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About Whizzinator

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  1. Supposedly he changed his swing to get more loft. In the 1H his GB/FB ratio was 1.51...in 2H it's down to 0.92 (0.67 in August thus far). Maybe real, maybe not. But there are worse bets for the rest of the season.
  2. I hadn't realized, Anderson has been really good since June 1---19 ip, 2.75 ERA, 26/2 K/BB WHIP of 1
  3. Hill is out until September isn’t he?
  4. Indeed---FTJr has been worth Vlad's draft slot for sure.
  5. I cited a number of sources—and I suggest you read them.
  6. You're using a half-season sample of 25 players....I think larger studies just show a different result.
  7. That's an injury and replacement adjustment, though, and not in my mind underdrafting. What I mean by that is if you do a retro draft, you will end up picking pitchers higher becasue the contribution of a top, healthy pitcher is very high. But the chances you don't get performance and health from a pitcher are each higher than for a hitter. So when you draft at the beginning of a season (as of course we all do) you need to discount for those risks. That doesn't change what you say about Scherzer and Verlander's value to date---but the reason the market has, generally, discounted pitchers more heavily is that research shows that's an appropriate adjustment for the average pitcher. Where there is value in aces is when you believe someone is less likely than average to be hurt or underperform. I am always amused by how regularly expert drafts shift their focus on hitting vs pitching----there have been very few true changes in value over the last 15ish years....what comes to mind is really three: increase in batter home runs, decrease in steals, and decrease in IP for average starter. Other than that, it's all people learning/exploring different approaches not any difference in underlying value, replacement level, etc.
  8. CMart has said he wants to be a starter, which is a big consideration. I do wonder if the team believes he can stay healthy as a starter, and so I expect this one to depend on how this year goes---does he grow into the role and enjoy it (as some former starters have) or does he continue to want to start? if the latter, does the team agree he can stay healthy and effective with a starter's workload? I'm not at all sure about the latter. Where I have him at keeper prices I'm looking at him as a good pitcher in either role, but I'm also not all that confident anyone knows today what that role will be on opening day 2020
  9. I don't think you'll find a source that suggests it's easier to find hitting value than pitching value overall. The fact pitching is variable (which you say next) is precisely why this is true. Both year on year value player-level tracking (BBHQ and I believe FanGraphs have both studied this) and studies of value from free agents vs draft (Zola has definitely studied this) say that hitting is more consistent. This is what I observe in my own leagues as well. The folks who study it do not find that there are a dozen batter breakouts for every pitcher breakout. if you disagree, you can run your own study, who knows? If you are finding a lot more hitter breakouts avaiable in your league that could suggest a number of things (your co-owners value pitching more than the average league; they are less likely to draft prospect/young hitters and thus there are more on wire than average; etc.) but I don't think it changes the overall data. I would say the poster who noted that it is also easier to replace production of top starters (streaming, middle relievers, etc.) is a different reason that focusing on hitters generally is the better approach. But it all varies based on your leaguemates, as you note.
  10. I wouldn’t ask “can you win just by streaming” I’d ask “is it easier to find frontline pitchers or top hitters late” and consistently the pitchers are the answer on average. But, you can succeed either way of course. Todd Zola did some studies I believe in espn about % of value was drafted and it’s regularly higher for hitters then starters or closers. one thing I try to do is be honest with myself about what I’m good at and comfortable with. I hate scrounging steals and am fine streaming so I should draft with those things in mind. Other owners may hate to forage through pitching options and like matchup based daily hitters. Either can work.
  11. Agreed. I read some of the stuff that the OP alludes to from expert leagues and NFBC and all I thought was "that's a great example of trying too hard" The data is pretty clear that top pitchers are, year after year, riskier. There's a case for a Sale or Scherzer because fhe upside is so high in today's often-low-inning roto world, but the reason to do that has nothing to do with stability.
  12. Agree we don't really know where the Cards situation is. If I were rating probability of most saves ROS I'd personally score it: Hicks 50%, CMart 40%, others 10%. I have always thought CMart closing is likely part of the team's calculus in having him in the bullpen---and of course, I could be proven wrong.
  13. l have no idea what happened in the incident, and obviously if he acted poorly there I understand anyone considering that in whether you want him on your fantasy roster. Since I have no idea on that stuff, just on fantasy front, he's an interersting guy for a few reasons in my mind: 1. He has the profile of a multi-inning killer ratio high K reliever this year 2. There is reason to think he's the backup closer 3. He has been solid as a spot-starter and could return there this year 4. In keeper leagues, he has a lot of upside as a starter---arguably among the top young starters out there
  14. Agreed---I'd hold both, though I think Barnes' stock is rising and Brasier's slightly declining. Wouldn't make moves, though.
  15. 5 more shutout innings, two hits, an unearned run, 4 Ks. and no walks Clearly they are managing his innings pitched already, pulling him after 5. And clearly he's a stud.