Unbreakable

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  1. Ok so the Rams attempted 536 passes last year. The past 2 years the Redskins attempted 607(2016) and 555(2015) Let us say we split that around 560 pass attempts this coming year (NFL average was 574) Stud WRs can expect anywhere around 22-27% of the targets, so that would give us 123-151 targets. Sammy has a career catch rate of 55.6% so that would give us something like 68-84 catches. If we go at his lowest YPC rate of 15.1(rookie year) 1026.8-1268.4 yards. I will take that as a good baseline range of what to expect from him.
  2. Right now he is my #5 QB. Last year, he had at least 300 yards or at least 2 TDs in 14 games! That is the consistency I look for, that number was only matched by Drew Brees.
  3. https://www.fantasypros.com/2017/08/how-to-budget-an-auction-draft-fantasy-football/
  4. Yes i can start 2 QBs per week.
  5. Thank you for your reply. Yea I certainly feel like my QBs will be carrying my team, which I am fine with having the superstar set. I am not too worried about AP, because Ingram has always split carries. He commands a huge portion of targets out of the backfield, which in PPR is huge. Hyde is certainly a ? with his health, but I love the system and he is the best talent they have. Agree 100% with the Bengals backfield, this was purely the next year or two investment. I am comfortable with my roster as of now, I would certainly want to add an upgrade at RB or WR, but I will likely wait until next offseason. I say this because the Garoppolo contract will expire and his value with increase a lot, so I will be able to offload one of my 3 QBs and still be fine.
  6. So this past weekend I had my first Auction Dynasty draft with a superflex and PPR scoring. QB/RBx2/WRx2/TE/SuperFLEX/FLEX/K/DST. QBs- Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Jimmy Garoppolo RBs- Mark Ingram, Carlos Hyde, Spencer Ware, C.J. Prosise, Jeremy Hill, Gio Bernard, Jeremy McNichols WRs- Brandin Cooks, Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin, Pierre Garcon, Rishard Matthews, Chris Godwin TEs- Kyle Rudolph, Coby Fleener, Gerald Everett K- Will Lutz DST- Eagles
  7. Does it really matter which downs he got those receptions, as long as he got them? If he isn't losing that 1st and 2nd down work, we can feel comfortable about similar usage.
  8. When I mention higher upside picks, I am not limiting that statement to the TE position. However, guys in the same position group who I will take over Ertz that have a later ADP are Ebron, Doyle, Fleener. Austin Hooper may be a sleeper at the TE position as well, but not a guy I am looking to draft. I am looking to take one of the surer bets at TE in the middle rounds this year, with one of the 3 names I listed above. Definitely, play action is beneficial for the pass game in general. I don't think I can limit it to just benefiting the TE position, rather than all the pass catchers. Hahaha I am sorry, but I had to laugh at the statement of that Cutler was a reason for Jeffreys success. Are you referring to his talent, or the amount of targets he gave him? If it is the talent, I will take Wentz going into his second year. As for the targets, Jeffery had 150 targets in 2013 and 145 targets in 2014. I see those as doable numbers as that would be 25% of last years' pass totals, which is a good number for a #1 WR. I can certainly see Ertz as a safety valve for Wentz. He has had 70+ catches the past 2 years, which is nice for a PPR league. He just does not offer very much upside in my opinion, because I do not see his target share rising and he is not an efficient TD scorer. I appreciate the dialogue, good points from you. We just see things differently, which is part of the beauty of this game.
  9. I hear you. It could be coincidence, it could be trend. That is for each one of us to decide for ourselves when we rank him this year. Those are good points about the QB, which may have resulted in a slow start. For me, I see a player who has shown the past few years to be unreliable in for half a season. It could very well be true that he takes that time to acclimate to the QB, and we can hope that continues into 2017. Which brings me to the additions. Carson Wentz threw the ball 607 times last year. I do not see that number rising dramatically and they added a true #1 WR, who will not only command more targets, but aslo the valuable redzone targets as well. Add into the fact that LeGarrette Blount will be used as a hammer at the goal line (most carries inside 5yd line during the past 2 years). With these factors, along with the developments of Matthews, Agholor and the addition of Smith.... this doesn't leave much, if at all, any improvement on Ertzs' numbers the past two years. He has averaged 77/835/3 the past 2 years, which is good yardage, but not a good TD output at all. For those reasons above, is why I do not rate him very highly, as I do not see much room for improvement. Perhaps he is more consistent throughout the year, but the past 2 years have not shown me that. Before he shows me that, I will gladly take higher upside picks in those rounds of the draft. I hate putting Eagles on my DND list, but he is very close to that in comparison to where he is going and where I see value around him.
  10. Here are just a couple numbers to look at when comparing the players' past 2 years. Amari Cooper has had 5 and 6 "clunkers" the past 2 years. Brandin Cooks has had 4 and 5 respectively. So 1 game difference year, no biggie. Amari PPG (standard with a bonus) has been 10.1 and 10.7, while Cooks has had 12.8 and 12.1 respectively. As far as targets go, Cooper has had 132 and 130 to Cooks, 117 and 129. Cooks just doesn't really need a whole lot of targets to produce. Now going to NE is the hold up, which I understand until we dive into the numbers. I fully expect Julian Edelman to stay a part of this offense, but I think Cooks will be their #1 guy. Tom Brady has averaged 604 passes per year (37.77 per game). There is plenty opportunity for Cooks to AT LEAST maintain 120 targets for the year, which I see no reason he cannot continue his production as we have seen the past 2 years.
  11. Ok gotcha. That makes better sense then, as I didn't know if that was the norm for your league. Well then yea, I would certainly go for that, as you benefit greatly.
  12. I am sorry, but to me this is flirting along the lines of collusion. If I were in that league, I wouldn't appreciate the fact that you guys are created a work around. If this is something that your league allows and has been done before, then that is fine. Otherwise this situation is a little sketchy to me. Again, this just may be something your league done, which is fine. Having said that I doubt you would get OBJ with those players being kept at #3. Obviously this is a good trade for the both of you, but I would go best player available and keep T.Y. as he has been more reliable between the two.
  13. One thing that is not being talked about very much is their defensive situation. I think (for me) this adds a bit in his favor. I am a huge believer in Wade Phillips, now he takes the reigns on a very talented group of players. This could lead to more favorable game scripts and field position based on turnovers and short possessions. As it has been said numerous times, he is locked into a significant workload. Plus his new coach will want to feed their best players and get support from the run game to get Goff comfortable. Right now I have Gurley projected for 285 carries for 1169 yards (4.1ypc) with 9 RuTDs, to go with 50 catches for 400 yards (8ypc) with another TD This adds up to 335 touches for 1569 yards and 10 TDs. To go with the risk of this offense not clicking, I think he is a solid if not great mid to late 2nd rd/ early 3rd round pick. There are players that are safer that will go ahead of him, but he offers solid floor with his workload. If he gets his efficiency up to average numbers (4.1 ypc) he will do well this year.
  14. This is the way the season goes for Ertz. He is waiver wire material the first half of the year, then blows up the second half. He has done it the past two years. 2015- First 10 games averaged 4/39 with 0 TDs, then final 5 games averaged 7/92 and had 2 TDs 2016- First 9 games averaged 4/41 with 1 TDs, then final 5 games averaged 8/89 and had 3 TDs For me, I will not draft Ertz as he will simply not be usable for the first half of the year. Add in to the fact that they signed a WR1 and a deep ball guy. Trey Burton was also involved in the pass game a bit more.
  15. What are the scoring settings?