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Everything posted by jbshaw

  1. It affects them all equally, but without a similar bump for other positions, a Rodgers it brees throwing 35tds gets another 20 points over replacement value of a qb throwing 25. That is not insignificant.
  2. Of course that's the million dollar question. If he's 80-90% of Jamal Charles, he's one of the better backs in the league, and the only reason to use another back is to keep Charles fresh. If he hasn't healed well, he's an average-ish (depending on how badly he hasn't healed) option with durability issues, and CJ gets more work.
  3. Very optimistic. Not a big Walter Football fan in terms of agreeing with his take, although I do get a kick out of his strong reactions. With that said, Gil is multidimensional. He's not DJ, but he's not Blount either.
  4. Because he has the physical tools. And that's all that ever matters in scouting. Russel>Brady after all, right?
  5. 30 career (3 years) receptions on a team that didn't have all that much talent outside of Evans moving to a QB with less volume statistics than the previous one. It'd have to be a homer-based lotto ticket or very deep league for me to bite.
  6. I have to be very generous with some teams to get them to what I would call as 7 losses. Like most teams, they'll drop some they shouldn't, and maybe win one or 2 they should, but 8-8 seems ludicrously low as the expectation.
  7. Probably depends on what source you're using. Maclin hasn't been cut all that long. Depending on how they calculate ADP, there could still be a significant chunk of drafters who drafted while Maclin was a Chief included in that average.
  8. It depends heavily on what you called failed. Hardy is an obvious failure. McClain was a long-term failure, but given the financial capital invested in him, he was a resounding success. He was a better LB in the league when he was on for the year. Gregory. Another failure, but at low cost. Given his talent level, it's a risk worth taking every time IMO. Lawrence. Forgive me if I'm missing out on something here, but he's had the one NFL suspension and dealt with injuries. When on field, he's been capable. So I look at that as a 50/50 success rate, with one of the failures coming at a discounted price. If Smith turns out, that's an example of the philosophy in action. Bryant was a problem prospect. Sean Lee was a second round pick with injury history that's panned out. If you pick out the failures and insist on stratospheric heights rather than quality starts, any team's strategy is going to have an awful success rate.
  9. When it comes to individual players, I don't use what NFL teams didn't do as a means of evaluating players. IMO, the 2 best QBs of all time were passed over multiple times by multiple people (Brady and Montana). Brown was passed over by every team. Dak was passed over by every team. Wilson was passed over by every team. David Johnson was passed over by every team, and Leveon Bell was to a lesser degree. Rodgers was passed over by something like 2/3 of the league. If I think a guy has talent, I don't let NFL team's actions change my opinion about it. Personnel decisions can be useful for trying to discern what that team plans on doing opportunity-wise, but a well paid highly pursued "meh" is still a "meh" and a passed over talent is still a talent. In Pryor's case, I think he's a talent. The Redskins bought him for well above backup money, and he's going to a situation where there's not a Jones, Brown, Bryant, Thomas, Nelson, etc. to overcome. As a 4th/5th round value play hoping for the upside giving you a top end WR2, I like him. As a 3rd round pick where you're paying at the level of his max upside, I don't.
  10. Schefter is reporting that they'll do it if they can't move him in the next few days. I don't think they have Decker secured for awhile. If they're already committed to the long-term game, going into 2017 with an asset that's only going to go away doesn't make much sense. Better to get what they can for him now and let some young (cheap) blood try and get some experience.
  11. I think PFF's drop rate does take into account if a ball was catchable or not. But $1500 a year is too much for my blood. Using a free site, it looks like Pryor only had 4 drops on 140 targets, so it's not a lack of hands at least. AJ Green had a higher drop percentage. https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2016/
  12. If you can't play with Tom Brady anymore, Aaron Rodgers isn't a bad consolation prize. Might be my favorite TE target with the move depending on where he lands (ADP wise).
  13. In which the RBs combined had a whopping 4 TDs (and the O-line played like a good unit, and the defense was one of the best units in football giving the offense good field position and ample opportunities). .
  14. The best "WR" on the team only got 3 TDs last year. Benjamin got 7, but no other player got more than 3. There was only 1 RB receiving TD all year (albeit, with a lack of weapons). I don't expect McCaffrey to score a ton (especially on that front) simply because there isn't a history of any player or group of players on the team fulfilling that function. Maybe they carve out a role just for him this year, but I'd rather not count on a team doing something new for my fantasy players drafted in the first several rounds.
  15. Just about every team passed on Derek Carr (don't know who traded out of first round his year, if any). Every team passed up on Prescott multiple times, including the Cowboys. Wentz was a divisive prospect, and honestly the Browns weren't close to bringing in a potential franchise QB and giving him any sort of chance to succeed (I'd argue they still aren't, and were better off continuing to strengthen the team while taking a flier on a project QB). Every draft every team fails on some prospects. Every team passed Antonio Brown. Every team passed on Tom Brady. Most teams passed on Aaron Rodgers. It's not a fundamental failure of their scouting departments the majority of the time. Worse prospects can overcome their deficiencies and become all time greats/elite players. Phenomenal prospects can simply have already peaked and amount to nothing. Cleveland HAS sucked on scouting historically. But passing on 3 players (especially when you can't even judge the alternatives yet) is a poor argument.
  16. Even if they got Kaep, that would probably still be the case. It's a team good enough they can probably weather a short term injury (especially with a quality backup like Kaep). But long-term, Wilson is too much to replace. He's not Brady or Rodgers, but in my book he's in that next tier of RL QBs.
  17. What is night and day Alex?
  18. If it was still the previous coaching staff, I could see it. But with Gase there, they didn't exhibit the same refusal to use RBs as whoever was there before (legitimately can't remember).
  19. Wait until he's just okay (because he's a rookie from a particularly poor defensive conference for pete's sake!). Then neither side is going to feel wrong and are going to keep harping about either the promise they see in him or the failings that keep him from being better than okay. Or watch him be bad at real football but a decent fantasy play (a la rookie T-rich, rookie Gordon). Then this thread will be very fun (read as a headache).
  20. As a Cowboys homer who plays standard, I am. He's going to finish close enough to DJ or Bell barring injury. PPR, I'm taking one of the other ones (or if I'm not a Cowboys homer).
  21. I had a low speed accident when I was 17 (probably less than a 10 mph difference between cars. Airbags didn't deploy). My neck and back were stiff for days. It's easy to see the Cowboys being cautious after something not serious (I have no idea what the accident was like).
  22. He was the passenger here, so I don't hold it against him as much unless the driver was acting recklessly. But yeah, I'd always prefer my players to be closer to Dak in news (ie, rooting for his alma mater's basketball team, going fishing, and working) than Zeke.
  23. To be fair, he finished ahead of all but Cousins last year, and was within half a PPG of Cousins. I don't draft him high because I consider regression a possibility, especially with the defenses on board this year, but history supports it.
  24. That's not DJ. It's Bell. In terms of quality, about as close to potato/potahto as it gets.
  25. Rookies this millenium over 500 yards on the season as a TE (as opposed to 273 who have done it period as a TE). http://pfref.com/tiny/KkM6w Somehow, Calvin Johnson is included in there, so we only have 9 TEs this millenium. I'll pass on expecting a rookie to be anything more than replacement level.