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About Div1726

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  1. Time to throw a few out there: 1. Russell Wilson will outscore DeShaun Watson: Doesn’t feel too bold to me, but ADP suggests it is. Wilson dropped from QB1 to QB9ish and everyone is expecting regression downward due to a high TD rate, but I think he will regress upward with far more volume. Meanwhile, Watson was #5 and is 2nd or 3rd off the board. He was sacked 60+ times and had to travel on the ground by the end of the season. Hopkins didn’t drop a pass all year. They could start 1-5 with a horrific schedule and Vegas has them underdogs to break .500 after an 11 win season. I think the fantasy community has whiffed on the QB that is most likely to regress downward. I think Watson is the biggest risk at QB due to the penchant for taking sacks (Tunsil won’t fix this immediately) and he’s being taken high enough that it makes little sense to back him up. 2. Will Dissly is a top ten TE. In keeping with the prior prediction, I think here is a completely ignored guy who shouldn’t be ignored. As a rookie, he was the darling of the waiver wire last September after 2 3-5-1 (R-T-TD) games last year. He got hurt and everyone now has amnesia on him. A rookie TE getting that type of production in games 1 and 2 is highly rare. They are going to play a lot of 2 TE sets. He’s healthy and they cut Hollister today. Someone is going to get the volume and I think both Dissly and Vannett are going to step up this year, but let’s start with Dissly based on his start last season. 3. Adam Humphries will outscore Chris Godwin. Again, ADP says this is highly bold but it was entirely the case last season in the second half. For a player that completely whiffed in the fantasy playoffs last year, Godwin is getting an incredible amount of hype. I’m not buying it at all and see him as a massive bust. 4. Kerryon Johnson and James White will be outside the top 36 RB. Johnson in the 2nd round feels crazy to me. White benefitted a lot from Burkhead being out and now Michel is eating into his role. Both guys are DND for me.
  2. Never trust a big butt and a smile.
  3. Does anyone have any idea what Martin's fastball Clocks in at?
  4. Good list. Notably absent from the list is Mychel Givens. There was some high profile weird usage in week 1 of the season but since April 2 I don't see any evidence that indicates any type of timeshare whatsoever. His cementing the position has been masked effectively by Baltimore's constant persistent losing; to me it looks like he might have been a few days behind when the regular season opened and they happened to catch a bunch of close early games. He wouldn't go to the top of this list for me (because, Orioles....) but he'd be in the top 3 (with Parker and Barnes). Still under 30% ownership in CBS leagues. Reasonable to good numbers which cannot be said about anyone else in that bullpen.
  5. Disagree strongly. At 48, this feels like a huge victory for all of us salty old men! He'll have to get out of prison first of course.....
  6. They used Rodriguez, Porcello, Price & Sale out of the bullpen as well during the playoffs. Cora pretty much pegged an inning for the starter on 2/3 days rest throughout the playoffs. Eovaldi happened to catch the real tricky situation against the Dodgers in game 3 when he was the last man standing. I'd be surprised if the heavy usage didn't catch up to at least 2 of the above 5. Agree with others that Brasier is likely to get the nod, and would note that despite Kimbrel's struggles, Cora stuck with him as the closer throughout the playoffs (Sale finished the last game due to Kimbrel's usage more than anything). I'd be surprised if there was a committee; I think we just have to guess right here.
  7. I’m excited, but not remotely for week 1. I think their standard 5 skill set is Hogan/Dorsett/Gronk/White/Rex. Some Patterson. Brady should play most of the game in the shotgun as that is how they attack aggressive, talented D lines historically. White will be their feature RB. Take the flyer for sure; don’t bail after week one if he’s uninvolved.
  8. I have distaste for the group of receivers between 16-40 and I don’t want pretty much any of them unless they are coming at a discount. So I’m mostly drafting 2 WR in the first three rounds, loading up on RB between 4-8 with one deviation for TE, waiting on QB, and firing on the 40-65 WR group with as much volume as my bench will allow. I’m going to have a lot of Miller/Hyde/Carson/Barber.
  9. I was taking a close look at him today before these comments, and his tepid second half is what has me leaning toward DND. I think the expected plot summary for SEA is they will be bad, the D will be bad, and they'll be playing from behind a lot this season which should mean tons of targets for Baldwin because there is no one else. They were starting to trend that way as a team in the 2nd half last year, and he just wasn't getting enough volume for me to buy into that playing out in 2018. 26 catches on 47 targets in the last 8 games. I'm guessing this injury was part of the reason for that, but if it's still bothering him....I can't project any upside from what he's been churning out these past three seasons. He's a tough cookie who will gut it out, but that's not necessarily good for a guy you draft in an auto-start portion of a snake.
  10. High end: QB - DeShaun Watson. Pure insanity; I expect him to be a below average QB for 2018 and he’s an injury risk to boot. The idea that is ADP is higher than Drew Brees almost breaks my heart but these are the situations that we all must take advantage of. RB, WR - Sequon Barkley, Odell Beckham Jr. All the Giants are being overdrafted. Both of them are Eli-dependent. As much as the national press cajoled McAdoo for benching Manning last year, the reality is that the end is near and he hasn’t been good for a long time. I think the most likely primary Giant storyline for 2018 is the end of Eli, and that does not bode well for these two. In addition, OBJ is an injury risk and Barkley’s running style might be more suited for the college game. Two first rounders on this lousy team is outrageous to me. Medium End - Duke Johnson RB. Even in PPR, he’s going to lose 30 or so receptions to game scripts, Landry and Tyrod’s rushing ability and tendency. They trailed in every 4th quarter last year where he gathered a plurality of his receptions. Throw in Hyde (who can catch the ball out of the backfield) and I don’t see any value whatsoever for this guy in 2018. Give me Prosise and Montgomery as my PPR style backs well before Duke.
  11. I think the fantasy community has congealed around this idea but I think it’s one of the biggest misreads of the offseason. Jeremy Hill is going to lead this backfield in touches, TD’s and fantasy points. I can’t think of an RB that broke out in his 6th season like Burkhead is apparently supposed to. He’s never had a 100 touch season but he’s going to jump to 200 now and be an RB2? And this is going to happen over a guy like Hill who has 3 straight 225+ touch seasons when they were on the same team? And who is three years younger? Burkhead offers immense versatility which is valuable to this team especially; he’s still a long shot to get more than 120 touches and he’s a good TD regression candidate. Hill’s going to be on every one of my teams if he’s going to remain a double digit round guy through opening weekend.
  12. The difference here is that Hill’s ADP is 257; Gillislee was going in the 4th or 5th round. Hill had a promising game Thursday, not that production against 2’s and 3’s means a blessed thing. He made a special teams tackle on kick coverage. He also converted a slick third down reception where he had to gain about 6 yards after the catch to keep his TD drive going. He’s only 25. He’s the only RB on the roster who’s ever handled anything close to a full season NFL workload. He’s a proven commodity at the goal line. He should be drafted in all leagues, especially when the cost is negligible.
  13. I think the Pats will keep 6 running backs. Michel Burkhead Hill White Develin Boldin I think Gillislee won’t make it. This is a high number of rostered RB for them historically but I expect Burkhead is going to play more WR/hybrid than RB while Edelman is out. I dont expect Michel to get more than 30-35% of the snaps but will be monitoring training camp closely. Right now I think both he and Burkhead are overdrafts.
  14. I’m keeping a close eye on Jeremy Hill. He’s basically going undrafted. He has a fighting chance at the early down work in New England. Ignoring last year, he’s excellent at scoring TD’s with at least 9 for three straight seasons. He’s moving to maybe the best offense in the league. He’s still young (25). The team figures to run more this year. I’ll pass on Michel at his price. Burkhead is probably the most overdrafted RB on the board in my opinion as he has no track record whatsoever of handling a high touch count for as long as a month. He also might be playing as much in the slot as RB with New England’s receiver depth looking low. Hill’s floor is surely low and he might not even make the team (not a special teams guy) but I think his TD upside is pretty substantial.
  15. I think of the 3 RB, Johnson has the most risk because the team around him seems to be on the decline. Palmer's ability is fading and I think 2017 might be Fitz's last campaign. I also look at what happened to Gurley in that division and I think Johnson has the most risk of the 3. There is enough risk that I can't put him ahead of Brown who has simply dominated for 3 straight years. Yes, I still like Julio more than OBJ. They're neck and neck. Less petulance risk with Julio & a weaker division defensively. I wouldn't argue one over the other too vigorously.