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Everything posted by jbshaw

  1. While it remains to be seen how much of a role Gill will have, Blount had 2 weeks by my count that he didn't hit 9 points in standard. If you say he never exceeded 9 when doing so, he would STILL be a back end RB2/high flex on a PPG basis. I don't think Gill will be drafted as more than a flex, so I think that provides adequate value at worse and great value at best. According to DVOA, Gill was the most efficient runner in the NFL last season. Even if you write off a pretty chunk of that to coming off the bench against tired defenses worn down by McCoy, and discount the fact that Brady is about as much of a run threat as Peyton Manning, he still is probably a more complete back than Blount. I'm not expecting top 7 production, but I don't expect bad either.
  2. His name isn't as punny as Blount though, so he loses a little value in the team namesake department for me.
  3. Depends on how they try and use him. If they try and use him as Blount, I could potentially see it working (and being somewhat fantasy relevant, although I'm not buying at any price I think he'll go at). If they try and use him as DJ/Bell, it'll be awful.
  4. Good lines supposedly are built inside out, especially when it comes to the run game. Whitworth is playing against father time. Even if they grab Robinson (not worth their first rounder, won't be there at second rounder), he performs as advertised (unlike say, Greg Robinson or Joeckel, or even Jake Matthews as a rookie), they still won't have a capable interior. Look at the Cowboys. They still had a meh line even with one of the better LT's in the game in Smith. What put them over the top was getting an elite center and guard to pair with an elite LT, quality guard, and decent RT.
  5. Saints means I'm avoiding at all costs. Doesn't have a good history as a pass catching back or shotgun back, and Ingram is enough to force a committee even if they change their run scheme.
  6. Zeke. Think he had a bigger impact on the defense last year than Ramsey, allowing them to play at an NFL average total level because they were on the field so much less. Without a couple offensive penalties, there's a decent chance the Cowboys get to at least the NFC championship game.
  7. As of the end of bowl season though, the injury was known and his price changed, so not really relevant to the draft discussion IMO. I'm a Miller fan, and he had Henry at 2.25 in his final mock draft last year. Kiper had the Cowboys taking Zeke at 2.03 (lol), with Henry falling to 2.13 (so yes, Ramsey and Zeke probably would have been the best if you accept mocks are remotely accurate *rolls eyes*) McShay's final mock is locked behind ESPN insider if someone wants to check that. Walterfootball had Henry going to the Seahawks at 2.25. CBS had Henry going 2.13 Not exhaustive by any stretch, but there seems to be a consensus among draft "experts" that Henry would have been available.
  8. My first season ever playing fantasy football, I paid to draft Brady. He was QB14 among QBs with at least 10 starts in PPG (to get rid of McCown and Bradford). The next year? QB8, sandwiched between Ryan and Tannehill. Post deflategate, he's killed it as QB2 and tied QB2/3. But half the years I've been playing fantasy football, he hasn't been all that remarkable. The other half he's killed it. I think there's a legitimate question on if the last 2 years are what you expect going forward, especially considering he'll have finished flirting and married the big 40 by the time the season starts. It's certainly possible he goes ham and destroys the league with new weapons on his way to Super Bowl win 7 (that's right, he's going to somehow win 2 this year). There's also a possibility where he's content to ride less than ideal statistical production to a Super Bowl like in the 2014/15 season. I'm not paying premium for that.
  9. I guarantee you Belichick knows this. And the fact he hasn't changed his asking price is speaking to me.
  10. Fantasypros has him at a full 4 points less per game for 2015 and a full 3 less for 2016, so I think we have different numbers (you'd expect that to be somewhat reflected in other QBs point scores as well). According to fantasypros, you're looking at just under a 4 point advantage in Brady over QB10 in 2016, and that SIGNIFICANTLY decreases the last several years before that. I think Brady will be good, but I don't think he'll be first/second round good. I don't even expect QB1 or QB2. Last year was INSANE with how efficient he was. I think interceptions almost have to regress. Given that I think he's going to go in the first 2 rounds in most drafts (because people aren't always logical with name value), I don't think he provides return. Heck, he was a first round pick in my draft last year when he was going to be missing his first 4 games. No one has bigger name value than Brady
  11. It's an unfair comparison if we're not also considering Smith, (although we're much too early for that). The Cowboys have a good young safety in Jones. CB is a big issue because of free agency, but they had perfectly competent corners last year in Scandrick, Carr, Brown, and Claiborne (the only PFF ranking I can find wasn't for a full season, but Dallas had 2 CB's in the top 25 with no Ramsey whatsoever). CB is deep this year, so there is a respectable chance that Zeke, Smith, top 2 round CB this year is better than Ramsey, Henry, and a top 2 round linebacker this year.
  12. Henry ran behind a very similar line and managed a full half yard per carry less than Zeke. I also think Zeke has more potential in the passing game than Henry, but he hasn't been used that way so far this season, and has (to my eyes at least) far more acceleration with similar effective power to Henry.
  13. Since it looks like we get Smith this year, I'm tentatively saying Elliot + Smith.
  14. It certainly changes the part of it "never having been done before." As far as the 21 qualifier, I find that almost useless. It requires an early high school graduation to make it work, regardless of the individuals talent level. Given that he didn't blow up his sophomore year with a more experienced qb, is lean towards that showing it's a completely random fact with little predictive value.
  15. Mike Evans turned 21 August his rookie year and finished with over 1000 yards. I know you never responded when that was brought up last year, but it was done LITERALLY THE YEAR BEFORE AMARI DID IT. Beckham just misses the list because he turned 22 in November of his rookie season. Amari isn't those guys (only a select few are), but he's also not being drafted like those guys, so it's a bit of a moot point. I don't think he's anything special in standard at a round 2 ADP, but I also don't think he's an awful pick there. He's just about par for the course.
  16. But then I also have to type "vert." That's too hard!
  17. They mainly use tape review from what I understand of their methodology, while FO is about statistical analysis. While I'm a big fan of stats, I don't think they capture line play independently well. For FO, if the RB runs into the back of the center and falls on his but for a yard loss, but they opened a decent hole between the LG and LT, the line is penalized because of the RB's poor play. Alternatively, if they open a gaping hole and the RB only has to make a single player miss and doesn't, they're graded differently than if the RB made that player miss. PFF introduces the subjectivity of the tape reviewer trying to decide how the play was supposed to go and then grading on if the individual lineman he's grading executed it appropriately, but a pure missed/beaten block gets recorded without any regard for what the RB did.
  18. It's not just the O-line. Hyde averaged mid 4's running behind a similar line. Prosise was over 5 behind a worse one. I'm lazy and don't want to pull out a calculator, but Michael had over 4 behind a worse line. PFF only graded DJ's O-line one spot better than LA, and had Ajayi's and Gordon's worse than the Rams. Even if you have a slightly different opinion of the O-line, Gurley horribly underperformed from his peers. It's a lot of risk IMO banking on first half of rookie year Gurley instead of last season and a half Gurley.
  19. I don't agree with every single pick, but it's a pretty good WR draft this year. Going for a complementary guy like Reynolds in the third or later could give them the supporting WR they arguably need while still helping to begin the defensive rebuild.
  20. That's right around where I have him. Clear preseason WR1, although in the back half of that. I think he improves, but I've thought the same thing before of other similarly talented guys who had sophomore slumps (or stayed about the same) so I don't spend heavily betting on improvement.
  21. TD's, I'd disagree. Dez is a RZ God. He was on pace for 10 TD's on a full 16 games, and that is below what his career has set as to expectations (and partially a function of Dak's ultra-conservative decision making in early season. Post injury return, Dez was on a 13-14 TD pace for a full season.) Thomas will have more catches, and I'd guess slightly more yards just because I think the offensive pie is bigger, but TDs I'll take Dez if we're assuming 16 games each. Thomas had 9, which is nothing to sneeze at. But unless you see most of Cooks TD work going to Thomas instead of an amalgamation of the other weapons and Cooks replacement, I don't understand 15 TD optimism.
  22. I can say the same thing about Baldwin and PPR when it comes to elite. As far as CBs, the Giants, Browns, and Bears were the only bad games last year. He got hurt early in Chicago, Cleveland sold out and almost literally left every other teammate uncovered, and the Giants shut down the entire offense. Looking at next year, I only have 3 "oh crap" games on the schedule (Cards, Seahawks, and Broncos), + the Giants defense which is likely to be top notch again (so call it 5). 2014 and 2015 suggest the Seahawks game won't go well, although the defense has slipped somewhat. 2014 Arizona suggests it'll be bad. They haven't played the Broncos post upgrade, so who knows. 2016 suggests the Giants will be bad. The other 11 games look like a cakewalk though. If you play 1 game, yes, that's true. If you play 12 games, that's not really any different from 16 unless you just have an absolutely massive game, which Dez didn't have. But standard, I think your default case, 16 game, steady state seasons Dez should be higher than Thomas in standard. You have to start projecting growth/regression/injuries to be able to place Thomas ahead of him. That's certainly reasonable to do, but it's not an automatic thing, especially with how well Dez played once he established chemistry with Dak. He only had 2 bad games the second half of the season: 1 against Cleveland who could not cover any other person on the team because they sold out on Dez, and 1 against the Giants where the entire offense could barely do anything right. PPR, that reverses, with Thomas>Dez, and I know that's what you like to play.
  23. He beat him (and Baldwin) in PPG last year, and was a top 6 WR the second half of the season (all in standard). If Dak can maintain second half of rookie season play, Dez is elite. His lack of volume hurts him a little in PPR, where he falls beyond Thomas 16.0 PPG to 15.0 PPG across the whole of 2016. (Shrinks to 16.3 vs 15.8 for second half of season). If you want to knock him for injuries, that's your prerogative. For his career, he's played seasons of 12, 15, 16, 16, 16, 9, and 13 games (in chronological order starting with 2010).
  24. I'm a preselected volunteer, not hired. On here so much because I got tired of working Big 4 accounting and am relying on the safety net savings to make sure I find the right job going forward. And with Impreza's confirmation, I would say I am paying attention And that attention will make me rule the league, mwahahahahahaha (hopefully).
  25. Can you expand on that please? I don't see anything on bleacher, my push notifications, or anything new on google.