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About TrueToTheBlue

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  1. Do we feel confident Madson is the guy to start the season in Oakland? What's the risk they start the season with a bit of a closer by committee approach?
  2. I would pick Donaldson too but he might be gone by pick 10 in a lot of leagues
  3. Is this guy still worth taking around pick 10 in a redraft? The injury has me concerned
  4. bump
  5. Bump
  6. In a standard 5x5 12 team redraft, would you rather have picks: 51 and 146 or 82 and 87 thanks and whir
  7. In a redraft today where would you take him?
  8. Yes I'm interested. Please send me an invite at
  9. You're right, it's "moonshots I see on SportsCenter bias." Stanton wasn't getting drafted in the first round the last couple of years because of his average or because he chipped in a stolen base every once in a while. It was for the upside that he could hit close to 60 bombs. That upside remains, yet is being forgotten/overlooked in rankings like these is my point about recency bias. Good luck to you this year, we'll see if Stanton ends up being worth a top 45 pick or not
  10. Well it's all about risk/reward. I have him at about an early 3rd round grade right now. Could he have a lousy 2017 and get hurt again? Sure. At that point I would surely drop his ranking again heading into 2018 at least a couple more rounds. My point about recency bias is his upside is being overlooked somewhat because of his lousy year last year and his inability to stay healthy the year before. The fact is 2 seasons ago his 162 game pace was 59 bombs. The season before that he went .288/37/105 with a .395 OBP while missing significant time at the end of the season due to getting hit with a pitch in the face. I'm not ignoring his downside, if I was I would be taking him in the top 10 like where he was going last year or the top 5 where he was going the year before that. I'm obviously not advocating taking him there, I'm talking about picking him in the 25-30 range. I'm not saying ignore the negative evidence we have against Stanton and only look at the upside at all? Yes Stanton K's a lot and if you play in a league that penalizes for that he needs to be adjusted accordingly. If you draft him that's an area you'd like to see improvement, that said you're definitely not drafting Stanton for his average. If you look at the profile for a lot of the big power hitters you're going to see a lot of issues with K's. Nelly Cruz who you mentioned has had a similar BB/K ratio as Stanton the last few years. Same with J.D. Martinez. The other thing to consider is because he's missed significant time the last couple of years, how much more likely do you think Stanton is to get injured this year than the average player. That's a subjective question and an area I believe you and I disagree. I'm personally of the mindset that if he's 100% coming into the season he is not significantly more likely to get injured than the average player. As I understand it now Giancarlo should be all systems go to start the year, hence my early 3rd round ranking.
  11. Stanton is also far too low there. Offshore sports books have him as the clear favorite to lead the league in bombs at +750 with the next closest being Bryant and Chris Davis at +1400. His ranking is a case of recency bias, as Stanton has obviously disappointed the last two years due in large part to injury. Yes the K's and the K to BB ratios were a problem last year but Stanton has in previous seasons shown better plate discipline and the ability to hit for a .280+ average leading me to believe that the ability to adjust is there especially entering his age 27 season. Given 150 games played he should hit 40+, and still has the ceiling to hit 55+. With the best lineup around him he's ever had, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him back in the first round in 2018. I personally won't let him slip past the 3rd round
  12. Braun's SB numbers decreased from 24 in 2015 down to 16 last year after only 11 in 2014. At age 33, I wouldn't be surprised if the SB numbers continued to dip closer to 10. Braun is also given a ton of "maintenance" days. As someone who's owned both the last few years, I'd pick CarGo over him for the power/counting stat upside and because of Coors
  13. That's a fair point however Nelly will be 37 this year and at some point age/decline will become a factor for him. Stanton is just entering his prime and has shown top 5 overall player upside. I won't argue that Nelly is the safer choice and I wouldn't blame someone for drafting him, but I'd go Stanton for the talent/ceiling if he's 100% healthy to start the year
  14. I'm also a fan this year. Would you rather have him or Bautista? They're going at a similar adp
  15. 40 bombs and .240 is very valuable. In 5x5 standard H2H bombs are the most important category and average is the least due to its week to week volatility