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munde53 last won the day on November 15 2018

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About munde53

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  1. One guy spends his off season assaulting women.....the other spends his off season helping homeless youth.....
  2. It's the exact same coach so I'm not sure why you think things would change for the worse in terms of Chubb's usage. Take if for what it's worth, but Chubb has a much higher SPARQ score/percentile athlete when compared to McCaffrey (98th percentile for Chubb vs. 30th for McCaffrey). In terms of PFF grades, Chubb had a better rookie season than McCaffrey (87.1 for Chubb vs. 83.6 for McCaffrey) and in fact Chubb led all RBs in 2018 in PFF's grading metrics. McCaffrey's PFF grade from 2018 was 83.0 so at least according to their metrics he performed about the same as a 2nd year pro compared to his rookie year. The difference really came in volume. Every scoring system is different but since you brought up fantasy points, in standard scoring Chubb averaged .82 points per touch as a rookie while McCaffrey averaged .75 as a rookie. In PPR leagues sure McCaffrey will probably be more valuable based on receiving volume but we also haven't seen Chubb's ceiling in the receiving game. On a side note, I don't think a guy who catches 100 balls and rushes 200 times should automatically be 50 points more valuable than a guy who rushes 300 times and catches 50 balls. Chubb dominated the NFL in elusiveness rating and led the league in yards after contact according to PFF. He didn't just lead other rookie RBs, he led the entire NFL. He also ranked #3 in forced miss tackles per touch so it's not as if his large breakaway runs skewed those stats. Chubb's 4.47 yards after contact and .231 missed tackles forced per attempt are both rookie record according to PFF. So yes, in terms of rookie seasons I think Chubb's was better than McCaffrey's. I also don't buy that unless Chubb starts catching 75+ balls he can't get into the top 5 RB talk. Zeke only caught 32 balls as a rookie and would've been a lock as a top 3 or so pick the following year if not for a looming suspension. He then followed his rookie year up with a 2.6 reception per game average which only comes out to 42 receptions through 16 weeks and yet he was a top 4 draft pick in every league in 2018. If Chubb catches ~50 balls he will be a top 5 fantasy RB in 2019.
  3. The problem with fantasy football related debates is that they are in general heavily weighted by a "what have you done for me lately" mentality and only look at stats from the previous year(s) as a predictor for future production. People often forget that rookies take time to fully assimilate to the NFL thus rookie production isn't always a good predictor for future production. In terms of 2019 preseason fantasy ranks, of course McCaffrey will be ranked ahead of Chubb, that goes without saying. However, Chubb is a better overall athlete than McCaffrey and had more success as a rookie. So if Chubb takes a similar step forward as McCaffrey did after his rookie season the sky is the limit for Chubb. Similar to the Panthers with McCaffrey, the Browns coaching staff seems willing and wanting to ride Chubb (giggity). People seem to keep forgetting that Chubb is the guy who when at Georgia made everyone forget about Gurley and if not for a freak injury may have become the best RB in Georgia history.
  4. Jordan Howard should never be referenced when talking about Chubb.
  5. Last year there were 9 RBs who had an average ADP in the first round of 12 team leagues with an additional 6 going in the second and 5 more in the third. That's 20 running backs taken in the first three rounds. Current ADP rankings has 17 running backs going within the first three rounds 11 going in the first two, and 8 going in the first round alone (which is about average for recent years). So if you're saying you wouldn't take him until the 4th round, who are the 17 running backs you'd take ahead of him? If you're saying you wouldn't take him in the 3rd round, who are the 11 running backs you'd take ahead of him? Current ADP has Chubb at RB9 and being taken as the 15th overall pick. I think that's about right at this point but I would not be surprised to see him sneak into the 1st round closer to actual drafts. In standard scoring leagues, I would take him over just about every single WR at this point.
  6. 4th round? Would you consider Gurley if he fell into the 3rd round?
  7. I agree on all of those. I'd even expand the 8-12 group to include a few more guys like Aaron Jones etc.
  8. Chubb averaged over 20 touches per game while Kitchens was the OC. Monken is irrelevant for the most part since Kitchens will be calling plays.
  9. We do original draft cost for the first 3 years you keep they player. Then they go up $10 for the 4th year and stay at that price through year 6. Then for year 7 they go up $20 additional. It looks like this if you drafted a given player for $20. Year 1: $20 Year 2: $20 Year 3: $20 Year 4: $30 Year 5: $30 Year 6: $30 Year 7: $50 Etc. I'm not sure if I'd use that formula if we could only keep one player though.
  10. Elite RB on an up and coming team that looks like it is finally making the right moves in terms of personnel and coaching. It will be interesting who gets the HC position for the Browns as I'm sure it'll be an offensive minded coach to help develop Baker. Top 5 or so fantasy RB for 2019 with legitimate upside to lead the league in rushing. He'll probably be drafted as early as the late 1st round but shouldn't go later than the early to mid 2nd.
  11. I understand that football is a business and if you don't win (consistently) you'll lose your job, but Zimmer is truly a great coach that I don't think anyone should be surprised that he is on that list. Especially when consider what he has had to work with at the QB position.
  12. It's all relative. Hypothetically, if you own Gurley and in a snake draft you would probably have to keep him for a 1st round pick. Whereas you might have also had Nick Chubb on your team that you could potentially keep for a 10th round pick (his ADP was #112). While throwing Gurley back into a draft is difficult to do, the value is clearly in Chubb based on that scenario. Also not every Gurley owner made it to the championship this year. His 5.8 points in week 14 probably sunk more teams that you realize and on top of that he didn't even play in the championship so those that did make it may have fallen short. I would draft Gurley over every single player at this point but making blanket statements, especially in a keeper league setting, doesn't tell the whole story.
  13. From actual league winner to season killer. Looking forward to 2019 with Jones. Hopefully whoever the next HC is fully commits to him.
  14. Started: QB: Russell Wilson RB: Zeke RB Chubb RB: Jones WR: Tyreek WR: Keenan TE: Cook K: Badgley DEF: Chicago I'm going to be lucky if I break 50 points.
  15. And a 50% chance at a TD. Starting with confidence just tempering expectations.