EmbargoLifted

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  1. Yes and most of them were attacking me for suggesting that people should sell him while his stock was hot.
  2. I love the HR binge lately, but what REALLY makes Altuve special is those 20+ steals. Any signs of his running game coming back to life?
  3. What a disappointing contract. This youth/production combination would have resulted in a $40-$50M per year, 5-7 year contract 10-15 years ago. With Harper's skills/youth he could have easily set himself up for TWO major free agent paydays at $300-$400M per contract. Now he has to settle for $330 total. Wow! The players need to strike and empower their union back to the levels it used to be in the late 20th century. The major sports in america are skyrocketing in revenue, value, popularity, etc. especially now that sports are the only TV people really watch live anymore. I cannot believe that player's pay is going in the opposite direction. The NBA is probably the only exception. They are actually paying their player's escalating salaries/contracts as their league gets more popular.
  4. This kind of post leads into all kinds of fantasy baseball lessons so i'll touch on a few that stand out: Just because a player's production comes all at once doesn't mean the production is any less telling of whether that player has a real skill improvement or not. This is also why it's very important during fantasy baseball season to be patient. I don't know how many times i've had established stars on my team who produce average/below average stats for 3-4 months and then get white hot and produce a half a season worth of stats in a couple of hot weeks. Production isn't linear; it comes in spurts/bursts. If a player's production was visualized on a line graph it would have huge peaks and valleys. Having a 7 HR week squeezed in between 2 months of batting .200 with 0 HR is just baseball. Also, there are a lot of questions like this that fall into the "answered with projection systems" category. Projection systems look at a player's statistical profile (over the last several years) way more comprehensively than any human can and then reveal a player's true talent level based purely on the data. There are a number of complex factors that go into it but this is the most simple way of explaining how they work. They are also good at looking deep into a player's profile and revealing whether they think the player's season was a breakout or if he's more or less likely to regress.
  5. I predicted 5-7 years, $275-$325M back in October. Wondering how close his contract comes to that. If it goes 7-10 years, It'll be somewhere between $325-$400M.
  6. hoping for a big 4th quarter .. need 5 pts to win big pot of cash/semi finals
  7. i was down 30 pts with no other players left in my playoff pissed off/sure that i had lost .. i take a nap and wake up and now im up by 10 pts .. wow .. good lord!! ty!!
  8. The market usually way overreacts to down years. Altuve is just 1 season removed from producing insane 5 category value. If he falls to the 2nd round i'm taking a flier.
  9. Altuve from consensus #2 to #16th? Who is the 2019 version of Altuve? (Who is the next top 5 player who will be a second rounder next year?
  10. Projection systems are great ways to evaluate a player's true talent level .. e.g. it's a great snapshot of a player last 3-4 years. Sorting by wRC+ can't believe juan soto and vladimir guerrero are already considered 2 of the best hitters in all of baseball and both are not even old enough to drink yet.
  11. Agreed ... the draft is just one tool in a pool of many to gain as many stats as possible ... and since it's literally building the foundation for your team/stats it's the biggest tool ... I think the real question is whether performance is still predictive after the first couple dozen players are gone ... and that would be an interesting discussion to have ... because there's seems to be more volatility in performance the last few years than ever before
  12. I joined 5 high stakes daily fantasy leagues this off season, where every single owner is probably a rotoworld/fangraphs/sabermetric junkie who stay attentive to the league from day 1 on. In those 5 leagues i've seen every strategy result in top placement (all 12 team mix roto standard leagues). In one league, the winner had the least amount of total transactions but he hit on almost every one of his draft picks and from the first month on he was up 10+ points up in the standings and never lost his lead. He drafted using standard strategy (e.g. more capital on hitters, and taking pitchers later). In this guys case the draft mattered a lot. In another league, the league winner had a core of 5-10 star players .. and then used the waiver wire/free agent pool everyday to pick up hot bats and play the match ups. This guy used a stars and scrubs strategy. In another league, the winner used his first 10 or so picks on all closers/starting pitchers and punted stolen bases and plugged his line up in with waiver wire hitters mostly and won. I guess my point here is that there are many different ways to skin a cat .. and there are people with a wide variety of skill-sets, strategy, and philosophies that if executed correctly can win. It's what makes fantasy baseball so great.
  13. Agreed. Harper's age related production (specifically that stretch in 2015 where he went bondsian on the league at 23 yrs old indicates some really rare ability). He's been way up and way down and everything in between .. i think the volatility in his performance in his career so far does indicate there might be some untapped potential for sure.. this same volatility will lead to an interesting free agent negotiation/contract because you know some GM out there is dreaming on that 2015 season/upside as well.
  14. Single seasons are highly susceptible to variance since the sample sizes are pretty small. Harper isn't as bad as some of the really bad down years he's had and he's not as good as that 2015 season either ... that's why you expand the sample size because it gives a clearer picture of who the player really is. Over his last 1800+ plate appearances it's pretty clear what kind of hitter he is .. (a ~130ish wRC+)
  15. You are crazy. In Harper's last 1800 plate appearances (this is a huge sample size that we can use to gain a pretty reliable idea of what he's capable of) he's only produced a 130 wRC+ (only about 30% better than the average major leaguer and that number is neutralized for ballpark and league). This makes him a very good hitter, but a few tiers away from the very best in the game. And at age 25, with the age curving shifting more to the left, he's already at the apex of where players start to peak.