Alconbury

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  1. Tevin Coleman RB22 2017 Tevin Coleman RB18 2018 Omg you sure nailed that one guys
  2. Kinda has to gravitate towards that at this point due to basically the whole foundation being changed around him. We already know what DJ can do. But you need to dig way deeper than the regular extrapolating of last year's numbers or looking at the statistical trends for the position in the new scheme because in this case you can't even do that. Kingsbury's offense changed that much from year to year even in college since he creatively adapts scheme to personnel rather than personnel to scheme. Which is one reason I believe he can work out in the NFL by the way. Scheme to personnel happens to be a big positive for DJ as well, obviously. I do see a lot of promise regarding his 2019, which is further discussed in my last few posts above, but conventional wisdom still tells me to go for something more of a sure thing drafting at 6th. Might change come August regarding DJ, but I'm not quite there yet. Perhaps sacrificing the overall RB1 upside, which I do think is there for him in this offense, for someone who didn't get an unproven QB or a completely new system this offseason. Someone where you to a greater extent know what you are getting. You don't win a league from the value you happen to find in the first round but it can pose problem if you completely whiff on it, is my experience. Especially drafting top half. On the other hand, the Wilks/McCoy offense last year was absolutely horrendous, actually the worst graded in PFF history dating all the way back to 2006. Yes, worse than 2006 Tampa (second worst), worse than Jeff Fisher's Rams or any of the laughing stock Jags, Jets or Browns offenses of the last decade. DJ's situation with how they completely neglected what he is actually good (in his case, elite) at and kept running him into the middle without presenting any other threat to the defense whatsoever couldn't have been much worse really. And he still finished an RB1 in most leagues, albeit backend. If you look at it that way, hey maybe that is the safety you need right there. Comes down to if you believe in Kingsbury/Murray I guess. I'm not there yet with the research needed to even have a June first round board in my head, so can't really give you any other options at 6 with much to back it up with though. On the top of my head Melvin Gordon and maybe James Conner feels more safe though, Le'Veon Bell doesn't. Also really hard to project this offense in numbers as mentioned. But I do believe he will be an absolute cornerstone in it and especially be used a lot more as a receiver than most people imagine. The difference in creativity between Kingsbury and Wilks/McCoy is absolute night and day.
  3. In DeAndre Washington. This is the David Johnson.
  4. Yeah, I'm not saying he is or is not a good head coach because I don't really know, the jury is still out on that one. I was mainly pointing out a flaw in the argument. And well, Mike Leach is a legend, first of all. However, him being the pioneer of the air raid was virtually running a cheat code for many of those years before the others started to catch up and adapt. The other teams weren't capable of keeping up with Tech in a shootout so Leach kinda didn't even have to play defense. Few years later the big programs had incorporated Leach's spread concepts but was running it with five star recruits instead. Early 2000's the amount of college teams averaging 35+ points per game were way way less than you see today. Amount of college teams averaging 35+ ppg, Leach's first four years (2000-2003) vs Kingsbury final four (2015-2018), just to paint a picture (stats from mcubed.net): 2000: 14 teams (Tech PPG: 25.4) 2001: 14 (33.5) 2002: 12 (36.9) 2003: 13 (42.5) ..... 2015: 31 (45.1) 2016: 33 (43.7) 2017: 21 (34.3) 2018: 22 (37.3) But yeah, sidetracking territory. Good coach or not, the outlook of Kingsbury managing to put up a lot of yards and points thus supporting a good fantasy season for David Johnson looks quite promising either way.
  5. Errr, in a discussion about trends in his offensive scheme and how it could affect DJ it is highly relevant to understand he's always greatly adjusted his scheme to his roster's talents. Way more relevant than most silly narrow-minded playground arguments that gets thrown around here. That he is a loser is such a tired argument. You even shoot it down yourself a few rows later. While ill-informedly stating he couldn't beat college defenses though so I guess you ironically managed to fail that as well anyway. Losing record is actually a somewhat flawed argument even when talking Kingsbury the head coach, not only Kingsbury the offensive mind, where it is close to irrelevant. College football isn't an even playing field like the NFL with its drafting system. Money, location, pedigree of program are just as important as actual coaching there. It's interesting to reflect on why college coaches who come into the NFL rarely succeeds. What is the type that almost exclusively gets hired? Famous coaches from the big, wealthy schools, on the premise that winning record automatically means good coach that will translate. Food for thought. To consistently put up the offensive numbers Kingsbury has done with a midlevel school like Texas Tech is impressive. Defense isn't his thing but no one claims this and the Cardinals know this. I'm pretty sure Vance Joseph will pull close to all the strings on the defensive side of the ball. But again, it's close to irrelevant when discussing Kingsbury the offensive mind, anyway. I won't even comment on the bigger, faster, stronger argument. Just stupid, and already taken care of by Flyman and RMJ.
  6. One of Kingsbury's strengths is that he has always been good with mixing and matching his scheme to fit his personnel, and not the other way around. Making it pretty much impossible at this point to draw any statistical conclusions or make predictions about how it's going to look, really. Was even hard from year to year in college due to the high turnover of players. The only time he had a good running back, DeAndre Washington, he was used though. Washington averaged 17.92 rushes and 3.15 receptions per game in a 7-6 season, pretty evenly spread out with above 20 rush attempts six times and not only in wins. 144 total yards per game rushing and receiving. When he had Coutee and Batson as dynamic slot receivers, he incorporated stuff like short decoy routes for the outside receivers to scheme the slots open. 2018 it looked different again having the big bodies outside in Vasher and Wesley after Coutee and Batson had left. And so on. Kingsbury stated several times already, as recent as this week, that they don't even know themselves how the offense is going to look yet. Of course they have an idea but will be testing concepts all through OTA's and camp. What often gets lost in the shuffle with every writer hyping the air raid by the way, is that many of the spread concepts has already been in the NFL for a few years now in different shapes. What absolutely will remain however is his core concept of adjusting to his players' talents. DJ is easily the biggest and most unique (non-QB, both Mahomes and Murray are/seems pretty damn special) talent he's had at his disposal. He might even be the biggest receiver weapon they have at this point. Kingsbury is a great, super creative offensive mind. I wouldn't worry about DJ a bit.
  7. Still not comfortable with DJax as anything other than hit or miss flex you throw in the underdog weeks where you have to take a chance to win. Absolutely not as every week flex unless in deeper leagues. Either way, pretty good chance of a bit of a bounce back season for him statistically this year. Which still means he will have stinkers due to his role ofc, but the games on the lower end of the spectrum will likely come a little bit less often. He just never got the chemistry going with Winston, who has a gunslinger mentality but happens to be one of the worst in the league at deep passes. Slightly problematic combination. The QB split last year sums it up pretty well; 14 receptions on 34 targets (41.2%) with Winston, 27 receptions on 38 targets (71.1%) with Fitzpatrick. Wentz probably won't match Fitz' crazy hot streak of deep game (fantasy point statistical) magic from last season, but he did take big steps in his deep game 2018 compared to previous years and is miles better than Jameis Winston at this point. The Wentz-DJax connection has already been mentioned by several writers during OTA's as well. Even with fantasy QB1 pace Fitz in the five games he played all four quarters, DJax did put up two 30-40 yard stinkers, mind you. He will remain a fantasy headache, but on a ~15 spot roster definitely a decent tool to have on the back end in some situations. I'd be somewhat comfortable with him as my WR5 or maybe, maybe WR4. Looking at current ADP I guess it's fine with him at WR52 and pick ~135 but there are still a couple of guys going later I rather have due to higher league winning potential.
  8. Did pick Henry who scored 2.5 points more than DJ and I won by 0.8. Derrick Henry and his cleats forever in my heart ❤️
  9. 12 team 0.5PPR QB Mahomes RB Barkley RB Chubb WR Davante WR Juju TE Kelce FLEX DJ (but am really really contemplating Derrick Henry) DST Bears K Zuerlein Michel, Ingram, Henry, Jamaal Williams Golladay, (Josh Gordon)
  10. Well, if you want to go down advanced metrics route, first and foremost makes a little more sense to compare value per play only, since total value is highly connected to amount of targets obviously. Marvin Jones was WR3 as you said and Golden Tate WR27. Second, if you scroll further down that page you will see Golladay in the list of players with less than 49 targets (just outside the real list with his 48 targets). Value per play of 21.9% which with just two more targets would have landed him at WR8 overall just behind Tyreek Hill. As a rookie. Food for thought. Jones and Tate are good, totally agree. But Kenny is better.