s-kayos

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s-kayos last won the day on October 22 2014

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About s-kayos

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  • Birthday 03/11/1990

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  1. I'll second that. J-Rich is not in a great spot, Favors is young enough where he should still have a lot left in the tank. In keeper I don't like Whiteside at all. I'm going Favors for this season and the next few.
  2. And if he is in the 1.7 -1.8 range he should be still good for 5th round value rather than the 3rd round value he was at I'm guessing, but that's why I'm really hoping he falls a bit later because drafting guys at their actual value is fine but I don't see the upside for him to be any better than last season, I think most signs point to slight regression in possibly minutes, possibly blocks, possibly age-related decline, regressions to the mean, etc. I think it's underrated how hard it is to block more than 2 shots in multiple seasons. That said again, I think he's a great mid-round pick. He's a 3-pt shooting Myles Turner you can get about 20 or more picks later, that's amazing.
  3. I don't think those bigs left in the draft necessarily mean an "overload" honestly. Bryant and Capela are a clear tier above those left imo. Given you already have Gobert/Drummond, I would probably only consider Capela between him and Bryant as he would be great for that build. I do think Rozier is a solid pick as well there since you have Fox and could definitely use another PG because after Rozier the only good PGs often don't give you assists other than Rubio or Teague or Lonzo, but not sure if they're available in your draft. I'm very biased against Rozier so I'm probably the wrong guy to ask any Rozier-related question, so I'll just say to me it comes down to Capela and Rozier. If you think Whiteside, BroLo, or Dedmon would fall to you on your next pick I might go Rozier (and try and trade him before he starts sucking).
  4. Horford. You say Marc Gasol doesn't have competition, and that's not exactly true - Serge Ibaka's solid play limits Marc's upside. He's not a "competition" per se but that does mean they don't need 30 minutes of Marc a night, whereas with Embiid's questionable health sometimes they will need Horford to step up. I'm going with Horford given all that, plus I think Horford has a bit more left in the tank.
  5. No, I would keep Collins. 1) You're fine on PGs. Harden, Rubio, Booker, and Derozan (and some out of position assists with Sabonis) all have you covered. 2) Collins's rebounds are great for you. He's your second best rebounder and you're losing out on that by giving him up. Marc is nowhere near the rebounder he used to be, and he won't have a big role anymore at his advanced age. 3) You'll also heavily weaken your FG% by taking Rozier on, and you're decent there but if Harden or Booker have bad nights you could lose the cat, I'd rather not go full punt unless you have to and I don't think your %s can take that. 4) Just strictly from a value standpoint in a vacuum, there's a saying that the guy with the best player in the trade usually wins. That player is Collins. Plus, Collins is a T25-35 guy. Marc and Rozier are mid-rounders at best, they don't have the upside that Collins does. For all of those reasons above, don't do it.
  6. 5th is not a reach but there are some factors I'm considering making me hope he falls to the 6th tbh. His game should continue to age reasonably well, but I'm worried that at age 31 they tone his minutes down from the 29 they were last season to 27ish and things all take a little dip. Yes Brogdon is gone but I'm thinking the ones taking on more usage will be Middleton, Giannis, and whoever they plug in Brogdon's place (prolly Wes), not BroLo, so I don't see any reason to boost him for that. His 2.2 blocks per game last season also weren't just a recent high, they were a career high - higher than his blocks even when he was playing 35-36 minutes per night. The only other time he was above 1.8 blocks was 7 years ago in his prime. The most recent seasons were 1.3, 1.7, and 1.7, so tbh I think last season was a bit of an outlier there. The discrepancy worries me. Tbh their depth lowkey kinda sucks for a team expected to be top 2 in the East, so he does have that going for him and maybe he doesn't dip, but in the 5th guys like Adebayo, JJJ, and Capela are sometimes dropping and at their ADPs Thomas Bryant and J-Val are there. But if those guys are all gone I'm looking at BroLo, but still a little wary of dropoffs.
  7. More than fair explanation. I think cherry picking is a tiny bit strong when I'm using recent data and not picking old stuff from more than 4 seasons ago, but I really think Booker's fantasy outlook got slightly worse (Ayton is an offensive dynamo who will improve and demand more touches, Rubio will take the ball out of his hands way more than Tyler Johnson did), and Butler's fantasy outlook got volumes better on Miami now that he's back to being a 1st option. I also don't see Booker putting up Harden stats at 23 years old - even when Harden was 23 - 24 years old he was only scoring 25-26ppg.. so to be honest I don't see Book going for 30ppg next season, but if he does I'll be happy to say I'm wrong (I really will be happy since I own him in dynasty). The steals and rebounding though I see as staying the same even if he does increase other stuff, he's just not that guy. His physical profile and defensive instincts have never been there in that way, even in college his per-40 steals were 0.8. And if that's the case it's gonna be tough for him to be elite in 9-cat. Even guys like Klay and Beal, who I never thought would be T15, only got there because of not only the 3s, scoring, and efficiency, but also the stocks. Klay has been a good defender for a long time and Beal has always had some steals. Booker doesn't look like he'll get there anytime soon. Now with that said, you also mentioned that Book's FT volume and that there aren't too many who can threaten his attempts per night - but one of those guys is actually Jimmy Butler, with Booker's career high 7.1 per game last year still less than Butler's as recently as in Minny, where he averaged 7.2 per game and 8.9 per game the season before in CHI. What I REALLY think is cherry picking is not only ignoring his TOs, but also how in the SG tier discussion they ignored Booker's deficiencies in defensive stats, saying you could make it up with later low-end players to support their argument that he's a 2nd round player higher than Butler. If we're just choosing to ignore 2 stats right off the bat when talking about a player we can boost a bunch of mid-rounders to 2nd round value if we chose to. You could argue the same in favor of Jimmy for his comparatively low 3s given how easy it is to draft or stream 3pters (Joe Harris, Danny Green, Tarean Prince, etc.) I dunno. I don't disagree with you because we still end on the same point, but I just had to say more on the topic. I get their opinions but I don't feel that they're well supported by the data.
  8. I think he must mean Beal? Either a weird autocorrect or maybe if someone had never read his name and only heard it spoken maybe you could hear Bill?
  9. I can see the concerns about minutes limiting his upside, but I just don't see the big downsides to getting this guy in the 4th or 5th. I think it's the projected 2+ assists that will really buoy his value and vault him ahead of the pack. I tried finding some kinda similar-ish guys who got more than 2 assists and I think Bam's season has a decent floor. Al Horford 5 years ago averaged 15 pts 7 reb 3.2 ast 0.9 stl and 1.3 blks and finished 17th overall per BBM. Gorgui Dieng averaged 10 pts 7-8 reb ~2 ast, ~1.1 stls and ~1.2+ blocks for 3 straight seasons, and he was ranked 49, 52, & 53 those seasons. I think Bam will match that and be better. Greg Monroe had a 15 pt 9 reb 2.3 ast season with 0.9 blk 0.8 stl, finished 43rd overall. Jokic in his rookie season averaged 10 pts 7 reb 2.4 ast 1 stl 0.6 blk and finished 65th. Centers who are efficient and can pass the ball have pretty high floors I think. Assuming you tweak some numbers in scoring, rebounding, and assuming Bam's assists are real, I think his floor is pretty darn promising even if he never averages over 14 pts and 8 rebounds, as long as he's getting those good assists. But his potential to do more than that and improvoe as a 22-year old is what seals the deal for me. Take quotes with a grain of salt, but it's always fun to listen to what teammates and coaches have to say. Quote from Dragic on Bam: Quote from DJones: Now I'm not saying Bam is gonna start hitting 3s, but the team obviously expects him to take on a much bigger role with bigger offensive responsibilities. I'm in on him.
  10. And that's all fair, I get they put Booker over Butler because they ignore turnovers, but even given that I don't see how Booker is a whole tier above Butler. Assists: They're pretty much on par with each other in assists - they both should be around 5 or more. Booker was at 4.7 the season before last, with Rubio coming he should have more than that but still less than last season FG%: Historically Jimmy kills Booker here. Jimmy's 46%, 47%, 45% versus Booker's 47%, 43%, 42% Scoring: Booker will be better but I don't think he'll be too much better - 25-26ppg again wouldn't be surprising but with Rubio setting Ayton up Booker should have slightly less usage than last season. Jimmy was 22ppg on a team with Towns and 24ppg as the main guy in CHI - he should be at around 24 ppg again. Steals: Obviously Jimmy and there's no discussion. Blocks: See above. At 0.6 last year Jimmy doesn't even need a whole 2 games to get you one. Booker at 0.2 last year you need 5 games to get one. FT%: They're both ~85% and above, but Booker is an anchor here based on attempts, so he's ahead here. 3s: Obviously Booker and there's no discussion. Rebounding: Jimmy is historically a whole rebound and some change better, so he wins here. Even Booker's career high is no match for any of Jimmy's recent seasons. So Booker does what he does well, but I don't see how 3s and slightly better scoring gets him a whole tier above Jimmy when Butler kills him in steals, blocks, rebounding, and is comparable in most other areas. Even punting TOs using BBM Booker finishes at 20 and Jimmy at 22. I'm okay with Booker but just not seeing why he's getting that much more love honestly
  11. Which is funny because today I was listening to Josh Lloyd's podcast today on Shooting Guard tiers, and they were talking about concerns related to those late 1st and 2nd round guards. Maybe I'm higher on Butler because a lot of those guys around there will probably miss games (Kyrie too, PG, etc) While I'm at it, this is how Josh Lloyd and his BBM co-host ranked the shooting guard tiers: Tier 1: James Harden Tier 2: Jrue Holiday, Bradley Beal, Devin Booker Tier 3: Luka Doncic, Jimmy Butler I find the Booker ranking over Butler a little weird. They talk about Jimmy Butler's health being a concern and it being a reason to bump him down despite his numbers, yet Devin Booker played 64, 54, & 78 games the past 3 seasons, Jimmy played 65, 59, & 76. Pretty much on par with each other, Jimmy actually played a few more games than Booker. Devin Booker's finishes the past 3 seasons per BBM have been 42nd, 48th, & 127th. Jimmy Butler's past 3 seasons per BBM were 15th, 11th, & 10th. I dunno, maybe I'm missing something but it doesn't feel like Booker deserves to be in the same tier as Beal and a whole tier above Jimmy B.
  12. He was being sarcastic. Otto Porter isn't on the Wiz either. If I remember it's a reference to the Bradley Beal thread argument where a guy was posting like 8 paragraphs of Wizards rants but admitted he didn't know Otto was traded and thought the Wiz were in the West
  13. He really helped eliminate the USA with Gobert & Frankie Smokes, I'm impressed with his showing. Now about his fantasy, not amazing upside but if I need 3s he's one of my favorite last-2-rounds targets. His stocks aren't crazy, but they're not Arron Afflalo/Harrison Barnes bad though. Last season he had about 1 steal a game and the season before he had 1.1 combined stocks. That's still on par with plenty of other 3pt target guys, Khris Middleton last season, Devin Booker, Tobias, Gary Harris, Buddy Hield, Brogdon, Gallo, Bojan, etc. The list can go on. You don't draft those guys for stocks really, but just pointing out he's not allergic to steals. Plus, the past 3 seasons he's been upping his assists. 3 assists twice and 3.6 this past season, which is more than some PGs even got - SGA, Brogdon, McCollum, Batum, & Hayward all averaged less. People will probably pick Kevin Huerter late for "upside," but honestly I wouldn't be surprised if Huerter's best #s are on par with Fournier's last season.
  14. In redraft, for me it's: Zach C, Alex Len, Garland, Winslow, THJr.