Flyman75

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Everything posted by Flyman75

  1. Merrifield was very good in 2017, and then followed up with a 2018 that made believers out of the remaining doubters. And now he enters 2019 with eligibility at 1B, 2B, and OF in Yahoo leagues. Things really picked up for Whit in the second half. Over his final 80 games (July-Aug-Sept), he hit .317-56-8-36-29. The runs were nice because he only scored 32 in his first 78 games, so it was good to see the lineup behind him finally start driving him in. The up-tick in RBI was also appreciated. One of the things that was debated prior to last season was Merrifield's power, after hitting 19 in 2017. I still don't think he's a 20HR guy, though I wouldn't be surprised to see him get there. It will take much more consistency, however. Of his 12 HR in 2018...3 came in a 5-game stretch in April, and 5 came in August. As of now, I expect him to reach the 15-18 HR mark, but I could see him getting to 20 or better if he can stay away from those LONG streaks without a HR. His fly ball% dropped significantly, as did his HR/FB% and ISO. I guess we'll see if those numbers bounce back closer to 2017 levels. His calling card is SBs, and I feel like the 45 was a surprise for almost everyone. I don't expect him to replicate that number in 2019 simply because 16 of those came in September when he decided he wanted the SB title and was racing Mondesi. I guess he could get there if he has the same level of motivation, but I feel pretty sure the Royals are going to want him to be more selective until they are eliminated from contention...so mid-way through April, I guess? Lol. Merrifield's BB% almost doubled (4.6 to 8.6), and his Hard Hit% increased 6.3% (taking all 6.3 from Med Hit%). His LD% jumped up a good bit, and his GB% dropped. Personally, I think a good season from Mondesi will help Merrifield in a couple of ways. Thoughts on the Whitster for 2019?
  2. Sony Michel 2018 Outlook

    Yeah, that was some smart guy. I'll wait with baited breath to see his projection for Sony in week 12.
  3. I figured since I started Merrifield's outlook thread, I may as well start his partner-in-crime's thread, too. Both were very effective thieves in 2018, especially late in the season. Undoubtedly, Mondesi is going to be one of the most hotly debated players this offseason. It's easy to get excited when looking at a half-season worth of stats, but I do believe it's fool's gold. I feel like Mondesi is going to have a solid and productive season, but there isn't a chance he doubles last year's stats (my Mr. Obvious moment). There are some things to love about Mondesi. He has some power, enough to reach 20-25 to go along with blazing speed. It is a very tantalizing combination, but I believe we have to expect regression. There will also be regression in his BA. I just don't see him hitting .276 again...not with that bb/k rate. The good news is that he's young (23 entering 2019), so hopefully he'll be able to show some progression. He doesn't walk much, but he did show quite a bit of improvement in his K% in 2018. Super small samples, but his K% in his shorts stints with KC in 2016 and 2017 were 32.2 and 36.7, respectively. This past season, it was 26.5. That's a pretty significant drop and was more in line with his career MiLB numbers, outside of his first taste of AAA ball in 2016. Even with the very low walk rate, I'll be more optimistic about his 2019 if he can maintain, or even improve, on that K%. The risk with Mondesi is that his ceiling is pretty high, but his floor is Buxton low. But it's guys like this that make fantasy baseball maddeningly enjoyable, lol. He's going to be kept in a lot of keeper leagues, especially those with salaries or round designations. He'll be a 25th rd keeper for me (30 rounds), so for owners like me (and auction owners who got him dirt cheap), he is well worth the risk. At this moment, I will say I'm looking for something along the lines of a .240-.250 BA, 15-18 HR and 45-50 SB. But I fully understand he could also be back in AAA by June (though I believe he's up for good now).
  4. Nick Chubb 2018 Outlook

    I admittedly will pop a chub if Arians becomes Chubbs' new HC. I think it would be a solid move for the Brownies.
  5. Chubb or Michele ROS? WHIR

    Although I agree with your point about Chubb and Michel, I think it's a little disingenuous to say Chubb seems to get under 10 points every other week. He hasn't been starting long enough to really say that. In 1/2 PPR, he's scored 14.0, 8.5, 15.5 in his three weeks starting. If in three weeks, he's developed a pattern of scoring under 10pts every other week, then sure, that's a valid statement. But at this juncture, I think it's slightly misleading. Overall, if Michel continues to get the touches he was getting, then he's the obvious pick to me. Better offense, better team, more TD opps. But if they drop him back to ~15 touches, I'd have to lean Chubb because his volume isn't going anywhere.
  6. Adalberto Mondesi 2019 Outlook

    I hope you guys are right about Mondesi's floor. Anytime I see that great a disparity between K ratio and BB ratio, it causes me concern. It's those ratios, alone, that makes his floor drop significantly in my mind. If that K rate increases and his walks do not, that's not good. If he can't keep up a .335 BABIP (higher than his norm), then there are few walks to get him on base to try to help him work through a slump. If he hits a slump and starts pressing, his plate discipline won't keep putting him on base, and pressing can and will cause his Ks to increase. That said, I am really excited about owning Mondesi in a keeper (especially at the low keeper value I have him at), but I'm also cautious when determining my expectations for him in 2019. He's still too young with too little success behind him on the MLB level to not have serious concerns about him. But if he can get his walk rate to 6-7% next year and keep his Ks in the 25% range...wow. Significantly improved plate discipline with the hard contact he makes and his speed...he would likely reach beast mode. Maybe Whit can give him some tips on increasing your walk rate from one year to the next, LOL. And frankly, I would drool over those Steamer600 numbers. Though I believe if he gets 600 ABs and hits .251, he's going to get a lot more than 42 SBs...I'd put him more in the 50-55 range at that point.
  7. Whit Merrifield 2019 Outlook

    Things kicked into another gear for Merrifield in the second half. As long as he stays healthy, I think Merrifield is a good bet for 100+ runs in 2019. There's no disagreeing with the fact that Altuve Ks less and plays for a better team. I guess the bigger question, if we're going to compare the two, is whether or not Altuve gives us a healthy 150 games in 2019.
  8. Patrick Mahomes II 2018 Outlook

    Not to derail the thread, but I'll respectfully disagree with that last point. Both teams are excellent, and I think picking between the two is a toss-up. Ranking the Saints ahead of the Chiefs is not "a joke." Ranking Green Bay ahead of KC...now that would be a joke. I respect that you disagree with NO ahead of KC, but I don't think it's ridiculous. You inferred that there is disrespect for KC...sorry, but I don't see that. I see A TON of respect for the Chiefs and Mahomes, and even a defense that is about to get some key players healthy. As for Mahomes...I agree with you about this weekend. I feel like he's about to rip Arizona a new one. And as an owner in a keeper league (he'd be a 10th rd keeper)...I'm very excited about Mahomes :).
  9. Dez Bryant 2018 Outlook

    Good thing regarding that struggle...he's fresh for the final 8 games and playoffs, so maybe that helps (maybe?). But more importantly, if he can just get 1/2 a step, he now has a QB that can fit the ball in that window...something Dak cannot do.
  10. New Orleans Saints 2018 Outlook

    Love the move of signing Bryant for the Saints. They needed that legit No2 WR, and I believe Dez can be that. I know some think this is a wasted move, including one guy on NFLN who insinuated that the Saints are signing him to sell more tickets and doesn't make NOLA a better team and doesn't fill a need. Ridiculous take because Dez fills a very big need, imho. It's great that Brees can spread the ball to MT, Kamara, 3Q, Ingram, Watson...but the Saints NEED a legit No2 WR, and Dez fills that void.
  11. Tre'Quan Smith 2018 Outlook

    I think this is the key here. Imho, this is great for Quan's future. It takes some pressure off of him to perform and to step up to be that No2 WR the Saints are badly in need of. Dez comes in and relieves some of that and allows 3Q to just be a No3 WR that will be a deep threat who can take the top off of defenses but also still be very integral to the gameplan each week. I think it allows for him to grow as a young WR without the stress of trying be the No2 guy, especially as the Saints chase the top NFC seed and (presumably) enter into the playoffs. For this year, it probably does eat into his production, or potential production. But the future is very bright for Smith, and I think this signing only helps his longterm prospects.
  12. Dez Bryant 2018 Outlook

    WR2 for the Saints has value, but this is a much bigger signing in real life than in fantasy.
  13. Dez Bryant 2018 Outlook

    https://twitter.com/JeffDuncan_/status/1060204851970428928 The tweet isn't embedding for some reason, but Jeff Duncan is about as reliable as it comes with Saints info.
  14. Dez Bryant 2018 Outlook

    I believe Dez would be a better real-life signing for the Saints than he would be a fantasy signing. I can't take credit for the following, but I read it on a Saints forum...seems to make a good deal of sense to me: "If Dez still has game, how do you cover him. MT takes the top CB and maybe safety over the top help, Kamara moves into possible receiver position and takes a top CB (because no LB can cover him...few safeties can), Smith requires a fast CB, There's only one CB left to cover Bryant and Thomas requires the defenses biggest most physical CB. A small CB on a healthy Dez would be a joke with Brees throwing him lasers. Heck, Brees may just throw jump balls to Dez covered by a small CB. We all know Dez, when healthy, can and does high point and fight for every pass." This tweet seems to indicate that the Saints and Dez might come to an agreement in the near future. We'll see, but I'd like the deal for the Saints if it comes to fruition. Nothing definite, but looking positive. ETA: Rumor on a big Saints forum is that he has signed.
  15. Dez Bryant 2018 Outlook

    And how long did AP remain with the Saints after that? If Dez doesn't get in line, he won't be in NOLA long.
  16. Dez Bryant 2018 Outlook

    The Saints don't have a legit No2 WR. Can Bryant be that? I don't know, but I guess it's worth a look-see. I don't trust Smith as our No2 going into the playoffs. Ginn just a go-route threat, and Meredith has been invisible. As a Saints fan, I have no problem bringing him in to see what he can provide. As far as the lockerroom, the Saints have a much stronger one than Dallas had at any point during Bryant's career there. He will stfu and play ball, or he'll be cut as quickly has he was signed. Team leaders like Brees and Watson won't put up with it.
  17. Got buried quick...just bumping to see if there are any thoughts.
  18. 12-team 1/2 PPR league...keep 3...keeper value is the round they were drafted in +1 (so a 5th rd pick becomes a 4th rd keeper...the next year he becomes a 3rd rd keeper...and so forth). Start QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, WRT, WRT, K, DEF...7 Bench. Our trade deadline is approaching on Saturday. I am out of it in this league and am only looking to 2019. I have accumulated three rookie RBs and Mahomes. Michel...4th rd keeper Chubb...6th rd keeper Guice...7th rd keeper Mahomes...10th rd keeper Rookie RBs with promise always go earlier than in this league in most normal drafts. First question...should I just hang onto all four just in case one is injured during the offseason/TC/preseason? Or should I try trading one for a mid-round draft pick (likely the best I'd get). Second question...is Mahomes too good to not keep in 2019, no matter which two RBs I keep? QBs are drastically devalued in our league. They have almost no trade value, and they aren't drafted until later (unless it's a big name), normally. Should I be leaning hard towards keeping Mahomes and two of my RBs? Third question...if I should trade a RB and do it this week, which of the three would you try to trade off first? Just as an aside...because of a trade this past offseason, I'm going to have two of the top 3 picks overall next year. I'm also going to have a 2nd rd pick (via trade) that will likely be either the 13th or 14th pick overall. Plus I'll have my 3rd rd pick, which will be the 25th, 26th, or 27th pick overall. So I'll have four of the top 25-27 picks in the draft, which is making me lean towards Mahomes as a keeper. Can't keep 1st rd picks, so I'll have Gurley, Zeke, Bell, DJ, Brown, Julio, Green, Nook all available to me. Thoughts?
  19. Sony Michel 2018 Outlook

    I'm leaning towards agreeing with you. It doesn't help that Burkhead's contract is through 2020, though there is an out before the 2020 season. His owners in keeper leagues will have to just wait and see what happens in the offseason.
  20. Leonard Fournette 2018 Outlook

    No. He'll tweak the muscle in his pinky finger this week. And I'm a big Fournette fan.
  21. Patrick Mahomes II 2018 Outlook

    In my half-PPR, Mahomes is ahead of #2 by 49.64...Gurley is ahead of #2 by 48.30.
  22. Patrick Mahomes II 2018 Outlook

    Todd Gurley says hi. 🙂