jbshaw

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Everything posted by jbshaw

  1. Mike Evans 2018 outlook

    Add in an ankle sprain missing multiple weeks, a college broken ankle (basketball), and a college knee injury, and it's a little more. I'm not talking DND territory by any stretch. It just moves him clearly to the bottom of the Thomas/Evans type tier. We're talking difference in viewing him as a Mercedes AMG among high-end Porsche's and Lambos. I'm not calling him a Ford. (Personal disclaimer, I'd rather drive a Ford pickup than any of those cars, but I know I'm not winning a race).
  2. San Francisco 49'ers 2018 Season Outlook

    For context, Drew Brees lead the rest of the QBs with 8.09. CJ Beathard had 6.38 ypa. Ajusted Ypa, Carson Wentz was #4 with 8.28. Josh McCown was 14 with 7.3 (although Aaron Rodgers checked in at 7.2, significantly behind the rest of the "good" QBs)
  3. 2018 WR Class

    Guarantees Cowboys will take him.
  4. 2018 WR Class

    Edited in above, but Captain Kirk. I like Sutton as a potential Jeffrey/Evans type, but a lot is going to depend on how he runs. Ridley I'm just TERRIFIED of his build. While he's taller, he's scrawny. Great skills. But I'm worried about durability. Washington is definitely a guy I wouldn't be shocked if he was the top receiver when it's all said and done.. DJ Moore is sneaky (50% of receiving offense this year!) Very similar to Kirk as a prospect, although I don't know on the character (Kirk is absolutely sterling), but he doesn't have 3 years of great production. Of course, the wildcard is Antonio Callaway. Was widely regarded as a top wide receiver prospect in this draft class. Real (and obvious) risk with him is character/legal.
  5. 2018 WR Class

    The 2014 class was ridiculous. It's like the 2011 edge rusher class or the 2012 QB class. I actually like this class. I only think there's one star player at WR (and it's a total homer pick and relying on projection and an assumption of bad development coaching in college), but there's a lot of guys I think can be productive WR2 or WR3 types. Late edit: With that said, Kirk is my guy this year. I'm an Aggie, so I'm sure that plays into it. The dude comes into an SEC team with receiver depth and immediately grabs over a quarter of the receiving work as a true freshman. Despite what the NFL.com combine profile says, the guy is fast and agile. He has good hands, although right now he does have a tendency to body catch. He has a work ethic to match anyone in the NFL, so I'm a little willing to overlook technique flaws that he can clean up (especially with good coaching. A&M doesn't have a great recent track record of developing players.) Combine that with questions with the other top candidates, and Kirk is the one guy I feel confident in. I feel safe about him developing into at least an elite slot option, similar to Landry. At his absolute best, he can be somewhere in between Hilton and OBJ.
  6. Mike Evans 2018 outlook

    Allen has a more extensive injury history. Only reason I wouldn't consider him in that tier.
  7. Kenyan Drake 2018 Season Outlook

    2nd or 3rd round hype seems ridiculous (and I say that as someone who has him locked up in dynasty). Maybe this is just me trying to overcompensate for being a homer, but based on how they used him when they had Williams, I just don't see Miami as trusting in him as a significant majority running back. Maybe they sign Hyde or draft someone else, but I just can't see him getting more than 50-60% of the work there, even though he has the talent to. I'd love to be wrong, and this is more gut feeling than anything, but I don't confidently see him as being a top 15 RB next year, and he has to be in order to justify the top 30 draft pick hype.
  8. San Francisco 49'ers 2018 Season Outlook

    Numbers don't lie, but the problem isn't always in the arithmetic. Sometimes, we're using the wrong numbers though. Passer rating is a stat that means very little because it only judges on a subset of the QB's snaps (typically a large subset, but still fails to account for the entire picture) and doesn't distinguish between the QBs value added and the WR's value added. Kaep posts a decent passer rating because he doesn't take chances with the ball. It leads to an inflated completion percentage and reduced INT rate, but it fails to take into account when he should have passed/thrown away and instead scrambles for a loss/minimal gain. A throwaway hurts your passer rating. A 30 yard sack fumble doesn't. https://www.dawgsbynature.com/2013/12/4/5175398/why-passer-rating-is-not-a-good-stat Is Case Keenum a better passer than Aaron Rodgers? Is McCown a better passer than Roethlisberger or Cousins? Is Andy Dalton better than Cam Newton or Mariota? Jimmy's passer rating puts him within a point of Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, and Russel Wilson, all guys who can actually win with their arms. Obviously, actually comparing him to two of those guys is blashpemy. But when you add watching the tape, you understand that It's 6 games. A lot can change going forward, both for good and ill. But I'm a lot closer to saying that Jimmy's 96.2 passer rating is a fair representation of his actual merit as a passer than Alex Smith's 104.7 (the best in the league, which should really illustrate something), Josh McCown's 94.5, or Deshone Kizer's anything but zero.
  9. Kirk Cousins 2018 Season Outlook

    What help did he have? Quality wide receivers? That's laughable. A reliable TE? That's laughable. A quality O-line? They were in the hospital. Chris Thompson is an animal, but the running game wasn't A grade. The only thing on that team that gave them a chance every week was Cousins. He's unquestionably a top 10 QB in the league right now. And he offered the team a sub 20M contract that they turned down. This isn't a matter of him wanting to break the bank. This is a matter of a guy wanting financial security, something reasonably close to market, and an organization that realizes how good he is.
  10. San Francisco 49'ers 2018 Season Outlook

    The best part is they have so much money, they can frontload the contract and have him be cheap in years where the cap might matter more. Throwing a 20M cap hit in 2018 doesn't kill the team's ability to field a team. Robinson reminds me of Dez in his prime. If he got to the point where he has a no doubts competent passer like Jimmy G appears to be, he's a threat for top 3 WR. He's already posted a top 4 year with Bortles.
  11. Jarvis Landry 2018 Season Outlook

    Partially depends on what the QB situation is and how I feel about my roster by that point. If it's Cousins, who I think is at worst a top 10 QB, I'm very tempted to swing for the fences with Gordon. 2013 was a very enjoyable season. But if I think I went riskier at RB and QB1 (2 QB league), Landry's safety in Miami is tempting. He won't be WR1, but he's almost guaranteed to be within WR15 (and likely within WR10)
  12. Derrick Henry 2018 Outlook

    He has 321 career carries. That's more than enough to establish a baseline as to his strengths and weaknesses.
  13. Derrick Henry 2018 Outlook

    Not a lot of RBs, but Ingram underperformed until the last couple years, and Bush was inconsistent across his career. Those are the only 2 other RB winners this millenium. If you want to extend it to all Heisman winners, Manziel, RG3, Bradford, Tebow, Troy Smith, Matt Leinart, Jason White, Eric Couch, and Chris Weinke show it's nowhere near something that predicts NFL success. But let's broaden the pool. Let's look at the Walker award for the best NCAA rb. Your examples predate the award, but let's just assume the most outstanding player in football would also win their positional award. This millenium, you have LT (+), Luke Staley (-), Larry Johnson (+), Chris Perry (-), Cedric Benson (-), Reggie Bush (+). Darren McFadden (-), Shonn Greene (-), Toby Gerhart (-), Lamichael James (-), Trent Richardson (-), Montee Ball (-), Andre Williams (-), and Melvin Gordon (+). 4 good players to guys who had mediocre (or worse) careers. College production does not automatically lead to NFL success. And watching the NFL tape, I don't see a guy who has been consistent enough to be an elite fantasy option.
  14. Jarvis Landry 2018 Season Outlook

    I don't think that's fair to Tannehill. He's not good deep, but he's at worst adequate in the short game that Landry thrives on. While I think Landry won't take a huge hit, situation still will matter. Luckily, I don't think any of the teams with cap space and WR needs are in a situation where I worry about their QB not being able to use a short/intermediate area dynamo effectively. Assuming the Browns get a halfway decent QB. Gordon with the right mindset has proven the potential to match Brown (adequate QB required), although I don't know what the chances of that happening are. Maybe I'm just in too much of a dynasty thought process right now, but I'll take the 25 year old Adams who just showed he can produce with Hundley. Rodgers comes back this season and they've already signed him to a significant money contract. One/both of Cobb/Nelson figure to be gone for cap room. I'm bullish on Adams to finish top 6 this season. Not to say I don't like Landry. He's a safe bet for high end WR2 production (at worst, mid WR1 upside) at low WR2 price.
  15. Derrick Henry 2018 Outlook

    Heisman has nothing to do with NFL success. With a line of 4 future NFL first round draft picks, a future top 10 draft pick receiver, another reliable receiver that fell in the draft because of concussions, retiring before preseason even began, a certain Hesiman winner from the SEC made defenses look silly, constantly gutting them for long runs and breaking tackles like no tomorrow. And no, I'm not talking about Henry. That player had a remarkably short NFL career, partially because he wasn't a special talent anymore (and some serious character issues). Compared to NFL talent, Henry is subpar in short area acceleration and agility. Compared to college talent, he was a top 5 guy at his position at worst (and played with a Tide O-line in front of him). As to next year, Bell, Gurley, Elliot, and DJ enter the season healthy. Barring a half year negotiation holdout from Bell, Henry will be hard pressed to break into the top 5 with Hunt, Cook, Fournette, Kamara/Ingram, Barkley, Michel, and Guice all fairly forseeably in the running. In PPR, McCaffrey gets added to the list as well. Until I see evidence of Henry being more than an A+ plodder on the majority of his plays, the hype has driven his price way too high. Sure, you can jump in paying a premium and hope everything goes just right, but that's not the way I like to draft. If he goes after all of the names above (possibly dependent on where Michel/Guice land), I'll take a shot. I know most of my league mates think he's subpar, so maybe I will own him. But I'm not taking him off the board in round 2. There's too many other options I feel better about.
  16. Derrick Henry 2018 Outlook

    % I don't recall. Crowell had 206 carries, Powell had 178, Henry had 176, and Blount had 173. As to DHC, receptions aren't runs, so of course I didn't count a 66 yard reception in runs over 60+ yards. Even then, we're talking about 3 plays on the year out of ~200 touches. Henry is fast in a straight line when he has the ability to build up to it. I think he's probably one of the better guys in the NFL on a 100 yard sprint in pads. But he isn't very agile, and he doesn't accelerate fast. That short area explosion leads to the repeatable chunk plays, and he doesn't have it. The high end speed (without quickness) only matters once the last defender misses or coverage completely misses you.
  17. Derrick Henry 2018 Outlook

    Love the cherry picking of the 60+ yard runs, which are incredibly rare to begin with. 2 runs all season is the basis of him being explosive. If you reduce that back to something in the realm of 10+ yard runs, Henry drops to a mediocre 20th, tied with the likes of Blount, Bilal Powell, and Latavius Murray and behind Crowell. That's not adjusted for per carry, but quick mental math doesn't show favorably for Henry as having elite repeatable explosive play numbers.
  18. Antonio Brown 2018 Season Outlook

    I'm going to be a bit contrarian here (largely because I don't think there's much debate on his performance the last few years). Brown turns 30 this summer, and Big Ben isn't exactly a spring chicken. We've seen in the past that Brown can become a fantasy JAG with a subpar backup QB (not a knock on him. Most WRs would so so). While I have a hard time not looking at Brown as the #1 receiver even with those considerations, in a standard or half PPR league it's enough for me to pursue an elite RB first, and MAYBE, just maybe I'll talk myself into another receiver by preseason.
  19. Saquon Barkley 2018 Season Outlook

    I just want to leave this here for the people concerned about Cleveland. Duke Johnson was RB15 in half PPR (better in full).
  20. Due to the large number of CSB posts the last couple days, I looked for this and discovered we don't already have a 2017 edition. For those of you who are new, when you feel the need to brag about your individual team, your awesome value picks, taking advantage of your league mates in lopsided trades, or whatever else strikes your fancy, this is the one and only place you can go in the fantasy football talk thread. So if you're like me in 2015 and want to constantly brag about how you drafted 4 of the top 5 WR's to end the season, or want to talk about the amazing luck of someone in your league, bring it here.
  21. Dez Bryant 2017 Season Outlook

    He's actually attempted a decent number. He's tried where most receivers prefer them. He's tried where Dez supposedly prefers them (per Romo). Just haven't been able to connect, even on well placed balls (which Dak doesn't always give him). A lot of shooting past each other.
  22. 12-17-17 Patriots @ Steelers Gameday Thread

    The sticking point is controlling through contact with ground is part of what they've used to define possession. You don't posses if you're not able to subsequently control it. And football move is now a dinosaur. Now, we have the much more clear and objective (sarcasm) until you've clearly established yourself as a runner.
  23. Kirk Cousins 2017 Outlook

    This league (which I think is just regular old yahoo .04, 4, -1), they both have the same number of 20+, Brady actually has the 2 thirty point games, and both have a single game under 10. Very similar consistency wise. Cousins better at hitting the high point in his 20's (while Brady's were a little on the lower side, while Brady was better at keeping his dips below a little higher than Cousins. So what's more important to you? More 25+ games, or less 20-?
  24. Kirk Cousins 2017 Outlook

    Interesting stat. I didn't set up the league, but I don't think there are any special settings for us. Tom Brady through 13 weeks? 243.68 points Kirk Cousins through 13 weeks? 230.66 points. As close to 1 PPG as possible.