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JCD

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  1. Luke Voit 2019 Outlook

    Yeah, great. Then I looked up Greg Bird's stats from 2015: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard?year=2015&abs=100&player_type=resp_batter_id 2015 Brls/PA 3. Grichuk 4. Gutierrez 6. Sano 7. Chris Davis 11. Greg Bird (Intentionally I left out the obvious star players) Bird was 11th. Not #1 but I'd say close to Voit. By the way only Gutierrez managed to hit over .240 the next season. Yeah he hit a cool .246. So Im not that ecstatic like this guy with his monster season prediction. Oh and don't forget to sort the list by Hard hit % Familiar name at the top.
  2. Luke Voit 2019 Outlook

    Is this Greg Bird 2017 all over again? Well Voit is not like a star player or something. He has no guaranteed job, he is a spare part. So when he slumps, than Bird will play more. And if Bird hits,, than it will be Bird's job to lose. There's no question about it. Or LeMahieu's. Or even Tulo could be healthy at the right time, and check in at 1st after Gregorius is back. That's how it works. Voit is ranked where he is for a good reason.
  3. Rafael Devers 2019 Outlook

    I agree, it is concerning, but you see him as a difficult case, and I see him as still every possibility is on the table equally case. Yes same conclusion, but there is a but. Ok, but it seemed to me it was the focal point of your agrument, and it carries a lot of weight. In my experience, when you are young and still learning, things can change from one day to another. Literally. One day you can't do the thing to save your life, and the next day it is there, and you wonder how on earth did you struggle with something this easy for so long. It wasn't personal, merely a general observation. And that makes you one of the brightest people around here. But even the brightest tend to lose their perspective from time to time, when focusing on something. And there is the very important thing that people do not realize. The approach of things. My approach is from the athlete side and I try to see if I can see something in statistics that can help me to understand better. It seems to me your approach is from the statistical side, and from there it is easier to lose prospective I beleive. Here is an example where statistical analyzis can lose sight of real life. (Quote is from Fangraphs) And the formula is: ISO = ((2B) + (2*3B) + (3*HR)) / AB which is just wrong from my athlete perspective, cause if you want to measure the player's ability to hit for power, you have to take into account that no batter can control the contact as much, that he can hit the ball to a predetermined spot, instead of a larger area. But there is where the difference between Doubles and Triples actually happens probably most of the times. And there is the element of the player's speed, that has nothing to do with Power, yet it can also effect the outcome. So from this point of view, there is no Power Difference between the Doubles and Triples, yet statistically it seems like people think there is. Life of smart people. Keep up the good work, I really enjoy reading your stuff.
  4. Rafael Devers 2019 Outlook

    First, you have to identify what is a fix and what is an improvement. Fix is when you already have something established and it needs to change. That is not really a case with 20 year old players. Let's say you have a problem hitting high fastballs. Is it a Fix or an Improvement if you learn to identify and lay off those? Is it a Fix or an Improvement if you adjust, cause you have the talent to be able to do that? Improvements are not easy, when you already close to the point where your talent level maximizes what you can do. It is rather difficult. And improvements can be difficult when your coaching does not know how to improve you, even if there would be plenty of room for improvement in you. Wiff rate vs 4SFS in 2017 http://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_profile.php?player=646240&time=year&minmax=ci&var=whiff&s_type=2&startDate=02/28/2017&endDate=10/30/2017&gFilt=&pFilt=FA Wiff rate vs 4SFS in 2018 http://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_profile.php?player=646240&time=year&minmax=ci&var=whiff&s_type=2&startDate=02/28/2018&endDate=10/30/2018&gFilt=&pFilt=FA Seems like he got worse. But it makes me think, if a player whiffed in an area 1/18 in 2017 then 10/33 the next season, or 7/14 in 2017 and 9/35 in 2018, is that data reliable enough to jump to conclusions. And I would think it is rather difficult to analyze hitting while sitting on a couch, looking at numbers, instead of swings. All in all, it seems to me he is a work in progress. In a redraft I would rather take someone more established as my starting 3b.
  5. Scooter Gennett 2019 Outlook

    Dumb you say? Well slumps happen all the time to everyone. Not counting on it is dumb. White hot streaks like this are rare. Counting on it is dumb. "Or do you just throw out hot streaks and leave the cold ones in?" I did replace that hot streak with good numbers, as I clearly stated. Totally disregarding that fact is dumb. "Where’s the statistical line that officially creates a hot streak and starts rendering a player’s impressive performances invalid?" Maybe where it becomes statistically improbable. Maybe you should ask those projection systems, that project 20 HRs that leave no room for an 8-9 HR month.
  6. Scooter Gennett 2019 Outlook

    Well, after removing the white hot streak and replacing it with merely good numbers the projection is a .285 - .290 hitter with 20 - 22 HRs and Runs+RBIs accordingly. Pretty much what most projections go with, so it seems like they eliminated that improbable to repeat streak too.
  7. Scooter Gennett 2019 Outlook

    That he did the same? You say somehow he will have one great month every season?
  8. Scooter Gennett 2019 Outlook

    His incredible 3 weeks in May and mediocre other 5 months could suggest that May was an outlier, and 2018 will not be repeated. He Started only 143 Games despite not losing any games due to injury. I would think it is wise to plan accordingly.
  9. Adalberto Mondesi 2019 Outlook

    https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-250-hitter-rankings-comparison/ And all hell breaks loose. :DDD
  10. Except that this is not a secret. And this is not some special rule by the Comish, that he has to explain. This is a Default Roto league setting. With no penalty. This is something you find out on your own. One way is to ask. If you don't, it is your fault. Everyone has a brain to use. Furthermore, since this is a Deafult league setting, the Comish does not have to know how it works, especially if he never played before, so "being transparent about all rules" is not a reasonable expectation. I played in a Private Roto league for over a decade and no one ever asked about this rule publicly, yet every one knew about it after the 1st season, when it should become appearent to everyone. On the other hand I'm a Comish of a H2H league since 2003 with plenty of special rules, and I remind the league every season, because any rule that differs from Default must be a subject of manadatory reminder, and an explanation by the Comish upon request. So if he does that and you don't know something, read the rules. You don't understand something, ask the Comish. Simple. And works.
  11. Gary Sanchez 2018 Outlook

    I wonder if he will get a basehit this week at all. Or he wants to enter the record books as the negative DiMaggio. 19 AB down 28 AB to go. But he is 3/8 lifetime vs Cobb, so this might be a little bumpy. Fingers crossed.
  12. Jose Quintana 2018 Outlook

    https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb "CHC @ CHW - Dry, but these winds are no joke, 20mph sustained with gusts around 30mph blowing out to center. Bump to bats."
  13. Anibal Sanchez 2018 Outlook

    MLB.com has the Braves going Toussaint Gausman Teheran Newcomb Foltynewicz so Anibal is losing the Sunday start, and gets Tuesday next week. But if the Braves stay with 6-man, he won't pitch again, which is bad news for owners. I would think though, with the off day on monday, Touki won't pitch next week, or it could be that struggling Newcomb gets skipped, or even bullpen bound, and Touki sticks. Plus keep it in mind that the Braves probably will win the NL East so next week they are setting up the playoffs rotation (probably vs. the Dodgers) as well. All in all, there are too many variables to even guess what's going to happen next week.