colepenhagen

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Posts posted by colepenhagen


  1. growth isn't linear. he always had the talent and size and now got the opportunity to be "the" guy (don't think a healthy zion would affect him much.) this isn't a situation like you are spending a top 40-50 pick on someone like sga who hasn't shown he had "fantasy upside" you were  drafting a special player that was figuring things out around pick 100 with early rd upside if he did. to think a slight improvement of 8 % in ft was unlikely or doable doesn't make sense. its not like he cant/couldn't shoot. (did fix his shot from LAL)

     

    seemed like a very easy buy strictly on adp and talent. don't see how anyone thought favors or redick would be anything more than supporting players. (favors adp was trash and made no sense especially with inj history)

    • Like 1

  2. 20 minutes ago, PUNTSQUAD said:

    Just a general rant about the direction the league is shifting to. Arbitrary load management on top of guys missing entire weeks for ailments described as "illness" or "soreness", it's clear the NBPA is pushing for a reduction in regular season games.  Which the NBA would be insane to cave to, as if teams/players won't try to load manage down to 50 or 45 or 40 games, etc.  If the prevailing pro-LM (load management) thought is that missed RS games = advantage PS, then it doesn't matter how long the RS is there will still be a perceived advantage via LM come PS. So where to draw the line?

    why would the nba shorten season? seems like they would lose a lot of $$$ then like you said they still will rest players


  3. 44 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

    Adam's was never that good offensively. He had westbrook's impeccable ability to get him the ball with open layups to thank for that. Prime CP could get it done but current CP, schroder and shai can't get him the looks Westbrook alone could. Noel looks like the better player in every regard minus rebounds. Grab noel if you can. Adam's worth holding for sure though. 

    I don't think that entirely accurate. he improved and had decent touch around the rim with a floater and hook (left and right)

    he obviously isnt going to be creating his own shot off the dribble but if he got the ball in the low post he could finish. 


  4. his value isn't tied to usage. hes 12/10 on good % low t/o and decent stocks last 2 weeks. that doesn't seem crazy or unsustainable (even with a slight decrease). you might also see a spike in stocks if he is limited to lesser min.role as he can exert more energy and effort. (I did try packaging holmes and whitside 4 gobert today that was rejected. more to do with holmes being my 5th center than holmes value ROS)


  5. 8 minutes ago, davidhammer said:

    What do you guys expect from Dipo once he‘s back?

    Something like 17ppts 4ass 4rebs 2stls and 2 3pts on 42% from the field and 73% from the line?
    Do you think he‘ll improve next to Brogdon playing more Off-ball?

    that will only happen weeks/month+ after hes back. will be a headache to own early 


  6. I don't see how people can view 1 decision/dud in 1 week as luck. what about the rest of ur roster and their roster. what about all that luck where you are competitive for this week because ur def and kicker got you 25-30 pts vs ur opponents 7? or there stud 1st rder dropping a dud?

     

    I do like the idea of eliminating def and kicker as I see that as a lot less skilled based. 

     

    difference between 10 and 14 team has similar luck just differently. 10 team every team is usually very good and is coinflip everyweek. 14 team is still luck based when it comes to innj. inj in 14 teamer will really hurt. 12 teams is perfect. 12 team auction  with customize deeper roster, superflex, with custom auction dollars, ppr, bonus pts, 6 pt pass td, is the way to go. 


  7. 8 minutes ago, SkalChriston said:

     

    I know what he's going to do:

     

    18/11/1stl/4blk on 64% w/ no FT's.

     

    I might be last in my league, but just you wait, when #1 ranked, 1.04 value, Ayton returns, you'll all be sorry.

    I guess my post about aytons #1 rank went over ur head. obviously not even close to his value ROS as 64% and 4 blks isnt possible.

    im still a few games over 500 so im rolling with Ayton. 


  8. 3 minutes ago, TheINC said:

    I think it comes down to the type of league you're in to determine the percentage of luck vs skill.  In my league it's a re-draft and we pick names out of a hat for draft order - so the luck sets the stage to start and is pretty impactful.  Then of course waivers are set to start inverse of the draft order, so there's the luck coming into play again.  Lastly, I play in a non-ppr so trying to guess touchdowns is a fool's errand, so luck wins out again.  The skill comes in in doing your research, working the wire constantly, looking for trades, and playing the matchups.  In the end no one can really predict how some random football players will perform on any given day but you can hedge based on the stats.  The solution to my league specific issues are half ppr, auction draft, and FAAB instead of waivers, but that's asking for too much for my league...

    while I agree somewhat draft position doesn't matter. hitting on ur pick does. just look at all the people that got 1.1 and took barkely or zeke over cmc. is that bad luck or skill for the owners that took cmc 1.1?

    yea full ppr is what I mostly play and superflex and that has more skill/strategy involved . haven't played non ppr in many years and ur post sums up non ppr.


  9. 1 minute ago, JE7HorseGod said:

    The line itself is arbitrary, I'll admit, but it's a harbinger of what "skill" people are professing to have - namely, accurately predicting when players will perform well in advance of games.

    So yeah, I think it matters.

    well digs should be started ever week in 12 teamers with normal sized rosters so it really doesn't matter when you know hes going to have a good game. not like ur going to sit him. 

     

    a better example would be rojo in tb. but if ur starting  ro jo outside of a heavy bye week then you obviously didn't draft well or ur teams inj. (not to sound like a hole but I was still winning with adams, barkley, h henry, aj green ect on multiple teams) 

    I think fantasy football is less luck based than baseball or basketball. maybe that's my bias as football is my best fantasy sport and consistently make playoffs and win. 


  10. 5 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

    How about this.  Simple enough question, if you're a person who believes that you've got the right skills, shouldn't be a problem.

    Stefon Diggs plays four more games this year.

    Week 13 - @ Sea

    Week 14 - Det

    Week 15 - @ LAC

    Week 16 - GB

    Which of these four games, if any, does he finish in the top 12 WRs in .5 PPR?

    Just put it out there.  We have the data, the team surroundings, the opposing defense info, the weather should be fairly predictable.

    If you feel like luck isn't a factor than you should be able to make this prediction fairly accurately.

    one player or game doesn't matter. one big game from ur other 2 wr or rb or qb or te or def or kicker could pick up the slack.

    don't see how knowing when a player will hit and have a wr1 type week has anything to do with being good at fantasy football. people that are consistently winning aren't lucky they know how to draft, trade, and find value. people stashing hunter henry when he was dropped. people trading cooper kupp for nuk Hopkins when kupp was on fire. when everyone is taking qbs early in 2 qb league, qb friendly scoring. you wait and get allen and Stafford in the 7th and 8th rd.

    sure theres some luck involved but when ur rolling out stacked teams because you drafted good and make good trade that eliminates some of the luck


  11. 4 minutes ago, samer42 said:

    Unless you're referring to their respective sophomore years, how are you claiming that Wiggins and Ingram are not producing fantasy value? 

    ha this year they are. what about the last 3 years? length and talent doesn't mean fantasy value or stocks. ingram has 0.6 steals 0.6 blk career avg. (31 min)  that's absolute garbage for his length and talent.


  12. 14 minutes ago, nir said:

    jokic has been playing pretty bad so a few more attempts for murray isnt out of the question. So I do think thats the only way he can increase on his stats.

    den doesn't need murray to play like lillard even though if they needed it I think he could produce similar type line.

    there is a lot to like in this situation as his value looks safe and has that lillard type upside if they decide to have murray take on more. its a possibility. maybe he gets more usage late in the year when they are gearing up for playoffs and trying to condense that depth. we have seen that one twisted ankle can make  a player go from waiver trash to top 50 or better value. (Bog in Sac) 


  13. if you are going off numbers the only difference between lillard and jamal is the increase in fg attempts. first 3 years of  lillard and jamal basically identical. then an increase from 16 to 19 fg attempts is what chanced lillard from 20 pt scored to 25+. % didn't get any better nothing crazy outside usage. now can jamal been that lead dog that everyone is keying on is tbd.

    • Like 1

  14. 13 minutes ago, Ruut6 said:

    Some other fun ones since (apparently) these two players are comparable:

       -   Lamar’s career completion rate (63.3%) is higher than Young’s single season record (62.3%).

       -   It took Young 30 starts to reach as many TDs (25) that Jackson has in 17 starts.

       -   Young’s career INT% (3.9%) is more than double Lamar’s (1.8%).

     

    I’m not entirely sure how this is a comparison, but it’s an awful one.

    lump all running qbs and white skill players in together. they all the same


  15. 5 hours ago, Supersonics said:

    No offense but I don't see how this is a sell high. Hassan has been arguably more valuable than BamBam (Whiteside ranked 16 and BamBam 22 in my league with oreb and dd) and Otto Porter is simply made of tissue paper. I guess it's a sell high if you're banking on Otto eventually returning to peak form at some point. Hassan has turned me into a believer over the last handful of games. His usage is going up and there's literally no one on the roster to challenge him for minutes.

    last 7 games:

    30 mpg 17.1 ppg 12.1 rpg (4.6 oreb) 2.3 bpg 56% from the field and 76% from the line on 4.1 attempts per game

    Health and attitude are always concerns with Whiteside, but if the Blazers can start winning some games I think he'll keep putting up early round value.

     

    first off that minimal difference between 16 and 22.  its been 4 weeks and a trade should be done projecting what the stat lines will be ROS. then you factor in a very few% of people on here play in a league outside 8 or 9 cat. then there is the ft difference that will likely correct itself between bam and whiteside. the assists and steals (everything else will be similar at end of season) and inj history of whitside make this a steal for whoever unloaded him for bam. coming from whiteside owner


  16. patience will pay off. still hurts with these lines and im still not a fan of him or his stat line (got suckered in to best available at 6. almost fell for it twice thank God I took lbj 2nd time)

     

    still zero chance I would trade him for pg. kawhi, embid, or any other inj prone load management player.


  17. 41 minutes ago, FavreCo said:

    Give it time Vince Young. People gushed over him as well and if you recall, that team had a great Line and D as well until it didn't and he was then done. It's inevitable that he going to get drilled running the ball, spinning around only to meet a DL man who lays him out. Enjoy it while you can but its a replay of Vince Young.

    while the inj risk is obvious and real lamar has shown he is a much better passer than young and hes already shown hes more durable. haven't watched a lot of lamar but some people (cam) are stuborn or not very smart when running and take unnecessary punishment. not sure where lamar falls on that scale.

    also have seen Rodgers brady mahomes ect get inj. its football inj happen. people blow out their acls in the pocket.