stopmakingsense

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  1. Ricky Rubio 2017-2018 Season Outlook

    I was messing around with Rubio's pass tracking stats, and I found it interesting to look at the frequency of who he passes it to most, and what that player is doing after they receive the pass. This year Rubio has passed it most frequently to Favors (19% of his passes), then Ingles (17%), and Mitchell (13%). All those add up to about 30 passes per game, and they result in only 7 field goal attempts per game by those players. Those were the only players who received over 10% of his passes, and a bunch are in the 6-8% range. For comparison, his pass tracking on the wolves looks wildly different. Last year 30.7% of his passes went to Wiggins and 27% went to Towns. That's a total of 38 passes per game to those two, resulting in attempted 18 shots, or potential assists for Rubio. To me this points to many of the common complaints surrounding Rubio about how the Jazz promote ball movement, but I was still a bit surprised by the actual numbers.
  2. Jaylen Brown 2017 - 2018 Season Outlook

    Since this comment he's been outside the top 200 and hitting only 50% of his FT's. Dropped from 100 to 165. Here's hoping he becomes Oladipo over the next month+ to bring him into the top 60.
  3. Lonzo Ball 2017-2018 Season Outlook

    Except you didn't even state facts. They're 4th. http://stats.nba.com/teams/traditional/?sort=REB&dir=-1
  4. Lonzo Ball 2017-2018 Season Outlook

    The Lakers are 4th in the league in rebounds per game.
  5. Giannis Antetokounmpo 2017-2018 Season Outlook

    He's a career 36% shooter from deep, that's good enough that it forces someone to guard you out there. Basically the same as percentage as Towns. He doesn't get high volume due to his teammates being better offensively and being under 20 mpg, but that doesn't mean defenses should give him the Tony Allen treatment.
  6. Lonzo Ball 2017-2018 Season Outlook

    Assuming it's the league settings in your sig of 9 cat plus FGM and FTM, I just typed those settings into BBM and he's ranked 147 per game. If you only punt FG% he jumps to 98.
  7. Jaylen Brown 2017 - 2018 Season Outlook

    Yeah it's hard to say since it comes down to roster construction and assists are very top heavy, while everyone shoots 3's. I have him on a punt FT% team where I'm kinda weak in assists, so the low assists are noticeable. I just don't like giving players a free pass in categories they're bad in just because of the position they play. That logic kinda assumes that you have an even number of guards, forwards, centers, an equal number of starting spots available for each, and they in turn balance each others weaknesses. In reality with punt builds, multi position eligibility, and guys producing "out of position" stats, that's obviously not the case. Someone with dual position eligibility could start in about half of your available starting spots (assuming a couple utility spots), and that really gives so much freedom in creating your team's strengths/weaknesses to the point that I just look at a players line relative to everyone, not what's typical for the position. Sorry about the tangent ha. Agreed from a real life perspective, he seems to be legit. Here's hoping he makes the fantasy leap as well to make me less of a cynic.
  8. Jaylen Brown 2017 - 2018 Season Outlook

    I do. I choose to count any negative stat as being negative because that's how math works. It might be easier to cover those weaknesses since he's a SG/SF, but it doesn't make them any less real. Yeah if you boost all of his numbers he's a very solid mid round player. I don't disagree on his upside, and the out of position rebounding can be very helpful if it's an area of need. My only point is if you consider 1.8 3's to be a positive, then you also have to include his 1.1 AST as a negative. What's unreasonable about that? Maybe you have players who cover his deficiencies, maybe you punt, or maybe his weaknesses hurt you, who knows. These are roster construction issues that are totally separate from Jaylen Brown's production.
  9. Jaylen Brown 2017 - 2018 Season Outlook

    He said 5+ for 1-. If you're counting 15 points, 1.8 3's, 1.2 steals, and 1.5 turnovers as positives when they are all pretty average, you have to count the others as negatives.
  10. Jaylen Brown 2017 - 2018 Season Outlook

    He's also negative in AST, FG%, and blocks.
  11. Jaylen Brown 2017 - 2018 Season Outlook

    Yeah if you take out 5 misses on a sample size of only 66, things are going to look a lot better. Doesn't really change anything. Also while there is a general correlation between 3pt shooting and FT shooting, there are plenty of examples of this not being the case. Waiters, JR Smith, Aaron Gordon, Thad Young, Lebron, Draymond. Some to lesser extents than others of course. Also worth noting that my number was for this season, he could definitely improve into the 70's long term.
  12. Jaylen Brown 2017 - 2018 Season Outlook

    Are you really saying csb in relation to his actual ranking on the year? It's fine to be optimistic on his FT%, but you at least have to see that you're being, well, optimistic. Not everyone will agree with you on that since all the data we have on his career point to him being a sub 70% FT shooter. He does absolutely pass the eye test though, and while I'm hoping for the FT improvement, I expect something in the 67-68% range.
  13. Lonzo Ball 2017-2018 Season Outlook

    Haha this thread has devolved to the point that even his passing ability is being questioned. I thought that was the one thing we all agreed he was pretty good at?
  14. Lonzo Ball 2017-2018 Season Outlook

    Just a heads up, I think you accidentally used his projections instead of rankings. I happened to be looking at it and he's 131 on my rankings. But I agree with your main point, you can absolutely cover his FG% with other guys or ignore it entirely. Sorry for the CSB, but on the only team I roster him I'm first in FG%.