Flyman75

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Everything posted by Flyman75

  1. It seems like the key to owning this guy is either A) weather his first two months, or B.) let someone else weather his first two months and make a move to trade for him toward the end of May. Last year he produced 1 HR and 17 RBI in April-May...then 20 HR and 54 RBI over the final four months, which would project to 30 HR and 81 RBI over a full season. In 2016, he produced 3 HR and 16 RBI in April-May...then 24 HR and 74 RBI over the final four months, which would project to 36 HR and 111 RBI over a full season. This guy could end up having a career year and put up nice numbers at 3B if he could ever figure out how to get going earlier in the season. It makes it really hard to know how to project him for this season. I don't think he's a .322 hitter again, but I could see him finishing somewhere around his career mark...in the .285-.295 range. That said, it wasn't like his BABIP was grossly out of line with the rest of his career. He put up a .326 BABIP last year, and his career is .316. So I don't think there will be a huge regression of his BA. The fact that he walked more than he K'd for the first time in his MLB career has to be encouraging...was his highest walk rate in his career combined with the lowest K rate of his career. I suspect the Ks will increase this year, but he never had a big K-rate anyway. He's 33, but there's more tread on the tires than some 33 yos because he played so little from 2012-14. I think a safe projection would be something like .290-80-25-85-5 if he plays 150 games. But if he can start actually hitting for power in April and May and maintain his reachable 2017 BABIP, I think we could see numbers as high as .300-90-30-100-5. That said, I think you pay for 130-150 games of "safe" and hope for 150+ games of the upside.
  2. So what are we making of Snell in 2018. He was having a rough go of it over the first half of last year. Then it looked like things were beginning to slowly turn around for him in July. He walked 5 or more three times through July 18 (11 starts)...walked 3 or more nine times in the same stretch. After that, however, he walked more than 3 one time (got bombed on Sept 26)...he walked 3 or more just three times over his 13 starts after July 18. He walked no batters or 1 batter six times. The result was an August-Oct run that saw him put up a 3.10 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 61 IP...walking 19 and striking out 60. He induced a higher percentage of ground balls in Aug/Sept-Oct than the other four months. His strike percentage was substantially higher in July-Aug-Sept-Oct than it was in April-May-June. His FIP in August was 3.06 and in Sept-Oct was 3.32. Shandler says is FpK didn't support his lower walk rate in the second half...FpK was 54% in the first half and 54% in the second half. Is this a case of real growth that we saw in Snell, or is this a case of Fool's Gold luring fantasy owners in for 2018? Steamer has him projected with a 3.80 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 1.35 WHIP. They project his walk rate to stay roughly the same as it was in 2017.
  3. I'll start Peraza's thread for the second year in a row, lol. What are we thinking on this kid this year. It's hard to remember that he's still only 23 (turns 24 at the end of April). He gave us a lot of promise after his 2016 season but then fell flat last year and disappointed a number of folks...me included. Do you guys expect a bounce-back season from him, or just more of his 2017 season? I don't believe he's as good as his 2016 season nor as bad as his 2017 season. At his age, I like to think we'll see some growth from him, and he's dual-eligible at 2B and SS. I'm thinking a BA in the .270s with a low OBP (doesn't K a lot, but doesn't walk a lot either), a handful of HRs (5-8) and 30-35 SBs. He's not going to help in RBI or R, and he's not going to be someone I'd want to start at 2B or SS in a 12-teamer...but I could see him being used as a MI. Possibly a bench bat taken later in the draft. His ADP on FantasyPros is 233, which puts in him the 20th round...an average of 25 ADP at 2B. Seems like potential value at that ADP. Thoughts on young Peraza?
  4. Eduardo Rodriguez 2018 Outlook

    Well that sucks. He was inconsistent but putting up some good numbers overall and seemed to potentially be hitting his stride with a powerful offense behind him. This is just craptastic.
  5. Kyle Gibson 2018 Outlook

    So what are the expectations for Gibson post ASB? Last year, he had a bad first half...solid second half. In 2016, he sucked equally both halves. In 2015, he was very good in the first half before sucking in the second half. Looks like he's a total crapshoot after the break. Is there any reason to believe he can keep up what he's doing thru the final 2.5 months?
  6. Jesus Aguilar 2018 Outlook

    Not including whatever he does today, over 2017-18, Aguilar is hitting .282-88-40-122-0 across 549 AB.
  7. Fantasy Strategy Thread

    It works both ways really. I went offense-heavy, as I always do, and am doing well so far. I picked up FA SPs like Stripling, Peralta, Pivetta, CSmith and super-late round SPs like EdRod, Heaney. I paired them up with Nola, and I used my excess offense to buy low on Paxton (right after his blowup on 4/21 @Texas) and Carrasco (when he hit the DL). That combined with FAs like Aguilar, Muncy, Nimmo, and JHicks, and I'm doing well to this point. But that's long been my strategy in 12-teamers, and it seems to work well for me. I go heavy on the offense, and then try to carefully piece together a pitching staff through good draft picks and timely FA pickups. People usually look at my staff and think little of it...but cumulatively, I usually end up with a staff that finishes in the top 3 in pitching points (5x5 roto). That said, I tried this strategy in a 14-team weekly keeper league with 28-man rosters (my first year in this league)...doesn't work nearly as well, lol. I'm going to have to come up with a different strategy for that league next year.
  8. Lourdes Gurriel 2018 Outlook

    I think he has decent speed, but he probably is going to be a 8-12 SB type of guy for the most part. I'm curiously watching him this year. I had him during his first call-up but dropped him when he went ice cold. He has 2B/SS/OF eligibility on Yahoo, so there should be some intrigue for 12+ teamers.
  9. Kyle Tucker 2018 Outlook

    Just depends on the league and the state of a team.
  10. Anthony Rizzo 2018 Outlook

    My assumption was that he made the move in his lineup, starting Gurriel and benching Rizzo. Dropping Rizzo for Gurriel wouldn't be a wise choice, imho.
  11. Anthony Rizzo 2018 Outlook

    Oh, I'm not waiting for him to bail me out. I have healthy lead, and I also have Aguilar at 1B and Olson at CI. But I'm not cutting the guy...that was crazy talk by Dalton. If his owners are frustrated and can't take him in their lineup anymore, they need to put him on the bench and not cut him loose. And as I mentioned earlier, his dreadful season is still pacing him for 110 or so RBI. The BA and power will come around, I believe.
  12. Buy Low/Sell High 2018

    Nope...wouldn't discuss it. Texted him on May 17. He's probably as big a Bregman fan as I am.
  13. Buy Low/Sell High 2018

    I tried in May. As a huge LSU fan and a Bregman fan, I asked his owner what it would take to get him. Dude wouldn't even discuss it. He's feeling pretty smart these days...and I have the sads. LOL.
  14. Anthony Rizzo 2018 Outlook

    Crazy? No. It's not crazy to hang onto him, and it's not because of his name...it's because of his previous production. Rizzo hasn't been easing down a cliff or been on a steady decline. He's been the model of consistency over the last three seasons, providing ample evidence over the course of his career that a bounce-back should be coming, assuming there isn't something physically wrong. And we're talking about a guy who is 28. What would be crazy is to drop him because he had a poor 80 games. Do you realize you're proposing that it's crazy to hang onto a guy who is on a 160-game pace to hit .236-72-24-118-6...a pace that is poor by his standards? Sorry, but I think it's crazy to do anything but hold tight and see how the ROS goes. Bench him if you must, but I wouldn't drop a guy who has produced a minimum of 94 runs, 31 HR, 101 RBI, .273 BA, .385 OBP over the last three seasons.
  15. July Closer Thread 2018

    Interesting concept, but the negative for me would be that I wouldn't want to be relegated to owning RPs from one team. I don't like that at all. Takes away strategy and putting together the right combo of Closers and RPs. I would be willing to try it in a redraft league that has no buy-in, but my initial reaction is...no thanks. For all the fussing and cussing and whining and complaining that occurs in the pursuit of saves, it is BY FAR the most exciting part of the game for me. I love chasing saves, and I have several leaguemates that do as well. It's a fun part of fantasy baseball, even if it's maddening at times. It's like a marriage in that respect...you love it and will always love it, but some days you don't like it. And does it continue past that? Will we move to Team Rotations...Team Outfields...Team Infields...Team Catchers? If you're going to go with Team Bullpens, then you may as well go the rest of the way, as well. The biggest problem I see in it is the question of what platform can fulfill this concept for a league. You'd be asking platforms to add this customization, and I don't believe Yahoo, CBS, nor ESPN would do it...and they are the big 3. Like I said...interesting. And it definitely seems unique to me. But I wouldn't really want to play in a league with this. That said...all you need are 10, 12, or 14 to buy into it, right? Form one league and see how it goes if you can find a platform that will customize to this.
  16. July Closer Thread 2018

    Part of me agrees with you. The other part of me gets a thrill out of hunting and chasing saves. I could be wrong because I've never played in a S+H league, but it would seem to take some of the strategy out of the game, too. In my daily 5x5 roto league, we have a 1600 IP limit. This makes stud MRs like Miller and Hader very important because they provide high k/9 with tiny ratios. So for me, I try to strategize how many closers to carry and how many of these MRs I want to carry (alongside my starters) to get to my 1600 innings without going drastically over. So for me, there's a game within the game in which I try to balance the number of "closers" I have with the number of stud MRs I have to best help my team. And frankly, I've gotten quite good at it over the 8 years of our league's existence. It would seem to take that game-within-a-game away if our league went to S+H and wouldn't make it as fun or challenging. I could be wrong...like I said, I've never played a S+H league, so maybe I'm off base.
  17. J.A. Happ 2018 Outlook

    Anyone watching the game? Outside of that BAWMB by Betts, it seems that Happ had a lot of bad luck in the 4th. Travis commits an error with one out, making all 5 runs unearned. Nunez follows that error by reaching on a 50ft infield single...then a Leon FC to SS...wildpitch...walk...and Betts launched one. If Travis makes a play, Happ gets out of the 4th unscathed, but bad things happen when you offer a free pass and then leave one over the plate to Mookie.
  18. 2018 MLB Trade Rumors and Deadline Thread

    That's what I like about Shandler's preseason book...his 1st-2nd halves are actual 1st-2nd halves. And I like going to the splits on Yahoo's player pages and looking at April-June vs July-Sept during the season and over the winter before Shandler's book comes out each spring.
  19. Freddy Peralta 2018 Outlook

    I agree completely. I was just trying to give the guy what he wanted and decided it wasn't worth the effort to do the ERAs, as well. He does need to bring his walks down. Free passes kill young pitchers. I was impressed by how he battled on the road against Cincy, but he does have a ways to go. I like the talent, and I hope he can harness it.
  20. Freddy Peralta 2018 Outlook

    Zack Greinke...ranked 21st by Yahoo...6 of 19 starts with a 5.00 ERA or higher. Rick Porcello...22nd...5/19 starts. Lance McCullers...23rd...3/19 starts. Marco Gonzalez...24th...8/19 starts. Tyler Skaggs...25th...3/16 starts. Zach Eflin...26th...3/12 starts. Stephen Strasburg...27th...4/13 starts. Eduardo Rodriguez...28th...6/18 starts. Clayton Kershaw...29th...2/12 starts. Junior Guerra...30th...4/17 starts. Kenta Maeda...31st...6/16 starts. Anibal Sanchez...32nd...2/10 starts. Freddy Peralta...33rd...3/7 starts.
  21. The Home Run Derby "Curse"

    No, I was the one quoting the baseball nerds who have become the butt of jokes. Lol. But I think their look into ISO has merit.
  22. The Home Run Derby "Curse"

    It was the 96 who participated vs the league as a whole (including the participants), from what I can gather. What I'm looking at is a decrease in power...which is the primary complaint about HRD participants. Right? We don't just use HR totals to quantify power. On this forum, ISO is used regularly to discuss a player's power, and the study I'm referring to was Fangraphs looking primarily at ISO. And you could be correct. It could be a matter of sample size. But it doesn't matter how many years you go back, the HRD is always going to be a much smaller sample size than the rest of the league. But as long as they're included with the rest of the league, I don't see the problem with it. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-home-run-derby-curse/
  23. The Home Run Derby "Curse"

    Fangraph's study showed a .026 drop in ISO post-ASB for HRD participants from 2000-11 while the remainder of the league's ISO stayed nearly identical post-ASB. So I don't believe it's as conclusive as you think. We can offer reasons for the drop in ISO (players coming back to earth, and so forth), but their data shows a fairly significant drop in isolated power while the rest of the league stayed the same.
  24. The Home Run Derby "Curse"

    Frankly, I don't care whether the "curse" is real or not. We all know that baseball is a highly mental game. If the participants don't believe in the curse...then the curse isn't real. If they do believe in the curse...then the first slump they get into post-ASB potentially comes with the notion that maybe it's the HRD's fault. It gets in their head, they press, things go off the rails a bit. Something that isn't real becomes a reality. The mind can make things seem real. Isn't that the basis of superstition to begin with? We know that Wade Boggs eating fried chicken before every game didn't make him a better hitter...but he did it anyway. We know that Turk Wendell chewing licorice on the mound and brushing his teeth between innings didn't make him pitch better...but he did it anyway. How many players refuse to step on the base lines when going in and out of the dugouts? Doesn't make them play worse if they step on it...but they believe it does. Sometimes it's all about the mind, and if the mind convinces you that wearing a gold thong (Jason Giambi) or adjusting your batting gloves the same way between every pitch (Nomar) or not letting your GM watch you pitch (Trevor Hoffman) or wearing the same lid all season (Wetteland, Lincecum, among many others) makes you better...well then you do that. If the mind makes it real...then doesn't the superstition become real to them, even if the rest of the world knows otherwise? Point being, baseball players are very superstitious. Anyone who was a baseball player or has been around many ball players know they are a superstitious lot. So in their superstition, if the HRD is a curse...well, then it's a curse. The mind, for many people, is far more powerful (and real) than reality itself. Some things can't be quantified by mathematics or scientific study.
  25. The Home Run Derby "Curse"

    He hit 20 in 2008 and 2010. He never really was a slugger anyway. He hit 20+ seven seasons in a row from 1999-2005, but his high was 31. And after his 2005 season (his HRD season), he was 31, so he wasn't a spring chicken anymore.