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About shaman0610

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  1. Really hoping Conner goes this weekend so I don't have to worry about sitting one of my studs (Evans). I think Samuels has the higher floor between him and Mike Evans, and I need points up and down my lineup this week. I have enough high ceiling guys (CMC, Amari, Keenan, Kelce) that breaking double-digits in the other spots in my lineup should be enough.
  2. I can't believe I'm getting gun-shy this week, but: Drew Brees home/away splits have been ugly all season. Of his away games, he had a monster game in Atlanta and Cincinnati, and was otherwise uninspiring or downright dud in NYG, Bal, MIN, DAL, and TB. Since Ingram's return, his deep pass % has declined dramatically and they've returned to their run first / run heavy approach. If you don't have other options, I still think he's a fine option this week, but I think many who drafted Brees are sitting with a couple viable QB1s. Personally, I'm firing up Rivers in the semi-finals in both my leagues.
  3. 0.5 PPR league, semi-finals, and notably QB TD throws are 6 points. First, do I start: Drew Brees at Carolina? - it's playoffs, & I typically 'dance the ones who got me there.' though, he's been bad on the road (NYG, Bal, MIN, DAL, and TB games this year) & they seem to be heavy run-first now. Philip Rivers @ KC: not elite compared to Brees this year, but has been a reliable low-end QB1. And gets a potential shoot-out bonanza in KC. Rest of team: CMC is guaranteed a start, as well as Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, and Travis Kelce. I'll almost certainly be start Fournette as well at my RB2 slot. Options at flex: if James Conner gets healthy, he'll get the nod. Otherwise. . . Mike Evans @ Bal - he had a ridiculous start, but has been boom/bust in recent weeks, and now draws a really tough matchup in Baltimore. Pitt RB vs NE - I have Jaylen Samuels as my James Conner handcuff. Marlon Mack vs Dallas - need to see better efficiency. . . Kenyan Drake @ Min - f--- Frank Gore and his spectacular never-ending career. He amazes me, but is frustrating as a current Drake owner. WHIR
  4. if you are rightfully going to bring up recency bias, then you shouldn't ignore his first seasons in the league. second, I'm not projecting him forward based on weeks 12 and 14. He's had one real "dud" week since joining Dallas and it's not that far off compared to many other WR1s in terms of dud week frequency. Yes, he's going to swing more wildly than many of the other WRs, but he's getting a reliable number of targets in Dallas and expecting 6 receptions for 80 yards a week as his floor is a comfortable and conservative estimate moving forward, now that he's obviously gotten comfortable in this offense. How many other guys this point in the season that will slot in at flex that can floor ya at double digits and ceiling at almost 50 points? Mike Evans or DeSean Jackson (retro) seem like OK comparisons in terms of his season-like projections and his game-to-game swings.
  5. 1. tons of talent, just had a terrible surrounding cast before moving to Dallas. 2. He's scoring at rates that are high-level WR1 in the past 6 weeks. . . he's a must start ROS, especially with these juicey playoff matchups Dallas faces. 3. I disagree with the "low floor argument" since arriving at Dallas. In PPR formats, he's broken 10 points in 5 of his 6 games as a Cowboy, and his one real 'bust' was 2nd week with them when he went 3 for 36. Important to note that even the perennial WR Gods like Antonio Brown have games like that here and there (see: today). 4. these above stats are also factoring in his first games after arriving in a brand new offense. In the last three weeks, he's gone absolutely nuts for 26 receptions, 473 yards, and 5 TDs. While I don't project THESE stats to be sustainable, he's absolutely a guy who will give you WR1 numbers moving forward, and while I didn't think this would happen to THIS degree even after his move to Dallas, I'm now convinced. I'm all in on him next season.
  6. In a 0.5 PPR auction league, we can keep up to 3 players from our previous draft, at a cost of 1x, 2x, and 3x what we paid for them the prior year. Other rule is that we can only select to 'keep' a player up to three years. I won regular season and have a good shot for a playoff championship, so I'm playing to win this year, but I also have a nice set of options to keep next year. Here are their costs BEFORE the 1x, 2x, 3x multipliers: Christian McCaffery for $38 (would be 1st year keeping him) Michael Thomas for $10 (would be my 3rd and last year keeping him) James Conner for $1 (would be my 1st year keeping him) Marlon Mack for $10 (would be my 1st year keeping him) Currently shopping around to try to fix my TE position (f--- Trey Burton) and maybe upgrade at flex. Almost landed Kelce for Mack, but that trade died last minute (damn). Someone just offered me Julio Jones & Gronk (neither are keeper eligible for next year) for MIchael Thomas, which would make me a juggernaut these playoffs. Question is simply this: do people believe in Mack as a solid RB in the next years? With CMC occupying my 1x slot, Mack would cost me $20 next season, and if he went bonkers, $40 the next season, and would therefore max keep him two years. Thinking of countering with Amari Cooper & Mack for Julio & Gronk. . . my keeper options are just much easier when CMC (1x = $38), Thomas (2x = $20), and Conner (3x = $3).
  7. Wait, are you really begging for credit that Mack wasn't going to finish as the top RB in fantasy through ROS? Your take is garbage. Let's math, since you desperately need context: In Mack's prior two weeks, he went for 32 & 29 points in 0.5 PPR formats, putting up 126 yards / 1 TD with 2 receptions, 33 yards, 1 TD via air and 132 / 2 TD and 2 receptions, 17 yards via air. You quoted your statement after the first game (nevermind that you disappeared after the game happened again, but whatever) stating that it's a "good time to sell high. He's not this good" aka the above production is not sustainable. To extrapolate those two games over an entire 16 game season would suggest he's capable of 2,064 yards and 24 TDs on the ground, with 32 receptions, 400 yards, and 8 TDs via air, which would be a whopping 454.4 points over a full season. Gurley only got to 383 last season in that format, and is on track to pace RBs this year at 462 points!! given his current pace. I didn't see a single person on this thread arguing that Mack was this good. Multiple people saw him as an emerging workhorse 3-down RB who is on a high-octane offense with underrated line, and given the dearth of RB depth, that's an obvious recipe for potential top 10 RB status the rest of the way - and that's a value that I guarantee you most people would have been unable to get in return if they traded him anytime these last two weeks. He's a hold, unless the owner thinks his ceiling is RB2 or worse going forward. The current top 10 RB group is Gurley, Kamara, Conner, Barkley, Hunt, James White, Gordon, CMC, Exekiel, and Yeldon, and their total points range from 246.5 (Gurley) to around 200 (Kamara, Conner, Hunt), down to a whimpy 114.5 for Yeldon, followed by guys like AP, Lindsay, Cohen, Coleman, DRAKE, Johnson, Crowell). There's a precipitous drop-off at RB around #10, and those guys are averaging around 13 points per game. THAT'S ALL MACK NEEDS TO BREAK RB1 TERRITORY ROS = an average of 13 PPG. In four weeks, he's got 9.8, 31.9, 28.9, and 6.8, providing nearly 20 ppg average. But f--- it, let's say that these numbers are STILL too high, and that he's gonna trend down. He's a lock for double digit carries a week, and let's say 4 ypc over 15 carries per game average = 60 yards. Let's give him 50% chance to get a TD in any way, which I think is a bit low on him given the prolific offense he gobbles touches in. Let's give him 2 catches for 20 yards per game average. That's 12 points right there = borderline RB1. Find another RB with his kind of talent, in a quality offense, who is guaranteed to touch the base 15+ times a game (with ceiling of 25-30 touches), that should comfortably average at least 12 ppg, that you could have traded Mack for straight-up this last week.
  8. any reason why you prefer Coleman > Mack this week? Looking at most rankings sites, including my fav (FantasyPro), most rankers also have Coleman over Mack. Though, I find Mack's volume to be much more reassuring than any other factor. Trying to get a feel for what I'm missing. . . Is it the Jax defense? I'm more scared of their pass D, meaning I'd assume Indy would try to hammer the run game more.
  9. 0.5 PPR, do you flex: Marlon Mack vs Jax Tevin Coleman @ Cle
  10. LIke I said in my prior post that you quoted, it's not worth stashing extra TEs that you have no interest or ability in starting unless they are good enough that they are worth trading or you actually have reason to be starting them in the near future. And, TE1s definitely fall into that picture of "don't drop," like both of us said. I can totally see teams that are making playoff pushes, have two low-end TE1's on their roster and plan to play matchups with both. I have nothing against that at all. My post was originally a response to a person wanting to drop Trey Burton onto waivers, which I think we both agree is bananas.
  11. Forgot to add Olson to this. He’s above Burton ROS, just around/after the tier 1 dudes.
  12. This is ridiculous. Now is not the time of a fantasy season to stash two TEs, unless you have two elite TEs and can flex one, or are actively trying to trade your extra away. And it’s certainly not the time to toss a top 6 TE onto waivers during a year where TE is a wasteland. Burton is a start and forget EVERY WEEK unless you drafted Ertz, Kelce, or Gronk (but injured now!), or have either Kittle or Doyle to decide between. Jared Cook and Ebron are both coming back to earth and I’d rather have Burton weekly over guys like Rudolph, Njoku, Howard, Hooper, graham, and reed. So he’s a top 6 guy ROS who through 8 games has given owners 5 TDs, 4 (I’ll soft call and say 5 for this week’s 9.8 in 0.5 ppr) double digit outings and only 2 weeks where he’s really flopped. For context, over this same stretch, kittle, gronk, and Kelce have all also had 1-2 outings of <5 points. He is maintaining this consistency with limited receptions, given his talent and ease to create separation, and because he’s a primary path to the endzone through the air for trubisky. Top 6 ROS with upside if the game plan ever decides to push more volume through the air. Stop being gun shy, and if you have a legitimately better TE option, than trade one of them.
  13. Off the top of my head, would rather have AB, Thomas, Julio, thielen, Hopkins, Adams, OBJ, AJ Green, Evans, tyreek, Alston, juju, Stefan, Keenan, Sanders, woods. Kupp falls somewhere within the tail end of this grouping, so borderline wr1 to mid wr2, along with guys like Landry, Gordon, Boyd slightly behind ROS. I get that he had a great start, but I hedge a bit given his injury, given his high TD rate despite mid reception rate (he’s not an absolute target hog like most of the WR1s). What he is, is a stupidly reliable guy with high floor on a high octane offense. To me, tha extrapolates to solid WR2 with weekly WR1 upside. I would argue that RB2s like tevin and drake fit the same mold, RB2s with a demonstrated good floor and high ROS upside. Gotta additionally consider that RB is far more shallow than WR position as well; too many on this forum ignore relative value.