EmbargoLifted

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  1. Amari Cooper 2018 Outlook

    i was down 30 pts with no other players left in my playoff pissed off/sure that i had lost .. i take a nap and wake up and now im up by 10 pts .. wow .. good lord!! ty!!
  2. Jose Altuve 2019 Outlook

    The market usually way overreacts to down years. Altuve is just 1 season removed from producing insane 5 category value. If he falls to the 2nd round i'm taking a flier.
  3. 2019 ADP

    Altuve from consensus #2 to #16th? Who is the 2019 version of Altuve? (Who is the next top 5 player who will be a second rounder next year?
  4. 2019 Steamer Projections

    Projection systems are great ways to evaluate a player's true talent level .. e.g. it's a great snapshot of a player last 3-4 years. Sorting by wRC+ can't believe juan soto and vladimir guerrero are already considered 2 of the best hitters in all of baseball and both are not even old enough to drink yet.
  5. Does the Draft really even matter anymore?

    Agreed ... the draft is just one tool in a pool of many to gain as many stats as possible ... and since it's literally building the foundation for your team/stats it's the biggest tool ... I think the real question is whether performance is still predictive after the first couple dozen players are gone ... and that would be an interesting discussion to have ... because there's seems to be more volatility in performance the last few years than ever before
  6. Does the Draft really even matter anymore?

    I joined 5 high stakes daily fantasy leagues this off season, where every single owner is probably a rotoworld/fangraphs/sabermetric junkie who stay attentive to the league from day 1 on. In those 5 leagues i've seen every strategy result in top placement (all 12 team mix roto standard leagues). In one league, the winner had the least amount of total transactions but he hit on almost every one of his draft picks and from the first month on he was up 10+ points up in the standings and never lost his lead. He drafted using standard strategy (e.g. more capital on hitters, and taking pitchers later). In this guys case the draft mattered a lot. In another league, the league winner had a core of 5-10 star players .. and then used the waiver wire/free agent pool everyday to pick up hot bats and play the match ups. This guy used a stars and scrubs strategy. In another league, the winner used his first 10 or so picks on all closers/starting pitchers and punted stolen bases and plugged his line up in with waiver wire hitters mostly and won. I guess my point here is that there are many different ways to skin a cat .. and there are people with a wide variety of skill-sets, strategy, and philosophies that if executed correctly can win. It's what makes fantasy baseball so great.
  7. Bryce Harper 2018 Outlook

    Agreed. Harper's age related production (specifically that stretch in 2015 where he went bondsian on the league at 23 yrs old indicates some really rare ability). He's been way up and way down and everything in between .. i think the volatility in his performance in his career so far does indicate there might be some untapped potential for sure.. this same volatility will lead to an interesting free agent negotiation/contract because you know some GM out there is dreaming on that 2015 season/upside as well.
  8. Bryce Harper 2018 Outlook

    Single seasons are highly susceptible to variance since the sample sizes are pretty small. Harper isn't as bad as some of the really bad down years he's had and he's not as good as that 2015 season either ... that's why you expand the sample size because it gives a clearer picture of who the player really is. Over his last 1800+ plate appearances it's pretty clear what kind of hitter he is .. (a ~130ish wRC+)
  9. Bryce Harper 2018 Outlook

    You are crazy. In Harper's last 1800 plate appearances (this is a huge sample size that we can use to gain a pretty reliable idea of what he's capable of) he's only produced a 130 wRC+ (only about 30% better than the average major leaguer and that number is neutralized for ballpark and league). This makes him a very good hitter, but a few tiers away from the very best in the game. And at age 25, with the age curving shifting more to the left, he's already at the apex of where players start to peak.
  10. Bryce Harper 2018 Outlook

    I hadn't looked too deeply into the stats in a few years so i think the earlier part of his career is throwing off my perception of him quite a bit. I was shocked to see that of all the players with 1500+ plate appearances over the last 3 years he ranks 18th in wRC+. Yikes. That's extremely average relative to the standard he set earlier in his career. Anyway thanks for pointing this out for me so i can stop going around thinking Harper was still producing .400+ OBPs with .300 ISOs ...
  11. Bryce Harper 2018 Outlook

    I also think that Harper still has a next level to his game .. maybe im just a sucker for the ESPN /homerun hype but i believe whoever he signs with .. if there's no player options in the deal .. Harper is going to provide a really nice return on investment during the later half of that contract (this same thinking on part of GMs might drive up his contract value way past the numbers i gave in the previous post).
  12. Bryce Harper 2018 Outlook

    Major league teams have a ton of money right now .. the sport is more profitable/popular than ever before and front offices have become more efficient with how they spend their money than ever before. Bryce Harper is the epitome of the type of player you write a blank check for ... he's in the prime of his career and is the best hitter in the league outside of mike trout. His track record leaves no doubt. I think it's safe to say Harper has settled into being a 4 win player and is a safe bet to maintain that level of productivity in the foreseeable future. The fair market value for 1 win is probably about $9M right now. So Harper is probably going to cost a team somewhere between $35-$40M per year. My guess is that he signs a contract for 5-7 years, $275-$325M
  13. 2019 First Rounders Discussion

    The NFBC is super high stakes and the best roto players in the world. I'm happy to say that their first round looks pretty similar to the one i posted in the OP. I think Acuna is a massive reach at #3 though. Kind of reminds me of how people were reaching for Correa in the 1st round back in 2016. Sample size is way too small on his performance at this point.
  14. 2019 First Rounders Discussion

    So far based on ESPN & FantasyPros it looks like im the only one seeing Baez as a first rounder .. curious to see what the projection systems say when those start to come out over the next few months
  15. Jose Altuve 2018 Outlook

    Full healthy season in 2019 with 155+ games I think 110 R, 15 HR, 75 RBI, 23 SB, .315 BA is reasonable projection