Flyman75

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Everything posted by Flyman75

  1. Rex Burkhead 2018 Outlook

    It's not like BB has never gone with a primary back.
  2. I'll start Peraza's thread for the second year in a row, lol. What are we thinking on this kid this year. It's hard to remember that he's still only 23 (turns 24 at the end of April). He gave us a lot of promise after his 2016 season but then fell flat last year and disappointed a number of folks...me included. Do you guys expect a bounce-back season from him, or just more of his 2017 season? I don't believe he's as good as his 2016 season nor as bad as his 2017 season. At his age, I like to think we'll see some growth from him, and he's dual-eligible at 2B and SS. I'm thinking a BA in the .270s with a low OBP (doesn't K a lot, but doesn't walk a lot either), a handful of HRs (5-8) and 30-35 SBs. He's not going to help in RBI or R, and he's not going to be someone I'd want to start at 2B or SS in a 12-teamer...but I could see him being used as a MI. Possibly a bench bat taken later in the draft. His ADP on FantasyPros is 233, which puts in him the 20th round...an average of 25 ADP at 2B. Seems like potential value at that ADP. Thoughts on young Peraza?
  3. Aaron Judge 2018 Outlook

    Agreed. Gardner shouldn’t be playing ahead of the trio of Judge, McCutchen, and Hicks. It’s funny to see Judge hitting second. Lol. Probably the biggest 2-hole hitter in league history. Haha!
  4. Sony Michel 2018 Outlook

    I'm starting Michel this week as a flex play. I don't think he's going to get 20 carries, but I do think he'll get 12-15 carries and 2-4 targets. I could see 75-100 total yards and a TD this week. That said, this is NE. I wouldn't be surprised to see Michel get 3 touches while Burkhead goes for 20-120-2/5-40-1. Lol.
  5. Peyton Barber 2018 Outlook

    I'll have to back off on the statement about the Steelers' run defense. RBs have run for 30-100 and 19-78 against them for a combined 49-178. Tyrod's 8-77 and Watkins 1-31 are the reason their rushing stats look so bad.
  6. Peyton Barber 2018 Outlook

    Maybe you missed the part about his OL sucking at run-blocking. He did well in the first half against the Saints, but in the second half the Saints seemed to be in the backfield as often as he was. And there wasn't much room against the Eagles front either. Him not turning his touches into anything is not on him. It's on his OL. And he's not catching passes because he's needed in pass pro. So Quiz wouldn't see any more targets if he were the every-down back, which he never will be. You can't run on Pittsburgh? They're giving up 152 rushing yards per game, at 4.8 ypc. And you're kidding yourself if you think Rodgers or Jones would "easily average double the PPG Barber has." LOL. Jones. Is. Terrible. Quiz is not a three-down back. Sorry, I'm just not giving up on a RB who is getting the lion's share of touches. I'd rather sit him on my bench that let him start to click on someone else's roster. Who is on your waiver wire that is a better bet than Barber?
  7. Peyton Barber 2018 Outlook

    I don't see how you drop him unless they decide to go with RoJo, which they aren't doing anytime soon. So even if he goes 20-60 this week, I don't understand why you wouldn't hold onto a guy and just sit him on the bench. I don't know about your league, but in my league, all the upside plays and lotto picks are rostered. So I'll be hanging onto Barber for a long while.
  8. Peyton Barber 2018 Outlook

    I agree with everything you wrote here, but the TB-NOLA game wasn't a traditional shootout...at least not in the back-and-forth fashion. Tampa was up 41-24 in this game after the 3rdQ and up 48-24 in the 4thQ. Then the Saints got a couple of stops and score two late TDs. But yeah, I agree with what you're saying here.
  9. Cole Beasley 2018 Outlook

    We all want to see him become to Dak what Edelman has been to Brady...but I just don't see it. He'll have some nice games, but I think they'll come inconsistently.
  10. Phillip Dorsett 2018 Outlook

    He very well might, but I want to see that he's not the same knucklehead that he's been since the end of the 2013 season. Guys are acting like he's been this great WR for the last 5 years and is a lock to continue. The evidence of his career suggests that he's far more likely to screw up than become the version of Josh Gordon we saw five years ago. I mean, from 2014-2018, this guy has been limited to 11 games out of a potential 66 games. People are anointing him already...let's actually see him prove that he will actually learn a playbook and make the life changes he needs to make to stay on the field. Until he proves he can do those two things, I see little reason to be overly excited about Gordon...or concerned about him if I'm a Dorsett/Edelman owner. Now...if Gordon commits himself to learning the playbook and keeps himself clean and commits to the Patriot way, then he can be an absolute beast in this offense. He's only 27 years old and is immensely talented. But if he can't conquer his mental issues, his commitment issues, his drug issues...then he'll be just another in a long line of extraordinarily physically-talented players in the NFL who burned out and weren't able to consistently capitalize on their talent. So if I were a Dorsett owner, I would definitely not be concerned right now. I'd start looking at the possibility that Gordon turns his life around and making plans for that scenario...but I wouldn't be fretting. Besides, if you're a Dorsett owner fretting over Gordon signing, then you probably have bigger problems this year (bad drafting, injuries, etc).
  11. Corey Davis 2018 Outlook

    I guess maybe guys are talking about waiving CD so they can get one team to blow their FAAB wad? Or used that No1 waiver spot to get that guy out of the way? Otherwise, I don't know why you'd drop this guy unless you're in a 6-team league. Lol.
  12. Peyton Barber 2018 Outlook

    Jones wouldn't do any better behind that line.
  13. Phillip Dorsett 2018 Outlook

    Gordon is a moron. Being intelligent doesn't mean he makes smart decisions. He wouldn't learn the Browns' playbook, so I'm not sure how he's going to commit to learning the Pats' playbook in enough time to replace Dorsett. As far as talent goes...this isn't the 2013 Josh Gordon. I'm not sure why people still expect that guy to show up. Years of drug use and chemically abusing your body combined with the rust that accumulates with 10 games in four seasons (plus his one game this year), doesn't just melt away overnight. Frankly, I don't expect Gordon to end the season as a Patriot. Bill and Tom aren't going to put up with the terrible route-running he showed in the first game this year. They aren't going to put up with his laziness and acts of stupidity. They aren't going to put up with his lack of desire to learn the playbook. If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit it. But he's going to have to have a complete life change in order to find success in NE, and I'm not convinced he can or will do it. Sure, maybe just maybe he realizes that this is his final chance. But he's been given many chances by the Browns and crapped on every one of them. And yes, these are the Patriots...but the Patriot way is far more demanding than the Brown way every thought about being. I also don't think a 32-year old Edelman who hasn't played since the 2016 season is going to come in and be the same player he used to be...or that he'll stay healthy. Yes, he will command targets and isn't going to devolve into a bum overnight. I just don't think he'll stay healthy or be the same player. And who knows...maybe Edelman underneath will open things up for Dorsett down the field. If you own Dorsett, I believe he's a hold. And I believe he's going to have value. I will admit my mistake if I'm wrong on this. And I'm quite sure a lot of guys are going to quote me, lambasting me. This is just my personal opinion.
  14. Carlos Hyde 2018 Outlook

    In my 1/2 PPR Yahoo league, he's the 20th ranked RB, which makes him an RB2 in a 12-team league...and he's played against two good run defenses.
  15. Okay, so I'm WAY out in front in my roto league, and the only thing really keeping me interested (aside from trying to set a new high in our league for total points) is looking at my potential keepers for 2019. 12-team league, traditional 5x5, can keep players up to two years after drafting them. Eight keepers, 30-round draft. Keepers are tagged with the rounds they are drafted in. If they are /free agent/waiver adds, they start counting in round 23. So theoretically, someone can keep 8 guys they picked up off the wire and keep them in Rds 23-30. Can only keep one player in each of the first four rounds (one 1st rd player, one 2nd rd player, etc). My reasonable options: 1. JDM (one yr left) 2. Sale 3. Khrush (one yr left), Cain 4. Benintendi, Merrifield, Paxton 5. Odor 10. Nola (one yr left) 20. Ohtani (batter) 21. Renfroe FA. Mondesi FA. Aguilar FA. Olson (one yr left) FA. Franmil FA. GMarquez JDM and Sale would seem like easy keeps, but I'm not so sure. I'm estimating that 8-9 guys are going to have a 1st rd keeper. And then there are some guys getting tossed back because they have run out of keeper eligibility or because a team acquired multiple first rd keepers through trades. Since I'll have 12th and 13th overall picks, I could end up having the 4th-5th picks if 8 1st rd guys are kept. Here are some names... Three of: Arenado, Machado, Stanton, Goldy (all are on the same team). JDM and Sale if I throw both back. JoRam, Bregman, TTurner, Marte. Blackmon, Klubor, Bryant, Votto, Rizzo. I could toss JDM and Sale back, opening up my first two picks to get two of those guys. Or am I overthinking this? With all that in mind...which of these 8 would you keep. And for all those who say Benintendi over Merrifield...I'm not so sure about that. Beni is more popular, but Merrifield might be the better keeper. That would also toss Beni into that 1-2 rd mix.
  16. Sanchez had a terrible and forgettable 2017, laced with blisters and a torn ligament in a finger. The last I read, however, he's been throwing pain free since January and is ready to go for ST. So are we thinking he's a comeback candidate in 2018? Maybe a guy who can put up an ERA around 3.50-3.75 and a WHIP in the 1.20-1.25 range? Considering his train wreck last year, he could come at a nice discount price.
  17. Rougned Odor 2018 Outlook

    I really don't get where you're coming from. Who do you think is? A .204 hitter? Nevermind the fact that the 2017 BA is obviously the outlier in his career. His 2018 pace, if extended to his 2016-17 AB totals of 605 and 607 (as I mentioned in the post just above yours), would easily top his personal best in Runs, equal or better his career best in RBI, equal his career best in SB, and produce 25 HR. He's also setting career highs in OBP and his walk rate. It just sounds like you're trying to be funny with really no basis in fact.
  18. Sony Michel 2018 Outlook

    I gotta be honest, I was encouraged by his final numbers against Jax. Gaining 34 yards on 10 carries against that front seven isn't bad at all.
  19. Welington Castillo 2018 Outlook

    Dude has been terrible since coming back...5-for-32 with a run and nothing else. Bad enough he's been cut by his owners in both of my keeper leagues.
  20. Shohei Ohtani 2018 Outlook

    Hopefully it'll hold up better next year when he is a DH only and not pitching.
  21. Phillip Dorsett 2018 Outlook

    I think he's a hold after the next two weeks, too. He caught five balls against the Jax secondary on seven targets. That's pretty impressive imo.
  22. Rougned Odor 2018 Outlook

    Yeah, for a stretch there he was looking like a great keeper for 2019, and he still might be if he can stay healthy next season. If you project out his 2018 numbers to his 605-607 ABs from the last two seasons, you get .259-103-25-89-15. The biggest difference this year from the rest of his career, however, is his willingness to take a walk. He drew 19 free passes in 2016 in 150 games...32 in 2017 in 162 games...and 39 so far this year in 116 games. His OBP is looking to be a career high this year, as well. Where he might take a hit in 2019 is his SB total. He has just been awful this year with 11 steals in 23 attempts. They might put the breaks on him next year, although he was a combined 29-for-42 in 2016-17 (after going 10-for-24 in 2014-15). So he's cooled this year, but I believe he's still a solid keeper for next year. It's looking more like 2017's BA was the outlier in his career and should be able to fall in that .259-.271 range that the rest of his career has wound up in. Maybe another 28-30 HR and a dozen SBs. Craziest thing...he's only going to be 25 next year. So we may actually see some growth from him next year.
  23. 2018 Celebration Thread- Victory is Mine!

    Been dominating a roto league for most of the season. I took over first place in late May or early June and have never looked back. As of now, I have a 20.5 lead over second place (would easily be the largest margin of victory in our league's 8-year history), and I'm trying to set the league record for highest point total. I'm sitting one off the record right now, but I know 1.5 points that I'm guaranteed to get in W and Saves once the current 3rd place team runs out of innings...which he will soon. I'm leading four categories, tied for the lead in two others, am 3rd in three others, and am 4th in the final cat. This is by far my best roto season ever. This will be my second title in a row in this league after finishing second in 2016, and I should have a nice keeper list to give myself a great chance at gunning for a three-peat.
  24. Waiver Wire - Streaming Options

    Any good streamers for Monday's games?
  25. So what are we making of Snell in 2018. He was having a rough go of it over the first half of last year. Then it looked like things were beginning to slowly turn around for him in July. He walked 5 or more three times through July 18 (11 starts)...walked 3 or more nine times in the same stretch. After that, however, he walked more than 3 one time (got bombed on Sept 26)...he walked 3 or more just three times over his 13 starts after July 18. He walked no batters or 1 batter six times. The result was an August-Oct run that saw him put up a 3.10 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 61 IP...walking 19 and striking out 60. He induced a higher percentage of ground balls in Aug/Sept-Oct than the other four months. His strike percentage was substantially higher in July-Aug-Sept-Oct than it was in April-May-June. His FIP in August was 3.06 and in Sept-Oct was 3.32. Shandler says is FpK didn't support his lower walk rate in the second half...FpK was 54% in the first half and 54% in the second half. Is this a case of real growth that we saw in Snell, or is this a case of Fool's Gold luring fantasy owners in for 2018? Steamer has him projected with a 3.80 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 1.35 WHIP. They project his walk rate to stay roughly the same as it was in 2017.