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boltup15 last won the day on November 5 2016

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  1. Jimmy Graham didn't bring down Baldwin's stock. Baldwin had a great season. Lockett was never going to have a good season. I touted that all season. Not enough targets to go around to all the touches. Jordan Reed's presence hurts Crowder because they do their work in the middle of the field. They share the same types of targets. Julius Thomas didn't do anything to ARob. ARob still had 150 targets. Bortles was awful. Marqise Lee Rose and took market share. Ryan Tannehill's attempts per game dropped by 7 last season. Jarvis Landry still had a 28.1% target share in the offense. It wasn't Parker. Now here we are with Odell and Marshall. The offense is broken down to Odell, Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard. Wills Tye and Vereen/Perkins I guess are there to steal targets as well. Giants have an improved defense but no run game. Eli still averaged 37 targets per game with their improved defense last year. TD's dropped a bit. Maybe BMarsh helps the chains move a bit. More red zone opportunities. Odell has had 38% of the TD's over the past two seasons. Seems like we are good for at least 10 TD's for Odell. 37 targets per game. 9-10 for Odell, 7 BMarshall, 6 for Shepard 14-15 for Vereen TE etc? 10 targets, 6 receptions per game (60% catch rate) at around 14 yards per reception. 1344 yard season. I dont see a situation where Brandon Marshall commands enough targets to make an impact to Odell's stats. There are 37 targets a game. And no other options besides Odell, Marshall, and Shepard. Maybe he sees a decrease in his TD's. Maybe he sees a slight decrease in his targets. But that's all I see. An increase in efficiency could offset the decrease in targets and TD's maybe not. I do expect Shepard to lose targets to Marshall. He was the #2 last year and is probably relagated as the #3 look.
  2. It's not a critique. It's pointing out that Gurley's stats got inflated. And I critiqued the big runs preseason of 2016. Not after the season ended. The amount of times Gurley had more than 2 yards was abysmal and cause for concern. The same thing is going to happen to Ajayi this year. And the same with Crowell. Go to Crowell '16 thread and see who was on the bandwagon preseason and then called his collapse. Sure Crowell finished as a top 15 RB but after week 4 he was not usable. The same thing happens every year.
  3. He could resume being a stud if he breaks off some long runs in 2017 like he did in 2015. The long runs padded his stats. He hasn't really been productive in two years because he's on a bad offense and doesn't get enough receptions to help pepper his stats like other RB's. But he is a safe RB to pick because his volume and status as the starter of the Rams offense are not and will not be in jeapardy. Dunbar should take some of the receiving work. I may draft Dunbar for his ppr upside. I will say I prefer Gurley to Ajayi, Howard, Ingram, Hyde, CJA, Ware and others that are At and around that tier. But that's not saying much.
  4. @FFCollusion I agree across the board with regards to Jordan Howard. But with regards to Melvin Gordon the main thing I disagree with is how you only analyzed Gordon on his carries and his touchdowns without talking about Gordon's presence in the receiving game over the last two years (yes, even playing behind ppr superstar Danny Woodhead). In 8 out of the 12 games he had at least 4 receptions at around 10 yards per touch. That's 8 ppr points solely from his presence in the receiving game. Sure he only played 12 games but he still had 254 carries. I don't agree with the idea that he is injury prone. I don't know how anyone in fantasy football could be able to say Melvin Gordon is more likely to get hurt than X RB just based on two seasons in the NFL. All RB's eventually get hurt when you log that many touches. What is big for Gordon is do they draft a RB who is capable of taking away significant receptions? Gordon was still getting targeted a very good amount when playing behind one of the best receiving backs of the decade with Woodhead during 2015. He still had 5 games with 3 receptions or more in 2015 which isn't a lot, but it's pretty good for a rookie who is playing with ppr superstar Danny Woodhead. Melvin Gordon still seems like a safe RB to take. Would I take him before Freeman? I'm not sure. Freeman has been very good for two years but will get less touches. Gordon will most likely have more volume while maybe being less efficient. The big downside scenario for Freeman is what happens if his efficiency drops while only maintaining 15 touches a game. His outlook turns bleak. Do I think that will happen? Not really. But it's a possibility. The downside scenario for Gordon is his volume drops. Upside scenario is his efficiency increases while mainting heavy volume especially in the receiving game.
  5. I love Gurley. I hate him this season. I don't let emotions cloud my judgement. Your take on the Rams is confusing. I don't see how anyone expects the Rams to have an offense that allows Gurley to get the TD's and ypc he needs. The o-line is still bad. The 49ers even have a better offense. Rams will be losing most games and will have negative game flow. Gurley has yet to be featured like he could in the receiving game and they just signed Dunbar to play the receiving role and will excel in the receiving role.
  6. That's just a poorly thought out take. You're saying the new upgrade at DC, Jeff Fisher being gone, and a new upgrade at LT is going to solve Todd Gurley's problems. You forgot about one huge problem with the team. Their offense. Why would I avoid DJ when he gets 6 receptions for 60 yards every game? He would still be an RB1 with 10-15 carries. That's why I liked DJ last year.
  7. At least if he was going in the late third or fourth at least you're buying into volume. But I noted this in early 2016 that big runs lifted Gurley's stats. Buying RB's on bad teams is not a winning recipe especially with your second draft pick. It makes sense to buy him in dynasty but redraft his ADP is inflated by those still seeing the mirage of his rookie season.
  8. Maybe Foreman could be Howard. We'll find out. There aren't too many good options for rookie RB's this season besides the Chiefs. I could see a year full of split backfields across the NFL.
  9. People have this fantasy that Gurley will come back again and become elite. He's still going in the second round rather than the late third, fourth where he should be going.
  10. Drafting a Def before the 14th round doesn't make sense. WW defenses win championships.
  11. I cant see Gill playing the Blount role though. He's not that big, but he's been really good these past two seasons or at least very efficient. As of right now I'm expecting the most confusing backfield that the Pats have ever had. White seems like the only option I would take in PPR in the late rounds that may be productive. I think these signings prove that the Pats do not view Dion Lewis as part of their future.
  12. I agree. He's going early and he's still the second RB to own on this team. I can't buy someone who is second to Freeman as early as he's going. It just doesn't make sense. He was too efficient last season and didn't have that many touches. I want volume in the 4th/5th round.
  13. Or you get a stud WR and then take the solid handcuffs in later rounds since RB's get injured all the time.
  14. Now that's an opinion. I'd rather hear that then arguing on what "good value" is. I respect your opinion.
  15. A defense... in round 7. No.