mysonx3

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Everything posted by mysonx3

  1. There was already a thread, fyi
  2. Jason Vargas made his MLB debut in 2005. Since then, the MLB average HR/9 had been 1.03. Jason Vargas owns a career 1.07 mark. It hasn't gone above 1.05 since 2012. Jason Vargas does NOT have a problem with the longball.
  3. Why? He hasn't historically had a problem with the longball and he's in a pitcher friendly park
  4. Tyson Ross + Matt Harvey Thoracic Park
  5. I like PitcherList.com's On the Corner. Don't always agree with them but usually solid analysis. Haven't listened to that many though, so SSS
  6. I think this is less of a sure thing than people realize, but yeah De Leon is my guess. Watching hawkishly for other news though. Love Honeywell.
  7. Was just doing some research on him last night actually. I'll have a post at some point, but I think I owe @JFS179 a couple posts on other pitchers, haha. I agree with everything @Rabbit Maranville said. I love me a good changeup.
  8. Was at Tacoma Rainiers Media Day today, saw O'Neill take some sim game at bats, some BP and spoke with the manager (former Rookie of the Year Pat Listach). O'Neill related notes: Dude is YOKED. Like, seriously, stupidly shredded. Easy to see where the power comes from. In a sim game AB (couldn't tell who the pitcher was, the rosters they handed out didn't have numbers), hit a very, very low launch angle home run down the left field line. It was about as much of a line drive shot as you can get, yet strangely enough it didn't really look like he got all of it. Just muscled it. In BP he wasn't squaring it up too well but did have one pretty impressive opposite field shot. Listach raved about him. I thought he was just doing typical coach-speak and optimism, but his tone was decidedly less optimistic about Dan Vogelbach and DJ Peterson, so I'm taking this as a plus even though you can't really trust anything the coaches say.
  9. I'm actually okay with this. Keeps the price down, and it's very clear he's the next man up (whereas, say, Alex Wood, who I also like would have to compete to even be the next man up if he doesn't win a spot). I like that he's going to the bullpen instead of the minors like some of my other guys battling for a spot will if they lose out. I can get some stats out of him in the meantime.
  10. For Anderson getting hurt vs the Cubs going 6 deep to even be a competition you have to assume Anderson survives at least one start
  11. I think the Whiff boost is counteracted (at least in part) by the CalledStrike% drop - while 2015 was a career high at 18.14%, 2016 was a career low at 16.22%
  12. Oh, I agree defense matters I just think I would expect Happ to run a higher BABIP than his teammates but instead it was lower. I'd say .290-.295 would be a good BABIP projection? I was going to do all the math but I realized that Steamer was protecting a very similar BABIP to what I'm thinking along with K and BB rates that basically match last year, so I'll let them do some of the math for me. Based on a 20.0% K rate, a 7.6% BB rate and a .292 BABIP they project a 1.31 WHIP. I'm a little higher on his HR prevention than Steamer, though I will note he was slightly below average at avoiding dangerous flyballs. I also think their LOB% is too low (based largely on the HRs being too high). So I'll say 75% on that, which would give him about a 3.9 ERA. So I think 3.9 and a 1.31 WHIP are fair projections. Not sure how many wins that'd give him
  13. I don't think you can totally credit that BABIP to the defense. The Blue Jay pitching staff as a whole had some great BABIP indicators - ones that Happ doesn't share. 2nd highest IFFB% 6th highest Soft% 8th lowest LD% The team BABIP was part defense, part contact management. Happ only had one part of that equation going for him (defense), yet his BABIP was 15 points lower than the team's. It just doesn't add up to me
  14. Happ beat his FIP by a ton last year. I don't usually have a problem with guys who beat their FIPs, but I'm very skeptical when it's a guy who: 1. Doesn't get a ton of flyballs/pop-ups (aka the Chris Young method of FIP-beating) 2. Doesn't have a great contact management profile (aka the Tanner Roark method of FIP-beating) 3. Doesn't have a track record of beating his FIP
  15. Mostly subjective and narrative based I think. For example, I give Bosio some of the credit for Arrieta turning into an ace (and also some blame for him being a bust in Baltimore on their pitching coaches). I also give him some credit for Kyle Hendricks, along with credit to Hendricks himself obviously (the biggest slice in my opinion) and some blame to the industry for undervaluing the command & changeup profile. I also give Bosio some credit for the Cubs phenomenal contact management on a team level (that historic BABIP wasn't just their defense - they did a phenomenal job limiting hard contact as a team)
  16. Wonder how much a team would be willing to give up if a Searage or a Bosio was available via FA/trade? Heck, I wonder what kind of mega deal Epstein could get as a FA...
  17. Nobody is willing to pay what the Cubs pay Heyward, let alone give up something valuable for the right to do so. They're stuck with him unless they eat a good chunk of the contract
  18. Surprised you aren't lower on Dahl. His pitch type whiff rates are pretty ugly. 16.90% vs LHP Fourseamers 17.72% vs RHP Fourseamers 23.08% vs LHP Sliders 18.52% vs LHP Curveballs 20.65% vs RHP Changeups 20.99% vs RHP Sliders Overall 14.9 Whiff%
  19. Why would anyone give them upgraded pitching in exchange for a "giant waste of a contract"?
  20. I'd like to see a write up of Jean Segura. Having done some of the things you do on my own, I'm pretty sold but want to know if that's just my Mariners colored glasses