Unbreakable

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  1. What are the scoring settings?
  2. What does the target share matter when wait for it...Dez averages 8.69 targets per game while Demaryius averages 10.13 over the past 4 years. I don't have the actual numbers on RZ targets, but I recall a year or two ago that Demaryius had quite a bit of those, he just couldn't punch it in. There is one thing Dez most certainly does better, and that is scoring TDs.
  3. I wouldn't say mediocrity, as 20 pts is above average, but yes. If the chances are equal that said QB can put up 30 or less than 10... I will take the safer option no doubt. Now, I can say if I am playing against a high powered FF team, I may try to shoot for the stars. As far as using a complimentary pairing, ideally yes, that would be great. I tried that 3 years ago with Luck and Stafford. I was seemingly always picking the wrong one. I am sure plenty of people have done that with success, it was just something I did not particularly enjoy.
  4. That is a very good question. You can be sure that some QBs are more predictable than others. I have not gone that far into detailing how predictable these guys are based on match ups. The most I do is see how they perform against division opponents, as they play one another twice a year. You can certainly go through the season and stream QBs based on matchups. It works for a lot of people because you can find the guys that have favorable matchups that are predicted to go in your favor.
  5. These rates are compiled over a 4 year span, that is just how far back I have decided to go. When I do these "consistency ratings" I do not factor in the future or any additions. I do that when I make my season predictions. This is specifically used to see how predictable and consistent a player is. Such as: Player A, in the past 3 years through the first 5 weeks of a season (15 games), has 8 Elite games, 4 above average, 2 average, and then 1 bad game. I see this as this player routinely comes out the gates hot. I totally agree that Rivers nearly always finishes as a QB1 and he will most likely finish higher than I have him ranked. He has averaged 22.6 pts in my scoring the last 4 years. That is great! What is not great is that he only scores above average 53% of the time. That is 8 games out of our season that he will be playable at our highest scoring position. The other 7 (or 8) he is easily replaceable or putting you at a very big disadvantage at his position. @boltup15 you do not need to apologize for being too blunt. It is useful and helpful to get a good dialogue going to bounce ideas off of members of this board. By these numbers it is purely analytics that are purely just a piece of the puzzle. We all have different ways of using similar information. This is how I use mine and how I use it towards my rankings. I see an Elite group of guys then I see a jumble of QBs that have very similar ppg averages that I have taken into account. From this list I see how their consistency matches up to one another and how I view their first month of games. This is the main reason why I am so high on Carson Palmer this year. May it work? We will find out in September. But I know that I came to this conclusion through my own research and gut feeling by looking at the numbers.
  6. When I make my rankings, this goes for all positions... I base my rankings on total pt output in combination with how stable they are. If a player has games of 30+ and then a game of less than 5... I don't value them the same as a player who steadily goes from 18-25. They may not have the same ceiling, but they also do not have the floor. Can and will these players finish higher than I have them? Absolutely. Does that mean they will be more valuable to my team? Not in how I draft my team. For instance... Brady has a stud rate of 63% bust of 22% in comparison to 70%//13% for Drew Brees and 72%//18% for Rodgers. When it becomes this close, it comes to personal preference. As for Rivers... he is a classic example of ceiling and floor. To go even further, he is a tale of two halves. He does very well in the beginning of the season, but takes a nosedive at the halfway point. Yes, he finishes high at the end of the year, but I am not too concerned about that if he is losing me games along the way. He has a stud rate of 53% with a bust rate of 24%. As for Derek Carr, his numbers are 55% stud and 33% bust. I have my own levels of what defines bust and stud, but I am much more comfortable taking the lesser bust rate while sacrificing some top end numbers that are not consistent. In only being able to start 1 QB as opposed to RB/WR, you want to make sure you are getting quality points from that position. Thus my reasoning for where I have players. Again, all personal preference within tiers and how you think players will preform.
  7. Yea last year was definitely not what are accustomed to with DT. That was also factored into his ADP, as well as it is this year. I see that passing game being more productive this year with the QBs having another year under their belts and McCoy coming back is a big boon to the outlook. I will start to look for him mid 3rd rd.
  8. I really like Landry as well. He is a very stable player who will not lose you weeks. At the same time, he isn't winning you games either as his ceiling is not very high. I would NOT take him over Demaryius Thomas, as they both provide a good floor, and I see the Broncos being a better offense this year.
  9. I think he worth at least a look. He is a pretty big unknown at this point as he has not exactly excelled yet in his career. I think he will be better in PPR type scoring, but even then I would be surprised to see him make many starting lineups. He is not an established TD scorer, has Goff throwing the ball. His career YPC is 12.3 and TD rate of 1:16.9 catches. You are probably right in that he has a very good chance of leading the team in catches, but how much is that worth?
  10. He is an underrated player for sure. In his 3 years in Detriot, he has had no less than 90 catches. 2 out of those 3 years he cleared 1000 yards (813 in the other). He is just not a heavy TD scorer (4,6,4) He is certainly more valuable in PPR leagues, but I would place him in the flex category for standard. This is mainly due to his game splits where he seems to under perform more often than not. In a weekly game, this hurts his stock a bit.
  11. This is great! This is exactly what I do with all of my players. It is good to set baselines and see how often those players fall within those parameters. It gives an accurate snapshot at how they perform to the competition. Well done.
  12. I would absolutely not take this deal. Keep what you got.
  13. This is personal preference to me and my specific scoring system. Since Odell came in the league, he averages 16.16 ppg, while Antonio averages 15.29 ppg. I see the Brandon Marshall addition being a good thing for Odell. It will not allow defenses to roll coverage his way near as often. It may also allow for "better" targets from Eli, in that it won't be erratic and forced targets that may be off target. As for Tyreek, I don't see him being as TD efficient as he was last year (same as Tevin Coleman). I do however see him getting more touches this coming year, as they really only started using him towards the latter part of the year. I do see a bounce back from Maclin in this offense also. I just see him finishing on the WR2/flex player border.
  14. For Robinson, I believe in his body of work. Last year was just a mess as he and Bortles did not connect like they had years prior. Their efficiency was down and I see them raising that back up a bit. Also, in his 2 games when Marrone took over at the end of the year, he moved him around and utilized his skill set a bit better (14 catches for 229 yards). He also has had a 25% target share which is great. For Alshon, this is both a homer pick (Eagles fan) and seeing the opportunity at hand. Wentz is a rising star, everyone in the lead knows it. I think he takes a step forward this year and Alshon is always a beast when he plays. Granted he missed some time the last 2 years, but this year it was due to suspension, so I am not going with the injury tag a lot of people take. He is a beast on the field who averages 15 yards a catch. The reason I placed Michael Thomas below them is for 2 reasons. #1 Being him having a 1 year sample size at WR, I prefer to see these guys put in 2 years in the league before I am ready to make him a 1st or early 2nd round pick, just personal preference. Secondly, Drew Brees does spread the ball around, in that he simply does not target a single WR more than 20% of his passes. So using that as a baseline, he has averaged 652 att the last 4 years. 20% of that is 130 targets, not a bad number, but certainly not 150+ as some of the other feature WRs get. M. Thomas also caught 75% of his targets last year, which is abnormally high.
  15. For reasons I had listed before. His consistency is a huge part of my ranking and personal feeling that he will go out with a bang this year. I don't believe that Cam has more weapons than Palmer at all actually. Palmer is the better thrower without question, but Cam does have his rushing (which they are hinting they want to reduce, which i am not totally buying.) Palmer has David Johnson (elite RB), Larry Fitzgerald (always reliable), John Brown (injured/sick last year, big play ability), J.J. Nelson (a little raw, but big play ability) as his top guys Cam has Jonathan Stewart (who doesn't catch many balls), McCaffrey (who will be a nice boost if Cam decides to check it down), Kelvin Benjamin (has a 51.5% catch rate) Devin Funchess (who has 844 total yards in 2 years), a rookie in Curtis Samuel who knows what they would get with him? and Greg Olsen who is a stud TE. I will take Palmers' weapons any day.