 price for him. He's a guy I am more willing to gamble on getting a td than probably any non wr1
  2. His floor certainly has him as a TD dependent WR. I think it's worth pointing out that some TD dependent guys are better bets than others. I look at Dez Bryant and don't call it an anomaly when he has double digit TDs (and he has in every season he's played a full 16. 9 in his 15 game season, 8 in his 13 game season, 3 in his nine game season with the Cassel/Weedon castle of suck, and 6 in his 12 game rookie season). He's an elite end zone threat. I look at Baldwin putting up the same number of TD's and call it a fluke because he hasn't shown it to date. Moncrief could very well settle into that 10ish TD per year mold of receiver given the other options available to Luck and the Colt's offensive philosophy.
  3. I'll defend CMike, and defend him as a value pick, but I wouldn't call him the starting RB. That's Montgomery. CMike owners have to hope for a Blount-lite role.
  4. Depends on who's in that list for me. Brown I can understand. I don't like Beckham. I like Evans as an Aggie. Green has the same problems as Julio. I don't consider anyone else close enough. I've actually been able to avoid a few decoy games from paying attention and being willing to bench him for decent options (and I'm not talking about my year where I had 4 of the top 5 wr's). It was something like a Crabtree option this past year. "Start your studs" can be both wonderful advice and a horrible absolute.
  5. We're still talking the #25 O-line in the league per PFF. Even if Luck isn't helping them, they're failing on their own. Bring that up into the 10-20 range before even thinking about spending a high pick on a non-generational talent at RB.
  6. Until they have at least an average line before spending a significant pick.
  7. Even The pats can't beat magical shenanigans.
  8. Coaching and free agent management would be my two big differences.
  9. Last I checked, the cowboys are one of the gold standards in the world when it comes to financial worth, and the best in football. Jerry made that value. Interesting tidbit, this millennium, the patriots have 63 pro bowls and 16 all pro selections from players they drafted. The cowboys have 62 and 17 (both second most in NFL, and tied with pats for highest combination). They've drafted reasonably well this side of y2k.
  10. I think you mean re-sign.
  11. He's missed 3 games in the last 3 years. 2013 was obviously bad as he missed 11. 2012 was a full season, and he missed 3 games in 2011. The only season that really kills him as a draft pick is 2013. His per game advantage is too high to be upset with him for missing a game or 2 in a season.
  12. Late round it wouldn't be awful if there's a good value on a guy they like. They certainly shouldn't be spending any first 2 day picks on one though. Of course, if their front office's track record can be believed, they'll probably take 2.
  13. Oh, the overexaggeration. He was a viable RB2 in Seattle. I don't like GB's situation around him and their offensive tendencies, but if I get him for flex/backup price, he could potentially be viable.
  14. I don't think that's fair. There's a lot of talented guys that don't get double digit TD's. Over the last decade, 82 receivers (apparently, this includes TEs) have made that list, or about 8 per year. Last year, only Jordy, Evans, Brown, Beckham, and Adams made it. Tedd Ginn made it in 2015 but Julio didn't.
  15. It is. Corrected is in my post above.
  16. Julio's lowest season in that link is over 1400 yards. His average then can't be 1300 something
  17. The injury thing was perception, and holy hell was I wrong. I know he has a fair number of decoy games in there, but I swore he had missed more than 3 games the past 3 seasons. I took your numbers for granted, but I double checked them this time, and I have a problem with your math. I have no idea where you're getting your numbers from. Below are there stats for the last 3 seasons. (year average) [per game average] Julio's last 45 games he has 323/4873/20 (108/1624/7) [7.18/ 108.29 / 0.44] Hilton's last 47 games he has 242/3917/18 (81/1306/6) [5.19/ 83.34 / 0.38] If you're in standard, that's a 2.5 point difference per game, which is pretty big. If you're in PPR, that's a 4.5 point difference per game, which I have no frame of reference for.
  18. Julio is a better fantasy asset because he's putting that production up in less games. He's getting injured more often than Hilton, but Julio + replacement WR instead of zero's is significantly better than Hilton.
  19. Just happens to be? He has 4 of the top 6 rushing TD seasons for a QB since entering the league. RG3's rookie season is #4, and Dak tied him for the #5 spot.
  20. Dang, that is a huge boost. I'd expect regression on some of the longer plays, but even then a season outscoring Brown certainly puts him in round 1 conversation for that particular format. In non-return yard leagues though, a third is way too much, let alone a first.
  21. I don't play in return yard leagues, so I'm not really familiar with how much of a boost they are to a player's stats, but are you seriously saying you'd take Tyreek Hill in the late first round of your fantasy draft, or am I completely misunderstanding?
  22. But....but... Cowboys fan.... Giants....
  23. To the apartment complex, yes. We had the town's only lazy river around the pool. Seemed like half the team lived there. Honestly was too much of a party atmosphere for little old accountant me. You know, the Manning question is tough for me. I've made no secret that I think Manning is circling the toilet on his way down. He graded worse than Blake Bortles the last 2 seasons according to PFF, and that's taking out the impact of a slightly below average (total grade) O-line. I dont' pay so I don't know how that breaks into run vs pass pro, but they weren't exactly running over guys. I'm not all that worried about Marshall, but Manning is the factor I'd worry about if he falls low enough that I feel I have to grab him.
  24. Go back to his second season and don't apply hindsight bias.